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投资创业和人生

BV1eGMe6rE8D · 全哥爱分享
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发布时间 2026-07-08 10:15
时长 14分11秒
播放 1016
点赞 33
评论 5
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原始字幕
1
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前两天分享的视频确实有点小情绪啊

2
00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:07,059
确实被一些价值观很差的人影响了心情啊

3
00:00:07,059 --> 00:00:09,019
本来呢啊我就讲嘛

4
00:00:09,019 --> 00:00:11,740
我说我分享投资呢就5年的时间啊

5
00:00:11,740 --> 00:00:12,880
现在已经4年多了

6
00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:14,179
就没打算这个事呢

7
00:00:14,179 --> 00:00:16,109
一直按照过去的方式去做

8
00:00:16,109 --> 00:00:17,730
本身我是做电商的啊

9
00:00:17,730 --> 00:00:19,870
做了16年电商啊

10
00:00:19,870 --> 00:00:22,829
到现在呢啊自己有自己的家电品牌啊

11
00:00:22,829 --> 00:00:24,870
有酒茶保健品品牌啊

12
00:00:24,870 --> 00:00:26,339
海外呢还有好几个品牌

13
00:00:26,339 --> 00:00:28,379
其实呢巴菲特说过一句话啊

14
00:00:28,379 --> 00:00:29,820
就像创业一样投资

15
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像投资一样创业

16
00:00:31,219 --> 00:00:32,740
因为那你懂公司

17
00:00:32,740 --> 00:00:33,939
你才能拿得住啊

18
00:00:33,939 --> 00:00:35,539
你才能买到合理的价格

19
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你才了解这个公司的管理层

20
00:00:37,039 --> 00:00:38,348
还有没有股东回报

21
00:00:38,348 --> 00:00:40,789
所以实际上我的研究逻辑呢

22
00:00:40,789 --> 00:00:42,709
就是通过深入行业哈

23
00:00:42,709 --> 00:00:43,829
比如说我做家电的

24
00:00:43,829 --> 00:00:45,709
那我对美的九阳苏泊尔啊

25
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先锋格力艾美特啊

26
00:00:47,299 --> 00:00:50,329
海尔海信TCL那比较熟悉

27
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因为你做这么多年呢

28
00:00:51,549 --> 00:00:53,590
你对他行业非常了解啊

29
00:00:53,590 --> 00:00:55,750
对他的这个数据后面的财务数据

30
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后面的一些真实的经营情况啊

31
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能看出来啊

32
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再比如说保健品啊

33
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保健品这个行业呢

34
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其实我是从做IP开始啊

35
00:01:03,588 --> 00:01:04,929
我就研究这个行业

36
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实际上研究完之后呢

37
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就发现了啊

38
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就是跨境保健品嘛还是个增长赛道

39
00:01:09,469 --> 00:01:11,430
这也是为什么当很多兄弟说权哥啊

40
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能不能买买套那杯件

41
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我说不要碰他

42
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那杯件真的啊

43
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你可以看我所有的分享

44
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我都说那时候我分享创投币建的时候

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创汇价还200多个亿啊

46
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没记错的话

47
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就两百三十十个亿吧

48
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那现在应该是很要攒了吧

49
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那当时我说你要是买特色配件

50
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你可以看一下这个建河啊

51
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AHA是国际控股嘛

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因为逻辑很简单嘛

53
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因为AHA是国际控股

54
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他是汤那边的两倍的销售额

55
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但是股价呢只有汤那边的1/3啊

56
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要不就是啊糖尿病院高估了啊

57
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要不就是建河呢低估了

