【Financial Education】美光财报炸裂！AMD、ELF与CAKE最新展望

1
00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:02,279
你得翻我的煎饼

2
00:00:02,279 --> 00:00:05,849
今天我要给投资者们带来一个好消息

3
00:00:05,849 --> 00:00:06,169
好的

4
00:00:06,169 --> 00:00:07,410
显然在这个视频开头

5
00:00:07,410 --> 00:00:08,650
我们必须谈谈美光科技

6
00:00:08,650 --> 00:00:14,550
它目前是市场上最重要的股票，至少在短期内

7
00:00:14,550 --> 00:00:15,929
财报已经公布了

8
00:00:15,929 --> 00:00:17,489
我们来谈谈这里的情况

9
00:00:17,489 --> 00:00:19,089
讨论一下令人惊叹的进展

10
00:00:19,089 --> 00:00:20,949
还有你知道的

11
00:00:20,949 --> 00:00:23,789
今天在这段视频里我要分享一点令人担忧的消息

12
00:00:23,789 --> 00:00:25,410
这一切到底会如何发展

13
00:00:25,410 --> 00:00:26,329
嗯，AMD

14
00:00:26,329 --> 00:00:28,109
我们将讨论这对AMD股票意味着什么

15
00:00:28,109 --> 00:00:29,089
未来股价走势

16
00:00:29,089 --> 00:00:33,060
这对AMD确实有重大影响

17
00:00:33,060 --> 00:00:35,420
接下来谈谈芝士蛋糕和ELF

18
00:00:35,420 --> 00:00:37,988
这两只股票都有利好消息

19
00:00:37,988 --> 00:00:39,268
看完这些内容后

20
00:00:39,268 --> 00:00:40,988
我想回应这段视频

21
00:00:40,988 --> 00:00:43,009
来自两小时前的吉恩·穆斯

22
00:00:43,009 --> 00:00:44,149
正在谈论美光科技

23
00:00:44,149 --> 00:00:46,090
然后我要回应这段视频

24
00:00:46,090 --> 00:00:48,109
讨论美光的业绩预测

25
00:00:48,109 --> 00:00:51,259
之后我们将谈到AMD

26
00:00:51,259 --> 00:00:52,960
五万亿美元市值

27
00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:53,979
这现实吗

28
00:00:53,979 --> 00:00:55,240
在我的计划中

29
00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:57,390
对此我的看法

30
00:00:57,390 --> 00:00:58,570
因为这是个大话题

31
00:00:58,570 --> 00:00:58,869
对吧

32
00:00:58,869 --> 00:01:01,628
AMD至今还没达到千亿美元市值

33
00:01:01,628 --> 00:01:03,249
正接近千亿美元

34
00:01:03,249 --> 00:01:04,448
但还没到千亿美元

35
00:01:04,448 --> 00:01:06,088
我们能聊聊五万亿美元吗

36
00:01:06,088 --> 00:01:06,668
AMD

37
00:01:06,668 --> 00:01:08,189
这可是个大事

38
00:01:08,189 --> 00:01:08,790
是的

39
00:01:08,790 --> 00:01:10,030
今天视频内容很多

40
00:01:10,030 --> 00:01:10,989
感谢大家的参与

41
00:01:10,989 --> 00:01:11,329
一如既往

42
00:01:11,329 --> 00:01:11,709
一件事

43
00:01:11,709 --> 00:01:12,590
我只需要你们做一件事

44
00:01:12,590 --> 00:01:13,790
点个赞

45
00:01:13,790 --> 00:01:14,900
快点那个小点赞图标

46
00:01:14,900 --> 00:01:16,159
这就是我需要的

47
00:01:16,159 --> 00:01:17,640
如果你想订阅另一个频道

48
00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:18,879
当然可以订阅

49
00:01:18,879 --> 00:01:20,000
完全免费

50
00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:22,829
我们订阅者数量在不断增加

51
00:01:22,829 --> 00:01:23,590
又创历史新高

52
00:01:23,590 --> 00:01:24,890
感谢大家的到来

53
00:01:24,890 --> 00:01:28,409
顺便说一下，私密群将在几天后关闭新成员加入

54
00:01:28,409 --> 00:01:30,459
如果你想加入我的私密群

55
00:01:30,459 --> 00:01:31,480
现在就要行动

56
00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:32,239
这将被置顶

57
00:01:32,239 --> 00:01:32,760
在下方评论

58
00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:34,340
获取所有课程大纲

59
00:01:34,340 --> 00:01:35,140
私密Discord

60
00:01:35,140 --> 00:01:35,319
聊天

61
00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:36,140
千倍x股票

62
00:01:36,140 --> 00:01:37,739
会员专属周更视频

63
00:01:37,739 --> 00:01:38,400
看准行情

64
00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:39,459
我在构建我的投资组合

65
00:01:39,459 --> 00:01:40,099
所有优质内容

66
00:01:40,099 --> 00:01:44,899
女士们先生们，注意了

67
00:01:45,718 --> 00:01:46,959
这些财报数据太疯狂了

68
00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:48,638
这简直完美至极

69
00:01:48,638 --> 00:01:48,918
有

70
00:01:48,918 --> 00:01:50,319
呃

71
00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:53,900
营收增长346%

72
00:01:53,900 --> 00:01:56,620
346%

73
00:01:56,620 --> 00:01:59,780
346%

74
00:02:00,219 --> 00:02:04,519
而柯格斯只上涨11%

75
00:02:05,079 --> 00:02:06,319
这其实是个坏消息

76
00:02:06,319 --> 00:02:09,180
稍后我会解释为何这是坏消息

77
00:02:09,180 --> 00:02:10,780
但这太离谱了

78
00:02:10,780 --> 00:02:12,900
在我18年的股市生涯中

79
00:02:12,900 --> 00:02:14,680
从未见过公司报告

80
00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:16,039
营收增长至300%

81
00:02:16,039 --> 00:02:16,990
以上

82
00:02:16,990 --> 00:02:19,110
而成本仅增11%

83
00:02:19,110 --> 00:02:19,550
从未有过

84
00:02:19,550 --> 00:02:20,539
这太疯狂了

85
00:02:20,539 --> 00:02:23,939
毛利率年增899%

86
00:02:23,939 --> 00:02:24,939
同比

87
00:02:24,939 --> 00:02:27,289
研发费用仅增36%

88
00:02:27,289 --> 00:02:27,969
呃

89
00:02:27,969 --> 00:02:30,590
销售及管理费用仅增28%

90
00:02:30,590 --> 00:02:35,389
营业利润增长1436%

91
00:02:35,669 --> 00:02:41,710
净利润飙升1398%至2

92
00:02:41,710 --> 00:02:42,569
八亿八亿

93
00:02:42,569 --> 00:02:44,150
从18亿增至20亿

94
00:02:44,150 --> 00:02:45,389
从一点

95
00:02:45,389 --> 00:02:47,819
去年同期为18亿美元

96
00:02:47,819 --> 00:02:49,060
这些数据简直离谱

97
00:02:49,060 --> 00:02:49,800
德尔普斯

98
00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,650
1369%的增长没错

99
00:02:52,650 --> 00:02:54,030
所有人都预期

100
00:02:54,030 --> 00:02:54,710
惊人数据

101
00:02:54,710 --> 00:02:56,789
他们甚至比人们预期的更加疯狂

102
00:02:56,789 --> 00:02:58,610
现在就要预见结果

103
00:02:58,610 --> 00:03:00,729
从这个角度看一切都很好

104
00:03:00,729 --> 00:03:01,449
这简直荒谬

105
00:03:01,449 --> 00:03:04,019
收入激增一千三百个百分点

106
00:03:04,019 --> 00:03:05,739
营收增长三百四十六个百分点

107
00:03:05,739 --> 00:03:07,778
坏消息来了

108
00:03:07,778 --> 00:03:12,229
好的，我总是喜欢从多角度分析

109
00:03:12,229 --> 00:03:12,610
没错

110
00:03:12,610 --> 00:03:15,009
你知道市场里有很多看空的人

111
00:03:15,009 --> 00:03:17,508
他们总是用半杯水的角度看问题

112
00:03:17,508 --> 00:03:19,248
没错，也有很多人像碗一样

113
00:03:19,248 --> 00:03:21,348
只从积极面看待事物

114
00:03:21,348 --> 00:03:23,508
当负面事情发生时

115
00:03:23,508 --> 00:03:24,829
他们完全措手不及

116
00:03:24,829 --> 00:03:26,188
没错，他们不明白

117
00:03:26,188 --> 00:03:27,028
为什么会这样

118
00:03:27,028 --> 00:03:28,068
为什么会这样发生

119
00:03:28,068 --> 00:03:29,288
为什么这只股票不动

120
00:03:29,288 --> 00:03:30,579
为什么会这样啊

121
00:03:30,579 --> 00:03:32,899
让我解释这里的情况

122
00:03:32,899 --> 00:03:34,459
关于美光科技及其发展

123
00:03:34,459 --> 00:03:37,750
以及美光股票未来几年的走势

124
00:03:37,750 --> 00:03:40,430
不仅仅是明天的微盘走势

125
00:03:40,430 --> 00:03:42,810
对吧，或者下周或下月

126
00:03:42,810 --> 00:03:44,469
未来几年的走势如何

127
00:03:44,469 --> 00:03:45,789
整个局势将如何发展

128
00:03:45,789 --> 00:03:50,149
