【Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D】17倍估值，何时买入META？

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对投资者来说是个好日子

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我正在更新我们的内在价值模板

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接下来要分析的是Meta（Facebook）

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这也是我被多次要求分析的

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如果我们观察这家公司

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市场表现非常出色

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但Meta下跌了18%

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接近19%

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市盈率甚至更低

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我们将讨论这并非21倍

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而是17倍

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公司仍在持续强劲增长

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因此需要更新分析

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我们将从财报中审视业务

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从未来展望

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内在价值计算

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并将结果放入四象限图

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以评估现在投资Meta的风险与收益

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如果你喜欢这个视频

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请点赞支持

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同时查看下方描述中的链接

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获取我的免费研究平台或最便宜的券商

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现在立即开始分析业务

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近年来实现巨大增长

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他们在广告业务上全力推进

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效果显著

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盈利能力很强

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但Reality Labs等部门仍在亏损

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与Facebook和Instagram的极高利润率形成对比

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这也是我观察到的，我拥有Facebook

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我偶尔用Facebook进行钓鱼

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类似活动

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但每次登录时

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都会看到大量广告拥挤

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算法推荐效果极佳

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因此你可以

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当你滚动浏览时

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每隔一两秒就出现广告

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人们观看这些广告

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观看所有内容

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因此盈利能力很强

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因此Meta

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这种盈利能力推动股价从2023年大幅上涨

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但此次下跌让我联想到几年前的那次下跌

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因为广告收入

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营收

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所有数据仍在增长

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我们需要小幅调整每股收益

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这是一次真正的偶发事件

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所得税准备

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因为这张漂亮的大账单

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没有这个的话这就是利润

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当我们计算facebook的市盈率时

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市盈率

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追踪链接

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十二个月

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利润为四十亿美元

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市盈率为十七点

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二十九

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当然股价下跌了

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由于资本支出大幅增长

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这与我们两年前买入facebook时讨论的情况类似

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facebook的股价仅为99.20美元

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正如视频下方讨论的那样

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这是因为马克全力押注元宇宙

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甚至将公司名称从facebook改为meta

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却因此损失了八十亿美元

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专注于盈利能力

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专注于广告业务增长

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结果股价大幅上涨

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如今马克不想再这样了

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那个独自坐着的男孩想与大公司一起投资AI

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他计划投入一百四十亿美元

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于2026年投入AI基础设施

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因为这些投资不用于facebook

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他们将出售给其他公司

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因此他们在投资

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希望未来能被使用

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但实际他们并不确定

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如果失败像meta那样

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将直接放弃

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损失两百亿至三百亿

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就这样结束

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现在又回到facebook

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现状如此

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如果运作良好

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则成功

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用户数量

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首次出现下降

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但这太疯狂了

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三十五亿人

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占人类四成，简直疯狂

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经营现金流表现优异

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现在他们加大了投资力度

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自由现金流降至四十亿美元

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与市值对比

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是的

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市盈率仍是十七

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但当前股价自由现金流比率达四十倍

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五十秒

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但谈到现金流时

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他们总是可以

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如果发现行不通

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他们可以停止

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他们会有一些死

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某些义务

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类似的事情

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但如果他们停止

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那我们就回到一个盈利公司

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应享有高于十七倍的市盈率

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鉴于惊人的增长

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然而还有非常重要的一点

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如果接下来三年

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四年持续投入资本

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然后取消

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这将在净利润中通过折旧和摊销体现

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而非利润本身

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但他们需偿还债务等

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资本支出持续时间越长

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若无成果

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那就是风险

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但目前良好的收益

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现在我们来看内在价值表

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顺便说一下，您可通过下方描述中的链接下载

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在我的免费投资课程中

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我正在更新

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另外

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其他一些公司

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请查看相关视频

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我们现在进入Meta每股收益

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正如我们所说

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三十三

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若未来十年保持八%增长

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我预期十%

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这个国家

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这就是我的预期回报率

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市盈率二十

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则内在价值为五百四十二

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接近股价

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因此现在Facebook的回报率约九%

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充满活力

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若持续以十%增长

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十二%两位数增长

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假设市盈率稍有改善

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则内在价值提高五十%

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现在针对Facebook

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最坏情况

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安全边际

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低增长率

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糟糕的终端多重

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这将引发一场灾难，就像我们在2022年看到的那样

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所以别告诉我

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这不可能

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总体而言九个百分点的回报还算合理

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如果我修改九这个数字

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这样我们正好达到九个百分点的Facebook回报率，不错