58
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那这个逻辑你从财报简单的一算就知道

59
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那不可能

60
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那你这个差距这么大啊

61
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只有别人的1/3嘛

62
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那实际上呢最终的结果呢

63
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也是验证了我的观点哈

64
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就是我分享HH国控制的时候

65
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应该在11块多啊

66
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现在的话大概是15块左右吧

67
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那当然了呃

68
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国际控股呢一度跌到了十块钱左右啊

69
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就这个体验也不好

70
00:02:00,049 --> 00:02:01,890
但是呢整个保健品行业

71
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包括消费品行业呢体验都不好

72
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买

73
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AHA的国际股算是好的啊

74
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实际上我分享的逻辑是

75
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因为我从事这个行业

76
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我才能知道哈他的销售数据啊

77
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他的实际的品牌的占有率啊

78
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产品的竞争力啊

79
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包括这个赛道的啊估值啊高低啊

80
00:02:17,939 --> 00:02:21,489
啊财报的透明度就是很多东西呢别人看不到哈

81
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比如说负债率太高啊

82
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再比如说啊这个公司里面的这个啊应收账款啊

83
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啊包括他的营销费用啊

84
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啊到底哪个数据啊

85
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能够验证这个公司是有这种反转的可能性

86
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都是通过常年的做生意才能感觉到的啊

87
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跑了很多供应商啊

88
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在美国做了这几年投资哈

89
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哈在美国这一年呢跑了几十家保健品工厂啊

90
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包括啊基本上头部的那些品牌的代工厂啊

91
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咱都去过啊

92
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通过给他们工厂里的研发人员聊呢

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也知道哪些公司的产品啊是能够持续的啊

94
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包括政策的影响

95
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实际上这个呢就是巴菲特讲的像投资一样创业

96
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和创业一样投资

97
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你说如果说你脱离了一个行业

98
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脱离了这个公司的经营

99
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我们想去跟踪他其实并不容易

100
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因为你比如说啊

101
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你看我是原来步步高出来啊

102
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做了十几年的手机

103
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再也是为什么我对小米啊分析小米的时候

104
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我能讲到它的重点啊

105
00:03:14,580 --> 00:03:16,099
就是啊手机销量

106
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手机占有率啊

107
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包括这个家电的竞争格局哈

108
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包括呢这个啊小米的这个啊资源的分配情况啊

109
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甚至包括我通过自己做IP呢啊

