美股 奇迹般的反弹了一下！美股盈利面临双重考验。Meta内部大会坦白局！TSLA狂揽韩国三成进口车市场。SOXL、SNDK、IREN、MRVL、TSLA、DEL

1
00:00:02,540 --> 00:00:03,279
大家好

2
00:00:03,279 --> 00:00:05,540
今天是7月3号星期五

3
00:00:05,540 --> 00:00:07,689
我们继续分析美股

4
00:00:07,689 --> 00:00:10,489
本期内容包括对基本面的跟进

5
00:00:10,489 --> 00:00:14,329
随后分析大盘指数和热门股票

6
00:00:15,939 --> 00:00:18,239
高预期与高成本

7
00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:22,179
每股盈利面临双重考验

8
00:00:23,300 --> 00:00:25,730
盈利预期急速飙升

9
00:00:25,730 --> 00:00:29,449
受美国经济韧性与人工智能产业

10
00:00:29,449 --> 00:00:31,870
蓬勃发展的双重驱动

11
00:00:31,870 --> 00:00:34,770
华尔街对企业盈利增长的预期

12
00:00:34,770 --> 00:00:39,460
正以疫情后复苏阶段以来最快速度上调

13
00:00:39,460 --> 00:00:40,759
分析师预测

14
00:00:40,759 --> 00:00:42,740
标普500成份企业

15
00:00:42,740 --> 00:00:45,979
明年盈利将大涨25%

16
00:00:45,979 --> 00:00:48,700
半年内上调近20%

17
00:00:48,700 --> 00:00:54,020
泡沫担忧逐渐积聚在二季度财报季前夕

18
00:00:54,020 --> 00:00:59,420
投资者对预期上调过快心生疑虑忧虑

19
00:00:59,420 --> 00:01:02,869
市场担心AI企业成本攀升

20
00:01:02,869 --> 00:01:08,790
技术需求下滑或高额投入难以转化为实际利润

21
00:01:08,790 --> 00:01:13,430
这些隐患可能导致企业最终盈利不及预期

22
00:01:13,430 --> 00:01:16,230
风险正在积聚

23
00:01:18,140 --> 00:01:21,189
AI产业链面临临界点

24
00:01:21,189 --> 00:01:22,750
算力需求激增

25
00:01:22,750 --> 00:01:26,950
推高了芯片与云厂商的盈利预期

26
00:01:26,950 --> 00:01:29,129
但分析师警示

27
00:01:29,129 --> 00:01:32,310
AI相关股票或赢临界点

28
00:01:32,310 --> 00:01:34,950
当前股价已充分定价

29
00:01:34,950 --> 00:01:37,129
长期超额利润

30
00:01:37,129 --> 00:01:41,890
若企业盈利预期与资本开支假设难以为继

31
00:01:41,890 --> 00:01:46,359
估值回调可能引发全股市普跌

32
00:01:46,879 --> 00:01:49,659
估值倍数提供缓冲

33
00:01:49,659 --> 00:01:52,400
尽管美股频创新高

34
00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:55,159
但盈利预期的快速上调

35
00:01:55,159 --> 00:01:58,659
压制了股市估值上行空间

36
00:01:58,659 --> 00:02:01,840
当前每股动态市盈率约20倍

37
00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:06,659
显著低于历史反弹阶段及互联网泡沫峰值

38
00:02:06,659 --> 00:02:08,240
这在一定程度上

39
00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:13,379
缓解了部分投资者对市场滋生泡沫的担忧

40
00:02:15,139 --> 00:02:20,979
融资热潮浮现警示除盈利预期上调过快外

41
00:02:20,979 --> 00:02:24,740
金融市场还浮现其他潜在警示信号

42
00:02:24,740 --> 00:02:28,740
企业扎堆发股发债成为典型现象

43
00:02:28,740 --> 00:02:31,990
例如SPACEX计划开展史上

44
00:02:31,990 --> 00:02:35,069
规模空前的首次公开募股

45
00:02:35,069 --> 00:02:39,419
以及市场上出现巨额债券融资交易

46
00:02:39,419 --> 00:02:41,759
借贷成本预期转变

47
00:02:41,759 --> 00:02:44,259
企业盈利还面临借贷成本

48
00:02:44,259 --> 00:02:47,039
定价预期转变的挑战

49
00:02:47,039 --> 00:02:48,120
交易员预计

50
00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,699
年底美国利率至少上调25个基点

51
00:02:51,699 --> 00:02:54,840
而年初市场还压住降息

52
00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,199
在利率上行预期下

53
00:02:57,199 --> 00:03:03,199
当前企业盈利的安全缓冲空间已经极小

54
00:03:05,060 --> 00:03:08,020
meta内部大会坦白局

55
00:03:08,020 --> 00:03:13,490
裁员重组与AI滞后的双重困境

56
00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:16,539
内部会议坦白重组问题

57
00:03:16,539 --> 00:03:19,340
媒体获取的内部录音显示

58
00:03:19,340 --> 00:03:24,979
meta首席执行官扎克伯格在周四的全员沟通会上

59
00:03:24,979 --> 00:03:26,520
罕见地承认了

60
00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:30,159
公司大规模架构重组存在诸多问题

61
00:03:30,159 --> 00:03:31,199
他直言

62
00:03:31,199 --> 00:03:33,360
旗下AI智能代理

63
00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:38,439
相关系统的研发推进速度并未达到自身的预期

