BV1UpTz6LEto · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:00,880 所以在这段视频中 2 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:07,519 让我们看看今年市场泡沫和崩盘的真实概率 3 00:00:16,579 --> 00:00:19,099 现在在我深入讲解视频内容之前 4 00:00:19,099 --> 00:00:23,890 请记得注册我的免费在线网络研讨会 5 00:00:23,890 --> 00:00:27,170 九天后的反泡沫狂热现象 6 00:00:27,170 --> 00:00:28,489 立即注册 7 00:00:28,489 --> 00:00:31,539 通过下方描述框中的链接 8 00:00:31,539 --> 00:00:33,299 因为在此次反泡沫狂热中 9 00:00:33,299 --> 00:00:36,969 我将具体讲解如何发现被忽视的现金 10 00:00:36,969 --> 00:00:40,310 在今日创纪录的市场中挖掘股票 11 00:00:40,310 --> 00:00:42,310 当你现在注册 12 00:00:42,310 --> 00:00:45,229 我将提供你访问我的秘密武器 13 00:00:45,229 --> 00:00:51,189 这个武器是食人鱼利润衰退与市场顶峰仪表盘 14 00:00:51,189 --> 00:00:55,579 这是一个我设计的特殊仪表盘 15 00:00:55,579 --> 00:00:58,740 我们离市场泡沫顶点有多近 16 00:00:58,740 --> 00:01:02,479 我们离即将到来的衰退有多近 17 00:01:02,479 --> 00:01:06,799 事实上我将在视频结尾演示这个仪表盘 18 00:01:06,799 --> 00:01:09,340 所以一定要看到最后这个仪表盘 19 00:01:09,340 --> 00:01:11,180 你可以看到这里有三个视角 20 00:01:11,180 --> 00:01:12,259 我首先关注第一个 21 00:01:12,259 --> 00:01:14,599 衰退风险仪表盘再次 22 00:01:14,599 --> 00:01:16,198 我们离衰退有多近 23 00:01:16,198 --> 00:01:18,189 基于这里的所有变量 24 00:01:18,189 --> 00:01:21,450 接下来是市场顶峰泡沫仪表盘 25 00:01:21,450 --> 00:01:24,049 我们离市场泡沫顶点有多近 26 00:01:24,049 --> 00:01:24,709 同样地 27 00:01:24,709 --> 00:01:26,209 这些都是我关注的众多变量 28 00:01:26,209 --> 00:01:28,500 并且每月更新 29 00:01:28,500 --> 00:01:30,219 整合所有我收集的数据 30 00:01:30,219 --> 00:01:32,599 当然第三个视角是价格趋势 31 00:01:32,599 --> 00:01:34,230 技术指标 32 00:01:34,230 --> 00:01:35,370 综合所有这些 33 00:01:35,370 --> 00:01:37,310 你将成为最先获知 34 00:01:37,310 --> 00:01:41,649 市场何时转向下一轮泡沫或衰退熊市 35 00:01:41,649 --> 00:01:44,480 股市持续创出新高 36 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:45,019 具体来说 37 00:01:45,019 --> 00:01:48,379 道琼斯指数前几天刚突破五万二千点 38 00:01:48,379 --> 00:01:48,959 帕姆在 39 00:01:48,959 --> 00:01:49,120 你 40 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:50,920 又一次感到自豪吧 41 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:53,959 专家警告或将发生灾难性崩盘 42 00:01:53,959 --> 00:01:54,879 许多专家都如此 43 00:01:54,879 --> 00:01:58,819 当然最著名的传奇投资者之一 44 00:01:58,819 --> 00:02:03,078 曾警告标普可能暴跌50%或70% 45 00:02:03,078 --> 00:02:05,459 五百点的投资者是杰里米·格兰瑟姆 46 00:02:05,459 --> 00:02:07,019 他最近频繁出现 47 00:02:07,019 --> 00:02:07,420 他曾在 48 00:02:07,420 --> 00:02:09,169 CNBC亮相 49 00:02:09,169 --> 00:02:10,750 与主播乔激烈辩论 50 00:02:10,750 --> 00:02:11,250 他说 51 00:02:11,250 --> 00:02:11,490 是的 52 00:02:11,490 --> 00:02:12,680 马克要崩溃了 53 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:14,360 比特币要归零了 54 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:15,300 就是那个部分 55 00:02:15,300 --> 00:02:16,560 我可能同意啊 56 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:17,900 他还参加了这个 57 00:02:17,900 --> 00:02:18,259 呃 58 00:02:18,259 --> 00:02:18,699 播客 59 00:02:18,699 --> 00:02:20,939 叫《CEO日记》 60 00:02:20,939 --> 00:02:23,240 我觉得现在在YouTube上非常流行 61 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:24,159 你知道的 62 00:02:24,159 --> 00:02:24,819 他说 63 00:02:24,819 --> 00:02:26,969 别持有美股 64 00:02:26,969 --> 00:02:28,050 全部卖掉 65 00:02:28,050 --> 00:02:28,370 哦 66 00:02:28,370 --> 00:02:29,349 会有痛苦 67 00:02:29,349 --> 00:02:31,949 就像布兰登在《洛奇三》里说的 68 00:02:31,949 --> 00:02:32,969 现在你他 69 00:02:32,969 --> 00:02:35,550 他显得如此坚定又充满激情 70 00:02:35,550 --> 00:02:36,539 我觉得你知道什么 71 00:02:36,539 --> 00:02:38,039 我不能忽视这点 72 00:02:38,039 --> 00:02:39,759 我要仔细看看事实 73 00:02:39,759 --> 00:02:43,770 看看这家伙到底懂不懂他在说什么 74 00:02:43,770 --> 00:02:45,870 首先我想做的就是 75 00:02:45,870 --> 00:02:49,930 我要看看他如何管理自己的对冲基金 76 00:02:49,930 --> 00:02:50,330 我意思是 77 00:02:50,330 --> 00:02:51,590 如果他说的是真的 78 00:02:51,590 --> 00:02:53,469 他应该卖掉所有股票 79 00:02:53,469 --> 00:02:54,650 转为现金 80 00:02:54,650 --> 00:02:55,069 对吧 81 00:02:55,069 --> 00:02:56,189 于是我去了Guru 82 00:02:56,189 --> 00:02:59,149 Focus查看他的最新投资组合 83 00:02:59,149 --> 