BV1Yi7465ECy · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:00,760 嘿 2 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:01,060 大家好 3 00:00:01,060 --> 00:00:02,120 我是尼科尔·本奇曼 4 00:00:02,120 --> 00:00:03,839 这里是Seeking Alpha的主持人 5 00:00:03,839 --> 00:00:07,698 今天将为大家带来与斯蒂文·克雷斯的每周评级节目 6 00:00:07,698 --> 00:00:12,140 接下来我们将快速带来市场洞察分析 7 00:00:12,140 --> 00:00:13,380 今天的节目 8 00:00:13,380 --> 00:00:16,019 我有幸邀请到了斯蒂文·克雷斯 9 00:00:16,019 --> 00:00:19,179 Seeking Alpha的量化策略副总裁 10 00:00:19,179 --> 00:00:21,500 非常感谢您今天抽空加入我们 11 00:00:21,500 --> 00:00:22,460 很高兴来到这里 12 00:00:22,460 --> 00:00:23,660 非常感谢您的组织安排 13 00:00:23,660 --> 00:00:25,519 一如既往地 14 00:00:25,519 --> 00:00:28,359 相信大家都知道斯蒂文·克雷斯是谁 15 00:00:28,359 --> 00:00:29,500 如果还不清楚的话 16 00:00:29,500 --> 00:00:31,800 他是我们网站众多优秀产品的幕后推手 17 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:34,268 包括我们平台上的许多优质产品 18 00:00:34,268 --> 00:00:37,390 Alpha Picks的Pro Quad投资组合 19 00:00:37,390 --> 00:00:41,009 我们新推出的量化与收入增长组合 20 00:00:41,009 --> 00:00:43,590 如果您对此感兴趣 21 00:00:43,590 --> 00:00:44,229 请继续 22 00:00:44,229 --> 00:00:47,170 深入了解具体内容 23 00:00:47,170 --> 00:00:47,390 斯蒂文 24 00:00:47,390 --> 00:00:50,590 我想直接切入正题讨论 25 00:00:50,590 --> 00:00:53,109 你们屏幕上看到的内容 26 00:00:53,109 --> 00:01:02,759 半导体指数在过去几个月经历了历史罕见的单日大幅上涨 27 00:01:02,759 --> 00:01:04,640 基于此 28 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:05,409 你明白的 29 00:01:05,409 --> 00:01:07,870 这种市场表现表明 30 00:01:07,870 --> 00:01:11,069 可能处于顶部或底部附近 31 00:01:11,069 --> 00:01:16,540 量化数据如何帮助投资者理解 32 00:01:16,540 --> 00:01:19,379 当前极端波动的原因 33 00:01:19,379 --> 00:01:22,870 在AI数据中心建设热潮中 34 00:01:23,269 --> 00:01:23,969 毫无疑问 35 00:01:23,969 --> 00:01:26,329 正在进行大规模数据中心建设 36 00:01:26,329 --> 00:01:27,629 主要受益方 37 00:01:27,629 --> 00:01:32,209 从量化角度而言是半导体企业 38 00:01:32,209 --> 00:01:38,530 我通常不关注自上而下的图表分析 39 00:01:38,530 --> 00:01:41,209 我更关注企业实际表现 40 00:01:41,209 --> 00:01:45,069 以及其盈利预测的量化分析 41 00:01:45,069 --> 00:01:46,890 以MU公司为例 42 00:01:46,890 --> 00:01:47,890 我们需要观察 43 00:01:47,890 --> 00:01:49,730 该股的估值与行业对比 44 00:01:49,730 --> 00:01:51,450 增长性与行业对比 45 00:01:51,450 --> 00:01:53,299 盈利能力在行业中的位置 46 00:01:53,299 --> 00:01:56,340 存在大量可供参考的图表 47 00:01:56,340 --> 00:01:57,640 这些可能是自上而下的分析图表 48 00:01:57,640 --> 00:01:59,819 但可能产生误导 49 00:01:59,819 --> 00:02:03,260 整个信息技术行业 50 00:02:03,260 --> 00:02:06,159 正在经历革命性变革 51 00:02:06,159 --> 00:02:13,080 这基本上比互联网在科技泡沫时期出现时还要大 52 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:14,099 首先 53 00:02:14,099 --> 00:02:16,969 这些公司实际上都有真实的营收和利润 54 00:02:16,969 --> 00:02:20,750 我们从量化角度观察的是什么是真实的 55 00:02:20,750 --> 00:02:22,849 这就是我们分析的重点 56 00:02:24,330 --> 00:02:24,930 好的 57 00:02:24,930 --> 00:02:25,550 嗯 58 00:02:25,550 --> 00:02:30,949 你也提到美光科技是不可阻挡的 59 00:02:30,949 --> 00:02:32,530 目前强烈推荐买入 60 00:02:40,569 --> 00:02:46,939 为什么这只股票成为关键结构性差异点 61 00:02:46,939 --> 00:02:51,259 与其他传统计算芯片厂商相比 62 00:02:51,500 --> 00:02:51,979 嗯 63 00:02:51,979 --> 00:02:53,780 什么让美光脱颖而出 64 00:02:53,780 --> 00:02:58,810 过去他们更像一家传统半导体公司 65 00:02:58,810 --> 00:03:03,338 