美股：可能快变盘了。【2026-06-26】

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哈喽大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经周末点评

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我是SUNY

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今天是2026年6月26号星期五

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跌幅万分之五

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几乎跟昨天的收盘持平

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指数低开后走高

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收盘小阳线看起来获得了60日均线的支撑

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下周可能会在绿色的这条60日线上反弹

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整体K线形态是震荡的三角形

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三角形整理是阶段整理形态不会变成头部

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指数经过了4月以来的上涨

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先是连涨九个星期后又整理四个星期

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时间上存在变盘的需要

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标普指数已经连续四周阴线

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在此之前

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指数是每周都上涨

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调整之后大盘要选择方向

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向下的概率应该小于向上的

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跌幅0.24%

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险守60日线

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指数在震荡中还看不出有什么形态

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看半天有点怕变成C浪下跌啊

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最好下周在60日线上反弹吧

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反弹了就继续震荡

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以时间换空间好了

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有位观众说就想问一下

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天天看K线对炒股业绩有多大帮助

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K线本质上是个统计图

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如果和彩票的开奖走势图相比

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K线图肯定是有用的

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它是基于历史不断重演的假设

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也是人性无法改变的写照

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但是它并不是精确计量的公式或者是科学指标

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它就是一个参照物

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短线交易者利用短周期的K线快速交易

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突破才买

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强制到点止损

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做到每笔平均盈利远大于每笔平均亏损

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则完全可以做到稳定盈利

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长期投资最好少去管

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每天波动主要是要研究基本面

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天天看K线图确实是很干扰

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美联储收紧政策的预期

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是本周股市下跌的主要原因

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PCE公布后超过了预期

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主要是能源价格上涨

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直接和间接导致PCE回升

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市场谈及加息而色变

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下半年不但降息无望

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加息还可能有1~3次人狠话不多的务实

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非常坚持把通胀拉回2%的政策目标

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这样的话

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货币政策从紧

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就是未来一段时间的持续利空因素

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潜在的通胀压力过高

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美联储在通胀和就业两个目标平衡时

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目前问题主要体现在通胀方面

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不过因为沃实主张减少前瞻指引

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古尔斯比也就没有预测

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九到12月份是不是会加息

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芝加哥交易所的预测工具显示

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年底之前加息一次的概率

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最高为41.8%

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加息两次是27%

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三次是7.4%

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扣除23.1%的概率

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预测利率不变

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剩下的76.9%

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预测了不同程度的加息

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因此可以说年内加息已经上升为高概率事件

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像2022年的加息周期开始之前

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股市进入熊市

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利率上升对科技股的打击是比较大的

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虽然本次加息周期幅度有限

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但有加息就是利空

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加息极有可能成为美股阶段性调整的主要原因

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另外本周中间韩国股市跌

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熔断和SPACEX冲高后跌破上市最低价

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都打击了市场人气

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韩国两大存储巨头忽涨忽跌

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跌的时候

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美股存储板块发生共振

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因此也一并下跌

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在美元加息和升值时

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资本回流

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美国

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新兴经济体面临资本流出的压力

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韩国股市可能会从情绪上影响

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美股作用的时间短暂

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最近股市震荡回调

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有一个原因

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可能是基金在平衡机构有严格的资产配置目标

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比如六成股票

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四成债券

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要是股票涨得多

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股票的占比可能因为上涨而超过了六成

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这就要求他们要减少股票

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增加债券再平衡的时间

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通常是在季末

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也就是最近这段时间股市涨得多

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债券没怎么涨

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所以卖出一些股票就形成了寂寞减持压力

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这也就影响一小段时间

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不会影响更长期的趋势

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SPCX上市后上涨三天即告下跌

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本周跌破了上市后的最低价

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但还没有破发

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发行价是135

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未来破发的概率并不小

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不过接下来有被动基金会买入

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还能让股价撑一阵子

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SPACEX的冲高回落

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也打击了市场投机的人气

