BV1MDMj6QEkt · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:03,859 这不仅仅关乎伊朗停火协议的结束 2 00:00:03,859 --> 00:00:06,780 或者特朗普刚刚对伊朗的言论 3 00:00:06,780 --> 00:00:08,380 我稍后会详细分析 4 00:00:08,380 --> 00:00:09,859 如果你有很多新闻发布会 5 00:00:09,859 --> 00:00:11,119 特朗普的大量新闻动态 6 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:14,199 但你必须理解当前市场发生的情况 7 00:00:14,199 --> 00:00:16,679 正在阻止市场触及新高 8 00:00:16,679 --> 00:00:17,929 所有时间新高 9 00:00:17,929 --> 00:00:24,370 有人给流动性沼泽接上了消防水龙带 10 00:00:24,370 --> 00:00:26,010 我们将要崩溃 11 00:00:26,010 --> 00:00:29,649 这到底会是什么样子 12 00:00:30,649 --> 00:00:32,789 首先剧透警告 13 00:00:32,789 --> 00:00:34,689 看起来太惊人了 14 00:00:34,689 --> 00:00:37,250 硬件无法创出新高 15 00:00:37,250 --> 00:00:39,369 纳斯达克100指数被压制 16 00:00:39,369 --> 00:00:47,030 其他板块也在时好时坏地争夺领涨地位 17 00:00:47,030 --> 00:00:50,609 但市场已无资金承接回调 18 00:00:50,609 --> 00:00:54,359 因为流动性已被抽干 19 00:00:54,719 --> 00:00:56,359 现金储备 20 00:00:56,359 --> 00:00:57,119 至少 21 00:00:57,119 --> 00:01:03,579 根据美国银行数据，现金储备降至自危机以来最低 22 00:01:03,579 --> 00:01:06,459 当你实际合并 23 00:01:06,459 --> 00:01:09,129 储蓄账户和货币市场基金 24 00:01:09,129 --> 00:01:09,349 你知道的 25 00:01:09,349 --> 00:01:10,069 很多人会说 26 00:01:10,069 --> 00:01:10,310 哦 27 00:01:10,310 --> 00:01:11,810 但 sidelines 上有大量现金 28 00:01:11,810 --> 00:01:15,069 看看货币市场基金与以往相比的规模 29 00:01:15,069 --> 00:01:18,730 但这只是人们将储蓄转入货币市场 30 00:01:18,730 --> 00:01:21,730 当调整之前的储蓄水平 31 00:01:21,730 --> 00:01:25,950 合并两者后经济中的可用现金 32 00:01:25,950 --> 00:01:31,060 现金等流动性异常低 33 00:01:31,060 --> 00:01:33,579 是什么加速了这一趋势 34 00:01:33,579 --> 00:01:39,519 如果有人能提前警告我们即将出现的极端流动性抽离 35 00:01:39,519 --> 00:01:41,349 称为太空探索技术公司 36 00:01:41,349 --> 00:01:41,989 哦等等 37 00:01:41,989 --> 00:01:43,329 我们确实这么做了 38 00:01:43,329 --> 00:01:44,870 但比我们预想的更严重 39 00:01:45,950 --> 00:01:48,640 SpaceX 不仅在市场顶点抽走750亿美元 40 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:52,840 在市场顶点抽走50亿美元 41 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:55,140 标记市场峰值 42 00:01:55,140 --> 00:01:58,140 他们不仅抽走750亿美元 43 00:01:58,140 --> 00:01:59,719 然后他们说 44 00:01:59,719 --> 00:02:01,480 再来一轮 45 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:06,109 再借100亿美元 46 00:02:06,109 --> 00:02:11,169 因为850亿美元还不够 47 00:02:11,169 --> 00:02:13,729 现在再借250亿美元 48 00:02:13,729 --> 00:02:16,699 再借250亿美元债务 49 00:02:16,699 --> 00:02:21,599 然后让所有 clown 风险承销商 50 00:02:21,599 --> 00:02:26,280 这些承销商为股票发行做市并预测 51 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,840 这只股票未来可能会达到十万亿的市值 52 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:31,840 在长期的未来某个时间点 53 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:34,360 因此我们设定了较高的价格目标 54 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:36,060 因为我们必须声明有较高的价格目标 55 00:02:36,060 --> 00:02:39,180 因为我们试图卖出这只股票啊 56 00:02:39,180 --> 00:02:44,379 让我们在这些备注中加入类似这样的内容 57 00:02:44,379 --> 00:02:48,590 尽管我们对SpaceX股票有很高的预测 58 00:02:48,590 --> 00:02:53,189 我们预测在2035年前不会有正自由现金流年 59 00:02:53,189 --> 00:03:00,459 几乎需要平均每年八十亿美元的外部资本 60 00:03:00,459 --> 00:03:03,229 今年我们已经消耗了八十亿美元 61 00:03:03,229 --> 00:03:05,189 加上新增的二十五亿美元借贷 62 00:03:05,189 --> 00:03:07,729 然后又是八十亿和八十亿 63 00:03:07,729 --> 00:03:11,400 再八十亿直到2034年 64 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:14,280 如果债务市场无法满足融资需求 65 