BV1KT746NEZ4 · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,320 大家早上好 2 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:01,000 各位投资者 3 00:00:01,000 --> 00:00:03,200 我订阅了迈克尔·巴里（Michael Barry）的Substack频道 4 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:06,500 但看到他所有的持仓都已公开 5 00:00:06,500 --> 00:00:09,029 正如所有新闻和媒体报道的那样 6 00:00:09,029 --> 00:00:13,539 所以我决定讨论最近的最新买入 7 00:00:13,539 --> 00:00:16,460 这些都是他大幅建仓的标的 8 00:00:16,460 --> 00:00:17,960 甚至更重的仓位 9 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,719 因为他正在抄底这些下跌的股票 10 00:00:20,719 --> 00:00:24,059 他也在密切关注成交量变化 11 00:00:24,059 --> 00:00:32,189 所有这些股票在过去一年股东结构都发生了变化 12 00:00:32,189 --> 00:00:34,189 因此巴里认为现在 13 00:00:34,189 --> 00:00:35,729 随着新股东的加入 14 00:00:35,729 --> 00:00:37,109 新所有者 15 00:00:37,109 --> 00:00:40,390 与之前的增长阶段不同 16 00:00:40,390 --> 00:00:42,049 在下跌过程中 17 00:00:42,049 --> 00:00:46,289 更高的成交量可能预示见底 18 00:00:46,289 --> 00:00:49,869 现在我们立即开始看这份名单 19 00:00:49,869 --> 00:00:50,969 Mercado Libre 20 00:00:50,969 --> 00:00:56,030 该股过去一年下跌约30%，但表现尚可 21 00:00:56,030 --> 00:00:58,840 但如果观察过去五年 22 00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:03,619 像Mercado这样的大公司却仅上涨20-30% 23 00:01:03,619 --> 00:01:07,719 市盈率从150降至43，涨幅仅6% 24 00:01:07,719 --> 00:01:11,739 发生了什么？我最近讨论过 25 00:01:11,739 --> 00:01:15,560 我会让助理在下方描述中添加视频链接 26 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:21,549 关于Mercado的内在价值分析 27 00:01:21,549 --> 00:01:23,790 深入细节可查看该视频 28 00:01:23,790 --> 00:01:27,310 简而言之 29 00:01:27,310 --> 00:01:32,090 我将其归类为四象限十二区 30 00:01:32,090 --> 00:01:35,069 加上年化回报率 31 00:01:35,069 --> 00:01:39,870 但风险是未来营收可能停滞 32 00:01:39,870 --> 00:01:44,239 当谈到巴里在此建仓时 33 00:01:44,239 --> 00:01:48,239 我认为风险与收益非常积极 34 00:01:48,239 --> 00:01:53,200 若Mercado持续30%增长 35 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:55,870 这意味着公司 36 00:01:55,870 --> 00:02:02,049 盈利潜力将在几年内翻倍 37 00:02:02,049 --> 00:02:04,989 持续翻倍增长 38 00:02:04,989 --> 00:02:08,930 市盈率可能降至20-25倍 39 00:02:08,930 --> 00:02:10,449 但不会更低 40 00:02:10,449 --> 00:02:14,900 四年间公司市值将翻四倍 41 00:02:14,900 --> 00:02:18,069 即使市盈率收缩 42 00:02:18,069 --> 00:02:20,509 投资回报仍翻倍 43 00:02:20,509 --> 00:02:23,189 因此这非常值得关注 44 00:02:23,189 --> 00:02:24,829 从风险角度看 45 00:02:24,829 --> 00:02:25,729 谁也无法预料 46 00:02:25,729 --> 00:02:29,149 拉美地区可能随时出现资本外流 47 00:02:29,149 --> 00:02:31,319 如巴西、阿根廷等 48 00:02:31,319 --> 00:02:33,259 但这始终需要警惕 49 00:02:33,259 --> 00:02:34,780 谈到拉美地区 50 00:02:34,780 --> 00:02:37,520 因此需谨慎调整投资组合 51 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:40,899 另一个来自上方的非常有趣的片段 52 00:02:40,899 --> 00:02:43,399 六百零五年以前 53 00:02:43,399 --> 00:02:45,750 现在降至两百以下 54 00:02:45,750 --> 00:02:50,090 过去六十六年表现也非常低迷 55 00:02:50,090 --> 00:02:52,270 但市盈率是十一 56 00:02:52,270 --> 00:02:55,289 