美股：营收涨4倍，盘后美光杀回来了。【2026-06-24】

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Hello

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大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是SUNY

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跌幅0.1%

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在昨天跳空缺口底下连跌两天

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收出第三根阴线

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日线图上有弱势整理的感觉

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但是盘后涨了0.55%

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那要是五点才收盘呢

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今天就是一个阳线了

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为了把分期延长到美光发布财报之后

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我们可以来看一下标普指数期货

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标普指数期货盘后还在交易

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而且交易也划到了K线图中

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这为我们提供了一个大盘

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盘后还能分析大盘的工具

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那么在五点左右

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标普涨了0.56%

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日线图是小阳线

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期货的图比标普现货的图好看

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主要就是盘后美光杀回来了

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美光在盘后发布财报

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白天死气沉沉的行情在盘后被美光瞬间点燃

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上季度美观受益于人工智能的强劲需求

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季度营业收入同比增长超过四倍

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营业收入414.6亿

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比市场预测的358.4亿有大幅超过

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每股收益

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经调整后是25.11美元

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比预测值20.78美元

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也有显著超过公司预测

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新的一个季度营业收入为500亿美元

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与去年同期的113亿

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又是四倍以上的同比增长

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公司表示

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内存市场的供应紧张局面将持续到2027年以后

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公司已经与数据中心运营商和汽车制造商等客户签署了长期供货协议

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将订单锁定了三到5年

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去年同期镁光科技的毛利率是39%

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今年上升到84.9%

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比去年四季度的74.9%还要高

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这说明成本没有涨

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收入涨了

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所以毛利大幅提高

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盘后股价已经大涨

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创出新高

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存储股的强劲上升趋势有望持续

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一有回调

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大量的资金就涌入韩国

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虽然全民压上杠杆炒股

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但海力士要到美股上市

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这就带来了更大的资金体量

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韩国的SK海力士计划在美国也上市ADR存托凭证

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融资规模预计290亿美元

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根据公司提交的监管文件

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SK海力士的美国存托凭证将于7月10号开始交易

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存托凭证ADR听起来有点陌生

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实际上像台积电的美股就是一个ADRAD

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二是外国公司为了在美国上市

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通过美国存款银行发行的一种金融凭证

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ADR代表了一定数量的公司股票

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海力士的ADR相当于美国投资者通过ADR持有

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在韩国原上市交易所的股票

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美国股市流动性更好

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钱更多

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所以股票不但不会低于韩国

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甚至可能有溢价

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根据能搜索到的消息

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海力士一股可以分成十股的ADR

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代码是SKHY

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如果按韩股一股258万韩元计算

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折成美元是1672美元

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一股ADR是0.1股的海力士韩股

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那就是值167美元

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当一股海力士存托凭证以167美元开始交易时

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这个数字正好是美股接受度良好的价格区间

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那么估值如何呢

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韩国海力士258万韩元一股

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听起来天价了对吧

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但是呢因为净利润猛增

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每股收益增长非常快

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导致远期预测市盈率低到了8.74倍

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股价暴涨

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但估值还是个位数

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不过预期市盈率低代表投资者对未来盈利预期高

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如果是算滚动市盈率

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那就是在23倍到50倍之间

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半导体公司高市场曝光度

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高增长率

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这些因素是美股最喜欢的

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一旦在美股上市就可以对标美光

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闪迪等啊

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这些公司PEE都不止个位数

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比如从养护财经查镁光的估值是49倍

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闪迪是65倍

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那这么说来

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海力士的估值在存储板块当中是属于正常

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甚至有一定的低估空间

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假设海力士因此可以大涨一波

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那么对存储板块将构成利好

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DRAM这支ETFF持有两只韩国股票的仓位占一半

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剩下的是镁光闪迪等

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可以作为一篮子存储股的替代

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6月份一过

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下半年就开始了

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机构陆续给出了下半年标普指数的目标位

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平均指数目标价从年初的7600点左右上调到7850点附近

