【视野环球财经】20260702美股 大空头：半导体跌30%？MRVL、MU、SNDK！市场调仓，流动性风险！TSLA波段蹦极太快了！下周起节目时间变更通知！

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大家好

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欢迎回到视野

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环球财经

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我是RENO

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现在是美东时间26年7月2号

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周四晚上的09:35分呃

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那么在今天的节目正式开始之前呀

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我先说一下

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从下个星期开始

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未来三个星期的节目时间的调整安排

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请大家仔细看啊

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呃因为我个人呢是这个星期啊已经开始休假呃

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从下周开始呢

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由于休假呢是比较的忙啊

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呃所以有的时候呢时间是没有办法保证的

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呃所以呢为了尽量的去调和一下时间

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呃

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尽量呢断更的次数不太多啊

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所以呢我把这个整个的时间更新

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和大家做一个调整啊

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未来的三个星期

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从7月6号到24号整个的节目安排

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那么呃在这一段时间之内呢

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我正常的录制时间会在当天的收盘后

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就是在美东时间晚上的11点之后啊

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也就是呢比如说周一收盘了

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我们现在不都是差不多

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在美冬的晚上八九点钟就已经更新了嘛

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啊但之后这三周不会啊

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我会在比较晚的时间才开始录制

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发布的时间

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大家关注一下

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是在第二天的盘前啊

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周一的收盘之后

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我马上是没有节目的

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需要到周二的盘前

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也就是美东时间的早上六点

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美西时间早上三点

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北京时间下午的18点啊

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这个时间才会去发布

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相当于我提前的录啊

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因为大家都在睡觉嘛

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所以呢我就把这个发布时间再推迟一点点

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这样我的时间也更多

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也帮大家呢

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可以把节目制作的更加的细致一些啊

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大家都不急

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所以第二天醒了再看好吧

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另外呢会员节目在这段时间里里边呢

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是正常周末更新啊

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每天每个星期都会有

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除了这周啊

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因为这周是一个长周末啊

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明天是不开盘的

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所以呢按照惯例

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常周末咱们的会员节目都会停更一次

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从下个星期开始啊

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后面尽管我在休假

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但会员节目正常更新

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另外的会员答疑呢是正常每天都会解答啊

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是跟之前是一样的啊

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大家就不用担心

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还有就是关于公共视频的节目呢

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是不会每个交易日都更新啊

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这个是肯定的啊

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一定是会有休息的中间

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那么在前一天的节目中

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我会给大家一个通知

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比如第二天我不更了

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给大家讲一声

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或者呢遇到一些时间冲突

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比如行程安排的调整啊

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那么我会在YOUTUBE的社区帖子提前发布通知啊

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大家呃如果当天早上

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第二天早上发现诶

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怎么没有节目呀

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你看一下那个社区啊

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就是那个community那个地方

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找一下我有没有发通知

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如果有的话

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大家就不用等了是吧

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这样的话会比较好

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所以呢我们下一次节目公共视频的更新

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是在美国的7月7号

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也就是周二的盘前

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周一收盘之后马上没有要到第二天

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周二的盘前

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美东早上六点

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美西凌晨三点

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北京时间的18点啊

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希望大家啊

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这个这个不知道的朋友互相转告一下啊

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免得这个咱们等的太久了

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耽误大家的时间

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好那咱们就开始讲今天的主题

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今天的四大指数啊是标普收平

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纳指一板领跌

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道指赌涨

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今天的半导体呢是继续大幅下挫啊

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跌了五个多点

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标普500成份股啊

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今天上涨的广度是大幅改善

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356只个股上涨

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只有145只下跌

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那么在今天的板块方面啊

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大家也发现了像什么医疗保健呐

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像什么必需品

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对不对

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这个都涨得非常的不错啊

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今天领涨市场

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包括像公共事业也涨了两个点

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这都是传统的防御型的板块在领涨

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而大科技权重比较大的

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像科技板块

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还有非必需品板块

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还有一个大家需要注意的是啊

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今天的标普平权指数啊

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整个咱们不是说资金

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整个在7月份重新系统调配之后

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看看他们怎么走吗

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标普平权指数在今天再创收盘价的新高啊

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它和标普500不一样

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因为标普500那边

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由于有一些大股票的权重开始异常的大

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有一些失真

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标普等权重指数已经是创了历史新高啊

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资金呢在往一些板块进场

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那么一直比较强势的费城半导体

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今天是连续第二天被抛售啊

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昨天呢我们说还有两只个股勉强收涨28只

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下跌今天啊倒是直接非常的干脆啊

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下跌的个股数量30只啊

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全军覆没

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在这个里边

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大家看到跌幅最小的是英伟达和德州

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还有NXPI啊

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这几个包括台积电

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其实通过今天的这几个你就能发现