110
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我也能够预测出来哈

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雷老板的这个IP的最终的结局

112
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实际上我在两年前我分享这个小米造车的时候

113
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我说啊造车呢肯定是个负资产啊

114
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那个时候呢大家骂声一片啊

115
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就大家觉得你凭什么说小米是负资产嘛

116
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那那汽车一个几10万哈

117
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他对这个手机的品牌帮助很大

118
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然后当时我说的很直白

119
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我说汽车这个行业的竞争啊比手机激烈多了

120
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你手机现在头部的就那么几家对吧

121
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那全球第一的三星

122
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那利润第一的是苹果对吧

123
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然后下面有VIVOOPPO小米啊

124
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华为荣耀实际上就那么几家

125
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那传音呢其实竞争力也不强

126
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那如果小米豪华做手机的话

127
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它的估值其实比现在还要高

128
00:04:02,569 --> 00:04:04,550
但是呢你的精力一旦分散了

129
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因为手机也好

130
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家电也好啊

131
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然后汽车也好

132
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都是竞争最激烈的行业

133
00:04:10,189 --> 00:04:11,629
我们做家电出身啊

134
00:04:11,629 --> 00:04:12,509
做手机这么多年

135
00:04:12,509 --> 00:04:13,500
做数码产品

136
00:04:13,500 --> 00:04:15,379
就是非常了解这个行业的竞争程度

137
00:04:15,379 --> 00:04:17,009
因为我们自己也做品牌嘛

138
00:04:17,009 --> 00:04:18,949
基本上竞争是无孔不入的

139
00:04:18,949 --> 00:04:22,110
而且头部的品牌呢都是三五十年的沉淀

140
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实力非常强

141
00:04:23,548 --> 00:04:26,189
就他们通过做工厂呢又能控制品质

142
00:04:26,189 --> 00:04:27,329
又能控制成本

143
00:04:27,329 --> 00:04:30,569
其实小米在这个供应链上沉淀是远远不足的

144
00:04:30,569 --> 00:04:33,389
而且随着这个IP的热度下滑

145
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还有两面性哈

146
00:04:34,689 --> 00:04:36,129
比如说哎你好的时候

147
00:04:36,129 --> 00:04:38,069
大家都会说你哎牛逼啊

148
00:04:38,069 --> 00:04:38,750
雷老板牛逼

149
00:04:38,750 --> 00:04:40,750
但当你但凡是不好的时候

150
00:04:40,750 --> 00:04:42,050
你的缺点也会被放大

151
00:04:42,050 --> 00:04:44,548
所以实际上我在去年年初

152
00:04:44,548 --> 00:04:45,588
包括前年我就说过

153
00:04:45,588 --> 00:04:48,629
我说雷老板那个IP会不会反噬城里的米粉

154
00:04:48,629 --> 00:04:49,490
会变成米黑

155
00:04:49,490 --> 00:04:51,810
实际上这个事也就过了一年就就反转了

156
00:04:51,810 --> 00:04:54,050
包括我分享了很多这个消费的个股啊

157
00:04:54,050 --> 00:04:57,430
都是基于自己从业这么多年的一个深度思考

158
00:04:57,430 --> 00:04:59,790
而不是说基于打单的炒股的逻辑啊

159
00:04:59,790 --> 00:05:02,189
实际上炒股呢我不是很擅长啊

160
00:05:02,189 --> 00:05:04,660
你特别是就玩这个科技的哈

161
00:05:04,660 --> 00:05:05,439
我的逻辑很简单

162
00:05:05,439 --> 00:05:07,740
就是便宜好公司买的便宜很讲道理

163
00:05:07,740 --> 00:05:08,529
多少钱回本

164
00:05:08,529 --> 00:05:11,410
我所有的这个逻辑呢都是基于这个观点啊

165
00:05:11,410 --> 00:05:13,488
就是你你同类的公司

166
00:05:13,488 --> 00:05:15,009
我买全球最好的对吧

167
00:05:15,009 --> 00:05:16,968
比如说你啊买这个GPU啊

168
00:05:16,968 --> 00:05:19,009
那那英伟达肯定最好买手机啊

169
00:05:19,009 --> 00:05:19,769
苹果最好啊

170
00:05:19,769 --> 00:05:21,220
买这个收车引擎啊

171
00:05:21,220 --> 00:05:22,060
大模型哎

172
00:05:22,060 --> 00:05:24,019
谷歌哈综合最强对吧

173
00:05:24,019 --> 00:05:25,860
买酒哈茅台最好啊

174