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此外被动基金为了买它还得腾挪原来的仓位

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那这个就对原来的权重股形成的卖出的压力

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接下来他将加入罗素1000和纳指120个指数

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罗素是比较快

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下周一就会加入

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估计再过一周

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纳指100也会加入

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这样总共可以配置到50亿左右的被动ETF基金

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一年内基本每一个月都会有新增的限售股解禁

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同时增加ETF的配置比例

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解禁越多

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ETF就要给他腾挪越多的资金

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所以这支股上市后

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对股市整体还是构成了一定的负面影响

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另外OpenAI和ANTHROPIC也是万亿级别的

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超级大盘股

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要排队上市

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今天有一则消息称

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OpenAI推迟上市

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这到底是好事还是坏事呢

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OpenAI可能会将今年IPO的计划推迟到2027年

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推迟的原因可能是看到SPACEX上市后迅速下跌

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SPCX上市估值极高

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不给二级市场留多少空间

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如果有样学样上来

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万一市场不买账

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一上市就破发

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那奥特曼的面子没地方放啊

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另外奥特曼希望上市估值1万亿以上

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如果暂时支撑不了1万亿

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他可能会等待时机

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大型IPO暂缓

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对美股的资金面是有利的

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IPO就是把市场上的钱拿走

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这对股市来说相当于抽走流动性

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1万亿的公司

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多上几家

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市场上的钱就会很吃紧

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所以OpenAI推迟到明年上市

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总的来说是好事

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但是对AI叙事来说又不怎么好

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我们以前在人工智能关联交易途中

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就知道人工智能高端圈子里

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你投资我

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我才有钱买你数据中心的循环交易模式

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那么在这个模式中

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OpenAI这种大模型公司是核心玩家之一

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它要是上市了

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钱多了

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整个人工智能圈子又能继续

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你投资我

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我买你硬件了

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他要是晚上市了

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甚至没钱撑下去了

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那么之前AI互相交易的玩法就玩不下去了

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和OpenAI推迟IPO有一定的关系

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半导体里头的人气龙头

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存储板块大涨一天大跌一天

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出现了高位剧烈震荡的情况

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闪迪昨天涨了21%

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波动很大

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但是你要从图上看又不觉得大

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这是由图表的统计图特征决定的

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涨幅涨个2000块

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跌个几百

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看起来没有那么多

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但早期持股和最近才买入的

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他们感觉就不一样了

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昨天封某进去

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今天马上打九折

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早期几百块钱买的

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那无非是利润回吐一点

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涨幅巨大之后

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必然伴随大起大落

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筹码松动

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获利丰厚的人想卖出外头的资金

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想买入

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卖出的人一看涨了不甘心又重新买入

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所以呢在一只股涨疯了之后

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高位剧烈波动是一定会出现的

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和闪迪相同板块的美光市值已经很高

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考虑到美光已经1万多亿了

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短线波动大可能是一个好的投机工具

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但投资的剩余价值可能就比较有限了

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有一位观众连续在评论区警告存储股的风险

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他是这么说的

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内存价格指数在3月底见顶后一直横盘

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闪存价格指数略有下降

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美光财报说

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价格实现60%到80%的

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季度增长的

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这是如何做到呢

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这份财报让人细思极恐

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好感谢这位观众把这么重要的信息分享给大家

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内存价格确实从3月份以后就没再上涨了

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但是镁光财报的增长核心不是d ram

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那些内存产品

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而是HBM高带宽内存

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网络上可以查到的

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收费或免费的数据并不覆盖HBM

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美国把有限的产能结构性的调整给利润更高的

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HBM结构性增量和产能增量

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应该是美光财报好的原因

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不过从内存指数可以看出

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涨是涨了

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但停止上涨了

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这就是存储股一个警告信号了

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话说OpenAI推迟上市

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大模跌了4.08%

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两个准备给OpenAI承销的投行下跌

225
00:10:05,599 --> 00:10:07,739
投行赚钱非常快啊

226
00:10:07,739 --> 00:10:09,239
把公司搞上市

227
00:10:09,239 --> 00:10:13,200
佣金可以拿几10亿投资银行业务收入啊

228
00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:16,139
本来是算到了银行的预期收入当中的

