【NaNa说美股】20260624这次绝对不原谅他555…！

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大家好

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欢迎回来到来说美股

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韩国股市今天率先反弹

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COSPP指数从昨天的坑里爬出来

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收涨3%点

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三大工程SK海力士表示

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计划最快7月10号就登陆纳斯达克

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筹集至多294亿美元

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以扩大它的全球投资者基础

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所得资金呢将会全数投入

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AI晶片与高频宽济一体

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就是HBM的这个产能扩建

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这不仅会大幅超越阿里巴巴

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在2014年创下的二百十八亿美元记录哈

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更有望成为全球史上最大规模的ADR上市嗯

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承销团呢也已经选定了

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由美银花旗

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高盛和摩根大通

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等华尔街顶级投行们共同主导承销

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就拜码头

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这些大佬们全都一一拜到了

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阵容豪华

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公告发布之后

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就提振了投资者的情绪

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昨天那个sche research还放谣言

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说

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海力士的ADR上市延迟

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今天公司就立即破谣了

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但是美股这一边呢

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半导体板块在美光科技财报与PC数据出炉之前

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观望情绪浓厚

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场内资金躲到其他板块避险

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所以大盘整体还能够撑着美债收益率走低呢

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给美股带来的支撑

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三大股指今天收势变化不大

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标普与纳指受到科技股的拖累

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小幅收跌

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而道指小幅收涨

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10年期美债收益率今天是大幅回落呀

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霍尔木兹海峡维持开放

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推动了油价持续走低

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使得通胀压力大幅缓解

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美联储加息的紧迫性呢也随之这个降温呃

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但是现在都认为哈

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我是这低通胀的承诺呢

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有助于支撑长期国债收益率

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并且压缩期限溢价

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而川普今年发帖指责

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那些石油公司们

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没有将油价的下跌传导到加油站零售价

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因为通胀其实是有传导效应的哈

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并不是说你油价下跌了

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其他的商品也一定会跟着这个降价

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但是川普为呢为了赢得中期选举

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他肯定是要这个呃控制物价

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美光科技现在盘后公布了财报

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公司业绩不出意外的炸裂

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Q3营收四百十四.600000000美元

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净利润282.4亿美元

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Q4指引各项数据呢也全面超出市场预期

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预计Q4调整后营收

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490亿到五百十亿美元之间

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调整后毛利率高达86%

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调整后每股收益预计在30~32美元之间

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HBA4已经开始向呃客户平台进行大批量出货

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H b m41

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预计将会于2027日历年实现这个量产

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就是明年哈

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预计存储供应紧张状况呢

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将会持续到2027年日历年后

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而且目前还没有嗯明确看到供应

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改善需求的时间点

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这一番话证伪了此前关于SK海力士放缓

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HBM4扩产带来的猜测

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收益预计将会在2027年达到顶峰

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然后才会下降

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而股价呢往往会领先利润见顶

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因此美观股价高点可能会早于盈利高点出现

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但是那也是可以等到2027年再担心

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现在2026年好日子还可以持续几个季度

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所以现在盘后股价大涨了

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期权市场在此之前呢已经压住美光科技财报后

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股价单日波动幅度大约14%

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对应市值变化超过1500亿美元

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sport ga数据显示

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压住美光科技股价

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季后上涨的看涨期权溢价要明显高于put

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就看跌哈

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所以看涨情绪是非常浓厚的

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有神秘买家花了大约6100万美元

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买入了今年7月17号到期行驶价嗯

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430美元的美观的看涨期权

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这种操作性质接近

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就直接持有股份

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在期权隐含波动率极高的时候嗯

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这种深度实值合约呢能够有效地减少业绩后

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因为波动率坍缩

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这个面临的价格缩水风险

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但与此同时嗯

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根据另外机构监测显示哈

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在美观科技财报前

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有两名链上主力做空巨鲸

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在hypoly create这个平台相继开立了美观的空单

