美股：存储剧烈波动，特斯拉为何大涨？【2026-06-29】

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Hello

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大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是SUNY

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今天是2026年6月29号星期一

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本周只有四个交易日

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因为星期五是美国国庆补休而休市

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标普指数今天上涨了86.41点

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涨幅1.18%

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日K线仍在三角形整理当中

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不能看两天反弹就觉得万事大吉

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只有当指数向上突破三角形整理时

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新的上升趋势才有可能确立

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这意味着标普指数再涨60个点左右

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或许就能摆脱整理形态了

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纳斯达克指数今天上涨了522.53点

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涨幅2.07%

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指数跌破60日线后反弹两天

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说明这一条绿色的60日均线

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具有较好的支撑作用

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因为这条线目前是以45度角上升的方向

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如果指数能守住并延60日线

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或许可以突破整理区间

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形成一轮上升趋势

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和标普纳指相比

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这次道指稳重得多

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道指今天上涨了306点

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涨幅0.59%

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收盘5万2182点

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日K线图稳定上涨

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不像纳指那样调整

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道琼斯指数经过上百年的变迁

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成份股已经不完全是老传统

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因循守旧的那些公司了

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如今道指里边也有苹果

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微软

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英伟达等道指成分股

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并不排除科技股

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去年以来

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美联储独立性受到市场关注

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川普上台后打击鲍威尔

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试图迫使美联储大幅降低利率

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在当时的手段中

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就有一个叫丽莎库克的理事

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因为手上拿两套房

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都按自住房申请贷款

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怀疑是欺诈

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被提起了诉讼

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今天美国最高法院就此案裁决

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结果放过库克一马

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首席大法官罗伯茨指出

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如果允许总统仅凭单方面指控就随意解雇

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美联储理事

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实际上会将联邦储备法规定的因故解雇

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保护机制彻底变成随意解雇

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这将从根本上破坏中央银行独立制定货

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币政策的传统与防线

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最高法院强调保护美联储独立性

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而美联储独立性是美国金融市场的基石之一

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这项裁决

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减轻了市场对美联储可能受到政治干预的担忧

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我记得去年在打击鲍威尔时

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市场因独立性问题还曾有一定的波动

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美股应该是希望货币政策就是货币政策

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不要有太多不确定性因素

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虽然职务是保住了

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但这个案件还在审理

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有没有罪还不清楚

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内存大涨之后

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苹果就开始涨价

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结果美光的老总暗示苹果太过抠门儿

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说我们卖一个七美元的内存

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他就装在铁盒子里

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卖99美元

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现在内存涨到50美元

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它就向消费者涨价250

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得罪苹果

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没什么好的

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苹果在几年前说我自研芯片

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英特尔马上大跌

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近年来又说不太想用高通的基带芯片

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结果高通的股价虽然上涨

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但远远跑输半导体

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并且持股体验也不好

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内存涨价传导到消费者

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结果14名消费者就在美国

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把三家内存公司给告了

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美国当地消费者在加州联邦法院提起诉讼

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称三星海力士和美光控制d ram市场的全部供应

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在价格大幅上涨期间

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却限制产品供应

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进一步加剧了内存短缺危机

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价格上涨

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为什么反而削减产能呢

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因为高带宽内存

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HBM是数据中心不可缺少的配件

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需求爆炸增长

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内存公司将资源倾斜给HBM10

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传统d ram产出就受限了

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在资源有限的情况下

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企业追求每一片晶元利润最大化

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是非常正常的选择

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但不知道怎么的

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消费者跑去把这三家公司给告了

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告他们垄断

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那么内存会不会扩大产能呢

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隔夜韩国政府宣布将半导体实体

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AI和数据中心确立为未来发展的三大战略支柱

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并推出总规模1800万亿韩元

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三大国家级项目

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三星和SK也同步公布重大投资计划

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三星集团宣布

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2655万亿韩元的巨额投资

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头像是半导体产业集群

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机器人

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电池数据中心

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数字孪生工厂

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AI服务器封装等

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SK集团将投资1100万亿韩元

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分阶段建设全国15级瓦的数据中心

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之前美股市场

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一听到数据中心巨额资本开支就色变

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这会儿韩国两大巨头的巨额资本支出

