BV198TL6pE4r · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:00,440 大家好 2 00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:02,799 欢迎回来观看今天的投资组合更新 3 00:00:02,799 --> 00:00:05,519 过去一周投资组合下跌了 4 00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:07,080 我们暂定六个百分点 5 00:00:07,080 --> 00:00:09,900 而标普指数下跌了2.3 6 00:00:09,900 --> 00:00:10,660 8个百分点 7 00:00:10,660 --> 00:00:14,849 但今年以来投资组合仍上涨了36 8 00:00:14,849 --> 00:00:15,609 7个百分点 9 00:00:15,609 --> 00:00:17,370 而标普指数上涨了6 10 00:00:17,370 --> 00:00:18,030 9个百分点 11 00:00:18,030 --> 00:00:19,629 当然自从明星 12 00:00:19,629 --> 00:00:21,350 投资组合上涨了240 13 00:00:21,350 --> 00:00:22,379 4点 14 00:00:22,379 --> 00:00:22,780 4 15 00:00:22,780 --> 00:00:23,500 5个百分点 16 00:00:23,500 --> 00:00:26,379 而标普指数上涨了46 17 00:00:26,379 --> 00:00:26,699 7 18 00:00:26,699 --> 00:00:27,399 5个百分点 19 00:00:27,399 --> 00:00:28,798 所以在今天的视频中 20 00:00:28,798 --> 00:00:31,259 我们将快速回顾即将来临的财报周 21 00:00:31,259 --> 00:00:33,558 说实话没什么好说的 22 00:00:33,558 --> 00:00:37,439 周一收盘后市场将有重要环境变化 23 00:00:37,439 --> 00:00:39,799 然后对于大多数人来说 24 00:00:39,799 --> 00:00:41,200 最重要的事件 25 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:42,039 如果你持有 26 00:00:42,039 --> 00:00:43,619 将是耐克 27 00:00:43,619 --> 00:00:45,030 收盘后公布 28 00:00:45,030 --> 00:00:48,409 耐克肯定会谈到关税 29 00:00:48,409 --> 00:00:49,359 退款问题 30 00:00:49,359 --> 00:00:51,700 转型故事可能正在发生 31 00:00:51,700 --> 00:00:53,380 希望比预期更快 32 00:00:53,380 --> 00:00:55,609 世界杯带来的积极势头 33 00:00:55,609 --> 00:00:56,869 等等 34 00:00:56,869 --> 00:00:58,450 至于本周剩余时间 35 00:00:58,450 --> 00:01:01,369 说实话没什么特别的 36 00:01:01,369 --> 00:01:03,049 在此个人方面 37 00:01:03,049 --> 00:01:04,310 我有一个重大成就 38 00:01:04,310 --> 00:01:06,230 迈克尔·贝里在X上屏蔽了我 39 00:01:06,230 --> 00:01:09,980 毕竟空头都是彻头彻尾的失败者 40 00:01:09,980 --> 00:01:14,120 我们将重新讨论上周提到的对话 41 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:16,519 从技术分析角度来看 42 00:01:16,519 --> 00:01:19,759 看看过去五天发生了什么 43 00:01:19,759 --> 00:01:21,858 我将分享我对 44 00:01:21,858 --> 00:01:23,959 暂称半病毒式 45 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:24,638 杰里米 46 00:01:24,638 --> 00:01:29,400 格兰姆在CNBC的露面 47 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:30,799 我们将展示他 48 00:01:30,799 --> 00:01:31,900 未说的内容 49 00:01:31,900 --> 00:01:32,280 我们将 50 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:34,400 当然查看投资组合 51 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:36,239 从外部视角来看 52 00:01:36,239 --> 00:01:37,920 核心持仓依然存在 53 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:39,000 那里没有任何变化 54 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:40,579 除了这只股票价格 55 00:01:40,579 --> 00:01:45,219 2028年的PayPal牛市价差策略仍有效 56 00:01:45,219 --> 00:01:46,700 相比上周 57 00:01:46,700 --> 00:01:49,200 我们现在处于更有利位置 58 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:50,579 截至目前此刻 59 00:01:50,579 --> 00:01:53,260 我想快速提及退休投资组合 60 00:01:53,260 --> 00:01:54,909 因为我每 61 00:01:54,909 --> 00:01:56,870 可能两到三个季度 62 00:01:56,870 --> 00:01:58,670 没什么可多说的 63 00:01:58,670 --> 00:02:00,890 这是2018年开立的 64 00:02:00,890 --> 00:02:05,209 这里看到的大部分持仓自那时起一直持有 65 00:02:05,209 --> 00:02:06,129 尤其是亚马逊 66 00:02:06,129 --> 00:02:06,409 这确实 67 00:02:06,409 --> 00:02:09,430 我认为这是首个进入该组合的标的 68 00:02:09,430 --> 00:02:10,770 我现在持有12% 69 00:02:10,770 --> 00:02:12,430 3%的现金 70 00:02:12,430 --> 00:02:16,930 为什么呢因为这里已没有特斯拉股票 71 00:02:16,930 --> 00:02:18,330 你可以清楚看到 72 00:02:18,330 --> 00:02:20,610 英伟达是我最大持仓 73 00:02:20,610 --> 00:02:26,180 其次是Meta紧随其后是亚马逊和谷歌 74 00:02:26,180 --> 00:02:27,960 为何持有这些标的 75 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:30,139 如果在其他组合中持有这些标的 76 00:02:30,139 --> 00:02:30,680 再次说明 77 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:33,620 自接近2018年至今持有 78 00:02:33,620 --> 00:02:37,379 2019至2020年期间 79 00:02:37,379 --> 00:02:42,259 我完全不干预它 80 00:02:42,259 --> 00:02:43,430 只需让它自然发展 81 00:02:43,430 --> 00:02:44,210 二十年后 82 00:02:44,210 --> 00:02:45,719 三十年后 83 00:02:45,719 --> 00:02:50,340 希望那时规模会远超当前 84 00:02:50,340 --> 00:02:51,360 现在持有12.3%现金 85 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:52,439 3%现金比例 86 00:02:52,439 --> 00:02:54,560 可以继续持有现金 87 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:56,800 或既然我不太在意短期波动 88 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:58,209 短期走势如何 89 00:02:58,209 --> 00:03:00,968 或许直接投入英伟达 90 00:03:00,968 --> 00:03:02,368 原因一是 91 00:03:02,368 --> 00:03:05,849 英伟达周线接近50日均线 92 00:03:05,849 --> 00:03:07,169 如图所示 93 00:03:07,169 --> 00:03:08,759 此前曾触及 94 00:03:08,759 --> 00:03:10,080 一度跌破该位 95 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:11,780 随后出现强劲反弹 96 00:03:11,780 --> 00:03:13,419 若能保持上方 97 00:03:13,419 --> 00:03:14,699 可能试探后再次反弹 98 00:03:14,699 --> 00:03:18,819 我认为这可能是日线买入信号 99 00:03:18,819 --> 00:03:20,349 观察英伟达 100 00:03:20,349 --> 00:03:23,990 处于200日移动平均线位置 101 00:03:23,990 --> 00:03:26,789 如果它能保持在那个水平并反弹回来 102 00:03:26,789 --> 00:03:30,250 我觉得这会是一个适合添加的位置 103 00:03:30,250 --> 00:03:32,830 现在纯粹从市盈率角度来看 104 00:03:32,830 --> 00:03:34,050 我现在正在向你展示 105 00:03:34,050 --> 00:03:35,620 过去十年 106 00:03:35,620 --> 00:03:36,060 