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:16,659 SpaceX可能需要发行股权 66 00:03:16,659 --> 00:03:19,449 或放缓增长部署速度 67 00:03:19,449 --> 00:03:20,810 换句话说 68 00:03:20,810 --> 00:03:26,689 SpaceX正连接到现金流枯竭的奶嘴 69 00:03:26,689 --> 00:03:33,590 吸干了市场最后一点剩余资金 70 00:03:33,590 --> 00:03:38,280 直接输送到马斯克的宝座 71 00:03:38,599 --> 00:03:42,180 但这不仅仅是马斯克和SpaceX 72 00:03:42,180 --> 00:03:45,759 这种贪婪现象非常严重 73 00:03:45,759 --> 00:03:49,530 现在还有杠杆ETF产品 74 00:03:49,530 --> 00:03:54,509 比如ProShares的超空间两倍杠杆ETF 75 00:03:54,509 --> 00:03:56,680 这只ETF实际上已经下跌 76 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:57,319 呃 77 00:03:57,319 --> 00:04:01,379 从峰值下跌40% 78 00:04:01,379 --> 00:04:04,180 下跌约60% 79 00:04:04,180 --> 00:04:06,879 但这不只是SpaceX的问题 80 00:04:06,879 --> 00:04:11,169 这些杠杆ETF变得非常诱人 81 00:04:11,169 --> 00:04:14,229 而这只ETF大幅下跌 82 00:04:14,229 --> 00:04:18,810 现在连ETF都出现贪婪行为 83 00:04:18,810 --> 00:04:22,439 比如DRAM半导体内存ETF 84 00:04:22,439 --> 00:04:27,459 现在有人用两倍杠杆做RAM ETF 85 00:04:27,459 --> 00:04:32,589 该ETF也下跌了50% 86 00:04:32,589 --> 00:04:35,230 但并非两年内下跌50% 87 00:04:35,230 --> 00:04:37,000 像一年或两年时间 88 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:43,470 SpaceX两倍杠杆ETF30天内跌50% 89 00:04:43,470 --> 00:04:50,759 RAM ETF三周内跌50% 90 00:04:51,319 --> 00:04:58,550 TQQ三倍杠杆纳斯达克100跌20.5% 91 00:04:58,550 --> 00:05:03,129 或许不只是SpaceX吸干流动性 92 00:05:03,129 --> 00:05:03,990 我们没有 93 00:05:03,990 --> 00:05:08,779 但谷歌这边 94 00:05:09,220 --> 00:05:12,120 我们卖出八十亿美元A股 95 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:13,379 五亿美元 96 00:05:13,379 --> 00:05:14,790 剩余A股 97 00:05:14,790 --> 00:05:17,610 最初计划卖出75亿美元 98 00:05:17,610 --> 00:05:20,569 我们有伯克希尔哈撒韦的格雷格·阿贝尔 99 00:05:20,569 --> 00:05:23,610 急于促成交易展现谈判能力 100 00:05:23,610 --> 00:05:25,990 让他牵头收购首十亿美元 101 00:05:25,990 --> 00:05:26,889 因为人们认为 102 00:05:26,889 --> 00:05:27,290 哦好吧 103 00:05:27,290 --> 00:05:28,168 他永远不会卖 104 00:05:28,168 --> 00:05:30,468 我们只给他七折优惠 105 00:05:30,468 --> 00:05:33,730 这没什么，它已经蒸发了 106 00:05:33,730 --> 00:05:36,389 我相当确定他们大概是在 107 00:05:36,389 --> 00:05:36,990 呃 108 00:05:36,990 --> 00:05:38,738 三十六 109 00:05:38,738 --> 00:05:40,598 这代表七折优惠 110 00:05:40,598 --> 00:05:42,519 现在交易价是三五八 111 00:05:42,519 --> 00:05:46,509 所以折扣还没接近之前的交易 112 00:05:46,509 --> 00:05:49,399 打造伯克希尔在美银时期 113 00:05:49,399 --> 00:05:50,199 不过不管怎样 114 00:05:50,199 --> 00:05:52,120 谷歌估值七十亿 115 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:52,680 他们说道 116 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:52,839 哦 117 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:56,009 这里有大量可获取的资金 118 00:05:56,009 --> 00:05:57,990 还有大量可吸的资源 119 00:05:57,990 --> 00:06:00,230 让我们去到八十亿瓦德 120 00:06:00,230 --> 00:06:02,550 八十四点七 121 00:06:02,550 --> 00:06:03,790 五百万美元 122 00:06:03,790 --> 00:06:04,889 那我们提高这个数字 123 00:06:04,889 --> 00:06:08,329 并且在六月底开始抛售股份 124 00:06:08,329 --> 00:06:11,810 然后贯穿三季度和四季度，然后就爆发了 125 00:06:11,810 --> 00:06:18,209 谷歌股票同时下跌 126 00:06:18,209 --> 00:06:22,889 所有被风投锁定在SpaceX的资金 127 00:06:22,889 --> 00:06:25,629 因SpaceX时间表被锁定 128 00:06:25,629 --> 00:06:30,149 无法获得加速清算释放 129 00:06:30,149 --> 00:06:32,379 因为股价未上涨 130 00:06:32,379 --> 00:06:34,980 股价必须上涨才能加速 131 00:06:36,060 --> 00:06:36,379 呃 132 00:06:36,379 --> 00:06:39,360 再加上锁定期安排 