【NaNa说美股】20260629养老金卖完了吗？

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股今天是6月29号

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周一刚刚过去的周末

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美伊双方又掐起来了哈

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美国放欢的要让伊朗政权勾带伊朗呢

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回敬要把美国送进地狱

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霍尔木兹海峡还在排队等着离开的船瑟瑟发抖

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结果就在期货市场开盘前一个小时

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双方突然一拍大腿

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先不打了

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让船继续走

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明天周二去卡塔尔那边碰面接着捞

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于是美股期货盘前嗖的一声就拉起来了

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标普500指数今天高开后

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早盘第一次试探上方缺口的下沿阻力时

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被一波沉重的抛压给当头一棒打回原形

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甚至一度转跌

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大家都怀疑啊

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可能是养老金在卖

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据说这两天

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美国养老金呢要集中减持

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约300亿美元的美国股票

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转手去买债券

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今年大盘高开给市场提供了极佳的流动性

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对于养老金算法来说

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高开就是最好的验货哈

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也是最丰厚的利润垫

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这也是为什么当时砸盘的力量呢极其的沉重

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但是多头在7350点守住了支撑

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随后反弹卖压很快就被粉底买入资金给吸收了

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最后三大股指全线上扬

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科技股最为强势

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那只能大涨2%

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标普500收涨1.18%

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道指呢也蹭到了0.59%的涨幅

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市场内个股涨多跌少

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别看整个6月大盘跌的鼻青脸肿哈

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其实市场的管度一直在改善

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目前64.5%的标普500成份股

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都已经处于200日均线上方

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高于上周的60.4%

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这种指数往下个股往上的积极背离

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说明6月份的下跌只是一次健康的内部轮动

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而不是在注定

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上周指数额都跌破50日均线了哈

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今天这么一涨

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不仅重新站上了这条中期均线

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还直接把上方的缺口给回补了大半

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每次市场跌的太深

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差点破位的时候

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就会出现一条积极的新闻头条来救市

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这当然不是巧合

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背后都是川宝在划线

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今天多头攻势猛烈的

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让我有一种今天就已经是7月1号的错觉哈

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看来很多人把这两天养老金砸出的坑呢

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都视为7月暴涨行情前最后的低吸机会

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所以都拼命的这个进场抄底

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对于7月行情的乐观情绪已经提前溢出了啊

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但这种乐观也是有依据

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因为现在的标普百指数

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远期市盈率呢只有20.1倍

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比5年均值的19.9

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和10年均值的19倍都高

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那么一丢丢

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这个估值到底贵不贵

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那得看两个毛

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一个呢是利率水平

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另一个是企业盈利增速

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而不是P1数字本身哈

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目前市场对于利率路径还在扯皮

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但是对于企业盈利

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那是集体开了高光滤镜的

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高盛和彭博行业研究都预计

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这个二季度

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每股企业盈利增幅将会狂飙

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22%到23%

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接近今年一季度的亮眼表现

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美银更是直言

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第二季度将会成为AI红利

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有硬件垄断向全产业链扩散的里程碑

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不仅英伟达继续数钱

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数到手抽筋

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电力能源

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传统服务器组装

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甚至工业金融