229
00:10:16,139 --> 00:10:18,080
这一推迟到明年的话

230
00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:20,509
今年的营收预期就要下调

231
00:10:20,509 --> 00:10:22,359
所以股价下跌

232
00:10:22,719 --> 00:10:24,099
美国的金融股

233
00:10:24,099 --> 00:10:25,739
尤其是大的银行

234
00:10:25,739 --> 00:10:28,019
股价长期看是上涨的

235
00:10:28,019 --> 00:10:29,499
短线的下跌流

236
00:10:29,499 --> 00:10:31,779
从长期看都不算什么事

237
00:10:31,779 --> 00:10:33,080
今年不上市

238
00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:36,539
明年上承销费晚点拿就是了

239
00:10:36,539 --> 00:10:39,139
美国的科技巨头是全球赚钱

240
00:10:39,139 --> 00:10:42,099
欧洲总是想着收数字服务税

241
00:10:42,099 --> 00:10:43,558
今天消息称

242
00:10:43,558 --> 00:10:46,639
川普威胁对欧洲征收百分之百关税

243
00:10:46,639 --> 00:10:49,389
就是针对这个数字服务税来的

244
00:10:49,389 --> 00:10:50,190
他说啊

245
00:10:50,190 --> 00:10:52,529
如果别的国家对数字服务收税

246
00:10:52,529 --> 00:10:56,220
他将对这些国家征收百分之百的关税

247
00:10:56,539 --> 00:10:59,460
美国保护科技巨头在全球做生意

248
00:10:59,460 --> 00:11:01,990
因为这是美国核心竞争力

249
00:11:01,990 --> 00:11:05,649
你别看经常项目下美国是进出口逆差

250
00:11:05,649 --> 00:11:07,830
川普整天讲美国逆差

251
00:11:07,830 --> 00:11:09,450
让别人赚钱了

252
00:11:09,450 --> 00:11:11,950
实际上逆差把美元输出

253
00:11:11,950 --> 00:11:17,750
让全球用他的美元数字服务无国界赚的钱还多

254
00:11:17,750 --> 00:11:20,629
这不会算到国际贸易逆差当中的

255
00:11:20,629 --> 00:11:23,429
美股科技巨头还是很值得投资的

256
00:11:23,429 --> 00:11:24,730
不看短线

257
00:11:24,730 --> 00:11:26,960
我觉得买入才对

258
00:11:27,279 --> 00:11:30,440
微软昨天跌到了战争底和关税底

259
00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:33,149
一年来大幅跑输标普指数

260
00:11:33,149 --> 00:11:35,409
但业绩还是稳定向上

261
00:11:35,409 --> 00:11:38,090
市场暂时放弃它的原因是

262
00:11:38,090 --> 00:11:41,500
大规模资本开支会吃掉自由现金流

263
00:11:41,500 --> 00:11:43,820
还有就是微软是软字

264
00:11:43,820 --> 00:11:46,340
当头说AI会替代软件

265
00:11:47,419 --> 00:11:49,509
这两个理由都很牵强

266
00:11:49,509 --> 00:11:51,990
未来大概率会证明是错误的

267
00:11:51,990 --> 00:11:53,830
只是股价在6月份跌

268
00:11:53,830 --> 00:11:56,279
成了2000年以来最惨的一个月

269
00:11:56,279 --> 00:11:59,210
我也没办法再给他唱多了

270
00:11:59,450 --> 00:12:02,769
我们的观众对微软这个话题的评论好

271
00:12:02,769 --> 00:12:04,710
我选了两条分享一下

272
00:12:04,710 --> 00:12:05,899
第一条

273
00:12:05,899 --> 00:12:08,299
这次微软给我的教训就是

274
00:12:08,299 --> 00:12:10,519
我以后尽量不买个股了

275
00:12:10,519 --> 00:12:12,509
买大盘最省心

276
00:12:12,509 --> 00:12:15,750
但是现在这个情况微软亏了太多

277
00:12:15,750 --> 00:12:16,769
不去补仓

278
00:12:16,769 --> 00:12:18,909
拉低成本不行

279
00:12:19,740 --> 00:12:20,879
第二条

280
00:12:20,879 --> 00:12:22,919
SUNDY现在不敢随便说话

281
00:12:22,919 --> 00:12:23,860
做决定啦

282
00:12:23,860 --> 00:12:26,840
比如微软现在到底是加仓的好时机

283
00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:29,429
还是应该避开了一只股票呢

284
00:12:29,429 --> 00:12:32,649
现在跟着你炒股的粉丝该怎么操作啊

285
00:12:32,649 --> 00:12:34,590
给个方向也好啊

286
00:12:34,590 --> 00:12:41,009
嘻那我非常同意直接买voo o s spy qq q

287
00:12:41,009 --> 00:12:42,340
非常省事

288
00:12:42,340 --> 00:12:43,399
回撤低

289
00:12:43,399 --> 00:12:44,740
夏普比率好

290
00:12:44,740 --> 00:12:46,318
性价比高

291
00:12:46,639 --> 00:12:47,558
再说了

292
00:12:47,558 --> 00:12:51,058
这些指数基金里面本来就有巨头的仓位

293
00:12:51,058 --> 00:12:53,149
间接也是持有的

294
00:12:53,149 --> 00:12:57,309
巴菲特年轻的时候就公开打赌说谁跑得赢指数

295
00:12:57,309 --> 00:12:58,690
他就捐100万

296