但他们成功占据了有利位置并实现规模化 66 00:03:03,338 --> 00:03:04,739 因此 67 00:03:04,739 --> 00:03:05,778 在某种程度上 68 00:03:05,778 --> 00:03:07,590 作为传统芯片企业 69 00:03:07,590 --> 00:03:11,889 其估值实际上比整个行业更便宜 70 00:03:11,889 --> 00:03:14,659 我们查看右侧的因素评级 71 00:03:14,659 --> 00:03:19,300 显示B+级评级，这些评级均基于行业对比 72 00:03:19,300 --> 00:03:23,400 能即时展示公司与行业的相对位置 73 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:25,020 从价值角度看 74 00:03:25,020 --> 00:03:28,240 估值低于行业，但在增长方面 75 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:29,180 达到A+级 76 00:03:29,180 --> 00:03:30,719 远强于行业 77 00:03:30,719 --> 00:03:33,689 盈利能力A+级远超行业 78 00:03:33,689 --> 00:03:36,550 动量和修正数据同样出色 79 00:03:36,550 --> 00:03:40,610 正是这些核心投资特征吸引我们 80 00:03:40,610 --> 00:03:43,430 归根结底是基本面分析 81 00:03:43,430 --> 00:03:44,090 嗯 82 00:03:44,090 --> 00:03:44,289 是的 83 00:03:44,289 --> 00:03:46,330 我们的四维分析正在全面评估 84 00:03:46,330 --> 00:03:47,280 嗯 85 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:52,159 在庞大股海中筛选优劣 86 00:03:52,159 --> 00:03:54,819 但显然美光和MU 87 00:03:54,819 --> 00:03:59,400 我们已识别该公司增长更快且估值更优 88 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:00,900 这就是我们选择美光的原因 89 00:04:00,900 --> 00:04:01,819 嗯 90 00:04:01,819 --> 00:04:02,099 真的 91 00:04:02,099 --> 00:04:06,199 在所有跟踪的科技公司幻灯片上 92 00:04:06,199 --> 00:04:07,180 这是第一 93 00:04:07,180 --> 00:04:07,520 嗯 94 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:09,169 这是529 95 00:04:09,169 --> 00:04:12,949 在IT领域排名第一 96 00:04:12,949 --> 00:04:14,810 但在半导体行业 97 00:04:14,810 --> 00:04:17,110 位居69家公司之首 98 00:04:17,110 --> 00:04:19,029 以下是相关数据 99 00:04:19,029 --> 00:04:19,410 嗯 100 00:04:19,410 --> 00:04:22,519 年收入增长率达百分之八十六 101 00:04:22,519 --> 00:04:24,538 相比行业平均水平的百分之十一 102 00:04:24,538 --> 00:04:28,918 未来三年至五年的长期计算基础上的每股收益增长率 103 00:04:28,918 --> 00:04:31,079 达到百分之百五十二 104 00:04:31,079 --> 00:04:33,279 相比行业平均水平的百分之十九 105 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:36,879 其净利润率高达百分之五百八十 106 00:04:36,879 --> 00:04:39,639 由此可见我们为何如此看好这家公司 107 00:04:39,639 --> 00:04:40,620 其规模 108 00:04:40,620 --> 00:04:41,538 其体量 109 00:04:41,538 --> 00:04:42,658 其估值 110 00:04:42,658 --> 00:04:43,478 而且它的增长 111 00:04:43,478 --> 00:04:44,059 呃 112 00:04:44,059 --> 00:04:45,538 远强于整个行业 113 00:04:47,139 --> 00:04:48,430 现在 114 00:04:48,430 --> 00:04:49,410 在我们离开之前 115 00:04:49,410 --> 00:04:49,790 史蒂夫 116 00:04:49,790 --> 00:04:51,810 我想谈谈阿尔法影业 117 00:04:51,810 --> 00:04:52,870 你知道的 118 00:04:52,870 --> 00:04:57,769 凭借这个投资组合，它持续跑赢更广泛的市场 119 00:04:57,769 --> 00:05:02,709 所以对于那些试图应对市场轮动的投资者 120 00:05:02,709 --> 00:05:03,589 你知道的 121 00:05:03,589 --> 00:05:05,470 任何可能出现的波动 122 00:05:05,470 --> 00:05:09,430 你能对我们平台上的这款产品说些什么 123 00:05:09,430 --> 00:05:09,970 你知道的 124 00:05:09,970 --> 00:05:14,680 这能向投资者说明如何维持这种超额表现 125 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:16,920 绝对如此，仅仅 126 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:17,500 呃 127 00:05:17,500 --> 00:05:20,060 从背景介绍并为您提供一些相关信息 128 00:05:20,060 --> 00:05:24,100 Alpha Picks 是我们四年前推出的产品 129 00:05:24,100 --> 00:05:29,230 