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其实有一些抗跌啊

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相对跌幅较少的个股

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其实是在过去一段时间涨幅较少的个股

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涨幅较大的

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那么利润累积比较多的

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回吐的也比较的厉害

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那么在7月的最开始的这两个交易日啊

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市场呢是出现了比较明显的

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机构资金重新配置的情况啊

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是一个方向的转变啊

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就是呢有明显看到转向传统的价值股

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周期股

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防御股

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特别是今天的道指

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今天的道指呢一支收平是24只

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上涨五只下跌啊

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涨得最高的是苹果

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然后是麦当劳

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迪士尼

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还有波音

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强生

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这些呢你看涨了三个多点的

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非常的多啊

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所以通过道指能看出来

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确确实实表明了资金

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至少在过去的两天有一个调仓的态度

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那么这些股票呢

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特别是对于上半年表现不佳的股票来讲

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那么这种系统性的调仓是个良好的开局

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但是能不能确定

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下半年是不是主要要炒这些个股了啊

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等会呢我会讲到其中有些需要关注的问题啊

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目前来看呢还需要一些信号的确认啊

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咱们稍后来讲

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那么现呃咱们先讲一个什么呢

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今天有一个6月份的非农

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我们还是要把它过一下

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呃美国的6月份的非农就业呢是弱于预期的啊

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整个是增加了5.7万人

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大幅低于市场预期的11万人

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也低于前值的17.2万啊

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这个是修正后是17.2万

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尽管5月份的数据呢是被下调了12.9万

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但4月份的数据也被下调了3.1万

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到了14.8万

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两个月的净修正值是-7.4万

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这个和上期报告的近上调值的正9.3万

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相比呢是显著恶化

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那么在6月份整个的行业里边

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休闲和酒店行业的人数减少了6.1万

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呃这个呢是反映出一些季节性的招聘的疲软啊

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那么基本是抵消了5月份异常强劲的

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7万人的增幅

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除了休闲和酒店之外

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像什么专业和商业服务

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社会援助以及医疗保健行业的就业人数

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保持增长势头

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还有一个呢是大家看到

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可能失业率是有所下降啊

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从4.3下降到了4.2%

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呃

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这个改善呢

201
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主要是由于劳动参与率这边也下降了啊

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他从61.8下降到了61.5

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工资增长方面呢是符合预期的

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平均时薪环比增长0.3%

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同比增长3.5%

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那么对于这么一份比较疲软的非农就业报告啊

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对于市场的加息降息的影响

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主要是市场在这份报告之后呢

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是重新调整了对于美联储加息的预期

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货币市场呢之前普遍认为的加息25个基点

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会出现在今年的10月份

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那么今天的非农报告就之后呢

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是推迟到了12月份

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这个计价是完全计价

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就是他们非常确认12月要加息一次啊

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当然这个是指的是今天的数据之后

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我们知道这种市场的资金压注是会发生变化的

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好吧

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所以这是当前的利率市场的一些大致的情况

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那么这种重新的定价从10月推迟到12月呢

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对于市场的其他方面的影响主要是向美元啊

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就是美元这边呢今天是大幅的下挫啊

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跌了0.53

224
00:09:20,750 --> 00:09:22,590
那么对于像美元呢

225
00:09:22,590 --> 00:09:25,330
还有短期国债收益率是构成了一些压力

226
00:09:25,330 --> 00:09:26,929
那么支撑了什么东西呢

227
00:09:26,929 --> 00:09:29,729
支撑了贵金属的买盘啊

228
00:09:29,729 --> 00:09:32,688
所以这是一些连带的在利率层面

229
00:09:32,688 --> 00:09:35,099
加息层面的影响

230
00:09:35,099 --> 00:09:37,058
好讲完了这个之后

231
00:09:37,058 --> 00:09:41,019
咱们接下来呢就直接来讲一讲个股啊

232
00:09:41,019 --> 00:09:43,870
包括说一说流动性

233
00:09:44,429 --> 00:09:48,389
咱们先说一下存储和费办啊

234
00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:53,279
存储类的股票啊

235
00:09:53,279 --> 00:09:57,240
额其实遭遇到了两连跌啊

236
00:09:57,240 --> 00:09:59,889
就是这个两连跌跌的还比较多

237
00:09:59,889 --> 00:10:05,639
所以呢呃创下了12年来最大的两日跌幅啊

238
00:10:05,639 --> 00:10:08,000
这个是高盛的一个存储类的

239
00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:10,129
一个小的一个指数啊

240
00:10:10,129 --> 00:10:13,490
他们自己有一个他们的统计是创下十呃

241
00:10:13,490 --> 00:10:16,059
这个12年来最大的两日跌幅

242
00:10:16,059 --> 00:10:17,019
另外呢

243
00:10:17,019 --> 00:10:18,759
费城半导体指数

244
00:10:18,759 --> 00:10:23,500
创下了解放日以来最严重的两日跌幅

245
00:10:23,500 --> 00:10:26,980
那我我直接来讲一下这个里边还有没有救啊

246
00:10:26,980 --> 00:10:28,259
费办

247
00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:35,159
费班这边呢呃我们之前的时候啊

248
00:10:35,159 --> 00:10:37,700
给过大家一个重要的点位

249
00:10:37,700 --> 00:10:40,669
554~582

250
00:10:40,669 --> 00:10:45,250
今天盘中最低触及554块

251
00:10:45,250 --> 00:10:49,370
九毛一收盘收到了566块啊

252
00:10:49,370 --> 00:10:50,289
没有跌破啊

253
00:10:50,289 --> 00:10:51,750
这个算没有破位好吧

254
00:10:51,750 --> 00:10:53,490
这个最终是撑住了啊

255
00:10:53,490 --> 00:10:54,500
这是第一点

256
00:10:54,500 --> 00:10:57,519
它还存在着一线希望

257
00:10:57,519 --> 00:10:59,000
就是在底部

258
00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,659
然后开始往上翻的一个希望

259
00:11:01,659 --> 00:11:05,919
毕竟没有破嘛啊如果下周跌破了554

260
00:11:05,919 --> 00:11:10,840
那么将确认头部后面会进入一个回撤

261
00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:12,899
寻底的过程

262
00:11:12,899 --> 00:11:14,740
那么寻底在哪里

263
00:11:14,740 --> 00:11:15,419
是底啊

264
00:11:15,419 --> 00:11:17,169
这个地方我们没有办法判断

265
00:11:17,169 --> 00:11:21,490
我们只给大家之前写过两个止跌看点

266
00:11:21,490 --> 00:11:23,169
一个是489~532

267
00:11:23,169 --> 00:11:26,328
一个是450~467

268
00:11:26,808 --> 00:11:29,048
尽管费办没有破位

269
00:11:29,048 --> 00:11:32,389
但是有一些个股破位了

270
00:11:32,389 --> 00:11:33,849
给大家看一下

271
00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:41,519
之前我们讲过的marvel5254到271

272
00:11:41,519 --> 00:11:44,059
破位就转空头趋势

273
00:11:44,059 --> 00:11:46,119
它是确认破位的

274
00:11:48,438 --> 00:11:52,129
它的价格因为被高估的比较的多

275
00:11:52,129 --> 00:11:54,950
所以呢现在的看法就相对比较简单

276
00:11:54,950 --> 00:11:57,318
技术性要走一个下行回撤

277
00:11:57,318 --> 00:12:00,879
很有可能会看到210级下方啊

278
00:12:00,879 --> 00:12:03,549
这是目前marvel的一个大致情况

279
00:12:03,549 --> 00:12:06,690
所以呢你之前持有它的已经获利的

280
00:12:06,690 --> 00:12:08,549
那么我们之前给过破位的位置

281
00:12:08,549 --> 00:12:09,750
你看到破位的时候呢

282
00:12:09,750 --> 00:12:11,759
你应该做了一些处理啊

283
00:12:11,759 --> 00:12:12,600
如果没有做处理呢

284
00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:14,419
你就等下一轮止跌以后再反弹

285
00:12:14,419 --> 00:12:17,899
那就是下一轮的事情好额

286
00:12:17,899 --> 00:12:22,299
那么还有一个就是像MU和SNDK

287
00:12:24,879 --> 00:12:27,259
mu的情况和SDK的情况

288
00:12:27,259 --> 00:12:30,279
两只股票大家说他们算不算破位呃

289
00:12:30,279 --> 00:12:31,440
这两只股票呢

290
00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:36,169
都只是跌破了近期的一个最近的支撑呃