当你看到这些公司营收增长三百多%

129
00:03:50,149 --> 00:03:50,748
其成本费用上升

130
00:03:50,748 --> 00:03:51,449
十一个百分点

131
00:03:51,449 --> 00:03:56,030
这实际上意味着处于巨大泡沫中

132
00:03:56,030 --> 00:03:57,830
巨大的泡沫

133
00:03:57,830 --> 00:03:58,500
好的

134
00:03:58,500 --> 00:04:03,120
没有压倒性的产品需求是不可能的

135
00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:06,740
并且能以该价格出售产品

136
00:04:06,740 --> 00:04:08,479
没错，因为事实是

137
00:04:08,479 --> 00:04:08,919
你知道的

138
00:04:08,919 --> 00:04:10,379
成本费用仅上涨了

139
00:04:10,379 --> 00:04:11,960
这点几乎可以忽略

140
00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:13,180
完全不值一提

141
00:04:13,180 --> 00:04:13,840
没错

142
00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:14,949
嗯

143
00:04:15,310 --> 00:04:15,949
可以说

144
00:04:15,949 --> 00:04:18,750
即使成本费用上涨

145
00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:20,579
我是说

146
00:04:20,579 --> 00:04:20,980
让我们

147
00:04:20,980 --> 00:04:24,100
假设一个数字比如百分之五十

148
00:04:24,100 --> 00:04:27,060
假设成本费用上涨了百分之五十

149
00:04:27,060 --> 00:04:30,779
即使这样数字仍然太低

150
00:04:30,779 --> 00:04:32,439
考虑到营收三百四十六%

151
00:04:32,439 --> 00:04:33,160
6%

152
00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:33,740
好的

153
00:04:33,740 --> 00:04:36,939
所以从短期来看

154
00:04:36,939 --> 00:04:38,040
比如接下来的

155
00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:39,699
我们可以称之为一到两年

156
00:04:39,699 --> 00:04:41,600
他们的客户已经被

157
00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:43,408
你知道吧

158
00:04:43,408 --> 00:04:46,848
他们现在可以成为所有客户的霸王

159
00:04:46,848 --> 00:04:49,869
接下来一到两年他们可以随意定价

160
00:04:49,869 --> 00:04:53,649
他们的客户也会支付接下来一到两年

161
00:04:53,649 --> 00:04:58,098
对吧，所以他们就像霸王般横行

162
00:04:58,098 --> 00:04:59,699
但他们并非唯一

163
00:04:59,699 --> 00:05:01,918
目前整个内存芯片市场都是如此

164
00:05:01,918 --> 00:05:03,939
截至

165
00:05:03,939 --> 00:05:04,639
你知道的

166
00:05:04,639 --> 00:05:05,220
我们称之为

167
00:05:05,220 --> 00:05:06,209
明天

168
00:05:06,209 --> 00:05:13,050
明天全球市值前十的公司中

169
00:05:13,050 --> 00:05:17,288
将有三家是内存芯片公司

170
00:05:17,288 --> 00:05:17,949
好的

171
00:05:17,949 --> 00:05:19,488
这意味着处于巨大泡沫中

172
00:05:19,488 --> 00:05:20,408
没有任何理由

173
00:05:20,408 --> 00:05:24,348
三家内存芯片公司应占据全球市值前十

174
00:05:24,348 --> 00:05:27,048
但短期内就是这样

175
00:05:27,048 --> 00:05:29,348
好的，所以这很棒

176
00:05:29,348 --> 00:05:31,809
美光的业绩在未来几年将非常亮眼

177
00:05:31,809 --> 00:05:38,250
问题在于芯片需求放缓时

178
00:05:38,250 --> 00:05:41,939
这可能至少还有一到两年

179
00:05:41,939 --> 00:05:44,959
那时将面临利润率压力

180
00:05:44,959 --> 00:05:48,639
并经历一段艰难周期

181
00:05:48,639 --> 00:05:50,000
关于美光股票

182
00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:52,759
很多人肯定想知道美光股票走势

183
00:05:52,759 --> 00:05:53,079
好的

184
00:05:53,079 --> 00:05:55,029
接下来几年这意味着什么

185
00:05:55,029 --> 00:05:56,189
我的观点是

186
00:05:56,189 --> 00:05:59,350
作为市场十八年参与者，见过

187
00:05:59,350 --> 00:06:01,589
公司涨跌起伏

188
00:06:01,589 --> 00:06:03,980
利润飙升

189
00:06:05,129 --> 00:06:08,490
各种情况，我的看法是

190
00:06:08,490 --> 00:06:12,430
美光股票今年剩余时间及未来几年的走势

191
00:06:12,430 --> 00:06:12,689
好的

192
00:06:12,689 --> 00:06:14,680
我认为

193
00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:17,519
美光股票今年将见顶

194
00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:19,680
今年利润不会见顶

195
00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:21,379
利润仍处于

196
00:06:21,379 --> 00:06:24,060
我估计大概两年后见顶

197
00:06:24,060 --> 00:06:24,500
好的

198
00:06:24,500 --> 00:06:25,160
可能三年

199
00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:26,850
我们可以讨论这个

200
00:06:26,850 --> 00:06:32,339
但我的观点是股价今年见顶

201
00:06:32,339 --> 00:06:36,420
接下来的一到两年内发生的事情不会像

202
00:06:36,420 --> 00:06:36,620
哦

203
00:06:36,620 --> 00:06:37,139
微盘股

204
00:06:37,139 --> 00:06:37,860
然后暴跌

205
00:06:37,860 --> 00:06:38,579
它将达到峰值

206
00:06:38,579 --> 00:06:39,379
然后直接暴跌

207
00:06:39,379 --> 00:06:39,980
这不是正确的路径

208
00:06:39,980 --> 00:06:40,399
这样才有效

209
00:06:40,399 --> 00:06:40,949
好的

210
00:06:40,949 --> 00:06:42,709
接下来会发生的是

211
00:06:42,709 --> 00:06:44,209
你将经历一到两年的

212
00:06:44,209 --> 00:06:44,959
震荡

213
00:06:44,959 --> 00:06:45,720
好的

214
00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:48,819
所以想象微盘股在今年某个时间点达到峰值

215
00:06:48,819 --> 00:06:51,560
然后你抛出十二百十五百二千

216
00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:52,939
随便你选哪个数字

217
00:06:52,939 --> 00:06:54,689
好的达到峰值

218
00:06:54,689 --> 00:06:58,000
然后基本经历一到两年的震荡

219
00:06:58,000 --> 00:06:59,560
股价上涨

220
00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:00,100
然后下跌

221
00:07:00,100 --> 00:07:02,060
但整体没有太大变化

222
00:07:02,060 --> 00:07:06,230
与此同时利润表现非常出色

223
00:07:06,230 --> 00:07:08,430
大家都在说赚得很多钱

224
00:07:08,430 --> 00:07:09,670
他们正在建设新工厂

225
00:07:09,670 --> 00:07:09,829
啊

226
00:07:09,829 --> 00:07:10,610
这太令人兴奋了

227
00:07:10,610 --> 00:07:13,468
对的股票却毫无反应

228
00:07:13,468 --> 00:07:14,088
人们说

229
00:07:14,088 --> 00:07:14,569
呃

230
00:07:14,569 --> 00:07:16,009
我们什么时候能在股票上赚钱啊

231
00:07:16,009 --> 00:07:18,088
你怎么看

232
00:07:18,088 --> 00:07:19,399
英伟达的情况如何

233
00:07:19,399 --> 00:07:21,240
这正是英伟达发生的情况

234
00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:21,680
没错

235
00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,019
英伟达股价疯狂上涨

236
00:07:24,019 --> 00:07:24,379
没错

237
00:07:24,379 --> 00:07:26,329
数据惊人

238
00:07:26,329 --> 00:07:28,850
数据持续不断令人震惊

239
00:07:28,850 --> 00:07:31,350
英伟达现在股价相同

240
00:07:31,350 --> 00:07:33,399
今天你可以以相同价格买入股票

241
00:07:33,399 --> 00:07:37,418
就像去年万圣节前购买时一样

242
00:07:37,418 --> 00:07:39,718
并非因为数据变差

243
00:07:39,718 --> 00:07:40,819
数据极其优异

244
00:07:40,819 --> 00:07:42,598
詹森总在各种会议上

245
00:07:42,598 --> 00:07:45,119
不断强调AI是最大变革

246
00:07:45,119 --> 00:07:46,089
你知道的

247
00:07:46,089 --> 00:07:47,509
我们芯片需求异常旺盛

248
00:07:47,509 --> 00:07:49,870
所有这些数据都表现优异

249
00:07:49,870 --> 00:07:51,189
这对股价意味着什么

250
00:07:51,189 --> 00:07:52,360
毫无影响

251
00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:55,000
因此英伟达正处于这种低迷周期中

