怎么做正确的决策

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昨天收到一个粉丝群的留言

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那权哥能不能讲一下

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如果说你今天回到35岁

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你在人生角色上会有什么改变吗

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或者你有什么建议吗

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我觉得我在35岁的时候

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就是6年前

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就是2019年嘛

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那个时候我非常迷茫

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但是呢我做了一件事啊

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就我不知道该怎么选择的时候

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做一件事就是做正确的事

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2019年我干了什么呢

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首先第一个报名读了之后

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第二个2019年5月份开了美股账户

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第三个啊着手开始办理美国移民

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这是我认为对的事

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但是当时我为什么会往这方面考虑啊

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我说下当时决策的几个原因啊

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咱第一个2015年

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我公司发展遇到了瓶颈

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从七八个亿开始下滑

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可能业务开始亏损

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然后第二个呢我做了很多新业务

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一直做不起来

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接连失败

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第三个呢就是团队司机不在

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但是我也找不到好的解决方案

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因为你的项目不挣钱

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我怎么给你分钱嘛

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我想来想去

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我觉得呢这个事儿可能跟我有关系

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但是也不是我的问题

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就是我看不到电商的发展前景了

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看不到国内电商的趋势了

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所以我在跨境上疯狂的投入

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实际上我201年我的跨境做的很好

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冷风机快速做起来

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而且利润非常非常可观

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但是呢我犯了很多很多错误

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就是盲目扩张

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就猛砸

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结果20年呢砸了三四十个人团队

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然后很快呢这个物流涨价十倍

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然后把我这个业务第一年搞了

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20年亏了500多万吧

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所以那个时候呢我就在反思啊

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那亏完钱之后呢

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我第二件事是什么呢

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我让原班人马转型做直播去了

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这是我做的第二个人生观的错误决策

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这两个角色呢就大概前前后后亏了1000万啊

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实际上钱真的不是最重要的哈

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就是时间

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还有你的精神气儿快没了

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实际上我从20年二一年

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22年的3年的状态非常非常差

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但是呢虽然很差

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我做的决策都没错

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就是砍砍砍

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那3年我的团队砍掉了80%到90

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然后第二个呢我就开始爬山思考了

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各位

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就今天我的习惯是从22年以后养成的

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而不是2019年

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就在2019年

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我做的所有的错误都是惯性思维

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然后习惯性的用原来的这种逻辑去做事

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但是呢我还保持了很多好的动作啊

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就是没有停下来

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就一直在尝试

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一直在思考

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一直在反思

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如果说呵今天我要提什么建议

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我提的第一个建议是你要学会看人

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你一定要看准人啊

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就是不要跟一个连续失败两次以上的人

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任何机会

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这个是我过去所有创业里面呢

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我可能做的错误事最多的就是老是抱有幻想啊

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梦想可以有啊

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幻想不要有

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就是你的所有的梦想给到那些经常成功的人

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而不是经常失败的人

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但凡一个人失败两次以上

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绝对有问题

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就不要再给机会了

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就一次就够了

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我们根本就凑不起

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那第二个呢就是你要往外看

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而不要内卷内卷

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这个事是绝对错的

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我比别人唯一强的是什么呢

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就当这个事情发生的时候

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我会反思啊

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我会反复的像今天一样

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那爬山想个三五个小时

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反复的想啊

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我是错

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来哪里

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怎么错的啊

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我如果回到原点

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我该怎么样改变

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就这个事我会瞎很长时间往脑袋想报

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所以呢下一次我就不会再犯错误了

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所以各位如果今天我提建议

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就是你要学会思考

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这个思考呢不是检讨啊

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不是忏悔

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而是退回原点

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就想如果今天你重新再来一次

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你这条路该怎么选

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你会不会选对

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因为接下来你还会有机会的

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各位

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这就是投资的真实逻辑

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就投资永远不要怕买不到好的公司

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好公司都有