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一提出诶

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他们的股市又涨了

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这极有可能是存利变算力的战略需要

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两家公司是存储巨头

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转投数据中心是投资算力

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那为什么算力这么重要呢

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有一个新闻说是谷歌限制meta访问JAMI乃模型

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不是两家公司关系不好

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是算力不太够用

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据英国金融时报报道

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meta向谷歌申请的算力规模超出后者的供给能力

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谷歌现在已经对meta调用其GEMINI

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人工智能大型模型实施使用限制

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报道说啊

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早在3月份

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谷歌就告知meta说无法满足他们的需要了

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导致算力缺口

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算力不够用以后呢

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meta多项内部人工智能项目进度受阻

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被迫延期

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谷歌在6月份还向SPACEX租了算力

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可见人工智能对算力的需求大的

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他自己都不够用啊

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不够用的时候

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那得优先保障自己的

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别人要租用的

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那就先放一边吧

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啊

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那这就解释了

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为什么云巨头个个要自己花几千亿投资算力

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投资大了

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市场也不买账

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微软在6月份的表现

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可以说是历史上最糟糕的一个月

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空头有几个砸盘的理由

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巨额资本支出消耗自由现金流

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AI替代软件

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比尔盖茨晚节不保等等

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但最近大空头MICHAELBURRY看涨

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微软买了一个虚值看涨期权

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认为微软能翻倍

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berry将看涨期权的行权价买在700美元

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不过他买的是LEAP

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也就是到期时间较长的一种期权

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这些微软看涨期权的到期日是

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2028年12月到期

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还有两年多的时间

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MICROBERRY的这个交易

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用白话说就是他认为两年多的时间里

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微软能翻倍涨到700美元以上

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现在当然是没有人相信他了

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他早早的就做空费城半导体

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现在又做多

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微软好像方向都是反的

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不过这个人就是逆向交易出名的杠杆

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用的大干对一票可以输好几回

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微软在6月份的走势看起来挺可怕的

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但是也极有可能是难得的买入机会

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现在散户是不可能有耐心去等微软的反弹的

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而是天天追着镁光闪迪之类的抄底逃顶

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一两天就10%了

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存储股趋势很好

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主要方向是强劲的上涨趋势

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但是高位波动很大

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尤其受到韩国市场的影响

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每天波动率很大

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要是早期成本低的仓位可能不怕波动

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但大多数散户应该是涨了很多了才追进去的

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也有可能是买了卖

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卖了又买

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账上的成本都比较高了

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持仓成本高的时候

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波动一大就容易亏钱

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高买低卖

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主要原因是害怕害

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既害怕formal

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又害怕站在山顶上被收割

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那要怎么办呢

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啊以闪迪来说

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20日线好像是一个上升趋势线

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那就跌到20日均线

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买一些涨了卖掉等回调

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今天明星股当中特斯拉涨幅不错

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今天涨了8.46%

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今天的大阳线应该是延续之前一段上升趋势

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有机会形成一波上涨

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过几天就会发布二季度交付数据

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市场的预测均值是40.6万辆

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与一季度环比增长12%呃

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最近大型投行还提高了预估数

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认为特斯拉可能正在实现销售复苏

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一季度的库存有望消化一些

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到2030年将一年交付265万辆车

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能源存储业务方面也将大幅增长

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从2026年的57.9几瓦

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增长到2030年的150几瓦

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增长率

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虽然没有半导体那么快

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但也算是慢慢的在增长了

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00:09:21,629 --> 00:09:24,950
木头姐在前一段时间没怎么买股票

224
00:09:24,950 --> 00:09:27,529
最近看到他又在扫货了

225
00:09:27,529 --> 00:09:28,649
a ark基金

226
00:09:28,649 --> 00:09:32,879
买入的标的主要有CBRSCRWV

227
00:09:32,879 --> 00:09:34,960
特斯拉POTR

228
00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:38,250
SPACEXRBLX等等

229
00:09:38,250 --> 00:09:41,210
他还增持了circle coin base

230
00:09:41,210 --> 00:09:43,409
robin火等加密相关的股票

231
00:09:44,529 --> 00:09:46,220
但也是有买有卖

232
00:09:46,220 --> 00:09:48,200
主要涉及的股票里面

233
00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:51,799
RKLB今天说要收购一星通信

234
00:09:51,799 --> 00:09:53,750
要对标SPACEX

235
00:09:53,750 --> 00:09:57,318
rocket lab计划80亿收购IRDM

236
00:09:57,318 --> 00:10:00,918
整合一星通信的全球频谱卫星

237
00:10:00,918 --> 00:10:04,549
星座资源与火箭发射和卫星制造能力

238
00:10:04,549 --> 00:10:07,909
rocket lab是新晋标普成分股的公司

239
00:10:07,909 --> 00:10:11,370
所以还是有两下子在并购案中的

240
00:10:11,370 --> 00:10:13,009
收购方通常下跌

241
00:10:13,009 --> 00:10:14,389
因为有资金压力

242
00:10:14,389 --> 00:10:16,190
有增发股票的压力

243
00:10:16,190 --> 00:10:17,980
收购还有溢价

244
00:10:17,980 --> 00:10:20,179
以前看到有收购案的话

245
00:10:20,179 --> 00:10:22,299
收购方下跌居多

246
00:10:22,299 --> 00:10:25,210
被收购的一方则是上涨的居多

247
00:10:25,210 --> 00:10:29,730
但这次RKLB和IRDM这笔并购

248
00:10:29,730 --> 00:10:34,159
既然对标了SPCX就有宏大的叙事

249
00:10:34,159 --> 00:10:38,240
rocket lab在SPACEX上市前先行上涨

250
00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:41,230
在SPACEX上市后大幅调整

