【Daniel Pronk】暴跌 34%！微软已跌回2017，捡漏机会？

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所以微软股票已经暴跌了

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我认为现在说这句话并不夸张

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因为微软较历史高点已下跌三至四成

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过去一个月股价下跌了25%

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今日一度下跌4%至最低点

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该股自2021年底至今几乎无回报

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与此同时

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公司基本面仍在持续强劲增长

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但市场目前并不看好微软股票

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这导致许多用户向我寻求对微软的看法

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如果我认为今天的股票看起来很有吸引力

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而最终如果我要买入它

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所以在本视频中我们将讨论所有相关内容

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微软股票

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我认为我们应该首先讨论当前股票的主要反对理由

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因为投资者显然对其并不兴奋

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我已经识别出三个主要反对论点

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这些主要反对理由是人工智能将颠覆其软件业务

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他们的资本支出可能无法收回成本

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尤其是随着芯片成本的上升

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我的意思是

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只需看看微芯科技

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以及他们现在内存产品的售价

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第三个空头论点是微软对OpenAI的依赖

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为其云业务增长

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因为其剩余履约义务的45%来自OpenAI

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现在让我们逐一拆解这三个主要的空头论点

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我们首先从最上面开始

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AI正在蚕食微软的软件业务

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首先

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微软正越来越多地转向基于使用量的定价模式

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而不仅仅是基于座位数的定价

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同时也在变得更加模型化

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无厂商绑定

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不再仅仅依赖OpenAI的单一模型来推动公司成功

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微软软件已深度融入企业工作流程

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他们拥有专有数据以在全球范围内为现有客户增加价值

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从我迄今为止阅读的所有人工智能相关内容来看

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分发能力加专有数据将是AI时代护城河的核心

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随着大型语言模型持续走向商品化

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微软在全球范围内拥有如此广泛的分布

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再加上大量关于企业工作流程的专有数据

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这让我相信他们将成为人工智能的赢家和受益者

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而非被其颠覆

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我认为他们在软件业务中现在拥有非常稳固的地位

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此外，在微软最近的财报中

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他们表示人工智能收入同比增长120%

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三年复合增长率达到3%

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七十七亿美元

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Copilot也实现了二十万付费席位

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同比座位数增长了两百五十个百分点

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最后一点是

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支付超过五万个Copilot座位的客户数量

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同比激增四倍

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因此企业正在更多采用Copilot

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但微软仍需继续整体提升Copilot

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因为使用Copilot付费的客户比例仍然较低

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约为4%

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这是最后的指标数据

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但其AI业务增长强劲

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看来这已成为公司整体发展的助力

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微软生产力与业务流程收入

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主要由其软件收入构成

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企业收入达到历史新高一百三十亿美元

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过去十二个月营收达一百三十亿五千万美元

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仍以约14%的年复合增长率增长

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微软软件业务似乎未受人工智能冲击

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目前仍保持良好增长态势

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接下来讨论第二个熊市论点

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微软的资本支出难以产生回报

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尤其是难以实现

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芯片价格正在上涨

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我们都知道当前资本支出成本极高

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所有超大规模云厂商均面临此问题

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市场愈发担忧这些资本支出

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无法带来高投资回报

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尤其是芯片价格持续攀升

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例如

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去年一亿美元可能购买一亿颗芯片

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仅作示例

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如今同样一亿美元可能只能买到半亿颗芯片

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超大规模厂商的美元购买力大幅下降

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这也是各超大规模厂商今日集体抛售的原因

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在市场中

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微芯财报发布后

