【Financial Education】2026年7月：16只值得现在买入的股票

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我们来看看这个

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女士们先生们

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AMD的财报将在几周后公布

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既然已经确认了

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8月4日将是AMD财报日期

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我想谈谈我对这只股票的预期

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在财报发布前

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财报发布后的预期

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这只股票会怎样发展

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今天视频里所有重要内容

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然后我们要讨论十六只股票

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计划在2026年7月买入并持有

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期待按顺序分享我的观点和见解

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我认为现在市场最佳买入标的

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大量资金即将涌入

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这些排名如何

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接下来完成这部分分析后

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我要谈谈Tom Lee对市场走势的看法

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然后介绍Mike Wills

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以及他对市场和半导体股票的观点

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如果你持有AMD

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如果你持有Micro SSD

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英伟达

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博通

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这些公司中的任何一家

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我很期待听到Mike

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Wilson的意见

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我也想分享我对半导体股票的看法

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因为这些股票正处于高波动期

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感谢大家一如既往的支持

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我们还有很多内容要讲

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请快速点赞这个视频

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我正在纽约市的酒店房间录制

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再次感谢大家的陪伴

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下方评论区的链接是加入私密群的等待名单

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私密群目前不接受新成员

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但我们正在接受等待名单申请

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如果你想加入私密群

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当重新开放时

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无论何时对新成员

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你可以优先加入

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通过加入等待名单

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顺便说一句，订阅频道

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如果你还没订阅的话

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请务必订阅

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Rimd

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我对AMD股票在财报前的预期是什么

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我对AMD股票财报后的预期是什么

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好的

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总之

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好的

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听着，市场在财报季应该会非常强劲

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假设市场表现正常对吧

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你知道如果整个市场崩盘

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或者类似的情况

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在这种市场环境下，很难让md保持坚挺

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但假设市场保持横盘整理

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在接下来三到四周的财报季前

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嗯，尤其是如果出现小幅上涨

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我认为a和d会在财报季表现强劲

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我认为很多人认为这将是史上最令人兴奋的

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指导方针编号amd将创下长时间以来的最佳报告

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因此我认为会有很多炒作

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这些财报发布前将充满期待

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尤其是针对这份指引

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并非上季度的业绩数字

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但当前的指引是什么

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财报公布后会发生什么

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如果数据如此惊人

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它可能会在财报后继续上涨

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本质上

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当我提到财报公布后

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我并不一定指仅仅下个交易日

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因为次日市场可能相当动荡

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但我在谈论接下来几周股票的走势

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你知道两到三周

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在那个时间点四周左右

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没错，存在潜在机会

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如果市场在进入

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你知道接下来三到四周

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存在AMD可能进入财报期的潜在可能

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前面有六个数字

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好的

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不要对这件事抱太大希望

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但我要说的是确实存在这种可能性

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因为这只股票在过去几个月积累了大量动能

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该股票将迎来大量关注和兴奋情绪

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因为很多人会认为这只股票

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假设它现在处于这个位置

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我认为股价在520美元以下

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对，如果它能引领

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如果它仍然在这里

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甚至更低的入账收益

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天啊

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我认为当指引发布时的上涨走势现在可能疯狂

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当然总存在潜在可能

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就像指引还没到位对吧

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指引没什么特别亮眼的表现

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所以我们不能仅假设因为我相信指引会带来惊喜

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而且它只会是一个大幅增长的数字

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华尔街预期之外的部分

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我们不能确定这一定会发生

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总存在这种可能性不会发生

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但我只是在观察

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从gpu需求真正爆发在下一季度的角度

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我认为这将

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大幅提升数字远超华尔街预期

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但在cpu需求方面

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我觉得他们定价方面考虑不足

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以及cell业务在下一季度的表现

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这就是为什么我认为指引数字会很大

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远超华尔街当前预期

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现在要记住

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丽莎·苏·劳通常会留有余地

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所以她总是会给出

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通常她会自信能超出预期

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尤其是在营收预测方面

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假设苏提出的数据

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管理层公布的数据

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将远超华尔街预期

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需要明白

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实际数据可能更好

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当真实数据公布时

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基本上就是第四季度

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如果数据远超预期

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就会引发大家说

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哦

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下个季度会更好于预期

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所有人都需要提高预期

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分析师开始上调营收预测

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针对下一季度

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全年业绩

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这类情况

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这些分析师不断为AMD提高目标价

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接下来将是营收和每股收益

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如果利润率超出预期

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也会提高利润率

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然后形成完美组合

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股票随之上涨

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引发更多目标价上调

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因为市场严重滞后

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嗯

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这简直太美妙了

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好的

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这就是我对AMD的预期

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嗯

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在接下来三到四周财报前

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财报公布后

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好的

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接下来就是

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让我们来看看现在值得买入的16只股票

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那我该如何对这些股票进行排序呢？哪些是最值得买入的

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好的现在开始

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明白了

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听好了

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16只股票中包括网飞在70美元区间

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 Celsius在30美元区间

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耐克在40美元区间

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Elf在70美元区间

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Honest在3美元区间

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美国运通在300美元区间

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Now在百元区间

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Cake在70美元区间

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欧莱雅在80美元区间

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Soi在十元区间

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Meta在500美元区间亚马逊

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200美元区间

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宝洁旗下品牌Bath and Body Works在20美元以下