291
00:12:36,169 --> 00:12:36,970
严格来讲呢

292
00:12:36,970 --> 00:12:39,210
他们没有什么破不破位一说

293
00:12:39,210 --> 00:12:42,210
因为本身拉涨的斜率就太高了

294
00:12:42,210 --> 00:12:45,309
上方横盘的时间又太小了

295
00:12:45,309 --> 00:12:47,409
只是跌破一个中等支撑

296
00:12:47,409 --> 00:12:51,279
已经来到了下一个支撑所在的位置上方

297
00:12:51,279 --> 00:12:53,580
由于交易的筹码呀本来就不多

298
00:12:53,580 --> 00:12:57,568
这一系列的拉升本来就是悬在半空中

299
00:12:57,568 --> 00:13:00,068
所以后面呢涨十几个点

300
00:13:00,068 --> 00:13:01,089
跌十几个点

301
00:13:01,089 --> 00:13:02,369
那都是正常的啊

302
00:13:02,369 --> 00:13:04,990
所以这种就不算什么破不破位

303
00:13:04,990 --> 00:13:09,059
那么至于如果继续跟随市场情绪下杀

304
00:13:09,059 --> 00:13:11,259
那么什么时候企稳呢

305
00:13:11,259 --> 00:13:13,279
由情绪带来的买盘

306
00:13:13,279 --> 00:13:14,759
由情绪带来的卖盘

307
00:13:14,759 --> 00:13:15,500
那要企稳

308
00:13:15,500 --> 00:13:17,220
当然也有情绪带来的企稳吧

309
00:13:17,220 --> 00:13:20,769
因为现在呃很多杠杆盘还没有杀出来呢

310
00:13:20,769 --> 00:13:21,029
啊

311
00:13:21,029 --> 00:13:24,190
所以这里边有一些资金的短期的流动性的问题

312
00:13:24,190 --> 00:13:25,190
我们之前也讲过啊

313
00:13:25,190 --> 00:13:29,580
昨天还提了一次这种反馈式的杠杆的正循环

314
00:13:29,580 --> 00:13:30,899
推动了下跌过程中

315
00:13:30,899 --> 00:13:33,289
他很只要有人去买这个杠杆ETF

316
00:13:33,289 --> 00:13:35,169
那么资金就会往里边做这个买盘

317
00:13:35,169 --> 00:13:36,129
去接这个盘

318
00:13:36,129 --> 00:13:37,570
如果它能够涨上去

319
00:13:37,570 --> 00:13:38,750
那他这个就止跌了

320
00:13:38,750 --> 00:13:39,879
瞬间就止跌了

321
00:13:39,879 --> 00:13:42,059
反之它由于杠杆

322
00:13:42,059 --> 00:13:45,370
它有一个在正向环境中的正循环

323
00:13:45,370 --> 00:13:48,230
反向环境中呢它会有一个负循环

324
00:13:48,230 --> 00:13:51,129
它会导致不断的多杀多的踩踏啊

325
00:13:51,129 --> 00:13:52,370
那就是另外一个故事了啊

326
00:13:52,370 --> 00:13:56,509
所以你像镁光和ACDK这种情况

327
00:13:56,509 --> 00:13:59,870
什么时候能不能够马上翻上去啊

328
00:13:59,870 --> 00:14:01,620
或者呢还是继续下杀

329
00:14:01,620 --> 00:14:04,669
主要看大家买的信心啊

330
00:14:04,669 --> 00:14:07,049
从韩国市场来看看大家买的信心

331
00:14:07,049 --> 00:14:08,129
从美股市场来看

332
00:14:08,129 --> 00:14:09,750
很多朋友也表示很有信心

333
00:14:09,750 --> 00:14:11,549
那就看你们的信心如何

334
00:14:11,549 --> 00:14:12,750
你们的信心足够强

335
00:14:12,750 --> 00:14:14,350
顶住不往下走

336
00:14:14,350 --> 00:14:16,350
那他还有翻身的希望对吧

337
00:14:16,350 --> 00:14:17,029
你要顶不住

338
00:14:17,029 --> 00:14:18,470
跟着大家一块往下杀

339
00:14:18,470 --> 00:14:20,980
那就不是说它值多少钱

340
00:14:20,980 --> 00:14:22,820
基本面的问题跟那没关系啊

341
00:14:22,820 --> 00:14:27,299
那是属于情绪资金面带来的短期的踩踏行为啊

342
00:14:27,299 --> 00:14:31,350
后面我还会讲到关于流动性的问题好

343
00:14:31,350 --> 00:14:35,649
所以呢这个是对于呃目前这几只股票

344
00:14:35,649 --> 00:14:37,970
我们简单的提一下啊

345
00:14:38,220 --> 00:14:40,139
还有一件事情是呃

346
00:14:40,139 --> 00:14:42,929
关于这个大空头MACBI呢

347
00:14:42,929 --> 00:14:46,649
是在最新的监管文件中显示啊

348
00:14:46,649 --> 00:14:49,200
他正在做空几只股票

349
00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,000
哪几只呢

350
00:14:52,820 --> 00:14:54,980
英伟达啊

351
00:14:54,980 --> 00:14:58,639
英伟达还有AMAT

352
00:15:01,740 --> 00:15:04,480
就是卡特彼勒那个工业股票

353
00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:08,029
还有特斯拉前面三个啊

354
00:15:08,029 --> 00:15:10,149
除了特斯拉之外

355
00:15:10,149 --> 00:15:14,820
那三个都和人工智能浪潮有直接关系啊

356
00:15:14,820 --> 00:15:18,379
英伟达AMAT这都是半导体行业的对吧

357
00:15:18,379 --> 00:15:19,659
那CAT为什么呢

358
00:15:19,659 --> 00:15:23,440
因为半导体行业带来的电力设施的基础建设

359
00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:26,688
那么CAT里边是吃了比较多的这个涨幅啊

360
00:15:26,688 --> 00:15:27,928
这一直在打新高嘛

361
00:15:31,068 --> 00:15:34,429
简单讲他就是在做空半导体

362
00:15:34,429 --> 00:15:36,110
那么今天的市场盘中呢

363
00:15:36,110 --> 00:15:40,240
还传出他开始做空美光啊

364
00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:44,419
做空美光1000多块钱的时候开始做空美光

365
00:15:44,419 --> 00:15:49,100
另外他还谈到对于费城半导体的回撤的看法

366
00:15:49,100 --> 00:15:51,419
我给大家看一下什么地方

367
00:15:54,820 --> 00:16:00,879
他的看法是费城半导体有30%的回撤呃

368
00:16:00,879 --> 00:16:02,759
我呢给大家测了一下啊

369
00:16:02,759 --> 00:16:07,149
其实他这个30%和我之前给大家标注的

370
00:16:07,149 --> 00:16:10,950
450~467这一线就在这个位置啊

371
00:16:10,950 --> 00:16:12,059
就在这里

372
00:16:12,059 --> 00:16:14,440
我们之前这个地方标注过很久对吧

373
00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:17,500
上面第一个看点是489532的止跌看点

374
00:16:17,500 --> 00:16:20,960
第二个是450~467的止跌看点

375
00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:23,320
那么这个看法

376
00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:27,669
迈克波顿这个看法从技术面上看没毛病啊