64
00:03:38,759 --> 00:03:41,569
裁员重组执行不够顺畅

65
00:03:41,569 --> 00:03:43,349
扎克伯格补充称

66
00:03:43,349 --> 00:03:46,909
本次包含大规模裁员在内的企业重组

67
00:03:46,909 --> 00:03:50,009
流程推进的不够顺畅

68
00:03:50,569 --> 00:03:51,909
他坦诚

69
00:03:51,909 --> 00:03:56,409
管理层此前对改革落地的时间节点出现了误判

70
00:03:56,409 --> 00:04:00,110
导致这场涉及面极广的组织架构调整

71
00:04:00,110 --> 00:04:04,689
未能达到最初设想的干净利落的效果

72
00:04:05,590 --> 00:04:08,050
战略方向并未根本改变

73
00:04:08,050 --> 00:04:10,430
尽管重组存在瑕疵

74
00:04:10,430 --> 00:04:14,610
但meta并未从根本上转变整体战略方向

75
00:04:14,610 --> 00:04:16,029
今年早些时候

76
00:04:16,029 --> 00:04:19,850
扎克伯格与其他高管一直在适度调整

77
00:04:19,850 --> 00:04:22,639
部分组织改革措举措

78
00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:26,300
试图在纠正执行偏差的同时

79
00:04:26,300 --> 00:04:31,230
继续坚定不移地推进公司的AI转型步伐

80
00:04:31,430 --> 00:04:34,430
大规模裁员引发士气波动

81
00:04:34,430 --> 00:04:35,569
今年5月

82
00:04:35,569 --> 00:04:39,290
meta裁撤了全球约10%的员工

83
00:04:39,290 --> 00:04:45,449
并将约7000名员工调岗至人工智能专项团队

84
00:04:45,449 --> 00:04:49,769
这一旨在为高成本AI基础设施建设

85
00:04:49,769 --> 00:04:53,329
腾出资金的核心重组举措

86
00:04:53,329 --> 00:04:56,089
引发了部分员工的强烈不满

87
00:04:56,089 --> 00:05:00,850
并对团队整体士气造成了负面影响

88
00:05:01,639 --> 00:05:03,500
承诺不再全面裁员

89
00:05:03,500 --> 00:05:04,639
但存疑

90
00:05:04,639 --> 00:05:06,740
为了安抚内部情绪

91
00:05:06,740 --> 00:05:10,540
扎克伯格曾在5月向员工明确表态

92
00:05:10,540 --> 00:05:14,230
今年不会再开展全公司范围的裁员

93
00:05:14,230 --> 00:05:17,009
然而面对此前剧烈的人事动荡

94
00:05:17,009 --> 00:05:20,379
不少员工对这一承诺依然心存疑虑

95
00:05:20,379 --> 00:05:25,319
内部对后续组织稳定性的担忧情绪依然存在

96
00:05:25,319 --> 00:05:28,639
压铸新架构尚未见到成效

97
00:05:28,639 --> 00:05:30,040
扎克伯格表示

98
00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:31,420
事后复盘来看

99
00:05:31,420 --> 00:05:35,040
公司基于全新组织架构做出的布局

100
00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:38,930
压注目前尚未见到成效

101
00:05:38,930 --> 00:05:41,509
为了支撑高昂的AI投入

102
00:05:41,509 --> 00:05:43,610
并借助AI赋能办公

103
00:05:43,610 --> 00:05:45,658
以提升运营效率

104
00:05:45,658 --> 00:05:48,278
公司付出了巨大的人力代价

105
00:05:48,278 --> 00:05:52,978
但巩固竞争优势的预期目标尚未实现

106
00:05:54,379 --> 00:05:58,459
特斯拉狂揽韩国三成进口车市场

107
00:05:59,689 --> 00:06:02,610
特斯拉登顶韩国进口车榜首

108
00:06:02,610 --> 00:06:04,490
行业最新数据显示

109
00:06:04,490 --> 00:06:07,149
特斯拉今年上半年强势登顶

110
00:06:07,149 --> 00:06:10,918
成为韩国最畅销的进口乘用车品牌

111
00:06:10,918 --> 00:06:13,668
在整体进口车市场中

112
00:06:13,668 --> 00:06:15,249
特斯拉以绝对优势

113
00:06:15,249 --> 00:06:19,129
占据了高达30.5%的市场份额

114
00:06:19,129 --> 00:06:22,209
彻底改写了该市场的竞争格局

115
00:06:22,209 --> 00:06:25,240
进口车市场整体强劲增长

116
00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:29,420
据韩国汽车进口商和分销商协会统计

117
00:06:29,420 --> 00:06:30,740
今年上半年

118
00:06:30,740 --> 00:06:35,560
韩国新注册的进口乘用车总数

119
00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:37,439
达到18.4万辆

120
00:06:37,439 --> 00:06:40,658
同比大幅增长33.2%

121
00:06:40,658 --> 00:06:42,399
其中仅6月份

122
00:06:42,399 --> 00:06:46,870
单月的新注册量就高达3万8059辆

123
00:06:46,870 --> 00:06:49,290
同比增长27.5%

124
00:06:49,290 --> 00:06:52,269
展现出旺盛的市场活力

125
00:06:53,350 --> 00:06:56,079
特斯拉销量份额实现狂飙

126
00:06:56,079 --> 00:07:00,439
特斯拉上半年在韩国累计售出5万6000

127
00:07:00,439 --> 00:07:02,379
139辆新车

128
00:07:02,379 --> 00:07:05,279
销量同比猛增192%

129
00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:09,250
其市场份额从去年同期的13.9%