好的 107 00:03:36,060 --> 00:03:36,879 过去十年 108 00:03:36,879 --> 00:03:38,229 其实并不重要 109 00:03:38,229 --> 00:03:39,849 甚至没什么道理 110 00:03:39,849 --> 00:03:42,289 因为十年前的英伟达不是同一家公司 111 00:03:42,289 --> 00:03:44,750 即使是六年前也完全不同 112 00:03:44,750 --> 00:03:46,539 但为了讨论方便 113 00:03:46,539 --> 00:03:50,959 让我们展示过去十年的数据，按十年平均计算 114 00:03:50,959 --> 00:03:53,750 当前市盈率是五倍九次方 115 00:03:53,750 --> 00:03:55,449 前向市盈率二十九点五倍 116 00:03:55,449 --> 00:03:59,449 当前市盈率如你所见略低于二十倍 117 00:04:02,430 --> 00:04:02,949 好的 118 00:04:02,949 --> 00:04:04,590 这里曾出现极端高点 119 00:04:04,590 --> 00:04:06,550 但必须综合所有因素考虑 120 00:04:06,550 --> 00:04:08,349 尤其是考虑到 121 00:04:08,349 --> 00:04:10,699 根本不是同一家公司 122 00:04:10,699 --> 00:04:11,740 前向市销率 123 00:04:11,740 --> 00:04:14,900 现金流此前接近二十倍 124 00:04:14,900 --> 00:04:16,920 过去十年的平均值 125 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:18,430 三点七三倍 126 00:04:18,430 --> 00:04:18,790 E 127 00:04:18,790 --> 00:04:18,990 V 128 00:04:18,990 --> 00:04:20,350 两倍销售额十点 129 00:04:20,350 --> 00:04:21,149 六倍 130 00:04:21,149 --> 00:04:21,589 好的 131 00:04:21,589 --> 00:04:22,490 十点六倍 132 00:04:22,490 --> 00:04:22,709 E 133 00:04:22,709 --> 00:04:22,829 V 134 00:04:22,829 --> 00:04:24,149 前向市销率一倍 135 00:04:24,149 --> 00:04:25,120 并不便宜 136 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:25,399 好的 137 00:04:25,399 --> 00:04:25,920 并不便宜 138 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:29,769 但对于如此盈利且快速增长的公司 139 00:04:29,769 --> 00:04:31,430 或许可以接受 140 00:04:31,430 --> 00:04:33,509 EV到前向市销率 141 00:04:33,509 --> 00:04:35,060 十五点四倍 142 00:04:35,060 --> 00:04:36,279 十年中位数 143 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:37,420 三点一倍 144 00:04:37,420 --> 00:04:39,069 所以当我听到 145 00:04:39,069 --> 00:04:43,730 稍后你会听到杰里米关于 146 00:04:43,730 --> 00:04:44,408 哦 147 00:04:44,408 --> 00:04:46,968 我们处于有史以来最贵的市场 148 00:04:46,968 --> 00:04:50,259 然后他会说我们有百年数据 149 00:04:50,540 --> 00:04:51,000 好吧 150 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:52,160 你无法比较 151 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:57,839 你不能将今天的市场与1929年、1970年的市场相比 152 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:01,170 或者说，甚至在2000年时也是如此 153 00:05:01,170 --> 00:05:06,019 不过这将是稍后几分钟的讨论内容 154 00:05:06,019 --> 00:05:09,740 如果我们回到上周提到的公司 155 00:05:09,740 --> 00:05:12,060 从技术分析角度来看 156 00:05:12,060 --> 00:05:13,339 我买入了一些 157 00:05:13,339 --> 00:05:14,680 稍后我们会详细讲解 158 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:18,430 但上周我们谈到字母公司（Alphabet）的初始峰值 159 00:05:18,430 --> 00:05:20,069 368美元 160 00:05:20,069 --> 00:05:23,050 周五收盘价为337美元 161 00:05:23,050 --> 00:05:24,949 大致如此目前 162 00:05:24,949 --> 00:05:27,750 当你观察主要移动平均线 163 00:05:27,750 --> 00:05:28,870 100日均线 164 00:05:28,870 --> 00:05:30,310 336美元 165 00:05:30,310 --> 00:05:32,509 这就是当前支撑线 166 00:05:32,509 --> 00:05:36,670 50日均线在359美元被跌破 167 00:05:36,670 --> 00:05:39,670 200日均线位于386美元 168 00:05:39,670 --> 00:05:43,278 当然目前我们处于下方 169 00:05:43,278 --> 00:05:44,478 如果能够守住 170 00:05:44,478 --> 00:05:47,500 并在这一区域反弹将是好事 171 00:05:47,500 --> 00:05:49,459 至于火箭实验室（Rocket Lab） 172 00:05:49,459 --> 00:05:49,920 这里 173 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:51,029 未能守住 174 00:05:51,029 --> 00:05:51,389 好的 175 00:05:51,389 --> 00:05:53,149 未能守住50日均线 176 00:05:53,149 --> 00:05:56,290 收盘价103至104美元跌破该线 177 00:05:56,290 --> 00:05:57,209 100日均线 178 00:05:57,209 --> 00:05:58,170 简单移动平均线 179 00:05:58,170 --> 00:05:59,129 87.5美元 180 00:05:59,129 --> 00:06:00,720 同样跌破了该线 181 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:04,220 不过周五火箭实验室仍有一些积极动量 182 00:06:04,220 --> 00:06:06,000 纳斯达克（Nasdaq）也是如此 183 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:08,680 支撑位或我将加仓的位置 184 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:09,480 甚至更多 185 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:13,259 可能在70美元左右 186 00:06:13,259 --> 00:06:14,339 但你说在80美元区间 187 00:06:14,339 --> 00:06:15,139 但我会展示给你看 188 00:06:15,139 --> 00:06:17,540 过去几天我已经加仓了 189 00:06:17,540 --> 00:06:18,620 对我来说 190 00:06:18,620 --> 00:06:19,428 要合理 191 00:06:19,428 --> 00:06:21,608 还需进一步下跌 192 00:06:21,608 --> 00:06:22,889 至于Axon 193 00:06:22,889 --> 00:06:23,668 这里确实如此 194 00:06:23,668 --> 00:06:24,949 完全相反 195 00:06:24,949 --> 00:06:26,449 我们继续上涨 196 00:06:26,449 --> 00:06:28,350 因此重新收复了阻力位 197 00:06:28,350 --> 00:06:29,329 周五收盘价 198 00:06:29,329 --> 00:06:32,459 464美元，非常出色 199 00:06:32,459 --> 00:06:36,899 我的支持价位在17.4美元左右 200 00:06:36,899 --> 00:06:39,800 两百天均线仍处于高位，接近两美元 201 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:41,279 两美元九角 202 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:42,360 如果我们能达到这个价位 203 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:44,800 可能将是财报后的行情波动 204 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:50,079 但目前我们仍在努力维持每股十八美元以上 205 00:06:50,079 --> 00:06:52,899 至于许多情况与上周相同 206 00:06:52,899 --> 00:06:55,660 股票并未大幅波动 207 00:06:55,660 --> 00:06:57,899 两百周简单移动平均线 208 00:06:57,899 --> 00:06:58,980 目前位于一千 209 00:06:58,980 --> 00:07:00,819 六百七十二左右 210 00:07:00,819 --> 00:07:01,839 这就是 211 