公司仍以八到十个百分点增长 57 00:02:55,289 --> 00:02:56,789 到底谁错了 58 00:02:56,789 --> 00:02:58,789 是市场还是迈克尔·巴里 59 00:02:58,789 --> 00:03:03,069 我们三天前也讨论过并做了分析 60 00:03:03,069 --> 00:03:06,330 我们可以查看内在价值表 61 00:03:06,330 --> 00:03:08,610 您可以在免费课程中下载 62 00:03:08,610 --> 00:03:10,969 在下方描述中的链接里 63 00:03:10,969 --> 00:03:12,969 这里展示的是Adobe公司 64 00:03:12,969 --> 00:03:14,289 您也可以查看Mercado 65 00:03:14,289 --> 00:03:16,658 Libra和每股收益 66 00:03:16,658 --> 00:03:19,639 如果以个位数高增长 67 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:20,979 个位数增长率 68 00:03:20,979 --> 00:03:26,259 那么内在价值与股价相差不远 69 00:03:26,259 --> 00:03:29,800 八十二一九一对应十个百分点回报 70 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:35,490 Adobe只需保持八十六%的盈利增长 71 00:03:35,490 --> 00:03:41,110 这几乎通过回购和十五倍市盈率实现 72 00:03:41,110 --> 00:03:42,830 即可获得良好回报 73 00:03:42,830 --> 00:03:45,590 股票可能涨至四百多 74 00:03:45,590 --> 00:03:47,270 十年后 75 00:03:47,270 --> 00:03:52,629 如果我们稍微更乐观地认为业务持续增长 76 00:03:52,629 --> 00:03:55,620 回购与有机增长盈利 77 00:03:55,620 --> 00:03:57,159 市盈率二十 78 00:03:57,159 --> 00:03:59,099 明天就能翻倍 79 00:03:59,099 --> 00:04:01,520 若出现反转 80 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:04,419 这是最佳情况下的正回报 81 00:04:04,419 --> 00:04:07,030 但他们说我太保守 82 00:04:07,030 --> 00:04:07,889 也许我确实如此 83 00:04:07,889 --> 00:04:08,930 也许并非如此 84 00:04:08,930 --> 00:04:13,340 但作为价值投资者必须如此呈现 85 00:04:13,340 --> 00:04:14,620 无增长 86 00:04:14,620 --> 00:04:16,000 稳定下滑 87 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:17,920 糟糕的市盈率 88 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:21,738 当前价值总和极低 89 00:04:21,738 --> 00:04:24,939 如果Adobe十年后仍保持当前水平 90 00:04:24,939 --> 00:04:29,370 有评论称Adobe是企业平台 91 00:04:29,370 --> 00:04:32,930 企业无法使用非Adobe AI进行数字设计 92 00:04:32,930 --> 00:04:35,290 因训练数据无版权 93 00:04:35,290 --> 00:04:38,430 Save Fireflies由Adobe素材训练 94 00:04:38,430 --> 00:04:41,678 从而提供知识产权保护 95 00:04:41,678 --> 00:04:45,939 Adobe的最佳应用场景是协作平台 96 00:04:45,939 --> 00:04:47,009 润色处理 97 00:04:47,009 --> 00:04:49,569 及文件格式行业标准 98 00:04:49,569 --> 00:04:51,529 即使面临颠覆 99 00:04:51,529 --> 00:04:56,180 至少初期会分散至多个替代方案 100 00:04:56,180 --> 00:04:57,660 这些评论非常精彩 101 00:04:57,660 --> 00:05:00,350 这完全正确 102 00:05:00,350 --> 00:05:02,350 我完全赞同这些评论 103 00:05:02,350 --> 00:05:04,209 当我对一项投资持负面看法时 104 00:05:04,209 --> 00:05:07,389 并不意味着企业会破产 105 00:05:07,389 --> 00:05:09,329 我经常在评论中看到类似观点 106 00:05:09,329 --> 00:05:12,050 如果我对一项投资不乐观 107 00:05:12,050 --> 00:05:15,100 人们说该企业仍将存在 108 00:05:15,100 --> 00:05:16,100 会继续存在 109 00:05:16,100 --> 00:05:18,199 这就是我想解释的 110 00:05:18,199 --> 00:05:23,579 仅8%到12%之间微小的增速差异 111 00:05:23,579 --> 00:05:24,720 如果我们达到20% 112 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:26,819 这些是历史增速水平 113 00:05:26,819 --> 00:05:30,040 这会对股价产生巨大影响 114 