130
00:07:09,250 --> 00:07:11,610
飙升至30.5%

131
00:07:11,610 --> 00:07:13,658
实现了跨越式增长

132
00:07:13,658 --> 00:07:15,199
这一惊人的增速

133
00:07:15,199 --> 00:07:21,110
使其成功超越了长期霸榜的德国豪华品牌

134
00:07:21,110 --> 00:07:24,350
德系豪华品牌份额显著下滑

135
00:07:24,350 --> 00:07:27,288
在特斯拉的强势冲击下

136
00:07:27,288 --> 00:07:31,408
传统德系豪华品牌市场份额明显萎缩

137
00:07:31,408 --> 00:07:35,220
宝马以21.3%的份额位居第二

138
00:07:35,220 --> 00:07:39,300
梅赛德斯奔驰以16.2%紧随其后

139
00:07:39,300 --> 00:07:42,720
这两个昔日巨头品牌的市场份额

140
00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:48,500
均较上年同期大幅下降了超过五个百分点

141
00:07:49,100 --> 00:07:51,879
中国车企比亚迪跻身前列

142
00:07:51,879 --> 00:07:54,949
中国电动汽车制造商比亚迪

143
00:07:54,949 --> 00:07:57,269
在韩国市场表现亮眼

144
00:07:57,269 --> 00:08:01,649
以六十百%分之6.3的市场份额

145
00:08:01,649 --> 00:08:03,538
成功位列第四

146
00:08:03,538 --> 00:08:07,519
在6月份的最畅销进口车型榜单中

147
00:08:07,519 --> 00:08:08,839
比亚迪海豚

148
00:08:08,839 --> 00:08:12,699
以2747辆的销量位居第三

149
00:08:12,699 --> 00:08:16,860
展现出中国新能源车企的强劲竞争力

150
00:08:17,420 --> 00:08:20,610
model y成最热销进口车型

151
00:08:20,610 --> 00:08:24,550
特斯拉model y系列成为韩国市场的绝对主力

152
00:08:24,550 --> 00:08:25,430
6月份

153
00:08:25,430 --> 00:08:29,959
model y长续航版以5155辆的销量

154
00:08:29,959 --> 00:08:33,318
成为当月最畅销的进口车型

155
00:08:33,318 --> 00:08:38,590
其premium长续航版也售出3318辆

156
00:08:38,590 --> 00:08:44,359
这主要得益于市场对电动汽车的强劲需求好

157
00:08:44,359 --> 00:08:45,599
我们看一下股指期货

158
00:08:45,599 --> 00:08:47,719
今天所谓盘前的表现

159
00:08:47,719 --> 00:08:49,418
那么今天美股是休市哈

160
00:08:49,418 --> 00:08:52,909
但是我们的外汇期货市场都在波动哈

161
00:08:52,909 --> 00:08:54,429
估计也会提前休市啊

162
00:08:54,429 --> 00:08:57,480
我们看一下今天确实有所波动

163
00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,700
我们看到所谓的亚洲欧洲时段的市场啊

164
00:09:00,700 --> 00:09:01,818
有所反弹

165
00:09:01,818 --> 00:09:05,019
还一扫昨日下跌的这个阴霾哈

166
00:09:05,019 --> 00:09:07,109
你看又有做反弹是吧

167
00:09:07,109 --> 00:09:08,908
上涨了1%左右哈

168
00:09:08,908 --> 00:09:11,408
不过呢估计很快就要修饰了哈

169
00:09:11,408 --> 00:09:14,068
我们看一下5分钟图表

170
00:09:16,019 --> 00:09:18,539
我们昨天在盘后复盘的时候说

171
00:09:18,539 --> 00:09:22,419
让大家观察中间这个支撑区它的有效性

172
00:09:22,419 --> 00:09:24,639
就是说下跌顺线突破

173
00:09:24,639 --> 00:09:26,120
回踩止跌的有效性

174
00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:28,019
唉确实有点止跌迹象了

175
00:09:28,019 --> 00:09:31,679
我看到这里啊比较强劲的一个卫星反转是吧

176
00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:37,610
视觉感觉还可以说这个假期反弹有效吗

