房地产“王炸”？我对此并不乐观

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2024年5月

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全国70城的房价环比增速负0.7%

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这一数据创出10年来新低

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而参考更加市场化的二手房数据

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这个月全国70城的二手房环比增速时

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负1.09%

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为2005年以来有记录的最低数字

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二手房的同比增速也是有记录

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最低为负7.5%

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从各类别的城市表现看

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一线城市领跌跌幅开始显著大于二三线了

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这说明一线城市并不是资产的堡垒

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甚至会因为一线总价高

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杠杆率高

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导致下跌的时候幅度更大

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从日本的经验看

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日本一线城市

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六大都市上涨期涨幅远超全日平均水平

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下跌期跌幅也远超全日平均水平

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最终大家的累计涨幅差不多

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由于5月中旬

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不过在各个城市

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尤其是在一线城市

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是在下旬才开始落地实施的

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所以6月是新政后第一个真正的完整月

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6月的数据具有非常高的指引意义

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在这样的逆风背景下

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放松限购

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降低首付和利率

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似乎已经进入了边际效用递减的状态

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于是各路自媒体开始吹风另一个房地产王炸

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也就是推动各地官方下场收购商品房

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并作为保障性房出租

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这一举措被视为可以大幅化解市场上的库存

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并有效扭转市场的悲观预期

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我对于这个操作并不看好

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今天就说说原因

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一预算不足

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拟设立保障性住房再贷款

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再贷款规模3000亿元

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利率1.75%

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期限一年

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可展期四次

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这算是打开了这一扇回购存量房的大门

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这些贷款发放对象包括国家开发银行

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政策性银行

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国有商业银行

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邮政储蓄银行

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股份制商业银行等21家全国性银行

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银行按照自主决策

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风险自担原则

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向城市政府选定的地方国有企业发放贷款

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收购已建成未出售商品房

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用作保障性住房

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发放再贷款

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可带动银行贷款5000亿元

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也就是说

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根据现在已有的额度

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会实际撬动5000亿出来收购新房库存

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那么现在市场上的库存有多少呢

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根据官方数据

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截至2024年5月

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全国有7万4000

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256万平米的待售房面积

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这个数字超出前一次去库存的高峰

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我们按照全国房价

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平均每平米1.64万的价格计算

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数据来自中止研究院

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要消化这些库存

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总计需要超过12万亿人民币

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即使官方可以按照市场价的五折收购

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也还是要6万亿

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现在这5000亿全部砸下去

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能够消化的库存太少

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对市场的影响也非常有限

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二赔本买卖需要注意

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对于财务状况已经非常困难

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已经债务缠身的各个地方来说

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承受不起

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在回购库存房这件事上再继续失血了

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是用来做保障房的

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保障房运营过程中唯一的收入就是一个

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那就是租金回报

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但是目前全国几乎所有城市的租金回报率

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也就是1.7%左右的水平

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这远远高于各期限的市场利率水平

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即使按照10年期国债收益率作为

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各城市各地方长期的资金使用成本贷款买房

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然后再以保障房出租

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这也完全是一项亏本的买卖

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尽管各地官方可以以七折甚至五折的价格

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收购新房库存

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但作为保障房出租的租金

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相比市场租金要打去更多的折扣

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所以他们买库存

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然后做保障房出租的

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实际租金回报率

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还要远远低于1.7%左右的水平

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相当于买的越多

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亏的越多

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这本质是房价太高导致租金回报率太低

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如果中国的租金回报率能够像美国

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日本

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欧洲等绝大多数国家一样

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达到4%的水平

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那么都不需要政府去收购

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市场上就会有人去收购房子用来出租

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因为在租金回报率足够高的情况下

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这是可盈利的

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这项生意是可持续的

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市场经济的效率就体现在

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如果一件事是有可行性的

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那么自然会有人去做

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三真正的库存

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我们绝大多数人对库存这个概念的理解是错的

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以为库存会去掉

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去掉后就万事大吉

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就等待上涨了

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但真正的库存应该包括市场上所有的存量

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空置房源

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因为他们也对楼市形成供给

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在不少热点大城市

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二手房成交才是房地产成交量的主力部分

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只要不是房子倒了或者被炸掉了

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楼市的库存是去不掉的