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微芯持续调高价格

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并称价格将长期维持高位

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若芯片价格持续高位

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那么

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超大规模厂商无法获得同等回报

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我认为超大规模厂商的回报率正在下降

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但其资本支出回报率仍具吸引力

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因为所有厂商均表示产能受限

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云计算需求激增

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AI计算与Token处理需求

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他们根本无法满足需求

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因此必须尽快建设数据中心与算力

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因为市场需求旺盛且明确

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他们只需抓住机会

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但缺乏相应产能

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我相信这些企业的运营者

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你知道的

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世界上一些最大的公司

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清楚自己在做什么

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尤其是亚马逊

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因为他们已经在云计算业务中运营AWS十多年了

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超过十多年了，他们清楚自己在做什么

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他们清楚这些数据中心的现金流状况，而我个人

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我认为人工智能的需求绝不会放缓

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我说我有机会尝试过Mythos

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在它被禁用前的加拿大

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那个模型确实令人难以置信

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我的Discord里有人给Mythos一个三句话的

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提示分析一只股票，即塔斯马尼亚

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生成了一份关于塔斯马尼亚的四页精美研究报告

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每个数据都准确无误

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所有数字都正确

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这份报告极具价值

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我整理这些研究资料需要超过二十小时

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而Mythos十五分钟就完成了PDF整理

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这份研究报告的价值巨大

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这只是股票分析的一个例子

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我相信人工智能的价值非常真实

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需求也同样真实

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近期的担忧是人工智能的成本问题

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但讽刺的是

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随着超大规模数据中心持续扩建

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人工智能的成本应该会下降

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这反而会提升使用率

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甚至可能增加超大规模公司的AI收入

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我不认为人工智能的成本问题长期是风险

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再次，随着人工智能成本下降

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我认为其使用和普及会进一步扩散

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但回到投资回报的担忧

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微软的运营现金流利润率达到十年

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高点五

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三点五百分比

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但自由现金流利润率目前较低

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因为他们处于大规模资本支出周期

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但业务核心仍非常盈利

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运营现金流利润率创历史新高

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下一张截图显示运营现金流增长依然强劲

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过去十二个月达到一百七十亿美元

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年复合增长率约十八%

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微软的核心业务越来越盈利

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持续产生更多现金流

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增长势头巨大

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一旦资本支出周期放缓

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我认为这只是时间问题

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我说

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这些公司不会将全部运营现金流投入资本支出

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永远

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我认为这只是周期性波动

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当这个周期放缓时

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在我看来这些公司的自由现金流将爆发式增长

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我也相信微软的运营现金流增长表明

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它们在所有资本支出上获得了正的投资回报率

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因为其业务正在产生更多真实现金流

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现在让我们来看第三个也是最后的熊市论点

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目前这个论点非常喧嚣

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即微软对OpenAI的云业务依赖

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之所以如此担忧

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微软对OpenAI的依赖原因有四

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剩余四分之五的履约义务来自OpenAI

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然而零

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40%的增长并非仅是OpenAI的故事，Azure增长显著

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即使完全剔除OpenAI在最新季度

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微软CFO指出剩余五

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剩余五分之五的履约义务仍增长两

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8%同比

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因此微软非OpenAI剩余履约义务及相关业务仍年增近三十