377
00:16:27,669 --> 00:16:28,710
因为我也是这么看的嘛

378
00:16:28,710 --> 00:16:30,250
那两个止跌看点都有可能嘛

379
00:16:30,250 --> 00:16:31,789
第一个在这守不住就下方嘛

380
00:16:31,789 --> 00:16:33,109
那不就30%嘛对吧

381
00:16:33,109 --> 00:16:34,849
这是技术性的看法

382
00:16:34,849 --> 00:16:36,708
看法归看法啊

383
00:16:36,708 --> 00:16:38,509
事实归事实

384
00:16:38,509 --> 00:16:42,029
这个走不走的道是另外一回事啊

385
00:16:42,029 --> 00:16:43,210
是另外一回事

386
00:16:43,210 --> 00:16:45,809
大家经常有时候我标注出来的这个看点

387
00:16:45,809 --> 00:16:46,409
这个位置

388
00:16:46,409 --> 00:16:48,139
这个点位是干嘛用的

389
00:16:48,139 --> 00:16:50,220
是因为它潜在的能走到的

390
00:16:50,220 --> 00:16:51,259
那比如说能止跌的

391
00:16:51,259 --> 00:16:52,220
能突破的

392
00:16:52,220 --> 00:16:54,309
或者能发生行情变化的地方

393
00:16:54,309 --> 00:16:55,710
但他能不能走到呢

394
00:16:55,710 --> 00:16:56,990
你中间还有好几档呢

395
00:16:56,990 --> 00:16:58,110
554还没跌破呢

396
00:16:58,110 --> 00:17:00,210
4895322也没跌破呢对吧

397
00:17:00,210 --> 00:17:01,470
他的看法是这样

398
00:17:01,470 --> 00:17:03,639
如果看法它能够完成最终目标

399
00:17:03,639 --> 00:17:05,380
代表他可以获得最大收益嘛

400
00:17:05,380 --> 00:17:07,059
他如果中间发生呃

401
00:17:07,059 --> 00:17:07,900
发现了变盘了

402
00:17:07,900 --> 00:17:09,720
他完全可以中间就可以平仓

403
00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:10,579
可以离场啊

404
00:17:10,579 --> 00:17:11,818
无论是止损也好

405
00:17:11,818 --> 00:17:13,939
还是呢阶段性的止盈也好啊

406
00:17:13,939 --> 00:17:15,239
这是灵活调整的事情

407
00:17:15,239 --> 00:17:20,650
看法就是他认为会到450~4671线

408
00:17:20,650 --> 00:17:22,450
那么我比较悲观的看法呢

409
00:17:22,450 --> 00:17:25,450
我觉得这个地方反正道呢也没毛病啊

410
00:17:25,450 --> 00:17:29,710
但是道大家就越往下就越别去再继续去杀了

411
00:17:29,710 --> 00:17:32,329
因为再往下真的到了这里再去杀呢

412
00:17:32,329 --> 00:17:33,549
意义就不大了啊

413
00:17:33,549 --> 00:17:36,230
因为咱们讲过美国的

414
00:17:36,230 --> 00:17:40,130
目前从标普的呃EPS的贡献度来讲

415
00:17:40,130 --> 00:17:43,609
非洲半导体半导体公司的贡献非常大啊

416
00:17:43,609 --> 00:17:44,740
业绩贡献很大

417
00:17:44,740 --> 00:17:46,839
毕竟他们是有业绩支撑的

418
00:17:46,839 --> 00:17:48,640
不是完全的空中楼阁

419
00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:50,759
只是有的东西被炒过头了

420
00:17:50,759 --> 00:17:55,250
他们需要进行一波筹码交换好额

421
00:17:55,250 --> 00:17:56,630
这个是迈克波顿的一个

422
00:17:56,630 --> 00:17:58,990
30%的看法和看点啊

423
00:17:58,990 --> 00:17:59,829
还是那句话

424
00:17:59,829 --> 00:18:01,349
位置看的没毛病

425
00:18:01,349 --> 00:18:03,230
能不能走得到是另外一件事情啊

426
00:18:03,230 --> 00:18:06,779
大家呢我们只能边走边看好

427
00:18:06,779 --> 00:18:09,480
还有一些其他变化较大的个股

428
00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:11,599
我也给大家讲一下

429
00:18:13,700 --> 00:18:16,140
呃我们看一下特斯拉

430
00:18:16,650 --> 00:18:20,289
特斯拉呢今天有两条和他相关的消息

431
00:18:20,289 --> 00:18:23,150
一个呢是根据媒体的报道呢

432
00:18:23,150 --> 00:18:25,690
在大力推广人工智能之后呢

433
00:18:25,690 --> 00:18:29,529
特斯拉将员工每周的人工智能的支出上限

434
00:18:29,529 --> 00:18:31,119
设定为200美元啊

435
00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:31,960
不然太贵了啊

436
00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:33,240
要节约开支对吧

437
00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:34,920
相当于对于token的使用呢