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:03,740 这里是你的活跃战场 212 00:07:03,740 --> 00:07:04,360 目前 213 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:05,439 它确实 214 00:07:05,439 --> 00:07:07,639 已上涨约四十美元 215 00:07:07,639 --> 00:07:08,860 但对于这只股票 216 00:07:08,860 --> 00:07:12,060 这样的涨幅似乎不合逻辑 217 00:07:12,060 --> 00:07:13,420 至于Meta 218 00:07:13,420 --> 00:07:18,519 我们仍看到该股面临下行压力 219 00:07:18,519 --> 00:07:19,019 当 220 00:07:19,019 --> 00:07:20,420 我将更激进地增持 221 00:07:20,420 --> 00:07:21,850 五百零五 222 00:07:21,850 --> 00:07:23,720 约二十美元 223 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:24,800 或若出现反弹 224 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:27,100 必须突破六百美元上方 225 00:07:27,100 --> 00:07:28,379 六百三十 226 00:07:28,379 --> 00:07:32,769 至于Uber上周出现积极动量 227 00:07:32,769 --> 00:07:34,170 七十一点六美分 228 00:07:34,170 --> 00:07:37,500 周五收盘于七十六美元二美分 229 00:07:37,500 --> 00:07:42,680 我们重新收复五十日均线七十三点五美分 230 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:44,199 至于最近两周 231 00:07:44,199 --> 00:07:45,620 上周新增持仓 232 00:07:45,620 --> 00:07:46,000 十二 233 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:47,079 七角 234 00:07:47,079 --> 00:07:49,420 本周五十三点一七 235 00:07:49,420 --> 00:07:50,480 五十日均线 236 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,079 简单移动平均线位于十三点五 237 00:07:53,079 --> 00:07:56,379 目前略低于该水平 238 00:07:56,379 --> 00:07:59,240 至于Netflix这里同样 239 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:01,800 仍在等待两百日均线 240 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:04,139 目标约七十美元 241 00:08:04,139 --> 00:08:05,579 我们已接近该价位 242 00:08:05,579 --> 00:08:05,899 所以再次 243 00:08:05,899 --> 00:08:07,139 如果你不想捕捉 244 00:08:07,139 --> 00:08:08,399 终极底部 245 00:08:08,399 --> 00:08:09,860 我们处于七十三点 246 00:08:09,860 --> 00:08:12,788 八可能是个好的加仓区域 247 00:08:12,788 --> 00:08:15,310 这让我想到投资组合本身 248 00:08:15,310 --> 00:08:17,550 Nebuus仍是第一持仓 249 00:08:17,550 --> 00:08:20,069 当然Nebuus现在已大幅上涨 250 00:08:20,069 --> 00:08:22,160 那个涅布库斯这周过得有点糟糕 251 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:23,720 我们说涅布斯科礁 252 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:25,149 他们这周状态不好 253 00:08:25,149 --> 00:08:27,089 我们现在回到240美元 254 00:08:27,089 --> 00:08:28,870 所以上周的那次反弹 255 00:08:28,870 --> 00:08:30,629 占了投资组合的24% 256 00:08:30,629 --> 00:08:31,759 不是21.6% 257 00:08:31,759 --> 00:08:36,399 现在你可以明白为什么投资组合本周接近6% 258 00:08:36,399 --> 00:08:38,740 但随后我们看到硫化物二号 259 00:08:38,740 --> 00:08:40,120 瞄准D号目标三 260 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:42,818 MD仍保持强劲势头 261 00:08:42,818 --> 00:08:43,019 是的 262 00:08:43,019 --> 00:08:43,639 我们曾一度上涨 263 00:08:43,639 --> 00:08:45,938 但我们仍保持在500美元上方 264 00:08:45,938 --> 00:08:46,899 这样很好 265 00:08:46,899 --> 00:08:48,679 谷歌稍有回调 266 00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:49,460 这也正常 267 00:08:49,460 --> 00:08:51,200 火箭实验室现价五美元 268 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:54,820 奥斯卡成功升至第六位 269 00:08:54,820 --> 00:08:56,000 我们有美光科技 270 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:57,980 美光发布优异财报 271 00:08:57,980 --> 00:08:58,720 指引积极 272 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:00,169 初期有明显上涨 273 00:09:00,169 --> 00:09:01,690 但随后出现回落 274 00:09:01,690 --> 00:09:05,070 本周韩国股市有些动荡 275 00:09:05,070 --> 00:09:06,029 略显混乱 276 00:09:06,029 --> 00:09:08,809 我们在特定视频中讨论过美光 277 00:09:08,809 --> 00:09:10,809 我认为是周四 278 00:09:10,809 --> 00:09:11,710 或许周五 279 00:09:11,710 --> 00:09:13,580 我觉得还是周四 280 00:09:13,580 --> 00:09:14,179 关于报告 281 00:09:14,179 --> 00:09:15,799 指引非常出色 282 00:09:15,799 --> 00:09:19,480 我仍相信收入将持续增长 283 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:20,120 我们听说 284 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:25,710 当然有关苹果寻求从中国公司采购内存的传闻 285 00:09:29,860 --> 00:09:30,580 总之 286 00:09:30,580 --> 00:09:31,860 无法向他们采购 287 00:09:31,860 --> 00:09:33,700 因为被列入军事清单 288 00:09:33,700 --> 00:09:35,100 或类似中国的情况 289 00:09:35,100 --> 00:09:35,889 总之 290 00:09:35,889 --> 00:09:38,049 我们将看到更多公司 291 00:09:38,049 --> 00:09:43,259 当然要重点关注内存领域 292 00:09:43,259 --> 00:09:48,019 如何避免过度支付内存成本 293 00:09:48,019 --> 00:09:49,179 我们仍需要内存 294 00:09:49,179 --> 00:09:50,159 但我们会 295 00:09:50,159 --> 00:09:53,299 尽一切优化内存使用 296 00:09:53,299 --> 00:09:55,019 我仍然认为美光 297 00:09:55,019 --> 00:09:58,299 和其他公司仍将赚得盆满钵满 298 00:09:58,299 --> 00:10:00,649 未来12到24个月内 299 00:10:00,649 --> 00:10:02,549 我们将看看边距会发生什么变化 300 00:10:02,549 --> 00:10:03,929 至于元数据方面 301 00:10:03,929 --> 00:10:06,120 股票仍面临压力 302 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:10,120 公司每天都有大量新闻头条 303 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:14,120 我认为最重要的还是财报电话会议 304 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:17,399 至于在七十美元左右徘徊 305 00:10:17,399 --> 00:10:21,850 本地投资者相信已进入罗素两千指数 306 00:10:21,850 --> 00:10:22,909 这对股票有利 307 00:10:22,909 --> 00:10:24,990 有利于流动性和认可度 308 00:10:24,990 --> 00:10:26,649 但如你所见 309 00:10:26,649 --> 00:10:30,409 股票仍在十二点六九美元附近 310 00:10:30,409 --> 00:10:31,690 Uber正在缓慢回升 311 00:10:31,690 --> 00:10:32,149 但肯定 312 00:10:32,149 --> 00:10:35,889 