252
00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:57,699
你知道通常持续一到两年

253
00:07:57,699 --> 00:08:00,110
之后会发生什么呢

254
00:08:00,110 --> 00:08:02,250
那就是下行周期的到来

255
00:08:02,250 --> 00:08:04,269
但任何认为

256
00:08:04,269 --> 00:08:04,910
好的

257
00:08:04,910 --> 00:08:06,709
嗯，美光科技

258
00:08:06,709 --> 00:08:08,189
你知道股价可能见顶

259
00:08:08,189 --> 00:08:10,509
所以我可以买入明年看跌期权

260
00:08:12,189 --> 00:08:16,399
从交易角度来看

261
00:08:16,399 --> 00:08:18,459
或许会下跌20%

262
00:08:18,459 --> 00:08:20,189
但不

263
00:08:20,189 --> 00:08:20,790
不是这样

264
00:08:20,790 --> 00:08:21,490
这方法可行

265
00:08:21,490 --> 00:08:23,709
股价将见顶

266
00:08:23,709 --> 00:08:26,709
随后一到两年震荡期

267
00:08:26,709 --> 00:08:29,370
然后股价将下跌

268
00:08:29,370 --> 00:08:31,889
很多人误以为

269
00:08:31,889 --> 00:08:32,129
哦

270
00:08:32,129 --> 00:08:34,570
股价直线上涨后暴跌再涨再暴跌

271
00:08:34,570 --> 00:08:35,129
不

272
00:08:35,129 --> 00:08:39,570
会像这样突然爆发

273
00:08:39,570 --> 00:08:40,669
就是这样发展的

274
00:08:40,669 --> 00:08:41,169
好的

275
00:08:41,169 --> 00:08:42,409
所以嗯

276
00:08:42,409 --> 00:08:44,110
这很重要

277
00:08:44,110 --> 00:08:46,090
所有公司都会经历这个过程

278
00:08:46,090 --> 00:08:47,450
英伟达也是如此

279
00:08:47,450 --> 00:08:49,460
AMD也会这样

280
00:08:49,460 --> 00:08:51,019
AMD也会这样

281
00:08:51,019 --> 00:08:51,779
现在还不是

282
00:08:51,779 --> 00:08:54,039
但AMD和A股最终也会如此

283
00:08:54,039 --> 00:08:54,620
我最爱的

284
00:08:54,620 --> 00:08:55,120
AMD

285
00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:55,580
哦我爱

286
00:08:55,580 --> 00:08:56,059
AMD

287
00:08:56,059 --> 00:08:57,720
同样会发生在这个股票上

288
00:08:57,720 --> 00:08:58,759
只是现在还没到

289
00:08:58,759 --> 00:08:59,519
还有

290
00:08:59,519 --> 00:09:01,559
我们将在视频中讨论AMD

291
00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:02,879
我们现在要讨论AMD

292
00:09:02,879 --> 00:09:04,440
之后还会更多讨论AMD

293
00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:06,299
我将解释AMD未来几年股价走势

294
00:09:06,299 --> 00:09:08,139
未来数年股价走势

295
00:09:08,139 --> 00:09:09,480
稍后视频中会讲

296
00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:11,820
关于AMD短期情况

297
00:09:11,820 --> 00:09:12,820
这是好消息

298
00:09:12,820 --> 00:09:13,259
我说

299
00:09:13,259 --> 00:09:13,539
你知道的

300
00:09:13,539 --> 00:09:16,980
这将带动所有半导体股上涨

301
00:09:16,980 --> 00:09:17,720
嗯

302
00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:19,820
这将带来更多动力

303
00:09:19,820 --> 00:09:24,250
在半导体股开始逐渐

304
00:09:24,250 --> 00:09:25,529
我不想说它们开始反转

305
00:09:25,529 --> 00:09:27,429
但它们开始失去一些动力

306
00:09:27,429 --> 00:09:31,250
这必将全面推动整个领域并明确展现

307
00:09:31,250 --> 00:09:31,789
好的

308
00:09:31,789 --> 00:09:37,210
这些公司在未来将迎来重大增长，包括amd

309
00:09:37,850 --> 00:09:38,789
不要感到意外

310
00:09:38,789 --> 00:09:40,730
如果之前看到该股票前有六

311
00:09:40,730 --> 00:09:42,889
你知道的，就像我多次提到的amd

312
00:09:42,889 --> 00:09:43,679
你知道的

313
00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,679
我们将讨论amd未来几年的发展方向

314
00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:48,240
稍后在视频中会提到

315
00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:50,470
就今年amd而言

316
00:09:50,470 --> 00:09:51,309
不要感到意外

317
00:09:51,309 --> 00:09:52,330
如果股价突破一千

318
00:09:52,330 --> 00:09:53,509
就像我之前说的

319
00:09:53,509 --> 00:09:54,669
不要感到意外

320
00:09:54,669 --> 00:09:56,629
你知道andy只是

321
00:09:56,629 --> 00:09:57,289
你知道的

322
00:09:57,289 --> 00:09:58,570
这里有很多动力

323
00:09:58,570 --> 00:10:00,149
这里有很多动力

324
00:10:00,149 --> 00:10:02,389
他们甚至还没达到惊人

325
00:10:02,389 --> 00:10:06,288
所有兆芯的财报已开始发布惊人数据和aes

326
00:10:06,288 --> 00:10:07,889
你已经看到这一点

327
00:10:07,889 --> 00:10:09,229
这些数据令人震惊

328
00:10:09,229 --> 00:10:10,340
所有指引

329
00:10:10,340 --> 00:10:11,899
他们刚发布了震撼表现

330
00:10:11,899 --> 00:10:13,500
我们还没到那一步

331
00:10:13,500 --> 00:10:15,019
对于amd

332
00:10:15,620 --> 00:10:17,820
随着震撼数据的到来

333
00:10:17,820 --> 00:10:22,600
今年能否看到amd股价一千美元

334
00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:23,840
为何不呢

335
00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:26,139
为何不呢

336
00:10:26,139 --> 00:10:27,220
接下来是

337
00:10:27,220 --> 00:10:27,720
嗯

338
00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:28,700
蛋糕精灵

339
00:10:28,700 --> 00:10:29,779
这些股票怎么了

340
00:10:29,779 --> 00:10:32,179
精灵传来好消息

341
00:10:32,179 --> 00:10:34,419
蛋糕也有好消息

342
00:10:34,419 --> 00:10:39,409
精灵现已上涨约三十

343
00:10:39,409 --> 00:10:39,750
哦

344
00:10:39,750 --> 00:10:43,129
实际上较近期低点上涨超30%

345
00:10:43,129 --> 00:10:44,679
它刚刚达到

346
00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:47,039
大约三周前

347
00:10:47,039 --> 00:10:48,419
大约三周前

348
00:10:48,419 --> 00:10:49,690
精灵触及低点

349
00:10:49,690 --> 00:10:53,190
从那时起股价飙升超30%

350
00:10:53,190 --> 00:10:56,350
没错，精灵开始恢复动力

351
00:10:56,350 --> 00:10:59,600
它对精灵股票价格做了些有趣的事情

352
00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:01,679
它从不让人失望

353
00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:02,600
看起来确实如此

354
00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,299
股票遭到大幅抛售

355
00:11:05,419 --> 00:11:08,019
原因可能是关税问题

356
00:11:08,019 --> 00:11:08,860
或者任何其他因素

357
00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:14,909
对了，精灵股票还会发生的是

358
00:11:14,909 --> 00:11:16,450
他们通常会发布业绩指引

359
00:11:16,450 --> 00:11:21,289
指引显得缺乏亮点

360
00:11:21,289 --> 00:11:23,370
而全年他们逐渐实现

361
00:11:23,370 --> 00:11:24,690
并超越这些数据

362
00:11:24,690 --> 00:11:25,549
超越这些数据

363
00:11:25,549 --> 00:11:26,740
并在指引中上调目标

364
00:11:26,740 --> 00:11:27,559
随着年度推进

365
00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:30,600
随之而来的是越来越多的兴奋和动能涌入精灵股票