00:05:25,860 --> 00:05:26,740
买中概啊

175
00:05:26,740 --> 00:05:28,550
买那腾讯啊最好啊

176
00:05:28,550 --> 00:05:30,430
拼多多呢哈哈最低估啊

177
00:05:30,430 --> 00:05:34,540
再比如说这个哈买这个硬件类的是吧

178
00:05:34,540 --> 00:05:35,680
那你就买的便宜嘛

179
00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:36,639
你算算回本嘛

180
00:05:36,639 --> 00:05:37,800
那实在算不出来

181
00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:39,519
那压住这个赛道的话

182
00:05:39,519 --> 00:05:40,718
就从增速啊

183
00:05:40,718 --> 00:05:42,358
包括他的这个估值方面啊

184
00:05:42,358 --> 00:05:43,278
增速最快啊

185
00:05:43,278 --> 00:05:44,358
护城河最深啊

186
00:05:44,358 --> 00:05:45,098
估值最便宜

187
00:05:45,098 --> 00:05:46,778
那你实在看不懂货币周期

188
00:05:46,778 --> 00:05:47,999
看不到这个分红的话

189
00:05:47,999 --> 00:05:49,519
那你就赌这个啊

190
00:05:49,519 --> 00:05:50,899
这个里面风险最小的嘛

191
00:05:50,899 --> 00:05:51,540
就要我说

192
00:05:51,540 --> 00:05:52,899
那你一个好公司买的便宜

193
00:05:52,899 --> 00:05:54,860
你肯定比买贵风险要小得多对吧

194
00:05:54,860 --> 00:05:56,019
你的胜率高很多

195
00:05:56,019 --> 00:05:57,579
那这个呢是概率逻辑啊

196
00:05:57,579 --> 00:05:59,918
就我们做确定性呢是回本逻辑

197
00:05:59,918 --> 00:06:01,798
那你但凡是没有那么熟的话

198
00:06:01,798 --> 00:06:02,718
你这概率对吧

199
00:06:02,718 --> 00:06:04,238
我亏的概率多高啊

200
00:06:04,238 --> 00:06:05,338
比我赢的概率80%

201
00:06:05,338 --> 00:06:06,358
那我亏了20%

202
00:06:06,358 --> 00:06:07,278
你可以尝试

203
00:06:07,278 --> 00:06:07,870
对不对

204
00:06:07,870 --> 00:06:09,509
所以呢你不想错过机会

205
00:06:09,509 --> 00:06:10,899
你就可以用这个方法嘛

206
00:06:10,899 --> 00:06:13,660
但是分享过程里面呢其实也有很多的杂音啊

207
00:06:13,660 --> 00:06:16,100
实际上这也是为什么我现在对讲个股呢

208
00:06:16,100 --> 00:06:18,230
其实是不太有兴趣对吧

209
00:06:18,230 --> 00:06:20,689
一个是自己呢确实啊收益不错啊

210
00:06:20,689 --> 00:06:24,629
第二个呢就是那总是希望有些人能够理解哈

211
00:06:24,629 --> 00:06:25,290
能听懂

212
00:06:25,290 --> 00:06:28,990
而不是说你被一个没有听懂的人天天啊干扰呀

213
00:06:28,990 --> 00:06:31,230
包括这个之前讲到新能源汽车啊

214
00:06:31,230 --> 00:06:32,529
讲到这个小米啊

215
00:06:32,529 --> 00:06:33,569
蔚来小鹏啊

216
00:06:33,569 --> 00:06:34,310
比亚迪的时候

217
00:06:34,310 --> 00:06:36,129
你看我去年讲这个赛道的时候啊

218
00:06:36,129 --> 00:06:37,129
其实我平常很多时候

219
00:06:37,129 --> 00:06:40,160
我说如果啊今年进入存量市场

220
00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:42,019
那就会和家电一样对吧

221
00:06:42,019 --> 00:06:43,379
就是增收不增利

222
00:06:43,379 --> 00:06:44,920
而且呢这个投入越大啊

223
00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:45,649
利润越低

224
00:06:45,649 --> 00:06:47,389
实际上新能源汽车去年到现在

225
00:06:47,389 --> 00:06:49,410
新势力这些基本上都要涨两三折

226
00:06:49,410 --> 00:06:50,129
三四折

227
00:06:50,129 --> 00:06:52,589
但是在这个行业的投资人很多啊

228
00:06:52,589 --> 00:06:55,370
就是很多人就会过来啊啊羞辱啊

229
00:06:55,370 --> 00:06:55,850
辱骂呀

230
00:06:55,850 --> 00:06:57,180
然后骚扰呀

231
00:06:57,180 --> 00:06:58,779
实际上这个过程呢其实我也想过啊

232
00:06:58,779 --> 00:07:00,680
如果说哎不去分享这东西呢

233
00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:02,120
其实呢我省心很多啊

234
00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:02,560
当然了

235
00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:04,639
你说那你要去分享啊是吧

236
00:07:04,639 --> 00:07:05,480
去得罪人

237
00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:06,680
这个也不是我的初心啊

238
00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:07,600
没有必要对吧

239
00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:09,050
现在你很舒服的赚钱

240
00:07:09,050 --> 00:07:10,350
干嘛让自己不舒服呢

241
00:07:10,350 --> 00:07:12,560
这个也是我我想了很多事啊

242
00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:13,800
就是无论是创业呀

243
00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:16,959
投资呀啊包括我们人生呀都一模一样对吧