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你是不是真的能看懂

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如果你看懂

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你永远不要担心没有机会

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但如果你看不懂机会和陷阱

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你也分不清啊

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所以这个事做正确的事和坚持做这个事呢

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是非常非常关键的

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其实呢还有一个就是201819年的时候呢

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我没有盲目对

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那个时候呢我看到了大家很多人赚钱啊

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无论是直播也好

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很多爱好

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我没有特别盲目的

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是说我没有爸规模

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还有利润呢

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完全分开

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我觉得这个日也要赚钱

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如果不赚钱

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我肯定不会熬

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对这个事很重要啊

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大部分人亏在什么地方呢

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就是熬就是煎熬

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我基本上一个项目200万

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亏没就没了

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200万是什么呢

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就是我给这个项目的所有预算资金

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亏完拉倒亏完证明我们做不起来

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所以今天这个时代为什么说不要狂熬呢

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它和过去不一样

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各位增量时代啊

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就如果这个事是增量时代

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你可以熬

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因为熬一熬呢你总是可以回来

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对不对

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熬一熬呢你总是可能看到希望它今天不行

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今天这个时代呢你不管怎么熬也没有用啊

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为啥我给大家讲讲啊

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任何赛道都是一个下滑市场

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任何赛道都是一个说难听点非常极端的市场

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就今天比如说我去黑上投资啊

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如果我是2026年级分项投资

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我比2022年分享投资的难度啊

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大了不止十倍

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因为所有人都出来了

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所有人都在假

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你的对手一下增长了十倍以上

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但你的用户数不但没有增加

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还下滑了

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所以各位你在选择实际上很关键

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你买股票一样

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股票价格也很重要对吧

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你比美光

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我是200块钱买

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你是1200买

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这完全两种心态啊

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200块钱买腰斩

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还有三倍

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1200

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跌个20%

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你真的受不了

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我跟你讲

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所以呢就这个时候你要考虑时机

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在正确的时机啊

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做正确的决策

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然后呢重仓

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这是巴菲特说的原话啊

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就是好工资报贴拿盆来接

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但是呢你这种机会怎么来的呢

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就是你靠你日积月累啊

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平时呢多思考

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然后呢多总结

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还有一条呢就是不要在人堆里扎的啊

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就我给大家讲这个逻辑啊

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就是这个人啊哈就是我说话很直接

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很难听

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告大家啊

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就但凡的价值观不一致

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你都不要看多一眼

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知道吗

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纯浪费时间

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浪费感情

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所以价值观这东西它天生的就是人为利

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人以群分

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就是你在做任何的决策的时候

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你要把你的时间成本放第一位

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所以为什么我给我的时间定价一小时20万啊

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为什么定价呢

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不是装逼

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是为了排除那些不值钱的人和事儿

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就是你的时间宁可在山里面发呆啊思考

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然后跟狗玩

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你也不要轻易把你的宝贵的时间

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用于那些价值观不一致的人上

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因为它会消耗你的精力

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这个人的心劲儿一旦飘好了

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我告诉你

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你就很难元气恢复

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我是非常的一个典型的案例啊

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就是当我这个人呢其实哈还是很愿意分享啊

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对人其实还是蛮真诚的啊

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我不是自夸啊

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我帮人真的帮到底

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但是呢我在过去的创业前10年

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把心劲全消耗没了

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你看我是一个非常有能量的人

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练体育的

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就这样被消耗到什么程度了

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就是烦

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你知道吧

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就是你的这种恶习

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就是那种坏的脾气

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暴躁的脾气

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还有那种压抑给了你最亲近的人啊

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比如说你家人啊

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这些家人这些损害是无法比拟的啊

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到今天为止

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我就想每次想起来那些经历啊

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00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:17,829
哈对这个老婆孩子曾经发过的脾气啊