366
00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:32,399
随着股票全年走势

367
00:11:32,399 --> 00:11:36,549
顺便说一句，这种模式过去几年让阿尔法受益

368
00:11:36,549 --> 00:11:38,509
但明年不要指望这个

369
00:11:38,509 --> 00:11:39,629
所以不要以为

370
00:11:39,629 --> 00:11:40,149
哦

371
00:11:40,149 --> 00:11:41,490
精灵股票会下跌

372
00:11:41,490 --> 00:11:42,090
你知道的

373
00:11:42,090 --> 00:11:43,590
明年第一季度

374
00:11:43,590 --> 00:11:44,049
可能会

375
00:11:44,049 --> 00:11:45,450
但你知道的

376
00:11:45,450 --> 00:11:46,690
只需理解趋势

377
00:11:46,690 --> 00:11:48,309
直到趋势不再持续

378
00:11:48,309 --> 00:11:48,730
好的

379
00:11:48,730 --> 00:11:50,690
但这就是它的运作方式

380
00:11:50,690 --> 00:11:52,830
我认为今年会再次如此

381
00:11:52,830 --> 00:11:55,339
精灵将持续实现

382
00:11:55,339 --> 00:11:59,298
超越业绩并发布强劲指引，全年提升数据

383
00:11:59,298 --> 00:11:59,938
然后大家会说

384
00:11:59,938 --> 00:12:00,259
哦

385
00:12:00,259 --> 00:12:02,139
精灵今年的业绩其实很棒

386
00:12:02,139 --> 00:12:03,340
他们就是这样操作的

387
00:12:03,340 --> 00:12:07,578
他们年初总是给出极度保守的指引

388
00:12:07,578 --> 00:12:08,458
然后他们实现目标

389
00:12:08,458 --> 00:12:09,198
超越业绩

390
00:12:09,198 --> 00:12:10,139
超越指引

391
00:12:10,139 --> 00:12:10,938
然后大家会说

392
00:12:10,938 --> 00:12:11,158
哦

393
00:12:11,158 --> 00:12:12,178
精灵的情况真是棒极了

394
00:12:12,178 --> 00:12:13,219
股票迎来动能

395
00:12:13,219 --> 00:12:15,298
接下来股价可能涨到上百美元

396
00:12:15,298 --> 00:12:15,850
好的

397
00:12:15,850 --> 00:12:17,149
关于芝士蛋糕工厂

398
00:12:17,149 --> 00:12:17,929
那个已经触底了

399
00:12:17,929 --> 00:12:18,289
嗯

400
00:12:18,289 --> 00:12:22,049
今天这里应该创历史新高

401
00:12:22,049 --> 00:12:23,830
蛋糕股非常令人兴奋

402
00:12:23,830 --> 00:12:27,470
你知道这只股票持续受到大量买盘推动

403
00:12:27,470 --> 00:12:29,649
因为蛋糕的情况就像

404
00:12:29,649 --> 00:12:31,269
我只是

405
00:12:31,750 --> 00:12:32,629
为什么要卖出

406
00:12:32,629 --> 00:12:34,549
蛋糕的估值是不是太低了

407
00:12:34,549 --> 00:12:37,240
他们拥有未来十年的两大增长引擎

408
00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:37,720
是的

409
00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:38,720
这就是蛋糕的魅力所在

410
00:12:38,720 --> 00:12:39,600
他们不受周期性影响

411
00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:40,220
他们不像

412
00:12:40,220 --> 00:12:40,480
哦

413
00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:41,019
你知道的

414
00:12:41,019 --> 00:12:43,279
未来两年的盈利将非常强劲

415
00:12:43,279 --> 00:12:44,799
然后盈利会暴跌

416
00:12:44,799 --> 00:12:46,259
这不符合实际情况

417
00:12:47,259 --> 00:12:48,600
因为他们是餐饮公司

418
00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:50,259
他们拥有北意大利花童品牌

419
00:12:50,259 --> 00:12:51,600
还有其他概念店

420
00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:55,929
他们拥有十年以上的扩张跑道

421
00:12:55,929 --> 00:12:58,909
随着更多餐厅概念的扩展

422
00:12:58,909 --> 00:13:01,149
利润率和营收将持续增长

423
00:13:01,149 --> 00:13:02,570
利润增长速度也会提升

424
00:13:02,570 --> 00:13:05,669
这将是渐进式的上升

425
00:13:05,669 --> 00:13:06,990
不会出现

426
00:13:06,990 --> 00:13:10,809
蛋糕每股收益突然翻倍的情况

427
00:13:10,809 --> 00:13:12,379
这不是公司的运作方式

428
00:13:12,379 --> 00:13:15,019
但他们能否持续多年增长

429
00:13:15,019 --> 00:13:16,460
保持股息发放

430
00:13:16,460 --> 00:13:17,080
你知道的

431
00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:18,519
绝对在扩张中

432
00:13:18,519 --> 00:13:21,279
这是一只完美的稳健股票

433
00:13:21,279 --> 00:13:22,970
嗯

434
00:13:23,529 --> 00:13:25,509
这只股票仍然估值偏低

435
00:13:25,509 --> 00:13:25,889
你知道的

436
00:13:25,889 --> 00:13:29,120
他们未来十年有持续增长空间

437
00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:30,700
这非常令人振奋

438
00:13:30,700 --> 00:13:31,620
显然对k来说

439
00:13:31,620 --> 00:13:32,399
好的好的

440
00:13:32,399 --> 00:13:33,960
我们来看看华尔街的反应

441
00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:35,519
然后讨论amd股票

442
00:13:35,519 --> 00:13:36,399
接下来是nex股票

443
00:13:36,399 --> 00:13:37,480
目标价五万亿

444
00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:39,919
未来几年股价会如何发展

445
00:13:39,919 --> 00:13:40,690
他们确实

446
00:13:40,690 --> 00:13:45,330
这些结果出现在市场略显紧张的时刻

447
00:13:45,330 --> 00:13:49,450
在人工智能交易和部分数据可持续性方面

448
00:13:49,450 --> 00:13:53,509
回顾20分钟前迈克·罗恩的分析

449
00:13:53,509 --> 00:13:57,049
这反映了怎样的市场情绪

450
00:13:57,289 --> 00:13:57,690
我的意思是

451
00:13:57,690 --> 00:14:00,529
我认为这说明我们比大多数人预期的更早

452
00:14:00,529 --> 00:14:02,450
而我的判断是一年前做出的

453
00:14:02,450 --> 00:14:04,570
我们正处于这场AI建设的第三局

454
00:14:04,570 --> 00:14:06,700
我现在认为我们已进入第二局

455
00:14:06,700 --> 00:14:09,220
特别是看他们公布的营收指引

456
00:14:09,220 --> 00:14:13,080
他们给出的三百多亿数据实在令人震惊

457
00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:14,220
先生

458
00:14:16,980 --> 00:14:18,779
我们难道忘了怎么算数学了

459
00:14:18,779 --> 00:14:21,970
难道我们忘了怎么算数学吗

460
00:14:21,970 --> 00:14:25,070
看看亚马逊今年在资本支出上的投入

461
00:14:25,070 --> 00:14:27,919
看看亚马逊今年预计的净利润

462
00:14:27,919 --> 00:14:31,000
看看Meta预计的资本支出在这里

463
00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:32,419
看看他们的净利润预测

464
00:14:32,419 --> 00:14:33,179
给谷歌也做一下分析

465
00:14:33,179 --> 00:14:34,100
给微软也做一下分析

466
00:14:34,100 --> 00:14:35,549
浏览所有公司的数据列表

467
00:14:35,549 --> 00:14:37,529
这种状况显然不可持续

468
00:14:37,529 --> 00:14:37,870
哦对啊

469
00:14:37,870 --> 00:14:39,730
我们只处于建设进程的第二局

470
00:14:39,730 --> 00:14:45,120
这些公司已不得不通过举债和增发股票

471
00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,059
只为维持资本支出

472
00:14:47,059 --> 00:14:52,100
因为他们连利润都不足以覆盖开支

473
00:14:52,100 --> 00:14:55,589
Meta可能赚不到

474
00:14:55,589 --> 00:14:58,460
今年预计净利润约九十亿美元

475
00:14:58,460 --> 00:15:03,328
扎克伯格可能要在资本支出上花一百四十亿

476
00:15:03,928 --> 00:15:04,928
这相差五十亿

477
00:15:06,928 --> 00:15:08,808
差距达五十亿美元

478
00:15:09,750 --> 00:15:11,350
所以扎克伯格要么

479
00:15:11,350 --> 00:15:14,730
需要从资产负债表中消耗五十亿美元现金

480
00:15:14,730 --> 00:15:16,870
我不确定他们有没有五十亿现金

481
00:15:16,870 --> 00:15:18,559
对且现金储备为零

482
00:15:18,559 --> 00:15:20,980
要么必须借入五十亿美元债务

483
00:15:20,980 --> 00:15:23,039
要么大量增发股票

484
00:15:23,039 --> 00:15:24,980
稀释五十亿美元股东价值

485
00:15:24,980 --> 00:15:29,639
必须以五十亿美元投入并凭空解决

486
00:15:29,639 --> 00:15:32,639
同时要记住

487
00:15:32,639 --> 00:15:35,120
这些公司都计划明年再次提升资本开支

488
00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:36,480
明年

489
00:15:37,370 --> 00:15:40,049
你开始发现巨大的空间即将耗尽

490
00:15:40,049 --> 00:15:40,370
哦对啊

491
00:15:40,370 --> 00:15:41,090
我们还能继续维持

492
00:15:41,090 --> 00:15:42,710
但显然无法持续

493
00:15:42,710 --> 00:15:45,240
数学上不可能

494
00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:46,940
确实如此

495
00:15:46,940 --> 00:15:47,679
所以

496
00:15:47,679 --> 00:15:48,320
嗯

497
00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:50,899
理解这个游戏的关键点

498
00:15:50,899 --> 00:15:53,899
这也是为什么我们已超过第二局

499
00:15:53,899 --> 00:15:55,360
我们已深入第二阶段

500
00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:57,080
这简直是个荒谬的论断

501
00:15:57,080 --> 00:16:00,159
如果像Meta、微软、谷歌、亚马逊这些公司

502
00:16:00,159 --> 00:16:01,039
所有这些公司

503
00:16:01,039 --> 00:16:05,828
如果他们没有投入这么多资金，再加上Anthropic和OpenAI等公司

504
00:16:05,828 --> 00:16:06,688
那么你可以这么说

505
00:16:06,688 --> 00:16:06,908
好吧

506
00:16:06,908 --> 00:16:08,349
我们还有很大的发展空间

507
00:16:08,349 --> 00:16:11,870
但这些公司已经投入了更多资金

508
00:16:11,870 --> 00:16:13,710
记住Manthropic还没盈利

509
00:16:13,710 --> 00:16:14,870
OpenAI也还没盈利

510
00:16:14,870 --> 00:16:16,110
这些公司都在巨额亏损

511
00:16:16,110 --> 00:16:22,399
但即使是盈利的公司，利润也远远无法覆盖资本支出

512
00:16:22,399 --> 00:16:26,769
说我们处于第二局简直是荒谬

513
00:16:26,769 --> 00:16:27,450
哇

514
00:16:27,450 --> 00:16:29,509
我们已经远远超过了第二局

515
00:16:29,509 --> 00:16:33,100
但八月季度实现了40%的营收增长

516
00:16:33,100 --> 00:16:36,200
这相比五月季度的300%多

517
00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:38,399