244
00:07:16,959 --> 00:07:18,740
有最好的不想吃好的是吧

245
00:07:18,740 --> 00:07:19,500
能能很能赚钱

246
00:07:19,500 --> 00:07:20,740
就不要跪着赚钱是吧

247
00:07:20,740 --> 00:07:22,100
能能和好人在一块

248
00:07:22,100 --> 00:07:23,379
为什么和垃圾在一块呢是吧

249
00:07:23,379 --> 00:07:24,660
你说我们做投资的目的

250
00:07:24,660 --> 00:07:26,779
不就为了给自己塑造一个好的环境啊

251
00:07:26,779 --> 00:07:28,500
让自己躺着赚钱吗对吧

252
00:07:28,500 --> 00:07:32,529
这也是为什么我不愿意去哈讲那些对吧

253
00:07:32,529 --> 00:07:33,449
这个AI赛道啊

254
00:07:33,449 --> 00:07:36,649
包括啊但凡脱离基本面或者说无法啊

255
00:07:36,649 --> 00:07:38,110
毛估估现金流的公司

256
00:07:38,110 --> 00:07:39,269
我都不敢去讲

257
00:07:39,269 --> 00:07:41,790
因为这个东西呢你你赌概率哈

258
00:07:41,790 --> 00:07:42,470
你赌趋势

259
00:07:42,470 --> 00:07:43,290
你赌情绪

260
00:07:43,290 --> 00:07:44,500
你还是在赌

261
00:07:44,500 --> 00:07:47,220
而不是说真的是你懂懂的话是什么呢

262
00:07:47,220 --> 00:07:47,699
就是跌了

263
00:07:47,699 --> 00:07:49,060
你开心呀对吧

264
00:07:49,060 --> 00:07:49,660
你其实来讲

265
00:07:49,660 --> 00:07:51,790
你看这几年很多好公司啊

266
00:07:51,790 --> 00:07:52,810
实际上被错杀

267
00:07:52,810 --> 00:07:54,529
但跌的时候其实很开心的加仓

268
00:07:54,529 --> 00:07:55,389
没有慌过

269
00:07:55,389 --> 00:07:56,610
那唯一的是什么呢

270
00:07:56,610 --> 00:07:59,009
就是这个行业的模型变掉了是吧

271
00:07:59,009 --> 00:08:01,649
那你像中概似的确确实实太有影响了

272
00:08:01,649 --> 00:08:03,430
比如说那确实是啊

273
00:08:03,430 --> 00:08:05,769
那那这些啊精米面出问题了哈

274
00:08:05,769 --> 00:08:07,290
你要美团阿里竞争的时候

275
00:08:07,290 --> 00:08:08,629
那精品面确实出问题了

276
00:08:08,629 --> 00:08:09,089
对不对

277
00:08:09,089 --> 00:08:10,350
那再比如说那拼多多

278
00:08:10,350 --> 00:08:12,509
他在这个啊在出海的过程里面

279
00:08:12,509 --> 00:08:15,079
那确实是受到这个政策影响很大对吧

280
00:08:15,079 --> 00:08:16,899
你的你的出坏啊

281
00:08:16,899 --> 00:08:17,899
影响越来越大啊

282
00:08:17,899 --> 00:08:20,779
包括你的这个啊这个竞争格局啊

283
00:08:20,779 --> 00:08:21,500
压力越来越大啊

284
00:08:21,500 --> 00:08:23,420
包括这个啊税务合规啊

285
00:08:23,420 --> 00:08:27,629
包括这些啊商家的这种广告费支出啊越来越大

286
00:08:27,629 --> 00:08:29,329
那这个时候呢你会思考一下

287
00:08:29,329 --> 00:08:31,240
就是你要不要调整一下仓位啊

288
00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:32,820
调整一下原来的这个策略啊

289
00:08:32,820 --> 00:08:34,580
这个事情也是要考虑的哈

290
00:08:34,580 --> 00:08:38,690
因为任何公司他都要经历这个兴衰啊

291
00:08:38,690 --> 00:08:39,470
起伏啊

292
00:08:39,470 --> 00:08:41,230
你不可能不去琢磨

293
00:08:41,230 --> 00:08:43,679
说哎我这个逻辑有没有变是吧

294
00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:44,759
如果变的话

295
00:08:44,759 --> 00:08:45,980
我该怎么调整

296
00:08:45,980 --> 00:08:47,759
但是呢万变不离其宗哈

297
00:08:47,759 --> 00:08:49,960
你所有的这个投资的决策呢

298
00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:52,240
还是要回到他的基本面哈

299
00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:53,519
继续回到他的行业估值哈

300
00:08:53,519 --> 00:08:54,700
回到他的股东回报率

301
00:08:54,700 --> 00:08:57,889
这个呢是从来不会变的一个东西啊

302
00:08:57,889 --> 00:08:58,529