133 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:41,779 亚马逊筹集二十五亿美元 134 00:06:41,779 --> 00:06:41,980 嘿 135 00:06:41,980 --> 00:06:44,860 如果大家都在吸流动性 136 00:06:44,860 --> 00:06:45,139 让我们 137 00:06:45,139 --> 00:06:46,579 我们都加入 138 00:06:46,899 --> 00:06:48,339 这头牛快干涸了 139 00:06:49,579 --> 00:06:51,420 亚马逊想要筹集二十五亿美元 140 00:06:51,420 --> 00:06:52,970 SK海力士 141 00:06:53,569 --> 00:06:55,889 全世界都在说该死 142 00:06:55,889 --> 00:06:59,139 这头牛看起来如此美味多汁 143 00:06:59,139 --> 00:07:01,579 尽管毫无现金剩余 144 00:07:01,579 --> 00:07:05,480 我们直接把消防水龙接上 145 00:07:05,759 --> 00:07:09,779 现在韩国的SK海力士宣布 146 00:07:09,779 --> 00:07:10,000 嘿 147 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:10,620 各位 148 00:07:10,620 --> 00:07:13,730 我们能加入派对吗 149 00:07:13,730 --> 00:07:20,189 那我们定在二十八亿 150 00:07:21,990 --> 00:07:22,329 是的 151 00:07:22,329 --> 00:07:23,129 那是星期五 152 00:07:23,129 --> 00:07:25,889 又是流动性枯竭 153 00:07:25,889 --> 00:07:27,279 真讨厌 154 00:07:27,519 --> 00:07:29,680 这头牛已经连接到 155 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:34,800 因为太多人试图靠它套现 156 00:07:36,050 --> 00:07:40,009 包括即将推出的可能涉及人类中心主义的开放 157 00:07:40,009 --> 00:07:42,480 人工智能就像人类 158 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:44,839 这头牛已经被榨干了 159 00:07:44,839 --> 00:07:49,660 我们可能得等它恢复流动性 160 00:07:49,660 --> 00:07:52,160 因为这太让人抓狂了（SpaceX） 161 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:54,480 这确实标志着流动性顶点 162 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:55,920 资金池已枯竭 163 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:57,639 这头牛已经干涸 164 00:07:57,639 --> 00:08:00,089 现在谷仓着火了 165 00:08:00,089 --> 00:08:03,009 因为特朗普点燃了火源 166 00:08:03,009 --> 00:08:03,449 他就像 167 00:08:03,449 --> 00:08:03,769 你知道吗 168 00:08:03,769 --> 00:08:06,928 看看那边的干草堆 169 00:08:07,209 --> 00:08:11,300 F你伊朗是垃圾 170 00:08:11,300 --> 00:08:11,920 是的 171 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:13,199 他确实这么说的 172 00:08:13,199 --> 00:08:16,899 特朗普说美国今晚可能对伊朗发动更多打击 173 00:08:16,899 --> 00:08:18,500 我们可能恢复封锁 174 00:08:18,500 --> 00:08:20,399 我们昨晚重创了他们 175 00:08:20,399 --> 00:08:22,000 四十架战机和无人机 176 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:23,540 无人机精准打击目标 177 00:08:23,540 --> 00:08:28,550 我们撤销了允许德黑兰售油的豁免权 178 00:08:28,550 --> 00:08:30,430 这确实是个大事件 179 00:08:30,430 --> 00:08:31,149 你看 180 00:08:31,149 --> 00:08:32,769 我们一直在调整 181 00:08:32,769 --> 00:08:35,649 因霍尔木兹海峡油运问题 182 00:08:35,649 --> 00:08:38,149 我们正在重新调配油运路线 183 00:08:38,149 --> 00:08:39,370 东西管道 184 00:08:39,370 --> 00:08:39,809 沙特 185 00:08:39,809 --> 00:08:42,408 沙特阿拉伯在多地增产 186 00:08:43,448 --> 00:08:46,849 以此降低霍尔木兹海峡的重要性 187 00:08:46,849 --> 00:08:49,210 当霍尔木兹海峡重新开放后 188 00:08:49,210 --> 00:08:53,230 或能观察到产油量净增长 189 00:08:53,230 --> 00:08:54,970 导致原油过剩 190 00:08:54,970 --> 00:08:55,889 再加上 191 00:08:55,889 --> 00:08:57,250 伊朗原油 192 00:08:57,250 --> 00:08:59,230 此前未自由交易 193 00:08:59,230 --> 00:09:04,000 现在进入市场加剧原油过剩 194 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:05,039 当然 195 00:09:05,039 --> 00:09:07,460 如果逆转这一切 196 00:09:07,460 --> 00:09:10,210 预计油价将再次上涨 197 00:09:10,210 --> 00:09:13,009 油价今早上涨约5% 198 00:09:13,009 --> 00:09:15,809 鉴于尚未看到 taco（可能指事件） 199 00:09:15,809 --> 00:09:16,919 虽然今天不是周二 200 00:09:16,919 --> 