177
00:09:38,039 --> 00:09:38,860
不知道哈

178
00:09:38,860 --> 00:09:40,220
应该有点效吧

179
00:09:40,220 --> 00:09:41,360
那如果没效的话

180
00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:42,419
他为什么不跌呢

181
00:09:42,419 --> 00:09:43,809
呵对吧

182
00:09:43,809 --> 00:09:45,570
他也可以选择卖呀

183
00:09:45,570 --> 00:09:47,690
当然哈也要看下周哈

184
00:09:47,690 --> 00:09:48,490
开盘之后啊

185
00:09:48,490 --> 00:09:50,429
股指期货这个表现对吧

186
00:09:50,429 --> 00:09:53,688
嗯好我们看一下啊

187
00:09:53,688 --> 00:09:54,849
再看一下日线

188
00:09:54,849 --> 00:09:55,869
那这样的话

189
00:09:55,869 --> 00:09:59,589
很多人啊休假过程中看到这里有所反弹

190
00:09:59,589 --> 00:10:02,570
大概呢心里边会舒服一点

191
00:10:02,570 --> 00:10:03,009
是吧

192
00:10:03,009 --> 00:10:04,929
毕竟给你反弹起来了哈

193
00:10:04,929 --> 00:10:06,970
对不对嗯

194
00:10:08,100 --> 00:10:09,559
好我们看一下罗素

195
00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:11,360
罗素也是有缩小的反弹哈

196
00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:12,799
这片就不用理睬

197
00:10:12,799 --> 00:10:13,960
也没有大阳线

198
00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:15,059
也没有大阴线啊

199
00:10:15,059 --> 00:10:16,440
趋势线还是有效的

200
00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:18,720
上涨趋势线有效

201
00:10:19,759 --> 00:10:22,360
道指也是道指昨天表现最佳哈

202
00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:23,440
昨天大阳线

203
00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:27,750
今天到欧洲早些时段还是反弹好

204
00:10:29,190 --> 00:10:30,710
标普整体而言也是哈

205
00:10:30,710 --> 00:10:32,750
标普昨天的阴线就不强啊

206
00:10:32,750 --> 00:10:34,720
他是个十字星K线完了

207
00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:37,419
今天到欧洲早些时段还是一个阳线哈

208
00:10:37,419 --> 00:10:38,639
又给了个阳线

209
00:10:38,639 --> 00:10:41,669
表明市场整体走熊的概率在降低哈

210
00:10:41,669 --> 00:10:43,389
只不过只不过什么

211
00:10:43,389 --> 00:10:47,450
只不过科技股内部走势分化较为严重哈

212
00:10:47,450 --> 00:10:49,370
有的要开始回调

213
00:10:49,370 --> 00:10:51,610
有的要开始反弹

214
00:10:51,610 --> 00:10:54,250
不断的轮动哈

215
00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:56,940
这是这几个股指

216
00:10:56,940 --> 00:10:58,909
我们看一下黄金

217
00:10:59,309 --> 00:11:01,590
黄金由于昨天的日线过于强势啊

218
00:11:01,590 --> 00:11:03,669
我们说多头有可能继续反弹

219
00:11:03,669 --> 00:11:05,909
我看到今天到欧洲早期时段唉

220
00:11:05,909 --> 00:11:07,710
给出了一根阳线的感觉

221
00:11:07,710 --> 00:11:11,129
看一下5分钟图片嗯

222
00:11:11,129 --> 00:11:13,110
我说你要是做多的话

223
00:11:13,110 --> 00:11:14,389
你止损放在这是吧

224
00:11:14,389 --> 00:11:15,539
哎昨天盘后

225
00:11:15,539 --> 00:11:16,980
昨天美股收盘之后

226
00:11:16,980 --> 00:11:17,659
我们说哈

227
00:11:17,659 --> 00:11:20,980
哎你看今天亚洲时段就弄起来了

228
00:11:20,980 --> 00:11:23,340
那么现在呢有点回调

229
00:11:24,149 --> 00:11:26,389
现在呢应该画好局部趋势线哈

230
00:11:26,389 --> 00:11:27,549
我们用直线吧

231
00:11:27,549 --> 00:11:30,029
因为越往后边越长

232
00:11:30,029 --> 00:11:31,350
这个线

233
00:11:33,169 --> 00:11:33,809
对吧

234
00:11:33,809 --> 00:11:34,889
你要是做多的话

235
00:11:34,889 --> 00:11:37,129
还是以这根趋势线为确切跟进是吧

236
00:11:37,129 --> 00:11:39,549
同时也要关注我们日线级别的那个

237
00:11:39,549 --> 00:11:41,610
我们再看一下日线哈

238
00:11:42,509 --> 00:11:44,269
关注下日线这一节空间啊

239
00:11:44,269 --> 00:11:45,830
大概到4310带

240
00:11:45,830 --> 00:11:47,629
可能会遇到重要的阻力位啊

241
00:11:47,629 --> 00:11:51,409
也就是说这根长的下跌车线构成重要的阻力

242
00:11:51,409 --> 00:11:56,029
好好这个是谁呀

243
00:11:56,029 --> 00:11:57,720
黄金

244
00:11:59,019 --> 00:12:01,279
好那我们看一些热门的标的咯

245
00:12:01,279 --> 00:12:03,139
嗯可以

246
00:12:03,740 --> 00:12:06,679
你看我们这个SOXL

247
00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:10,320
你要说下周开盘之后有所反弹

248
00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:10,840
可以吗

249
00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:11,580
可以啊

250
00:12:11,580 --> 00:12:12,539
因为什么呢

251
00:12:12,539 --> 00:12:14,720
因为趋势线刚被破位嘛是吧

252
00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:15,659
周四这一天

253
00:12:15,659 --> 00:12:19,210
刚刚把这个我们近期典型的趋势线破一下啊

254
00:12:19,210 --> 00:12:23,799
啊如果你是画这个这个斜形的通道线的话

255
00:12:23,799 --> 00:12:25,940
它实际上刚刚被破位对吧

256
00:12:25,940 --> 00:12:27,480
你把这趋势线拿走

257
00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:29,120
如果你画陡峭趋势线的话

258
00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:32,299
实际上最高点对应的这个点位应该是在这哈