我认为Uber会回升至每股一百美元 313 00:10:35,889 --> 00:10:37,570 就像我们看到的Robinhood一样 314 00:10:37,570 --> 00:10:40,690 Robinhood也回升至每股一百美元 315 00:10:40,690 --> 00:10:40,950 现在 316 00:10:40,950 --> 00:10:43,419 股价在九十八美元左右 317 00:10:43,419 --> 00:10:45,139 至于新十三 318 00:10:45,139 --> 00:10:46,940 该仓位十七美分 319 00:10:46,940 --> 00:10:49,240 我亏损近八个百分点 320 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:50,340 这对我来说没问题 321 00:10:50,340 --> 00:10:51,720 仍在逐步积累 322 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:52,440 Netflix 323 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:54,100 我亏损十三点八个百分点 324 00:10:54,100 --> 00:10:56,460 当前价格七十三点八美元 325 00:10:56,460 --> 00:10:58,370 对此调整我表示接受 326 00:10:58,370 --> 00:11:01,429 四号股最近几天涨幅显著 327 00:11:01,429 --> 00:11:01,649 没错 328 00:11:01,649 --> 00:11:03,529 这只股票曾三十多美元 329 00:11:03,529 --> 00:11:05,360 或接近四十七美元 330 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:06,559 发生了什么 331 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:07,879 说实话没有 332 00:11:07,879 --> 00:11:09,659 我没看到相关新闻 333 00:11:09,659 --> 00:11:11,360 价格在缓慢下跌 334 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:12,320 但或许会回升 335 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:14,740 股票正在积累动量 336 00:11:14,740 --> 00:11:17,659 仍未卖出这部分股份 337 00:11:17,659 --> 00:11:18,929 至于Axon 338 00:11:18,929 --> 00:11:19,529 你可以看到 339 00:11:19,529 --> 00:11:21,029 我已经上涨十七点 340 00:11:21,029 --> 00:11:22,350 这里涨幅五个百分点 341 00:11:22,350 --> 00:11:24,009 占投资组合两百分比 342 00:11:24,009 --> 00:11:26,039 然后是Palantir 343 00:11:28,759 --> 00:11:31,960 如果你长期关注投资组合 344 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:37,539 会注意到Palantir现在占两百分比 345 00:11:37,820 --> 00:11:39,659 怎么会这样呢 346 00:11:39,659 --> 00:11:40,639 女士们先生们 347 00:11:40,639 --> 00:11:43,179 我买入了一百股Palantir 348 00:11:43,179 --> 00:11:46,620 我以107美元买入了Palantir的100股 349 00:11:46,620 --> 00:11:48,139 为什么这么说呢 350 00:11:48,139 --> 00:11:50,960 我们经历了50%的回撤 351 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:53,080 贴现率约为1倍 352 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:54,700 仍保持疯狂增长 353 00:11:54,700 --> 00:11:55,919 利润率扩张 354 00:11:55,919 --> 00:11:57,519 在疯狂增长的同时 355 00:11:57,519 --> 00:12:00,440 股票在107美元时被严重超卖 356 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:01,078 现在 357 00:12:01,078 --> 00:12:03,499 股价涨至212美元 358 00:12:03,499 --> 00:12:04,558 接近113美元 359 00:12:04,558 --> 00:12:07,379 所以你可以感谢我这次的启动行情 360 00:12:07,379 --> 00:12:09,080 但你知道的 361 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:10,559 我可以展示给你看 362 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:14,360 之前我的投资组合里有Palantir 363 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:16,440 上次我持有 364 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:20,429 实际上是在2024年12月4日 365 00:12:20,429 --> 00:12:25,070 我在69美元时清仓了持仓 366 00:12:25,070 --> 00:12:27,129 后又在107美元重新买入 367 00:12:27,129 --> 00:12:27,450 好的 368 00:12:27,450 --> 00:12:29,909 可以说错过了50%涨幅 369 00:12:29,909 --> 00:12:31,250 我错过的更多 370 00:12:31,250 --> 00:12:33,309 如果我能精准抄顶 371 00:12:33,309 --> 00:12:36,279 本可卖在200美元 372 00:12:36,399 --> 00:12:37,659 好吧 373 00:12:37,659 --> 00:12:38,950 我卖掉了 374 00:12:38,950 --> 00:12:40,330 我必须接受这个结果 375 00:12:40,330 --> 00:12:40,929 没问题 376 00:12:40,929 --> 00:12:43,110 股价一路涨到200美元/股 377 00:12:43,110 --> 00:12:44,679 人们说我是个蠢蛋 378 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:45,360 不过嘿 379 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:46,360 有了这笔钱 380 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:48,539 让我买入了Neobrut 381 00:12:48,539 --> 00:12:50,960 让我买入Micron并关注这些持仓 382 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:51,960 看看Rocket Lab 383 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:53,230 看看所有这些其他标的 384 00:12:53,230 --> 00:12:54,909 它们表现相当不错 385 00:12:54,909 --> 00:12:55,850 现在是的 386 00:12:55,850 --> 00:12:58,350 我认为107美元/股 387 00:12:58,350 --> 00:13:00,490 甚至112美元/股 388 00:13:00,490 --> 00:13:04,450 正是重新建仓Palantir的好时机 389 00:13:04,450 --> 00:13:08,450 我将制作完整DCF分析视频 390 00:13:09,450 --> 00:13:11,929 因为我认为从纸面数据看 391 00:13:11,929 --> 00:13:12,730 当你观察时 392 00:13:12,730 --> 00:13:14,818 市盈率极高 393 00:13:14,818 --> 00:13:15,379 是的 394 00:13:15,379 --> 00:13:20,830 但市盈增长比接近1倍 395 00:13:20,830 --> 00:13:24,519 这不是预期会 396 00:13:24,519 --> 00:13:25,639 我不浪费 397 00:13:25,639 --> 00:13:28,980 数百亿或数十亿美元的资本支出 398 00:13:28,980 --> 00:13:30,289 因为人工智能 399 00:13:30,289 --> 00:13:33,009 现在这是人工智能的绝对赢家 400 00:13:33,009 --> 00:13:34,149 这并不重要 401 00:13:34,149 --> 00:13:36,210 哪个模型会胜出 402 00:13:36,210 --> 00:13:39,919 让模型公司解决他们的问题吧 403 00:13:39,919 --> 00:13:42,279 还有像帕兰提尔这样的公司 404 00:13:42,279 --> 00:13:44,460 甚至在ChatGPT等出现之前 405 00:13:44,460 --> 00:13:45,860 等等产品问世前 406 00:13:45,860 --> 00:13:51,399 他们的使命始终是帮助企业 407 00:13:51,399 --> 00:13:56,840 更好地理解数据并立即采取行动 408 00:13:56,840 --> 00:13:58,960 当然现在进展更快了 409 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:01,679 当然借助AI和大模型等 410 00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:04,039 可见性更强了 411 00:14:04,039 --> 00:14:05,059 数据更多了 412 00:14:05,059 --> 00:14:06,000 数据持续流入 413 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:07,220 更多连接器 414 00:14:07,220 --> 00:14:08,818 你随便说 415 00:14:08,818 --> 00:14:11,058 但核心的帕兰提尔 416 00:14:11,058 --> 00:14:11,739 使命始终如一 417 00:14:11,739 --> 00:14:13,759 他们所做的基本 418 00:14:13,759 --> 00:14:14,700 没有改变 419 00:14:14,700 --> 00:14:16,419 不是因为ChatGPT 420 00:14:16,419 --> 00:14:17,860 他们一直在开发产品 421 00:14:17,860 --> 00:14:19,450 结果不出所料 422 00:14:19,450 --> 00:14:21,110 成为最大赢家之一 423 00:14:21,110 --> 00:14:22,169 因为聊天功能 424 00:14:22,169 --> 00:14:24,470 再次迎来GPT时刻 425 00:14:24,470 --> 00:14:25,509 我来谈谈 426 00:14:25,509 --> 00:14:29,049 我将重新审视帕兰提尔的初始观点 427 00:14:29,049 --> 00:14:30,169 我们分析DCF模型 428 00:14:30,169 --> 00:14:32,009 你会明白原因 429 00:14:32,009 --> 00:14:35,399 我愿意以每股107美元买入 430 00:14:35,399 --> 00:14:39,700 随后从英伟达获得1.5美元股息 431 00:14:39,700 --> 00:14:42,740 从Meta获得2.5美元股息 432 00:14:42,740 --> 00:14:47,490 我以高于当前价格买入了20股火箭实验室股票 433 00:14:47,490 --> 00:14:48,429 我们现在所处的价格 434 00:14:48,429 --> 00:14:51,558 再次以88.8美元买入 435 00:14:51,558 --> 00:14:53,298 正如火箭实验室所示 436 00:14:53,298 --> 00:14:58,720 你可以看到我最初以140美元卖出4.5股 437 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:00,259 以80股买入 438 00:15:00,259 --> 00:15:02,240 平均约87美元左右 439 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:04,799 因此若能以低于100美元均价回购 440 00:15:04,799 --> 00:15:10,379 我会立即行动 441 00:15:10,379 --> 00:15:12,559 但我会逐步增持 442 00:15:12,559 --> 00:15:16,480 当然会更多投资Axon 443 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:18,909 我还额外买入5股 444 00:15:18,909 --> 00:15:23,720 以409美元上涨2.5% 445 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:26,019 现已回升至464美元 446 00:15:26,019 --> 00:15:29,279 可惜没时间完成埃克森的所有买入 447 00:15:29,279 --> 00:15:31,019 但这就是现状 448 00:15:31,019 --> 00:15:32,460 所以只有五股不错 449 00:15:32,460 --> 00:15:34,470 还是两千美元 450 00:15:34,470 --> 00:15:39,110 这就是持仓位置现在处于这个点位的主要原因 451 00:15:39,110 --> 00:15:39,789 九 452 00:15:39,789 --> 00:15:42,149 投资组合的1% 453 00:15:42,149 --> 00:15:43,269 两周前 454 00:15:43,269 --> 00:15:44,850 当时在前五名 455 00:15:44,850 --> 00:15:46,279 前六名左右 456 00:15:46,279 --> 00:15:48,399 但如果市场给我机会 457 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:55,460 我将开始买入并增持之前获利了结的仓位 458 00:15:55,460 --> 00:15:57,980 或者在这个案例中有人问我 459 00:15:57,980 --> 00:15:59,700 为什么你持有Palantir一股 460 00:15:59,700 --> 00:16:01,529 我常说是为了跟踪它 461 00:16:01,529 --> 00:16:03,269 猜猜我跟踪了 462 00:16:03,269 --> 00:16:06,470 从我卖出到两百美元一路跟踪 463 00:16:06,470 --> 00:16:10,210 然后一路回落到每股107美元 464 00:16:10,210 --> 00:16:12,409 现在我又重新买入了 465 00:16:12,409 --> 00:16:16,328 我是否希望它立刻涨到两百美元 466 00:16:16,328 --> 00:16:16,869 不 467 00:16:16,869 --> 00:16:21,318 我还是想长期持续增持 468 00:16:21,318 --> 00:16:22,658 至于剩下的这些 469 00:16:22,658 --> 00:16:24,558 你分散得太多 470 00:16:24,558 --> 00:16:26,058 持仓太多 471 00:16:26,058 --> 00:16:26,719 我没有 472 00:16:26,719 --> 00:16:29,730 我对现有持仓非常满意 473 00:16:29,730 --> 00:16:31,470 这里有多只持仓 474 00:16:31,470 --> 00:16:37,309 我认为这些将在未来几年显著跑赢市场 475 00:16:37,309 --> 00:16:41,070 即使整个支出周期放缓 476 00:16:41,070 --> 00:16:45,590 这里有很多公司会持续增长业务 477 00:16:45,590 --> 00:16:48,429 因为它们正在做正确的事情 478 00:16:48,429 --> 00:16:52,169 无论资本支出增加50%与否 479 00:16:52,169 --> 00:16:54,750 现在并不重要 480 00:16:54,750 --> 00:16:57,879 转向杰里米·格兰瑟姆的故事 481 00:16:57,879 --> 00:17:00,440 他是一位87岁的亿万富翁 482 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:02,379 从事投资已有60年 483 00:17:02,379 --> 00:17:03,639 或者如此 484 00:17:03,639 --> 00:17:05,339 他本质上是长期看空者 485 00:17:05,339 --> 00:17:06,339 这不是我要表达的 486 00:17:06,339 --> 00:17:08,319 他自己就是这样说的 487 00:17:08,319 --> 00:17:09,359 我认为他有一本书 488 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:10,940 或者《成为长期看空者》 489 00:17:10,940 --> 00:17:12,440 这就是他的观点 490 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:12,880 嗯 491 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:13,759 这就是他的风格 492 00:17:14,839 --> 00:17:17,118 现在让他自己说 493 00:17:17,118 --> 00:17:19,939 然后我们分析一些被高估的数据 494 00:17:19,939 --> 00:17:25,200 21世纪初已被20世纪标准高估 495 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:28,000 百年数据表明我们长期被高估 496 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:31,279 我原本想就技术行业做论点 497 00:17:31,279 --> 00:17:33,660 或从2010年开始 498 00:17:33,660 --> 00:17:35,099 2010年的两个十年 499 00:17:35,099 --> 00:17:37,990 在这整个期间你一直看涨吗 500 00:17:37,990 --> 00:17:41,630 嗯二零零九年 501 00:17:41,630 --> 00:17:47,730 快到了我发布了我的唯一一份一页纸报告叫再投资 502 00:17:47,730 --> 00:17:48,529 当时非常恐惧 503 00:17:48,529 --> 00:17:51,829 但大多数时候我记得有一个巨大的牛市 504 00:17:51,829 --> 00:17:55,259 从2010年到2026年 505 00:17:55,259 --> 00:17:55,680 好的 506 00:17:55,680 --> 00:18:00,059 但顺便说一句那周那月没人看空市场 507 00:18:00,059 --> 00:18:03,259 但2010年的巨大牛市期间 508 00:18:03,259 --> 00:18:04,700 2010到2020 509 00:18:04,700 --> 00:18:07,269 从2010年至今 510 00:18:07,269 --> 00:18:13,559 P值平均比过去一百年高出60%以上 511 00:18:13,559 --> 00:18:16,579 我不知道何时判定市场高估 512 00:18:16,579 --> 00:18:20,619 但如果你年化涨幅达到60% 513 00:18:20,619 --> 00:18:23,720 我认为这不预示市场会崩盘 514 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:27,059 但确实表明市场已昂贵 515 00:18:27,059 --> 00:18:28,920 他甚至没回答问题 516 