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:38,220 这正是Adobe从600美元跌至200美元的关键 115 00:05:38,220 --> 00:05:42,459 只是增速预期的差异 116 00:05:42,459 --> 00:05:47,430 这不关乎Adobe是否会消失 117 00:05:47,430 --> 00:05:52,000 而是增速放缓的问题 118 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:54,600 这通常被称为双重差值 119 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:56,000 增速开始放缓 120 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:57,928 估值随之缩水 121 00:05:57,928 --> 00:06:01,728 作为投资者将面临双重打击 122 00:06:01,728 --> 00:06:03,329 还有另一个精彩评论 123 00:06:03,329 --> 00:06:05,959 我认为应该选择Adobe 124 00:06:05,959 --> 00:06:07,459 仅仅因为价格下跌 125 00:06:07,459 --> 00:06:10,819 这一点我必须赞同 126 00:06:10,819 --> 00:06:13,269 每当某物价格下跌时 127 00:06:13,269 --> 00:06:14,990 在我的研究平台上 128 00:06:14,990 --> 00:06:17,870 负面评论就会激增 129 00:06:17,870 --> 00:06:18,649 这家公司 130 00:06:18,649 --> 00:06:19,459 风险因素 131 00:06:19,504 --> 00:06:21,519 大家都在谈论风险 132 00:06:21,519 --> 00:06:26,449 当股价反转上涨时制造负面动量 133 00:06:26,449 --> 00:06:29,129 即使三个月前所有人都看空 134 00:06:29,129 --> 00:06:31,589 人们开始思考潜力 135 00:06:31,589 --> 00:06:32,668 增长空间 136 00:06:32,668 --> 00:06:35,509 这是人性的正常反应 137 00:06:35,509 --> 00:06:40,069 这是需要重点考虑的因素 138 00:06:40,069 --> 00:06:42,279 这也是另一个精彩评论 139 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:44,759 随后有人表示同意 140 00:06:44,759 --> 00:06:46,300 Adobe是优质股 141 00:06:46,300 --> 00:06:48,360 但现在我不会碰它 142 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:49,160 正如我之前解释的 143 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:50,319 Adobe是优质股 144 00:06:50,319 --> 00:06:52,819 但需看当前价位 145 00:06:52,819 --> 00:06:55,000 是否适合你 146 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:57,819 因为它不符合我的投资组合 147 00:06:57,819 --> 00:06:58,939 我的需求 148 00:06:58,939 --> 00:07:03,619 从我们展示的内在价值表来看 149 00:07:03,619 --> 00:07:06,129 股价可能快速翻倍 150 00:07:06,129 --> 00:07:07,350 甚至快速三倍增长 151 00:07:07,350 --> 00:07:12,930 如果营收增长不再放缓 152 00:07:12,930 --> 00:07:17,298 但我的问题是，大部分资金用于股票回购 153 00:07:17,298 --> 00:07:23,459 这假设十年后企业会更强大更有竞争力 154 00:07:23,459 --> 00:07:26,019 迈克尔·伯里持有满仓头寸 155 00:07:26,019 --> 00:07:26,480 我认为 156 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:28,959 他正在接住这把下落的刀 157 00:07:28,959 --> 00:07:32,680 但这仍是斯凯莱恩的价值投资 158 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:38,899 我能确定企业会以更强更强大的形态存在吗 159 00:07:38,899 --> 00:07:42,800 为我作为股东创造更多价值 160 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:44,199 这里科技含量太高了 161 00:07:44,199 --> 00:07:47,158 而人们往往忘记这一点 162 00:07:47,158 --> 00:07:48,098 这家企业 163 00:07:48,098 --> 00:07:51,740 过去几年确实实现了增长 164 00:07:51,740 --> 00:07:55,538 但之前也经历过停滞 165 00:07:55,538 --> 00:07:59,999 我认为这是内容创作的最佳时期 166 00:07:59,999 --> 00:08:02,870 一切Adobe所做之事 167 00:08:02,870 --> 00:08:05,850 或许不会像这里增长得那么快 168 00:08:05,850 --> 