00:09:18,179 我们稍后讨论 201 00:09:18,179 --> 00:09:21,899 当前油价上涨了7%到8% 202 00:09:22,299 --> 00:09:23,360 这可不是好消息 203 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:25,440 情况实际上在恶化 204 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:27,159 不是变得更好 205 00:09:27,159 --> 00:09:29,980 今早进行流动性压力测试 206 00:09:29,980 --> 00:09:32,740 我们一直看空且非常 207 00:09:32,740 --> 00:09:33,980 非常谨慎 208 00:09:33,980 --> 00:09:35,500 尽管我们在抄底建仓 209 00:09:35,500 --> 00:09:39,440 我们昨天进行了大幅抄底操作并发布公告 210 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:40,899 六位数规模的抄底买入 211 00:09:40,899 --> 00:09:42,360 如果你想了解我们具体买入什么 212 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:44,850 记得访问kevin.com获取终身访问权限 213 00:09:44,850 --> 00:09:47,350 你可以看到六位数规模的抄底操作 214 00:09:47,350 --> 00:09:49,110 未来还将有更多抄底动作 215 00:09:49,110 --> 00:09:51,559 因为我们即将讨论更广泛的策略 216 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:52,799 如果你想参与其中 217 00:09:52,799 --> 00:09:54,039 务必前往我的 218 00:09:54,039 --> 00:09:54,759 kevin.com 219 00:09:54,759 --> 00:09:55,120 加入会议 220 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:55,860 kevin会员计划 221 00:09:55,860 --> 00:09:57,080 记住终身访问权限 222 00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:58,480 全年所有九门课程随时学习 223 00:09:58,480 --> 00:09:59,320 所有私密直播课程 224 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:00,500 每份阿尔法报告 225 00:10:00,500 --> 00:10:04,460 会员包含全部课程且可能具备税务抵扣资格 226 00:10:04,460 --> 00:10:06,059 大多数人可将其用于税务抵扣 227 00:10:06,059 --> 00:10:07,559 我们讲解资产配置 228 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:09,399 讨论销售谈判技巧 229 00:10:09,399 --> 00:10:10,980 税务抵扣政策说实话 230 00:10:10,980 --> 00:10:16,120 我认为这些课程中包含的建议和知识 231 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:18,200 在会员体系中 232 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:18,740 完全不可能 233 00:10:18,740 --> 00:10:20,500 无法收回投入成本 234 00:10:20,500 --> 00:10:21,860 更别说十倍回报 235 00:10:21,860 --> 00:10:22,340 当然 236 00:10:22,340 --> 00:10:23,379 这是我的观点 237 00:10:23,379 --> 00:10:25,240 结果可能因人而异 238 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:26,169 所以 239 00:10:26,169 --> 00:10:27,779 回到伊朗局势 240 00:10:27,779 --> 00:10:30,500 这一系列事件据称始于 241 00:10:30,500 --> 00:10:31,720 伊朗 242 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:32,059 呃 243 00:10:32,059 --> 00:10:35,960 过去24小时内伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡击中三艘船只 244 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:38,299 临时和平协议被认为无效 245 00:10:38,299 --> 00:10:40,919 有人认为唯一无效的是 246 00:10:40,919 --> 00:10:43,789 特朗普实际让伊朗 247 00:10:43,789 --> 00:10:48,049 交出高浓缩铀并停止打击行动 248 00:10:48,049 --> 00:10:49,950 那里可能是他们研发核武器的地点 249 00:10:49,950 --> 00:10:52,450 同时拖延谈判进程 250 00:10:52,450 --> 00:10:54,450 这显然非常糟糕 251 00:10:54,450 --> 00:10:55,809 可能双倍糟糕 252 00:10:55,809 --> 00:10:58,429 我们可能无法攻打铁镐山 253 00:10:58,429 --> 00:11:01,159 因为它实在太他妈深了啊 254 00:11:01,159 --> 00:11:02,899 这大概解释了为什么我们还没 255 00:11:02,899 --> 00:11:03,419 以色列 256 00:11:03,419 --> 00:11:05,820 正在深入黎巴嫩发动袭击 257 00:11:05,820 --> 00:11:08,500 同时打乱了既定计划 258 00:11:08,500 --> 00:11:11,320 现在唐纳德·特朗普又回到了 259 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:16,620 我们将摧毁伊朗文明中心 260 00:11:16,620 --> 00:11:19,899 重点打击能源和淡化 261 00:11:19,899 --> 00:11:22,899 