259
00:12:32,299 --> 00:12:33,779
他其实早就破了

260
00:12:33,779 --> 00:12:36,659
我记得我们之前画标普和纳指的这个趋势线

261
00:12:36,659 --> 00:12:38,370
就画两条来着是吧

262
00:12:38,370 --> 00:12:40,429
嗯平缓一点的就是这一条哈

263
00:12:40,429 --> 00:12:44,269
就是这个通道这个通道呢实际上是被破位了哈

264
00:12:44,269 --> 00:12:45,490
被破位了吧

265
00:12:45,490 --> 00:12:47,990
嗯所以啊大家要注意哈

266
00:12:47,990 --> 00:12:53,129
呃下周我们要观察它是小反弹还是大反弹

267
00:12:53,129 --> 00:12:54,450
如果是大反弹的话

268
00:12:54,450 --> 00:12:55,409
基本上震荡

269
00:12:55,409 --> 00:12:57,818
如果是反弹力度不足

270
00:12:58,178 --> 00:13:00,938
那么近期进一步下跌的概率就高哈

271
00:13:00,938 --> 00:13:02,259
也就是说你看这图

272
00:13:02,259 --> 00:13:03,239
这图怎么了

273
00:13:03,239 --> 00:13:04,658
最高是302哈

274
00:13:04,658 --> 00:13:06,899
现在已经跌到了181

275
00:13:07,139 --> 00:13:08,980
有人说这控制空间看着小

276
00:13:08,980 --> 00:13:10,700
但实际上幅度非常大啊

277
00:13:10,700 --> 00:13:12,639
已经跌了40%左右

278
00:13:12,639 --> 00:13:13,659
如果再往下跌

279
00:13:13,659 --> 00:13:15,279
就百分之跌50%

280
00:13:15,279 --> 00:13:17,500
所以有些图啊看起来很猛啊

281
00:13:17,500 --> 00:13:19,500
但实际上回调更猛

282
00:13:20,350 --> 00:13:22,070
嗯所以我们不能说啊

283
00:13:22,070 --> 00:13:22,909
那没事啊

284
00:13:22,909 --> 00:13:23,230
没事啊

285
00:13:23,230 --> 00:13:25,850
但实际上你会看到这个他的浮亏

286
00:13:25,850 --> 00:13:27,609
非常的明显是吧

287
00:13:27,609 --> 00:13:29,208
包括这个相关的标的哈

288
00:13:29,208 --> 00:13:32,419
半导体行业指数ETF什么的

289
00:13:32,419 --> 00:13:36,818
那我们啊一定要研究清楚它的数字哈

290
00:13:37,219 --> 00:13:38,818
而不是简简单单就看啊

291
00:13:38,818 --> 00:13:39,259
他没事啊

292
00:13:39,259 --> 00:13:40,139
就这么窄幅震荡

293
00:13:40,139 --> 00:13:41,859
实际上只有50%的回调了

294
00:13:41,859 --> 00:13:46,960
已经再往下跌一点的话对吧好

295
00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:48,840
那我们就挨个看吧

296
00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:51,200
闪迪你看他也是啊

297
00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:53,200
他其实有一些破位的迹象来着

298
00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:53,860
在周三啊

299
00:13:53,860 --> 00:13:56,379
周四只不过更明显啊

300
00:13:56,779 --> 00:13:59,980
因为周三他多少对应的也是这个小通道对吧

301
00:13:59,980 --> 00:14:03,679
跟我们那个XXO跟上面那个是一样的哈

302
00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:05,440
诶这样一个这样一个破位

303
00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:08,279
他至少要走要走一个横盘震荡哈