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:30,549 这是一个简单的问题 517 00:18:30,549 --> 00:18:34,430 从2010年开始你是否转为看涨 518 00:18:34,430 --> 00:18:35,980 哦市盈率 519 00:18:35,980 --> 00:18:37,359 回答问题 520 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:37,940 是的 521 00:18:37,940 --> 00:18:38,339 我们知道 522 00:18:38,339 --> 00:18:38,839 我们知道 523 00:18:38,839 --> 00:18:41,440 我们知道市盈率更高 524 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:45,420 我们也知道以下内容 525 00:18:45,420 --> 00:18:49,940 我们知道直到2024年底 526 00:18:49,940 --> 00:18:52,119 为了讨论方便 527 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:53,670 这样已经足够 528 00:18:53,670 --> 00:18:55,470 我们也知道这一点 529 00:18:55,470 --> 00:18:57,269 看看七大科技巨头 530 00:18:57,269 --> 00:18:59,569 对比2000年科技泡沫 531 00:18:59,569 --> 00:19:01,740 看看今天的公司 532 00:19:01,740 --> 00:19:03,400 市场占比百分比 533 00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:05,199 美国市值占比 534 00:19:05,199 --> 00:19:07,659 现金占市值百分比 535 00:19:07,659 --> 00:19:08,499 四个月后 536 00:19:08,499 --> 00:19:09,398 当时的市盈率 537 00:19:09,398 --> 00:19:10,679 净利润率 538 00:19:10,679 --> 00:19:13,789 净利润率可能是最重要的 539 00:19:13,789 --> 00:19:14,690 好的 540 00:19:14,690 --> 00:19:16,630 这里汇总的数据 541 00:19:16,630 --> 00:19:18,009 2024年的七大巨头 542 00:19:18,009 --> 00:19:18,250 两个 543 00:19:18,250 --> 00:19:18,890 百分之八 544 00:19:18,890 --> 00:19:20,710 净利润率被拉低 545 00:19:20,710 --> 00:19:22,979 当然被特斯拉和亚马逊拖累 546 00:19:22,979 --> 00:19:23,659 但好吧 547 00:19:23,659 --> 00:19:24,058 行 548 00:19:24,058 --> 00:19:25,499 两年四个月后 549 00:19:25,499 --> 00:19:26,558 市盈率两倍三倍 550 00:19:26,558 --> 00:19:27,349 九次 551 00:19:27,349 --> 00:19:28,890 如果我们达到两千万 552 00:19:28,890 --> 00:19:30,609 这里的科技领袖 553 00:19:30,609 --> 00:19:32,950 综合净利润率 554 00:19:32,950 --> 00:19:34,450 百分之十六 555 00:19:34,450 --> 00:19:34,990 好的 556 00:19:34,990 --> 00:19:37,690 十六比两八四个月后 557 00:19:37,690 --> 00:19:38,089 两 558 00:19:38,089 --> 00:19:39,170 四个月后 559 00:19:39,170 --> 00:19:41,348 市盈率五倍两倍 560 00:19:41,348 --> 00:19:44,048 每次听到这种愚蠢的争论比如 561 00:19:44,048 --> 00:19:44,229 哦 562 00:19:44,229 --> 00:19:44,949 我们可以比较 563 00:19:44,949 --> 00:19:46,299 你不能比较 564 00:19:46,299 --> 00:19:46,700 好的 565 00:19:46,700 --> 00:19:48,700 你不能比较今天的公司 566 00:19:48,700 --> 00:19:51,210 它们超级超级盈利 567 00:19:51,210 --> 00:19:53,549 与当年互联网泡沫时期的公司相比 568 00:19:53,549 --> 00:19:54,230 科技泡沫 569 00:19:54,230 --> 00:19:58,028 还有很少有人讨论的 570 00:19:58,028 --> 00:19:58,749 六年前 571 00:19:58,749 --> 00:20:01,180 当时地球上大约有六亿人左右 572 00:20:01,180 --> 00:20:02,980 现在我们已超过八亿 573 00:20:02,980 --> 00:20:05,559 你可能会说 574 00:20:05,559 --> 00:20:06,099 有什么意义 575 00:20:06,099 --> 00:20:06,799 谁在乎 576 00:20:06,799 --> 00:20:07,880 谁在乎 577 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:08,799 谁在乎 578 00:20:08,799 --> 00:20:09,119 呃 579 00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:14,059 你的可触及市场已从六亿大幅增长到八亿 580 00:20:14,059 --> 00:20:15,819 这新增了两亿人口 581 00:20:15,819 --> 00:20:20,380 为许多公司带来了两亿新潜在客户 582 00:20:20,380 --> 00:20:20,799 所以 583 00:20:20,799 --> 00:20:24,440 当然现在产生的收入远超以往 584 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:30,400 不仅如此全球化自动化后利润大幅增加 585 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:31,200 现在 586 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:32,460 人工智能机器人 587 00:20:32,460 --> 00:20:33,059 你随便说 588 00:20:33,059 --> 00:20:33,900 看看这些公司 589 00:20:33,900 --> 00:20:36,309 再看净利润率 590 00:20:36,309 --> 00:20:38,109 如果你想比较一九九八年 591 00:20:38,109 --> 00:20:41,730 二零零三年二零零八年二零一三年二零一八年 592 00:20:41,730 --> 00:20:44,089 而我相信今年是二零二一年 593 00:20:44,089 --> 00:20:47,160 但为了这个故事论点 594 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:50,730 看看顶级公司的差异 595 00:20:50,730 --> 00:20:55,650 今天的超级高利润企业无法比较 596 00:20:55,650 --> 00:20:56,369 是的 597 00:20:56,369 --> 00:20:58,069 基本上掌控世界 598 00:20:58,069 --> 00:21:02,230 与两年前六二业务的低利润率相比 599 00:21:02,230 --> 00:21:03,619 八年前 600 00:21:03,619 --> 00:21:05,259 你不能这样比较 601 00:21:05,259 --> 00:21:08,279 这是苹果和饼干的对比 602 00:21:08,279 --> 00:21:09,859 我继续说下去 603 00:21:09,859 --> 00:21:12,960 这仅是从二零一二到二零二六年 604 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:16,779 即使我们已处于这一历史性牛市的起点 605 00:21:16,779 --> 00:21:19,750 二零一二至二零二六年 606 00:21:19,750 --> 00:21:22,089 十二个月滚动毛利率 607 00:21:22,089 --> 00:21:25,490 我们从四十九点三一路提升到现在 608 00:21:25,490 --> 00:21:28,359 我们已达六十五点五 609 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,888 顺便说这是纳斯达克利润率 610 00:21:30,888 --> 00:21:32,888 再看运营利润率 611 00:21:32,888 --> 00:21:33,469 我们从 612 00:21:33,469 --> 00:21:37,769 从二十个百分点一路提升到二十九点 613 00:21:37,769 --> 00:21:38,730 五个百分点 614 00:21:38,730 --> 00:21:40,170 再看净利润率 615 00:21:40,170 --> 00:21:42,630 我们从十二个月滚动十点七 616 00:21:42,630 --> 00:21:46,269 四个百分点到现在约二十三点一 617 00:21:46,269 --> 00:21:47,329 五个百分点 618 00:21:47,329 --> 00:21:47,970 当然 619 00:21:47,970 --> 00:21:52,309 当然今天你会溢价交易 620 00:21:52,309 --> 00:21:53,150 相比之前 621 00:21:54,150 --> 00:21:58,829 因为你仍在快速增长且盈利能力更强 622 00:21:58,829 --> 00:21:59,910 合乎逻辑 623 00:21:59,910 --> 00:22:00,269 不 624 00:22:00,269 --> 00:22:01,549 正如我们之前看到的 625 00:22:01,549 --> 00:22:02,430 以英伟达为例 