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之前的平均值是7716点

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6月末这个数字将略有上调

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摩根大通对下半年的股市仍然看好

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乐观情形下估计标普指数的年底目标从7600点上调到7800点

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到2027年中期

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标普目标价为8300点

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摩根士丹利从图上的8000点上调到8300点

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高盛维持看涨立场到8000点

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巴克莱在图中标记的目标价7650点

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又已经上调到了7800了

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美国银行

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富国银行等预测值在7300

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属于比较悲观的预期啊

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总体来看

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机构主要以看涨为主

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目标价低于当前指数的不多

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看跌下半年的机构屈指可数

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和平谈判之后

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战争利好消息对股市影响越来越小

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油价下跌仿佛是市场预料中的事儿

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并没有给股市带来多大的涨幅

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市场该回调还是回调

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这两天油价大幅回落

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快回到战前水平了

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根据CNBC的报道

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现在邮轮通过海峡是开了卫星信号

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公开通过海峡

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这表明船东对安全通过海峡有信心

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国际海事组织也表示

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已经收到了安全保证

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几百艘船得以撤离波斯湾

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过去24小时有36艘船通过海峡

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是战前平时流量的65%

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这是116天以来第一次看到实时流量监控

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出现了海峡通过船只的大幅回升

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数据表明

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中东的油应该可以顺利运出来卖了

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国际油价面临供应激增的影响

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必然下跌

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布伦特原油继续跌

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截图是73块五毛四美元一桶

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跌到70以下的目标位已经越来越近了

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那么能源价格下跌

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整体CPI物价指数回落

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也就可以期待运输成本回落后

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扣除了能源的核心通胀指标

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也就不会有大幅反弹的预期

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所以今天瑞银集团认为市场高估了美联储加息的次数

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这是基于昨天华尔街投行预估年内三次或两次加息预期做出的反馈

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实际上啊

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如果核心通胀没有大幅回升

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仅仅是维持当前水平

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那么美联储并没有大幅加息的必要

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因此我估计没有大幅加息

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就不太可能重演2022年的熊市

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怕他砸盘卧室

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目前给人的感觉就是人狠话不多

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非必要也看不到他出来说两句话

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但是有例行公事的时候

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市场就会关注他又要整什么幺蛾子了

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再过三周

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也就是7月14号

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沃什将第一次在国会作证词

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向参议院银行委员会汇报工作

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那总得说点什么了吧

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在78月份

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除了国会证词

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今年的8月下旬会在大提顿公园的杰克逊霍尔举办

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但卧实说话容易被解读为鹰派

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所以78月两次公开亮相

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恐怕又是市场动荡的来源

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什么格林斯潘看跌期权

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鲍威尔看跌期权

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甚至扩展到特朗普看跌期权

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这是什么东西呢

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其实就是说股市要是大跌了

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他们会来兜底儿

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卧室上台

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大家也希望他能给AI行情兜底儿

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要是股市崩了

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能出台救市的措施

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有人兜底

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这样呢大家就能够继续欢快的炒股了

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但是分析师认为

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握实的美联储看跌期权可能不怎么牢靠

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web bush公司在2月份就发布了一篇报告

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名为告别美联储看跌期权

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认为美联储为市场兜底的时代结束了

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这家券商说

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卧室很难以市场处于非极端危机时候来托市

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他重点关注的是精简资产负债表

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让他放水救市啊

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正好跟他的核心施政目标是相反的

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可以说小跌中跌很难期待沃时出手相救

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极端的市场危机出现时

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美联储因为要救经济

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会顺便把股市也救了

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半导体需求是目前股市最大的牛市来源

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位于半导体上游

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做芯片代工的台积电计划对7NM以下的先进制程业务进行涨价