438
00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:36,059
大家要限制一下

439
00:18:36,059 --> 00:18:37,920
其实很多公司现在都这么干对吧

440
00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:40,390
都在进行这种呃限制

441
00:18:40,390 --> 00:18:43,309
免得这个确实是花钱太猛

442
00:18:43,309 --> 00:18:47,190
第二个就是它的二季度的交付远超预期

443
00:18:47,190 --> 00:18:52,210
交付量呢是48万126辆啊

444
00:18:52,210 --> 00:18:56,440
这个是超出市场预期的40万6600辆

445
00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:59,220
尽管它的交付量超过预期

446
00:18:59,220 --> 00:19:03,279
但它的股价还是下跌了7.5%

447
00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,480
要么说特斯拉这支股票叫波斯拉

448
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:07,759
一点都没毛病

449
00:19:07,759 --> 00:19:08,630
为什么

450
00:19:08,630 --> 00:19:09,390
你看啊

451
00:19:09,390 --> 00:19:11,809
在交付量出来之前的几天

452
00:19:11,809 --> 00:19:13,539
大家就一直在说啊

453
00:19:13,539 --> 00:19:14,900
它的预期超预期

454
00:19:14,900 --> 00:19:16,339
超预期肯定会比较好

455
00:19:16,339 --> 00:19:19,450
超预期那个股价呢也是飞快对吧

456
00:19:19,450 --> 00:19:20,769
咚咚咚四天就上去了

457
00:19:20,769 --> 00:19:21,250
一个波段

458
00:19:21,250 --> 00:19:21,829
走完了

459
00:19:21,829 --> 00:19:22,890
直接走到上面

460
00:19:22,890 --> 00:19:23,769
强压力430

461
00:19:23,769 --> 00:19:24,859
今天对吧

462
00:19:24,859 --> 00:19:25,599
今天最高

463
00:19:25,599 --> 00:19:30,400
昨天的最高点是432块八毛六

464
00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,220
今天432块三毛五

465
00:19:32,220 --> 00:19:33,369
两个糕点一样

466
00:19:33,369 --> 00:19:37,079
都是接近上沿震荡上沿最极端的位置

467
00:19:37,079 --> 00:19:40,019
然后直接一个砸下来

468
00:19:40,019 --> 00:19:44,750
非常典型的买消息卖事实

469
00:19:44,750 --> 00:19:48,849
就是利用预期的利好推动波段上行

470
00:19:48,849 --> 00:19:50,329
炒到强压力

471
00:19:50,329 --> 00:19:52,329
伴随着交付消息的落地

472
00:19:52,329 --> 00:19:55,059
那么直接落袋为安

473
00:19:55,059 --> 00:19:56,140
说实话

474
00:19:56,140 --> 00:19:59,819
做波段的机构这个真的是吃干抹净啊

475
00:19:59,819 --> 00:20:01,559
这个嘴巴非常的干净

476
00:20:01,559 --> 00:20:02,779
动作非常快

477
00:20:02,779 --> 00:20:04,509
完全不拖泥带水

478
00:20:04,509 --> 00:20:07,450
那么这一下呢价格一跌

479
00:20:07,450 --> 00:20:09,759
他又得往下沿去靠

480
00:20:09,759 --> 00:20:12,279
唉下沿一靠呢代表什么

481
00:20:12,279 --> 00:20:15,119
代表下一轮的区间波段诶

482
00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:16,720
又可以做准备了啊

483
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:17,880
其实就这么个意思哈

484
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:21,900
所以波斯拉就是这么个做法好

485
00:20:21,900 --> 00:20:24,880
然后说一下meta

486
00:20:25,559 --> 00:20:28,359
meta呢突破611之后止跌啊

487
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,119
今天回吐4.9啊

488
00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:31,200
跌的还比较多

489
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:32,369
怎么看啊

490
00:20:32,369 --> 00:20:33,740
看法昨天讲过了

491
00:20:33,740 --> 00:20:37,000
回撤559以上没毛病啊

492
00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:38,839
仍旧是一个突破止跌

493
00:20:38,839 --> 00:20:41,059
但是呢他需要慢慢的震

494
00:20:41,059 --> 00:20:42,329
上方没那么快

495
00:20:42,329 --> 00:20:45,569
上方呢还有几个较强的压力压着呢啊

496
00:20:45,569 --> 00:20:47,130
不要期望走太快

497
00:20:47,130 --> 00:20:48,269
需要一点时间

498
00:20:48,269 --> 00:20:50,410
特别是二季度的财报

499
00:20:50,410 --> 00:20:51,990
那么市场呢需要等一等

500
00:20:51,990 --> 00:20:54,589
那么如果跌穿了551

501
00:20:54,589 --> 00:20:56,470
相当于呢又回去了啊

502
00:20:56,470 --> 00:20:57,750
又要回到下方去震荡

503
00:20:57,750 --> 00:20:58,980
但现在离得还远啊

504
00:20:58,980 --> 00:20:59,539
离得还比较远

505
00:20:59,539 --> 00:21:01,259
所以呢基本上没什么变化

506
00:21:01,259 --> 00:21:02,640
无非是昨天涨了一部分

507
00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:04,409
今天又回吐了一部分

508
00:21:04,409 --> 00:21:05,509
看位置啊

509
00:21:05,509 --> 00:21:09,720
看位置559~611好

510
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,740
然后其他的微软不多说了啊

511
00:21:12,740 --> 00:21:15,599
微软这边的上方392~435

512
00:21:15,599 --> 00:21:16,660
目前390嘛

513
00:21:16,660 --> 00:21:18,619
测一下这个右侧能不能过嘛

514
00:21:18,619 --> 00:21:20,579
过不去继续掉头再回来啊

515
00:21:20,579 --> 00:21:22,400
就那么个逻辑过去了以后呢

516
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:24,589
上面就要打一个右侧了

517
00:21:24,589 --> 00:21:26,089
追涨资金就要进来了

518
00:21:26,089 --> 00:21:28,589
那上方的好日子就要开始了

519
00:21:28,589 --> 00:21:31,119
现在呢没过去之前让他慢慢走

520
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:32,960
谷歌亚马逊啊

521
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:34,000
没什么看点啊

522
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:37,500
这个苹果今天一个反弹上去

523
00:21:37,500 --> 00:21:41,680
之前破位做投的307~315瞬间就到了啊

524
00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:43,200
能不能过去不知道啊

525
00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:44,180
这个很难讲啊

526
00:21:44,180 --> 00:21:46,460
还是要看市场整体后

527
00:21:46,460 --> 00:21:50,190
下个星期往后的流动性等会会讲好

528
00:21:50,190 --> 00:21:51,390
英伟达

529
00:21:57,068 --> 00:21:59,109
今天的成交量呢也没有显著放大

530
00:21:59,109 --> 00:22:02,410
呃这种情况我通常把它看成是横盘

531
00:22:02,410 --> 00:22:03,390
很多朋友问呢

532
00:22:03,390 --> 00:22:05,069
那这个真的是资本支出

533
00:22:05,069 --> 00:22:07,539
如果未来增速放缓的情况下

534
00:22:07,539 --> 00:22:08,400
会不会受影响

535
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,140
昨天讲过了会受影响啊

536
00:22:10,140 --> 00:22:12,630