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或许不算卓越

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但也不算出色

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如果我们比较这里的Facebook股价在零点

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九十二

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我们的内在价值与股票价格

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可以看出这九个百分点的回报与微软、英伟达相当

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当然这取决于你如何看待增长

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还有其他星座公司

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最终取决于债务情况

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也取决于增长情况

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阿里巴巴

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取决于增长情况的安永

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取决于具体情况

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但在那些定价更好的股票中

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所以关键问题在于企业

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这些企业十年后会是什么样子

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它具有极强的网络效应

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完美利用这种短期多巴胺心理刺激

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人们从这里那里获得的快感简直疯狂

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但这就是我们世界的现状

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未来可能会有AI颠覆者

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也会具备同样的网络效应

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但去除广告

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借助这个

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借助这些一切皆有可能

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是的

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马特有法律手段阻止它

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或者类似措施

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但技术本身也是Facebook的优势

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但也存在风险

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这个网络模式令人惊叹

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简直不可思议

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这是否仅限于老年人

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但Facebook更受老年人青睐

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年轻人用Instagram

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因此我认为Facebook的关键风险是我们之前讨论的资本支出

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还有不确定性

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这些都是二十年前成立的科技公司

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在当前环境迅速崛起

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谁能预料十年后会发生什么

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股价下跌了

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所以购买这类股票

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当然，越低越好

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越好

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或许在灾难性场景下

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将跌至十倍市盈率

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如果马克持续支出已发生

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那将是绝佳机会

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如果我们看华尔街

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所有人都列为强烈买入

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六十三位分析师中有四十九位列为强烈买入

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如果我们看他们的目标价

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有些定在平均一千八百

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所以平均五十%

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这相当于

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假设我们的激进内在价值计算

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你可以在这里看到

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他们只是跟随股价

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但尚未开始下调目标

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因为大家都在押注AI叙事

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催化剂

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有人认为这不是牛市逻辑

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因为他们将AI云服务租给其他公司

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他们仍拥有前所未有的

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AI定价权

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得益于AI，Facebook的空头逻辑

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资本支出

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全年持续资本支出

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Meta首次季度环比下降

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从2025年Q2到2026年Q1

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但这仍需观察

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它处于超大型科技股的低价区间

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从相对角度

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相比十七倍估值

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三十倍看起来很出色

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但他们已减少回购

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从回购计划

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聚焦

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从盈利能力

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如果我们看这里

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我是安全边际投资者

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所以我需要更低的价格

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现在两百美元

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安全边际是四年前的一百

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当我们买入时

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这就是公司近年的成长方式

243
00:10:13,529 --> 00:10:15,470
谈到买入时

244
00:10:15,470 --> 00:10:16,350
我认为是的

245
00:10:16,350 --> 00:10:18,990
对于多元化投资策略

246
00:10:18,990 --> 00:10:20,589
如果它下跌

247
00:10:20,589 --> 00:10:21,729
你可以增持

248
00:10:21,729 --> 00:10:23,688
然后管理波动性

249
00:10:23,688 --> 00:10:25,489
那就是个重要的事情

250
00:10:25,489 --> 00:10:28,779
但始终要记住那里的波动性

251
00:10:28,779 --> 00:10:29,580
这就是风险

252
00:10:29,580 --> 00:10:32,360
因此我只把它放在这里的Facebook上

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00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,169
现金流收益率为9%

254
00:10:35,169 --> 00:10:37,389
可能是长期回报率

255
00:10:37,389 --> 00:10:41,710
风险低于我们讨论过的如埃森哲等公司

256
00:10:41,710 --> 00:10:42,849
诸如此类的事情

257
00:10:42,849 --> 00:10:44,708
但同样非常有趣

258
00:10:44,708 --> 00:10:46,629
如果你想查看我的投资组合

259
00:10:46,629 --> 00:10:48,919
请访问我的研究平台

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00:10:48,919 --> 00:10:52,828
期待你在Facebook上的评论

261
00:10:52,828 --> 00:10:55,188
我们将持续讨论这个话题

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00:10:55,188 --> 00:10:58,229
这对我来说总是有趣的情况

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00:10:58,229 --> 00:11:00,899
只是稍微有点过度兴奋

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