00:03:01,549 以及最新的买卖记录 84 00:03:01,549 --> 00:03:02,769 我发现确实 85 00:03:02,769 --> 00:03:04,049 他在清仓 86 00:03:04,049 --> 00:03:06,530 并抛售整个美股市场 87 00:03:06,530 --> 00:03:07,870 他不再持有任何 88 00:03:07,870 --> 00:03:08,969 美股股票了 89 00:03:08,969 --> 00:03:09,629 全部清空 90 00:03:09,629 --> 00:03:10,629 我只是开玩笑 91 00:03:10,629 --> 00:03:11,169 他的持仓 92 00:03:11,169 --> 00:03:12,729 全是美股股票 93 00:03:12,729 --> 00:03:14,000 他持有微软 94 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:14,960 他持有谷歌 95 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:16,199 他持有GNY 96 00:03:16,199 --> 00:03:17,319 苹果和Meta 97 00:03:17,319 --> 00:03:18,060 但你可能会说 98 00:03:18,060 --> 00:03:19,419 也许他很久以前就买了 99 00:03:19,419 --> 00:03:22,430 他正在逐步出售美股股票 100 00:03:22,830 --> 00:03:23,310 不 101 00:03:23,310 --> 00:03:25,750 事实上他一直在大量购买 102 00:03:25,750 --> 00:03:27,770 你可以看到最后一个季度 103 00:03:27,770 --> 00:03:28,289 呃 104 00:03:28,289 --> 00:03:29,830 他买了万事达卡 105 00:03:29,830 --> 00:03:31,069 他买了Netflix 106 00:03:31,069 --> 00:03:31,770 他购买了 107 00:03:31,770 --> 00:03:32,370 呃 108 00:03:32,370 --> 00:03:33,129 剧情简介 109 00:03:33,129 --> 00:03:34,909 他买了Rutechnologies 110 00:03:34,909 --> 00:03:36,110 他大量买入了股票 111 00:03:36,110 --> 00:03:38,709 事实上他买股比我多 112 00:03:39,068 --> 00:03:39,769 杰里米 113 00:03:39,769 --> 00:03:40,549 你在做什么 114 00:03:40,549 --> 00:03:41,468 你应该说 115 00:03:41,468 --> 00:03:42,209 做空市场 116 00:03:42,209 --> 00:03:42,989 我们都要死了 117 00:03:42,989 --> 00:03:43,729 就像你说的 118 00:03:43,729 --> 00:03:44,468 你为什么买 119 00:03:44,468 --> 00:03:45,599 你疯了吗 120 00:03:45,599 --> 00:03:46,000 当然 121 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:46,439 如你所知 122 00:03:46,439 --> 00:03:48,159 这不是他第一次这么说 123 00:03:48,159 --> 00:03:49,099 也不是第一次 124 00:03:49,099 --> 00:03:50,909 许多末日预言家 125 00:03:50,909 --> 00:03:52,590 呼吁市场崩盘 126 00:03:52,590 --> 00:03:53,009 事实上 127 00:03:53,009 --> 00:03:53,250 是啊 128 00:03:53,250 --> 00:03:57,729 他上一次预测崩盘是在2023年四月 129 00:03:57,729 --> 00:04:01,069 他说标普500可能下跌50% 130 00:04:01,069 --> 00:04:04,849 当然读到的人吓得抛售一空 131 00:04:04,849 --> 00:04:05,849 并非所有人都这样 132 00:04:05,849 --> 00:04:07,150 正在观看这个频道的你们 133 00:04:07,150 --> 00:04:08,830 我相信你们足够聪明不会卖出 134 00:04:08,830 --> 00:04:10,710 只需保持持仓 135 00:04:10,710 --> 00:04:12,030 自从这次预测 136 00:04:12,030 --> 00:04:15,629 现在市场上涨了86% 137 00:04:15,629 --> 00:04:16,589 我回去查看 138 00:04:16,589 --> 00:04:17,050 我 139 00:04:17,050 --> 00:04:23,490 我无法统计他过去二十年预测了多少次崩盘 140 00:04:23,490 --> 00:04:27,009 当然他有一次是对的 141 00:04:28,569 --> 00:04:31,889 他在4月27日正确预测 142 00:04:31,889 --> 00:04:32,970 所以4月27日 143 00:04:32,970 --> 00:04:34,730 他说会有市场崩盘 144 00:04:34,730 --> 00:04:41,939 他正确了因为金融危机始于2007年十月 145 00:04:41,939 --> 00:04:43,180 这晚了几个月 146 00:04:43,180 --> 00:04:44,620 我向你致敬杰里米 147 00:04:44,620 --> 00:04:46,579 我向你致敬给你 148 00:04:46,579 --> 00:04:48,500 那次确实崩盘了 149 00:04:48,500 --> 00:04:49,160 那是一场熊市 150 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:50,220 市场衰退 151 00:04:50,220 --> 00:04:53,170 市场下跌了超过百分之五十 152 00:04:53,170 --> 00:04:53,730 如果我没记错的话 153 00:04:53,730 --> 00:04:55,449 差不多是百分之五十五 154 00:04:55,449 --> 00:04:59,798 这就是成为大师只需正确一次所需的一切 155 00:04:59,798 --> 00:05:04,119 然后他说市场会在2010年四月再次崩盘 156 00:05:04,119 --> 00:05:06,478 当时确实有小幅反弹 157 00:05:06,478 --> 00:05:07,670 这总是如此 158 00:05:07,670 --> 00:05:10,410 他说2014年十一月会有崩盘 159 00:05:10,410 --> 00:05:11,829 2018年一月 160 00:05:11,829 --> 00:05:12,689 再次崩盘 161 00:05:12,689 --> 00:05:15,490 科瓦斯之后的2020年六月 162 00:05:15,490 --> 00:05:16,370 市场正在复苏 163 00:05:16,370 --> 00:05:18,170 他说我们又要崩盘了 164 00:05:18,170 --> 00:05:21,079 当然三月一日并没有发生 165 00:05:21,079 --> 00:05:21,519 二一 166 00:05:21,519 --> 00:05:22,699 他说我们又要崩盘了 167 00:05:22,699 --> 00:05:23,720 2023年一月和二月 168 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:25,079 我们又要崩盘了 169 00:05:25,079 --> 00:05:26,699 当然那是个糟糕的市场 170 