【The Motley Fool】现金流狂赚10亿！网络安全巨头：年化收益15%靠谱吗？

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欢迎最新混搭组合

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完整积分榜

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我正按计划进行

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我们有长期的笨蛋托比·博德尔松和杰森·霍尔

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为初级隐藏宝石数据库中前五十的股票打1到10分评级

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这是堡垒之夜的股票代码

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F T比率

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堡垒之夜业务的实力

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包括行业和竞争等因素

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十分意味着无敌

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一分意味着无望

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你们俩都是八分托比

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是的

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我喜欢堡垒之夜

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跨多个行业的广泛客户基础

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这里拥有多样化的专利组合和产品线

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这是一家根深蒂固的网络安全公司，为客户提供关键服务

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但公司在营收方面仍然非常强劲

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嗯，还有增长所需的建筑

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该行业竞争非常激烈

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不过存在转换成本对吧

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确实如此

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但重大失误可能会让客户转向其他公司

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需要持续创新

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亚当至少要保持现状

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你得与同行保持竞争力

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是的

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这是网络与安全领域的领导者

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涵盖硬件、软件和服务

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嗯

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托比提到转换成本

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这是一项非常稳固的业务

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在AI时代可能更加稳固

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嗯

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创始人带领的卓越盈利记录

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自上市以来每年都实现盈利

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同时仍在投入必要研发费用

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其中一位创始人是首席技术官

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另一位CEO

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嗯

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他们还在进行小型并购

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这些将增强技术并巩固其领先地位

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在管理团队的竞争中

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网球手沃伦·巴菲特

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一个是荷马

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辛普森杰森已显露底牌

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他给管理层打九分托比打八分

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是的

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我喜欢这个管理团队

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嗯

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我们还有两位联合创始人仍在公司任职

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一个是首席执行官

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另一个是首席技术官

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这很棒，但不止他们两人对吧

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呃

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首席运营官或首席运营官

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约翰·惠特尔

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已在公司工作十八年

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首席信息安全官也是如此

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卡尔·温索尔对吧

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这个团队经验丰富

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非常有经验

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长期稳定

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你的想象力加上出色业绩

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看到这个我很高兴

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是的

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出色的业绩记录

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我认为这很重要

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因为有很多长期

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任职多年的管理团队为股东创造了平庸的回报

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我们经常讨论创始人领导的公司

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创始人与公司表现之间确实存在关联

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像公司与超额收益

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但这并非绝对保证

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也不一定是因果关系

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但以肯和迈克尔·谢为例

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我们看到了使命驱动创始人的完美组合

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经营的是一家略具颠覆性的业务

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而且他们实际上是非常优秀的运营者

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我喜欢关注自由现金流指标

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嗯

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目前利润率和各项指标都很出色

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这还有周期性优势

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但真正开始增长是在2018年

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尽管AI很强大

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他们所做的是

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聚焦业务战略以提升利润率

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长期规划

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呃

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当前趋势

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他们明智之处在于公司转型时

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从

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他们正达到自由现金流的关键拐点

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立即启动股票回购

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从那时起

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也就是2018年左右

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流通股减少了18%

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嗯

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有趣的是还发生了

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业务持续变得更盈利

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过去七年里回购了18%的股份后

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资产负债表上的现金也在持续增长

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我全都有了

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呃

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在金融领域

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十分稳固

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一分为二

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杰森评了八分

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托比

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你得了九分

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是的

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我喜欢这里的财务状况

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我有五亿美元债务

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全部都是

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我有两亿多

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两亿美元现金和一亿美元短期投资

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还有大约三亿美元

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以及长期投资

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这流动性非常充足

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呃

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当机会出现时几乎可以随心所欲

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我看短期内不会改变

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第一季度自由现金流达十亿美元

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真的非常棒

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布鲁金斯的强劲营收和增长

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嗯

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很难想象还有比这更好的财务状况

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坦白说

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是的

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我同意这个观点

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但另一方面

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我不想像之前说的那样

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过度归功于恰逢其时的业务布局

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在AI时代抓住网络与安全的机遇

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但确实如此

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我们正在提升利润率

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仅仅因为需求增加

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再加上软件业务占比上升

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管理层

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应被认可成功转型业务

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从硬件转向软件导向

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尽管可能方向有变

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嗯

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由于技术挑战

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但核心问题在于

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关键点在于

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谈到

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财务状况

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管理层在执行强化业务计划上极为严谨

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这也是周期向好的原因

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这确实导致了

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越好你就能

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单位经济效益

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更好的利润率和更好的现金流，比如

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呃

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比如托比提到的首个季度自由现金流超十亿美元

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呃

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第一季度

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这是单季度最高纪录

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他们可能在2026年底

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账上现金将远超以往

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他们开始时

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有点希望

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情况确实如此

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我不希望他们现在股价高位时过度回购股票

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但股价目前处于高位

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我们稍后讨论

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是的

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超强基本面

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让我们谈谈估值问题杰森

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短期持有是否安全

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如同购买彩票

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是的

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我的预期

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呃

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10%到15%

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呃

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年化回报率

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可能处于下限

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安全评分仍是6分

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这是我热爱的业务

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我非常紧握自己的股份

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这里有个有趣的现象

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尽管我提到市盈率略显 stretched（12倍）

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基于营收的市销率

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这是罕见的科技股案例

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当前市销率比2021年更低

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当时市场较为疯狂

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但股价仍大幅上涨

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我的担忧是

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这是一家成熟业务

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但正在快速增长

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由于需求超级周期

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这些风险并非零

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风险因素

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存在表现不佳风险

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我认为亏损风险不大

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但确实存在表现不及预期的风险

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但就像我之前说的

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我肯定不会很快抛售我的股份

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是的

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我也是同样的情况

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我打算投入百分之十到十五

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我觉得这大概能跑赢市场

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从这里开始

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我不指望有什么疯狂的表现

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不过

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在安全性方面

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我也是六分

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估值看起来有点高

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但考虑到业绩表现

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他们的财务

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这绝对不算疯狂

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嗯

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仍然在那里

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这里有一个重大

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存在大幅下跌的小风险

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暂时性的

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如果你遇到一个令人失望的季度财报

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因为这些公司往往就是这样发展的

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感谢托比和杰森

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他们给堡垒之夜打了非常高的综合评分七分

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十分制中的七分

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合乎情理

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正如你所知

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我们在魔力法则非常看好创始人主导的企业

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尤其是当创始人是一对兄弟时

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彼得比更青睐CrowdStrike

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留意每个交易日七点的最新评分

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东部时间

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接下来是Train Technologies 本期全部结束

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说中了

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终于

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给我足够的安全网

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我就能在钢丝上行走

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