巴菲特分享：我的—万如何变成一百万？

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我想花几分钟时间

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给你一点宏观视角

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谈谈如何思考投资

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而非只关注当下发生的事

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甚至此刻你正在经历的，来帮助我说明

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我想回顾一段个人经历并

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我们从这里开始

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我这里有

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我现在在纽约

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三月时期

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十二日

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一千

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九百四十二年

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我有点落后面读

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如果回到那个时期

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它

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那大约是

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但刚过三个月

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嗯

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自从我们卷入战争

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当时我们正处于劣势

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报纸头条充斥着太平洋战区的坏消息

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我选取了三月十一日前几天的几个标题

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这些稍后我会解释是对我重要的时刻

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你可以看到这些标题

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呃

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现在展示第二张幻灯片

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我相信

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呃

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然后

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我们处境危急

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太平洋局势极其严峻

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几个月后菲律宾就沦陷了

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我们不断收到坏消息

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或许可以切换到三月九日的幻灯片

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希望你能看清标题内容

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报纸售价三美分

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顺便说一句

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嗯然后

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让我们看看

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现在是三月十日的幻灯片

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一张幻灯片

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嗯

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当我讲到

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当时幻灯片技术已很先进

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我要确认

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我展示的内容和我眼前一致

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总之

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三月十日啊

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再次

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新闻是一条通往澳大利亚的糟糕全面清盘路径

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就像...