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合计规模呢达到830万美元

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建仓均价大约为1071美元

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清算线位于1470美元

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其中有一名是知名交易员CBB

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他呢曾因为在2025年公开组织猎杀

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数亿美元规模的比特币空头巨鲸事件

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受到了广泛的关注

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被誉为列金小队的领队

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KOLCPP从6月10号就开始做空美观科技了

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嗯如果在这个财报前

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他有获利止盈的话

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那没事

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但是如果还持有的话

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看这个股价盘后走势

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目前是多头获胜了哈

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野村证券指出

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嗯美观的业绩

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目前在股票指数期权市场的事件溢价呢

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已经高于最近一次美联储议息了

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甚至可以与英伟达过往业绩前的市场关注度

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可以相比哈

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将在相当程度上会左右全球科技股的短期走势

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如果明天股价的波动幅度只有5%的话

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那么对于嗯股市未必会产生实际的影响

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就是美观

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如果涨跌只有5%以内

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那对大盘影响不大嗯

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但若是这个美观

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明天的升跌幅度达到10%以上的话

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那就可能会让科技股在未来的一到两周

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出现上涨或下跌趋势

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就取决于美光科技的激活反应

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再来看标普500指数

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目前多空呢正在激烈争夺这条50日均线

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多头今天拉到缺口与10日均线后

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信心不足啊

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反弹动能消退

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导致指数呢重新回落到50日均线

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日K再次收出了一根带有较长上影线的阴线

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十字星

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美光科技的股价现在盘后涨了哈

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如果明天能够继续保持强势

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就涨幅10%以上的话

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那么指数也有希望就反弹

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或许有机会回补掉这个缺口

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若是缺口

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连续两三个交易日都没有被回补掉的话啊

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那就不太妙了

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将会强化这个下跌动态

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所以嗯明天哈非常重要

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业务有PC数据

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又有这个美观科技的季候

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市场反应嗯

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观察明天的呃走势

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就基本上可以知道未来短期的这一个方向了

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由于美元指数强势反攻

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风靡市场

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两年之久的贬值交易正在瓦解

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所谓的贬值交易指的是增持黄金

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比特币等资产

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规避美元

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这个策略也是过去两年嗯

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美国金融市场的主要趋势之一

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美国债务规模激增

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加剧了人们对于美元购买力下降的担忧

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但是现在美国经济强劲

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就业市场稳健

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美联储的鹰派转向呢更是进一步推高了美元

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所以比特币黄金都走熊了嗯

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本月迄今全球规模最大的黄金ETF

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资金流出量已经接近10亿美元

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自2月末以来的话

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那累计资金流出规模已经达到了

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120亿美元

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创下2013年以来四个月最大撤资记录

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只要这个市场还维持着加息预期哈

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那美元就会继续保持强势

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个股方面

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fox it数据显示

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美观与英伟达已经成为标普500指数

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第二季这个盈利增长的重要贡献者

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如果剔除掉这两家公司

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标普500预期盈利增速呢

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将会有22%降到14.9%

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可是美观的股价

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年初以来涨了265%呃

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因为它今年年初以来却只涨了6.8%

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这个不符合他做出的贡献呀

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不仅跑输了标普500余纳只

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更是被费棒也甩出了三条街哈

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市值现在已经跌破5万亿美元了

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所以咱们等了半年

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原来他在AI菜单上不在餐桌上呀

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公司今天开法会

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黄老板说话动听

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然并卵呀

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股价照样吃狗屎

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自5月14号高点236.26美元

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持续回落哈

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收盘前都没能够拉回去

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下跌趋势明显嗯

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上方月均线与50日均线呢

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形成了双均线压力带

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中短期空投可以说是占据了呃较大的优势

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可能股价还会进一步下探

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虽然说美观科技先这个股价上涨

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或许能让英伟达的股价也反抽一下

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但是什么时候股价能够收盘

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站稳这条月均线上方结构才能够改善

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如果是在月均线下方的话

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那所有的上涨都是反抽来看待达子呢

215
00:09:54,470 --> 00:09:55,710
自己已经废了

216
00:09:55,710 --> 00:09:59,649
碰瓷达子的CBIS股价更是狂泻了10%

217
00:09:59,649 --> 00:10:00,669
9.5哈

218
00:10:00,669 --> 00:10:03,830
都已经跌破IPO发行价185美元了

219
00:10:03,830 --> 00:10:05,099
但还是太贵

220
00:10:05,099 --> 00:10:08,578
当初他IPO定价一开始是120

221
00:10:08,578 --> 00:10:10,379
130美元的结果

222
00:10:10,379 --> 00:10:14,399
因为被华尔街无量机构们分抬身价

223
00:10:14,399 --> 00:10:17,659
公司接二连三的就提高了IPO价格

224
00:10:17,659 --> 00:10:20,389
最后居然拉到了185美元

225
00:10:20,389 --> 00:10:22,370
真是不把散户们当人哈

226
00:10:22,370 --> 00:10:23,950
当成猪来宰了

227
00:10:23,950 --> 00:10:25,049
人傻钱多

228
00:10:25,049 --> 00:10:25,950
速来啊

229
00:10:25,950 --> 00:10:29,549
昨天WEDBUSH才刚刚灿多270美元呢

230
00:10:29,549 --> 00:10:31,679
这垃圾机构害人不浅

231
00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:34,620
谷歌股价呢今天早盘的时候还反弹