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同比来看

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她还强调OpenAI从微软获得极低成本计算资源

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OpenAI的云计算收入属于低毛利业务

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并未显著提升公司核心利润，与其他企业客户相比

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现在让我们看看微软云业务运营利润

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可见过去十二个月达到五

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30亿美元历史新高

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年均增长约两

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6%

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简言之

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微软云业务增长强劲

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利润率极高

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非OpenAI剩余履约义务仍持续良好增长

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同样

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如果完全排除OpenAI因素

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微软云业务仍将强劲增长

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并面临产能限制

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这让我认为针对OpenAI的熊市论点被过度夸大

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现在快速浏览微软第一季度

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2026年财报要点

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亮点

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可见公司整体营收同比上涨15%

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按固定汇率计算

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运营利润同比增16%

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随后Satya表示

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我们专注于提供云和AI基础设施解决方案，赋能企业

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最大化成果

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在算力激增时代

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我们的AI业务年收入达到三

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七亿美元

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同比上涨123%

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在最近一个季度

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微软的业务仍在以两位数速度增长

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其云业务表现极为出色

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而人工智能业务同比再次翻倍增长

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接下来切换到下一截图

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此图显示微软365商业云收入增长15%

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微软365消费者云收入增长2.9%

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领英收入增长9%

211
00:10:33,719 --> 00:10:37,159
Dynamics 365收入增长17%

212
00:10:37,159 --> 00:10:38,179
在底部可以看到

213
00:10:38,179 --> 00:10:42,059
具体来看Azure增长39%

214
00:10:42,059 --> 00:10:47,539
这就是微软的软件与云业务板块，整体表现

215
00:10:47,539 --> 00:10:50,600
均以两位数速度强劲增长

216
00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:51,399
再次强调

217
00:10:51,399 --> 00:10:56,568
看来云业务并未受挫，软件业务同样表现优异

218
00:10:56,568 --> 00:10:57,109
然而

219
00:10:57,109 --> 00:10:58,649
下一截图显示

220
00:10:58,649 --> 00:11:02,620
微软个人计算业务收入达132亿美元

221
00:11:02,620 --> 00:11:06,839
按固定货币计算同比下滑3%

222
00:11:06,839 --> 00:11:10,178
Windows OEM及设备收入下降3%

223
00:11:10,178 --> 00:11:12,619
Xbox收入下降7%

224
00:11:12,619 --> 00:11:15,730
搜索与广告收入仅增长9%

225
00:11:15,730 --> 00:11:16,409
说实话

226
00:11:16,409 --> 00:11:21,019
微软个人计算业务并不令人兴奋

227
00:11:21,019 --> 00:11:22,820
增长速度也较慢

228
00:11:22,820 --> 00:11:23,240
然而

229
00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:27,149
好消息是个人计算业务

230
00:11:27,149 --> 00:11:30,620
并非微软主要利润来源

231
00:11:30,620 --> 00:11:31,700
过去12个月

232
00:11:31,700 --> 00:11:35,068
仅产生150亿美元运营利润

233
00:11:35,068 --> 00:11:38,808
微软整体业务约1490亿美元

234
00:11:38,808 --> 00:11:43,750
个人计算业务占公司利润约10%

235
00:11:43,750 --> 00:11:45,370
随着时间推移

236
00:11:45,370 --> 00:11:48,659
其净贡献持续下降

237
00:11:48,659 --> 00:11:52,750
随着云与软件业务持续高速增长

238
00:11:52,750 --> 00:11:53,649
在我看来

239
00:11:53,649 --> 00:11:57,769
微软的投资逻辑完全依赖云与软件业务

240
00:11:57,769 --> 00:12:00,259
并持续良好表现

241
00:12:00,259 --> 00:12:03,379
现在快速讨论微软估值

242
00:12:03,379 --> 00:12:07,009
我喜欢观察这些公司当前的市销率

243
00:12:07,009 --> 00:12:11,500
因为所有超大规模企业都在大规模资本支出周期

244
00:12:11,500 --> 00:12:14,440
关注自由现金流将是错误的

245
00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:15,539
至少在我看来

246
00:12:15,539 --> 00:12:20,240
微软当前市销率约为15.3倍

247
00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:24,399
低于2022年抛售期间的水平

248
00:12:24,399 --> 00:12:27,669
当时降至约19倍市销率

249
00:12:27,669 --> 00:12:30,490
在2020年股市崩盘时

250
00:12:30,490 --> 00:12:33,789
市销率一度跌至约19倍

251
00:12:33,789 --> 00:12:37,309
微软目前的市盈率处于十年低位

252
00:12:37,309 --> 00:12:40,110
现在甚至低于2022年熊市期间的水平

253
00:12:40,110 --> 00:12:42,509
而2020年股市崩盘时的情况

254
00:12:42,509 --> 00:12:45,730
我们甚至要追溯到2017年

255
00:12:45,730 --> 00:12:48,899
才能找到相似的现金流估值

256
00:12:48,899 --> 00:12:50,960
从运营现金流角度来看

257
00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:54,340
微软现在接近十年来最低点

258
00:12:54,340 --> 00:12:57,039
我认为这非常惊人

259
00:12:57,039 --> 00:12:58,200
同样令人惊叹的是

260
00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:00,240
如果我们快速查看微软的营收数据

261
00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,230
回溯到2017年

262
00:13:02,230 --> 00:13:05,269
当时的业务增长并不显著

263
00:13:05,269 --> 00:13:08,960
在上次类似估值时

264
00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:12,019
从2015年到2017年期间