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Salesforce在百元区间

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惠而浦在30美元区间

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PayPal在40美元区间

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这些股票来自不同行业，种类繁多

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但其实这是一个非常优质的投资组合

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你知道的

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这是成长型股票的绝佳组合

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价值型股票的优质搭配

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分红型股票

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可以说完全可以构建一个完整的投资组合

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我只是列出来，这简直太棒了

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现在来看

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其中一些可能会引发争议

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特别是像惠而浦这样的股票

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PayPal这类股票

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嗯

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这些股票可能更具争议性

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甚至像耐克和欧莱雅这样的股票

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也可能被视为存在一定争议

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但市场中任何股票都可能有争议

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所以我要如何对这些进行最佳排序

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比如Celsius在30或20美元区间

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我认为这是目前的最佳选择

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接下来我认为Elf在70区间是第二选择

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接下来是80区间作为第三选择

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Soi在十元区间是第四选择

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Meta和亚马逊非常容易买入

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现在就是买入时机

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没错

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不要对这些股票短期上涨抱太大希望

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但如果你是长期投资者

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此外，你知道这些股票在未来十二个月内应该会有巨大涨幅

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谁知道呢，这些股票未来十二个月可能下跌

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嗯

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在那些之后，我真的很看好耐克

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在四十多美元价位

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现在Netflix的投资价值极高

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在七十多美元价位

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我说这股票简直是礼物级交易

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目前的交易价格

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这有点令人震惊

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然后从那里开始，我真的很看好Salesforce

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我也非常看好服务类股票

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现在这些股票备受冷落

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当前的股票市场

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说实话

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我认为这只股票今年或五年内会有不错表现

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另外

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关键是它还能涨到三十几美元

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我认为这非常有吸引力

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这就是我的排序方式

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最后我会把惠而浦列进去

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PayPal

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这类股票属于十六只中最不具吸引力的

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但未来一到两年有显著上涨空间

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假设它们的业绩能好转

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惠而浦需要房地产市场复苏

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房地产市场已死

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现在市场正在回暖

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惠而浦将大幅上涨

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我说的是从三十多涨到六十多

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并在接下来的十二到二十四个月内翻倍

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你知道的十二到二十四个月

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但我说啊

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谁知道房地产市场会不会持续低迷

234
00:08:54,889 --> 00:08:55,309
爸爸

235
00:08:55,309 --> 00:08:57,210
如果房地产市场持续低迷

236
00:08:57,210 --> 00:08:59,470
惠而浦将陷入困境

237
00:08:59,470 --> 00:09:00,669
PayPal

238
00:09:00,669 --> 00:09:03,149
这只股票极其便宜

239
00:09:03,149 --> 00:09:04,690
绝对超值

240
00:09:04,690 --> 00:09:06,269
这大致涵盖了这些

241
00:09:06,269 --> 00:09:06,830
好的

242
00:09:06,830 --> 00:09:07,539
嗯

243
00:09:07,539 --> 00:09:08,299
接下来是

244
00:09:08,299 --> 00:09:10,639
我想让大家知道我们使用Styx Stocks

245
00:09:10,639 --> 00:09:11,019
Com

246
00:09:11,019 --> 00:09:14,070
我们已升级了搜索页面

247
00:09:14,070 --> 00:09:16,070
这就是当前的页面样式

248
00:09:16,070 --> 00:09:17,830
你可以在此运行图表

249
00:09:17,830 --> 00:09:19,720
这绝对美丽极了

250
00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:21,159
这里就是一站式服务

251
00:09:21,159 --> 00:09:22,779
我们这边有所有基础数据

252
00:09:22,779 --> 00:09:24,700
这边有估值指标

253
00:09:24,700 --> 00:09:27,200
市盈率及其他各类比率

254
00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:28,259
每股收益

255
00:09:28,259 --> 00:09:29,860
我们有营收预测

256
00:09:29,860 --> 00:09:32,159
我们也提供每股收益预测

257
00:09:32,159 --> 00:09:34,350
针对企业数据

258
00:09:34,350 --> 00:09:36,450
我们有股权结构分析

259
00:09:36,450 --> 00:09:39,490
展示公司前十大股东

260
00:09:39,490 --> 00:09:41,769
这里有近期内部交易记录

261
00:09:41,769 --> 00:09:44,250
还有历史每股收益

262
00:09:44,250 --> 00:09:45,609
业绩结果

263
00:09:45,609 --> 00:09:48,168
所以预测值、超预期与不及预期

264
00:09:48,168 --> 00:09:49,649
我们会持续优化此页面

265
00:09:49,649 --> 00:09:50,808
让它越来越好

266
00:09:50,808 --> 00:09:53,470
对当前进展非常满意

267
00:09:53,470 --> 00:09:57,889
然后传统搜索页面可直接对比

268
00:09:57,889 --> 00:09:59,288
因为功能有些重复

269
00:09:59,288 --> 00:10:01,649
搜索页面和对比页面

270
00:10:01,649 --> 00:10:04,350
它们基本功能相同只是操作不同

271
00:10:04,350 --> 00:10:06,470
只能查看单只股票

272
00:10:06,470 --> 00:10:07,909
可同时查看三只股票

273
00:10:07,909 --> 00:10:10,980
对整体进展非常满意

274
00:10:10,980 --> 00:10:14,440
我会不断迭代优化使其更好

275
00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:15,000
好的

276
00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:15,159
好的

277
00:10:15,159 --> 00:10:15,460
各位

278
00:10:15,460 --> 00:10:17,539
让我们回应一些内容

279
00:10:17,539 --> 00:10:20,039
斯特勒官员退款涉及资本及CDC计算机

280
00:10:20,039 --> 00:10:23,529
你对平均值并不太满意

281
00:10:23,529 --> 00:10:24,850
走势有所停滞

282
00:10:24,850 --> 00:10:27,490
你预期七月会更好

283
00:10:27,490 --> 00:10:29,330
随着估值更合理

284
00:10:29,330 --> 00:10:31,850
且市场情绪不过分高涨

285
00:10:31,850 --> 00:10:32,289
看涨

286
00:10:32,289 --> 00:10:33,669
这总结得很到位

287
00:10:33,669 --> 00:10:34,730
嗯是的

288
00:10:34,730 --> 00:10:38,110
七月我们将迎来二季度财报

289
00:10:38,110 --> 00:10:42,480
一季度财报远超预期

290
00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:48,019
目前市场市盈率比一月低一个点