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如果这一波利润暴涨能够兑现的话

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那么当下这个20.1倍的估值水平不仅不贵

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甚至还很有性价比嗯

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配合市场广度的改善

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确实咱们也不能够再粗暴的把AI当成

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2000年的互联网泡沫来砸哈

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唯一的硬伤呢还是那个老问题

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就是大哥们砸了千亿美元买硬件

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后面到底能不能变成实打实的收入

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在这么一片欢乐预期中

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只有大摩和小摩在旁边泼冷水

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大魔说

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如果这个季度云巨头们啊继续闭眼砸钱买单

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但是下游做软件

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医疗零售的那些弟兄们还是无法在财报中证明

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AI已经帮公司赚到了真金白银的话

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那现在的科技股AI溢价就是海市蜃楼哈

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等财报季一过

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市场很容易就陷入利好出境的剧烈修正

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而小模呢也表示

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二季度标普500的利润看似光鲜

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但全靠油价暴涨

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给能源巨头送温暖

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如果财报一旦证实了消费品

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航空物流板块的利润率严重萎缩的话

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这会逼着美联储维持高利率更久的时间

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对于第三季度的美股估值呢

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会来一场钝刀子割肉的隐形绞杀

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咱们听话听音哈

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高盛大小摩美音他们呢其实都说了真话

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但是都只说了半句

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如果把他们的话给拼到一起

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那才是未来一两个月行情的终极通关密码

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就是这个第二季度的财报季很强劲

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是真的

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但是财报季结束后

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美股市场要进行剧烈修正

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也是真的

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在实际操作策略上呢

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这就意味着在这个呃Q2财报季揭晓之前哈

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市场会接着奏乐

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接着舞

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就是嗯乐观情绪会笼罩这个市场

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但是等财报季结束之后

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就要随时准备跑路了

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从历史季节性规律来看

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这个策略呢也完全站得住脚

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因为7月1向是美股表现最为强势的月份之一

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尤其是7月的上半旬哈

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就前两周是全年最强劲的多日上涨区间之一

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就会这个呃

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这两周会出现连续的上涨

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根据三雕的数据

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自1985年以来

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纳指100

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在7月上半月上涨的概率高达76%

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平均回报率2.2%

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这种现象呢主要是有年终大量资金流入

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新季度出的资金部署

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以及独立日假期前席卷华尔街的爱国乐观情绪

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所推动的

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谁说华尔街不爱国啊

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华尔街很爱国的好吧

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如果历史规律这次不掉链子的话

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那么6月份的回调哈

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正好是在7月上半旬的行情深蹲蓄力了呃

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所以这个未来两周走势呢逻辑很清晰

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方向就是偏多

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无论是看玄学的历史季节性啊也好

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还是看这个务实的财报基本面嗯

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虽然局势仍存在变数哈

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如果出现了宏观消息的冲击

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或者呢每一局势突然恶化

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人脑子打出狗脑子来

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那历史规律也得给这种宏观利空事件让路

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呃但股市就是这样子的啦

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永远都是机会伴随风险的

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哪有百分之百让你赚的是吧

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总是要这个十二十%的

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小概率事件的可能性

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明天呢是6月份的收官日

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也是上半年的这个收官日哈

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盘中很可能会再次出现资金博弈

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因为今天的市场普涨

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证明了多头的承接力极强啊