00:05:26,699 --> 00:05:28,980 但那是熊市中期 171 00:05:28,980 --> 00:05:31,180 2023年四月我们又要崩盘 172 00:05:31,180 --> 00:05:33,509 2024年八月又要崩盘 173 00:05:33,509 --> 00:05:34,629 嗯 174 00:05:34,629 --> 00:05:35,230 是啊 175 00:05:35,230 --> 00:05:36,329 也许当时他说对了 176 00:05:36,329 --> 00:05:37,990 但这并不是真正的崩盘 177 00:05:37,990 --> 00:05:39,230 这不是熊市 178 00:05:39,230 --> 00:05:41,629 只是快速修正 179 00:05:41,629 --> 00:05:42,300 呃 180 00:05:42,300 --> 00:05:43,500 多亏了特朗普的 181 00:05:43,500 --> 00:05:43,920 你知道的 182 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,699 那场毫无成效的疯狂贸易战 183 00:05:46,699 --> 00:05:52,500 然后当然2026年六月我们又要崩溃了 184 00:05:52,500 --> 00:05:55,660 到目前为止我们还没下跌 185 00:05:55,660 --> 00:05:56,860 当然有人会说 186 00:05:56,860 --> 00:05:58,519 但亚当赢了他会正确 187 00:05:58,519 --> 00:06:02,759 最终坏钟表每天也会对两次 188 00:06:02,759 --> 00:06:05,379 市场当然会崩盘 189 00:06:05,379 --> 00:06:08,689 当然偶尔会崩盘 190 00:06:08,689 --> 00:06:09,930 这就是市场 191 00:06:09,930 --> 00:06:11,970 市场也会上涨 192 00:06:11,970 --> 00:06:15,879 从统计上看市场上涨更多 193 00:06:15,879 --> 00:06:18,139 然后下跌 194 00:06:18,139 --> 00:06:21,959 上涨时涨幅远大于下跌时 195 00:06:21,959 --> 00:06:24,699 只要坚持持有经历涨跌 196 00:06:24,699 --> 00:06:25,660 而你永远无法预测 197 00:06:25,660 --> 00:06:26,639 何时发生 198 00:06:26,639 --> 00:06:28,750 你的财富将随时间增长 199 00:06:28,750 --> 00:06:30,889 看看这边的表格 200 00:06:30,889 --> 00:06:32,629 你可以看到 201 00:06:32,629 --> 00:06:35,550 杰里米·格兰瑟姆表示市场将出现崩盘 202 00:06:35,550 --> 00:06:35,829 你知道的 203 00:06:35,829 --> 00:06:38,750 现在会下跌50%吗？这会发生吗 204 00:06:38,750 --> 00:06:39,089 是的 205 00:06:39,089 --> 00:06:40,060 偶尔会发生 206 00:06:40,060 --> 00:06:44,079 当然，上次发生是在1928年金融危机 207 00:06:44,079 --> 00:06:44,800 1929年 208 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:46,160 市场从高点下跌了五 209 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:47,670 从高点下跌5% 210 00:06:47,670 --> 00:06:51,149 但到年底并未停留在5% 211 00:06:51,149 --> 00:06:52,709 从高点下跌5% 212 00:06:52,709 --> 00:06:56,069 最终跌至高点以下40% 213 00:06:56,069 --> 00:06:56,810 就是这样 214 00:06:56,810 --> 00:06:57,689 就在这里 215 00:06:57,689 --> 00:06:59,149 所以你可以看到历史数据 216 00:06:59,149 --> 00:07:04,610 过去75年仅三次超过30%的跌幅 217 00:07:04,610 --> 00:07:06,850 大约每2-8年一次 218 00:07:06,850 --> 00:07:10,829 在75年中发生过约1.3次 219 00:07:10,829 --> 00:07:12,800 占1.3%的时间 220 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:13,459 存在1.3%的概率 221 00:07:13,459 --> 00:07:16,540 市场发生这种情况的概率为1.3% 222 00:07:16,540 --> 00:07:22,639 但市场一年内上涨30-40%多常见吗 223 00:07:22,639 --> 00:07:23,860 这种情况并不常见 224 00:07:23,860 --> 00:07:27,339 但比大幅下跌更常见 225 00:07:27,339 --> 00:07:29,658 在过去的75年里 226 00:07:29,658 --> 00:07:32,779 市场曾上涨30-40% 227 00:07:32,779 --> 00:07:33,939 一次 228 00:07:33,939 --> 00:07:34,639 两次三次 229 00:07:34,639 --> 00:07:35,000 四次 230 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:35,360 五次 231 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:35,740 六次 232 00:07:35,740 --> 00:07:36,100 七次 233 00:07:36,100 --> 00:07:36,560 八次 234 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:38,180 历史上共十次 235 00:07:38,180 --> 00:07:40,060 占13%的时间 236 00:07:40,060 --> 00:07:41,350 所以想想看 237 00:07:41,350 --> 00:07:47,170 市场上涨30-40%的概率是13次 238 00:07:47,170 --> 00:07:50,470 比下跌30-40%高出13倍 239 00:07:50,790 --> 00:07:52,550 但市场可能下跌 240 00:07:52,550 --> 00:07:53,269 嗯 241 00:07:54,389 --> 00:07:56,209 一年内下跌20-30% 242 00:07:56,209 --> 00:07:57,069 是的 243 00:07:57,069 --> 00:08:00,730 历史上发生过约2.7%的时间 244 00:08:00,730 --> 00:08:02,279 但市场一年内上涨20-30%多常见 245 00:08:02,279 --> 00:08:06,740 这种情况发生过约2.3%的时间 246 00:08:06,740 --> 00:08:08,620 市场上涨20-30%发生过2.3次 247 00:08:08,620 --> 00:08:09,579 占2.3%的时间 248 00:08:09,579 --> 00:08:10,939 将2.3除以2.7 249 00:08:10,939 --> 00:08:13,810 约为7.8 250 00:08:14,009 --> 00:08:16,449 这就是结果 251 00:08:16,449 --> 00:08:18,370 所以这意味着同样的事情再次发生 252 00:08:18,370 --> 00:08:23,129 市场上涨至80到30%的概率高出七到八倍 253 00:08:23,129 --> 00:08:25,279 因此要下跌20到30%的可能性 254 00:08:25,279 --> 00:08:27,360 如果我们从概率角度考虑 255 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:29,680 留在市场中更为合理 256 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:32,139 持续投资比退出市场更好 257 00:08:32,139 --> 00:08:33,828 或做空市场 258 00:08:33,828 --> 00:08:35,528 为什么呢？