265
00:13:12,019 --> 00:13:14,990
营收仅增长约3%

266
00:13:14,990 --> 00:13:15,669
再次说明

267
00:13:15,669 --> 00:13:19,919
这是微软上次类似估值的时间

268
00:13:19,919 --> 00:13:20,940
如果我们拉长视野

269
00:13:20,940 --> 00:13:24,849
可以看到业务正在强劲增长

270
00:13:24,849 --> 00:13:28,188
营收增长率还在小幅提升

271
00:13:28,188 --> 00:13:31,460
现在让我们从市盈率角度分析微软

272
00:13:31,460 --> 00:13:35,320
目前其前向市盈率低于19倍

273
00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,820
基本在19倍左右，而2022年时

274
00:13:38,820 --> 00:13:40,659
曾交易在约21倍

275
00:13:40,659 --> 00:13:42,179
市盈率约6倍前向收益

276
00:13:42,179 --> 00:13:44,379
在2020年股市崩盘期间

277
00:13:44,379 --> 00:13:46,120
一度跌至约2倍

278
00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:47,490
前向收益市盈率2倍

279
00:13:47,490 --> 00:13:50,990
上次微软交易类似前向市盈率

280
00:13:50,990 --> 00:13:53,730
还是追溯到2017年

281
00:13:53,730 --> 00:13:56,090
即使从前向市盈率看

282
00:13:56,090 --> 00:13:58,799
仍处于十年低点

283
00:13:58,799 --> 00:14:03,080
这表明市场对微软毫无看涨预期

284
00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:06,659
公司前景普遍非常悲观

285
00:14:06,659 --> 00:14:09,779
最后我们快速做下微软的DCF分析

286
00:14:09,779 --> 00:14:13,860
在此DCF模型中我预测未来三年

287
00:14:13,860 --> 00:14:17,009
运营现金流年增长13%

288
00:14:17,009 --> 00:14:22,289
远低于当前约18%的现金流增速

289
00:14:22,289 --> 00:14:26,480
同时假设微软将交易在18倍现金流

290
00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:29,000
观察过去十年的中位数

291
00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:30,820
实际约为22倍

292
00:14:30,820 --> 00:14:32,860
这还未考虑回归历史均值

293
00:14:32,860 --> 00:14:35,250
业务重回历史估值水平

294
00:14:35,250 --> 00:14:36,230
简而言之

295
00:14:36,230 --> 00:14:41,480
我认为微软未来可能获得更高估值

296
00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:43,879
即使采用更保守的DCF模型

297
00:14:43,879 --> 00:14:46,480
也能得出20%年复合增长率

298
00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:47,409
对应股价增长

299
00:14:47,409 --> 00:14:49,889
公允价值460美元

300
00:14:49,889 --> 00:14:54,799
到2029年股价或达600美元

301
00:14:54,799 --> 00:14:56,879
因此在这个更保守的DCF模型中

302
00:14:56,879 --> 00:14:57,419
就在这里

303
00:14:57,419 --> 00:15:00,559
微软似乎能产生相当强劲的回报

304
00:15:00,559 --> 00:15:05,919
只要企业的经营现金流和基础利润能够持续增长

305
00:15:05,919 --> 00:15:08,450
我认为它们会继续增长，没错

306
00:15:08,450 --> 00:15:09,269
所以我的相机没电了

307
00:15:09,269 --> 00:15:10,710
所以我将进行总结

308
00:15:10,710 --> 00:15:12,620
就在电脑上用要点形式

309
00:15:12,620 --> 00:15:13,360
总体而言

310
00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:17,899
我认为微软看起来严重被低估且非常便宜