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这反而给养老金明天继续出货呢

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创造了极好的高位环境

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所以多空双方在明天尾盘和盘中的争夺

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只会比今天更精彩

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费半指数今天反弹了3.8%

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三

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成份股可以说是满屏飘绿

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领涨的全是一般造锄头的AI基础设施股票啊

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这也难怪

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既然中游的科技巨头们

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和这个上游的那个存储厂

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正在为了利润分赃不匀

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撕破脸

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那聪明且不愿在两者的拉锯战中当炮灰哈

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一拍大腿

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资金直接就往更上游的板块扩散

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比如这个提供连接芯片的阿拉伯

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以及三大半导体设备商嗯

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应用材料

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这个LRCX呃

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科雷等等

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无论是最后苹果赢还是存储厂赢哈

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反正AI数据中心还得接着盖

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芯片层数呢还得接着堆

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那用最上游设备的确定性来对冲

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这个中上游撕逼的不确定性

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如果存储厂商们顶不住巨头们的压力

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被逼着砸钱扩产

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那他们赚到的暴利

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最终会有相当一部分

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要以采购设备的形式吐给这个呃应用材料

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L r c x

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还有科雷

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这表明华尔街并没有放弃AI赛道

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只是完成了一次理性的仓位轮动

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作为风暴中心

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美光科技

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今天在盘中呢演了一出惊心动魄的高空蹦极哈

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日内一度被砸

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升跌近10%

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直接跌穿了月线

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就在空头们准备开香槟的时候呢

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他又这个绝地大反击

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硬生生拉回到了5日均线上方

216
00:09:42,419 --> 00:09:44,820
最终抹去了日内全部跌幅哈

217
00:09:44,820 --> 00:09:46,970
还收涨了1.14%

218
00:09:46,970 --> 00:09:51,490
所以这说明信仰仍在空头被碾压了

219
00:09:51,490 --> 00:09:52,970
不得不说嗯

220
00:09:52,970 --> 00:09:56,950
有时候吧苹果的江湖地位呢摆在那儿

221
00:09:56,950 --> 00:09:58,590
他只要一拍桌子哈

222
00:09:58,590 --> 00:10:00,059
不管有理没理

223
00:10:00,059 --> 00:10:02,960
存储板块都得先抖三抖

224
00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:04,879
空头们呢也闻风而动

225
00:10:04,879 --> 00:10:09,578
比如高盛连夜就洋洋洒洒的写了一篇小作文

226
00:10:09,578 --> 00:10:13,678
一口气给存储板块列了三大罪状呃

227
00:10:13,678 --> 00:10:15,830
一是HBM涨不动了

228
00:10:15,830 --> 00:10:20,149
二呢是长鑫存储等中国友商要来抢饭碗了

229
00:10:20,149 --> 00:10:23,220
三是AI服务器投资要失速了

230
00:10:23,220 --> 00:10:24,179
最后定调啊

231
00:10:24,179 --> 00:10:25,919
这可不是短期波动哈

232
00:10:25,919 --> 00:10:29,220
存储这个呃情况是结构性危机

233
00:10:29,220 --> 00:10:30,139
不仅如此啊

234
00:10:30,139 --> 00:10:32,940
今天盘前还飞出了一只黑天鹅嗯

235
00:10:32,940 --> 00:10:34,179
就有媒体报道说

236
00:10:34,179 --> 00:10:37,620
有14个消费者和三家电脑零售商呢

237
00:10:37,620 --> 00:10:41,740
突然对三星海力士还有美观发起了集体诉讼

238
00:10:41,740 --> 00:10:44,720
控告他们操纵drum市场

239
00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:46,279
限制供应合法

240
00:10:46,279 --> 00:10:47,740
掐脖子涨价

241
00:10:47,740 --> 00:10:49,940
别看原告人丁稀少哈

242
00:10:49,940 --> 00:10:52,259
在美国这种集体诉讼制度下

243
00:10:52,259 --> 00:10:53,179
一旦打赢了

244
00:10:53,179 --> 00:10:54,909
所有消费者都可以获赔

245
00:10:54,909 --> 00:10:57,009
感觉这个事情背后不简单啊

246
00:10:57,009 --> 00:10:57,629
水很深

247
00:10:57,629 --> 00:10:59,169
有苹果的推手呀

248
00:10:59,169 --> 00:11:01,370
官司能不能赢不重要哈

249
00:11:01,370 --> 00:11:05,049
重要的是在舆论上先把存储厂给批臭

250
00:11:05,049 --> 00:11:07,330
更觉得是英国金融时报

251
00:11:07,330 --> 00:11:08,029
还有犯风

252
00:11:08,029 --> 00:11:08,389
称

253
00:11:08,389 --> 00:11:10,250
苹果呢为了不当冤大头

254
00:11:10,250 --> 00:11:13,450
正向美国政府高层紧急游说

255
00:11:13,450 --> 00:11:18,818
哭喊着要豁免采购中国长鑫存储的DARM芯片

256
00:11:18,818 --> 00:11:22,719
这一招其实就和前些天这个微软放出风声

257
00:11:22,719 --> 00:11:25,499
说要采用deep seek来制衡OpenAI

258
00:11:25,499 --> 00:11:26,440
如出一辙哈

259
00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:28,320
本质上就是你要是再跪

260
00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:29,799
我就要用平替了啊

261
00:11:29,799 --> 00:11:33,019
目的呢就是逼迫对方上谈判桌

262
00:11:33,019 --> 00:11:34,919
现在的问题其实也不是

263
00:11:34,919 --> 00:11:37,679
苹果与美观科技的私人恩怨

264
00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:43,110
而是中游那四家云大厂的的态度嗯

265
00:11:43,110 --> 00:11:48,090
是否他们就不愿再继续当存储厂商的提款机了

266
00:11:48,090 --> 00:11:50,990
这个苹果砸厂是不是呃

267
00:11:50,990 --> 00:11:52,490
他们代表出头

268
00:11:52,490 --> 00:11:54,909
不过无论巨头们怎么想哈

269
00:11:54,909 --> 00:11:58,500
短期内的现实呢就是美观

270
00:11:58,500 --> 00:11:59,600
SK海力士

271
00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:04,279
三星这三家存储巨头仍拥有绝对定价权