再看看 259 00:08:35,528 --> 00:08:38,590 在过去的75年里 260 00:08:38,590 --> 00:08:40,549 你有78.7%的年份 261 00:08:40,549 --> 00:08:44,929 以7.21%的收益结束并有2.3% 262 00:08:44,929 --> 00:08:48,009 3%的年份以亏损结束 263 00:08:48,009 --> 00:08:51,570 现在想象一个轮盘赌盘 264 00:08:51,570 --> 00:08:57,029 红球和黑球数量各占一半 265 00:08:57,029 --> 00:08:59,250 还有一个绿色双零或零 266 00:08:59,250 --> 00:09:03,009 所以无论你押红还是黑 267 00:09:03,009 --> 00:09:06,960 赚钱的概率不到50% 268 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:09,419 现在想象一个轮盘赌盘 269 00:09:09,419 --> 00:09:14,980 有59个绿色数字和16个红色数字 270 00:09:14,980 --> 00:09:17,929 每次该押哪个数字 271 00:09:18,289 --> 00:09:19,289 这很明显 272 00:09:19,289 --> 00:09:20,669 一直押绿色 273 00:09:20,669 --> 00:09:22,009 因为如果你一直押绿色 274 00:09:22,009 --> 00:09:23,870 有时候会碰到红色 275 00:09:23,870 --> 00:09:25,690 但如果你一直押绿色 276 00:09:25,690 --> 00:09:28,710 你会78%的时间获胜 277 00:09:28,710 --> 00:09:31,409 这足以弥补那部分损失 278 00:09:31,409 --> 00:09:31,850 但两年 279 00:09:31,850 --> 00:09:32,909 一年会输一点 280 00:09:32,909 --> 00:09:34,549 当你偶尔亏损时 281 00:09:34,549 --> 00:09:39,169 如果考虑押红就太疯狂了 282 00:09:39,169 --> 00:09:44,340 但关键是不要相信任何市场预测 283 00:09:44,340 --> 00:09:47,679 如果你在过去的20年里留在市场 284 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:49,549 忽略所有预测 285 00:09:49,549 --> 00:09:50,070 是的 286 00:09:50,070 --> 00:09:55,529 你会经历波动和几次熊市 287 00:09:55,529 --> 00:10:02,690 但20年财富将增长600%（复利加股息） 288 00:10:02,690 --> 00:10:07,429 但若听信预测退出市场 289 00:10:07,429 --> 00:10:08,429 害怕 290 00:10:08,429 --> 00:10:12,659 退出市场并持有现金20年 291 00:10:12,659 --> 00:10:17,349 财富将被通胀摧毁 292 00:10:17,908 --> 00:10:19,109 你可能会说 293 00:10:19,109 --> 00:10:23,399 但坏钟有时也对两次 294 00:10:23,399 --> 00:10:26,158 今年或明年是否会有市场崩盘 295 00:10:26,158 --> 00:10:27,778 这又怎样 296 00:10:27,778 --> 00:10:33,460 现在SPY ETF在729点 297 00:10:33,460 --> 00:10:34,159 事实上 298 00:10:34,159 --> 00:10:37,980 我认为自上次记录图表后已更高 299 00:10:37,980 --> 00:10:38,059 现在 300 00:10:38,059 --> 00:10:39,159 我认为现在更高 301 00:10:39,159 --> 00:10:41,399 即使下跌百分之五十 302 00:10:41,399 --> 00:10:47,070 就像他说的最终会达到六百三十五点 303 00:10:48,070 --> 00:10:50,029 在六百三十五点时 304 00:10:50,029 --> 00:10:55,490 如果你持续持有并经历这百分之五十的下跌且红利再投资 305 00:10:55,490 --> 00:11:02,220 过去二十年仍能获得三百一十六个百分点的回报 306 00:11:02,220 --> 00:11:07,019 年均增长率为百分之九点二 307 00:11:07,019 --> 00:11:08,580 我说这不算特别激动人心 308 00:11:08,580 --> 00:11:10,100 但至少能跑赢通胀 309 00:11:10,100 --> 00:11:11,700 至少能让财富增长相比 310 00:11:11,700 --> 00:11:15,710 如果你远离市场将资金单纯投入现金 311 00:11:15,710 --> 00:11:19,200 货币基金或国债、票据 312 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:20,399 以及持有现金 313 00:11:20,399 --> 00:11:21,440 你只能获得 314 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:22,659 百分之二点七 315 00:11:22,659 --> 00:11:23,980 几乎无法战胜通胀 316 00:11:23,980 --> 00:11:24,720 正如我所说 317 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:26,240 我们将经历熊市 318 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,539 偶尔会有市场回调 319 00:11:28,539 --> 00:11:31,490 没有人能准确预测何时发生 320 00:11:31,490 --> 00:11:35,090 但拥有早期预警系统岂不是很好 321 00:11:35,090 --> 00:11:35,950 是的 322 00:11:35,950 --> 00:11:40,490 这就是我创建衰退与市场顶峰仪表盘的原因 323 00:11:40,490 --> 00:11:42,009 我现在将向你演示 324 00:11:42,009 --> 00:11:43,769 如果你想获取这个工具 325 00:11:43,769 --> 00:11:46,289 我将发送专属访问权限 326 00:11:46,289 --> 00:11:50,580 只需注册反泡沫狂热活动 327 00:11:50,580 --> 00:11:53,899 前往下方描述框中的链接 328 00:11:53,899 --> 00:11:57,500 点击注册参加此活动是一系列直播研讨会 329 00:11:57,500 --> 00:12:00,960 我将与我的其他导师共同主持 330 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:03,220 陈森和邦范邦 331 00:12:03,220 --> 00:12:08,289 注册后即可获得鲨鱼利润 332 00:12:08,289 --> 00:12:11,289 