BV1nujU6JEf4 · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,020 --> 00:00:01,800 我是艾尔布鲁克斯 2 00:00:01,800 --> 00:00:04,849 感谢您收看布鲁克斯交易课程 3 00:00:04,849 --> 00:00:07,290 这是关于交易者方程和概率 4 00:00:07,290 --> 00:00:10,619 的五个视频中的第二个啊 5 00:00:12,980 --> 00:00:15,660 交易者经常会听到风险回报比 6 00:00:15,660 --> 00:00:18,199 这是你进行交易时的两个变量 7 00:00:18,199 --> 00:00:19,399 风险和回报 8 00:00:19,399 --> 00:00:22,980 还有一个你从未听说过的同样重要的变量 9 00:00:22,980 --> 00:00:25,120 那就是概率 10 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:31,359 在进行交易时 11 00:00:31,359 --> 00:00:33,619 你必须考虑所有三个变量 12 00:00:33,619 --> 00:00:36,479 概率风险和回报 13 00:00:38,859 --> 00:00:39,939 如果你愿意 14 00:00:39,939 --> 00:00:42,359 可以把它们简单地看成两个变量 15 00:00:42,359 --> 00:00:43,820 概率和风险回报 16 00:00:43,820 --> 00:00:47,109 比如果交易者看到这个大尾部的突破 17 00:00:47,109 --> 00:00:49,070 然后第二次尝试上涨 18 00:00:49,070 --> 00:00:52,329 在这里再次反转向下 19 00:00:56,820 --> 00:00:59,659 他可能会在这个K线型的低点以下卖出 20 00:00:59,659 --> 00:01:01,560 并在这个K线型的高点以上 21 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:02,820 或这里设置止损 22 00:01:02,820 --> 00:01:04,459 结果出现了大空头趋势 23 00:01:04,459 --> 00:01:07,099 无论他是在这里止损还是在这里止损 24 00:01:07,099 --> 00:01:09,799 与风险相比收益都很小 25 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:13,540 他最终做了一笔风险回报比很高的交易 26 00:01:13,540 --> 00:01:15,280 然而在这里卖出 27 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:18,560 你获得波段下跌的概率很小 28 00:01:18,859 --> 00:01:21,060 更有可能是横盘概率低 29 00:01:21,060 --> 00:01:22,659 风险回报比却很大 30 00:01:22,659 --> 00:01:25,340 如果交易者更喜欢高概率 31 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,319 他就会等待空头突破和跟进 32 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:32,620 K线及这根K线收盘价 33 00:01:32,620 --> 00:01:35,920 低于过去30根K线的低点 34 00:01:36,909 --> 00:01:40,289 从空头突破的开盘价到空头突破的收盘价 35 00:01:40,289 --> 00:01:41,888 市场下跌的概率很高 36 00:01:41,888 --> 00:01:43,920 至少要经过一个测量的过程 37 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:45,159 也就是在这里下跌 38 00:01:45,159 --> 00:01:48,709 60%或更高的概率会跌到这里 39 00:01:48,709 --> 00:01:51,109 然而如果你在这里卖出 40 00:01:51,109 --> 00:01:53,379 你就获得了一笔高概率交易 41 00:01:53,379 --> 00:01:55,799 但你的止损点仍在这里或这里 42 00:01:55,799 --> 00:01:59,478 因此风险要比在这里卖出的交易者大得多 43 00:01:59,478 --> 00:02:01,899 这位交易者的风险回报很高 44 00:02:01,899 --> 00:02:03,000 概率较低 45 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:04,920 这位交易者的风险更大 46 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:06,060 止损点更远 47 00:02:06,060 --> 00:02:07,599 但赚钱的概率更高 48 00:02:07,599 --> 00:02:10,659 你也可以在这个双顶雄奇低点一低点 49 00:02:10,659 --> 00:02:14,340 两双顶这个高点和这个高点下方卖出 50 00:02:16,900 --> 00:02:19,780 这也是一个赚钱概率很高的交易 51 00:02:19,780 --> 00:02:21,800 但同样止损点在这里 52 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:23,460 这就是权衡的结果 53 00:02:23,460 --> 00:02:25,020 要么是赚钱概率高 54 00:02:25,020 --> 00:02:26,979 但风险回报总是很低 55 00:02:26,979 --> 