232
00:10:34,620 --> 00:10:36,840
标普道琼斯指数公司表示

233
00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:39,409
谷歌将会从6月29号起

234
00:10:39,409 --> 00:10:41,970
取代VERIZON成为蓝筹股

235
00:10:41,970 --> 00:10:44,889
道琼斯工业平均指数的成分股

236
00:10:44,889 --> 00:10:47,980
所以这个股价原本涨的还好好的

237
00:10:47,980 --> 00:10:50,019
结果午后呢突然传来利空

238
00:10:50,019 --> 00:10:51,159
股价又掉了

239
00:10:51,159 --> 00:10:52,320
彭博报道称

240
00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:56,600
谷歌又有两名顶尖AI研究人员正计划离职

241
00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:58,230
跳槽到ENTROPK

242
00:10:58,230 --> 00:11:02,389
这个消息就进一步加剧了外界对于谷歌在AI嗯

243
00:11:02,389 --> 00:11:05,809
领域这个领先地位可能被削弱的担忧

244
00:11:05,809 --> 00:11:07,889
这已经不是在挖墙角了哈

245
00:11:07,889 --> 00:11:09,169
是要挖楼了

246
00:11:09,169 --> 00:11:11,929
这所谓叔可忍婶不可忍呀

247
00:11:11,929 --> 00:11:14,159
建议谷歌明天就宣布哈

248
00:11:14,159 --> 00:11:17,039
将token跳楼价立减80%

249
00:11:17,039 --> 00:11:18,889
把整个桌子给掀了

250
00:11:18,889 --> 00:11:20,350
随着油价走低

251
00:11:20,350 --> 00:11:22,649
航空邮轮股呢集体上涨

252
00:11:22,649 --> 00:11:24,649
皇家加勒比邮轮RCL

253
00:11:24,649 --> 00:11:26,480
今天涨了3.69%

254
00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:30,460
阿拉斯加航空ALK股价涨了4.78%

255
00:11:30,460 --> 00:11:32,450
瑞银发布研报指出

256
00:11:32,450 --> 00:11:34,409
航空燃油价格在过去一个月

257
00:11:34,409 --> 00:11:36,230
已经下跌了约30%

258
00:11:36,230 --> 00:11:38,549
即时票价上升

259
00:11:38,549 --> 00:11:40,730
旅游需求仍然保持稳固

260
00:11:40,730 --> 00:11:42,190
所以这些公司都很赚钱了

261
00:11:42,190 --> 00:11:45,049
现在点名美国航空AAAL

262
00:11:45,049 --> 00:11:48,759
还有美联航UAL为他的首选呃

263
00:11:48,759 --> 00:11:51,200
并且呢重申对达美航空

264
00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:54,669
西南航空以及阿拉斯加航空的买入评级