他们刚公布的五月季度数据

518
00:16:38,399 --> 00:16:40,559
这充分展示了可持续性

519
00:16:40,559 --> 00:16:42,659
因为游戏中的变化就像

520
00:16:42,659 --> 00:16:47,340
我们从第二局直接跳到第六局几乎一夜之间

521
00:16:47,340 --> 00:16:50,259
因为公司资本支出增长得太快

522
00:16:50,259 --> 00:16:54,389
去年2025年Meta从

523
00:16:54,389 --> 00:17:00,090
他们每年投入200亿美元资本支出

524
00:17:00,090 --> 00:17:01,879
突然去年变成720亿美元

525
00:17:01,879 --> 00:17:04,180
我记得数字是720亿美元

526
00:17:04,180 --> 00:17:06,259
这个数字简直离谱

527
00:17:06,259 --> 00:17:08,160
我们从第二局直接跳到第六局

528
00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:09,529
几乎一夜之间

529
00:17:09,529 --> 00:17:12,190
因为它们都变得疯狂了

530
00:17:12,190 --> 00:17:14,798
而今年它们再次变得疯狂

531
00:17:14,798 --> 00:17:15,898
你知道的

532
00:17:15,898 --> 00:17:18,298
从720亿美元增长到现在的1400亿美元

533
00:17:18,298 --> 00:17:19,378
再次翻倍

534
00:17:19,378 --> 00:17:21,420
现在看来

535
00:17:21,420 --> 00:17:24,180
明年能否从1400亿增至2800亿

536
00:17:24,180 --> 00:17:26,160
不可能

537
00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:28,199
他们做不到

538
00:17:28,249 --> 00:17:33,619
他们要如何筹集1500亿美元债务来支撑增长

539
00:17:33,619 --> 00:17:35,880
在这样的增速下持续发展

540
00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:39,279
在规模法则面前仍令人惊叹

541
00:17:39,279 --> 00:17:42,579
我想快速推进到今晚的财报重点

542
00:17:42,579 --> 00:17:45,539
今晚财报的核心内容是

543
00:17:45,539 --> 00:17:47,388
这对AI板块意味着什么

544
00:17:47,388 --> 00:17:49,690
我想具体分析一下

545
00:17:49,690 --> 00:17:53,049
正如Matt之前提到的超大规模客户

546
00:17:53,049 --> 00:17:55,579
贡献了美光科技约50%的营收

547
00:17:55,579 --> 00:17:57,279
超大规模客户明年

548
00:17:57,279 --> 00:18:00,039
市场预期它们将增加资本支出

549
00:18:00,039 --> 00:18:02,119
这实际上是整个基础设施领域的指标

550
00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,439
当前增长22%

551
00:18:04,439 --> 00:18:10,359
这与2026年日历年的80%增长相比

552
00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:12,400
有趣的是几周前

553
00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:16,119
从80%骤降至22%大幅放缓

554
00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:17,359
剧烈减速

555
00:18:18,559 --> 00:18:21,119
这对下一年意味着什么

556
00:18:21,450 --> 00:18:22,490
Cap X保持平稳

557
00:18:24,049 --> 00:18:26,470
可能个位数增长

558
00:18:26,869 --> 00:18:29,390
这就是芯片周期显著放缓的转折点

559
00:18:29,390 --> 00:18:34,470
这也是这些内存芯片公司利润惨遭重创

560
00:18:34,470 --> 00:18:35,480
就在那时

561
00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:38,200
这就是每次发生的规律

562
00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:39,960
明年预测数字是15

563
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:41,829
我们已看到逐步上升

564
00:18:41,829 --> 00:18:43,910
但今晚真正看到的是

565
00:18:43,910 --> 00:18:44,970
这就是关键结论

566
00:18:44,970 --> 00:18:45,930
凯蒂关于你的问题

567
00:18:45,930 --> 00:18:50,660
市场是否开始适应更高增长

568
00:18:50,660 --> 00:18:55,220
超大规模公司及更广泛科技股40%以上增速

569
00:18:55,220 --> 00:19:00,970
这意味着这些公司将持续超预期增长

570
00:19:00,970 --> 00:19:02,750
比多数投资者预期更快更久

571
00:19:02,750 --> 00:19:05,829
尽管市场波动不断

572
00:19:05,829 --> 00:19:07,388
这只是一个过场

573
00:19:07,388 --> 00:19:09,868
这是明确的肯定信号

574
00:19:09,868 --> 00:19:12,568
事实上早于多数人预期的阶段

575
00:19:12,568 --> 00:19:12,868
嗯

576
00:19:12,868 --> 00:19:13,489
你在这里

577
00:19:13,489 --> 00:19:15,148
基因数学

578
00:19:15,148 --> 00:19:16,099
注意数学细节

579
00:19:16,099 --> 00:19:19,259
你看到这些微观趋势确实引人注目

580
00:19:19,259 --> 00:19:19,559
你知道的

581
00:19:19,559 --> 00:19:22,339
邻近芯片股表现强劲

582
00:19:22,339 --> 00:19:24,650
我们可能在讨论三家公司

583
00:19:24,650 --> 00:19:25,730
正如之前所说

584
00:19:25,730 --> 00:19:27,750
全球市值前十巨头

585
00:19:28,750 --> 00:19:29,710
简直疯狂

586
00:19:29,710 --> 00:19:30,230
简直疯狂

587
00:19:30,230 --> 00:19:31,299
不可持续

588
00:19:31,299 --> 00:19:32,900
但需谨慎提醒

589
00:19:32,900 --> 00:19:35,619
所有人我必须提及公司名称

590
00:19:35,619 --> 00:19:38,420
帕兰蒂尔

591
00:19:39,190 --> 00:19:42,150
帕兰蒂尔去年是股市最热门股票

592
00:19:42,150 --> 00:19:44,650
所有人都在谈论帕兰蒂尔

593
00:19:44,650 --> 00:19:47,509
增长速度惊人

594
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:48,660
令人兴奋

595
00:19:48,660 --> 00:19:53,150
今天帕兰蒂尔股价113美元

596
00:19:53,150 --> 00:19:54,410
去年达到峰值

597
00:19:54,410 --> 00:19:55,230
超过200美元

598
00:19:56,349 --> 00:19:57,609
现在谁在谈论帕兰蒂尔

599
00:19:57,609 --> 00:19:58,799
现在

600
00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,380
这些数字关于傲腾依然令人惊叹

601
00:20:01,380 --> 00:20:03,960
它们实际上比以往任何时候都好很多

602
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:08,558
但没人关心

603
00:20:08,558 --> 00:20:10,778
当我们看所有存储芯片公司时

604
00:20:10,778 --> 00:20:12,739
它们现在是最热门的东西

605
00:20:12,739 --> 00:20:15,299
大家都在谈论它们对吧

606
00:20:15,299 --> 00:20:17,279
你知道这是大热门话题

607
00:20:17,279 --> 00:20:19,579
就像沙盘有多大

608
00:20:19,579 --> 00:20:20,140
闪迪

609
00:20:20,140 --> 00:20:23,160
我相信现在市值已超三千亿美元

610
00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:24,599
闪迪

611
00:20:25,569 --> 00:20:28,710
闪迪这简直疯狂

612
00:20:28,710 --> 00:20:33,930
所以要理解什么是热门炒作和热议的疯狂程度

613
00:20:33,930 --> 00:20:37,019
现在可能在接下来一年发生剧变

614
00:20:37,019 --> 00:20:38,180
突然间就像

615
00:20:38,180 --> 00:20:39,039
哦

616
00:20:39,039 --> 00:20:40,180
我们都厌倦了

617
00:20:40,180 --> 00:20:40,920
我感到无聊了

618
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:41,180
哦对啊

619
00:20:41,180 --> 00:20:42,039
数字依然很亮眼

620
00:20:42,039 --> 00:20:45,949
但你知道我一直在想一个问题

621
00:20:45,949 --> 00:20:49,410
或许我们被这些数字宠坏了

622
00:20:49,410 --> 00:20:52,170
想想美光最近一个季度

623
00:20:52,170 --> 00:20:56,109
报告最新季度营收四倍增长

624
00:20:56,109 --> 00:20:58,220
但再看营收增长

625
00:20:58,220 --> 00:21:01,480
预计2027财年将达到

626
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:03,099
增长76%

627
00:21:03,099 --> 00:21:05,980
2028年则7%

628
00:21:05,980 --> 00:21:09,028
如果你有点看空的话

629
00:21:09,028 --> 00:21:12,369
或许我们开始看到峰值盈利

630
00:21:12,849 --> 00:21:13,750
我确实会

631
00:21:13,750 --> 00:21:14,529
我可能会

632
00:21:14,529 --> 00:21:14,930
呃

633
00:21:14,930 --> 00:21:17,029
接受这一点并继续分析

634
00:21:17,029 --> 00:21:22,420
我认为投资者何时能真正接受

635
00:21:22,420 --> 00:21:26,170
我们将持续更长时间的高速增长

636
00:21:26,170 --> 00:21:32,720
换句话说，如果市场继续接受这些惊人业绩和指引

637
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:37,460
作为下季度可能出现显著放缓的信号

638
00:21:37,460 --> 00:21:41,409
如果这种持续放缓的担忧

639
00:21:41,409 --> 00:21:43,729
如果发生在27或28年

640
00:21:43,729 --> 00:21:45,750
如果这种趋势持续

641
00:21:45,750 --> 00:21:49,390
这些公司的估值提升将非常困难

642
00:21:49,390 --> 00:21:49,549
我们确实

643
00:21:49,549 --> 00:21:51,420
当然在英伟达身上看到了

644
00:21:51,420 --> 00:21:53,740
英伟达三个月前的数字

645
00:21:53,740 --> 00:21:56,769
预期中位数增长20%

646
00:21:56,769 --> 00:22:01,029
现在预计2027年日历季度增长40%

647
00:22:01,029 --> 00:22:02,670
大幅上调了预期

648
00:22:02,670 --> 00:22:05,599
但过去一个月股价跑输纳斯达克

649
00:22:05,599 --> 00:22:07,180
或者说我下跌了8%

650
00:22:07,180 --> 00:22:09,539
纳斯达克下跌约5%

651
00:22:09,539 --> 00:22:11,740
所以我认为这就是我所关注的

652
00:22:11,740 --> 00:22:14,980
也许这与规模扩张有关

653
00:22:14,980 --> 00:22:19,180
我认为这些大幅上涨的公司

654
00:22:19,180 --> 00:22:25,579
我相信其中一些将面临更大挑战以持续增长

655
00:22:25,579 --> 00:22:27,380
所以英伟达的故事很有趣

656
00:22:27,380 --> 00:22:31,819
当然还有薇拉·鲁宾的相关情况，这是其中一部分

657
00:22:31,819 --> 00:22:33,019
但就英伟达而言

658
00:22:33,019 --> 00:22:35,359
但我想谈谈整个交易

659
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,720
芯片贸易具体正在扩展

660
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:39,119
就在我们说话的此刻

661
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:40,519
吉恩你可能看不到

662
00:22:40,519 --> 00:22:40,960
你知道的

663
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:42,519
高通召开投资者日

664
00:22:42,519 --> 00:22:43,160
首席财务官

665
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:46,980
对AI数据中心潜力发表了相对乐观的评论