衰退与市场顶峰仪表盘 好的 333 00:12:11,289 --> 00:12:14,289 现在让我展示其运作方式 334 00:12:14,289 --> 00:12:18,379 什么导致市场崩盘呢 335 00:12:18,379 --> 00:12:22,568 要么是大幅回调或熊市 336 00:12:26,609 --> 00:12:27,009 明白 337 00:12:27,009 --> 00:12:29,279 当出现衰退时 338 00:12:29,279 --> 00:12:31,360 市场会提前反映 339 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:33,539 并在熊市中开始下跌 340 00:12:33,539 --> 00:12:36,759 我们称之为衰退性熊市 341 00:12:36,759 --> 00:12:42,340 当然市场平均可能下跌二十到三十五个百分点 342 00:12:43,860 --> 00:12:46,370 这是第一点 第二点 343 00:12:46,370 --> 00:12:49,539 有时市场可能在无衰退时下跌 344 00:12:49,539 --> 00:12:49,980 例如 345 00:12:49,980 --> 00:12:51,320 在2022年 346 00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:53,360 市场进入熊市 347 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:54,700 但无经济衰退 348 00:12:54,700 --> 00:12:57,019 有时没有衰退 349 00:12:57,019 --> 00:12:59,059 但市场仍可能回调 350 00:12:59,059 --> 00:13:02,609 因为它就是我们所说的泡沫化 351 00:13:02,609 --> 00:13:03,249 换句话说 352 00:13:03,249 --> 00:13:06,769 市场正显示出泡沫的迹象 353 00:13:06,769 --> 00:13:08,889 所以这可能是第二个原因 354 00:13:09,129 --> 00:13:12,980 因此我们综合两者来确认 355 00:13:12,980 --> 00:13:15,860 然后我会查看技术指标 356 00:13:15,860 --> 00:13:17,899 也就是移动平均线 357 00:13:17,899 --> 00:13:19,460 所以我将三个指标结合 358 00:13:19,460 --> 00:13:21,120 称为视角一 359 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:24,360 视角二和视角三 360 00:13:24,769 --> 00:13:28,169 为了获得早期预警 361 00:13:28,169 --> 00:13:30,590 我们即将进入熊市修正 362 00:13:30,590 --> 00:13:33,620 需要视角一的确认 363 00:13:33,860 --> 00:13:36,769 加上视角三或视角二 364 00:13:36,769 --> 00:13:37,850 再加上视角街 365 00:13:37,850 --> 00:13:41,470 视角三总是通过价格走势确认 366 00:13:41,470 --> 00:13:45,500 但需视角一或视角二先触发 367 00:13:45,500 --> 00:13:47,179 那么视角一是什么 368 00:13:47,179 --> 00:13:47,639 视角二 369 00:13:47,639 --> 00:13:48,399 我们来分析一下 370 00:13:48,399 --> 00:13:48,720 好的 371 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:53,830 首先视角一即衰退风险仪表盘 372 00:13:53,830 --> 00:13:59,759 这里收集所有指标判断 373 00:13:59,759 --> 00:14:00,919 是否 374 00:14:00,919 --> 00:14:01,600 第一点 375 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:04,159 没有任何接近衰退的信号 376 00:14:04,159 --> 00:14:06,799 或存在潜在混合信号 377 00:14:06,799 --> 00:14:09,509 可能即将发生或风险升高 378 00:14:09,509 --> 00:14:10,190 高概率 379 00:14:10,190 --> 00:14:12,149 我们将陷入衰退 380 00:14:12,149 --> 00:14:12,490 好的 381 00:14:12,490 --> 00:14:14,210 所以绿色黄色红色 382 00:14:14,210 --> 00:14:16,950 如何判断我们需查看所有指标 383 00:14:16,950 --> 00:14:18,200 U型曲线 384 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:20,139 是否倒置 385 00:14:20,139 --> 00:14:22,019 嗯合成规则 386 00:14:22,019 --> 00:14:25,409 实际测量失业率变化率 387 00:14:25,409 --> 00:14:27,990 观察高收益债利差 388 00:14:27,990 --> 00:14:28,649 嗯 389 00:14:28,649 --> 00:14:30,370 期权调整利差 390 00:14:30,370 --> 00:14:33,129 观察制造业PMI 391 00:14:33,129 --> 00:14:38,610 观察十项经济领先指标 392 00:14:38,610 --> 00:14:40,549 观察劳动力市场 393 00:14:40,549 --> 00:14:41,870 观察就业数据 394 00:14:41,870 --> 00:14:45,870 并观察整体估值（谢勒凯特PE比率） 395 00:14:45,870 --> 00:14:48,269 我并不完全认同 396 00:14:48,269 --> 00:14:48,990 暂且不论 397 00:14:48,990 --> 00:14:51,389 这些变量中 398 00:14:51,389 --> 00:14:51,889 好的 399 00:14:51,889 --> 00:14:56,679 综合起来一二三四五六 400 00:14:56,679 --> 00:15:02,669 这七个变量将告诉我我们是否处于高风险状态 401 00:15:03,070 --> 00:15:05,429 混合或良性 402 00:15:08,089 --> 00:15:09,129 所以现在 403 00:15:09,129 --> 00:15:10,308 在所有这些指标中 404 00:15:10,308 --> 00:15:13,928 你可以看到这很正常 405 00:15:13,928 --> 00:15:14,849 所以绿色是正常的 406 00:15:14,849 --> 00:15:15,089 对吧 407 00:15:15,089 --> 00:15:20,169 所以良好良好良好良好通过改善 408 00:15:20,169 --> 00:15:23,409 领先经济指标实际上在改善 409 00:15:24,570 --> 00:15:25,039 好的 410 00:15:25,039 --> 00:15:28,669 而劳动力市场也有些混合 411 00:15:28,669 --> 00:15:29,929 但正在改善 412 00:15:29,929 --> 00:15:31,029 正如我之前提到的 413 00:15:31,029 --> 00:15:31,549 嗯 414 00:15:31,549 --> 00:15:33,470 薪资实际上好于预期 415 00:15:33,470 --> 00:15:35,960 事实上在五月达到了预期的两倍 416 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:37,279 