啊当然了

303
00:08:58,529 --> 00:09:00,070
你说哈分享这么多

304
00:09:00,070 --> 00:09:01,289
我最开心的是什么呢

305
00:09:01,289 --> 00:09:03,330
就是很多兄弟能听懂啊

306
00:09:03,330 --> 00:09:04,049
很认可

307
00:09:04,049 --> 00:09:08,370
但为什么我说以后呢啊这种高收益的打法呢

308
00:09:08,370 --> 00:09:11,070
我也不可能说像过去那么去讲哈

309
00:09:11,070 --> 00:09:13,090
这个东西呢确确实实风险太大了

310
00:09:13,090 --> 00:09:15,828
而且呢你去用心的讲的时候呢

311
00:09:15,828 --> 00:09:17,308
他听不懂人呢

312
00:09:17,308 --> 00:09:19,928
他反而呢会过来哈找麻烦

313
00:09:19,928 --> 00:09:21,849
因为你没必要做那种粗理不套的事

314
00:09:21,849 --> 00:09:24,899
所以我未来呃最多呢也就讲讲思路哈

315
00:09:24,899 --> 00:09:25,759
讲讲思路啊

316
00:09:25,759 --> 00:09:27,480
讲讲这个观点呐

317
00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:29,980
哈讲讲这个行业的分析啊

318
00:09:29,980 --> 00:09:32,830
个股的话肯定会养的越来越少是吧

319
00:09:32,830 --> 00:09:36,909
然后呢这个也就给一些哈哈同道中人是吧

320
00:09:36,909 --> 00:09:39,169
就分享我的一些个人的思考啊

321
00:09:39,169 --> 00:09:41,149
尖锐一点的也只能给那些懂的人讲

322
00:09:41,149 --> 00:09:42,629
因为大部分人实实来讲哈

323
00:09:42,629 --> 00:09:45,440
我我就觉得哈我们目前的竞争格局啊

324
00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:47,240
实话实说非常的恶劣

325
00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:48,879
实际上所有的公司啊

326
00:09:48,879 --> 00:09:50,500
我每天收到几百个留言啊

327
00:09:50,500 --> 00:09:52,940
哈有买了这个做海骨的哈

328
00:09:52,940 --> 00:09:53,779
石头歌技呀

329
00:09:53,779 --> 00:09:55,750
科沃诗呀对吧啊

330
00:09:55,750 --> 00:09:57,909
包括这个买了出海电力的啊

331
00:09:57,909 --> 00:09:59,070
买了出海的消费品的

332
00:09:59,070 --> 00:10:00,480
买了化妆品保健品

333
00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:02,299
买了这些医医美的

334
00:10:02,299 --> 00:10:03,720
很多人找我说

335
00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:05,759
你权哥怎么样估值呢

336
00:10:05,759 --> 00:10:07,250
这个公司到底怎么了呢

337
00:10:07,250 --> 00:10:09,529
实际上不一定这个公式有问题

338
00:10:09,529 --> 00:10:11,570
各位很多时候竞争过度啊

339
00:10:11,570 --> 00:10:12,730
比如咱随便说一个案例吧

340
00:10:12,730 --> 00:10:14,559
啊比如说小家电啊

341
00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:16,519
小家电最近老有兄弟留言说

342
00:10:16,519 --> 00:10:18,129
问我这个石头科技怎么回事

343
00:10:18,129 --> 00:10:20,289
其实石头科技这些公司呢

344
00:10:20,289 --> 00:10:22,610
他还真的不完全是基本面出问题

345
00:10:22,610 --> 00:10:24,289
就就是卷的太严重哈

346
00:10:24,289 --> 00:10:25,990
第二个就出身不好对吧

347
00:10:25,990 --> 00:10:27,269
同样做这个啊

348
00:10:27,269 --> 00:10:28,269
这个吸尘器的哈

349
00:10:28,269 --> 00:10:29,659
做炸锅的呃

350
00:10:29,659 --> 00:10:30,580
沙特赢家啊

351
00:10:30,580 --> 00:10:31,860
估值的话29倍啊

352
00:10:31,860 --> 00:10:34,360
市值的话一百七八十亿美金对吧

353
00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:35,860
那创始人不是收购方

354
00:10:35,860 --> 00:10:36,820
还是人家王旭宁

355
00:10:36,820 --> 00:10:37,750
九阳的创始人

356
00:10:37,750 --> 00:10:38,750
同一个老板啊

357
00:10:38,750 --> 00:10:42,609
那九阳过去的啊是35年跌了八九十%

358
00:10:45,188 --> 00:10:46,288
那同样一个老板呢