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这意味着涨价范围包括75%

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先进制程业务涨幅5%到10%

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台积电股价也是一路上涨

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7NM以下芯片涨价

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芯片公司找台积电是抢产能

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而不是台积电找芯片公司争取订单

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所以涨价必然全部由下游消化

216
00:10:23,519 --> 00:10:26,220
销量不因价格上涨而减少

217
00:10:26,220 --> 00:10:28,179
所以销售增长

218
00:10:28,179 --> 00:10:29,360
价格也涨

219
00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:31,990
营业收入增长就基本确定

220
00:10:31,990 --> 00:10:33,690
股价涨得很慢

221
00:10:33,690 --> 00:10:35,009
但是很稳

222
00:10:35,009 --> 00:10:37,370
预计台积电还会继续上涨

223
00:10:37,370 --> 00:10:40,190
今天有个网红民营股突然上涨

224
00:10:40,190 --> 00:10:42,480
就是WENDY汉堡

225
00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:47,480
这是一个卖汉堡和饮料的品牌快餐店连锁公司的业务

226
00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:51,600
就是品牌连锁和餐饮业务长期下跌之后

227
00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:53,259
今天突然大涨

228
00:10:53,259 --> 00:10:55,879
盘中一度涨幅42%

229
00:10:55,879 --> 00:10:58,159
收盘涨了25%

230
00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:00,529
命鼓很久没有出现啦

231
00:11:00,529 --> 00:11:08,070
以前是game store a m c等通过WSB论坛的散户合力买入噶空空头

232
00:11:08,070 --> 00:11:09,210
从而大涨

233
00:11:09,210 --> 00:11:13,210
今天这个window e m啊也是一样的方法

234
00:11:13,210 --> 00:11:16,970
因为空头持仓占比达到了26%以上

235
00:11:16,970 --> 00:11:20,629
100股里面有26股被空头借去做空

236
00:11:20,629 --> 00:11:23,289
所以存在逼空的先决条件

237
00:11:23,289 --> 00:11:24,409
为什么呢

238
00:11:24,409 --> 00:11:26,090
因为融券的时候

239
00:11:26,090 --> 00:11:27,389
如果股价大涨

240
00:11:27,389 --> 00:11:29,120
空头得补保证金

241
00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:30,279
要是不补

242
00:11:30,279 --> 00:11:33,899
就会被强行从市场上买入股票来还券

243
00:11:33,899 --> 00:11:39,958
正好WSB论坛上面有一个帖子说我们要拯救WENDY这个铁门

244
00:11:39,958 --> 00:11:40,839
获得了关注

245
00:11:40,839 --> 00:11:42,418
散户就去集中买入

246
00:11:42,418 --> 00:11:43,619
挤压空投

247
00:11:43,619 --> 00:11:46,389
还就让他们给偷袭成功了

248
00:11:46,389 --> 00:11:51,649
那么WENDY作为星际民营股还是有那么一点投资价值的

249
00:11:51,649 --> 00:11:53,250
它不是亏损公司

250
00:11:53,250 --> 00:11:54,509
它有盈利

251
00:11:54,509 --> 00:11:57,899
每股盈利一个季度是12美分左右

252
00:11:57,899 --> 00:11:59,139
他还分红

253
00:11:59,139 --> 00:12:01,500
上季度分红是14美分

254
00:12:01,500 --> 00:12:03,740
全年是56美分

255
00:12:03,740 --> 00:12:07,919
那按56美分除以股价八块钱左右来计算

256
00:12:07,919 --> 00:12:10,190
股息高达7%

257
00:12:10,629 --> 00:12:13,669
西式快餐虽然不是什么高大上的生意啊

258
00:12:13,669 --> 00:12:16,330
但是股息还是能够按季度分红

259
00:12:16,330 --> 00:12:19,669
股息率在当前市场上也算是高的了

260
00:12:19,669 --> 00:12:23,350
今天我的公开账户在盘后五点多截图时

261
00:12:23,350 --> 00:12:25,419
净值是19.7万

262
00:12:25,419 --> 00:12:28,019
这还是盘后反弹了才有这么多

263
00:12:28,019 --> 00:12:31,000
感觉这个账户再不调整仓位啊

264
00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,318
都没有什么展示的价值了

265
00:12:33,318 --> 00:12:36,719
特斯拉一时半会儿不会有什么大的行情了

266
00:12:36,719 --> 00:12:38,698
反而是随机波动为主

267
00:12:38,698 --> 00:12:40,919
最近还有那么点利空

268
00:12:40,919 --> 00:12:43,720
美国有一辆model three撞死了人

269
00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:47,210
怀疑撞人时自动驾驶系统正在工作