291
00:10:48,019 --> 00:10:49,240
整整一圈

292
00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:52,809
预计二季度财报将超预期

293
00:10:52,809 --> 00:10:54,429
他刚才解释的内容

294
00:10:54,429 --> 00:10:55,250
非常重要

295
00:10:55,250 --> 00:10:56,610
我必须提及这一点

296
00:10:56,610 --> 00:10:59,610
因为想深入了解估值的人

297
00:10:59,610 --> 00:11:00,970
请听好

298
00:11:01,429 --> 00:11:05,330
当你分析股票时

299
00:11:05,330 --> 00:11:08,289
这只股票是否可能符合预期估值

300
00:11:08,289 --> 00:11:09,850
他们很可能超出预期

301
00:11:09,850 --> 00:11:14,210
因此其市销率很可能远低于当前水平

302
00:11:14,210 --> 00:11:17,210
他所指的正是整个市场

303
00:11:17,210 --> 00:11:20,000
整个市场普遍表现不佳

304
00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:21,700
他们的预期表现非常亮眼

305
00:11:21,700 --> 00:11:25,820
因此市场今日估值甚至比财报发布前更低

306
00:11:25,820 --> 00:11:29,389
当你看到一只股票且假设其交易在高位市盈率

307
00:11:29,389 --> 00:11:30,230
市盈率

308
00:11:30,230 --> 00:11:31,750
如果这是优质成长股

309
00:11:31,750 --> 00:11:34,539
应能消化这个高市盈率

310
00:11:34,539 --> 00:11:35,379
例如

311
00:11:35,379 --> 00:11:35,759
嗯

312
00:11:35,759 --> 00:11:37,639
我将展示一个优质股票的例子

313
00:11:37,639 --> 00:11:37,919
好的

314
00:11:37,919 --> 00:11:42,350
我们来看这个并分析

315
00:11:42,350 --> 00:11:43,429
Palantir

316
00:11:43,429 --> 00:11:43,950
好的

317
00:11:43,950 --> 00:11:47,599
Palantir曾有极高的前瞻市盈率

318
00:11:47,599 --> 00:11:52,399
比如一年前的前瞻市盈率当时高达

319
00:11:52,399 --> 00:11:54,120
我估计当时在两百左右

320
00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:55,860
看起来完全不合理

321
00:11:55,860 --> 00:11:57,759
现在看前瞻市盈率

322
00:11:57,759 --> 00:11:59,220
已降至88

323
00:11:59,220 --> 00:12:00,659
仍然非常高

324
00:12:00,659 --> 00:12:01,779
但相比公司增速已不算太高

325
00:12:01,779 --> 00:12:03,139
考虑到公司增长速度

326
00:12:03,139 --> 00:12:04,179
发生的情况是

327
00:12:04,179 --> 00:12:06,460
Palantir不断消化这个前瞻市盈率

328
00:12:06,460 --> 00:12:10,580
各项数据持续超出市场预期

329
00:12:10,580 --> 00:12:12,000
关于Palantir而言

330
00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:13,860
因此现在

331
00:12:13,860 --> 00:12:14,820
实际上

332
00:12:14,820 --> 00:12:16,320
随着股价下跌

333
00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:17,759
业绩优于

334
00:12:17,759 --> 00:12:22,659
市场预期实际上使股票更便宜

335
00:12:22,659 --> 00:12:25,120
他指的是整个市场

336
00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:25,659
不过再次强调

337
00:12:25,659 --> 00:12:28,009
市场将继续走低

338
00:12:28,009 --> 00:12:30,850
这意味着市盈率仍有扩张空间

339
00:12:30,850 --> 00:12:33,990
我认为七月将是股市强劲月份

340
00:12:33,990 --> 00:12:36,659
今年八千点目标可实现

341
00:12:36,659 --> 00:12:37,320
是的

342
00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:38,519
标普指数

343
00:12:38,519 --> 00:12:39,259
没错

344
00:12:39,259 --> 00:12:40,539
而这就是

345
00:12:40,539 --> 00:12:40,860
没错

346
00:12:40,860 --> 00:12:44,058
八千点相当于约20倍

347
00:12:44,058 --> 00:12:46,678
2027年每股收益400美元

348
00:12:46,678 --> 00:12:48,578
我认为这是低估

349
00:12:48,578 --> 00:12:49,379
我认为这个

350
00:12:49,379 --> 00:12:51,639
你知道市盈率可能在两倍左右

351
00:12:51,639 --> 00:12:52,340
两倍或更高

352
00:12:52,340 --> 00:12:53,419
因此这将是

353
00:12:53,419 --> 00:12:54,059
你知道的

354
00:12:54,059 --> 00:12:54,820
甚至八十四

355
00:12:54,820 --> 00:12:58,299
八十八百可能就是你的上限

356
00:12:58,299 --> 00:13:00,980
但我觉得从现在到年底

357
00:13:00,980 --> 00:13:02,159
应该会出现

358
00:13:04,340 --> 00:13:05,059
太

359
00:13:05,059 --> 00:13:06,080
不在七月

360
00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:09,200
但或许在八月到十月之间

361
00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:11,610
为什么不在七月

362
00:13:12,250 --> 00:13:14,370
我认为对于乔提到的那些事情

363
00:13:14,370 --> 00:13:17,409
你知道六月并不是好月份

364
00:13:17,409 --> 00:13:21,610
而且我认为今年有很多基金经理落后于基准

365
00:13:21,610 --> 00:13:25,120
你知道只有23%的经理跑赢大盘

366
00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:28,000
成长指数这是近五年最低

367
00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:30,139
所以我认为会有大幅回调

368
00:13:30,139 --> 00:13:30,779
但这个月

369
00:13:30,779 --> 00:13:31,360
这是什么

370
00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:32,100
你什么意思

371
00:13:32,100 --> 00:13:32,639
是的

372
00:13:32,639 --> 00:13:33,820
我认为他在强调

373
00:13:33,820 --> 00:13:35,179
这是一个棘手的情况

374
00:13:35,179 --> 00:13:36,730
这确实是个非常棘手的情况

375
00:13:36,730 --> 00:13:38,029
他实际上在论证

376
00:13:38,029 --> 00:13:40,149
 earnings将远超预期

377
00:13:40,149 --> 00:13:40,830
没错

378
00:13:40,830 --> 00:13:42,970
这些财报何时公布

379
00:13:42,970 --> 00:13:44,169
它们都会公布

380
00:13:44,169 --> 00:13:48,289
大量重要财报将在七月末公布

381
00:13:48,289 --> 00:13:49,870
八月初的几周

382
00:13:49,870 --> 00:13:52,460
没错那时会集中公布

383
00:13:52,460 --> 00:13:53,279
好的

384
00:13:53,279 --> 00:13:56,259
假设所有财报远超预期

385
00:13:56,259 --> 00:13:57,799
假设指引强劲

386
00:13:57,799 --> 00:13:59,940
良好的财报电话会议

387
00:13:59,940 --> 00:14:01,960
八月很难压低市场

388
00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:03,460
而他在预测

389
00:14:03,460 --> 00:14:06,789
或许在八月至十月的市场周期中

390
00:14:06,789 --> 00:14:09,710
你知道如果财报真的

391
00:14:09,710 --> 00:14:12,759
如果真的大幅超出预期

392
00:14:12,759 --> 00:14:13,519
良好的指引

393
00:14:13,519 --> 00:14:15,298
如何在八月压低市场

394
00:14:15,298 --> 00:14:16,979
现在很难做到

395
00:14:16,979 --> 00:14:17,658
说不可能

396
00:14:17,658 --> 00:14:19,110
但只会很困难

397
00:14:19,769 --> 00:14:21,769
如果财报弱于预期

398
00:14:21,769 --> 00:14:22,450
我们有一个案件

399
00:14:22,450 --> 00:14:23,470
你知道类似

400
00:14:23,470 --> 00:14:23,850
哦

401
00:14:23,850 --> 00:14:24,990
收益其实不多

402
00:14:24,990 --> 00:14:26,009
指引确实存在

403
00:14:26,009 --> 00:14:26,950
打压市场

404
00:14:26,950 --> 00:14:29,340
卖卖卖感觉像熊市

405
00:14:29,340 --> 00:14:30,440
它不会下跌

406
00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:32,279
它不会跌20%

407
00:14:32,279 --> 00:14:33,019
呃

408
00:14:33,019 --> 00:14:35,200
你知道平均是多少

409
00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:37,529
我们在谈纳斯达克还是标普

410
00:14:37,529 --> 00:14:42,129
我认为两者都是，今年二月到四月的下跌

411
00:14:42,129 --> 00:14:43,929
感觉像熊市

412
00:14:43,929 --> 00:14:46,250
而那只是7%

413
00:14:46,730 --> 00:14:47,429
嗯

414
00:14:47,429 --> 00:14:51,889
但我觉得今年晚些时候会有几件事考验市场

415
00:14:51,889 --> 00:14:58,529
你知道哪个让你感觉像熊市

416
00:14:58,529 --> 00:15:00,159
对我来说像熊市

417
00:15:00,159 --> 00:15:01,340
我喜欢

418
00:15:01,340 --> 00:15:04,100
那不是大幅下跌

419
00:15:04,100 --> 00:15:04,840
你知道的

420
00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:05,940
解放日当时是

421
00:15:05,940 --> 00:15:07,120
那确实发生了

422
00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:09,059
2022年非常残酷

423
00:15:10,299 --> 00:15:13,059
最近那次没感觉像熊市

424
00:15:13,059 --> 00:15:13,639
那确实是

425
00:15:13,639 --> 00:15:14,340
你知道的

426
00:15:14,340 --> 00:15:17,679
也许因为汤姆·李也涉足加密货币

427
00:15:17,679 --> 00:15:18,799
以太坊

428
00:15:18,799 --> 00:15:21,779
他还做比特币分析

429
00:15:21,779 --> 00:15:24,559
也许这就是他这么认为的原因

430
00:15:24,559 --> 00:15:26,919
但我不这么觉得

431
00:15:26,919 --> 00:15:27,759
那太简单了

432
00:15:27,759 --> 00:15:28,039
轻松搞定

433
00:15:28,039 --> 00:15:29,360
挤柠檬般度过那市场

434
00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:31,429
将考验新美联储

435
00:15:31,429 --> 00:15:34,629
因为他有新框架和通胀新视角

436
00:15:34,629 --> 00:15:39,759
我们知道将逐步解锁SpaceX股份

437
00:15:39,759 --> 00:15:41,279
这是下行压力

438
00:15:41,279 --> 00:15:44,759
我认为

439
00:15:44,759 --> 00:15:47,360
将出现石油产品累积短缺

440
00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:48,360
这也是下行压力

441
00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:49,980
我认为杠杆率偏高

442
00:15:49,980 --> 00:15:54,539
我认为有四项可能引发熊市的因素

443
00:15:55,779 --> 00:15:56,220
是的

444
00:15:56,220 --> 00:15:57,769
有趣的观点啊

445
00:15:57,769 --> 00:15:58,208