666
00:22:46,980 --> 00:22:50,950
高通在AI数据中心领域的具体发展

667
00:22:50,950 --> 00:22:52,609
业务正在显著扩展

668
00:22:52,609 --> 00:22:53,809
远离那些

669
00:22:53,809 --> 00:22:56,730
我们熟悉的智能手机

670
00:22:56,730 --> 00:22:58,789
你是否认同他们的能力

671
00:22:58,789 --> 00:22:59,450
更重要的是

672
00:22:59,450 --> 00:23:03,789
这些公司转向AI的潜力

673
00:23:03,789 --> 00:23:06,210
并成为真正参与者

674
00:23:06,869 --> 00:23:10,130
我们确实看到许多公司焕发新生

675
00:23:10,130 --> 00:23:11,789
无论是高通还是英特尔

676
00:23:11,789 --> 00:23:14,299
还有美光在某种程度上

677
00:23:14,299 --> 00:23:15,099
罗曼

678
00:23:15,099 --> 00:23:19,400
简单来说我认为我们比大多数人更早

679
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:23,579
我认为这一趋势如何持续扩展

680
00:23:23,579 --> 00:23:28,819
我认为尚未被充分理解的下一阶段是个性化AI

681
00:23:28,819 --> 00:23:31,339
这也是高通的角度

682
00:23:31,339 --> 00:23:34,130
同时涉及苹果和谷歌去年的情况

683
00:23:34,130 --> 00:23:36,289
如果我们讨论未来方向

684
00:23:36,289 --> 00:23:39,869
可能会大量谈论基因AI的发展

685
00:23:39,869 --> 00:23:42,619
显然这已成热门话题

686
00:23:42,619 --> 00:23:44,119
但我认为下一阶段

687
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:48,039
这一阶段将在今年晚些至2027-2028年

688
00:23:48,039 --> 00:23:49,720
我们将围绕个性化AI展开

689
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:53,309
预计会看到消费者领域的新一轮热潮

690
00:23:53,309 --> 00:23:58,970
之后我们将看到实体AI变得更强大

691
00:23:58,970 --> 00:23:59,779
请记住

692
00:23:59,779 --> 00:24:02,539
尽管自动驾驶等话题热议

693
00:24:02,539 --> 00:24:05,000
今年的出行和自动驾驶

694
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,819
Waymo和机器人出租车中不足2%为自动驾驶