00:08:07,490 或许会放缓速度 169 00:08:07,490 --> 00:08:10,490 这将改变所有估值 170 00:08:10,490 --> 00:08:11,569 所以是的 171 00:08:11,569 --> 00:08:12,670 Adobe值得买入 172 00:08:12,670 --> 00:08:15,610 我始终会在标题中标注买入 173 00:08:15,610 --> 00:08:19,408 因为它获得三倍点击量 174 00:08:19,408 --> 00:08:21,848 因为人们想购买 175 00:08:21,848 --> 00:08:23,689 因为思维已经接受 176 00:08:23,689 --> 00:08:25,449 现在给我答案 177 00:08:25,449 --> 00:08:28,360 然后我会解释风险与回报 178 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:30,259 这是需要亲自观察的 179 00:08:30,259 --> 00:08:31,420 如何适合你 180 00:08:31,420 --> 00:08:40,190 这也是为何Adobe出现在我的价值投资象限 181 00:08:40,190 --> 00:08:41,690 如果我们转向Fiserv 182 00:08:41,690 --> 00:08:45,220 过去五年股价下跌56% 183 00:08:45,220 --> 00:08:46,919 过去一年半 184 00:08:46,919 --> 00:08:47,720 和半 185 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:50,490 股价暴跌75% 186 00:08:51,009 --> 00:08:52,590 糟糕的局面 187 00:08:52,590 --> 00:08:54,110 市净率8倍 188 00:08:54,110 --> 00:08:55,970 CEO刚刚离职 189 00:08:55,970 --> 00:08:57,590 我们曾讨论过这个 190 00:08:57,590 --> 00:09:02,049 我认为我会在初始多元化组合中持有 191 00:09:02,049 --> 00:09:04,169 将在我的研究平台上发展 192 00:09:04,169 --> 00:09:05,750 未来几年 193 00:09:05,750 --> 00:09:09,450 因此这也是覆盖股票 194 00:09:09,450 --> 00:09:12,470 最近刚发送更新邮件 195 00:09:12,470 --> 00:09:14,839 如果你想查看我的投资组合 196 00:09:14,839 --> 00:09:18,558 个人组合正在构建的多元化组合 197 00:09:18,558 --> 00:09:20,789 仍在持续优化中 198 00:09:20,789 --> 00:09:26,590 但模型组合稳健增长超15%年化 199 00:09:26,590 --> 00:09:28,149 过去八年 200 00:09:28,149 --> 00:09:29,470 两年一日全额退款 201 00:09:29,470 --> 00:09:30,429 保证问题 202 00:09:31,470 --> 00:09:32,110 退款政策 203 00:09:32,110 --> 00:09:36,970 请发送邮件至invest@sven@gmail.com 204 00:09:36,970 --> 00:09:41,350 如果您在寻找国际投资或低成本券商 205 00:09:41,350 --> 00:09:43,549 更低更好的收益 206 00:09:43,549 --> 00:09:44,629 那么请 207 00:09:44,629 --> 00:09:49,259 正如您正在查看此视频下方的描述 208 00:09:49,259 --> 00:09:53,639 查看盈透证券，他们提供小额佣金 209 00:09:53,639 --> 00:09:56,200 如果您点击该链接并支持该频道 210 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:59,240 我也用他们管理我的投资组合 211 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:01,289 我认为他们确实很优秀，请检查 212 00:10:01,289 --> 00:10:05,019 如果您能满足部分或全部的经纪需求 213 00:10:05,019 --> 00:10:09,129 以更低的成本回归派新CEO 214 00:10:09,129 --> 00:10:12,909 关键在于每股收益目标 215 00:10:12,909 --> 00:10:15,240 到2028年预计为12美元 216 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:18,299 市盈率仅为4倍 217 00:10:18,299 --> 00:10:19,899 这非常疯狂 218 00:10:19,899 --> 00:10:21,759 市净率是 219 00:10:21,759 --> 00:10:23,490 随便提一下 220 00:10:23,490 --> 00:10:25,549 如果达到12美元 221 00:10:25,549 --> 00:10:27,009 股价将至150美元 222 00:10:27,009 --> 00:10:27,730 160美元 223 00:10:27,730 --> 00:10:29,730 这将是翻倍收益 224 00:10:29,730 --> 00:10:31,950 如果达不到问题在于 225 00:10:31,950 --> 00:10:35,809 我们是否会在此位置大幅亏损 226 00:10:35,809 --> 00:10:38,960 因为他们确实有现金流 227 