BV1iJMh6uEXc · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,480 --> 00:00:01,100 最近怎么样 2 00:00:01,100 --> 00:00:03,759 大家欢迎来到我的小账户第十六天 3 00:00:03,759 --> 00:00:06,320 挑战成长两千美元账户 4 00:00:06,320 --> 00:00:08,560 使用Schwab作为经纪商 5 00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:11,179 今天几乎是个红盘日 6 00:00:11,179 --> 00:00:12,369 我进行了两次交易 7 00:00:12,369 --> 00:00:15,330 准确率51%胜率 8 00:00:15,330 --> 00:00:16,850 一单亏损不错 9 00:00:16,850 --> 00:00:18,129 但好消息来了 10 00:00:18,129 --> 00:00:21,859 因为我有正向盈亏比 11 00:00:21,859 --> 00:00:24,019 我能以盈利结束当日 12 00:00:24,019 --> 00:00:25,620 你的盈亏比 13 00:00:25,620 --> 00:00:29,170 是平均盈利与平均亏损的对比 14 00:00:29,170 --> 00:00:31,629 只要你平均盈利更多 15 00:00:31,629 --> 00:00:32,728 那么即使亏损 16 00:00:32,728 --> 00:00:35,209 即便准确率50% 17 00:00:35,209 --> 00:00:37,029 你仍是盈利交易者 18 00:00:37,029 --> 00:00:42,098 这就是设定低门槛更容易实现盈利 19 00:00:42,098 --> 00:00:44,719 然而许多新手交易者 20 00:00:44,719 --> 00:00:46,518 不会快速止损 21 00:00:46,518 --> 00:00:47,960 我通常的做法是 22 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:50,520 他们持仓等待反转 23 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:52,299 甚至加仓亏损单 24 00:00:52,299 --> 00:00:54,719 最终止损时 25 00:00:54,719 --> 00:00:56,709 平均亏损变得巨大 26 00:00:56,709 --> 00:00:58,048 平均盈利则 27 00:00:58,048 --> 00:00:59,329 你快速锁定利润 28 00:00:59,329 --> 00:01:00,548 因为想及时落袋为安 29 00:01:00,548 --> 00:01:01,600 规模较小 30 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:04,299 现在盈亏比倒置 31 00:01:04,299 --> 00:01:09,760 意味着需胜率超50%才能保本 32 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:13,200 不知不觉抬高盈利门槛 33 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:17,040 盈亏比是最重要指标 34 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:17,299 没错 35 00:01:17,299 --> 00:01:18,650 准确率很重要 36 00:01:18,650 --> 00:01:21,930 我们都追求高准确率 37 00:01:21,930 --> 00:01:23,349 胜率高于失误 38 00:01:23,349 --> 00:01:24,629 但归根结底 39 00:01:24,629 --> 00:01:28,090 低准确率交易者也能盈利 40 00:01:28,090 --> 00:01:30,650 只要盈亏比为正 41 00:01:30,650 --> 00:01:32,269 现在开启屏幕共享 42 00:01:32,269 --> 00:01:34,510 开始分析今日交易 43 00:01:34,510 --> 00:01:34,989 好的 44 00:01:34,989 --> 00:01:36,209 今天已是第十六天 45 00:01:36,209 --> 00:01:37,170 提醒大家 46 00:01:37,170 --> 00:01:41,430 这些小账户收益全部捐慈善 47 00:01:41,430 --> 00:01:44,650 大家有机会帮助增加捐赠 48 00:01:44,650 --> 00:01:48,189 每次点赞我额外加一美元 49 00:01:48,189 --> 00:01:49,000 在本系列中 50 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:52,200 已筹集超过35.3万美元 51 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:54,978 这是五十州儿童医院目标的一部分 52 00:01:54,978 --> 00:01:58,638 目标是向每个州的儿童医院捐款 53 00:01:58,638 --> 00:01:59,858 就在美国这里 54 00:01:59,858 --> 00:02:01,578 到目前为止我们进展不错 55 00:02:01,578 --> 00:02:03,969 我想我们已经完成了二十八或二十九家医院 56 00:02:03,969 --> 00:02:05,109 但我们还没完成 57 00:02:05,109 --> 00:02:06,370 还有更多工作要做 58 00:02:06,370 --> 00:02:07,390 我们会继续跟进 59 00:02:07,390 --> 00:02:09,300 感谢大家今天的点赞 60 00:02:09,300 --> 00:02:14,560 第十六天我们之前没有明显进展，但现在有一只股票上涨了百分之九十八 61 