695
00:24:07,819 --> 00:24:08,480
出租车

696
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:10,440
优步和Lyft的行程

697
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,519
将实现自动驾驶

698
00:24:13,519 --> 00:24:15,809
我认为这就是时间顺序

699
00:24:15,809 --> 00:24:18,309
但整体仍在扩展中，市场仍不安

700
00:24:18,309 --> 00:24:21,609
但事实证明这一观点是错误的，因为它仍有更长的持续期

701
00:24:21,609 --> 00:24:22,849
所以呃

702
00:24:22,849 --> 00:24:26,759
我要反驳这位女士的问题嗯

703
00:24:26,759 --> 00:24:27,859
你知道的

704
00:24:27,859 --> 00:24:28,720
荒谬的

705
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,819
超微公司的峰值收益荒谬

706
00:24:31,819 --> 00:24:33,259
不不

707
00:24:33,259 --> 00:24:36,400
我们至少还要一到两年才能达到峰值收益

708
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,539
至少你可以辩论是否是三年

709
00:24:39,539 --> 00:24:40,769
嗯

710
00:24:41,210 --> 00:24:41,930
但我们不是

711
00:24:41,930 --> 00:24:43,170
这不是峰值收益

712
00:24:43,170 --> 00:24:43,730
对于超微公司

713
00:24:43,730 --> 00:24:46,150
我们至少还要一两年才能达到峰值收益

714
00:24:46,150 --> 00:24:47,109
对于超微公司

715
00:24:47,109 --> 00:24:47,690
没错

716
00:24:47,690 --> 00:24:49,609
股价今年将见顶

717
00:24:49,609 --> 00:24:50,430
正如我所说

718
00:24:50,430 --> 00:24:52,210
我认为今年股价会达到顶峰

719
00:24:52,210 --> 00:24:53,170
关键在于

720
00:24:53,170 --> 00:24:55,230
峰值会在1200、1500还是2000

721
00:24:55,230 --> 00:24:56,950
我认为这才是唯一的问题

722
00:24:56,950 --> 00:24:59,430
但我觉得股价确实会达到顶峰

723
00:24:59,430 --> 00:25:00,789
但收益不会

724
00:25:00,789 --> 00:25:05,739
你预计峰值收益在27到28区间

725
00:25:05,739 --> 00:25:06,239
没错

726
00:25:06,239 --> 00:25:08,699
而在那个阶段

727
00:25:08,699 --> 00:25:10,239
这就是所谓的震荡调整

728
00:25:10,239 --> 00:25:13,318
你知道股票会经历一到两年的震荡期

729
00:25:13,318 --> 00:25:17,960
之后收益会在某个时间点开始下滑

730
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,819
那时你就会经历痛苦阶段

731
00:25:20,819 --> 00:25:21,259
但就是这样

732
00:25:21,259 --> 00:25:21,859
峰值收益

733
00:25:21,859 --> 00:25:23,220
你无需为此担忧

734
00:25:23,220 --> 00:25:24,579
这就是为什么超微

735
00:25:24,579 --> 00:25:27,420
短期内无需担心股票崩盘

736
00:25:27,420 --> 00:25:31,210
除非出现根本性新变化

737
00:25:31,210 --> 00:25:32,029
他们找到

738
00:25:32,029 --> 00:25:33,190
比如不再使用内存

739
00:25:33,190 --> 00:25:34,930
或大幅减少内存使用

740
00:25:34,930 --> 00:25:36,210
这可能会对其造成伤害

741
00:25:36,210 --> 00:25:38,170
但现在你知道

742
00:25:38,369 --> 00:25:39,430
最关键的是

743
00:25:39,430 --> 00:25:39,829
你知道的

744
00:25:39,829 --> 00:25:42,799
如果你在未来六个月内买入超微

745
00:25:42,799 --> 00:25:46,819
你将持有这只股票多年无法获利

746
00:25:46,819 --> 00:25:47,859
未来仍有下行周期

747
00:25:47,859 --> 00:25:49,759
同时也会有下行周期

748
00:25:49,759 --> 00:25:51,339
对了下一个话题

749
00:25:51,339 --> 00:25:52,599
超微销售预测

750
00:25:52,599 --> 00:25:54,349
Shatters estimates

751
00:25:54,349 --> 00:25:56,109
然后我们再讨论AMD

752
00:25:56,109 --> 00:25:57,910
以及该股票未来几年的走势

753
00:25:57,910 --> 00:26:04,269
我认为人们关注的重要基准是每股收益达到30美元

754
00:26:04,269 --> 00:26:05,128
在指引中

755
00:26:05,128 --> 00:26:06,489
而他们

756
00:26:06,489 --> 00:26:09,269
他们会给出比这更好的结果

757
00:26:09,269 --> 00:26:11,259
所以嗯

758
00:26:11,259 --> 00:26:12,000
除此之外

759
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:13,480
你知道所有情况看起来都很不错

760
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:14,380
嗯

761
00:26:14,380 --> 00:26:19,019
AMAT的定价分别上涨了60%到70%

762
00:26:19,019 --> 00:26:23,769
嗯 我觉得这可能略低于我的预期

763
00:26:23,769 --> 00:26:26,450
但在人们担忧的环境中

764
00:26:26,450 --> 00:26:29,579
定价上涨过快过猛

765
00:26:29,579 --> 00:26:30,400
嗯

766
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:32,740
他们能够交付结果而不

767
00:26:32,740 --> 00:26:33,319
嗯

768
00:26:33,319 --> 00:26:34,039
你知道

769
00:26:34,039 --> 00:26:35,420
定价甚至更高

770
00:26:35,420 --> 00:26:37,569
我认为这实际上是个好现象

771
00:26:37,569 --> 00:26:42,049
我很好奇当我们讨论如何维持这种增长时

772
00:26:42,049 --> 00:26:42,950
我指的是传统上

773
00:26:42,950 --> 00:26:43,890
你曾覆盖过这只股票

774
00:26:43,890 --> 00:26:46,819
你知道这些传统上都是周期性股票

775
00:26:46,819 --> 00:26:49,589
以及这个内存堡垒概念

776
00:26:49,589 --> 00:26:50,349
你曾提到过

777
00:26:50,349 --> 00:26:53,269
我们已经打破了这种周期性

778
00:26:53,269 --> 00:26:55,039
尤其是在AI建设阶段

779
00:26:55,039 --> 00:27:00,039
你是否感受到从时间角度看还能持续多久

780
00:27:00,039 --> 00:27:04,029
投资者能否对此有足够信心

781
00:27:04,029 --> 00:27:04,369
音乐

782
00:27:04,369 --> 00:27:05,250
增长故事

783
00:27:05,250 --> 00:27:05,769
你知道

784
00:27:05,769 --> 00:27:06,650
无论怎样

785
00:27:06,650 --> 00:27:07,970
都会持续存在

786
00:27:07,970 --> 00:27:08,450
嗯

787
00:27:08,450 --> 00:27:11,009
不仅仅是一个周期

788
00:27:12,299 --> 00:27:14,660
归根结底

789
00:27:14,660 --> 00:27:18,640
这些股票仍将具有周期性

790
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:22,288
你无法回避当产能扩张时

791
00:27:22,288 --> 00:27:23,989
产能会大规模增加

792
00:27:23,989 --> 00:27:26,169
最终可能导致产能过剩

793
00:27:26,169 --> 00:27:31,039
话说回来，Micron在准备声明中提到

794
00:27:31,039 --> 00:27:33,210
他们的新工厂何时上线

795
00:27:33,210 --> 00:27:36,049
将在2027年底

796
00:27:36,049 --> 00:27:41,450
因此产能将在2028年全面投产

797
00:27:41,450 --> 00:27:42,089
在此之前

798
00:27:42,089 --> 00:27:43,029
也就是说

799
00:27:43,029 --> 00:27:43,569
他们在谈论

800
00:27:43,569 --> 00:27:44,609
他们正在讨论

801
00:27:44,609 --> 00:27:45,250
呃

802
00:27:45,250 --> 00:27:48,670
所以先别急，等我翻个身再坐下

803
00:27:48,670 --> 00:27:49,849
让我来讲个笑话

804
00:27:49,849 --> 00:27:51,190
然后我们再谈正经事

805
00:27:51,190 --> 00:27:51,769
好的

806
00:27:51,769 --> 00:27:52,210
听着

807
00:27:53,369 --> 00:27:54,759
这里到底发生了什么

808
00:27:54,759 --> 00:27:56,200
然后我就看到了我看到的东西

809
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:57,859
哇

810
00:27:57,859 --> 00:27:59,000
我们在这里录音吗

811
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,279
当处理这个小东西时

812
00:28:06,420 --> 00:28:09,299
我觉得我赚的钱比华尔街大多数人都多

813
00:28:09,299 --> 00:28:11,539
除了对冲基金经理和大银行家们

814
00:28:11,539 --> 00:28:12,740
我感觉挺自信的

815
00:28:12,740 --> 00:28:14,160
我赚的钱比他们多

816
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:15,640
这些人怎么回事

817
00:28:15,799 --> 00:28:17,720
他们的处境很糟糕

818
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,559
我看了看然后我说

819
00:28:19,559 --> 00:28:21,019
这是什么

820
00:28:21,019 --> 00:28:22,829
这就是你的背景

821
00:28:22,829 --> 00:28:24,329
这里到底怎么了

822
00:28:24,329 --> 00:28:24,589
这里

823
00:28:24,589 --> 00:28:26,690
我们直接把煎饼翻到地上

824
00:28:26,690 --> 00:28:28,009
兄弟别闹

825
00:28:28,009 --> 00:28:29,470
我们能

826
00:28:30,690 --> 00:28:32,109
这感觉不像钱

827
00:28:32,109 --> 00:28:33,170
我就说这么多

828
00:28:33,170 --> 00:28:34,450
这感觉不像钱

829
00:28:34,450 --> 00:28:35,630
这里到底怎么了

830
00:28:35,630 --> 00:28:36,130
兄弟

831
00:28:36,130 --> 00:28:36,630
好吧

832
00:28:36,630 --> 00:28:38,859
说正经的

833
00:28:38,859 --> 00:28:40,579
这最吓人

834
00:28:40,579 --> 00:28:41,059
呃

835
00:28:41,059 --> 00:28:42,059
在整个内存交易中

836
00:28:42,059 --> 00:28:46,089
正是当我们开始芯片放缓时

837
00:28:46,089 --> 00:28:50,880
那就是产能启动的时候对吧

838
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:51,960
没错

839
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:52,420
你知道的

840
00:28:52,420 --> 00:28:54,859
除非你相信不会出现芯片放缓

841
00:28:54,859 --> 00:28:59,119
而元宇宙竟要每年投入400亿美元资本

842
00:28:59,119 --> 00:29:02,109
微软也要开始花600亿美元

843
00:29:02,109 --> 00:29:03,289
你知道的

844
00:29:03,569 --> 00:29:05,029
我们将面临芯片放缓

845
00:29:05,029 --> 00:29:08,750
芯片放缓大概在2028年到来

846
00:29:08,750 --> 00:29:12,069
正是所有内存产能开始释放时

847
00:29:13,868 --> 00:29:15,068
最可怕的部分

848
00:29:15,068 --> 00:29:17,308
那时利润将开始暴跌

849
00:29:17,308 --> 00:29:20,249
这些内存芯片公司的利润率将下滑

850
00:29:20,249 --> 00:29:24,898
我们现在看到的历史数据

851
00:29:24,898 --> 00:29:26,839
接下来一年我们会看到

852
00:29:26,839 --> 00:29:27,700
呃

853
00:29:27,700 --> 00:29:28,980
它们开始要离开了

854
00:29:31,150 --> 00:29:31,910
但呃

855
00:29:31,910 --> 00:29:33,750
时机确实不好

856
00:29:33,750 --> 00:29:36,089
这就是会员市场运作的方式，兄弟

857
00:29:36,089 --> 00:29:37,789
这就是它的运作方式

858
00:29:37,789 --> 00:29:39,888
对零比特的需求存在预期

859
00:29:39,888 --> 00:29:41,549
大幅增长在上方

860
00:29:41,549 --> 00:29:43,329
超出他们之前的预期

861
00:29:43,329 --> 00:29:45,329
但只差几个百分点

862
00:29:45,329 --> 00:29:47,549
我认为这里的挑战在于

863
00:29:47,549 --> 00:29:50,000
需求如此旺盛

864
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:51,099
没有这些新洁净室

865
00:29:51,099 --> 00:29:54,220
产能只能小幅提升

866
00:29:54,220 --> 00:29:56,059
只要情况如此

867
00:29:56,059 --> 00:29:58,299
而需求量这么大

868
00:29:58,299 --> 00:30:03,109
你就会看到价格和利润率依然非常健康

869