但是由于它本身没有被炒的太高

537
00:22:12,630 --> 00:22:16,299
所以呢他只是会从高速的增长

538
00:22:16,299 --> 00:22:19,900
增速放缓呢变成一个正常的增长

539
00:22:19,900 --> 00:22:22,910
那这种情况股价应该就走的比较慢了啊

540
00:22:22,910 --> 00:22:23,670
所以像这种情况

541
00:22:23,670 --> 00:22:25,430
如果你特别寻求嗯

542
00:22:25,430 --> 00:22:28,009
高高速快速股价增长的朋友呢

543
00:22:28,009 --> 00:22:29,269
你就思考一下啊

544
00:22:29,269 --> 00:22:31,450
你要不要再等它慢慢的拿

545
00:22:31,450 --> 00:22:32,670
慢慢的往上去走啊

546
00:22:32,670 --> 00:22:34,660
这是你要思考的快与慢的问题

547
00:22:34,660 --> 00:22:36,980
我个人呢英伟达是我的第二大持仓啊

548
00:22:36,980 --> 00:22:37,819
我持有不动啊

549
00:22:37,819 --> 00:22:39,099
我觉得没什么太大毛病啊

550
00:22:39,099 --> 00:22:41,339
后面呢还是会继续上看啊

551
00:22:41,339 --> 00:22:43,420
上方的这个前高呢不是它的高点

552
00:22:43,420 --> 00:22:46,279
这个236不是它的高点

553
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:47,740
好额

554
00:22:47,740 --> 00:22:51,920
然后呢还有就是像AMD

555
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,470
MD的情况也比较的简单啊

556
00:22:56,470 --> 00:22:57,670
也是一个横盘对待啊

557
00:22:57,670 --> 00:22:58,670
今天上去以后

558
00:22:58,670 --> 00:22:59,789
昨天上去下来

559
00:22:59,789 --> 00:23:01,549
5490~520啊

560
00:23:01,549 --> 00:23:02,920
第一个支撑刚刚摸到

561
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:04,740
没有发生任何趋势性的改变

562
00:23:04,740 --> 00:23:06,119
尽管动了四个点

563
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:07,240
但别的没动啊

564
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:08,460
如果费半破位

565
00:23:08,460 --> 00:23:09,720
大家还是要注意一下

566
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,970
因为它上方几乎也是比较空的好吧

567
00:23:12,970 --> 00:23:15,130
因为它的涨幅比较大

568
00:23:15,130 --> 00:23:18,789
他是在费半里边属于斜率比较高的啊

569
00:23:18,789 --> 00:23:22,138
是属于其中一个好额

570
00:23:22,138 --> 00:23:24,818
然后呢其他的呃

571
00:23:24,818 --> 00:23:30,240
呃我就再说一下这个SRG和这个NETFLIX啊

572
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,119
今天都大涨了四个点

573
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:32,759
五个点

574
00:23:32,759 --> 00:23:34,759
买没买没有买啊

575
00:23:34,759 --> 00:23:36,039
为什么没有买

576
00:23:36,039 --> 00:23:39,279
我就结合着流动性来讲一下

577
00:23:39,279 --> 00:23:42,160
主要是大盘的流动性

578
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,420
现在有一些不稳定

579
00:23:44,420 --> 00:23:47,799
有一些信息我还没有办法确认

580
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:53,000
给大家看一下这张图表

581
00:23:54,599 --> 00:23:56,200
这张图表呢什么意思呢

582
00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:57,869
就是市场啊

583
00:23:57,869 --> 00:24:01,490
现在成交量啊爆炸式的增长

584
00:24:01,490 --> 00:24:04,930
就整个6月份特别大的成交量

585
00:24:04,930 --> 00:24:08,909
但是呢流动性非常的糟糕

586
00:24:09,189 --> 00:24:14,189
6月份的标普500指数的mini期货的账面流动性

587
00:24:14,189 --> 00:24:17,319
环比暴跌了33%

588
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:22,659
从1200万美元骤降只有800万了

589
00:24:22,659 --> 00:24:23,739
与此同时呢

590
00:24:23,739 --> 00:24:27,479
美国股市却创下了2026年以来的最高的

591
00:24:27,479 --> 00:24:28,618
日均成交量

592
00:24:28,618 --> 00:24:31,130
达到了233亿股

593
00:24:31,130 --> 00:24:35,130
特别是6月18号成交了330亿股

594
00:24:35,130 --> 00:24:38,220
6月26号成交了320亿股

595
00:24:38,220 --> 00:24:39,460
这什么意思呢

596
00:24:39,460 --> 00:24:43,440
就是市场交易的股票数量更多了

597
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:49,319
但是资金的底池却大大缩小了

598
00:24:49,319 --> 00:24:53,140
这个就意味着每一档价位的资金

599
00:24:53,140 --> 00:24:54,839
流动性是不足的

600
00:24:54,839 --> 00:24:57,250
在标普的迷你期货上

601
00:24:57,250 --> 00:25:00,289
那么它呢主要是用来做一些价格

602
00:25:00,289 --> 00:25:02,490
发现和对冲作用的

603
00:25:02,490 --> 00:25:05,430
这个就意味着由于流动性不好

604
00:25:05,430 --> 00:25:09,930
每一笔大额订单都会进一步的推高市场价格

605
00:25:09,930 --> 00:25:12,299
因为中间接盘的少了嘛对吧

606
00:25:12,299 --> 00:25:16,819
比如以前一个价位可以挂100万200万

607
00:25:16,819 --> 00:25:19,059
那么现在一个价位只挂10万

608
00:25:19,059 --> 00:25:20,660
你这个时候要买100万的股票

609
00:25:20,660 --> 00:25:22,619
你是不是要买十档才能买得上去啊

610
00:25:22,619 --> 00:25:23,900
价格是不是飞了对吧

611
00:25:23,900 --> 00:25:24,680
这个意思啊

612
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,240
所以这个执行成本在上升

613
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:30,779
所以日内呢看到出现一些巨大价格的波动

614
00:25:30,779 --> 00:25:32,130
成为了常态

615
00:25:32,130 --> 00:25:34,069
这个就是我们在6月份看到

616
00:25:34,069 --> 00:25:36,279
已经发生过的事情啊

617
00:25:36,279 --> 00:25:39,039
那么这是在上涨的过程中

618
00:25:39,039 --> 00:25:40,480
流动性不足推的特别快

619
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:42,049
价格涨的也很快

620
00:25:42,049 --> 00:25:45,490
那么当反向行情发生的时候

621
00:25:45,490 --> 00:25:49,690
账面流动性不足就成了一个风险

622
00:25:49,690 --> 00:25:54,868
意味着一旦有较大的卖盘冲击出现的时候

623
00:25:54,868 --> 00:25:56,669
你下面承接盘不够啊

624
00:25:56,669 --> 00:25:57,808
每一档的资金不够

625
00:25:57,808 --> 00:25:59,638
那价格只能被打的更低嘛

626
00:25:59,638 --> 00:26:02,618
也可以让市场大幅下跌

627
00:26:02,618 --> 00:26:05,638
所以呢这就是一个潜在的雷

628
00:26:05,638 --> 00:26:07,838
那就说为什么流动性不足呢

629
00:26:07,838 --> 00:26:08,719
这是因为啊

630
00:26:08,719 --> 00:26:14,589
机构不想在当前的这个诡异的各种波动环境下

631
00:26:14,589 --> 00:26:17,150
被动的去执行更多的单子

632
00:26:17,150 --> 00:26:20,960
他不想当接盘侠或者不想接不确定性嘛

633
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:25,000
你毕竟现在全球的半导体啊

634
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:29,650
包括存储类的股票的高杠杆这么高对吧