359
00:10:46,288 --> 00:10:47,328
如果说做国内的话

360
00:10:47,328 --> 00:10:50,350
可能身价从百亿富豪变成了啊10亿富豪

361
00:10:50,350 --> 00:10:52,169
但是呢因为做了沙特赢家哈

362
00:10:52,169 --> 00:10:55,779
从这个啊几10亿变成了啊七八百亿

363
00:10:55,779 --> 00:10:59,379
所以你说王旭宁人还是那个人是吧

364
00:10:59,379 --> 00:11:00,799
然后供应链还在供应链哈

365
00:11:00,799 --> 00:11:03,049
然后那个啊逻辑和那个逻辑

366
00:11:03,049 --> 00:11:05,299
那为什么这个身价就翻了几十倍呢

367
00:11:05,299 --> 00:11:07,639
本质上来讲他肯定不是企业经营的问题

368
00:11:07,639 --> 00:11:09,100
也是我们可以严格来讲

369
00:11:09,100 --> 00:11:11,340
这个商业模式哈也没有什么变化

370
00:11:11,340 --> 00:11:12,980
然后呢这个老板没什么变化

371
00:11:12,980 --> 00:11:15,409
然后呢这个啊行业的竞争加剧了

372
00:11:15,409 --> 00:11:18,429
但是呢估值的根本在于说第一个你的出身

373
00:11:18,429 --> 00:11:21,519
因为你出在竞争最激烈的国内这个市场啊

374
00:11:21,519 --> 00:11:23,188
无论是科老师啊

375
00:11:23,188 --> 00:11:25,408
追觅哈还是石头科技还是9号

376
00:11:25,408 --> 00:11:27,229
还有一众这个其他的全封之类的

377
00:11:27,229 --> 00:11:28,028
都在跟你竞争

378
00:11:28,028 --> 00:11:30,539
那第二个呢就是你做线上渠道呢

379
00:11:30,539 --> 00:11:31,820
会面临这个问题啊

380
00:11:34,299 --> 00:11:35,639
无论是COSPO2维码

381
00:11:35,639 --> 00:11:37,940
在美国本土呢啊做的很强势

382
00:11:37,940 --> 00:11:40,720
反而呢是因为他线下呢受影响受的小

383
00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,340
反而呢线上呢像像亚马逊呐

384
00:11:43,340 --> 00:11:45,809
像这些平台呢对商家影响很大

385
00:11:45,809 --> 00:11:48,289
所以呢你在买入这些出海品牌的时候

386
00:11:48,289 --> 00:11:50,210
你除了考虑它的销售额增速以外

387
00:11:50,210 --> 00:11:54,309
你还要看他的线下的覆盖率和线下的占比

388
00:11:54,309 --> 00:11:56,690
实际上现在的消费品估值啊

389
00:11:56,690 --> 00:11:58,190
线下比线上重要

390
00:11:58,190 --> 00:11:59,549
哎你线上卖的越好

391
00:11:59,549 --> 00:12:00,669
你反而你的估值会越低

392
00:12:00,669 --> 00:12:02,009
因为你是波动太大了

393
00:12:02,009 --> 00:12:03,629
你反而线下占比越高呢

394
00:12:03,629 --> 00:12:04,490
你的估值会越高

395
00:12:04,490 --> 00:12:06,090
因为你稳定哈

396
00:12:06,090 --> 00:12:08,909
然后呢这个消费者心智更强

397
00:12:08,909 --> 00:12:10,929
然后呢没有那么的卷

398
00:12:10,929 --> 00:12:14,950
所以你要从这个渠道角度来讲哈

399
00:12:14,950 --> 00:12:17,509
就是我们讲的这个波特五力模型是吧

400
00:12:17,509 --> 00:12:19,450
然后你要做一个全面的分析

401
00:12:19,450 --> 00:12:21,289
那这就是做消费品的话

402
00:12:21,289 --> 00:12:22,850
实际大家你要去研究哈

403
00:12:22,850 --> 00:12:24,269
你要懂行啊

404
00:12:24,269 --> 00:12:27,110
你还要去从全球不同的视角去看待

405
00:12:27,110 --> 00:12:28,149
这个消费品的估值

406
00:12:28,149 --> 00:12:30,389
所以这个呢也是做投资的时候

407
00:12:30,389 --> 00:12:32,649
一个非常重要的思考纬度啊

408
00:12:32,649 --> 00:12:34,350
当然了你要买科技啊

409
00:12:34,350 --> 00:12:37,370
这个东西呢啊我们也是啊重投了美股科技嘛

410
00:12:37,370 --> 00:12:39,269
你说这个呢也赚了很多钱嘛

411
00:12:39,269 --> 00:12:40,649
但是我们的逻辑很简单啊

412
00:12:40,649 --> 00:12:42,210
所以沪通河深啊

413
00:12:42,210 --> 00:12:43,429
呃买谁哈

414
00:12:43,429 --> 00:12:45,450
第二个呢就是跌的狠的时候哈

415
00:12:45,450 --> 00:12:46,529
就巴菲特说到啊

416
00:12:46,529 --> 00:12:49,409
那哈这个天上掉掉金子的时候

417
00:12:49,409 --> 00:12:50,570