237
00:07:17,829 --> 00:07:20,610
就感觉非常不应该不值得知道吗

238
00:07:20,610 --> 00:07:22,769
但是呢你的好脾气给谁了呢

239
00:07:22,769 --> 00:07:25,089
给了那些价值观不一致的那些索取者

240
00:07:25,089 --> 00:07:28,619
所以呢如果说我今天给大家郑重的提建议

241
00:07:28,619 --> 00:07:29,639
包括创业者提建议

242
00:07:29,639 --> 00:07:32,098
就是你在人身上花的时间

243
00:07:32,098 --> 00:07:34,240
思考的时间一定要比事上多

244
00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:36,079
我们都是干活的人啊

245
00:07:36,079 --> 00:07:37,800
天天琢磨怎么样做产品

246
00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:38,399
做市场啊

247
00:07:38,399 --> 00:07:38,879
做业绩

248
00:07:38,879 --> 00:07:39,620
做利润

249
00:07:39,620 --> 00:07:41,579
但是呢我们不愿意琢磨人

250
00:07:41,579 --> 00:07:43,959
但是恰恰你要多琢磨人

251
00:07:43,959 --> 00:07:45,199
要多看人

252
00:07:45,199 --> 00:07:46,500
你要多想人

253
00:07:46,500 --> 00:07:48,920
你要想这个人是不是适合你的

254
00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:50,459
是不是能跟你一块成长呢

255
00:07:50,459 --> 00:07:52,019
是不是将来大家还能10年

256
00:07:52,019 --> 00:07:52,980
20年还能走到一块的

257
00:07:52,980 --> 00:07:53,540
他说不是

258
00:07:53,540 --> 00:07:54,300
就不要干

259
00:07:54,300 --> 00:07:54,980
就很多人说

260
00:07:54,980 --> 00:07:56,860
那我我不我没有人没有人才

261
00:07:56,860 --> 00:07:57,259
怎么办

262
00:07:57,259 --> 00:07:57,920
不干呀

263
00:07:57,920 --> 00:07:58,500
自己干呀

264
00:07:58,500 --> 00:07:59,259
像今天一样的

265
00:07:59,259 --> 00:08:00,180
我都不自己干嘛

266
00:08:00,180 --> 00:08:01,300
到现在我也自己干

267
00:08:01,300 --> 00:08:03,718
我不我现在我也不会浪费时间给到这行人

268
00:08:03,718 --> 00:08:04,399
因为我有助理

269
00:08:04,399 --> 00:08:05,879
但我跟助理呢也会交流啊

270
00:08:05,879 --> 00:08:06,720
也会分析

271
00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:08,920
但是呢我也没有说花很长时间说啊