251
00:10:41,230 --> 00:10:45,129
今天的这一并购消息应该能够使股价反弹

252
00:10:45,129 --> 00:10:48,950
那么IRDM这家公司是被收购方

253
00:10:48,950 --> 00:10:51,710
他的股东可以每股获得27美元

254
00:10:51,710 --> 00:10:55,159
现金及一定数量的RKLB普通股

255
00:10:55,159 --> 00:10:57,720
具体配送股票的数量还没有公布

256
00:10:58,720 --> 00:10:59,980
上一期节目的评论

257
00:10:59,980 --> 00:11:02,539
有观众提到了PLTR

258
00:11:02,539 --> 00:11:05,899
那么POTR热门是去年以前的事了

259
00:11:05,899 --> 00:11:07,740
今年主要是下跌的

260
00:11:07,740 --> 00:11:11,799
人工智能加国防的概念在市场上并不多见

261
00:11:11,799 --> 00:11:14,279
但是预期已经很高

262
00:11:14,279 --> 00:11:15,539
估值高

263
00:11:15,539 --> 00:11:18,899
软件上看市盈率达到了130倍

264
00:11:18,899 --> 00:11:21,990
估值高要通过高增长来消化

265
00:11:21,990 --> 00:11:25,190
另外POTR虽然是AI平台

266
00:11:25,190 --> 00:11:27,690
但也仍然是平台型软件

267
00:11:27,690 --> 00:11:30,370
今年的软件行业不都在回调吗

268
00:11:30,370 --> 00:11:33,269
和软件沾边的就容易下跌

269
00:11:33,590 --> 00:11:37,769
目前股价跌破支撑均线系统主要是空头排列

270
00:11:37,769 --> 00:11:39,269
均线开口向下

271
00:11:39,269 --> 00:11:42,029
所以只能说这是一个空头趋势

272
00:11:42,029 --> 00:11:45,299
空头趋势中下跌比上涨容易

273
00:11:45,299 --> 00:11:46,820
而且之前我们说

274
00:11:46,820 --> 00:11:50,259
POTR是特斯拉以外最大的散户集中地

275
00:11:50,259 --> 00:11:52,659
散户多了乌合之众

276
00:11:52,659 --> 00:11:55,460
他的机构持股比例才56%

277
00:11:55,460 --> 00:11:58,440
有44%的筹码在散户手上

278
00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:00,980
这个就增加了股票的波动性

279
00:12:00,980 --> 00:12:04,340
还有观众问个股投降买指数

280
00:12:04,340 --> 00:12:07,899
那你说的买指数ETF是啥时候买

281
00:12:07,899 --> 00:12:09,940
任何时候都可以买吗

282
00:12:09,940 --> 00:12:12,340
有没有像买个股一样看点位

283
00:12:12,340 --> 00:12:15,600
看大盘的过去几十年

284
00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:17,820
美股指数看起来都是在上涨

285
00:12:17,820 --> 00:12:20,009
中间有几次重大回撤

286
00:12:20,009 --> 00:12:21,850
如果在那几波里面买

287
00:12:21,850 --> 00:12:24,350
最高位也是可以亏损一半

288
00:12:24,350 --> 00:12:26,089
有时候还不止啊

289
00:12:26,089 --> 00:12:27,048
叫人无脑

290
00:12:27,048 --> 00:12:29,208
天天买的那肯定是旺季了

291
00:12:29,208 --> 00:12:32,409
大盘暴跌起来也是非常吓人的

292
00:12:32,409 --> 00:12:34,980
最好的方法是定投

293
00:12:34,980 --> 00:12:37,059
就按时间按量买

294
00:12:37,059 --> 00:12:39,200
比如一个月买500块

295
00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:41,179
涨了买的股数少

296
00:12:41,179 --> 00:12:42,419
但趋势好

297
00:12:42,419 --> 00:12:44,169
买入后容易盈利

298
00:12:44,169 --> 00:12:46,889
跌了可以多买0.0几股

299
00:12:46,889 --> 00:12:48,429
股数多一点哈

300
00:12:48,429 --> 00:12:51,269
只要后面V型反转就赚了

301
00:12:51,269 --> 00:12:54,250
如果抱着资金等几年一次的大回调

302
00:12:54,250 --> 00:12:57,099
那你得像巴菲特那样淡定啊

303
00:12:57,099 --> 00:12:59,178
好今天的节目就分享到这里

304
00:12:59,178 --> 00:12:59,859
感谢大家收看

305
00:12:59,859 --> 00:13:01,879
我们下期节目再见拜拜

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