626 00:22:02,430 --> 00:22:04,839 这未来估值是否过高 627 00:22:04,839 --> 00:22:06,539 市盈率在二十几 628 00:22:06,539 --> 00:22:07,720 我不这么认为 629 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:11,180 继续看市盈率五百倍利润率 630 00:22:11,180 --> 00:22:12,259 长期来看 631 00:22:12,259 --> 00:22:14,240 回溯到一九九六年 632 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,539 那时我两岁，利润率五点九 633 00:22:17,539 --> 00:22:19,378 今天已升至三点三 634 00:22:19,378 --> 00:22:22,019 我们接近十一个百分点 635 00:22:22,019 --> 00:22:24,999 或者大约二零二五年左右 636 00:22:24,999 --> 00:22:28,849 接近十一个百分点左右 637 00:22:28,849 --> 00:22:29,950 是的 638 00:22:29,950 --> 00:22:30,789 抱歉说 639 00:22:30,789 --> 00:22:32,259 但有人论 640 00:22:32,259 --> 00:22:34,619 哦我们有百年历史数据 641 00:22:34,619 --> 00:22:35,380 所以我们不能 642 00:22:35,380 --> 00:22:38,539 不能将百年前与今日相提并论 643 00:22:38,539 --> 00:22:39,730 毫无意义 644 00:22:39,730 --> 00:22:41,390 继续吧 645 00:22:41,390 --> 00:22:41,789 这就是我的 646 00:22:41,789 --> 00:22:42,450 但我的问题 647 00:22:42,450 --> 00:22:43,950 这涉及技术层面 648 00:22:43,950 --> 00:22:45,309 此刻我认为我们正处于这个时刻 649 00:22:45,309 --> 00:22:45,890 借助人工智能 650 00:22:45,890 --> 00:22:46,569 每个人都在 651 00:22:46,569 --> 00:22:47,069 你知道的 652 00:22:47,069 --> 00:22:48,369 提出这个问题 653 00:22:48,369 --> 00:22:49,029 那就是 654 00:22:49,029 --> 00:22:49,410 你知道的 655 00:22:49,410 --> 00:22:52,710 经济学中最危险的词汇就是'这次不同了' 656 00:22:52,710 --> 00:22:54,230 你谈论的六十倍 657 00:22:54,230 --> 00:22:54,859 佩 658 00:22:54,859 --> 00:22:57,940 我们是否处于比以往高60%的境况 659 00:22:57,940 --> 00:23:01,339 阿奇我们是否正处于这样一个时刻 660 00:23:01,339 --> 00:23:04,480 尽管技术本质已发生改变 661 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:09,220 它将从根本上改写投资估值规则 662 00:23:09,220 --> 00:23:10,910 以及所有其他方面 663 00:23:11,269 --> 00:23:13,329 伟大的新发明 664 00:23:13,329 --> 00:23:16,490 铁路总是伴随 665 00:23:16,490 --> 00:23:20,359 互联网将改写规则 666 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:23,380 重大发明改变所有人生活 667 00:23:23,380 --> 00:23:28,390 它们总是伴随过度投资和短暂崩盘 668 00:23:28,390 --> 00:23:30,609 从中铁路改变了世界 669 00:23:30,609 --> 00:23:32,049 互联网改变了世界 670 00:23:32,049 --> 00:23:34,220 这正是当今的情况 671 00:23:34,220 --> 00:23:38,980 人工智能显然是一个耀眼重要的概念 672 00:23:38,980 --> 00:23:40,160 人人都知道 673 00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:40,420 不要 674 00:23:40,420 --> 00:23:41,319 他们是的 675 00:23:41,319 --> 00:23:42,250 我们都知道 676 00:23:42,250 --> 00:23:44,650 因此我们都想投资其中 677 00:23:44,650 --> 00:23:45,410 难道不是吗 678 00:23:45,410 --> 00:23:46,990 所以我们全都投入其中 679 00:23:46,990 --> 00:23:50,430 吸引了远超想象的资金 680 00:23:50,430 --> 00:23:52,029 因此出现过度投资 681 00:23:52,029 --> 00:23:56,470 最终所有人都血本无归 682 00:23:56,470 --> 00:23:58,109 他们在铁路时代倾家荡产 683 00:23:58,109 --> 00:23:59,130 绝妙的创意 684 00:23:59,130 --> 00:24:01,440 他们在互联网时代倾家荡产 685 00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:05,099 这是过去两百年三大创新 686 00:24:05,099 --> 00:24:08,549 现在将在人工智能中再次倾家荡产 687 00:24:08,549 --> 00:24:13,549 请记住亚马逊2000年股价暴跌92% 688 00:24:13,549 --> 00:24:15,179 曾上涨六倍 689 00:24:15,179 --> 00:24:17,378 随后暴跌92% 690 00:24:17,378 --> 00:24:19,878 但最终占据主导地位 691 00:24:19,878 --> 00:24:20,388 是的 692 00:24:20,388 --> 00:24:21,929 他在此提出很好的观点 693 00:24:21,929 --> 00:24:26,960 每次新技术或变革出现时 694 00:24:28,039 --> 00:24:29,599 都会引发过度投资 695 00:24:29,599 --> 00:24:33,210 因为人人都想参与这个全新事物 696 00:24:33,210 --> 00:24:35,930 铁路是高利润行业 697 00:24:35,930 --> 00:24:37,630 谁在建造这些 698 00:24:37,630 --> 00:24:39,569 如果你再次看看互联网 699 00:24:39,569 --> 00:24:42,089 亚马逊 亚马逊 一九九八年 700 00:24:42,089 --> 00:24:44,309 一九九九年 二零零零年 701 00:24:44,309 --> 00:24:46,130 这并不是一家非常盈利的公司 702 00:24:46,130 --> 00:24:49,690 这不是一家能创造数十亿美元营收的公司 703 00:24:49,690 --> 00:24:51,109 营收高达数百亿美元 704 00:24:51,109 --> 00:24:51,630 不 705 00:24:51,630 --> 00:24:56,319 这家公司甚至在二零零零年时还不满十年 706 00:24:56,319 --> 00:25:04,230 所以为什么我们又要将二零零零年的亚马逊与二零二六年的亚马逊做比较 707 00:25:04,230 --> 00:25:08,569 因为正在构建新基础设施的公司 708 00:25:08,569 --> 00:25:12,089 其中大多数都极其盈利 709 00:25:12,089 --> 00:25:14,970 其中大多数都是成熟企业 710 00:25:16,009 --> 00:25:17,240 并非全部 711 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:18,720 但大多数是 712 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:20,440 所以我们到了二零零三年 713 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:24,480 并在二零二一年四月处于底部 714 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,569 你曾经转为看多吗 715 00:25:34,180 --> 00:25:35,720 所以我是基础 716 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:39,700 而且我 我 我 我 我 我没有口音 717 00:25:39,700 --> 00:25:41,160 随便你 718 00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:45,019 但这就是事实 719 00:25:45,019 --> 00:25:46,220 如果你没有写出来 720 00:25:46,220 --> 00:25:47,740 你就永远说不对 721 00:25:47,740 --> 00:25:48,140 好的 722 00:25:48,140 --> 00:25:50,779 这来自互联网的胡话另当别论 723 00:25:50,779 --> 00:25:51,240 你看 724 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:57,339 问题在于大多数人都是看空者 信不信由你 725 00:25:57,339 --> 00:26:01,480 这个杰里米先生大多数时候也是看空 726 00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:02,200 他有一本书 727 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:03,680 《成为永久看空者》 728 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:03,960 《做空者》 729 00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:07,359 