304
00:14:08,279 --> 00:14:09,159
稍微悲观一点

305
00:14:09,159 --> 00:14:11,169
稍微给一点回车再震荡

306
00:14:11,169 --> 00:14:13,169
我觉得会更符合中性预期

307
00:14:13,169 --> 00:14:15,450
否则你好不容易破掉趋势线了

308
00:14:15,450 --> 00:14:16,289
你又弄回去

309
00:14:16,289 --> 00:14:17,809
要窄幅震荡

310
00:14:18,299 --> 00:14:19,820
那也太强势了吧

311
00:14:19,820 --> 00:14:21,899
所以说会不会那样呢

312
00:14:21,899 --> 00:14:23,820
我觉得概率应该是在降低了哈

313
00:14:23,820 --> 00:14:26,039
所以多头应该适当降低一点预期哈

314
00:14:26,039 --> 00:14:29,080
不要一直都是说陡峭的拉绳啊

315
00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:31,379
会跳非常浅那种啊

316
00:14:31,379 --> 00:14:33,360
一般不会那么浅

317
00:14:33,539 --> 00:14:35,059
嗯就是说越往上哈

318
00:14:35,059 --> 00:14:38,320
这个我们预期回调的深度要增加一点是吧

319
00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:41,068
所以不能一直信仰常吃啊

320
00:14:41,068 --> 00:14:42,589
你看他这波跌了多少

321
00:14:42,589 --> 00:14:43,549
来

322
00:14:43,909 --> 00:14:45,309
跌了26%了啊

323
00:14:45,309 --> 00:14:46,110
25了

324
00:14:46,110 --> 00:14:47,669
2354

325
00:14:47,669 --> 00:14:50,049
跌到了1745

326
00:14:50,049 --> 00:14:51,470
这跌了六七百块钱

327
00:14:51,470 --> 00:14:54,779
我多少钱都跌了将近600块钱是吧

328
00:14:56,059 --> 00:14:57,529
不少了

329
00:14:57,769 --> 00:14:59,750
我们看一下它的5分钟图表

330
00:14:59,750 --> 00:15:01,789
其实5分钟图表空头还是挺强的

331
00:15:01,789 --> 00:15:03,429
直线下跌啊

332
00:15:03,429 --> 00:15:05,149
尾盘呢微微有点小翘尾哈

333
00:15:05,149 --> 00:15:06,690
有点小反弹是吧

334
00:15:06,690 --> 00:15:09,590
嗯反弹力度相对于这个大波段来说

335
00:15:09,590 --> 00:15:12,629
还是比较弱势的好

336
00:15:12,629 --> 00:15:14,970
特别是日线K线非常强势哈

337
00:15:14,970 --> 00:15:17,129
所以下周一旦是天空高开

338
00:15:17,129 --> 00:15:19,120
看看会不会继续往下砸一下

339
00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:21,279
因为这根K线还没有消耗掉

340
00:15:21,279 --> 00:15:24,679
就是这根K线传递的空投的强度啊

341
00:15:24,679 --> 00:15:27,000
还没有被消耗完毕哈

342
00:15:27,159 --> 00:15:28,240
是不是啊

343
00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:30,580
一般情况下ABC一下往下再C

344
00:15:30,580 --> 00:15:33,320
现在是属于A这种感觉哈

345
00:15:34,029 --> 00:15:37,250
我们看另外一个IREN这个图

346
00:15:37,250 --> 00:15:41,110
这个图我们之前画了趋势线好

347
00:15:41,629 --> 00:15:44,350
那么市场呢这里走了一个楔形之后啊

348
00:15:44,350 --> 00:15:46,309
选择往上二次探底失败啊

349
00:15:46,309 --> 00:15:48,840
出现大阴线这片啊

350
00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:51,019
理论上我们的趋势线可以更陡峭一点