拿盆来接嘛啊

418
00:12:50,570 --> 00:12:52,129
平时基本上不怎么操作啊

419
00:12:52,129 --> 00:12:53,309
再加点清权策略

420
00:12:53,309 --> 00:12:54,850
就整个逻辑非常简单

421
00:12:54,850 --> 00:12:56,469
还非常舒服啊

422
00:12:56,469 --> 00:12:57,188
讲了那么多呢

423
00:12:57,188 --> 00:13:00,028
就是感谢这么多兄弟呢支持啊

424
00:13:00,749 --> 00:13:03,559
特别是每日看我这个情绪不好啊

425
00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:05,860
被人攻击的时候都站出来哈

426
00:13:05,860 --> 00:13:07,460
为我为我证明啊

427
00:13:07,460 --> 00:13:08,820
为我这个加油的兄弟啊

428
00:13:08,820 --> 00:13:09,299
是非常感谢

429
00:13:09,299 --> 00:13:10,080
非常感谢真的

430
00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:11,940
其实来讲分享投资的乐趣也在这个地方

431
00:13:11,940 --> 00:13:13,620
就是你说哈

432
00:13:13,620 --> 00:13:14,460
你说你分享啊

433
00:13:14,460 --> 00:13:15,740
你图什么嘛对吧

434
00:13:15,740 --> 00:13:17,200
没什么赚钱也可以啊

435
00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:18,379
还有很多兄弟说强哥

436
00:13:18,379 --> 00:13:19,539
你这个就是为了带货

437
00:13:19,539 --> 00:13:24,100
哎你说做电商的谁不想打品牌对吧

438
00:13:24,100 --> 00:13:27,000
做电商的哪个人不希望免费流量对吧

439
00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:30,240
做电商的哪个人不被平台深深的捆绑对吧

440
00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:32,360
你你说做化妆品保健品的那些人

441
00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:33,740
哪个人不拿60%的

442
00:13:33,740 --> 00:13:36,099
到70的营销费用去投流

443
00:13:36,099 --> 00:13:37,379
但是你你有IP

444
00:13:37,379 --> 00:13:38,698
有免费的流量

445
00:13:38,698 --> 00:13:41,359
你比别人节省五六十%的营销费用呀

446
00:13:41,359 --> 00:13:45,200
那这个东西从从这个创业者角度那做

447
00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:46,480
做内容是最好的渠道

448
00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:48,299
但是这个过程呢还能帮助一些人

449
00:13:48,299 --> 00:13:49,240
还能自己赚钱

450
00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:50,129
何乐而不为呢

451
00:13:50,129 --> 00:13:52,169
所以这是一个一箭三雕的事

452
00:13:52,169 --> 00:13:53,529
没有什么坏处啊

453
00:13:53,529 --> 00:13:53,769
当然了

454
00:13:53,769 --> 00:13:55,830
我建议大家都可以去做电商的兄弟

455
00:13:55,830 --> 00:13:57,370
都可以考虑一下做IP啊

456
00:13:57,370 --> 00:14:00,009
都可以通过IP给自己的品牌引流啊

457
00:14:00,009 --> 00:14:00,769
多好的渠道啊

458
00:14:00,769 --> 00:14:01,519
对不对

459
00:14:01,519 --> 00:14:03,919
唉所以呢讲了很多很感谢啊

460
00:14:03,919 --> 00:14:05,860
以后呢更多的分享逻辑啊

461
00:14:05,860 --> 00:14:08,320
尽量的减少个股的分析啊

462
00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:09,440
减少干扰啊
评论

共 5 条,按点赞数排序。

用户 内容 点赞 回复 时间
家和事鋞 遇到大哥像全哥一样,做着业务 1 0 2026-07-08 12:06
洞庭湖滴老麻雀丶 支持[打call] 1 0 2026-07-08 11:31
跑5km的BrotherHero 哈哈哈 0 0 2026-07-09 15:20
一生只需富一次 全哥买股逻辑:好公司买的便宜,回本快;同类公司买全球最好的 0 0 2026-07-09 01:21
家和事鋞 如果你只想着玩没有各种衔接该有的责任与担当,如果你只是一直吸引不知道如何面对一起共同衍生上市各种还有还是责任与担当,各种各种,你就知道为什么是这样的现状,为什么还是只是觉得奥,这个女的又下一个女的,我遇到了孙正如孙正义遇到了,开启了风又是雨各种就是了 0 0 2026-07-08 21:40
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