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:41,980 每年有34亿美元流入 228 00:10:41,980 --> 00:10:48,570 他们在金融科技支付处理领域有稳固地位 229 00:10:48,570 --> 00:10:53,899 这是一个值得观察和深入了解的有趣局面 230 00:10:53,899 --> 00:11:00,009 我们需要观察他们能否在最后两个季度实现业绩反转 231 00:11:00,009 --> 00:11:01,830 今年第二部分 232 00:11:01,830 --> 00:11:04,899 可能会看到股价反弹 233 00:11:04,899 --> 00:11:08,679 这就是风险与回报的双刃剑 234 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:13,700 仓位再次下跌70%达五年低点 235 00:11:13,700 --> 00:11:15,399 甚至可能更糟 236 00:11:15,399 --> 00:11:18,710 从2024年500美元高位 237 00:11:18,710 --> 00:11:21,070 市盈率降至9倍 238 00:11:21,070 --> 00:11:23,200 市值仅120亿美元 239 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:24,919 露露乐蒙 240 00:11:24,919 --> 00:11:26,559 股价曾达200美元 241 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:28,629 而耐克仅为77美元 242 00:11:28,629 --> 00:11:31,789 我解释了为何不押注这些股票 243 00:11:31,789 --> 00:11:33,090 我们最近讨论过 244 00:11:33,090 --> 00:11:34,090 露露乐蒙 245 00:11:34,090 --> 00:11:37,539 现在又下跌30% 246 00:11:37,539 --> 00:11:39,230 这是最终决策 247 00:11:39,230 --> 00:11:40,669 然后我说明 248 00:11:40,669 --> 00:11:41,509 如果您买入 249 00:11:41,509 --> 00:11:43,710 必须准备好再次买入 250 00:11:43,710 --> 00:11:45,269 然后在某个时间点您会说 251 00:11:45,269 --> 00:11:45,429 好的 252 00:11:45,429 --> 00:11:48,328 我打算先放一放，看看情况如何发展 253 00:11:48,328 --> 00:11:50,629 如果你在156美元买入 254 00:11:50,629 --> 00:11:55,259 现在是北美销售下滑的关键时刻 255 00:11:55,259 --> 00:11:55,980 关税问题 256 00:11:55,980 --> 00:11:56,740 公司 257 00:11:56,740 --> 00:11:58,620 我们九月才开始 258 00:11:58,620 --> 00:12:00,120 我认为这是积极信号 259 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,799 当形势开始好转时 260 00:12:02,799 --> 00:12:07,070 我们可能会看到中国增长评级上调 261 00:12:07,070 --> 00:12:08,090 他们早已知晓 262 00:12:08,090 --> 00:12:10,769 所以大家都在期待这一转折 263 00:12:10,769 --> 00:12:14,009 但记得股价曾达500美元 264 00:12:14,009 --> 00:12:17,110 这是橙色区域的目标价 265 00:12:17,110 --> 00:12:19,860 该分析师一年内仅有两次预测 266 00:12:19,860 --> 00:12:20,720 之前不久 267 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:23,600 分析师目标价在500美元以上 268 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:25,240 这简直疯狂 269 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:27,639 随着业务下滑 270 00:12:27,639 --> 00:12:29,259 这就是我为何认为 271 00:12:29,259 --> 00:12:33,539 除了获取信息并理解市场观点 272 00:12:33,539 --> 00:12:37,950 华尔街分析师完全无用 273 00:12:37,950 --> 00:12:43,359 因为他们的价格目标评估只会随股价下跌 274 00:12:43,359 --> 00:12:44,830 他们从不预测 275 00:12:44,830 --> 00:12:45,850 他们从未说过 276 00:12:45,850 --> 00:12:46,129 哦 277 00:12:46,129 --> 00:12:48,070 目标股价是一百美元 278 00:12:48,070 --> 00:12:49,870 当股价在500美元时 279 00:12:49,870 --> 00:12:55,629 再看这个，多数为强烈买入并持有（2024年） 280 00:12:55,629 --> 00:12:57,700 现在是2025年 281 00:12:57,700 --> 00:13:00,720 当他们说持有时，实际等同于卖出 282 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:02,620 