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:15,889 如你所见 62 00:02:15,889 --> 00:02:17,050 CRNX 63 00:02:17,050 --> 00:02:21,120 但每股83美元，流通股1亿股 64 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:21,500 现在 65 00:02:21,500 --> 00:02:24,879 你可能会好奇股票为何能上涨这么多 66 00:02:24,879 --> 00:02:25,479 你知道的 67 00:02:25,479 --> 00:02:27,579 在如此高的流通盘和股价下 68 00:02:27,579 --> 00:02:30,098 所以我回放这里并全屏显示 69 00:02:30,098 --> 00:02:32,449 你会注意到图表中的有趣现象 70 00:02:32,449 --> 00:02:33,129 哇 71 00:02:33,129 --> 00:02:34,750 这是什么类型的图表 72 00:02:34,750 --> 00:02:39,289 突然这里开始横盘交易 73 00:02:39,289 --> 00:02:41,990 每股约83.5美元 74 00:02:41,990 --> 00:02:45,250 这是因为公司已被收购 75 00:02:45,250 --> 00:02:47,680 他们现在被收购了 76 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:49,219 我实际上没有查看 77 00:02:49,219 --> 00:02:50,379 新闻的标题 78 00:02:50,379 --> 00:02:51,879 确切的收购价格 79 00:02:51,879 --> 00:02:55,620 收购价格很可能稍高 80 00:02:55,620 --> 00:02:58,099 收购价十亿美元，好的 81 00:02:58,099 --> 00:02:59,590 这每股相当于多少 82 00:02:59,590 --> 00:03:01,569 每股85美元 83 00:03:01,569 --> 00:03:02,629 你可能会想 84 00:03:02,629 --> 00:03:03,270 等等 85 00:03:03,270 --> 00:03:04,389 如果现在被收购 86 00:03:04,389 --> 00:03:04,789 首先 87 00:03:04,789 --> 00:03:09,599 如果被Vertex制药公司收购 88 00:03:09,599 --> 00:03:11,599 每股85美元 89 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:15,259 为何不直接交易在85美元 90 00:03:15,259 --> 00:03:20,439 问题在于如果你现在买入 91 00:03:20,439 --> 00:03:23,280 每股83.5美元 92 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:25,219 收购完成后 93 00:03:25,219 --> 00:03:29,460 你会在收购时获得每股85美元 94 00:03:29,460 --> 00:03:32,699 每股净赚1.5美元 95 00:03:32,699 --> 00:03:33,280 这很棒 96 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:35,659 一万股就是1.5万美元 97 00:03:35,659 --> 00:03:37,060 这似乎很划算 98 00:03:37,060 --> 00:03:40,379 但市场已考虑一定风险 99 00:03:40,379 --> 00:03:42,539 存在交易可能失败的风险 100 00:03:42,539 --> 00:03:43,280 可能会 101 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:43,699 你知道吗 102 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:45,020 反垄断 103 00:03:45,020 --> 00:03:47,849 垄断相关事宜可能在尽职调查期间处理 104 00:03:47,849 --> 00:03:49,189 不管怎样，可能发生一些事情 105 00:03:49,189 --> 00:03:50,250 这笔交易无法完成 106 00:03:50,250 --> 00:03:51,889 如果交易无法完成 107 00:03:51,889 --> 00:03:57,479 股价会一路跌回每股四美元 108 00:03:57,479 --> 00:03:59,340 持有十万股股份 109 00:03:59,340 --> 00:04:02,020 你的1.5万美元利润面临 110 00:04:02,020 --> 00:04:04,360 四百万元的风险 111 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:06,300 这个盈亏比并不理想 112 00:04:06,300 --> 00:04:08,639 现在可能会有人接下这笔交易 113 00:04:08,639 --> 00:04:11,400 他们可能用期权对冲风险 114 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:12,849 通过买入看跌期权防下跌 115 00:04:12,849 --> 00:04:14,370 总的来说 116 00:04:14,370 --> 00:04:17,110 这个风险回报比真的不高 117 00:04:17,110 --> 00:04:19,389 因此并未完全按收购价成交 118 00:04:19,389 --> 00:04:21,338 但价格接近收购价 119 00:04:21,338 --> 00:04:25,449 此时没有真正交易机会 120 00:04:25,449 --> 00:04:32,029 因为公司价值已由收购确定 121 00:04:32,029 --> 00:04:34,110 