00:12:58,690 --> 00:13:03,529
结果就是没多少基金经理敢挑战参加挑战的人

297
00:13:03,529 --> 00:13:04,990
最后也没有跑赢指数

298
00:13:05,990 --> 00:13:06,350
嗨

299
00:13:06,350 --> 00:13:09,149
实在是被这个个股给整怕了

300
00:13:09,149 --> 00:13:10,490
就买指数呗

301
00:13:10,490 --> 00:13:12,570
我就不信手气那么差

302
00:13:12,570 --> 00:13:13,870
一买就跌

303
00:13:13,870 --> 00:13:16,889
买个大盘还能把大盘搞崩盘了

304
00:13:16,889 --> 00:13:21,009
行买指数我不是不敢做决定了

305
00:13:21,009 --> 00:13:24,090
其实我有倾向好的公司

306
00:13:24,090 --> 00:13:26,070
估值合理的情况下

307
00:13:26,070 --> 00:13:28,299
未来EPS也是看涨的

308
00:13:28,299 --> 00:13:30,419
估值只会越来越低

309
00:13:30,419 --> 00:13:32,690
总会有涨回去的一天

310
00:13:33,009 --> 00:13:35,818
那我拉一个人来壮胆好了

311
00:13:35,818 --> 00:13:39,538
大空头MICROBERRY居然看好微软

312
00:13:39,538 --> 00:13:42,438
他说要珍惜350的微软

313
00:13:42,438 --> 00:13:45,250
350是绝佳买点

314
00:13:46,129 --> 00:13:48,899
空头唱多还真不多见啊

315
00:13:48,899 --> 00:13:53,940
这家伙做空过英伟达PANTEER非成半导体指数

316
00:13:53,940 --> 00:13:56,740
现在他说微软可以买了

317
00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:01,039
软件消费电子

318
00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:06,980
防御股也得到了资金的关照

319
00:14:06,980 --> 00:14:10,750
这说明股市的结构矛盾已经很明显了

320
00:14:10,750 --> 00:14:13,370
半导体硬件对资金的虹吸效应

321
00:14:13,370 --> 00:14:16,828
是其他板块不涨甚至下跌的原因

322
00:14:16,828 --> 00:14:18,208
硬件下跌

323
00:14:18,208 --> 00:14:19,668
软件就上涨了

324
00:14:19,668 --> 00:14:23,220
这种跷跷板效应以前并不多见

325
00:14:23,539 --> 00:14:26,240
软件股放在以前是很赚钱的生意

326
00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:29,700
多一个人用软件并不会多出什么成本

327
00:14:29,700 --> 00:14:31,059
边际收益高

328
00:14:31,059 --> 00:14:32,589
毛利率高

329
00:14:32,908 --> 00:14:35,749
并不是所有软件都会被AI替代

330
00:14:35,749 --> 00:14:40,700
无可替代的软件会整合AI功能变得更好用

331
00:14:41,179 --> 00:14:42,379
说到防御谷

332
00:14:42,379 --> 00:14:44,820
昨天有观众问到了其中的一只

333
00:14:44,820 --> 00:14:47,409
这位观众说请教三里

334
00:14:47,409 --> 00:14:49,149
麦当劳最近也破位

335
00:14:49,149 --> 00:14:51,490
手里现有的长期持有的话

336
00:14:51,490 --> 00:14:53,110
还能继续拿着吗

337
00:14:53,110 --> 00:14:55,809
已经接近十个点了

338
00:14:55,809 --> 00:14:58,549
好那我们就来看一下MCD

339
00:14:58,549 --> 00:15:00,450
现在还是一个不错的点位

340
00:15:00,450 --> 00:15:03,870
看短线天一天下跌不怎么好啊

341
00:15:03,870 --> 00:15:05,570
但是要看长期呢

342
00:15:05,570 --> 00:15:07,940
上升通道非常完美

343
00:15:07,940 --> 00:15:11,320
咱们把日线图切换成周线图好

344
00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:13,539
这个上涨趋势就非常稳定

345
00:15:13,539 --> 00:15:15,240
而且非常慢

346
00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:16,159
翻一倍

347
00:15:16,159 --> 00:15:17,500
花好多年

348
00:15:17,500 --> 00:15:20,299
这样的股如果亏损出局

349
00:15:20,299 --> 00:15:22,100
那也太吃亏了

350
00:15:22,100 --> 00:15:24,230
建议坚持到盈利

351
00:15:24,230 --> 00:15:26,470
最后看一下公开账户

352
00:15:26,470 --> 00:15:30,009
我这IPKR公开账户今天变动不大

353
00:15:30,009 --> 00:15:32,029
净值是19.3万

354
00:15:32,029 --> 00:15:34,389
特斯拉下周迎接轿车数据

355
00:15:34,389 --> 00:15:37,570
销量同比增长可能会在5.7%吧

356
00:15:37,570 --> 00:15:40,149
可能股价会有所反弹

357
00:15:40,509 --> 00:15:42,629
好那今天的节目就分享到这里

358
00:15:42,629 --> 00:15:43,590
感谢大家收看

359
00:15:43,590 --> 00:15:44,730
祝大家周末愉快

360
00:15:44,730 --> 00:15:46,029
我们下期节目再见

361
00:15:46,029 --> 00:15:46,740
拜拜

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