272
00:12:04,279 --> 00:12:06,059
云大厂骂归骂

273
00:12:06,059 --> 00:12:07,100
身体很诚实

274
00:12:07,100 --> 00:12:09,419
还得乖乖的排队送钱

275
00:12:09,419 --> 00:12:13,240
这也解释了为什么美国股价每次砸出深坑

276
00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:15,980
总有抄底资金进去增香

277
00:12:15,980 --> 00:12:19,548
但是那这种情况如果一直这么继续下去

278
00:12:19,548 --> 00:12:20,948
中期也是个隐患

279
00:12:20,948 --> 00:12:25,110
因为中下游的强烈不满呢正在积累

280
00:12:25,110 --> 00:12:26,830
甚至嗯这些巨头们

281
00:12:26,830 --> 00:12:31,090
可能呃这个对于存储厂商们的对立情绪啊

282
00:12:31,090 --> 00:12:33,580
超过了对英伟达的忌惮了

283
00:12:33,580 --> 00:12:35,899
万一哪天某个云巨头

284
00:12:35,899 --> 00:12:38,299
真的因为投资回报率撑不住

285
00:12:38,299 --> 00:12:42,078
率先削减了20272028年的资本开支

286
00:12:42,078 --> 00:12:46,418
那整个AI产业链哈就会瞬间连锁破裂

287
00:12:46,418 --> 00:12:48,559
火烧连营700里

288
00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:51,139
到时候存储厂受到的反噬

289
00:12:51,139 --> 00:12:53,720
那绝对比云巨头还要惨烈的哈

290
00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:56,950
但这个是呃最坏最坏的情况了

291
00:12:56,950 --> 00:12:58,490
大家都是体面人嘛

292
00:12:58,490 --> 00:13:01,089
最后大概率还是会各退一步

293
00:13:01,089 --> 00:13:02,629
利益均沾哈

294
00:13:02,629 --> 00:13:06,169
存储的新厂能建起来最少要两三年

295
00:13:06,169 --> 00:13:10,070
现在就搁这儿去炒作这个焦虑

296
00:13:10,070 --> 00:13:11,570
价格放缓了

297
00:13:11,570 --> 00:13:12,870
供大于求啦

298
00:13:12,870 --> 00:13:14,929
那纯属杞人忧天

299
00:13:14,929 --> 00:13:17,330
华尔街这帮人呢365天

300
00:13:17,330 --> 00:13:19,330
每天都在多空反水

301
00:13:19,330 --> 00:13:21,169
上涨的时候有上涨的理由

302
00:13:21,169 --> 00:13:23,110
下跌的时候有下跌的理由

303
00:13:23,110 --> 00:13:24,739
尤其是高盛嗯

304
00:13:24,739 --> 00:13:27,438
那些话咱们一句都不要去听去信

305
00:13:27,438 --> 00:13:29,798
只要动能还没有彻底死透

306
00:13:29,798 --> 00:13:31,960
这个存储板块的

307
00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:37,299
今年年内啊暴跌一律按照洗盘来看待哈来处理

308
00:13:37,299 --> 00:13:40,399
今天太空概念股集体开挂了

309
00:13:40,399 --> 00:13:41,820
space x的确认

310
00:13:41,820 --> 00:13:44,460
将于7月7号被正式纳入

311
00:13:44,460 --> 00:13:46,039
纳斯达克100指数市场

312
00:13:46,039 --> 00:13:48,899
预计这次调整能够强行吸金

313
00:13:48,899 --> 00:13:50,970
43亿美元的被动卖盘

314
00:13:50,970 --> 00:13:51,889
与此同时

315
00:13:51,889 --> 00:13:55,240
SPACEX最近刚发了250亿美的大额债券

316
00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:57,220
虽然抢购的人挤破了头

317
00:13:57,220 --> 00:13:58,799
但据说发完之后

318
00:13:58,799 --> 00:14:01,299
债券价格居然光速破发

319
00:14:01,299 --> 00:14:03,720
把一众交易员们都给跌碎了眼镜

320
00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:05,539
这可能也解释了它的股价

321
00:14:05,539 --> 00:14:09,328
为什么最近就走出火箭回收的K线

322
00:14:09,328 --> 00:14:13,668
特许通讯CHTR股价今天日内高开低走

323
00:14:13,668 --> 00:14:15,609
盘前暴涨28%

324
00:14:15,609 --> 00:14:17,299
盘中持续回落

325
00:14:17,299 --> 00:14:19,620
涨幅收窄到9.4%

326
00:14:19,620 --> 00:14:24,059
公司宣布与SPACEX勾搭移动通信合作

327
00:14:24,059 --> 00:14:27,000
作为美国宽带界的地头蛇哈

328
00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:31,200
特许通讯打算用自己的地面基建去搬SPACEX