五月对吧 417 00:15:37,279 --> 00:15:39,639 唯一红灯的是估值 418 00:15:39,639 --> 00:15:45,399 因为如果看周期调整后的市盈率 419 00:15:45,399 --> 00:15:46,549 看起来非常高 420 00:15:46,549 --> 00:15:48,909 但市盈率的问题在于 421 00:15:48,909 --> 00:15:54,830 它没有考虑到如今与十年前相比收益的大幅增长 422 00:15:54,830 --> 00:15:57,309 所以总体来看 423 00:15:57,309 --> 00:15:59,070 一个指标显示 424 00:16:03,379 --> 00:16:05,539 未来十二个月内无衰退信号 425 00:16:05,539 --> 00:16:07,139 所以指标一正常 426 00:16:07,139 --> 00:16:08,720 好的现在 427 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:09,740 那指标二呢 428 00:16:09,740 --> 00:16:10,500 正如我说的 429 00:16:10,500 --> 00:16:13,570 指标二意味着可能无衰退 430 00:16:13,570 --> 00:16:15,529 但市场仍可能崩盘 431 00:16:15,529 --> 00:16:19,909 因为市场条件过热且过高 432 00:16:19,909 --> 00:16:20,539 好的 433 00:16:20,539 --> 00:16:22,240 对于指标二来说 434 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:24,200 我们关注哪些指标 435 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:30,480 我们观察十个指标一至十 436 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:31,019 同样 437 00:16:31,019 --> 00:16:33,859 其中一些是反向指标 438 00:16:34,418 --> 00:16:35,999 我不会详细解释 439 00:16:35,999 --> 00:16:37,999 这些指标各自含义 440 00:16:37,999 --> 00:16:39,019 因为 441 00:16:39,019 --> 00:16:39,558 如果你想的话 442 00:16:39,558 --> 00:16:40,970 可以自行阅读 443 00:16:40,970 --> 00:16:43,950 所有内容都在术语表部分 444 00:16:43,950 --> 00:16:45,269 例如 445 00:16:45,269 --> 00:16:46,309 如果你查看 446 00:16:46,309 --> 00:16:46,830 嗯 447 00:16:46,830 --> 00:16:48,139 消费者信心 448 00:16:48,139 --> 00:16:53,080 可以看到消费者信心指数读数超过110 449 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:55,350 反映家庭乐观情绪 450 00:16:55,350 --> 00:16:58,190 乐观情绪常出现在市场顶部附近 451 00:16:58,190 --> 00:16:58,549 所以再次 452 00:16:58,549 --> 00:17:00,289 这是一个逆向指标 453 00:17:00,289 --> 00:17:01,000 换句话说 454 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,200 当大多数人认为我们表现良好时 455 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:04,019 他们充满信心 456 00:17:04,019 --> 00:17:04,680 哦 457 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:05,759 这确实是顶部 458 00:17:05,759 --> 00:17:07,380 因为存在逆向指标 459 00:17:07,380 --> 00:17:08,380 所以很高 460 00:17:08,380 --> 00:17:10,640 一百一十以上不好 461 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:11,299 哦 462 00:17:11,299 --> 00:17:12,359 我们可能处于泡沫中 463 00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:12,779 好的 464 00:17:12,779 --> 00:17:13,180 所以再次 465 00:17:13,180 --> 00:17:14,920 其余内容你可以仔细阅读理解 466 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:15,500 总之 467 00:17:15,500 --> 00:17:21,480 让我快速浏览这些指标的读数（针对第二视角） 468 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:28,029 所以你看这里有1到10 469 00:17:28,029 --> 00:17:30,529 嗯1、2、3 470 00:17:30,529 --> 00:17:30,890 4 471 00:17:30,890 --> 00:17:31,289 5 472 00:17:31,289 --> 00:17:33,150 6已被触发 473 00:17:33,150 --> 00:17:34,970 总共十项 474 00:17:35,329 --> 00:17:39,289 其中六项表明市场呈泡沫化 475 00:17:39,289 --> 00:17:40,009 blah blah blah 476 00:17:40,009 --> 00:17:40,089 blah 477 00:17:40,089 --> 00:17:40,250 blah 478 00:17:40,250 --> 00:17:40,910 blah blah 479 00:17:40,910 --> 00:17:41,569 好的 480 00:17:41,569 --> 00:17:42,549 但呃 481 00:17:42,549 --> 00:17:45,380 1、2、3尚未触发 482 00:17:45,380 --> 00:17:47,200 而一项可能 483 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:50,619 即将触发但尚未触发，总体而言 484 00:17:50,619 --> 00:17:58,150 这表明当前泡沫概率为65%至70% 485 00:17:58,390 --> 00:17:59,650 现在是否该恐慌 486 00:17:59,650 --> 00:18:00,109 不 487 00:18:00,109 --> 00:18:00,549 好的 488 00:18:00,549 --> 00:18:04,690 稍后我会展示历史上超过80%时的情况 489 00:18:04,690 --> 00:18:05,390 哦 490 00:18:05,390 --> 00:18:07,980 那时可以开始适度恐慌了 491 00:18:07,980 --> 00:18:08,480 好的 492 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:08,759 所以 493 00:18:08,759 --> 00:18:09,319 换句话说 494 00:18:10,519 --> 00:18:13,159 若第二视角超过80% 495 00:18:13,679 --> 00:18:19,309 我们可以开始预判崩盘，但这不意味抛售一切 496 00:18:19,309 --> 