以及海水淡化基础设施 262 00:11:22,899 --> 00:11:24,940 所以我们真的会搞垮伊朗 263 00:11:24,940 --> 00:11:28,240 因为目前冻结资金方面已有少许进展 264 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:29,080 核计划 265 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:33,190 浓缩铀问题，说实话伊朗在特朗普口中 266 00:11:33,190 --> 00:11:35,019 纯粹是浪费时间 267 00:11:35,019 --> 00:11:37,080 我不想再理他们了 268 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:38,080 他们就是垃圾 269 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:39,919 他们是最大的垃圾 270 00:11:39,919 --> 00:11:41,240 没人比他们更垃圾 271 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:42,750 比伊朗更垃圾 272 00:11:43,149 --> 00:11:45,070 除了白宫内幕交易者 273 00:11:45,070 --> 00:11:45,870 哦抱歉 274 00:11:45,870 --> 00:11:46,830 不该说那个 275 00:11:46,830 --> 00:11:50,289 刚才读稿超前了 276 00:11:50,570 --> 00:11:52,529 数据陷阱罢了 277 00:11:52,529 --> 00:11:53,389 好的 278 00:11:53,389 --> 00:11:55,570 那我们如何调和这一切 279 00:11:55,570 --> 00:11:57,948 显然我们期待塔可 280 00:11:57,948 --> 00:11:59,028 但到了周二 281 00:11:59,028 --> 00:12:02,000 显然我们都期待某种塔可 282 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:03,919 油价可能飙升 283 00:12:03,919 --> 00:12:05,539 因为平仓操作和油价 284 00:12:05,539 --> 00:12:09,730 所有人都在做空油价，现在出现逼空行情 285 00:12:09,730 --> 00:12:11,710 油价因做空逼空而上涨 286 00:12:11,710 --> 00:12:13,110 我们期待塔可 287 00:12:13,110 --> 00:12:16,110 地缘政治问题属于政治议题 288 00:12:16,110 --> 00:12:18,809 大概是个回调 289 00:12:18,809 --> 00:12:23,840 问题是严重缺乏现金 290 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:26,279 今早损失了五万美元 291 00:12:26,279 --> 00:12:27,580 关键分水岭 292 00:12:27,580 --> 00:12:31,870 我们在五万二零六线出现双重拒绝 293 00:12:31,870 --> 00:12:35,700 之后市场持续下跌 294 00:12:35,700 --> 00:12:38,840 市场整体走势疲软 295 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:41,929 通常这些会成为机会 296 00:12:42,409 --> 00:12:44,250 尤其是现金极度匮乏 297 00:12:44,250 --> 00:12:49,750 问题是仍有更多流动性流失 298 00:12:49,750 --> 00:12:54,370 这就是我们在直播中制定的计划 299 00:12:54,370 --> 00:12:55,889 我稍后会透露一点 300 00:12:55,889 --> 00:12:58,169 我们制定的计划是 301 00:12:58,169 --> 00:13:03,850 本周通过抛售进行长期操作 302 00:13:03,850 --> 00:13:09,669 下周剩余部分可能更具战略意义 303 00:13:09,669 --> 00:13:15,830 希望在三星海力士流动性危机后 304 00:13:15,830 --> 00:13:17,980 周五将进行80亿美元IPO 305 00:13:17,980 --> 00:13:21,899 希望稳定内存市场 306 00:13:21,899 --> 00:13:28,639 至少稳定人工智能交易的硬件板块 307 00:13:28,639 --> 00:13:32,669 若下周能稳定硬件 308 00:13:32,669 --> 00:13:35,850 那么医疗和软件等板块 309 00:13:35,850 --> 00:13:38,710 过去两周至三周表现领先 310 00:13:38,710 --> 00:13:41,039 或将恢复上涨趋势 311 00:13:41,039 --> 00:13:44,500 但今日市场波动加剧 312 00:13:44,500 --> 00:13:45,659 归因于伊朗局势 313 00:13:45,659 --> 00:13:49,600 此时市场已大量资金外流 314 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:55,820 因此我们保持谨慎，建议现金无债 315 00:13:56,139 --> 00:13:58,860 无债则不会破产 316 00:13:59,940 --> 00:14:02,159 我的观点 317 00:14:02,159 --> 00:14:04,370 并与所有人分享的是 318 00:14:04,370 --> 00:14:06,850 预计将迎来全面回调 319 00:14:06,850 --> 00:14:10,009 将回归某种协商解决方案 320 00:14:10,009 --> 00:14:13,950 几乎确定会触发回调 321 00:14:13,950 --> 00:14:14,330 现在 322 00:14:14,330 --> 00:14:15,250 这并非意味着 323 00:14:15,250 --> 00:14:18,120 我认为核威胁未解除 324 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:20,159 将以延迟形式出现回调 325 00:14:20,159 --> 00:14:22,000 因特朗普厌恶股市下跌 326 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:22,679 股价下跌 327 00:14:22,679 --> 00:14:26,960 这是他总统表现的民意指标 328 00:14:27,820 --> 00:14:30,620 他擅长言不由衷 329 00:14:30,620 --> 00:14:31,879 他会说例如 330 00:14:31,879 --> 00:14:32,279 你知道的 331 00:14:32,279 --> 00:14:33,080 短期内 332 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:35,259 股市和油价可能下跌 333 00:14:35,259 --> 00:14:37,139 他会说早告诉你们了 334 00:14:37,139 --> 00:14:39,399 我们都知道 335 00:14:39,399 --> 00:14:42,480 这与他的自尊心相关 336 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:46,059 尽管我们预期回调 337 00:14:46,059 --> 00:14:49,870 部分人误读我昨日观点 338 00:14:49,870 --> 00:14:50,690 昨日 339 00:14:50,690 --> 00:14:51,909 有人表示 340 00:14:51,909 --> 00:14:52,230 哦 341 00:14:52,230 --> 00:14:52,710 凯文 342 00:14:52,710 --> 00:14:55,169 你似乎在调整对ServiceNow的立场 343 00:14:55,169 --> 00:14:56,970 我们以为你不再看好ServiceNow 344 00:14:56,970 --> 00:14:58,409 我不看好ServiceNow 345 00:14:58,409 --> 00:14:59,730 我必须特别澄清 346 00:14:59,730 --> 00:15:00,990 我不看好ServiceNow 347 00:15:00,990 --> 00:15:05,309 今早我们可能花了一个小时在课程成员直播中 348 00:15:05,309 --> 00:15:06,230 深入分析 349 00:15:06,230 --> 00:15:08,190 进行基本面财报研究 350 00:15:08,190 --> 00:15:08,710 电话会议 351 00:15:08,710 --> 00:15:09,710 年度报告 352 00:15:09,710 --> 00:15:10,909 季度报告 353 00:15:10,909 --> 00:15:11,429 呃 354 00:15:11,429 --> 00:15:14,909 透过服务现状表面看实际发生的事情 355 00:15:14,909 --> 00:15:18,389 我给你个小预告 356 00:15:18,389 --> 00:15:19,808 我还是不喜欢 357 00:15:21,448 --> 00:15:24,230 服务现状现在没有任何变化 358 00:15:24,230 --> 00:15:27,070 Palantir因为有些人可能搞混了 359 00:15:27,070 --> 00:15:28,669 看来我已经解释得很清楚了 360 00:15:28,669 --> 00:15:32,740 我认为Palantir的合理目标价是合理的 361 00:15:32,740 --> 00:15:35,639 年底前大约一百九十美元 362 00:15:36,259 --> 00:15:37,700 人们听到我说道 363 00:15:37,700 --> 00:15:38,139 凯文，你在说什么 364 00:15:38,139 --> 00:15:39,460 但你说过八十九美元 365 00:15:39,460 --> 00:15:40,200 是的 366 00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:44,120 我希望能以八十九美元买入Palantir 367 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:44,919 事实上 368 00:15:44,919 --> 00:15:47,240 从技术面来看 369 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:50,889 可以看到八十九美元是我最强支撑位 370 00:15:50,889 --> 00:15:51,950 这就是我一直在关注的 371 00:15:51,950 --> 00:15:54,610 紫色远强于蓝色或绿色 372 00:15:54,610 --> 00:15:55,629 如果你一直关注的话 373 00:15:55,629 --> 00:15:56,740 你已经知道这一点 374 00:15:56,740 --> 00:15:58,700 因此这是一个技术支撑线 375 00:15:58,700 --> 00:16:03,350 我希望这波下跌趋势能将股价拉至 376 00:16:03,350 --> 00:16:05,309 并非因为我看空英镑 377 00:16:05,309 --> 00:16:08,240 而是因为我看多Palantir 378 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:12,659 我认为这将是Palantir的最终底部 379 00:16:12,659 --> 00:16:14,370 短期内 380 00:16:14,370 --> 00:16:16,789 除非软件业务开始爆发 381 00:16:16,789 --> 00:16:18,269 我们经历了很多反复 382 00:16:18,269 --> 00:16:20,809 我认为软件业务不会直线上涨 383 00:16:20,809 --> 00:16:22,600 必须做好波动准备 384 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:24,139 所以 385 00:16:24,139 --> 00:16:26,149 我们持有部分Palantir 386 00:16:26,629 --> 00:16:29,549 我希望能持有更多Palantir 387 00:16:29,549 --> 00:16:30,789 但目前持有量不多 388 00:16:30,789 --> 00:16:33,340 但我希望能持有更多Palantir 389 00:16:33,340 --> 00:16:33,860 因此 390 00:16:33,860 --> 00:16:34,299 虽然我认为 391 00:16:34,299 --> 00:16:37,080 年底前合理价格为一百九十美元 392 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:41,080 未来五到十年将大幅超越这个价位 393 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:43,818 