272
00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:10,439
我们去反复的开会啊

273
00:08:10,439 --> 00:08:10,759
探讨

274
00:08:10,759 --> 00:08:11,199
不是这样的

275
00:08:11,199 --> 00:08:14,120
各位如果这个事很简单

276
00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:15,040
他能做好

277
00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:16,120
他就你不用讲

278
00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:16,839
他也能做

279
00:08:16,839 --> 00:08:18,439
如果这个事对他讲很难

280
00:08:18,439 --> 00:08:20,490
你再教也是很难

281
00:08:20,490 --> 00:08:21,730
所以你就明白这个逻辑

282
00:08:21,730 --> 00:08:23,629
就是所有的东西他都是匹配

283
00:08:23,629 --> 00:08:25,069
那匹配的人怎么找呢

284
00:08:25,069 --> 00:08:26,709
就是你需要是吧

285
00:08:26,709 --> 00:08:27,389
广撒网

286
00:08:27,389 --> 00:08:28,269
像今天一样啊

287
00:08:28,269 --> 00:08:29,089
我我有IP

288
00:08:29,089 --> 00:08:30,069
你我想找谁

289
00:08:30,069 --> 00:08:30,750
很很简单

290
00:08:30,750 --> 00:08:31,870
你有几百万粉丝

291
00:08:31,870 --> 00:08:33,429
选几个人很容易

292
00:08:33,429 --> 00:08:35,639
但是如果你在过去的时候面试

293
00:08:35,639 --> 00:08:36,339
那就完蛋了

294
00:08:36,339 --> 00:08:37,239
所以你要怎么办呢

295
00:08:37,239 --> 00:08:38,658
你到人才密度高的地方

296
00:08:38,658 --> 00:08:39,259
比如深圳啊

297
00:08:39,259 --> 00:08:39,739
广东啊

298
00:08:39,739 --> 00:08:40,219
北京啊

299
00:08:40,219 --> 00:08:40,909
杭州啊

300
00:08:40,909 --> 00:08:41,870
临川密度高的地方

301
00:08:41,870 --> 00:08:43,809
去那个地方呢就容易知道吗

302
00:08:43,809 --> 00:08:45,269
而且我好歹还搞大一点啊

303
00:08:45,269 --> 00:08:48,289
就是人才是最便宜的

304
00:08:48,289 --> 00:08:49,529
人是最贵的

305
00:08:49,529 --> 00:08:50,830
但人才最便宜的

306
00:08:50,830 --> 00:08:53,470
就你遭错一个人的代价给你带来的损失

307
00:08:53,470 --> 00:08:53,990
就像我一样

308
00:08:53,990 --> 00:08:54,740
几千万

309
00:08:54,740 --> 00:08:55,639
那那都是

310
00:08:55,639 --> 00:08:57,259
那还不是包括时间成本

311
00:08:57,259 --> 00:08:58,620
那可能本来该赚几千万的

312
00:08:58,620 --> 00:08:59,779
给你亏几千万

313
00:08:59,779 --> 00:09:01,379
但是人才为什么便宜呢

314
00:09:01,379 --> 00:09:02,419
他只要匹配

315
00:09:02,419 --> 00:09:03,600
他做起来很简单

316
00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:04,659
他给你赚了收益

317
00:09:04,659 --> 00:09:07,840
你拿出来百分之几给他都可以

318
00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:08,960
就他给你赚1000万

319
00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:09,919
你给他个100万

320
00:09:09,919 --> 00:09:10,659
其实很便宜

321
00:09:10,659 --> 00:09:11,840
因为你要多赚900万嘛

322
00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:15,370
所以呢你爸的一些哈这些真正的前瞻性的

323
00:09:15,370 --> 00:09:16,210
包括本质的东西

324
00:09:16,210 --> 00:09:16,830
想明白

325
00:09:16,830 --> 00:09:19,330
实际上这个人呢今天的机会还是很多

326
00:09:19,330 --> 00:09:21,450
因为我最近也见了很多会员兄弟嘛

327
00:09:21,450 --> 00:09:24,700
哈就是这一两年啊

328
00:09:24,700 --> 00:09:27,350
你还我陈毅兄弟做健身器材的好

329
00:09:27,350 --> 00:09:28,870
现在一年十个亿啊

330
00:09:28,870 --> 00:09:29,909
各把各地的利润啊

331
00:09:29,909 --> 00:09:31,470
去年还增到50%啊

332
00:09:31,470 --> 00:09:34,940
再比如说这个保健品的十个亿赚一个亿哈

333
00:09:34,940 --> 00:09:36,379
再减价下降到50%

334
00:09:36,379 --> 00:09:37,440
所以实际上说明什么呢

335
00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:39,570
说明这个是行业啊

336
00:09:39,570 --> 00:09:40,909
还是有很多的机会

337
00:09:40,909 --> 00:09:44,190
但是嘿嘿你的人产品渠道

338
00:09:44,190 --> 00:09:46,070
还有你的思维方式啊

339
00:09:46,070 --> 00:09:47,090
是不是能够打开

340
00:09:47,090 --> 00:09:48,759
这个非常非常关键

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