00:18:20,829 因为没有百分百确定性 497 00:18:20,829 --> 00:18:25,289 这意味着不要激进买入或停止购买 498 00:18:25,289 --> 00:18:27,390 或者可以建立一些对冲 499 00:18:27,390 --> 00:18:28,029 例如 500 00:18:28,029 --> 00:18:28,670 好的 501 00:18:28,670 --> 00:18:31,309 或者如果镜头一变红 502 00:18:34,549 --> 00:18:37,509 但要确认镜头一和镜头二 503 00:18:37,509 --> 00:18:39,630 我们必须查看镜头树 504 00:18:39,630 --> 00:18:41,650 这是价格走势确认 505 00:18:41,650 --> 00:18:44,000 这是五十日移动平均线 506 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:45,559 跌破一 507 00:18:45,559 --> 00:18:46,720 五十日移动平均线 508 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:48,240 并呈下降趋势 509 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:51,539 这进一步确认了熊市 510 00:18:51,900 --> 00:18:53,119 好的现在 511 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:55,339 为什么必须通过价格走势确认 512 00:18:55,339 --> 00:18:56,180 我给你举个例子 513 00:18:56,180 --> 00:18:59,039 现在看看标普五百指数 514 00:18:59,319 --> 00:19:01,400 如果我输入当前时间 515 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:03,359 我需要切换到日线蜡烛图 516 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:08,019 并添加五十日移动平均线 517 00:19:08,019 --> 00:19:09,420 让我先 518 00:19:09,420 --> 00:19:11,200 关闭所有图表 519 00:19:16,180 --> 00:19:17,299 好了没问题 520 00:19:17,299 --> 00:19:18,299 例如 521 00:19:18,299 --> 00:19:18,740 嗯 522 00:19:18,740 --> 00:19:20,579 你能看到上次熊市是什么时候 523 00:19:20,579 --> 00:19:23,779 上次熊市是2022年 524 00:19:23,779 --> 00:19:29,400 对的并且需要价格走势确认 525 00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:32,440 当五十日线跌破150日线时 526 00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:34,970 熊市得到确认 527 00:19:34,970 --> 00:19:39,269 然后当五十日线重新上穿150日线 528 00:19:39,269 --> 00:19:40,489 趋势必须反转 529 00:19:40,489 --> 00:19:42,528 这就是新的牛市信号 530 00:19:42,528 --> 00:19:45,409 所以这是退出信号 531 00:19:45,409 --> 00:19:47,990 或者说提示 532 00:19:47,990 --> 00:19:48,390 嗯 533 00:19:48,390 --> 00:19:49,609 应果断止损 534 00:19:49,609 --> 00:19:50,769 为了更保守 535 00:19:50,769 --> 00:19:51,750 降低杠杆比例 536 00:19:51,750 --> 00:19:52,650 如果你使用杠杆 537 00:19:52,650 --> 00:19:56,900 这也是入场信号以便 538 00:19:56,900 --> 00:19:57,440 嗯 539 00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:58,660 捕捉新上升趋势 540 00:19:58,660 --> 00:20:02,460 这就是镜头三 541 00:20:02,460 --> 00:20:04,359 基于前面的第三点 542 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:05,359 嗯 543 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:09,029 目前没有熊市确认 544 00:20:09,029 --> 00:20:10,029 显然没错 545 00:20:10,029 --> 00:20:13,329 因为五十日均线仍高于150日均线 546 00:20:13,329 --> 00:20:16,309 并且显示价格趋势为绿色 547 00:20:16,309 --> 00:20:23,869 目前短期内没有熊市或衰退 548 00:20:23,869 --> 00:20:25,730 过去这引发了什么变化 549 00:20:25,730 --> 00:20:26,869 现在这个问题提得好 550 00:20:26,869 --> 00:20:28,309 在过去的二十年里 551 00:20:28,309 --> 00:20:30,859 我们经历了多少次熊市呢 552 00:20:30,859 --> 00:20:32,339 我们只有三次 553 00:20:32,339 --> 00:20:33,230 实际上 554 00:20:33,230 --> 00:20:36,369 我们在2008年有过一次熊市 555 00:20:36,369 --> 00:20:39,650 2020年发生了重大金融危机并伴随熊市 556 00:20:39,650 --> 00:20:41,609 那就是股灾 557 00:20:41,609 --> 00:20:44,250 我们在2022年又经历了一次熊市 558 00:20:44,250 --> 00:20:46,349 二十年里共三次熊市 559 00:20:46,349 --> 00:20:51,400 用我展示的方法是否能提前预警 560 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:51,920 是的 561 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:52,960 确实如此 562 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:53,460 例如 563 00:20:53,460 --> 00:20:59,000 你可以看到这次崩盘前的迹象 564 00:21:02,289 --> 00:21:04,589 达到了预警状态 565 00:21:04,589 --> 00:21:06,190 事实上就在这里触发了 566 00:21:06,190 --> 00:21:08,900 一旦收到这个信号 567 00:21:08,900 --> 00:21:11,819 你可以再次退出市场 568 00:21:11,819 --> 00:21:13,839 或调整持仓 569 00:21:13,839 --> 00:21:14,460 比如买入 570 00:21:14,460 --> 00:21:15,059 买入看跌期权 571 00:21:15,059 --> 00:21:15,920 或者 572 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:17,119 降低杠杆 573 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:17,609 或者 574 00:21:17,609 --> 