你知道的

446
00:15:58,208 --> 00:15:58,708
我是说

447
00:15:58,708 --> 00:16:00,708
如果他在那里谈论

448
00:16:00,708 --> 00:16:01,328
因为你知道

449
00:16:01,328 --> 00:16:03,769
乔问他大概二十个百分点的下跌

450
00:16:03,769 --> 00:16:05,500
我们在纳斯达克讨论什么呢

451
00:16:05,500 --> 00:16:06,000
他说

452
00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:08,000
P和纳斯达克都是对的

453
00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:09,029
这是个大胆的预测

454
00:16:09,029 --> 00:16:10,090
大胆的预测

455
00:16:10,090 --> 00:16:10,769
嗯

456
00:16:10,769 --> 00:16:11,919
我是说

457
00:16:11,919 --> 00:16:13,919
如果你是市场的稳定买家

458
00:16:13,919 --> 00:16:14,799
就像我一样

459
00:16:14,799 --> 00:16:15,779
每周都在买入

460
00:16:15,779 --> 00:16:17,480
或者每月几次

461
00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:18,600
你知道的

462
00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:20,120
你几乎盼着这种情况发生

463
00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:21,179
我说的是熊市

464
00:16:21,179 --> 00:16:22,039
天啊

465
00:16:22,039 --> 00:16:26,029
你知道历史上每个熊市的特点是什么

466
00:16:26,029 --> 00:16:27,799
我们清楚一点

467
00:16:27,799 --> 00:16:30,620
这是绝佳的买入机会

468
00:16:30,620 --> 00:16:31,139
你知道的

469
00:16:31,139 --> 00:16:34,210
所以如果出现这种情况

470
00:16:34,210 --> 00:16:35,190
但我有疑虑

471
00:16:35,190 --> 00:16:37,720
但如果今年真的发生

472
00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:38,860
要抓住机会

473
00:16:38,860 --> 00:16:40,039
充分利用机会

474
00:16:40,039 --> 00:16:42,960
因为这样的机会难得且稀少

475
00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:44,419
我对他这个判断感到意外

476
00:16:44,419 --> 00:16:46,139
因为我们去年经历了熊市

477
00:16:46,139 --> 00:16:49,419
年初就因解放日事件

478
00:16:49,419 --> 00:16:51,739
是啊

479
00:16:51,739 --> 00:16:52,538
我非常意外

480
00:16:52,538 --> 00:16:53,198
非常意外

481
00:16:53,198 --> 00:16:54,099
他竟会做出这个判断

482
00:16:54,099 --> 00:16:54,479
好吧

483
00:16:54,479 --> 00:16:55,519
或者接下来这个

484
00:16:55,519 --> 00:16:57,029
早上好

485
00:16:57,029 --> 00:16:58,269
我们先从这个开始

486
00:16:58,269 --> 00:17:00,289
我认为更容易的判断

487
00:17:00,289 --> 00:17:04,509
如果你想讨论看空市场

488
00:17:04,509 --> 00:17:05,750
更容易的判断

489
00:17:05,750 --> 00:17:10,509
在我看来应该是明年是熊市

490
00:17:10,509 --> 00:17:13,930
因为可能已经经历了SpaceX、Anthropic

491
00:17:13,930 --> 00:17:15,809
OpenAI上市

492
00:17:15,809 --> 00:17:17,730
假设这些股票疲软

493
00:17:17,730 --> 00:17:19,130
拖累市场下跌

494
00:17:19,130 --> 00:17:22,329
假设所有半导体股票今年见顶

495
00:17:22,329 --> 00:17:24,190
明年第一季度

496
00:17:24,190 --> 00:17:28,160
然后市场开始寻求指引

497
00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,039
人们并不急于入场

498
00:17:30,039 --> 00:17:32,359
于是市场就开始陷入混乱

499
00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:33,759
然后开始一路下跌

500
00:17:33,759 --> 00:17:38,230
我觉得今年做空市的判断比熊市更容易

501
00:17:38,230 --> 00:17:39,430
这要容易得多

502
00:17:39,430 --> 00:17:41,269
比如明年可能出现熊市

503
00:17:41,269 --> 00:17:41,869
或者类似的情况

504
00:17:43,829 --> 00:17:45,529
整个市场可能会剧烈波动

505
00:17:45,529 --> 00:17:48,210
所以你明白我的意思吧

506
00:17:48,210 --> 00:17:50,829
假设今年根本不会出现熊市

507
00:17:50,829 --> 00:17:54,069
假设市场一路走高到第四季度

508
00:17:54,069 --> 00:17:57,029
那我接下来会怎么做

509
00:17:58,819 --> 00:17:59,940
明年的话

510
00:17:59,940 --> 00:18:01,059
我们来谈谈这个

511
00:18:01,059 --> 00:18:01,480
好的

512
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:03,308
我接下来会

513
00:18:03,308 --> 00:18:05,368
在市场中建立对冲策略

514
00:18:05,368 --> 00:18:09,148
比如半导体股如果恢复上涨势头

515
00:18:09,148 --> 00:18:10,328
它们会大幅上涨

516
00:18:10,328 --> 00:18:13,230
尤其是在第四季度

517
00:18:13,390 --> 00:18:18,390
我可以实际对半导体股进行对冲

518
00:18:18,390 --> 00:18:20,549
但时机可能还早

519
00:18:20,549 --> 00:18:22,309
不过我可能会这么做

520
00:18:22,309 --> 00:18:24,429
同时也可以建立其他对冲

521
00:18:24,429 --> 00:18:25,209
嗯

522
00:18:25,209 --> 00:18:28,128
比如SQ Q Q这类标的

523
00:18:28,128 --> 00:18:29,429
可以买入看涨期权

524
00:18:29,429 --> 00:18:32,859
这是一个纳斯达克反向ETF三倍产品

525
00:18:32,859 --> 00:18:33,900
我可以买入该标的看涨期权

526
00:18:33,900 --> 00:18:35,680
如果我想的话

527
00:18:36,079 --> 00:18:37,599
其实有很多选择

528
00:18:37,599 --> 00:18:38,279
我不太确定

529
00:18:38,279 --> 00:18:38,960
我们到时候再看

530
00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:40,960
但我会对冲我的投资组合

531
00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:41,859
如果市场持续走强

532
00:18:41,859 --> 00:18:43,359
但他在谈论熊市

533
00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:45,119
并强调这为后续阶段的重要性

534
00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:47,240
为接下来几个月的预期奠定基础

535
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:47,460
是的

536
00:18:47,460 --> 00:18:48,559
我感觉之前就有所迹象

537
00:18:48,559 --> 00:18:49,660
我在听节目时注意到

538
00:18:49,660 --> 00:18:51,339
有人预期加息

539
00:18:51,339 --> 00:18:53,449
有人预期降息而我们暂停

540
00:18:56,900 --> 00:18:58,640
可能不会提供太多指引

541
00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:01,500
让市场自行消化信息

542
00:19:01,500 --> 00:19:03,480
并存在不同观点

543
00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:05,339
我们现在处于调整期

544
00:19:05,339 --> 00:19:06,880
这也是原因之一

545
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:09,799
过去一个月市场波动加剧甚至回调

546
00:19:09,799 --> 00:19:12,380
或者这就是我们逐渐适应的新常态

547
00:19:12,380 --> 00:19:15,619
这将带来更高的波动性，可能影响债券市场

548
00:19:15,619 --> 00:19:18,039
但长期来看我认为最终会发生

549
00:19:18,039 --> 00:19:19,400
市场将会趋于稳定

550
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:19,819
它将会

551
00:19:19,819 --> 00:19:22,579
实际上更多是更广泛的估计范围

552
00:19:22,579 --> 00:19:26,569
估计值的分散实际上会降低长期定价波动

553
00:19:26,569 --> 00:19:27,970
但我们正处于调整期

554
00:19:27,970 --> 00:19:29,309
因此我们认为利率更低

555
00:19:29,309 --> 00:19:30,069
最终

556
00:19:30,069 --> 00:19:31,369
特别是在长期端

557
00:19:31,369 --> 00:19:31,650
哦

558
00:19:31,650 --> 00:19:31,970
顺便说一句

559
00:19:31,970 --> 00:19:33,309
我们曾在节目中讨论过

560
00:19:33,309 --> 00:19:34,239
多次

561
00:19:34,239 --> 00:19:35,578
新财长

562
00:19:35,578 --> 00:19:36,199
你知道的

563
00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:43,680
这是他们关注的重点

564
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:44,980
必须压低长期端

565
00:19:44,980 --> 00:19:46,200
至少要锚定

566
00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:49,039
因为需要融资的债务规模巨大

567
00:19:49,039 --> 00:19:51,880
我们是否在暂时的指引下调低

568
00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:53,160
与鹰派政策收紧混淆

569
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:54,140
只是暂时

570
00:19:54,140 --> 00:19:54,380
是的

571
00:19:54,380 --> 00:19:55,000
我认为这是正确的

572
00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:57,019
市场现在正在定价这一点

573
00:19:57,019 --> 00:19:58,180
所以这是好消息

574
00:19:58,180 --> 00:20:00,170
我们已经完成了调整

575
00:20:00,170 --> 00:20:02,349
而调整始于四个月前

576
00:20:02,349 --> 00:20:02,609
没错

577
00:20:02,609 --> 00:20:05,349
这就是贵金属为何表现疲软

578
00:20:05,349 --> 00:20:05,670
你知道的

579
00:20:05,670 --> 00:20:08,730
当沃什被提名为候选人那天

580
00:20:08,730 --> 00:20:10,199
金价达到峰值

581
00:20:10,199 --> 00:20:11,419
这已被市场消化

582
00:20:11,419 --> 00:20:12,638
美元走强

583
00:20:12,638 --> 00:20:15,200
市场再次超前反应

584
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:16,240
利率重置

585
00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:17,559
我们从约4.2%降至4.1%

586
00:20:17,559 --> 00:20:18,920
存在从4.2%到4.1%

587
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:19,980
今早的市场预期

588
00:20:19,980 --> 00:20:23,059
至少已消除7月加息的紧迫性

589
00:20:23,059 --> 00:20:24,480
我们可以结束这个故事

590
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:25,240
团队拒绝

591
00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:28,730
原油从三倍跌幅跌至60美元区间