Crnx 是我们的领涨股 122 00:04:34,110 --> 00:04:35,129 但这不可行 123 00:04:35,129 --> 00:04:36,350 因流通盘价格 124 00:04:36,350 --> 00:04:37,750 价格不会变动 125 00:04:37,750 --> 00:04:39,250 因为是收购案 126 00:04:39,250 --> 00:04:43,120 下一只是TD TH，现价两美元 127 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:43,959 0.86美元 128 00:04:43,959 --> 00:04:45,339 两百万股流通 129 00:04:45,339 --> 00:04:46,379 这些都没问题 130 00:04:46,379 --> 00:04:48,500 我们快速看一下图表 131 00:04:48,500 --> 00:04:51,379 TD TH 就是这里 132 00:04:51,379 --> 00:04:53,240 如你所见 133 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:55,579 股价在盘后启动上涨 134 00:04:55,579 --> 00:04:59,470 盘前形成双顶后回落 135 00:04:59,470 --> 00:05:00,629 当我坐下来时 136 00:05:00,629 --> 00:05:02,420 大约早上七点 137 00:05:02,420 --> 00:05:04,699 就是这里 138 00:05:06,339 --> 00:05:07,660 股价已见顶 139 00:05:07,660 --> 00:05:10,910 很遗憾我错过行情 140 00:05:10,910 --> 00:05:13,329 时间太早且多在盘后 141 00:05:13,329 --> 00:05:15,029 这笔交易已失效 142 00:05:15,029 --> 00:05:17,790 接下来是Tmg 143 00:05:17,790 --> 00:05:18,029 嗯 144 00:05:18,029 --> 00:05:19,009 从图表可见 145 00:05:19,009 --> 00:05:20,490 价格对我太低了 146 00:05:20,490 --> 00:05:23,360 我的最低门槛通常每股两美元 147 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:27,139 接着是Sugp，1.3美元略低 148 00:05:27,139 --> 00:05:28,459 Bjdx 149 00:05:28,459 --> 00:05:30,319 40美元 Tdic 150 00:05:30,319 --> 00:05:33,658 这就是下一个价格可能值得考虑的标的 151 00:05:33,658 --> 00:05:34,059 所以 152 00:05:34,059 --> 00:05:34,499 我们来看看 153 00:05:34,499 --> 00:05:35,559 让我先拿住这个 154 00:05:35,559 --> 00:05:36,658 把它拖回上方 155 00:05:36,658 --> 00:05:37,870 Tdic 156 00:05:37,870 --> 00:05:39,589 不幸的是这里又出现了 157 00:05:39,589 --> 00:05:41,370 凌晨四点左右出现大幅跳涨 158 00:05:41,370 --> 00:05:43,850 随后逐渐回落并回调 159 00:05:43,850 --> 00:05:45,040 这有点令人沮丧 160 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:46,560 我们没有明显的机会 161 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:48,379 从一方面看令人失望 162 00:05:48,379 --> 00:05:50,100 但从另一方面来看其实不错 163 00:05:50,100 --> 00:05:52,120 因为一旦出现异动 164 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:52,680 走势看起来良好 165 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:54,879 立即获得焦点关注 166 00:05:54,879 --> 00:05:56,399 所有人都会注意到它 167 00:05:56,399 --> 00:05:58,680 今天我们关注silo 168 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:01,959 silo突然出现并开始拉升 169 00:06:01,959 --> 00:06:04,180 从7:30到8:30再到9点 170 00:06:04,180 --> 00:06:05,579 一路涨至9:50 171 00:06:05,579 --> 00:06:07,500 随着价格逐步上升 172 00:06:07,500 --> 00:06:09,420 我观察silo并心想 173 00:06:09,420 --> 00:06:11,389 这值得尝试介入 174 00:06:11,389 --> 00:06:13,389 当前流通盘相对较低 175 00:06:13,389 --> 00:06:15,610 伴随极高相对成交量 176 00:06:15,610 --> 00:06:18,490 当它开始回升时 177 00:06:18,490 --> 00:06:22,209 这里出现了与AI和英伟达相关的利好消息 178 00:06:22,209 --> 00:06:23,490 然而 179 00:06:24,269 --> 00:06:25,949 英伟达开发者计划 180 00:06:25,949 --> 00:06:28,509 我不确定这条消息有多实质性 181 00:06:28,509 --> 00:06:31,170 并非与英伟达公司直接合作 182 00:06:31,170 --> 00:06:34,350 只是注册使用他们的工具 183 