00:30:03,109 --> 00:30:03,670
是的

870
00:30:03,670 --> 00:30:04,609
我也在思考

871
00:30:04,609 --> 00:30:07,869
从中期到长期来看

872
00:30:07,869 --> 00:30:08,710
显然现在

873
00:30:08,710 --> 00:30:10,150
看起来美光

874
00:30:10,150 --> 00:30:13,759
及其同行是这一瓶颈的最大受益者

875
00:30:13,759 --> 00:30:15,680
在内存领域我们看到的

876
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,098
但你也得想想

877
00:30:18,098 --> 00:30:20,598
那些投入大量资金的公司

878
00:30:20,598 --> 00:30:25,359
现在在内存领域投入巨资的企业都在寻求答案

879
00:30:25,359 --> 00:30:27,420
以及如何缓解这些成本

880
00:30:27,420 --> 00:30:32,519
我也在想这些长期风险该如何看待

881
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:33,680
是的

882
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:34,880
我我我意思是

883
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,279
我觉得嗯

884
00:30:37,279 --> 00:30:40,880
内存供应商正在尝试

885
00:30:41,119 --> 00:30:41,759
嗯

886
00:30:41,759 --> 00:30:44,009
至少在短期内部分缓解

887
00:30:44,009 --> 00:30:45,650
这种风险

888
00:30:45,650 --> 00:30:47,430
是通过长期合同

889
00:30:47,430 --> 00:30:52,430
我的观点是许多大客户已签订三年

890
00:30:52,430 --> 00:30:54,609
四年五年期合同

891
00:30:54,609 --> 00:31:00,569
他们愿意牺牲未来的定价空间

892
00:31:00,569 --> 00:31:02,130
为了

893
00:31:02,130 --> 00:31:02,869
嗯

894
00:31:02,869 --> 00:31:05,450
确保他们确实拥有

895
00:31:05,450 --> 00:31:09,339
Wedbush据说在听

896
00:31:09,339 --> 00:31:14,460
据说他们管理着56亿美元资产

897
00:31:14,460 --> 00:31:19,849
56亿美元这是他们品牌想要展现的形象

898
00:31:21,769 --> 00:31:22,890
伙计们

899
00:31:27,259 --> 00:31:27,940
当我这样做时

900
00:31:27,940 --> 00:31:29,819
我的对冲基金将赚取巨额利润

901
00:31:29,819 --> 00:31:30,859
这简直令人作呕

902
00:31:30,859 --> 00:31:31,119
啊

903
00:31:31,119 --> 00:31:31,700
我的天啊

904
00:31:31,700 --> 00:31:32,720
美丽而拉长的

905
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:36,210
如果这些机构管理着五亿美元资产

906
00:31:37,609 --> 00:31:39,230
嗯，我觉得那是

907
00:31:39,230 --> 00:31:39,769
你知道的

908
00:31:39,769 --> 00:31:42,470
某种程度上最终对双方都有利

909
00:31:42,470 --> 00:31:46,789
即使客户不开心他们支付了四倍五倍的费用

910
00:31:46,789 --> 00:31:47,789
他们原本为内存支付的费用

911
00:31:47,789 --> 00:31:48,750
嗯，那个

912
00:31:48,750 --> 00:31:49,989
再次六到九个月

913
00:31:49,989 --> 00:31:52,449
所以我们拿到了整点数据

914
00:31:52,449 --> 00:31:55,068
在多项指标上超预期并上调

915
00:31:55,068 --> 00:31:56,969
我们正在倒数等待

916
00:31:56,969 --> 00:31:57,388
财报

917
00:31:57,388 --> 00:31:58,980
微芯和马特的电话会议

918
00:31:58,980 --> 00:32:03,140
在这些数据背景下你会特别关注什么

919
00:32:04,309 --> 00:32:07,230
嗯，我觉得他们

920
00:32:07,230 --> 00:32:08,470
他们给了你很多信息

921
00:32:08,470 --> 00:32:10,289
在他们的准备稿中

922
00:32:10,289 --> 00:32:12,358
嗯，所以

923
00:32:12,358 --> 00:32:13,858
桑将谈到

924
00:32:13,858 --> 00:32:19,339
超过50%的总需求来自数据中心

925
00:32:19,339 --> 00:32:24,019
我的意思是这说明需求主要由

926
00:32:24,019 --> 00:32:26,440
AI带来的资本支出

927
00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:30,039
明年的资本支出将大幅增加

928
00:32:30,039 --> 00:32:32,150
特别是建设成本

929
00:32:32,150 --> 00:32:34,470
预计将增加十亿美元

930
00:32:34,470 --> 00:32:36,630
我希望能了解更多

931
00:32:36,630 --> 00:32:37,069
嗯

932
00:32:37,069 --> 00:32:39,470
这种容量能带来多少产能

933
00:32:39,470 --> 00:32:40,789
如果他们提供更详细数据

934
00:32:40,789 --> 00:32:44,490
以及具体需要增加多少设备支出

935
00:32:44,490 --> 00:32:45,029
因为这

936
00:32:45,029 --> 00:32:46,549
这既影响设备制造商

937
00:32:46,549 --> 00:32:51,569
也让我们了解产能上线速度

938
00:32:51,890 --> 00:32:52,630
好的

939
00:32:52,630 --> 00:32:53,769
接下来

940
00:32:53,769 --> 00:32:54,230
让我们讨论

941
00:32:54,230 --> 00:32:55,710
AMD股票

942
00:32:55,710 --> 00:32:56,150
你知道的

943
00:32:56,150 --> 00:32:57,680
五万亿美元市值

944
00:32:57,680 --> 00:32:59,180
一切皆有可能啊

945
00:32:59,180 --> 00:33:00,259
一切皆有可能

946
00:33:00,259 --> 00:33:03,269
我看好AMD

947
00:33:03,269 --> 00:33:04,009
对

948
00:33:04,009 --> 00:33:04,730
嗯

949
00:33:04,730 --> 00:33:09,930
我的观点是这只股票将涨至两万亿美元

950
00:33:09,930 --> 00:33:12,410
大约两到二点五万亿美元区间

951
00:33:12,410 --> 00:33:14,880
如果实际情况比我预期的要好很多

952
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:18,240
我们再翻一番达到五万亿美元 我很高兴他们接受这个数字

953
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:21,450
但这是我的假设

954
00:33:21,450 --> 00:33:22,930
更多是在两到二点几的范围

955
00:33:22,930 --> 00:33:25,170
我们现在正朝着五万亿美元目标前进

956
00:33:25,170 --> 00:33:26,009
话说回来

957
00:33:26,009 --> 00:33:27,809
AMD股票

958
00:33:27,930 --> 00:33:30,289
我可能会大量卖出

959
00:33:30,289 --> 00:33:34,509
我可能在未来卖出大部分持股

960
00:33:34,509 --> 00:33:36,869
我的看法大概是十二到十八个月

961
00:33:36,869 --> 00:33:37,430
没错

962
00:33:37,430 --> 00:33:39,250
我认为有很大概率

963
00:33:39,250 --> 00:33:43,059
我们将涨至一千点以上并持续上涨

964
00:33:43,059 --> 00:33:44,660
我们将迎来惊人的财报

965
00:33:44,660 --> 00:33:46,519
我认为这会在接下来几个季度发生

966
00:33:46,519 --> 00:33:46,940
对于A和B公司

967
00:33:46,940 --> 00:33:51,318
这将在我的个人看法中为股票带来新动量

968
00:33:51,318 --> 00:33:53,199
我对AMD没有短期做空计划

969
00:33:53,199 --> 00:33:57,190
我只是在多个投资组合中持有大量股份

970
00:33:58,630 --> 00:34:00,190
AMD将会发生什么

971
00:34:00,190 --> 00:34:03,170
我不认为AMD的财报高峰可能出现在

972
00:34:03,170 --> 00:34:05,410
要么2029年或2030年

973
00:34:05,410 --> 00:34:07,690
就周期而言

974
00:34:07,690 --> 00:34:12,369
之后将面临一段痛苦的调整期

975
00:34:12,369 --> 00:34:15,059
现在看AMD的股价

976
00:34:15,059 --> 00:34:16,699
我认为我们很可能在明年见顶

977
00:34:16,699 --> 00:34:17,659
2027年

978
00:34:17,659 --> 00:34:19,920
然后开始一年到两年的震荡期

979
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:21,300
在那个时间点之后

980
00:34:21,300 --> 00:34:21,860
没错

981
00:34:21,860 --> 00:34:24,579
震荡期大概会

982
00:34:24,579 --> 00:34:26,179
我们在2027年达到峰值

983
00:34:26,179 --> 00:34:27,699
大概就是股价顶点

984
00:34:27,699 --> 00:34:30,059
然后经历一年到两年的震荡

985
00:34:30,059 --> 00:34:34,780
覆盖2027年部分时间到2028年甚至2029年

986
00:34:34,780 --> 00:34:38,940
之后AMD股票将面临大幅下跌

987
00:34:38,940 --> 00:34:42,409
没错 我大概会卖出大部分持股

988
00:34:42,409 --> 00:34:46,670
我可能永远保留一千到几千股AMD

989
00:34:46,670 --> 00:34:48,349
长期持有以应对

990
00:34:48,349 --> 00:34:50,429
未来十年二十年左右

991
00:34:50,429 --> 00:34:53,818
就这个疯狂周期而言

992
00:34:53,818 --> 00:34:57,498
我认为股票明年会达到峰值

993
00:34:57,498 --> 00:35:01,260
之后股价将保持稳定

994
00:35:01,260 --> 00:35:02,860
价格相同或更低

995
00:35:02,860 --> 00:35:05,630
之后多年大概如此

996
00:35:05,630 --> 00:35:08,670
直到下一个大周期重启

997
00:35:08,670 --> 00:35:10,099
没错 所以

998
00:35:10,099 --> 00:35:11,579
这就是发展过程

999
00:35:11,579 --> 00:35:14,840
所有公司最终都会回归周期性

1000
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:16,449
对啊，呃

1001
00:35:16,449 --> 00:35:17,528
同样的论点

1002
00:35:17,528 --> 00:35:20,128
围绕这类股票提出的各种论点

1003
00:35:20,128 --> 00:35:20,208
没错

1004
00:35:20,208 --> 00:35:21,829
他们一直以来都在重复的论点

1005
00:35:21,829 --> 00:35:22,429
没错

1006
00:35:22,429 --> 00:35:23,708
甚至你知道的

1007
00:35:23,708 --> 00:35:25,690
美光正在和一位老朋友交谈

1008
00:35:25,690 --> 00:35:27,449
他持有大量美光股票

1009
00:35:27,449 --> 00:35:27,949
他在谈论

1010
00:35:27,949 --> 00:35:30,349
对内存需求只会越来越高

1011
00:35:30,349 --> 00:35:33,349
所有老奶奶都知道这一点

1012
00:35:33,349 --> 00:35:37,710
但这是过去五六十甚至七十年来的相同论点

1013
00:35:37,710 --> 00:35:39,800
自从电子产品出现以来

1014
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,639
内存需求呈指数级增长

1015
00:35:42,639 --> 00:35:44,699
这就是必然的结果啊

1016
00:35:44,699 --> 00:35:50,050
尽管美光股价也曾多次暴跌

1017
00:35:50,050 --> 00:35:50,289
没错

1018
00:35:50,289 --> 00:35:52,099
这就是市场规律

1019
00:35:52,099 --> 00:35:53,139
所以没错

1020
00:35:53,139 --> 00:35:54,440
大家一如既往地加入我真好

1021
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:55,780
再次感谢大家的到来

1022
00:35:55,780 --> 00:35:56,500
如果你想申请

1023
00:35:56,500 --> 00:35:57,199
加入私密社群

1024
00:35:57,199 --> 00:35:59,079
我们将在几天后关闭新成员申请

1025
00:35:59,079 --> 00:36:00,829
相关提示将置顶显示

1026
00:36:00,829 --> 00:36:01,829
如果你需要获取权限

1027
00:36:01,829 --> 00:36:04,590
我们将寄送欢迎礼包到你家

1028
00:36:04,590 --> 00:36:05,449
加入我们后

1029
00:36:05,449 --> 00:36:07,670
还将寄送钢制会员卡

1030
00:36:07,670 --> 00:36:10,349
加入私密社群后

1031
00:36:10,349 --> 00:36:12,769
四千倍额度将寄送至家中

1032
00:36:12,769 --> 00:36:14,860
如果你选择终身会员

1033
00:36:14,860 --> 00:36:19,400
我们将寄送终身会员卡

1034
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:21,139
相关提示将置顶显示

1035
00:36:21,139 --> 00:36:22,860
加入六七位数俱乐部

1036
00:36:22,860 --> 00:36:23,800
所有优质内容

1037
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:24,119
好的

1038
00:36:24,119 --> 00:36:24,320
好的

1039
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:26,380
大家多多保重，祝您一天愉快

共 3 条，按点赞数排序。

采集完成，该视频无弹幕