00:02:28,580 要么是风险回报高 56 00:02:28,580 --> 00:02:30,900 但赚钱概率低 57 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:44,759 每一笔交易总有一家机构买入 58 00:02:44,759 --> 00:02:46,180 另一家机构卖出 59 00:02:46,180 --> 00:02:50,400 而这两家机构都必须有理由进行交易 60 00:02:50,810 --> 00:02:51,610 一般来说 61 00:02:51,610 --> 00:02:52,879 这是一种权衡 62 00:02:52,879 --> 00:02:55,520 一个交易者获得更好的概率 63 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:57,199 但风险回报更低 64 00:02:57,199 --> 00:02:59,180 另一家机构的概率较低 65 00:02:59,180 --> 00:03:01,639 但风险回报较高 66 00:03:01,909 --> 00:03:03,270 如果管理得当 67 00:03:03,270 --> 00:03:05,509 两者都可以接受 68 00:03:06,889 --> 00:03:08,610 你应该买入还是卖出 69 00:03:08,610 --> 00:03:11,780 你可以选择对你更重要的变量 70 00:03:11,780 --> 00:03:14,879 有些交易者总是试图进行高概率交易 71 00:03:14,879 --> 00:03:16,620 因为他们喜欢赢很多 72 00:03:16,620 --> 00:03:19,800 然而这总是意味着较小的风险回报 73 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:21,520 一般来说风险越大 74 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:23,280 回报越小 75 00:03:23,949 --> 00:03:26,849 其他交易者则非常注重高回报 76 00:03:26,849 --> 00:03:28,879 他们喜欢大获全胜 77 00:03:28,879 --> 00:03:31,139 然而当他们这样做时 78 00:03:31,139 --> 00:03:34,280 总是伴随着较低的概率 79 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:42,199 交易者刚开始交易时 80 00:03:42,199 --> 00:03:43,360 他们非常努力的工作 81 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:44,960 以积攒足够的资金进行交易 82 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,080 他们考虑的一个变量远远超过其他变量 83 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:48,599 那就是风险 84 00:03:48,919 --> 00:03:50,240 他们不想赔钱 85 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:53,340 他们害怕一旦亏损就会失去账户 86 00:03:53,340 --> 00:03:55,039 失去梦想 87 00:03:55,810 --> 00:03:57,270 这将是他们梦想的死亡 88 00:03:57,270 --> 00:03:58,870 因此这相当于死亡 89 00:03:58,870 --> 00:04:00,819 当交易者开始交易时 90 00:04:00,819 --> 00:04:02,699 他们往往只关注风险 91 00:04:02,699 --> 00:04:04,680 而往往完全忽视概率 92 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:05,919 这是很不幸的 93 00:04:05,919 --> 00:04:07,740 因为如果你要交易盈利 94 00:04:07,740 --> 00:04:11,400 你需要关注所有三个变量啊 95 00:04:15,979 --> 00:04:19,139 初学者总是在寻找风险最低的交易 96 00:04:19,139 --> 00:04:20,839 结果却赔了钱 97 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:25,040 这是因为他们不明白低风险交易意味着低概率 98 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:28,639 这意味着你大部分时间都会亏损 99 00:04:28,930 --> 00:04:32,089 如果再加上因缺乏经验而管理不善 100 00:04:32,089 --> 00:04:33,730 你的损失会更大 101 00:04:33,730 --> 00:04:36,370 亏损的比例会更高 102 00:04:38,879 --> 00:04:40,939 不管你做的是风险回报高 103 00:04:40,939 --> 00:04:42,180 概率低的交易 104 00:04:42,180 --> 00:04:43,319 还是概率高 105 00:04:43,319 --> 00:04:45,040 风险回报低的交易 106 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:46,279 如果管理得当 107 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:50,040 两种交易方式都是合理的 108 00:04:51,939 --> 00:04:54,379 两者都有积极的交易方程式 109 00:04:54,379 --> 00:04:59,740 