当然我认为确实存在 394 00:16:43,818 --> 00:16:44,318 呃 395 00:16:44,318 --> 00:16:48,909 或许在接近八十九美元时买入更有回报 396 00:16:49,629 --> 00:16:53,490 尤其是当前市场流动性不足 397 00:16:53,490 --> 00:16:58,139 这源于短期地缘政治问题 398 00:16:58,139 --> 00:16:58,460 而 399 00:16:58,460 --> 00:16:59,200 讽刺的是 400 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:01,950 Palantir从地缘政治动荡中获益 401 00:17:01,950 --> 00:17:04,410 随着他们的产品越来越深入融入 402 00:17:04,410 --> 00:17:05,130 呃 403 00:17:05,130 --> 00:17:06,589 北约和你 404 00:17:06,589 --> 00:17:06,970 S 405 00:17:06,970 --> 00:17:08,429 军事联盟 406 00:17:08,429 --> 00:17:08,888 嗯 407 00:17:08,888 --> 00:17:10,628 以及国家层面 408 00:17:10,628 --> 00:17:11,410 没错 409 00:17:11,410 --> 00:17:12,329 不过暂且不提 410 00:17:12,329 --> 00:17:13,390 这就是帕拉蒂姆 411 00:17:13,390 --> 00:17:14,089 呃 412 00:17:14,089 --> 00:17:15,029 Salesforce 413 00:17:15,029 --> 00:17:19,160 Salesforce经历了演变 414 00:17:20,329 --> 00:17:24,190 已经进化了，因为我们过去一直在研究Salesforce 415 00:17:24,190 --> 00:17:24,569 呃 416 00:17:24,569 --> 00:17:26,509 今年可能三周了 417 00:17:26,509 --> 00:17:27,859 两到三周 418 00:17:27,859 --> 00:17:30,519 CEO做了一件事 419 00:17:30,519 --> 00:17:37,839 在我看来这是非常明确的信号，极其清晰的信号 420 00:17:37,839 --> 00:17:38,920 我来展示给你看 421 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:39,819 你知道吗 422 00:17:39,819 --> 00:17:40,859 哦好人 423 00:17:40,859 --> 00:17:41,700 我爱你们 424 00:17:41,700 --> 00:17:44,250 我觉得你已经听过足够多的推销了 425 00:17:44,250 --> 00:17:44,910 哦好吧 426 00:17:44,910 --> 00:17:45,230 嘿 427 00:17:45,230 --> 00:17:45,750 你知道的 428 00:17:45,750 --> 00:17:47,190 加入课程会员 429 00:17:47,190 --> 00:17:49,670 你知道在那里你可以获取交易提醒 430 00:17:49,670 --> 00:17:51,789 你知道在那里你能获得所有分析 431 00:17:51,789 --> 00:17:53,720 我们每天都在做的 432 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:55,140 而且人们真的很喜欢 433 00:17:55,140 --> 00:17:56,680 因为就像随意收听一样 434 00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:59,250 你知道每天早上你也会收到阿尔法报告 435 00:17:59,250 --> 00:18:01,430 我们已经说了过去三周 436 00:18:01,430 --> 00:18:05,869 必须保持谨慎，因为我们正在等待新的行业领导 437 00:18:05,869 --> 00:18:06,869 现在 438 00:18:07,190 --> 00:18:08,630 我们来看Salesforce 439 00:18:08,630 --> 00:18:10,829 你需要知道的某件事 440 00:18:10,829 --> 00:18:13,219 很多人没注意到 441 00:18:13,219 --> 00:18:14,038 呃 442 00:18:14,038 --> 00:18:14,939 我们看看这里 443 00:18:14,939 --> 00:18:19,170 我的Salesforce股票在哪 这里找到了 444 00:18:19,170 --> 00:18:21,549 我们点到这里 445 00:18:21,549 --> 00:18:23,970 他们在财报电话会议中提到的内容 446 00:18:23,970 --> 00:18:25,789 还有更多注释 447 00:18:25,789 --> 00:18:27,630 但这是关键的一行 448 00:18:27,630 --> 00:18:29,609 只要你持续观看这个视频就能获得这个福利 449 00:18:29,609 --> 00:18:31,009 只要你在视频中停留足够久 450 00:18:31,009 --> 00:18:32,609 感谢聆听 451 00:18:33,609 --> 00:18:35,529 债务发行所得款项 452 00:18:35,529 --> 00:18:37,410 好的，还有股票回购 453 00:18:37,410 --> 00:18:40,159 截至四月三十日的三个月内 454 00:18:40,159 --> 00:18:43,400 截至四月三十日的三个月期间 455 00:18:43,759 --> 00:18:49,849 Salesforce销售额在约170至210美元之间，发行了二十 456 00:18:49,849 --> 00:18:50,529 哦 457 00:18:50,529 --> 00:18:50,930 看看这个 458 00:18:50,930 --> 00:18:51,450 他们发行了 459 00:18:51,450 --> 00:18:51,750 呃 460 00:18:51,750 --> 00:18:53,109 两四 461 00:18:53,109 --> 00:19:01,190 发行了80亿美元债务以回购27.2亿美元股票 462 00:19:01,190 --> 00:19:03,460 回购了22亿美元股票 463 00:19:03,460 --> 00:19:06,460 他们实际回购的股票多于发行的债务 464 00:19:06,460 --> 00:19:11,789 但他们基本上通过梯形借贷方式在接下来的十年到二十年间融资 465 00:19:11,789 --> 00:19:12,289 两 466 00:19:12,289 --> 00:19:16,289 投入50亿美元购入股票低点 467 00:19:16,289 --> 00:19:18,890 首席执行官对此的评论 468 00:19:18,890 --> 00:19:19,829 在财报电话会议上 469 00:19:19,829 --> 00:19:20,450 你应该研究 470 00:19:20,450 --> 00:19:22,490 你可以查看我们关于此的其他注释 471 00:19:22,490 --> 00:19:26,190 但这作为信号非常有趣 472 00:19:26,190 --> 00:19:31,470 这与ServiceNow高管团队传递的信号截然相反 473 00:19:31,470 --> 00:19:31,990 然后 474 00:19:31,990 --> 00:19:32,369 当然 475 00:19:32,369 --> 00:19:34,470 当我们审视Salesforce基本面时 476 00:19:34,470 --> 00:19:35,789 无论是 477 00:19:35,789 --> 00:19:39,459 churn率或 churn率无变化 478 00:19:39,459 --> 00:19:41,999 这也与我们观察到的ServiceNow情况相反 479 00:19:41,999 --> 00:19:42,578 呃 480 00:19:42,578 --> 00:19:45,190 或利润率扩张 481 00:19:45,190 --> 00:19:46,049 定价能力 482 00:19:46,049 --> 00:19:46,970 资产负债表 483 00:19:46,970 --> 00:19:49,450 请查看这些基本面分析 484 00:19:49,450 --> 00:19:50,650 加入我在me的会员 485 00:19:50,650 --> 00:19:51,369 Kevin频道 486 00:19:51,369 --> 00:19:53,089 你现在已经熟悉这个观点了 487 00:19:53,089 --> 00:19:54,779 总结而言 488 00:19:54,779 --> 00:19:58,819 显然我们正在突破 489 00:19:59,609 --> 00:20:03,719 不幸的是十年期国债处于糟糕水平 490 00:20:03,719 --> 00:20:04,959 这很不好 491 00:20:04,959 --> 00:20:12,519 因为这也恰逢劳动力市场再次略有疲软 492 00:20:12,519 --> 00:20:12,960 现在 493 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:16,109 我们去年末经历了约六个月的疲软 494 00:20:16,109 --> 00:20:19,069 今年上半年出现了反弹 495 00:20:19,069 --> 00:20:19,869 这非常好 496 00:20:19,869 --> 00:20:22,750 但最新劳动力报告令人失望 497 00:20:22,750 --> 00:20:26,769 数据显示过去一年我们净流失岗位 498 00:20:26,769 --> 00:20:31,638 失业率看似低是因为劳动力参与率下降 499 00:20:31,638 --> 00:20:32,999 如果该水平稳定 500 00:20:32,999 --> 00:20:35,058 失业率将超过五% 501 00:20:35,058 --> 00:20:37,878 目前可能接近百分之六 502 00:20:37,878 --> 00:20:40,789 人们会大喊经济衰退 503 00:20:40,950 --> 00:20:42,309 但你知道的 504 00:20:42,309 --> 00:20:43,990 在某些数据统计上 505 00:20:43,990 --> 00:20:45,529 关于我们如何计算 506 00:20:45,529 --> 00:20:46,659 参与度 507 00:20:46,659 --> 00:20:48,298 巧妙掩盖了 508 00:20:48,298 --> 00:20:52,500 过去一年劳动力流失了百万人口 509 00:20:52,500 --> 00:20:54,799 不幸的是突破这一水平 510 00:20:54,799 --> 00:20:57,349 我们本应回落 511 00:20:57,349 --> 00:21:00,490 我们经常在四五七点出现小幅反弹 512 00:21:00,490 --> 00:21:02,339 我们总能迅速回调 513 00:21:02,339 --> 00:21:07,680 现在只会加剧市场痛苦 514 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:11,720 我个人认为可以长期分批买入低点 515 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:13,140 短期买入 516 00:21:13,140 --> 00:21:17,980 不过我对短期持谨慎看空态度 517 00:21:17,980 --> 00:21:21,469 但这些都是长期投资机会 518 00:21:21,469 --> 00:21:23,669 为什么不在这里宣传这些内容 519 00:21:23,669 --> 00:21:25,429 我觉得没人知道这件事 520 00:21:25,429 --> 00:21:27,640 我们尝试小范围推广看看效果 521 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:28,420 恭喜 522 00:21:28,420 --> 00:21:28,680 天啊 523 00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:29,440 你已经做了这么多 524 00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:30,279 大家都喜欢你 525 00:21:30,279 --> 00:21:31,200 人们敬佩你 526 00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:32,279 这里是凯文·帕弗拉特 527 00:21:32,279 --> 00:21:34,039 金融分析师兼YouTuber 528 00:21:34,039 --> 00:21:34,680 认识凯文 529 00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:36,099 很高兴听到你的观点
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