351
00:15:51,019 --> 00:15:53,220
这根阴线其实就是卖点

352
00:15:53,220 --> 00:15:55,899
减仓点继续强势破掉这个低点的时候

353
00:15:55,899 --> 00:15:57,279
无论如何都得卖掉

354
00:15:57,279 --> 00:16:00,328
因为他已经告别了强趋势行情啊

355
00:16:00,328 --> 00:16:02,328
那么能不能维持在高位震荡呢

356
00:16:02,328 --> 00:16:03,269
都两说哈

357
00:16:03,269 --> 00:16:04,808
因为有一部分多头认为

358
00:16:04,808 --> 00:16:06,929
它其实是二次探顶的一个架构

359
00:16:06,929 --> 00:16:09,549
因为你按照这个陡峭的趋势下去画的话

360
00:16:09,549 --> 00:16:11,909
实际上二次探顶探不上去

361
00:16:11,909 --> 00:16:13,309
再探还是探不上去

362
00:16:13,309 --> 00:16:14,129
所谓探不上去

363
00:16:14,129 --> 00:16:15,919
就是说创新高的有点费力

364
00:16:15,919 --> 00:16:18,159
如果创新高不费力

365
00:16:18,159 --> 00:16:19,340
也有可能会失败

366
00:16:19,340 --> 00:16:21,279
因为还有头肩顶形态对吧

367
00:16:21,279 --> 00:16:23,789
所以这是一个微型水

368
00:16:23,789 --> 00:16:24,950
这不叫微型刷

369
00:16:24,950 --> 00:16:26,049
这是一个双顶哈

370
00:16:26,049 --> 00:16:28,339
下来一下这个反弹

371
00:16:28,339 --> 00:16:31,719
所谓的相对这边来的一个二次探顶又失败了哈

372
00:16:31,719 --> 00:16:32,538
上不去啊

373
00:16:32,538 --> 00:16:33,720
变成了顶

374
00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:35,940
但是呢市场仍没有完全放弃

375
00:16:35,940 --> 00:16:36,759
再掉下来一次

376
00:16:36,759 --> 00:16:38,259
没有有效跌破支撑区

377
00:16:38,259 --> 00:16:39,929
再反弹起来

378
00:16:40,169 --> 00:16:41,809
发现还是无法传奇高啊

379
00:16:41,809 --> 00:16:45,289
那这个时候我们在局部上可以画趋势线

380
00:16:45,289 --> 00:16:46,169
也可以画通道线

381
00:16:46,169 --> 00:16:48,889
实际上就可以找到这个这儿的二次探顶

382
00:16:48,889 --> 00:16:51,000
卖掉对吧

383
00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,019
那么他至少是宽幅震荡的

384
00:16:53,019 --> 00:16:54,559
悲观的话往下砸

385
00:16:54,559 --> 00:16:58,919
是不是我们看到这些空头排列还是非常强势

386
00:16:58,919 --> 00:17:01,220
期间的阳线非常的弱势哈

387
00:17:01,220 --> 00:17:03,480
问这里边有阳线吗

388
00:17:03,899 --> 00:17:04,460
有人说

389
00:17:04,460 --> 00:17:06,839
那你这么一问还真得仔细看一下

390
00:17:06,839 --> 00:17:11,618
嗯啊我们假设啊从这儿开始数有几根阳线呢

391
00:17:11,618 --> 00:17:13,479
只有一根儿谁呀

392
00:17:13,479 --> 00:17:17,220
这这片儿别看这红色的哈

393
00:17:17,220 --> 00:17:18,680
这红色的是唯一的阳线

394
00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:20,759
收盘价比这个收盘价高

395
00:17:20,759 --> 00:17:21,559
除此之外

396
00:17:21,559 --> 00:17:23,680
阴线是阴线

397
00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:25,059
这绿的也是阴线哈

398
00:17:25,059 --> 00:17:27,039
阴线阴线又是阴线

399
00:17:27,039 --> 00:17:27,759
又是阴线

400
00:17:27,759 --> 00:17:29,819
十字星还是阴线是吧

401
00:17:29,819 --> 00:17:31,400
收盘价比这要低啊

402
00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:34,138
阴线阴线这是连跌啊

403
00:17:34,459 --> 00:17:35,219
看到了吧

404
00:17:35,219 --> 00:17:36,578
空头极为强势啊

405
00:17:36,578 --> 00:17:39,720
所以多头啊画好下跌顺线之后啊

406
00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:40,759
要极为谨慎哈

407
00:17:40,759 --> 00:17:42,799
因为这个支撑区再次被测试到

408
00:17:42,799 --> 00:17:44,359
能不能强劲的反弹

409
00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:46,388
要打个大大的问号

410
00:17:46,388 --> 00:17:48,449
万一它暴跌了呢对吧

411
00:17:48,449 --> 00:17:50,548
就变成了一个多重顶哈

412
00:17:50,548 --> 00:17:53,750
然后掉下来可以那么深吗

413
00:17:53,750 --> 00:17:56,400
大家看左侧可以哈

414
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:57,920
也可以不那样哈

415
00:17:57,920 --> 00:17:59,799
但是这里必须得有像这样哈

416
00:17:59,799 --> 00:18:01,319
止跌止跌再止跌

417
00:18:01,319 --> 00:18:03,019
三重底哈啊

418
00:18:03,019 --> 00:18:05,599
或者双底加PULBACK之地对吧

419
00:18:05,599 --> 00:18:08,380
所以啊这一浪空头非常强势哈

420
00:18:08,380 --> 00:18:11,259
要看这里强劲止跌的迹象才行

421
00:18:12,210 --> 00:18:14,309
我们看一下麦威尔哎

422
00:18:14,309 --> 00:18:16,329
迈威尔就是说我们说了啊

423
00:18:16,329 --> 00:18:20,799
我们近期让大家叮嘱关注这几个热门龙头哈

424
00:18:20,799 --> 00:18:23,450
这个MRVL是吧

425
00:18:23,450 --> 00:18:25,349
周三周四暴跌啊

426
00:18:25,349 --> 00:18:27,289
那这样的话周一如果反弹无利

427
00:18:27,289 --> 00:18:28,869
下周一周二反弹无力

428
00:18:28,869 --> 00:18:30,470
那有可能形成一个顶部

429
00:18:30,470 --> 00:18:31,880
继续震荡下行

430
00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:33,539
给出稍微深一点的回调

431
00:18:33,539 --> 00:18:35,699
大家可以参考这个形态是吧

432
00:18:35,699 --> 00:18:36,878
过程中老是反弹

433
00:18:36,878 --> 00:18:39,638
但是这片都只能当做震荡行情来看

434
00:18:39,638 --> 00:18:40,638
一旦破掉

435
00:18:40,638 --> 00:18:43,910
连续破破就有可能有大回调啊

436
00:18:43,910 --> 00:18:45,490
有这回调都没事的

437
00:18:45,490 --> 00:18:48,500
唉这回调了60%多哈

438
00:18:48,500 --> 00:18:49,339
这一波

439
00:18:49,339 --> 00:18:51,700
那我看当前这一波长得更陡峭哈

440
00:18:51,700 --> 00:18:54,579
我们说直勾勾的运动经过反转形态之后

441
00:18:54,579 --> 00:18:57,380