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股市已经反映了这一情况

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我一直在关注一只叫城市服务的股票

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优先股

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去年以84美元的价格出售

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上个月一月份以55美元的价格出售

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现在3月10日跌至40美元

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那天晚上

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尽管这些头条新闻

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我对父亲说

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我说我想下定决心

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我想让你为我购买

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第二天买入三股城市中心优先股

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这就是我全部的积蓄

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我的意思是

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这就是我积累的全部资本

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呃

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过去大约五年时间

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所以第二天早上

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父亲买了三股

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让我们看看接下来发生了什么

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切换到下一张幻灯片

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请

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这不是个好日子

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股市

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道指跌破100点

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现在

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下跌了2.28点

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如您所见

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相当于500点的跌幅

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我当时在学校

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疑惑发生了什么

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当然

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顺便说一句，图表左侧

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《纽约时报》

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将道指工业平均数列在所有平均数之下

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他们计算过

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他们有自己的平均数

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这些指标后来消失了

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但道指持续至今

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所以

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第二天

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我们切换到下一张幻灯片

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您将看到发生了什么

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股价在39点

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父亲当天早上立即买入我的股票

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因为我要求他买入三股

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所以我以当日最高价支付了38又四分之一

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这就是当日的最高价

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到了当天结束时，股价跌到了三十七

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这真的很有我一贯的时机特点

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那些未来几年将出现的股票

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嗯但是啊

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当时被称为纽约场外交易所

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后来更名为美国证券交易所

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嗯但是事情

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尽管中途岛战役前战局看似非常糟糕

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啊

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请翻到下一张幻灯片

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请

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你会看到这只股票表现相当不错

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你可以看到我以三又四分之三的价格买入

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然后股票继续上涨

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最终被城市服务公司以每股超过两百美元收购

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但这并非一个好故事

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因为翻到下一页

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你会看到我

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正如我常说的

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当时看起来是个好主意

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你知道的

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所以我卖掉了

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我赚了五美元

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这再次体现了我的行为模式

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但当你看到股价跌至二十七

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你知道那利润看起来很不错

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嗯

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这一切的要点是什么呢

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我们可以抛开城市服务公司的故事

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我再次希望

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想象自己回到一九四二年三月

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十一日

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正如我说的

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欧洲战局同样形势严峻

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以及太平洋战场的情况

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但全国人都知道美国必将赢得战争

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我的意思是

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你知道我们被打了个措手不及

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但我们一定会赢得战争

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而且我们深知美国体系自一七七六年以来一直有效

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请翻到下一张幻灯片

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请想象当时你投入了十万美元

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并将这笔钱投入指数基金

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当时还没有指数基金

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但你实际上购买了标普五百指数

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请仔细思考一下，暂时不要翻页

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请想象这笔十万美元现在值多少钱

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只需一个基本前提

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就像买农场一样

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买来终身持有以实现独立

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你要通过农场的产出来判断自己是否做出了明智的投资

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你要通过公寓楼的收益来决定是否投资明智

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如果你买了一栋小公寓楼作为终身持有

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假设相反的情况

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你决定投入一万美金持有美国企业股份

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从此不再关注其他股票行情

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不再听任何人

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给你任何建议或类似内容

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我希望你想想现在可能有多少资金

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现在你脑海中有了一个数字

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我们进入下一张幻灯片

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答案即将揭晓

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你会拥有五百万美元

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你无需做任何事情

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无需了解会计知识

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无需每日查看行情

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就像我第一天那样

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我已亏损了三美元七十五美分

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当我放学回家时

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你只需相信美国长期会发展良好

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我们将克服当前困难

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如果美国发展良好

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美国企业也会表现优异

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无需挑选赚钱股票

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无需选择最佳时机

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或类似操作

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你只需一生做出一次投资决策

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这并非唯一时机

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我说我可以回溯其他时机

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能带来更大收益

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当你聆听问答环节时

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我们给予时间

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请记住核心问题

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美国企业未来投资表现如何

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终身期

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我想再补充一点

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因为这有点意思

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假设你将一万美金投入

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你听到周围充斥着悲观言论

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这种声音会伴随你一生

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而你选择用一万美金

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将十万美元投入黄金

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你可以购买约三百盎司黄金

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而企业持续投资新工厂和发明

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你的黄金却逐年贬值

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你查看保险箱中的黄金

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只有三盎司

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一百盎司黄金

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你可以观察它

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甚至可以触摸它

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你可以

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我的意思是

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你可以用它做任何你想做的事

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但它从未产出任何东西

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它永远无法产出任何东西

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那你今天会拥有什么

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会有三百盎司的黄金

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就像1942年三月你拥有的那样

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价值约四万美元

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如果你选择投资非生产性资产

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选择黄金而非生产性资产

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而后者实际能带来更多收益并进行再投资和分红

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或许购买股票

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无论是什么

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你现在拥有的价值会是前者的上百倍

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非生产性资产

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换句话说

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对于每美元你在美企获得的收益

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你实际只赚取不到一分钱

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通过购买价值储存工具

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人们告诉你要去那里避险

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每当被头条新闻吓到时

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令人惊叹的是我们国家

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正享受着最强劲的顺风

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作为投资者

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我的意思是几乎不可能失败

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除非买错股票或在错误时机兴奋入场

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但如果你

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如果你持有美国经济的横截面

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并长期持续投入资金啊

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与持有无产出资产相比毫无可比性

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而且

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坦白说

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与频繁买卖股票相比毫无可比性

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还要支付投资顾问费用

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如果你遵循我的建议顺便说

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或这些建议

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总是如此容易给出啊

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如果你遵循这些建议

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00:12:07,259 --> 00:12:08,960
当然有个问题

241
00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:09,639
伙计

242
00:12:09,639 --> 00:12:11,230
你很友好

243
00:12:11,230 --> 00:12:12,850
股票经纪人恐怕会饿死

244
00:12:12,850 --> 00:12:13,309
我的意思是

245
00:12:13,309 --> 00:12:13,590
你知道的

246
00:12:13,590 --> 00:12:17,970
你甚至可以去参加他们的葬礼

247
00:12:17,970 --> 00:12:19,110
但事实是

248
00:12:19,110 --> 00:12:23,860
你这样做会比绝大多数

249
00:12:23,860 --> 00:12:24,340
绝大多数

250
00:12:24,340 --> 00:12:28,019
绝大多数投资专业人士做得更好

251
00:12:28,019 --> 00:12:29,519
或者那些积极参与的人

252
00:12:29,519 --> 00:12:34,480
这确实很难成功行动并击败真正

253
00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:38,448
用非常放松的哲学理念可以做到什么

254
00:12:38,448 --> 00:12:40,200
你并不需要

255
00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:41,559
你并不需要

256
00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:47,229
你不需要了解太多会计或股市术语

257
00:12:47,229 --> 00:12:48,948
或者任何其他相关知识

258
00:12:48,948 --> 00:12:50,948
或者美联储下次会怎么做

259
00:12:50,948 --> 00:12:54,068
无论是加息三倍、四倍还是两倍

260
00:12:54,068 --> 00:12:56,440
这些都不重要

261
00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:58,159
在一生的投资中

262
00:12:58,159 --> 00:13:03,149
真正重要的是拥有一个你所

263
00:13:03,149 --> 00:13:05,769
坚持这一理念

264
00:13:05,769 --> 00:13:07,009
你明白自己为何参与其中

265
00:13:07,009 --> 00:13:08,840
然后忘记去做那些你做的事

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