问题在于大多数人都是看空者 730 00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:09,109 就像迈克尔·伯里 731 00:26:09,109 --> 00:26:09,670 嗯 732 00:26:09,670 --> 00:26:13,069 那就是他们大多数时候都判断错误 733 00:26:13,069 --> 00:26:14,869 就像坏钟表 734 00:26:14,869 --> 00:26:16,650 每天两次报准时间 735 00:26:16,650 --> 00:26:17,109 你在 736 00:26:17,109 --> 00:26:19,630 你错过了其余所有机会 737 00:26:19,630 --> 00:26:22,069 作为长期投资者 738 00:26:22,069 --> 00:26:24,650 我虽然并不开心 739 00:26:24,650 --> 00:26:30,829 但愿意偶尔错过某些十年一遇的崩盘 740 00:26:30,829 --> 00:26:31,950 为了我 741 00:26:31,950 --> 00:26:34,519 不错过巨大的牛市行情 742 00:26:34,519 --> 00:26:36,319 因为崩盘 743 00:26:36,319 --> 00:26:38,220 你损失二成到三成 744 00:26:38,220 --> 00:26:39,880 暂且称其为极端情况 745 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:43,970 牛市中你可能赚取五成到六成 746 00:26:43,970 --> 00:26:46,720 你赚取远超五成 747 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:48,960 你能赚取超过一倍 748 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:50,460 有时候两百 749 00:26:50,460 --> 00:26:55,309 而在某些罕见情况下，你可以在长期内让资金增长十倍 750 00:26:55,309 --> 00:26:57,130 所以每当我听到 751 00:26:57,130 --> 00:26:58,670 尤其是迈克尔·贝瑞 752 00:26:58,670 --> 00:27:02,049 每次听到他的一些投资案例 753 00:27:02,210 --> 00:27:03,390 看空 754 00:27:03,390 --> 00:27:09,259 比如公开市场上有足够多的公司，现在你可以看多某些标的 755 00:27:09,259 --> 00:27:11,200 当然现在他正在买入露露乐檬 756 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:11,819 PayPal 757 00:27:11,819 --> 00:27:13,339 我认为Adobe可能更近期 758 00:27:13,339 --> 00:27:16,180 应该是微软之类的公司 759 00:27:16,180 --> 00:27:17,700 但大多数时候是 760 00:27:17,700 --> 00:27:18,200 哦 761 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:19,680 卖吧，价格太高了 762 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:20,599 我持看空态度 763 00:27:20,599 --> 00:27:21,589 我做空 764 00:27:21,589 --> 00:27:25,789 你并不具备识别优质公司的能力 765 00:27:25,789 --> 00:27:29,949 但你足够聪明去试图捕捉市场顶部 766 00:27:29,949 --> 00:27:31,729 这里完全没道理 767 00:27:31,729 --> 00:27:35,720 所以现在这些电视上的专家们 768 00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:37,900 哦，一切都将崩盘 769 00:27:37,900 --> 00:27:40,579 他在CEO播客中阐述理论 770 00:27:40,579 --> 00:27:42,480 你将一无所有 771 00:27:43,700 --> 00:27:44,640 极度看空 772 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:45,700 卖出美国股票 773 00:27:45,700 --> 00:27:47,299 尽管他赚了大部分钱 774 00:27:47,299 --> 00:27:49,880 得益于美国和美国市场 775 00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:51,809 但我想现在他对此感到非常恼火 776 00:27:51,809 --> 00:27:53,990 他们大量投资于石油和天然气 777 00:27:53,990 --> 00:27:57,170 却很少投资气候科技和绿色企业 778 00:27:57,170 --> 00:27:57,670 等等 779 00:27:57,670 --> 00:27:58,089 等等 780 00:27:58,089 --> 00:27:59,900 当然没有偏见 781 00:27:59,900 --> 00:28:03,480 没错，非常客观 782 00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:06,680 当然我知道有些人会说 783 00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:06,960 哦 784 00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:09,299 你只在牛市中获利 785 00:28:09,299 --> 00:28:09,880 不 786 00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:12,380 我不仅在牛市中获利 787 00:28:12,380 --> 00:28:14,240 当然在熊市期间 788 00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:16,720 我在2022年亏损了 789 00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:17,759 我大幅下跌 790 00:28:17,759 --> 00:28:19,039 正如你在这里看到的 791 00:28:19,039 --> 00:28:20,339 当有关税问题时 792 00:28:20,339 --> 00:28:20,920 波动性 793 00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:21,609 是的 794 00:28:21,609 --> 00:28:22,670 我正在下跌 795 00:28:22,670 --> 00:28:25,269 但长期来看 796 00:28:25,269 --> 00:28:29,579 我坚信自己会胜出，业绩超越 797 00:28:29,579 --> 00:28:31,559 也许我到现在还错了 798 00:28:31,559 --> 00:28:32,420 我没错 799 00:28:32,420 --> 00:28:34,440 这不是我自大 800 00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:35,519 不是傲慢 801 00:28:35,519 --> 00:28:38,099 不是什么特殊角色或者什么的 802 00:28:38,099 --> 00:28:42,480 但每次我们听到这些熊市出现并呼吁市场顶部 803 00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:43,900 然后一切都很昂贵 804 00:28:43,900 --> 00:28:45,559 然后你让他们解释 805 00:28:45,559 --> 00:28:46,180 比如 806 00:28:46,180 --> 00:28:48,359 只是我说东西贵 807 00:28:48,359 --> 00:28:51,299 并不意味着会暴跌 808 00:28:51,299 --> 00:28:51,700 是啊 809 00:28:51,700 --> 00:28:51,960 好的 810 00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:52,380 谢谢 811 00:28:52,380 --> 00:28:55,150 我说的是要下雨了 812 00:28:55,150 --> 00:28:56,430 当我也不知道的时候 813 00:28:56,430 --> 00:28:57,509 最终还是会下雨 814 00:28:57,509 --> 00:28:58,369 整个事情 815 00:28:58,369 --> 00:29:00,950 这对我来说没什么道理 816 00:29:00,950 --> 00:29:01,470 好吧 817 00:29:01,470 --> 00:29:02,670 每个人都有自己的节奏 818 00:29:02,670 --> 00:29:06,410 总之我们就说到这里吧 819 00:29:06,410 --> 00:29:10,660 这是我今天为美国观众准备的视频内容 820 00:29:10,660 --> 00:29:14,900 我真心希望比利时能对阵美国 821 00:29:14,900 --> 00:29:16,980 我不觉得是四分之一决赛 822 00:29:17,099 --> 00:29:19,680 可能十六轮左右 823 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:21,319 这会很有趣 824 00:29:21,319 --> 00:29:23,599 但你大概还是会输 825 00:29:23,599 --> 00:29:24,880 这是我今天视频的内容 826 00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:26,039 我们下期再见 827 00:29:26,039 --> 00:29:26,359 再见 828 00:29:26,359 --> 00:29:26,859 再见
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