592
00:20:28,730 --> 00:20:29,430
W的价格

593
00:20:29,430 --> 00:20:31,349
这是否在股市打开大门

594
00:20:31,349 --> 00:20:33,250
我们来专门谈谈股市

595
00:20:33,250 --> 00:20:35,689
这是否打开了新一轮交易扩大的大门

596
00:20:35,689 --> 00:20:36,148
是的

597
00:20:36,148 --> 00:20:36,929
这就是我们的判断

598
00:20:36,929 --> 00:20:39,730
基本上这是年初就开始发生的事情

599
00:20:39,730 --> 00:20:40,890
然后是委内瑞拉

600
00:20:40,890 --> 00:20:41,789
接着是伊朗

601
00:20:41,789 --> 00:20:44,000
顺便说一下，市场已经定价了伊朗局势

602
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:45,960
甚至在入侵发生前

603
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:47,079
或袭击发生前

604
00:20:47,079 --> 00:20:47,539
因为

605
00:20:47,539 --> 00:20:49,849
因为这再次被明显预示了

606
00:20:49,849 --> 00:20:53,089
因此扩大的交易停止了

607
00:20:53,089 --> 00:20:56,440
扩大的交易在袭击当天彻底停止

608
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:57,859
我们经历了油价大幅飙升

609
00:20:57,859 --> 00:21:00,420
随后是美联储加息的定价

610
00:21:00,420 --> 00:21:02,710
从我五月中期开始

611
00:21:02,710 --> 00:21:04,509
也就是我们重申看涨观点的时候

612
00:21:04,509 --> 00:21:05,630
我们对市场持有不同看法

613
00:21:05,630 --> 00:21:07,170
我们认为油价将下跌

614
00:21:07,170 --> 00:21:10,329
这使美联储定价逐渐稳定

615
00:21:10,329 --> 00:21:13,329
这也让扩大的交易得以重启

616
00:21:13,329 --> 00:21:14,690
小盘股表现优异

617
00:21:14,690 --> 00:21:15,690
刚刚交出亮眼季度成绩

618
00:21:15,690 --> 00:21:18,049
标普小盘股指数上涨超20%

619
00:21:18,049 --> 00:21:20,490
扩大的交易正在反映市场表现

620
00:21:20,490 --> 00:21:21,910
标普500等权指数也同步走强

621
00:21:21,910 --> 00:21:22,829
同样表现突出

622
00:21:22,829 --> 00:21:24,220
我们来谈谈最大七日线

623
00:21:24,220 --> 00:21:26,220
现在被称为滞后七日线

624
00:21:26,220 --> 00:21:28,819
我们早上刚发布了一份分析报告

625
00:21:28,819 --> 00:21:31,099
我认为非常重要的一点

626
00:21:31,099 --> 00:21:34,719
尤其关于大宗商品方面

627
00:21:34,719 --> 00:21:39,159
今年以来油价走势的变化

628
00:21:39,159 --> 00:21:44,180
对了，不要过于纠结商品预测

629
00:21:44,180 --> 00:21:47,740
因为很多华尔街分析师都这样操作

630
00:21:47,740 --> 00:21:48,000
他们试图做出这些判断

631
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,829
认为价格将飙升并持续高位

632
00:21:50,829 --> 00:21:55,730
结果夏季油价暴涨预期落空

633
00:21:55,730 --> 00:21:57,549
这正是主流观点

634
00:21:57,549 --> 00:22:00,609
普遍认为油价将大幅上涨

635
00:22:00,609 --> 00:22:03,289
大家谈论的疯狂油价

636
00:22:03,289 --> 00:22:06,359
我们预计夏季油价将突破百美元

637
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,299
甚至可能达到120美元

638
00:22:08,299 --> 00:22:10,259
甚至有人喊出200美元

639
00:22:10,259 --> 00:22:13,299
几个月前就在预测油价走势

640
00:22:13,299 --> 00:22:14,740
现在WTI原油价格如何

641
00:22:14,740 --> 00:22:16,960
可能在60到70美元区间

642
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,079
所以啊

643
00:22:19,079 --> 00:22:21,579
不要沉迷于商品市场预测

644
00:22:21,579 --> 00:22:22,119
然后就像

645
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:22,240
啊

646
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:22,980
我要玩石油

647
00:22:22,980 --> 00:22:23,500
石油和天然气

648
00:22:23,500 --> 00:22:24,779
斯托尔的股价要涨更高了

649
00:22:24,779 --> 00:22:26,660
因为 blah blah blah 不不不

650
00:22:26,660 --> 00:22:27,779
别别别动那个

651
00:22:27,779 --> 00:22:28,480
说到

652
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:30,819
或许资金正在回流到超大规模企业

653
00:22:30,819 --> 00:22:31,460
带我们梳理一下

654
00:22:31,460 --> 00:22:33,099
你如何看待科技领域的发展

655
00:22:33,099 --> 00:22:37,490
以及大手笔支出企业与受益方之间的分化

656
00:22:37,490 --> 00:22:41,119
这种分化在最近几个月显著扩大

657
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:41,440
是的

658
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:41,640
我说

659
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:45,180
支出方与受益方存在共生关系

660
00:22:45,180 --> 00:22:47,799
通常它们走势同步

661
00:22:47,799 --> 00:22:51,299
我们过去几个月一直在探讨的几点

662
00:22:51,299 --> 00:22:53,650
首先是资本支出与营收比率

663
00:22:53,650 --> 00:22:57,930
这一指标自大额法案通过后持续走高

664
00:22:57,930 --> 00:23:00,519
这基本是政府的激励政策

665
00:23:00,519 --> 00:23:03,349
促使企业今朝消费而非延迟

666
00:23:03,349 --> 00:23:07,369
因此资本支出比率推动了许多股票上涨

667
00:23:07,369 --> 00:23:09,079
这似乎已见顶

668
00:23:09,079 --> 00:23:09,799
顺便说

669
00:23:09,799 --> 00:23:13,700
超大规模企业股票约一个月前开始走弱

670
00:23:13,700 --> 00:23:15,500
围绕这一观点

671
00:23:15,500 --> 00:23:17,460
但这不可持续

672
00:23:17,460 --> 00:23:20,279
支出方股票下跌不可行

673
00:23:20,279 --> 00:23:23,150
受益方股票却持续上涨

674
00:23:23,150 --> 00:23:24,589
上周我们看到

675
00:23:24,589 --> 00:23:24,829
你知道的

676
00:23:24,829 --> 00:23:27,670
Meta宣布可能出售多余产能

677
00:23:27,670 --> 00:23:30,779
或许转型为产能供应商

678
00:23:30,779 --> 00:23:33,759
这正是这些板块需要调整的原因

679
00:23:33,759 --> 00:23:34,680
同时利率见顶

680
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,200
修正幅度变化

681
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:37,160
内存股

682
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:38,779
修正数据表现惊人

683
00:23:38,779 --> 00:23:41,000
但涨幅终有极限

684