635
00:26:29,650 --> 00:26:31,930
AM的资产管理规模也这么大

636
00:26:31,930 --> 00:26:34,388
风险进场口也这么大

637
00:26:34,669 --> 00:26:37,989
他们还没有开始踩踏呢

638
00:26:41,828 --> 00:26:43,589
出现了真正的踩踏

639
00:26:43,589 --> 00:26:46,490
那么或许半导体跌破554的时候

640
00:26:46,490 --> 00:26:47,910
有可能会看得到啊

641
00:26:47,910 --> 00:26:49,069
我只能说有可能啊

642
00:26:49,069 --> 00:26:51,170
因为具体还要看买盘的力量嘛

643
00:26:51,170 --> 00:26:52,609
刚刚讲过大家的情绪嘛

644
00:26:52,609 --> 00:26:54,730
因为很多朋友毕竟还仍旧看好嘛

645
00:26:54,730 --> 00:26:55,910
还是逢低要买

646
00:26:55,910 --> 00:26:56,509
对不对

647
00:26:56,509 --> 00:26:58,869
那大这这些朋友呢只要逢力再买

648
00:26:58,869 --> 00:27:01,269
他能够对抗掉上方的抛压的话

649
00:27:01,269 --> 00:27:02,130
那就没问题嘛

650
00:27:02,130 --> 00:27:04,619
所以能不能看到踩踏跌破554

651
00:27:04,619 --> 00:27:07,559
我们才有机会能看得到

652
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:09,200
说这个什么意思呢

653
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:13,680
就是啊我们回到节目最开始的时候

654
00:27:15,700 --> 00:27:17,980
我说这个标普呢

655
00:27:17,980 --> 00:27:23,739
市场啊在头两个交易日调仓是非常明显的

656
00:27:23,739 --> 00:27:24,138
对不对

657
00:27:24,138 --> 00:27:25,358
我们说这个市场的

658
00:27:25,358 --> 00:27:28,920
你包括像呃标普等权重指数

659
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:32,069
已经是再创历史新高

660
00:27:32,069 --> 00:27:36,019
大家但是要看一看他调的是什么仓位啊

661
00:27:36,019 --> 00:27:41,539
他们调的是防御性的仓位

662
00:27:41,539 --> 00:27:44,949
呵呵斯防御仓位是什么意思

663
00:27:44,949 --> 00:27:46,348
防御性的仓位

664
00:27:46,348 --> 00:27:50,929
就意味着股市在下跌的时候会跌的慢一点啊

665
00:27:50,929 --> 00:27:52,868
大家看一下医疗保健

666
00:27:52,868 --> 00:27:54,119
消费品

667
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:56,599
还有公共事业领长

668
00:27:56,599 --> 00:27:58,460
这个都是防御性啊

669
00:27:58,460 --> 00:28:02,409
消费必需品和公共事业是典型的防御股

670
00:28:02,409 --> 00:28:05,429
医疗保健是攻守兼备的防御股

671
00:28:05,429 --> 00:28:08,619
当机构不知道市场应该干嘛的时候

672
00:28:08,619 --> 00:28:12,299
通常他们首选的就是医疗保健啊

673
00:28:12,299 --> 00:28:15,069
他们首选的就这玩意儿好

674
00:28:15,069 --> 00:28:16,549
那么这种情况呢

675
00:28:16,549 --> 00:28:18,849
就是大家说那他为什么要去放在上面

676
00:28:18,849 --> 00:28:20,769
它不能够直接空仓吗

677
00:28:20,769 --> 00:28:21,130
对吧

678
00:28:21,130 --> 00:28:25,019
直接现金咱们存账户里这个货币基金不行吗

679
00:28:25,019 --> 00:28:25,819
不行啊

680
00:28:25,819 --> 00:28:29,839
因为机构有最低持仓的要求

681
00:28:30,079 --> 00:28:31,400
防御股什么意思

682
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:32,759
意味着在股市下跌的时候

683
00:28:32,759 --> 00:28:34,329
它会跌的慢一点啊

684
00:28:34,329 --> 00:28:35,329
不是说不跌啊

685
00:28:35,329 --> 00:28:36,549
是跌的慢一点

686
00:28:36,549 --> 00:28:37,549
那它不空仓

687
00:28:37,549 --> 00:28:39,769
他要调到上面还得挨跌挨揍

688
00:28:39,769 --> 00:28:41,940
是因为他们有最低持仓的要求

689
00:28:41,940 --> 00:28:43,339
不像咱们散户一样

690
00:28:43,339 --> 00:28:45,159
你可以随便的清仓

691
00:28:45,159 --> 00:28:49,239
所以当他们监测到有一些风险预警的时候

692
00:28:49,239 --> 00:28:51,789
就会把这个资金暂时放到

693
00:28:51,789 --> 00:28:55,220
更抗揍的板块和个股上

694
00:28:55,579 --> 00:28:56,900
所以这个意思就是

695
00:28:56,900 --> 00:28:59,529
7月份的头两个交易日的调仓风格啊

696
00:28:59,529 --> 00:29:04,390
呃我只能说对于周期股和上半年的弱势股

697
00:29:04,390 --> 00:29:06,029
是有利的啊

698
00:29:06,029 --> 00:29:08,630
但是呢它到底是防御属性

699
00:29:08,630 --> 00:29:10,069
阶段性的避险

700
00:29:10,069 --> 00:29:12,650
还是彻底调转枪头

701
00:29:12,650 --> 00:29:15,349
准备在下半年炒这些板块了

702
00:29:15,349 --> 00:29:17,599
咱们还需要等一件事情

703
00:29:17,599 --> 00:29:22,710
等费城半导体破位验证才知道

704
00:29:22,710 --> 00:29:24,650
如果费半不破位

705
00:29:24,650 --> 00:29:26,150
那还验证不了啊

706
00:29:26,150 --> 00:29:27,309
因为费半破位之后

707
00:29:27,309 --> 00:29:29,450
如果其他的股票跌幅非常的缓

708
00:29:29,450 --> 00:29:31,049
甚至还在上涨

709
00:29:31,049 --> 00:29:32,829
挺着指数小跌

710
00:29:32,829 --> 00:29:34,170
没有跟着大跌

711
00:29:34,170 --> 00:29:37,369
那这个就可能真的是一个大的一个调仓过程

712
00:29:37,369 --> 00:29:41,119
下半年那些之前的大家比较弱势的股票

713
00:29:41,119 --> 00:29:42,859
下半年可能就有救了啊

714
00:29:42,859 --> 00:29:44,079
所以是这么个逻辑

715
00:29:44,079 --> 00:29:47,170
你现在我们还要看一看到底他是防御短期防御

716
00:29:47,170 --> 00:29:49,690
回头防完了半导体走完了

717
00:29:49,690 --> 00:29:51,359
他又回到半导体杀进去

718
00:29:51,359 --> 00:29:52,160
还是说呢

719
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:54,619
整个就开始炒这些上半年的周期股

720
00:29:54,619 --> 00:29:56,240
和弱势的周期股了啊

721
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:56,680
这个里面

722
00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:00,000
所以这里面有一个流动性不好的问题

723
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:01,289
是我比较担心的

724
00:30:01,289 --> 00:30:02,809
我是怕流动性不好

725
00:30:02,809 --> 00:30:06,710
有这种胖手指大单一砸下来把市场给带崩了

726
00:30:06,710 --> 00:30:10,440
所以呢我个人呢就没有那么着急

727
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:14,119
可所以这就回到刚才为什么我的NETFLIX和SRG