不再有强烈倾向 283 00:13:02,620 --> 00:13:03,779 或仅剩一个强烈 284 00:13:03,779 --> 00:13:06,279 如今已变为两个 285 00:13:06,279 --> 00:13:08,159 仅为原来的五分之一 286 00:13:08,159 --> 00:13:11,009 这完全疯狂 287 00:13:11,009 --> 00:13:12,529 所以如果你买入 288 00:13:12,529 --> 00:13:13,850 他们大概率能存活 289 00:13:13,850 --> 00:13:15,049 他们目前盈利 290 00:13:15,049 --> 00:13:16,169 保持盈利状态 291 00:13:16,169 --> 00:13:19,808 如果能等待时尚趋势变化 292 00:13:19,808 --> 00:13:22,028 他们不太可能消失 293 00:13:22,028 --> 00:13:25,059 比如几年前流行的瑜伽 294 00:13:25,059 --> 00:13:26,539 未来会再度流行 295 00:13:26,539 --> 00:13:28,279 或者新的潮流 296 00:13:30,580 --> 00:13:33,059 这正是时尚的本质 297 00:13:33,059 --> 00:13:35,200 或许这说明一切 298 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:41,139 有意义的复苏可能要到2027年下半年才出现 299 00:13:44,879 --> 00:13:50,139 当人们听说股票在未来一年半内不会上涨时就会抛售 300 00:13:50,139 --> 00:13:51,820 股票因此进一步下跌 301 00:13:51,820 --> 00:13:52,919 所以很多 302 00:13:52,919 --> 00:13:55,980 大量行为心理学因素 303 00:13:55,980 --> 00:13:57,980 在这种情况下 304 00:13:57,980 --> 00:14:00,419 你要买他们的桌子（策略） 305 00:14:00,419 --> 00:14:04,919 只要稳定北美市场并在其他地区持续增长 306 00:14:04,919 --> 00:14:08,559 这就是股价将上涨50%的原因 307 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:14,938 你需要观察这些时尚行业趋势的波动性 308 00:14:14,938 --> 00:14:18,100 现在它们处于非常低的位置 309 00:14:18,100 --> 00:14:19,679 所以又是一个好机会 310 00:14:19,679 --> 00:14:23,500 像这样的押注组合应该表现优异 311 00:14:23,500 --> 00:14:25,500 但必须接受波动性 312 00:14:28,919 --> 00:14:31,440 所有相关性趋同为一 313 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:32,679 一切都在下跌 314 00:14:32,679 --> 00:14:34,320 我们稍后会讨论 315 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:36,970 伯里为此做了什么准备 316 00:14:36,970 --> 00:14:39,450 然后要看是否适合你 317 00:14:39,450 --> 00:14:40,399 就是这样 318 00:14:40,399 --> 00:14:41,860 我不做制药行业 319 00:14:41,860 --> 00:14:44,600 看起来动物销售有些下滑 320 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:45,080 国际业务 321 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:45,440 好的 322 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:47,460 投资回报率极高 323 00:14:47,460 --> 00:14:49,169 产品管线良好 324 00:14:49,169 --> 00:14:50,610 如果我们看数据 325 00:14:50,610 --> 00:14:53,090 所有指标稳定或增长 326 00:14:53,090 --> 00:14:55,850 所以要看是否适合你 327 00:14:55,850 --> 00:14:57,029 伯里看好它 328 00:14:57,029 --> 00:15:00,839 我对制药股了解不多 329 00:15:00,839 --> 00:15:02,119 维瓦系统 330 00:15:02,119 --> 00:15:08,220 这家股价大幅下跌50%的公司 331 00:15:08,220 --> 00:15:13,960 但持续增长且保持盈利的业务 332 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:15,779 现金流不断攀升 333 00:15:15,779 --> 00:15:17,759 指引非常积极 334 00:15:17,759 --> 00:15:25,309 他们受监管因为为制药行业做软件 335 00:15:25,309 --> 00:15:27,849 他们正在从Salesforce迁移 336 00:15:27,849 --> 00:15:30,328 如果你是Salesforce投资者 337 00:15:30,328 --> 00:15:31,349 那没问题 338 00:15:31,349 --> 00:15:34,710 用户可以迁移并节省费用 339 00:15:34,710 --> 00:15:36,750 