00:06:34,350 --> 00:06:36,550 但无论如何这是催化剂 184 00:06:36,550 --> 00:06:38,370 股票开始上涨 185 00:06:38,370 --> 00:06:39,029 随后回落 186 00:06:39,029 --> 00:06:39,750 再次拉升 187 00:06:39,750 --> 00:06:42,110 价格回落时我立即下单 188 00:06:42,110 --> 00:06:43,439 等待突破信号 189 00:06:43,439 --> 00:06:44,639 成功突破9元关口 190 00:06:44,639 --> 00:06:47,459 一路涨至9:50并获利了结 191 00:06:47,459 --> 00:06:49,490 随后股价回落 192 00:06:49,490 --> 00:06:50,610 随后回升 193 00:06:50,610 --> 00:06:52,089 看起来要突破VWAP 194 00:06:52,089 --> 00:06:53,050 但未能突破 195 00:06:53,050 --> 00:06:55,250 这基本宣告了今日走势结束 196 00:06:55,250 --> 00:06:56,490 未能继续上行 197 00:06:56,490 --> 00:06:58,129 尽管有该新闻标题 198 00:06:58,129 --> 00:06:59,668 这略显令人失望 199 00:06:59,668 --> 00:07:03,538 单笔交易在8点入场获利 200 00:07:03,538 --> 00:07:04,119 八十一 201 00:07:04,119 --> 00:07:05,418 寻找突破九点的时机 202 00:07:05,418 --> 00:07:06,139 在九点处下车 203 00:07:06,139 --> 00:07:07,778 零三点在九点五十分后出现 204 00:07:07,778 --> 00:07:09,449 但未能继续上涨 205 00:07:09,449 --> 00:07:12,449 然后我锁定了约四百七十六美元的利润 206 00:07:12,449 --> 00:07:13,050 好的 207 00:07:13,050 --> 00:07:13,908 不错 208 00:07:13,908 --> 00:07:15,689 然后我们进行了交易二 209 00:07:15,689 --> 00:07:17,728 这是在CL O上操作的 210 00:07:17,728 --> 00:07:18,048 现在 211 00:07:18,048 --> 00:07:24,689 可以说CLRO的表现远好于第一笔交易 212 00:07:24,689 --> 00:07:27,089 但对我来说交易起来并不容易 213 00:07:27,089 --> 00:07:29,189 我们来看这张图表 214 00:07:29,189 --> 00:07:30,569 CLRO反弹 215 00:07:30,569 --> 00:07:31,310 回落调整 216 00:07:31,310 --> 00:07:32,230 再次反弹 217 00:07:32,230 --> 00:07:34,209 我在此处启动交易 218 00:07:34,209 --> 00:07:38,288 并买入了三百六十二股 219 00:07:38,288 --> 00:07:39,728 这太令人失望了 220 00:07:39,728 --> 00:07:40,668 当这种情况发生时 221 00:07:40,668 --> 00:07:42,428 我本在等待突破八点五 222 00:07:42,428 --> 00:07:43,879 最终涨至九点 223 00:07:43,879 --> 00:07:45,459 但我只部分成交 224 00:07:45,459 --> 00:07:46,339 价格回落 225 00:07:46,339 --> 00:07:47,079 我不卖出 226 00:07:47,079 --> 00:07:48,439 在此加仓 227 00:07:48,439 --> 00:07:49,540 价格回升 228 00:07:49,540 --> 00:07:51,829 形成双顶后回落 229 00:07:51,829 --> 00:07:53,689 就在这里我被迫止损 230 00:07:53,689 --> 00:07:54,769 所以我亏损了 231 00:07:54,769 --> 00:07:57,550 这次亏损了二百五十九美元 232 00:07:57,550 --> 00:07:58,750 但到收盘时 233 00:07:58,750 --> 00:08:01,620 我盈利两百一十六美元八角 234 00:08:01,620 --> 00:08:03,100 五成胜率 235 00:08:03,100 --> 00:08:05,069 但盈利远大于亏损 236 00:08:05,069 --> 00:08:10,470 目前我的胜率已降至挑战赛中的七十六% 237 00:08:10,470 --> 00:08:11,810 总计三十九笔交易 238 00:08:11,810 --> 00:08:13,649 三十胜九负 239 00:08:13,649 --> 00:08:18,040 账户从初始两万美元增长至九百三十% 240 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:19,000 即十八万美元 241 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:20,939 利润六百零五美元 242 00:08:20,939 --> 00:08:22,899 各方面进展顺利 243 00:08:22,899 --> 00:08:26,339 但今日整体涨幅较小 244 00:08:26,339 --> 00:08:27,040 谢天谢地 245 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:28,610 现在止损离场 246 00:08:28,610 --> 00:08:29,209 嗯 247 00:08:29,209 --> 00:08:30,410 不过另一方面 248 00:08:30,410 --> 00:08:30,769 你可以说 249 00:08:30,769 --> 00:08:32,409 你可以说 250 00:08:32,409 --> 00:08:34,720 我刚刚持有cclro 251 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:37,419 也许这样对我更好 252 00:08:37,419 --> 00:08:41,129 因为它最终涨到了每股十美元的高位 253 00:08:41,129 --> 00:08:42,809 这有点令人恼火 254 00:08:42,809 --> 00:08:44,909 先是出现了第一次反弹被拒 255 00:08:44,909 --> 00:08:47,509 然后最终开始上涨 256 00:08:47,509 --> 00:08:49,208 因为这是一个日内交易账户 257 00:08:49,208 --> 00:08:51,269 我当然可以重新入场 258 00:08:51,269 --> 00:08:53,210 这就是拒绝的信号 259 00:08:53,210 --> 00:08:54,889 然后走势趋于横向 260 00:08:54,889 --> 00:08:56,590 最终又回升了 261 00:08:56,590 --> 00:08:59,259 尝试拒绝再尝试拒绝 262 00:08:59,259 --> 00:09:00,690 然后开始脱离 263 00:09:00,690 --> 00:09:03,009 随后我们终于开始上涨 264 00:09:03,009 --> 00:09:04,730 我最终在主账户交易了 265 00:09:04,730 --> 00:09:06,169 我们会在主账户详细讨论 266 00:09:06,169 --> 00:09:07,029 稍后回顾 267 00:09:07,029 --> 00:09:10,450 但这里出现了双顶或拒绝形态 268 00:09:10,450 --> 00:09:12,490 真的很难交易 269 00:09:12,490 --> 00:09:14,710 无论是大账户还是小账户 270 00:09:14,710 --> 00:09:15,730 这只股票很棘手 271 00:09:15,730 --> 00:09:20,220 所以收盘时我正确止损离场 272 00:09:20,220 --> 00:09:22,590 生存才是关键 273 00:09:22,590 --> 00:09:25,149 我会生存并继续交易 274 00:09:25,149 --> 00:09:29,259 不管它涨到十、十一、十二还是更高 275 00:09:29,259 --> 00:09:30,519 其实无关紧要 276 00:09:30,519 --> 00:09:32,100 承受小额亏损 277 00:09:32,100 --> 00:09:35,350 后续走势不会引发更多情绪 278 00:09:35,350 --> 00:09:38,519 如果承受大额亏损 279 00:09:38,519 --> 00:09:40,600 后续走势会更值得关注 280 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:43,139 这意味着首要任务 281 00:09:43,139 --> 00:09:46,019 你的职责是管理风险 282 00:09:46,019 --> 00:09:48,860 成为波动率猎手和风险管理者 283 00:09:48,860 --> 00:09:50,840 这是交易者的生存法则 284 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:52,330 我再次提醒大家 285 00:09:52,330 --> 00:09:54,730 我的交易结果并非典型，交易有风险 286 00:09:54,730 --> 00:09:57,029 你还没查看两周试用吗 287 00:09:57,029 --> 00:09:59,389 欢迎访问战士交易官网了解 288 00:09:59,389 --> 00:10:00,870 目前我们还有 289 00:10:00,870 --> 00:10:02,710 七夕促销活动正在进行 290 00:10:02,710 --> 00:10:04,318 今晚结束 291 00:10:04,318 --> 00:10:05,278 如果你想查看 292 00:10:05,278 --> 00:10:09,019 七夕促销的战士入门和战士专业会员 293 00:10:09,019 --> 00:10:10,239 随时可以参与 294 00:10:10,239 --> 00:10:13,568 点击加入按钮即可查看会员 295 00:10:13,568 --> 00:10:15,749 或者继续参加两周试用 296 00:10:15,749 --> 00:10:17,869 以20美元体验两周 297 00:10:17,869 --> 00:10:21,109 感受试用期的社区成员体验 298 00:10:21,109 --> 00:10:22,109 或成为正式会员 299 00:10:22,109 --> 00:10:24,089 即可立即访问这些课程 300 00:10:24,089 --> 00:10:27,669 试用成员仅能访问前六章内容 301 00:10:27,669 --> 00:10:30,259 而专业会员可以访问所有内容 302 00:10:30,259 --> 00:10:34,220 您将获得我每日交易中使用的专业软件 303 00:10:34,220 --> 00:10:35,000 用于扫描功能 304 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:36,460 用于查找突发新闻 305 00:10:36,460 --> 00:10:38,159 当然还有聊天室 306 00:10:38,159 --> 00:10:40,059 所以一如既往感谢大家收看 307 00:10:40,059 --> 00:10:43,320 感谢在挑战第十六天点赞支持 308 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:44,519 我将继续努力 309 00:10:44,519 --> 00:10:47,899 明天清晨准时回归第十七天
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