728
00:30:14,119 --> 00:30:18,140
因为他们两个啊也是属于跌得很狠的个股

729
00:30:18,140 --> 00:30:20,670
最近其实已经释放了大部分的抛压嘛

730
00:30:20,670 --> 00:30:23,430
但是所以放到里边相对还安全一点啊

731
00:30:23,430 --> 00:30:24,750
因为释放了大部分的抛压了

732
00:30:24,750 --> 00:30:26,480
大家已经卖的差不多了

733
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:29,119
所以呢但你不能确认的是

734
00:30:29,119 --> 00:30:34,049
他是彻底企稳还是暂时的资金的存放

735
00:30:34,049 --> 00:30:38,730
这就是为什么我呢没有去买的原因啊

736
00:30:38,730 --> 00:30:40,670
大家说一涨了还没买吗

737
00:30:40,670 --> 00:30:41,839
没有啊

738
00:30:41,839 --> 00:30:43,640
如果后面真的买额买入的话

739
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:45,500
我会同步在节目中更新的

740
00:30:45,500 --> 00:30:47,880
呃另外呢我本来我在休假嘛

741
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,960
呃盘中呢不呃没有办法经常看盘

742
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,240
所以呢我需要稳一稳啊

743
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:54,400
我需要等一等

744
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,710
不会马上就买入啊

745
00:30:56,710 --> 00:30:58,549
特殊时期特殊对待啊

746
00:30:58,549 --> 00:31:00,829
因为这个钱呢是赚不完的

747
00:31:00,829 --> 00:31:02,549
他可以亏完

748
00:31:02,549 --> 00:31:06,819
比如啊最近呢其实有一些高位啊

749
00:31:06,819 --> 00:31:11,720
买入了两倍ETF韩国存储个股的朋友

750
00:31:12,039 --> 00:31:14,500
经过最近的这个几天的下跌呢

751
00:31:14,500 --> 00:31:18,180
他们要上涨150%才能回本啊

752
00:31:18,180 --> 00:31:20,420
指的是那些高位在追的还在追的哈

753
00:31:20,420 --> 00:31:23,599
要上涨150%才能回本

754
00:31:23,599 --> 00:31:26,220
这是一个简单的数学问题啊

755
00:31:26,220 --> 00:31:27,579
机会大不大

756
00:31:27,579 --> 00:31:31,559
大家呢可以自行思考和讨论一下

757
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:32,400
好

758
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,279
那这个呢就是今天啊带给大家

759
00:31:34,279 --> 00:31:38,880
关于这个市场的一些内容的更新和解读呃

760
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:39,839
从下个星期开始呢

761
00:31:39,839 --> 00:31:41,400
刚刚才讲过了呃

762
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:45,650
节目调整的时间呢就会比较的呃

763
00:31:45,650 --> 00:31:47,230
这个那个叫什么呃

764
00:31:47,230 --> 00:31:48,210
比较的奇怪啊

765
00:31:48,210 --> 00:31:50,720
希望大家千万记住呃

766
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,400
到这个美东第二天盘前的六点

767
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:54,720
美西的凌晨的三点

768
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:55,880
北京时间的18点啊

769
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:57,299
这个时候来查一下节目

770
00:31:57,299 --> 00:32:01,380
或者来查一下关于社区里的节目通知啊

771
00:32:01,380 --> 00:32:02,779
如果有其他的问题呢

772
00:32:02,779 --> 00:32:04,670
会先发通知呃

773
00:32:04,670 --> 00:32:05,710
比较好的沟通呢

774
00:32:05,710 --> 00:32:07,970
也让大家呢节约时间呃

775
00:32:07,970 --> 00:32:10,190
有一些更很大的行情发生的时候呢

776
00:32:10,190 --> 00:32:13,839
我肯定会尽量还是跟大家保持一个联系啊

777
00:32:13,839 --> 00:32:15,599
但是如果行情特别无聊

778
00:32:15,599 --> 00:32:18,019
或许呢我就以休息为主

779
00:32:18,019 --> 00:32:19,349
好吧好

780
00:32:19,349 --> 00:32:21,349
另外呢关于呃答疑

781
00:32:21,349 --> 00:32:21,910
刚才也讲过

782
00:32:21,910 --> 00:32:24,630
会员节目从下周开始和答呃都是正常更新的啊

783
00:32:24,630 --> 00:32:26,109
答疑还是也是正常的啊

784
00:32:26,109 --> 00:32:28,640
答疑呢请大家呃如果有问题呢

785
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:30,799
就到这个社区里边去逮

786
00:32:30,799 --> 00:32:34,000
找一个带有QA图片和标志的帖子

787
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,440
如果你加入了RENO答疑级别呢

788
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:37,680
就能看到这个帖子啊

789
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:39,380
没有加入这个级别是看不到的

790
00:32:39,380 --> 00:32:39,759
呃

791
00:32:39,759 --> 00:32:42,619
我正常呢还是会在平常和大家呃

792
00:32:42,619 --> 00:32:43,779
解答一些问题呃

793
00:32:43,779 --> 00:32:45,430
但是呢有时候放假呀

794
00:32:45,430 --> 00:32:47,750
我可能会稍微的拖沓一点啊

795
00:32:47,750 --> 00:32:50,180
请大家理解好

796
00:32:50,180 --> 00:32:52,519
那这个呢就是咱们今天节目的全部内容

797
00:32:52,519 --> 00:32:53,779
长周末开始啦

798
00:32:53,779 --> 00:32:56,640
呃有一些行情的该发生的已经发生了

799
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:59,700
大家现在再去焦急也没用啊

800
00:32:59,700 --> 00:33:02,319
咱们就干脆耐耐心心的啊

801
00:33:02,319 --> 00:33:04,200
好好的把长周末过完

802
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:06,380
好好的呢把球看一看

803
00:33:06,380 --> 00:33:08,440
好好的呢调整一下

804
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:12,500
因为下半年是一个新的开始啊

805
00:33:12,500 --> 00:33:14,849
因为每一个半年其实对美股来讲

806
00:33:14,849 --> 00:33:17,170
都是有一些风格上的切换

807
00:33:17,170 --> 00:33:19,930
呃其实在历史上这个也并不罕见啊

808
00:33:19,930 --> 00:33:22,839
所以希望像我昨天说的那句话

809
00:33:22,839 --> 00:33:24,619
希望呢下半年呃

810
00:33:24,619 --> 00:33:28,239
市场能给一些长线投资的朋友

811
00:33:28,239 --> 00:33:31,759
更加积极的正向的反馈

812
00:33:31,759 --> 00:33:34,420
另外7月中下旬啊

813
00:33:34,420 --> 00:33:36,400
财报也要开始了啊

814
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:37,779
也是比较忙碌的

815
00:33:37,779 --> 00:33:42,759
呃特别是注意大科技的资本支出的潜在的

816
00:33:42,759 --> 00:33:43,940
任何的变化啊

817
00:33:43,940 --> 00:33:46,359
可能也会搅得市场天翻地覆

818
00:33:46,359 --> 00:33:49,160
好这个呢就是咱们今天节目的全部内容啊

819
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:51,559
如果你觉得我的节目对你有所帮助

820
00:33:51,559 --> 00:33:56,779
还是希望大家能够多多的帮忙点赞评论转发

821
00:33:56,779 --> 00:34:00,579
昨天很多朋友呢打赏赞助了咖啡

822
00:34:00,579 --> 00:34:03,549
非常感谢大家的支持啊

823
00:34:03,549 --> 00:34:05,890
好那我们今天就到这了啊

824
00:34:05,890 --> 00:34:09,789
咱们就下个周二的盘前啊

825
00:34:09,789 --> 00:34:12,300
咱们不见不散

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