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而且只会越来越多

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官方所在意的库存问题

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只不过是开发商手中的待售库存

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一旦房子转移到了老百姓手里

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就不再被视为问题了

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对于一二线城市来说

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由于城市在过去20多年的开发强度大

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历史长

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积累了大量的空置二手房

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这些业主在房价上涨的时候囤积

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居奇把房产当成是存折或股票一样囤着

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坐享资产升值的快感

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但现在预期已经发生改变

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房价出现持续下跌

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于是逼出大量的抛盘

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我们看到

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即使是在需求最旺盛的一线城市

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即使最近这些城市的二手房

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成交量有一定程度的回暖

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但每成交一套房

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市场就会增加

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比成交数字多得多的新挂牌房源

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最终导致房子越卖越多的情况

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总之决定市场走势的是数量更大

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市场化程度更高的二手房市场

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国家不可能回购业主手中的二手房

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不可能拿真金白银帮这些业主套现

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所以回购注定难以影响市场的方向

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四定价争议

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我们上文提到

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收购这些卖不出去的新房

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地方政府可以按照一定的折扣买入

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但这个折扣究竟是多少

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比如九折

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七折还是五折

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任何一个数字都会引来诸多争议

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假设如果没有折扣或折扣太低

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会被质疑与开发商之间搞利益输送

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如果折扣太大

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又会被质疑欺压开发商

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折扣收购还会对周边的房价带来冲击

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因为这也是一种有效的成交价

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假设市场看到你这一批房子的成交价

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居然只有原来的一半

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这相当于是房价大跌了

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你觉得这样的事情

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对于同一小区之前已经成交的业主

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以及这个小区下一期的项目定价来说

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会是什么影响

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结果显然是价格下调

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业主信心崩塌

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五抑制市场

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既然有上述几个问题

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我们假设未来利率继续下降

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是不是就可以解决回购预算不足

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以及地方运营不划算的问题呢

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答案是依然很难

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因为如果回购的力度增加

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市场上保障房的供应会空前增加

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最终又反过来减少

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市场对于商品房的租赁和购买需求

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实际上这些年来

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中国各个城市的租金都是没有显著上涨的

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甚至近几年出现的下跌

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除上海外

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全国各个热点城市的住宅租金甚至都没有达到

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2004年5月的两倍

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天津和广州的租金

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大概和各自

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2011~2012年的租金水平相当

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如果中国像美国一样

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把房租算作CPI超过13的权重

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那么这一波通缩会在数据上表达的更明显

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租金停滞的背景是租房需求不足

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租客的购买力没有上升

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一个非常现实的场景是

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就算你现在是在一线城市

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你想把自己空置的房子

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按照前几年以印象中的价格租出去

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想找到一个长期稳定可靠的租客

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都非常非常难

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而且更扎心的是

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你的房子越大越豪华

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就越难找到合适的租客

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在这个情况下

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一旦官方下场

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把待售商品房买入后

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以更加低廉的价格作为保障房出租

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对于市场上的业主来说会成为一个灾难

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他们的房子可能会将更难出租

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市场租金可能被进一步压低

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反过来导致二手房的租售比更加扭曲

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最终迫使业主卖出房子

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然后房价进一步下跌

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到这一步

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我们应该可以看明白了

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为什么现在要拉升房价这么困难

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核心原因在于基本面已经出现了根本性的逆转

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00:08:12,798 --> 00:08:15,738
中国房地产市场的格局已彻底进入

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00:08:15,738 --> 00:08:17,259
供大于求的状态

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甚至于我们可以很有把握地说

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就算全国各个城市

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现在开始立即停止商品房开发

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00:08:23,019 --> 00:08:25,209
未来只做一些简单的修修补补

230
00:08:25,209 --> 00:08:28,509
现有的存量房都足够未来几十年居住了

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而且空余的房子还会越来越多

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00:08:30,769 --> 00:08:33,568
因为中国的人口正在不可逆的减少中

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城市化的比重也基本稳定了下来

234
00:08:36,208 --> 00:08:39,340
总之对于这个收购库存的房地产王炸

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00:08:39,340 --> 00:08:43,019
它也许可以相对延缓一下市场现在的下行速度

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但要通过它让市场完全转向

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是一件非常困难的事

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00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:48,960
除非这5000亿进场的资金

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能够成功诱导老百姓的5万亿真金白银投入

240
00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:55,009
那么就算是满分达成了他的目标

241
00:08:55,009 --> 00:08:56,529
而如果还是你不买

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00:08:56,529 --> 00:08:57,110
我不买

243
00:08:57,110 --> 00:09:00,769
那明年房价也许还能再便宜一点

244
00:09:00,769 --> 00:09:02,549
如果你喜欢本期视频

245
00:09:02,549 --> 00:09:03,970
希望可以点赞关注

246
00:09:03,970 --> 00:09:04,710
支持一波

247
00:09:04,710 --> 00:09:07,000
这将对我有很大的帮助

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