265
00:11:54,669 --> 00:11:56,809
市场现在流动性收紧

266
00:11:56,809 --> 00:12:00,009
水浅王八多靠腰鼓来充当气氛

267
00:12:00,009 --> 00:12:04,769
组快餐连锁企业WEN股价今天日内剧烈波动

268
00:12:04,769 --> 00:12:06,599
一度涨超41%

269
00:12:06,599 --> 00:12:08,458
收盘涨幅收窄了一半

270
00:12:08,458 --> 00:12:13,589
原因呢是这个股票被美股散户大军们给盯上了

271
00:12:13,589 --> 00:12:15,769
在散户炒股论坛上哈

272
00:12:15,769 --> 00:12:19,578
相关的讨论激增背后其实是有游资推动

273
00:12:19,578 --> 00:12:21,678
将这一家快餐连锁店呢

274
00:12:21,678 --> 00:12:24,730
描述为一个遭受了重创的消费品牌

275
00:12:24,730 --> 00:12:26,350
空头仓位高

276
00:12:26,350 --> 00:12:28,730
约有23%的自由流通股

277
00:12:28,730 --> 00:12:30,309
都处于卖空状态

278
00:12:30,309 --> 00:12:32,669
怂恿散户们掏钱买入

279
00:12:32,669 --> 00:12:33,318
逼空

280
00:12:33,318 --> 00:12:34,318
过去一年里

281
00:12:34,318 --> 00:12:36,158
由于受到高通胀冲击

282
00:12:36,158 --> 00:12:38,659
消费者减少了外出就餐支出

283
00:12:38,659 --> 00:12:41,779
所以很多餐饮股都跌的亲妈都认不出来

284
00:12:41,779 --> 00:12:42,879
WEN也一样

285
00:12:42,879 --> 00:12:43,970
股价腰斩

286
00:12:43,970 --> 00:12:45,850
公司美国同店销售额

287
00:12:45,850 --> 00:12:48,730
在今年一季度下降了7.8%

288
00:12:48,730 --> 00:12:50,809
较去年同期下降2.8%

289
00:12:50,809 --> 00:12:52,879
的表现又进一步恶化了

290
00:12:52,879 --> 00:12:53,879
近年来哈

291
00:12:53,879 --> 00:12:57,320
was three bet其实也多次掀起密股热潮

292
00:12:57,320 --> 00:12:59,659
不断地寻找新的炒作目标

293
00:12:59,659 --> 00:13:02,210
比如嗯去年的时候

294
00:13:02,210 --> 00:13:05,059
甜甜圈制造3DNUT

295
00:13:05,059 --> 00:13:07,019
还有这个房屋买卖平台

296
00:13:07,019 --> 00:13:07,620
Open door

297
00:13:07,620 --> 00:13:09,539
都曾因为散户集中买入

298
00:13:09,539 --> 00:13:10,578
股价暴涨

299
00:13:10,578 --> 00:13:13,730
但是并不是每一个都能够从严

300
00:13:13,730 --> 00:13:15,970
当年game stop的狂热

301
00:13:15,970 --> 00:13:19,970
很多这些秘密不都是几天爆拉之后就出货

302
00:13:19,970 --> 00:13:21,509
留下最后接盘的

303
00:13:21,509 --> 00:13:22,740
吊在山顶上

304
00:13:22,740 --> 00:13:24,379
太阳能服务33万

305
00:13:24,379 --> 00:13:25,299
股价呢飙升

306
00:13:25,299 --> 00:13:27,059
遇到年线阻力后回落

307
00:13:27,059 --> 00:13:29,220
但是仍收涨12.5%

308
00:13:29,220 --> 00:13:32,000
公司宣布联手特斯拉和renew home

309
00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:35,259
为数据中心和公用事业公司提供电力

310
00:13:35,259 --> 00:13:37,340
这三家公司达成了一项协议

311
00:13:37,340 --> 00:13:41,399
将共同建立一个可以提供16级瓦电力的平台

312
00:13:41,399 --> 00:13:44,480
这平台呢会整合sl run和特斯拉

313
00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:47,110
运营的数10万个家庭电池

314
00:13:47,110 --> 00:13:51,779
以及由renew home管理的800万个智能温控器

315
00:13:51,779 --> 00:13:55,639
这些电力资源将会按照先到先得的原则

316
00:13:55,639 --> 00:13:57,649
向数据中心开发商开放

317
00:13:57,649 --> 00:13:58,330
同时呢

318
00:13:58,330 --> 00:14:02,110
还将会向美国最大的电网运营商PGM

319
00:14:02,110 --> 00:14:03,669
提供电力支持

320
00:14:03,669 --> 00:14:06,629
最近反正越来越多的可再生能源公司

321
00:14:06,629 --> 00:14:09,250
纷纷转型为AI数据中心供电了

322
00:14:09,250 --> 00:14:12,759
希望能够搭上这个AI财富列车

323
00:14:12,759 --> 00:14:15,279
嗯V1就是一个最成功的例子哈

324
00:14:15,279 --> 00:14:17,379
同行们看了都要羡慕哭了

325
00:14:17,379 --> 00:14:21,100
燃料电池能源FCEL也不甘落后

326
00:14:21,100 --> 00:14:24,899
公司今天宣布与fit energy usa合作

327
00:14:24,899 --> 00:14:29,320
为数据中心提供最高达到380兆瓦的电力

328
00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:30,240
供应大单

329
00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:31,440
根据协议呢

330
00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,870
fit energy已经就首批30嗯