270
00:12:47,210 --> 00:12:50,649
因此美国交通局介入立案调查

271
00:12:50,649 --> 00:12:53,860
这一事件已经使特斯拉连跌两天

272
00:12:53,860 --> 00:12:56,559
另外网上有一个说法称

273
00:12:56,559 --> 00:12:58,600
SPCX上市后

274
00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:01,450
马斯克的大饼更不值钱了

275
00:13:01,450 --> 00:13:04,190
以前是一家特斯拉吃饼能饱

276
00:13:04,190 --> 00:13:08,590
现在两家12万亿的大公司天天等着吃麻大饼

277
00:13:08,590 --> 00:13:10,399
怎么也吃不够

278
00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:12,360
还有一个阴谋论说

279
00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:14,720
就是要把特斯拉做低市值

280
00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:16,440
让它便宜好

281
00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:19,328
让SPACEX和特斯拉合并啊

282
00:13:19,328 --> 00:13:20,889
这些都是古巴的说法

283
00:13:20,889 --> 00:13:22,369
不是我的观点

284
00:13:22,369 --> 00:13:24,808
我觉得有趣就拿来分享

285
00:13:24,808 --> 00:13:26,970
其实根本不是这么回事儿

286
00:13:26,970 --> 00:13:28,389
半年要结束

287
00:13:28,389 --> 00:13:30,629
7月开头就会有交车数据

288
00:13:30,629 --> 00:13:34,360
股价下跌可能是预期交车数据不怎么样

289
00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:37,200
摩根大通下调特斯拉交付预期

290
00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:40,549
从43万辆下调到42万辆

291
00:13:40,549 --> 00:13:45,529
而且他们说油价上涨对电动车需求没有产生实质影响

292
00:13:45,529 --> 00:13:47,190
购车补贴取消

293
00:13:47,190 --> 00:13:49,149
美国电动车需求疲软

294
00:13:49,149 --> 00:13:50,990
车不是太好卖

295
00:13:50,990 --> 00:13:53,350
哎呀大饼吃多了

296
00:13:53,350 --> 00:13:55,669
还以为特斯拉不是车厂呢

297
00:13:55,669 --> 00:13:57,980
实际上它就是个汽车工厂

298
00:13:57,980 --> 00:14:01,690
销量和利润才是当前股东关注的

299
00:14:01,690 --> 00:14:03,710
唉痛定思痛

300
00:14:03,710 --> 00:14:07,730
上市公司本身必须要在一年两年内大赚特赚

301
00:14:07,730 --> 00:14:09,500
咱们才能赚钱

302
00:14:09,500 --> 00:14:12,580
他靠未来多少年能赚钱的美好蓝图

303
00:14:12,580 --> 00:14:14,840
换来的只会是大幅波段

304
00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:16,379
有上有下的

305
00:14:16,379 --> 00:14:18,740
所以特斯拉是个周期股

306
00:14:18,740 --> 00:14:20,740
得高买低卖哦

307
00:14:20,740 --> 00:14:21,419
说错了

308
00:14:21,419 --> 00:14:23,568
高抛低吸好吧

309
00:14:23,568 --> 00:14:25,048
今天的节目就分享到这里

310
00:14:25,048 --> 00:14:26,009
感谢大家收看

311
00:14:26,009 --> 00:14:27,168
我们下期节目再见

312
00:14:27,168 --> 00:14:27,840
拜拜

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