也可以双向直勾勾的运动

442
00:18:57,819 --> 00:19:00,559
要提防有人说真难做啊

443
00:19:00,559 --> 00:19:06,430
嗯这个老黄黄仁勋说的这个万亿市值现在多少

444
00:19:06,430 --> 00:19:08,740
市值2100啊

445
00:19:08,740 --> 00:19:11,400
不到2100亿哈

446
00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:12,900
到万一还早呢

447
00:19:12,900 --> 00:19:15,380
所以说不能完全听他们说话啊

448
00:19:15,380 --> 00:19:17,400
听一听罢了对吧

449
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:20,339
我们要知道他在干扰这个市场

450
00:19:20,549 --> 00:19:20,990
同时

451
00:19:20,990 --> 00:19:22,190
我们要结合技术面形态

452
00:19:22,190 --> 00:19:24,769
来判断我们的这个风险是吧

453
00:19:24,769 --> 00:19:26,069
那如果继续震荡下行

454
00:19:26,069 --> 00:19:26,829
什么万亿啊

455
00:19:26,829 --> 00:19:30,069
先回来先回到1000亿吧是吧

456
00:19:30,069 --> 00:19:31,069
再腰斩一下

457
00:19:31,069 --> 00:19:33,109
你看现在已经跌了25%左右哈

458
00:19:33,109 --> 00:19:34,490
稍微再跌一点哈

459
00:19:34,490 --> 00:19:36,609
跌到150再跌100块

460
00:19:36,609 --> 00:19:38,069
这个咱就不去猜了哈

461
00:19:38,069 --> 00:19:42,049
他这没有没有确定的数字哈

462
00:19:42,500 --> 00:19:45,900
我们看一下特斯拉啊

463
00:19:45,900 --> 00:19:48,519
特斯拉的走势其实交易难度极大啊

464
00:19:48,519 --> 00:19:51,359
有人说他就一直信仰长持的

465
00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:53,420
实际上是很难的哈

466
00:19:53,420 --> 00:19:56,079
啊因为过程中的回调相当的深哈

467
00:19:56,079 --> 00:19:58,859
这篇就是75%的回调

468
00:19:58,859 --> 00:20:01,619
这片呢这片是大选前后啊

469
00:20:01,619 --> 00:20:05,440
马斯克和特朗普的恩恩怨情仇导致的

470
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:08,490
随后呢他们俩割席之后哈

471
00:20:08,490 --> 00:20:09,869
市场就有所反弹

472
00:20:09,869 --> 00:20:12,549
同时有这个AI相关的概念是吧

473
00:20:12,549 --> 00:20:15,309
哎那近期呢又给个大回调唉

474
00:20:15,309 --> 00:20:16,509
然后又震荡了

475
00:20:16,509 --> 00:20:19,199
开始我们看到空头一点不弱势哈

476
00:20:19,199 --> 00:20:21,538
周四这根阴线空头一点不弱势

477
00:20:21,538 --> 00:20:24,078
这样的话我们初步的中性预期是在这里

478
00:20:24,078 --> 00:20:25,058
无需震荡啊

479
00:20:25,058 --> 00:20:26,239
这些线条先删掉

480
00:20:26,239 --> 00:20:28,130
是无序震荡概率高一点

481
00:20:28,130 --> 00:20:29,329
既然是震荡的话

482
00:20:29,329 --> 00:20:31,930
多头空头都应该找到一个可能的支撑

483
00:20:31,930 --> 00:20:32,950
或阻力区啊

484
00:20:32,950 --> 00:20:33,950
去观察

485
00:20:33,950 --> 00:20:36,970
比如说这个位置就有可能是临界位置对吧

486
00:20:36,970 --> 00:20:38,569
把下跌给删掉

487
00:20:38,569 --> 00:20:40,569
上涨的也可以不先不画

488
00:20:40,569 --> 00:20:42,369
但我们的阻力区可以先画到

489
00:20:42,369 --> 00:20:43,910
这也可以调低一点

490
00:20:43,910 --> 00:20:45,410
因为这空头过于强势啊

491
00:20:45,410 --> 00:20:47,058
这个阴线嗯

492
00:20:47,058 --> 00:20:49,719
所以这片是我们东方双方博弈的焦点哈

493
00:20:49,719 --> 00:20:50,839
如果往下破

494
00:20:50,839 --> 00:20:53,619
要注意走到下一个支撑位的可能性

495
00:20:53,619 --> 00:20:55,640
大家不要小看这一根K线啊

496
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,949
一一天就跌了31块钱啊

497
00:20:57,949 --> 00:21:00,028
那么现在是393

498
00:21:00,028 --> 00:21:01,729
下边这是337哈

499
00:21:01,729 --> 00:21:03,909
这一下就跌个656十

500
00:21:03,909 --> 00:21:06,329
所以一定要注意这种风险

501
00:21:06,650 --> 00:21:08,089
有人说真挺难做的

502
00:21:10,289 --> 00:21:11,880
我看一下戴尔

503
00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:13,099
戴尔也是啊

504
00:21:13,099 --> 00:21:14,400
经过了漫长的横盘

505
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:16,380
他其实也出现了一种困境啊

506
00:21:16,380 --> 00:21:17,240
什么困境

507
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,970
他实际上无法创新高是吧

508
00:21:19,970 --> 00:21:22,470
虽然说空头暂时没有特别使劲的发力

509
00:21:22,470 --> 00:21:25,119
但是我觉得也也有点那个意思了哈

510
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:26,400
上不去掉下来

511
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:27,759
上不去掉掉

512
00:21:27,759 --> 00:21:29,000
上不去又掉

513
00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:30,599
那么如果再掉的话

514
00:21:30,599 --> 00:21:32,679
那就是真的要掉下来了

515
00:21:32,919 --> 00:21:35,638
前期涨幅巨大的都要提防着哈

516
00:21:35,638 --> 00:21:37,239
刚才我们看到啊

517
00:21:37,239 --> 00:21:40,230
说这个科技股内部也是分化的哈

518
00:21:40,230 --> 00:21:42,430
前期暴涨的要警惕大回调

519
00:21:42,430 --> 00:21:45,589
前期暴跌的要注意可能的触底啊

520
00:21:45,589 --> 00:21:47,545
市场不断的在轮动

521
00:21:48,859 --> 00:21:50,619
好我们先说这么几只吧

522
00:21:50,619 --> 00:21:52,779
这么几只都挺有代表性哈

523
00:21:52,779 --> 00:21:56,180
好最后呢欢迎大家成为会员哈

524
00:21:56,180 --> 00:21:58,200
观看我们的最新牛股分析内容

525
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,180
以及绿宝石高级会员的内容哈

526
00:22:00,180 --> 00:22:00,940
叫最热美股

527
00:22:00,940 --> 00:22:01,909
详细说

528
00:22:01,909 --> 00:22:03,888
我们下一个时段继续分析哈

529
00:22:03,888 --> 00:22:04,619
拜拜

共 1 条，按点赞数排序。

采集完成，该视频无弹幕