331
00:14:34,870 --> 00:14:38,809
这个兆瓦的电力项目支付了即时预付款

332
00:14:38,809 --> 00:14:42,210
该项目计划于今年晚些时候开始交付

333
00:14:42,210 --> 00:14:43,509
受此消息提振

334
00:14:43,509 --> 00:14:46,169
FCEL股价日内高开低走

335
00:14:46,169 --> 00:14:48,080
盘出涨超14%

336
00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:50,960
结果尾盘回吐了日内全部涨幅

337
00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:53,000
还倒跌了1.12%

338
00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:55,859
所以也不是每一个都能够学be

339
00:14:55,859 --> 00:14:58,859
主要是现在市场这个流动性紧缩哈

340
00:14:58,859 --> 00:15:01,740
支撑不起这些股价就走太高

341
00:15:01,740 --> 00:15:03,980
U贝尔股价呢大涨了6%

342
00:15:03,980 --> 00:15:08,879
前任股神佩洛西披露最新的期权多头持仓嗯

343
00:15:08,879 --> 00:15:10,980
5月29号他出手

344
00:15:10,980 --> 00:15:14,220
同时买了200张英特尔和UBER的远期

345
00:15:14,220 --> 00:15:18,710
看看涨期权都是2027年3月19号到期

346
00:15:18,710 --> 00:15:21,159
行权价呢都是50美元

347
00:15:21,159 --> 00:15:25,379
英特尔的持仓估值大约100到500万美元之间

348
00:15:25,379 --> 00:15:29,119
而UBER呢大约在50到100万美元之间嗯

349
00:15:29,119 --> 00:15:30,759
5月29号买入那一天

350
00:15:30,759 --> 00:15:33,438
微博股价还在70美元附近换弹哈

351
00:15:33,438 --> 00:15:35,250
今天涨到74美元

352
00:15:35,250 --> 00:15:36,889
扣掉时间溢价

353
00:15:36,889 --> 00:15:38,210
佩洛西手里这一点

354
00:15:38,210 --> 00:15:41,169
UBER期权的利润只能算是塞个牙缝吧

355
00:15:41,169 --> 00:15:43,389
还没有真正到肥的时候

356
00:15:43,389 --> 00:15:45,590
英特尔那边5月29号

357
00:15:45,590 --> 00:15:48,909
股价呢在一百十五到126美元之间震荡

358
00:15:48,909 --> 00:15:51,580
现在涨到132美元嗯

359
00:15:51,580 --> 00:15:52,379
赚了一些

360
00:15:52,379 --> 00:15:54,360
但还不算是大肉

361
00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:57,299
自从川普亲自画K线之后啊

362
00:15:57,299 --> 00:16:01,460
这一位国会山前股神的光环已经褪色了不少哈

363
00:16:01,460 --> 00:16:04,870
呃这次不知道是不是有什么内幕让他出手

364
00:16:04,870 --> 00:16:06,690
未来的破产股

365
00:16:10,339 --> 00:16:13,019
由于二手车市场行情低迷

366
00:16:13,019 --> 00:16:16,190
公司5月份处置车辆呢出现了亏损

367
00:16:16,190 --> 00:16:19,309
而4月份的车辆出售尚能够实现盈利

368
00:16:19,309 --> 00:16:21,879
公司下调了第二季度一比他预期

369
00:16:21,879 --> 00:16:25,190
并且还宣布计划发行1亿美元的普通股

370
00:16:25,190 --> 00:16:29,429
这个呃只能够呼唤wall street bet上面的游资大佬们

371
00:16:29,429 --> 00:16:31,070
组织散户来逼空

372
00:16:31,070 --> 00:16:33,190
才能够拯救这家公司了哈

373
00:16:33,190 --> 00:16:35,330
行今天我们就说到这里

374
00:16:35,330 --> 00:16:39,818
那明天盘前呢有PC数据公布

375
00:16:39,818 --> 00:16:41,599
至于美观科技的话

376
00:16:41,599 --> 00:16:43,658
如果持续保持强势

377
00:16:43,658 --> 00:16:45,158
那市场就没有问题

378
00:16:45,158 --> 00:16:48,779
最怕的就是学那个衰仔打子哈

379
00:16:48,779 --> 00:16:50,379
财报日高开低走

380
00:16:50,379 --> 00:16:51,179
那就不妙了

381
00:16:51,179 --> 00:16:55,600
反正盯着美观科技的股价走势就可以了哈行

382
00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:57,179
那我们明天见拜拜

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