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,289
所有这些同时发生

685
00:23:43,289 --> 00:23:45,690
我预计超大规模企业将企稳

686
00:23:45,690 --> 00:23:47,109
这就是最近几周的情况

687
00:23:47,109 --> 00:23:49,500
半导体股将面临回调

688
00:23:49,500 --> 00:23:50,180
这很好

689
00:23:50,180 --> 00:23:50,980
这是积极进展

690
00:23:50,980 --> 00:23:53,619
但这不意味资本支出周期结束

691
00:23:53,619 --> 00:23:58,299
两者间的此消彼长是自然调节因素

692
00:23:58,299 --> 00:24:00,720
因为这种分化不可持续

693
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:01,059
继续

694
00:24:01,059 --> 00:24:01,859
这很不稳定

695
00:24:01,859 --> 00:24:03,299
你的言语需要暂停

696
00:24:03,299 --> 00:24:04,099
这很有趣

697
00:24:04,099 --> 00:24:06,750
有人称这是整体贸易的叙事转变

698
00:24:06,750 --> 00:24:08,349
或许是在支出上发生了转变

699
00:24:08,349 --> 00:24:09,670
为什么是这方而不是另一方呢

700
00:24:09,670 --> 00:24:10,569
我们还不确定

701
00:24:10,569 --> 00:24:12,470
但约翰我们已经经历了三次

702
00:24:12,470 --> 00:24:15,670
自去年11月Chat GT宣布以来

703
00:24:15,670 --> 00:24:19,990
我们已出现三次这样的小周期

704
00:24:19,990 --> 00:24:22,118
市场开始质疑

705
00:24:22,118 --> 00:24:22,439
哦

706
00:24:22,439 --> 00:24:25,789
资本回报率不足以支撑此类资本支出

707
00:24:25,789 --> 00:24:26,450
接下来会发生什么

708
00:24:26,450 --> 00:24:27,910
股价表现不佳

709
00:24:27,910 --> 00:24:30,529
然后这些公司的CEO会出来表示

710
00:24:30,529 --> 00:24:30,930
你知道的

711
00:24:30,930 --> 00:24:32,710
或许不会那么激进地支出

712
00:24:32,710 --> 00:24:34,130
然后趋势反转

713
00:24:34,130 --> 00:24:35,549
这就是这个故事

714
00:24:35,549 --> 00:24:37,409
这就是此消彼长的循环

715
00:24:37,409 --> 00:24:39,048
接下来将有一段时期

716
00:24:39,048 --> 00:24:39,949
将有一段时光

717
00:24:39,949 --> 00:24:41,229
我们不知道何时会发生

718
00:24:41,229 --> 00:24:44,469
资本周期将自行耗尽

719
00:24:44,469 --> 00:24:45,480
我们将迎来

720
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:45,920
你知道的

721
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:46,680
我们之前讨论过

722
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:48,799
这里可能存在误投资

723
00:24:48,799 --> 00:24:51,660
我们认为这一支出周期尚未结束

724
00:24:51,660 --> 00:24:54,200
因为他们刚在信贷市场增发资本

725
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:55,660
他们将动用这笔资本

726
00:24:55,660 --> 00:24:56,429
好的

727
00:24:56,429 --> 00:25:01,148
但我们可以在这结构性牛市中看到这些小周期

728
00:25:01,148 --> 00:25:01,429
我认为

729
00:25:01,429 --> 00:25:01,868
正如你所知

730
00:25:01,868 --> 00:25:03,420
但问题在于

731
00:25:03,420 --> 00:25:06,140
这也是为何可能出现

732
00:25:06,140 --> 00:25:06,880
你知道的

733
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:09,299
二十八号数据可能

734
00:25:09,980 --> 00:25:10,559
呃

735
00:25:10,559 --> 00:25:11,539
趋于平缓

736
00:25:11,539 --> 00:25:12,680
在资本支出方面

737
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,519
这些公司并未大幅融资

738
00:25:15,519 --> 00:25:16,819
从大局来看

739
00:25:16,819 --> 00:25:17,220
你知道的

740
00:25:17,220 --> 00:25:17,849
你看

741
00:25:17,849 --> 00:25:19,549
它们都在筹集

742
00:25:19,549 --> 00:25:21,569
看起来约二十到三十亿

743
00:25:21,569 --> 00:25:23,349
大致来自这些债券发行

744
00:25:23,349 --> 00:25:24,569
没事的

745
00:25:24,569 --> 00:25:25,349
没事的

746
00:25:25,349 --> 00:25:25,890
你知道的

747
00:25:25,890 --> 00:25:29,369
Meta可能会在cap x上投入1400多亿美元

748
00:25:29,369 --> 00:25:29,950
这是两亿吗

749
00:25:29,950 --> 00:25:30,829
这是200亿美元吗

750
00:25:30,829 --> 00:25:31,369
这是两亿吗

751
00:25:31,369 --> 00:25:31,829
五亿美元

752
00:25:31,829 --> 00:25:32,679
这根本不算什么

753
00:25:32,679 --> 00:25:33,259
你知道的

754
00:25:33,259 --> 00:25:36,398
亚马逊今年可能要投入2000亿美元

755
00:25:36,398 --> 00:25:36,999
所以他们确实会

756
00:25:36,999 --> 00:25:37,838
而且他们确实会

757
00:25:37,838 --> 00:25:38,159
你知道的

758
00:25:38,159 --> 00:25:40,079
250亿美元债券发行

759
00:25:40,079 --> 00:25:40,759
你知道的

760
00:25:40,759 --> 00:25:41,079
好的

761
00:25:41,079 --> 00:25:41,619
这是什么

762
00:25:41,619 --> 00:25:42,099
你知道的

763
00:25:42,099 --> 00:25:44,160
你总支出的15%

764
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:45,240
或者12.5%

765
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:45,480
或者随便什么

766
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:46,160
这个数字大概是

767
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:46,859
这非常低

768
00:25:46,859 --> 00:25:47,740
没事的

769
00:25:47,740 --> 00:25:48,640
没什么

770
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,799
所以故事的寓意是

771
00:25:51,799 --> 00:25:53,279
这些人就像

772
00:25:53,279 --> 00:25:54,160
你知道的

773
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:55,799
全力投入支出

774
00:25:55,799 --> 00:25:57,579
他们真的在全力投入支出

775
00:25:57,579 --> 00:26:05,319
因此未来无法将资本开支提升到极高水平

776
00:26:05,740 --> 00:26:08,660
除非营收增长能加速

777
00:26:08,660 --> 00:26:11,259
达到如此夸张的程度才能持续

778
00:26:11,259 --> 00:26:15,539
比如Meta营收增长可持续保持35%以上

779
00:26:15,539 --> 00:26:16,119
好的

780
00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:20,240
可以认为他们2027年可能再大幅增长