329
00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:34,179
分担卫星手机的通信流量

330
00:14:34,179 --> 00:14:35,568
这要是谈成了

331
00:14:35,568 --> 00:14:36,969
那马斯克的星链

332
00:14:36,969 --> 00:14:39,889
直接就变成彻头彻尾的电信运营商了

333
00:14:39,889 --> 00:14:42,809
直接下层收割普通消费者

334
00:14:42,809 --> 00:14:46,710
rocket lab股价今天呢跳空大涨16%哈

335
00:14:46,710 --> 00:14:50,029
不枉我在上周92和85美元

336
00:14:50,029 --> 00:14:52,039
分批这个超了它

337
00:14:52,039 --> 00:14:56,559
公司宣布将以每股嗯54美元的价格

338
00:14:56,559 --> 00:15:01,470
通过现金与股票相结合的方式收购IRDM

339
00:15:01,470 --> 00:15:03,590
这一波战略混合呢

340
00:15:03,590 --> 00:15:07,149
会让working lab直接进化成全能战士哈

341
00:15:07,149 --> 00:15:10,129
从火箭发射卫星制造嗯

342
00:15:10,129 --> 00:15:15,009
频谱管理到在轨通信全产业链一条龙服务

343
00:15:15,009 --> 00:15:19,019
就真的把自己打想打造成一个小型的SPACEX了

344
00:15:19,019 --> 00:15:20,220
这股价表现呢

345
00:15:20,220 --> 00:15:20,700
也说明

346
00:15:20,700 --> 00:15:24,309
投资者应该是相当看好这个收购案与公司

347
00:15:24,309 --> 00:15:25,710
未来发展方向的

348
00:15:25,710 --> 00:15:28,830
被收购的IRDM股价今天也跟着躺赢

349
00:15:28,830 --> 00:15:30,849
暴涨了25.5%

350
00:15:30,849 --> 00:15:33,129
MST2股价连续大跌之后

351
00:15:33,129 --> 00:15:34,448
今天死猫跳哈

352
00:15:34,448 --> 00:15:36,279
股价涨了12.6%

353
00:15:36,279 --> 00:15:40,200
公司宣布要砸10亿美元来回购自家A类股票

354
00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:41,399
提振信心

355
00:15:41,399 --> 00:15:43,639
至于这10亿美元从哪来呢

356
00:15:43,639 --> 00:15:44,320
大家都懂

357
00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:47,559
无非就是卖点手头的比特币来套现

358
00:15:47,559 --> 00:15:49,860
按照MSTR的一贯尿性

359
00:15:49,860 --> 00:15:52,809
今天宣布回购10亿美元哈

360
00:15:52,809 --> 00:15:56,700
过几天可能就要宣布增发20亿美元去买币了

361
00:15:59,700 --> 00:16:03,220
只要能够熬到美联储降息放水

362
00:16:03,220 --> 00:16:06,568
就能够一直无限套娃的玩下去

363
00:16:06,568 --> 00:16:09,729
环球影城的母公司康卡斯特呢

364
00:16:09,729 --> 00:16:11,668
因为宣布重大分拆

365
00:16:11,668 --> 00:16:14,009
股价盘前一路狂飙了25%

366
00:16:14,009 --> 00:16:15,919
结果开盘后一路低走

367
00:16:15,919 --> 00:16:19,039
最终只勉强收涨4.5%

368
00:16:19,039 --> 00:16:19,279
三

369
00:16:19,279 --> 00:16:21,600
公司计划搞免税拆分

370
00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:23,359
把集团一分为二

371
00:16:23,359 --> 00:16:25,859
一个专注于传媒娱乐

372
00:16:25,859 --> 00:16:28,099
另外一个呢专攻通信技术

373
00:16:28,099 --> 00:16:31,379
现在有的股东两头拿股饼画的很大哈

374
00:16:31,379 --> 00:16:34,440
但是分拆预计要在一年内才能完成

375
00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:36,220
所以这个一年的大饼期

376
00:16:36,220 --> 00:16:40,750
显然让今天的短线资金呢选择先落袋为安了

377
00:16:40,750 --> 00:16:43,110
所以股价只持续回落嗯

378
00:16:43,110 --> 00:16:46,730
行今天我们就简单的说到这里

379
00:16:46,730 --> 00:16:50,029
那就让我们迎接明天6月收官日吧

380
00:16:50,029 --> 00:16:51,419
我们明天见拜拜

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