相对估值非常便宜 340 00:15:36,750 --> 00:15:39,210 相比未来增长 341 00:15:39,210 --> 00:15:41,210 仍达11% 342 00:15:41,210 --> 00:15:44,440 需要评估这些押注 343 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:46,120 如果继续下跌 344 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:49,409 准备好买入更多PayPal 345 00:15:49,409 --> 00:15:51,649 我们之前讨论过 346 00:15:51,649 --> 00:15:54,990 曾因利好消息或收购出现反弹 347 00:15:54,990 --> 00:15:59,590 现在回到八倍市盈率水平 348 00:15:59,590 --> 00:16:01,450 六百亿回购在四 349 00:16:01,450 --> 00:16:02,850 七百亿市值 350 00:16:02,850 --> 00:16:04,009 如果他们继续这样 351 00:16:04,009 --> 00:16:05,149 他们回购了整个公司 352 00:16:05,149 --> 00:16:08,559 我以为自己不用PayPal 353 00:16:08,559 --> 00:16:09,159 没人用 354 00:16:09,159 --> 00:16:11,559 但如果你去我的研究平台 355 00:16:11,559 --> 00:16:12,820 你点击它 356 00:16:12,820 --> 00:16:16,509 你想报名课程 357 00:16:16,509 --> 00:16:17,769 就在这里 358 00:16:17,769 --> 00:16:21,350 你也可以选择PayPal 359 00:16:21,350 --> 00:16:24,509 我四五年前提前不用了 360 00:16:24,509 --> 00:16:28,129 过去几年不用PayPal没任何问题 361 00:16:28,129 --> 00:16:30,549 但看到很多人在用 362 00:16:30,549 --> 00:16:36,480 但货币兑换或相关费用极其糟糕 363 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:39,220 因此在业务方面 364 00:16:39,220 --> 00:16:40,019 是的 365 00:16:40,019 --> 00:16:42,740 他们仍在派发股息 366 00:16:42,740 --> 00:16:46,169 向股东回购六亿 367 00:16:46,169 --> 00:16:47,389 这太疯狂了 368 00:16:47,389 --> 00:16:50,818 但指引是三年增长 369 00:16:51,099 --> 00:16:53,269 中单位下滑 370 00:16:53,269 --> 00:16:57,009 他们将停止投资业务以节省资金 371 00:16:57,009 --> 00:16:58,970 当你进行回购时 372 00:16:58,970 --> 00:17:01,269 而业务在衰退 373 00:17:01,269 --> 00:17:05,650 回购意味着业务会更强大 374 00:17:05,650 --> 00:17:09,220 未来十年更强大 375 00:17:09,220 --> 00:17:11,019 并与人们混淆 376 00:17:11,019 --> 00:17:15,539 因此这些回购可能极具破坏性 377 00:17:15,539 --> 00:17:20,490 即使六亿投入最终推高股价 378 00:17:20,490 --> 00:17:22,130 但人们仍在抛售 379 00:17:22,130 --> 00:17:23,670 你可以看到这里 380 00:17:23,670 --> 00:17:26,690 总库存股现为四 381 00:17:26,690 --> 00:17:28,450 四点六亿 382 00:17:28,450 --> 00:17:31,279 对比市值 383 00:17:31,279 --> 00:17:35,210 他们已用市值完成回购 384 00:17:35,210 --> 00:17:36,710 公司依然存在 385 00:17:36,710 --> 00:17:41,619 股价因回购被严重打压 386 00:17:41,619 --> 00:17:42,359 但没错 387 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:43,660 如果持续支出 388 00:17:43,660 --> 00:17:46,819 我不知抛压从何而来 389 00:17:46,819 --> 00:17:50,380 长期节省策略不可持续 390 00:17:50,380 --> 00:17:52,359 或许抛压正在来临 391 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:54,409 因为大家都在买SpaceX 392 00:17:54,409 --> 00:17:57,949 或许SpaceX失宠后会改变 393 00:17:57,949 --> 00:18:01,589 谁知道我们聊聊Burry的空头 394 00:18:01,589 --> 00:18:04,150 特斯拉自愿做空 395 00:18:04,150 --> 00:18:04,690 仓位 396 00:18:04,690 --> 00:18:07,450 Oracle与英伟达看跌期权 397 00:18:07,450 --> 00:18:09,730 以及百个看跌期权 398 00:18:09,730 --> 00:18:11,470 如果我没记错的话 399 00:18:11,470 --> 00:18:15,670 