311
00:15:17,899 --> 00:15:24,019
目前市场明显对OpenAI软件和超大规模数据中心支出持悲观态度

312
00:15:24,019 --> 00:15:29,700
微软现在正是市场三大悲观论点的典型代表

313
00:15:29,700 --> 00:15:33,039
这也是股票表现疲软的原因

314
00:15:33,039 --> 00:15:37,700
但核心业务和基本面仍在持续增长复利

315
00:15:37,700 --> 00:15:39,960
从长期投资者的角度来看

316
00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,639
我认为这最终才是关键

317
00:15:42,639 --> 00:15:45,220
一旦超大规模数据中心放缓资本支出

318
00:15:45,220 --> 00:15:46,840
我认为这是必然趋势

319
00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:50,730
当前的资本支出无法永远持续

320
00:15:52,809 --> 00:15:54,210
但这需要时间

321
00:15:54,210 --> 00:15:58,629
目前他们似乎没有计划放缓资本支出

322
00:15:58,629 --> 00:15:59,450
在此期间

323
00:15:59,450 --> 00:16:02,429
市场变得不再乐观，反而担忧

324
00:16:02,429 --> 00:16:04,179
资本支出情况

325
00:16:04,179 --> 00:16:08,620
市场明显转向内存和芯片股

326
00:16:08,620 --> 00:16:11,360
现在已将超大规模数据中心股抛在身后

327
00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:13,840
我认为这些业务绝非糟糕

328
00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:14,259
不过

329
00:16:14,259 --> 00:16:18,840
正如我们看到微软的基础利润和经营现金流在增长

330
00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:19,899
收入正在复利增长

331
00:16:19,899 --> 00:16:22,419
业务实际上正在加速增长

332
00:16:22,419 --> 00:16:23,240
话说回来

333
00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:25,740
我尚未增持微软股票

334
00:16:25,740 --> 00:16:28,340
因为我目前投资组合现金不多

335
00:16:28,340 --> 00:16:32,349
在大量买入亚马逊、Meta和其他股票后

336
00:16:32,349 --> 00:16:34,828
但我非常想增持微软

337
00:16:34,828 --> 00:16:39,850
现在只能削减其他持仓来腾出资金

338
00:16:39,850 --> 00:16:40,610
毕竟

339
00:16:40,610 --> 00:16:42,309
我手头现金有限

340
00:16:42,309 --> 00:16:45,480
但我已站在决策边缘

341
00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:48,899
我只是不确定该削减哪部分来增持微软

342
00:16:48,899 --> 00:16:52,850
但我确实认为微软被严重低估

343
00:16:52,850 --> 00:16:54,750
当我进行DCF分析时

344
00:16:54,750 --> 00:16:57,009
它不需要表现得那么好

345
00:16:57,009 --> 00:16:59,350
基础业务也不需要表现得那么好

346
00:16:59,350 --> 00:17:02,570
从这里开始就能获得惊人回报

347
00:17:02,570 --> 00:17:03,769
这就是微软

348
00:17:03,769 --> 00:17:06,569
我们讨论的是全球最优秀的公司之一

349
00:17:06,569 --> 00:17:10,230
拥有最广泛的全球企业客户群

350
00:17:10,230 --> 00:17:13,769
如果我必须赌哪一家公司能弄清楚分销的原因

351
00:17:13,769 --> 00:17:17,940
基于使用量的商业模式下的企业软件收入

352
00:17:17,940 --> 00:17:19,409
那一定是微软

353
00:17:19,409 --> 00:17:21,848
请在下方评论区告诉我你的看法

354
00:17:21,848 --> 00:17:23,909
你觉得微软在关注这里吗

355
00:17:23,909 --> 00:17:24,648
你认可这个观点吗

356
00:17:24,648 --> 00:17:25,709
你觉得我应该怎么做

357
00:17:25,709 --> 00:17:27,529
我很想和你讨论

358
00:17:27,529 --> 00:17:28,609
不过话说回来

359
00:17:28,609 --> 00:17:30,069
今天的视频就到这里了

360
00:17:30,069 --> 00:17:31,309
如果你喜欢这个视频

361
00:17:31,309 --> 00:17:32,980
请记得为它点赞

362
00:17:32,980 --> 00:17:33,740
如果你是第一次来看

363
00:17:33,740 --> 00:17:35,440
请考虑订阅我的频道

364
00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:37,289
如果你想看到更多类似内容

365
00:17:37,289 --> 00:17:38,130
一如既往地

366
00:17:38,130 --> 00:17:40,670
非常感谢你花时间观看我的视频

367
00:17:40,670 --> 00:17:42,920
希望我们下次再见

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