781
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:22,539
或许2028年还能有一次大增长

782
00:26:22,539 --> 00:26:26,750
但数字变得过于夸张难以实现

783
00:26:27,190 --> 00:26:27,849
亚马逊

784
00:26:27,849 --> 00:26:31,670
如果亚马逊今年要投入2000亿美元

785
00:26:31,670 --> 00:26:33,380
像谷歌和微软这样的公司

786
00:26:33,380 --> 00:26:35,380
明年他们会投入3000亿吗

787
00:26:35,380 --> 00:26:36,660
4000亿左右

788
00:26:36,660 --> 00:26:38,059
这些数字太离谱了

789
00:26:38,059 --> 00:26:38,839
你知道的

790
00:26:38,839 --> 00:26:40,519
已经榨干了所有利润

791
00:26:40,519 --> 00:26:42,079
甚至更多

792
00:26:42,279 --> 00:26:44,859
因此必须增加资产负债表债务

793
00:26:44,859 --> 00:26:46,789
或者必须消耗现金

794
00:26:46,789 --> 00:26:49,029
你不得不稀释股东价值

795
00:26:49,029 --> 00:26:50,309
就像它很丑陋

796
00:26:50,309 --> 00:26:51,069
这很丑陋

797
00:26:51,069 --> 00:26:52,430
所以嗯

798
00:26:52,430 --> 00:26:52,990
是的

799
00:26:52,990 --> 00:26:53,269
有

800
00:26:53,269 --> 00:26:53,809
你知道的

801
00:26:53,809 --> 00:26:55,829
一切都会迎来高潮

802
00:26:56,970 --> 00:26:57,950
你知道如果它它

803
00:26:57,950 --> 00:26:58,390
它不会

804
00:26:58,390 --> 00:27:00,118
二十七是二八

805
00:27:00,118 --> 00:27:01,298
几乎可以确定

806
00:27:01,298 --> 00:27:02,199
这纯粹是数学问题

807
00:27:02,199 --> 00:27:04,159
别提还没发生的开支

808
00:27:04,159 --> 00:27:05,640
意图才是关键

809
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,559
从现在起资本支出计划的放缓意图

810
00:27:08,559 --> 00:27:10,979
这也是为什么我想退出AMD

811
00:27:10,979 --> 00:27:11,858
比如在接下来

812
00:27:11,858 --> 00:27:13,778
你知道从大部分持股中

813
00:27:13,778 --> 00:27:16,339
我想在六到十二个月内退出

814
00:27:16,339 --> 00:27:18,319
因为我相信你知道

815
00:27:18,319 --> 00:27:22,380
二八几乎持平是大概率

816
00:27:22,380 --> 00:27:23,859
这些公司的资本支出

817
00:27:23,859 --> 00:27:25,210
嗯

818
00:27:25,730 --> 00:27:28,349
或最佳情况小幅上涨

819
00:27:28,349 --> 00:27:30,930
而二八年可能下跌

820
00:27:30,930 --> 00:27:33,509
这就是为什么我想直接

821
00:27:33,509 --> 00:27:34,529
你知道现金

822
00:27:34,529 --> 00:27:37,730
在未来六到九个月内减持大部分AMD股份

823
00:27:37,730 --> 00:27:39,910
你认为市场会如何消化

824
00:27:39,910 --> 00:27:41,950
未来几个月的这种前景

825
00:27:41,950 --> 00:27:42,190
嗯

826
00:27:42,190 --> 00:27:42,990
现在正在发生

827
00:27:42,990 --> 00:27:45,230
好消息是AMD已抢占市场份额

828
00:27:45,230 --> 00:27:46,759
这是我们需要注意的

829
00:27:46,759 --> 00:27:48,640
未来几年将抢占更多市场份额

830
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,779
我们称之为峰值变化率

831
00:27:50,779 --> 00:27:51,680
或者你知道的

832
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:52,599
谷底变化率

833
00:27:52,599 --> 00:27:54,000
二阶导数增长

834
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:55,440
这正是当前情况

835
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:57,179
我们重点关注两件事

836
00:27:57,179 --> 00:28:01,699
半导体板块自身盈利修正比例达75%

837
00:28:01,699 --> 00:28:02,959
这已是最高水平

838
00:28:02,959 --> 00:28:04,999
我们已记录这一数据即将反转

839
00:28:04,999 --> 00:28:06,619
并不意味着转负

840
00:28:06,619 --> 00:28:09,809
但增速放缓会导致这些股票回调

841
00:28:09,809 --> 00:28:12,069
当然超大规模企业将受益

842
00:28:12,069 --> 00:28:15,750
若市场认为这些公司资本支出谨慎

843
00:28:15,750 --> 00:28:19,719
不会随意挥霍导致自由现金流

844
00:28:19,719 --> 00:28:21,349
你知道这会趋近于零或负数

845
00:28:21,349 --> 00:28:22,150
顺便说一句

846
00:28:22,150 --> 00:28:25,299
这些公司的自由现金流预期正接近零

847
00:28:25,299 --> 00:28:26,660
这就是它们表现不佳的原因

848
00:28:26,660 --> 00:28:29,000
所以就像我说的，这是来回震荡

849
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,339
而在过去一周半时间里，超大规模企业

850
00:28:31,339 --> 00:28:33,670
或部分超大规模股票开始表现改善

851
00:28:33,670 --> 00:28:36,150
这是即将出现小幅回调的积极信号

852
00:28:36,150 --> 00:28:36,869
这可能会持续

853
00:28:36,869 --> 00:28:38,289
你知道大概是四到八周

854
00:28:38,289 --> 00:28:39,059
左右时间

855
00:28:39,059 --> 00:28:41,140
然后我们可能迎来第二轮上行周期

856
00:28:41,140 --> 00:28:42,859
这些是熊市马库斯名单中的公司

857
00:28:42,859 --> 00:28:44,480
我说的正是梅塔和微软

858
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,230
梅塔上周表现更好

859
00:28:46,230 --> 00:28:47,630
芯片你还在用这个词

860
00:28:47,630 --> 00:28:48,029
正确

861
00:28:48,029 --> 00:28:48,690
当我听到这个词时

862
00:28:48,690 --> 00:28:49,150
我只是在思考

863
00:28:49,150 --> 00:28:50,170
你这话是什么意思

864
00:28:50,170 --> 00:28:51,569
下行空间有多大

865
00:28:51,569 --> 00:28:52,529
下行空间有多大

866
00:28:52,529 --> 00:28:53,490
对于这些芯片股而言

867
00:28:53,490 --> 00:28:53,569
嗯

868
00:28:53,569 --> 00:28:54,519
这些是高波动性股票

869
00:28:54,519 --> 00:28:57,279
我意思是牛市中也可能暴跌30-40%

870
00:28:57,279 --> 00:28:59,099
但顺便看看200日移动均线

871
00:28:59,099 --> 00:28:59,420
这

872
00:28:59,420 --> 00:29:01,099
这可能是很好的参考指标

873
00:29:01,099 --> 00:29:05,589
这些股票相对于均线已严重超涨

874
00:29:05,589 --> 00:29:07,029
这就是需要考虑的角度

875
00:29:07,029 --> 00:29:08,829
这些均线存在自有道理

876
00:29:08,829 --> 00:29:09,309
没错

877
00:29:09,309 --> 00:29:11,500
它们总会回归均线

878
00:29:11,500 --> 00:29:13,140
这会剧烈发生吗

879
00:29:13,140 --> 00:29:14,900
还是逐渐回归

880
00:29:14,900 --> 00:29:15,880
我们只能观察

881
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:16,500
但确实

882
00:29:16,500 --> 00:29:20,569
这些股票30%回调完全可能

883
00:29:20,569 --> 00:29:22,289
事实上部分股票已回调

884
00:29:22,289 --> 00:29:24,450
芯片股可能出现30%回调

885
00:29:24,450 --> 00:29:25,849
请耐心听我说

886
00:29:25,849 --> 00:29:28,479
但仍能看到指数上涨

887
00:29:28,479 --> 00:29:30,578
在标普500指数上向右移动

888
00:29:30,578 --> 00:29:32,259
即使权重巨大

889
00:29:32,259 --> 00:29:33,440
但我们没有标普

890
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:34,799
这就是但

891
00:29:34,799 --> 00:29:35,200
但我说

892
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:36,099
这也是我们的观点

893
00:29:36,099 --> 00:29:40,339
我们认为这种轮动正在下跌行情中发生

894
00:29:40,339 --> 00:29:41,039
好的

895
00:29:41,039 --> 00:29:45,099
与一月份贵金属股出现的回调不同

896
00:29:45,099 --> 00:29:47,880
因为它们在指数中占比很小

897
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:49,719
能源股经历了大幅回调

898
00:29:49,719 --> 00:29:52,278
在1月和2月强劲上涨后

899
00:29:52,278 --> 00:29:54,679
如今市场因战争本身小幅回落

900
00:29:54,679 --> 00:29:56,038
但我要说

901
00:29:56,038 --> 00:29:57,159
我同意你的观点

902
00:29:57,159 --> 00:29:57,878
或者你的前提

903
00:29:57,878 --> 00:29:58,479
或者你的问题

904
00:29:58,479 --> 00:30:01,670
因为这些股票在指数中占比很大

905
00:30:01,670 --> 00:30:05,029
指数要实现上涨将非常困难

906
00:30:05,029 --> 00:30:07,349
直到这种轮动发生

907
00:30:07,349 --> 00:30:08,930
这正是你的夏季故事

908
00:30:08,930 --> 00:30:09,430
哦是的

909
00:30:09,430 --> 00:30:10,029
我并不认为

910
00:30:10,029 --> 00:30:10,390
我是说

911
00:30:10,390 --> 00:30:11,789
我们对年末并不看空

912
00:30:11,789 --> 00:30:13,430
我们仍处于八千点

913
00:30:13,430 --> 00:30:14,569
年末有望上涨

914
00:30:14,569 --> 00:30:16,730
我们早已发出这一预测

915
00:30:16,730 --> 00:30:17,849
基于业绩增长故事

916
00:30:17,849 --> 00:30:19,549
因此业绩故事依然稳固

917
00:30:19,549 --> 00:30:20,309
事实上

918
00:30:20,309 --> 00:30:23,029