特斯拉正在像月神之眼一样运作 400 00:18:15,670 --> 00:18:17,349 稍微下跌了一点 401 00:18:17,349 --> 00:18:18,470 但依然强劲运行 402 00:18:18,470 --> 00:18:20,869 英伟达势头更猛 403 00:18:20,869 --> 00:18:25,529 我认为这些看空头寸如果整个市场崩盘 404 00:18:25,529 --> 00:18:29,420 巴里也会在这里亏损 405 00:18:29,420 --> 00:18:31,859 但或许能部分弥补 406 00:18:31,859 --> 00:18:35,138 他将有足够的现金买入更多股票 407 00:18:35,138 --> 00:18:37,778 他非常确定AI是超级泡沫 408 00:18:37,778 --> 00:18:38,878 他对此并不喜欢 409 00:18:38,878 --> 00:18:39,798 这是混合策略 410 00:18:39,798 --> 00:18:41,278 他收购的公司中 411 00:18:41,278 --> 00:18:41,699 他说 412 00:18:41,699 --> 00:18:44,419 我预期15%的回报率 413 00:18:44,419 --> 00:18:46,979 其中许多业务风险过高 414 00:18:46,979 --> 00:18:49,380 但如果我们看看这份名单 415 00:18:49,380 --> 00:18:52,440 我们有潜在的Mercado Libre 416 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:57,329 如果业务持续增长五到十倍 417 00:18:57,329 --> 00:18:58,670 Free X Johnston 418 00:18:58,670 --> 00:18:59,609 正常化阶段 419 00:18:59,609 --> 00:19:00,710 露露柠檬 420 00:19:00,710 --> 00:19:05,130 Two Free X Zoe是两倍V Free X PayPal 421 00:19:05,130 --> 00:19:06,390 两倍回购力度 422 00:19:06,390 --> 00:19:08,390 五十个看空头寸 423 00:19:08,390 --> 00:19:11,799 视频看跌和底部风险 424 00:19:11,799 --> 00:19:15,449 或许Mercado Libre还会再跌30% 425 00:19:15,449 --> 00:19:19,048 Adobe PayPal底部风险稍高 426 00:19:19,048 --> 00:19:23,349 或许需考虑业务可持续性 427 00:19:23,349 --> 00:19:28,589 而这些看空头寸对先锋特斯拉英伟达是数十倍营收 428 00:19:28,589 --> 00:19:30,690 这个泡沫不可持续 429 00:19:30,690 --> 00:19:33,298 这是一个非常有趣的策略 430 00:19:33,298 --> 00:19:35,119 当然对于我们来说 431 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:37,000 做空很难 432 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:37,799 买入看跌期权 433 00:19:37,799 --> 00:19:39,240 滚动期权合约 434 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:40,450 或者类似操作 435 00:19:40,450 --> 00:19:42,809 但他表示自己在这样做 436 00:19:42,809 --> 00:19:44,529 有时会盈利 437 00:19:44,529 --> 00:19:45,579 多数时候不盈利 438 00:19:45,579 --> 00:19:47,539 所以他只是买入木材 439 00:19:47,539 --> 00:19:50,650 投资企业也是好策略 440 00:19:50,650 --> 00:19:52,450 现在有很多企业 441 00:19:52,450 --> 00:19:54,638 如果你持有十五家企业 442 00:19:54,638 --> 00:19:57,898 我认为并非全部相同 443 00:19:57,898 --> 00:19:59,838 应重点持有前三 444 00:19:59,838 --> 00:20:02,170 这就是我的偏好 445 00:20:02,170 --> 00:20:03,970 或许多年后 446 00:20:03,970 --> 00:20:08,130 我会将部分伯瑞思路加入多元化组合 447 00:20:08,130 --> 00:20:11,910 但现阶段我更看好自己的选择 448 00:20:11,910 --> 00:20:13,170 如果你在问我 449 00:20:13,170 --> 00:20:17,440 为什么你不慢慢买下这些优质资产 450 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:18,220 稳步进行 451 00:20:18,220 --> 00:20:21,069 我需要每年收购一家企业 452 00:20:21,069 --> 00:20:23,269 这对我来说已经足够 453 00:20:23,269 --> 00:20:24,230 感谢观看 454 00:20:24,230 --> 00:20:24,490 确认 455 00:20:24,490 --> 00:20:25,130 我在做什么 456 00:20:25,130 --> 00:20:26,480 我们下次视频再见
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