00:21:21,309 基本减少买入操作 575 00:21:21,309 --> 00:21:27,720 然后镜头一再次触发在这里 576 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:29,839 这里再次触发了 577 00:21:29,839 --> 00:21:33,219 在股灾前非常精准 578 00:21:33,219 --> 00:21:36,959 但它会有假信号吗 579 00:21:36,959 --> 00:21:37,670 是的 580 00:21:37,670 --> 00:21:41,789 实际上镜头一也触发了衰退信号 581 00:21:41,789 --> 00:21:47,378 如2022年中期可见 582 00:21:47,378 --> 00:21:49,318 信号实际触发在这里 583 00:21:49,318 --> 00:21:49,818 好的 584 00:21:49,818 --> 00:21:50,538 信号确实触发在这里 585 00:21:50,538 --> 00:21:53,000 当然这是假信号 586 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:54,880 当时并未发生衰退 587 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:57,119 当然这是熊市末期 588 00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:58,460 市场随后反转了 589 00:21:58,460 --> 00:21:58,930 是的 590 00:21:58,930 --> 00:21:59,549 再次说明 591 00:21:59,549 --> 00:22:01,890 任何信号都不是完美无缺 592 00:22:01,890 --> 00:22:03,369 可能存在假信号 593 00:22:03,369 --> 00:22:04,009 因此我说 594 00:22:04,009 --> 00:22:06,109 收到信号不意味着立即行动 595 00:22:06,109 --> 00:22:06,690 你需要确认 596 00:22:06,690 --> 00:22:08,318 因为可能是假信号 597 00:22:08,318 --> 00:22:11,358 所有这些都在告诉我们的是降低你的风险 598 00:22:11,358 --> 00:22:13,029 降低你的风险 599 00:22:13,029 --> 00:22:13,690 好的 600 00:22:13,690 --> 00:22:15,289 这就是第一个视角 601 00:22:15,289 --> 00:22:16,650 现在来看第二个视角 602 00:22:16,650 --> 00:22:19,250 记住第二个视角是泡沫过热指标 603 00:22:19,250 --> 00:22:21,799 当它达到80%或以上时 604 00:22:21,799 --> 00:22:23,319 这就是当前的早期预警信号 605 00:22:23,319 --> 00:22:24,200 我们还没到80% 606 00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,099 目前在65%到70%之间 607 00:22:26,099 --> 00:22:29,480 上次达到80%时发生了什么啊 608 00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:34,799 所以第二个视角在2007年10月达到80% 609 00:22:34,799 --> 00:22:39,509 这再次在大金融危机前发出明确预警 610 00:22:39,509 --> 00:22:41,809 请注意在大金融危机期间 611 00:22:41,809 --> 00:22:45,730 第一个和第二个视角都发出了早期预警 612 00:22:45,730 --> 00:22:51,000 第一个视角在这里触发，第二个视角在这里触发 613 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,880 所以两者都触发了，还有什么需要补充的吗 614 00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:57,420 现在你最好降低风险 615 00:22:57,420 --> 00:23:02,519 第二个视角在新冠崩盘期间未触发 616 00:23:02,519 --> 00:23:07,410 因为新冠崩盘并非源于市场泡沫 617 00:23:07,410 --> 00:23:13,009 而是由于疫情这种无法预见的因素 618 00:23:13,009 --> 00:23:13,450 好的 619 00:23:13,450 --> 00:23:16,759 显然新冠期间未触发 620 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:18,839 但确实触发了 621 00:23:18,839 --> 00:23:19,440 呃 622 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:22,980 第二个视角在2021年底触发 623 00:23:22,980 --> 00:23:24,700 达到80%水平 624 00:23:24,700 --> 00:23:25,140 再次 625 00:23:25,140 --> 00:23:29,960 这在2022年熊市前提供了良好预警 626 00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:30,819 我们一切正常 627 00:23:30,819 --> 00:23:34,470 可以看到有时第一个视角会触发 628 00:23:34,710 --> 00:23:36,349 有时第二个视角会触发 629 00:23:36,349 --> 00:23:39,509 有时两者同时触发 630 00:23:39,509 --> 00:23:41,349 这非常实用 631 00:23:41,349 --> 00:23:42,150 但再次强调 632 00:23:42,150 --> 00:23:44,409 务必结合第三个视角确认 633 00:23:44,409 --> 00:23:45,249 是的 634 00:23:45,249 --> 00:23:46,068 好的，很好 635 00:23:46,068 --> 00:23:47,828 希望你喜欢这个视频，再次 636 00:23:47,828 --> 00:23:51,669 请注册参加我的反泡沫狂热生命事件 637 00:23:51,669 --> 00:23:53,240 九天后即将开启 638 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:56,759 我们将举办一系列网络研讨会 639 00:23:56,759 --> 00:23:59,730 介绍我的投资方向、减仓策略及布局计划 640 00:23:59,730 --> 00:24:02,950 还将讨论价格操纵行为 641 00:24:02,950 --> 00:24:07,170 以及加密货币市场，班恩·范将分享 642 00:24:07,170 --> 00:24:08,970 极具威力的期权策略 643 00:24:08,970 --> 00:24:12,170 并讲解如何用期权进一步降低风险 644 00:24:12,170 --> 00:24:13,549 以及 645 00:24:13,549 --> 00:24:16,779 在当前市场环境中实现更高收益 646 00:24:16,779 --> 00:24:17,440 谢谢 647 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:18,579 愿市场与你同在 648 00:24:18,579 --> 00:24:23,420 我会在直播活动注册链接在下方描述框中，大家见 649 00:24:23,420 --> 00:24:24,440 现在就去那里
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