我们使优质投资理念得以实现的方式是每月两次 130 00:05:29,230 --> 00:05:32,769 我们推出顶级量化强烈买入建议 131 00:05:32,769 --> 00:05:33,990 我们一直在这样做 132 00:05:33,990 --> 00:05:34,670 嗯，已经 133 00:05:34,670 --> 00:05:36,329 正如我之前所说已有四年之久 134 00:05:36,329 --> 00:05:38,730 目前投资组合中有约四十只股票 135 00:05:38,730 --> 00:05:43,379 我很高兴宣布美光科技已加入投资组合 136 00:05:43,379 --> 00:05:47,228 于2025年10月15日成功纳入 137 00:05:47,228 --> 00:05:48,369 在人们真正 138 00:05:48,369 --> 00:05:48,949 你知道的 139 00:05:48,949 --> 00:05:50,088 熟悉这只股票之前 140 00:05:50,088 --> 00:05:51,428 我们来得很早 141 00:05:51,428 --> 00:05:55,548 微米的回报率是四百四十四个百分点 142 00:05:55,548 --> 00:05:58,428 自从我们将其加入阿尔法精选投资组合后 143 00:05:58,428 --> 00:06:00,348 现在你可以看到整个投资组合的表现 144 00:06:00,348 --> 00:06:02,649 如果你看左上角 145 00:06:02,649 --> 00:06:08,209 阿尔法精选投资组合的全年回报率是百分之九十九 146 00:06:08,209 --> 00:06:11,370 相比之下标普在同一时期上涨了2.4% 147 00:06:11,370 --> 00:06:13,329 在最右侧的年内数据 148 00:06:13,329 --> 00:06:15,490 你会发现该投资组合上涨了四 149 00:06:15,490 --> 00:06:16,720 四点五个百分点 150 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,500 对比标普指数上涨9.49% 151 00:06:19,500 --> 00:06:22,920 自四年前成立以来周年纪念 152 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:26,300 阿尔法收益高达428% 153 00:06:26,300 --> 00:06:29,158 而标普仅上涨97% 154 00:06:29,158 --> 00:06:33,559 而让它脱颖而出的是我们识别出的股票如百奥德 155 00:06:33,559 --> 00:06:38,939 还有多只股票涨幅超100% 156 00:06:39,009 --> 00:06:40,170 除了美光科技 157 00:06:40,170 --> 00:06:43,639 我们还有少数股票涨幅达1000% 158 00:06:43,639 --> 00:06:45,079 这是一款优秀的产品 159 00:06:45,079 --> 00:06:45,639 当然 160 00:06:45,639 --> 00:06:46,699 并非所有股票都成功 161 00:06:46,699 --> 00:06:47,660 存在一些亏损股 162 00:06:47,660 --> 00:06:50,319 但从历史业绩来看 163 00:06:50,319 --> 00:06:50,759 呃 164 00:06:50,759 --> 00:06:51,519 我们做得非常出色 165 00:06:51,519 --> 00:06:55,360 美光科技正是我们筛选的典型股票 166 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:56,160 谢谢大家 167 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:57,720 感谢史蒂夫今日参与 168 00:06:57,720 --> 00:06:59,500 以及所有收听的朋友们 169 00:06:59,500 --> 00:07:00,790 我们即将结束 170 00:07:00,790 --> 00:07:03,230 务必去研究美光科技 171 00:07:03,230 --> 00:07:06,240 关注史蒂夫并查看阿尔法精选 172 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:08,240 看看是否适合您的投资组合 173 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:10,689 我们下次再见 174 00:07:10,689 --> 00:07:12,089 简要说明事项 175 00:07:12,089 --> 00:07:14,670 过往业绩不预示未来结果 176 00:07:14,670 --> 00:07:17,300 内容仅作信息参考 177 00:07:17,300 --> 00:07:18,740 除非另有说明 178 00:07:18,740 --> 00:07:24,220 所有视频参与者均为第三方 179 00:07:24,220 --> 00:07:29,079 包括专业投资者和散户 180 00:07:29,079 --> 00:07:32,788 观点可能不代表整体Seeking Alpha立场 181 00:07:32,788 --> 00:07:33,728 内容准确性 182 00:07:33,728 --> 00:07:36,069 完整性无法保证 183 00:07:36,069 --> 00:07:39,899 Seeking Alpha未考虑您的投资目标 184 00:07:39,899 --> 00:07:42,220 不提供个性化投资建议 185 00:07:42,220 --> 00:07:44,720 Seeking Alpha非持牌证券商 186 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:45,199 经纪商 187 00:07:45,199 --> 00:07:45,459 U 188 00:07:45,459 --> 00:07:45,639 S 189 00:07:45,639 --> 00:07:47,939 投资顾问或投行 190 00:07:47,939 --> 00:07:49,019 我们下次再见
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