我们现在转向其他领域的轮动

919
00:30:23,029 --> 00:30:25,779
几乎验证了我们全年的论点

920
00:30:25,779 --> 00:30:28,299
这并非单纯题材故事

921
00:30:28,299 --> 00:30:29,589
这是一个很棒的故事

922
00:30:29,589 --> 00:30:33,950
但更广泛的叙事才是被低估的

923
00:30:33,950 --> 00:30:35,849
去年开始的温和衰退

924
00:30:35,849 --> 00:30:37,170
这种运营杠杆故事

925
00:30:37,170 --> 00:30:39,470
我认为仍被严重低估

926
00:30:39,470 --> 00:30:41,630
你认为银行能否开始表现良好

927
00:30:41,630 --> 00:30:42,069
他们确实如此

928
00:30:42,069 --> 00:30:44,329
比如钱中心银行

929
00:30:44,329 --> 00:30:45,710
银行与资本市场

930
00:30:45,710 --> 00:30:47,930
银行确实表现强劲

931
00:30:47,930 --> 00:30:48,990
绝对没错

932
00:30:48,990 --> 00:30:49,940
太棒了

933
00:30:49,940 --> 00:30:50,759
我在说其他领域

934
00:30:50,759 --> 00:30:51,319
区域性银行

935
00:30:51,319 --> 00:30:52,740
它们开始表现良好

936
00:30:52,740 --> 00:30:55,359
这是我们近期重点强调的领域

937
00:30:55,359 --> 00:30:56,940
收益率曲线仍在平坦化

938
00:30:56,940 --> 00:30:58,220
或者仍在挣扎

939
00:30:58,220 --> 00:30:59,119
开始重新陡峭化

940
00:30:59,119 --> 00:31:01,359
我认为该板块可能暂时停滞

941
00:31:01,359 --> 00:31:05,319
本周我们已将其从广泛交易名单中移除

942
00:31:05,319 --> 00:31:07,319
但最终从现在到年末

943
00:31:07,319 --> 00:31:09,640
我们认为银行仍将表现优异

944
00:31:11,799 --> 00:31:13,660
而美联储希望增加放贷

945
00:31:13,660 --> 00:31:16,569
通过传统放贷渠道进行

946
00:31:16,569 --> 00:31:18,450
因此当收益率曲线在变平

947
00:31:18,450 --> 00:31:19,849
贷款增长正在加速

948
00:31:19,849 --> 00:31:23,569
这正在推动经济整体扩张的故事

949
00:31:23,569 --> 00:31:23,970
没错

950
00:31:23,970 --> 00:31:25,470
这是政府的策略

951
00:31:25,470 --> 00:31:30,169
他们希望经济有机增长由私营部门驱动

952
00:31:30,169 --> 00:31:32,009
而我们正在获得这样的结果

953
00:31:32,009 --> 00:31:35,579
尽管劳动力市场可能不如预期强劲

954
00:31:35,579 --> 00:31:37,980
但这也在推动盈利增长故事

955
00:31:37,980 --> 00:31:40,660
因为看到收入增长无需疯狂

956
00:31:40,660 --> 00:31:42,299
大量招聘员工

957
00:31:42,299 --> 00:31:43,799
这就是运营杠杆的故事

958
00:31:43,799 --> 00:31:44,400
一零一

959
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:46,589
我们将讨论通过AMI实现的成本控制

960
00:31:46,589 --> 00:31:51,199
关于半导体股票存在很多不同观点

961
00:31:51,199 --> 00:31:53,298
这些股票短期走势如何

962
00:31:53,298 --> 00:31:53,979
长期来看

963
00:31:53,979 --> 00:31:54,838
这些事情就是这样

964
00:31:54,838 --> 00:31:56,098
有很多看多观点

965
00:31:56,098 --> 00:31:57,809
也有很多看空观点

966
00:31:58,089 --> 00:31:59,390
我如何看待看空观点

967
00:31:59,390 --> 00:32:03,539
在我个人看来半导体股票

968
00:32:03,539 --> 00:32:06,079
暂且以未来六到十二个月为期限

969
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:09,480
我认为它们更像是

970
00:32:10,559 --> 00:32:17,880
远离不碰也不做空

971
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:19,940
我觉得它们只是

972
00:32:19,940 --> 00:32:20,859
如果你持有这些股票

973
00:32:20,859 --> 00:32:23,279
我确实持有大量AMD股票

974
00:32:23,279 --> 00:32:25,319
数百万美元规模

975
00:32:25,319 --> 00:32:28,019
但我不愿买入这些股票

976
00:32:28,019 --> 00:32:30,039
问题在于

977
00:32:30,039 --> 00:32:34,140
我相信这些股票今年或明年年初将见顶

978
00:32:35,259 --> 00:32:36,579
而且

979
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:38,980
当我提到见顶时

980
00:32:38,980 --> 00:32:39,640
我指的是

981
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:41,359
可能是多年级别的顶部

982
00:32:41,359 --> 00:32:43,119
没错，所以

983
00:32:43,119 --> 00:32:48,650
你想在潜在多年顶部买入这些股票吗？这没趣

984
00:32:48,650 --> 00:32:51,349
另一方面

985
00:32:51,349 --> 00:32:52,930
我不会做空这些股票

986
00:32:52,930 --> 00:32:53,910
因为你要明白

987
00:32:53,910 --> 00:32:54,990
如果你做空

988
00:32:54,990 --> 00:32:56,680
或买入看跌期权

989
00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:01,279
现在到那时的收益可能惊人

990
00:33:01,279 --> 00:33:02,579
这些股票可能翻倍

991
00:33:02,579 --> 00:33:04,099
比如AMD可能涨到一千美元

992
00:33:04,099 --> 00:33:05,220
如果你做空

993
00:33:05,220 --> 00:33:06,319
你完成了吗

994
00:33:06,319 --> 00:33:07,440
你知道你持有看跌期权

995
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:08,779
它们最终都会毫无价值

996
00:33:08,779 --> 00:33:11,930
此外当这些股票见顶时

997
00:33:11,930 --> 00:33:12,970
这并不意味着立刻发生

998
00:33:12,970 --> 00:33:13,750
它们正在暴跌

999
00:33:13,750 --> 00:33:18,049
它们大概只会上下波动却无明显趋势

1000
00:33:18,049 --> 00:33:19,849
大概持续一到两年时间

1001
00:33:21,529 --> 00:33:22,369
所以你在买入

1002
00:33:22,369 --> 00:33:23,289
这段时间的看跌期权

1003
00:33:23,289 --> 00:33:24,900
这些股票已经见顶了

1004
00:33:25,015 --> 00:33:27,599
它们会暴跌却从不暴跌

1005
00:33:27,599 --> 00:33:31,480
价格在二十到二十五个百分点区间震荡

1006
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,069
上下波动反复横跳

1007
00:33:34,069 --> 00:33:34,750
多头

1008
00:33:34,750 --> 00:33:35,890
始终无法真正兴奋

1009
00:33:35,890 --> 00:33:37,289
空头也难以真正兴奋

1010
00:33:37,289 --> 00:33:40,130
他们只需观察英伟达和视频就是绝佳例子

1011
00:33:40,130 --> 00:33:41,470
去年的那番讨论

1012
00:33:41,470 --> 00:33:42,779
两百多美元对吧

1013
00:33:42,779 --> 00:33:44,859
如今股票价格基本持平

1014
00:33:45,859 --> 00:33:47,420
期间股价时涨时跌

1015
00:33:47,420 --> 00:33:47,980
时而上涨时而下跌

1016
00:33:47,980 --> 00:33:48,960
四处波动

1017
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:50,819
却毫无方向

1018
00:33:51,230 --> 00:33:54,289
这就是我说的这种情况对吧

1019
00:33:54,289 --> 00:33:54,809
嗯

1020
00:33:54,809 --> 00:33:55,549
但这并不意味着

1021
00:33:55,549 --> 00:33:57,410
突然就崩盘了

1022
00:33:57,410 --> 00:34:00,400
视频股价从两百跌至五十美元

1023
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:03,539
就是上下震荡反复横跳

1024
00:34:03,539 --> 00:34:04,480
毫无实质进展

1025
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:08,280
所以这类情况会在许多股票中发生

1026
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:09,300
比如英飞凌

1027
00:34:09,300 --> 00:34:10,500
AMD

1028
00:34:10,500 --> 00:34:11,980
还有博通等

1029
00:34:11,980 --> 00:34:15,090
以及少数其他股票

1030
00:34:15,090 --> 00:34:17,269
它们将触及高点

1031
00:34:17,269 --> 00:34:19,349
要么今年要么明年年初

1032
00:34:19,349 --> 00:34:22,429
随后进入一到两年

1033
00:34:22,429 --> 00:34:23,148
就这样反复横跳

1034
00:34:23,148 --> 00:34:25,349
叮叮当当

1035
00:34:25,349 --> 00:34:27,869
之后才会崩盘

1036
00:34:30,929 --> 00:34:31,130
兄弟

1037
00:34:33,110 --> 00:34:37,480
这就是我的看法暂且如此

1038
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,329
玩得开心赚取财富

1039
00:34:39,329 --> 00:34:39,688
好的

1040
00:34:39,688 --> 00:34:40,949
感谢大家一如既往的支持

1041
00:34:40,949 --> 00:34:42,708
如果你想将知识提升到更高层次

1042
00:34:42,708 --> 00:34:44,088
你希望申请加入私密小组

1043
00:34:44,088 --> 00:34:45,268
你现在无法直接申请

1044
00:34:45,268 --> 00:34:47,039
但你可以至少加入候补名单

1045
00:34:47,039 --> 00:34:48,559
当你加入候补名单

1046
00:34:48,559 --> 00:34:51,599
每当我们将私密小组重新向新成员开放时

1047
00:34:51,599 --> 00:34:54,880
你将成为首批被选中加入我们的成员之一

1048
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:56,619
这就是下方的置顶评论

1049
00:34:56,619 --> 00:34:57,699
非常感谢你的加入

1050
00:34:57,699 --> 00:34:58,340
一如既往送上我的爱

1051
00:34:58,340 --> 00:34:59,440
祝你度过美好一天

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