有些交易者并不太在意选择准确的顶部和底部 110 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:10,060 他们中的很多人会等待回调或突破 111 00:05:10,060 --> 00:05:13,360 因为这样赚钱的概率更高 112 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:21,079 他们会卖出突破或者卖出雄奇及突破后的回撤 113 00:05:24,939 --> 00:05:28,699 这些交易者的止损点离这里或这里都很远 114 00:05:28,699 --> 00:05:32,300 因为他们知道赚钱的概率很高 115 00:05:32,858 --> 00:05:35,678 更大的风险是他们为获得高盈利概率 116 00:05:35,678 --> 00:05:37,619 而付出的代价 117 00:05:41,939 --> 00:05:45,160 经验丰富的交易者有时会进行低风险 118 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:46,459 低概率的交易 119 00:05:46,459 --> 00:05:48,819 有时他们会进行概率较高 120 00:05:48,819 --> 00:05:50,360 风险较大的交易 121 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:51,579 无论哪种交易 122 00:05:51,579 --> 00:05:53,939 他们都觉得更有优势 123 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:57,180 例如如果交易者很快就要离开 124 00:05:57,180 --> 00:05:59,379 他们不能一整天都待在这里观察交易 125 00:05:59,379 --> 00:06:01,420 那么他们就需要高概率的交易 126 00:06:01,420 --> 00:06:02,720 他们需要快速获利 127 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:04,069 小幅获利 128 00:06:05,009 --> 00:06:06,970 小利润意味着小回报 129 00:06:06,970 --> 00:06:08,689 这是头皮交易 130 00:06:08,689 --> 00:06:09,689 这意味着 131 00:06:09,689 --> 00:06:11,129 如果他们要做这笔交易 132 00:06:11,129 --> 00:06:14,125 他们就会期望在很大程度上获胜 133 00:06:17,980 --> 00:06:22,060 很多交易者都会选择高概率的交易 134 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:32,420 提高风险回报比的最好方法就是波段交易 135 00:06:32,420 --> 00:06:33,980 追求非常大的回报 136 00:06:33,980 --> 00:06:36,220 例如卖出后继续做空 137 00:06:36,220 --> 00:06:40,279 直到市场反转或交易结束啊 138 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:48,040 比方说交易者在这一低点下方卖出 139 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:50,819 并在这1K线的高点上方使用非常严格的止损 140 00:06:50,819 --> 00:06:54,139 因此他们就在这根K线下方做空 141 00:06:54,139 --> 00:06:56,139 如果他是包头皮交易者 142 00:06:56,139 --> 00:06:59,019 他可能会以一倍的初始风险获利 143 00:06:59,019 --> 00:07:02,120 他的初始风险高于他进入的卖出信号 144 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:03,199 K线的高点 145 00:07:03,199 --> 00:07:05,540 这是他风险的一倍 146 00:07:06,959 --> 00:07:09,920 而波段交易者则会坚持交易 147 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:12,519 直到交易不再有效 148 00:07:13,689 --> 00:07:17,189 在这里三向下推动123形成抛物线楔形 149 00:07:17,189 --> 00:07:20,769 我们有一个在高位收盘的多头K线形图 150 00:07:20,769 --> 00:07:22,509 也许我们会有一个小反转 151 00:07:22,509 --> 00:07:24,810 这是一个合理的离场位置 152 00:07:24,810 --> 00:07:25,829 我们看一下 153 00:07:25,829 --> 00:07:29,170 在这里进场和在这里出场的回报大小 154 00:07:29,170 --> 00:07:30,810 风险在这里或这里 155 00:07:30,810 --> 00:07:33,139 因此风险回报率极高 156 00:07:33,139 --> 00:07:34,829 但概率较低 157 00:07:34,829 --> 00:07:37,670 它有40%的概率会波段下跌 158 00:07:37,670 --> 00:07:40,399 60%的概率不会波段下跌 159 00:07:40,399 --> 00:07:42,959 要么市场上涨并触及止损点 160 00:07:42,959 --> 00:07:46,199 要么就是横盘震荡啊 161 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:49,600 相对于风险而言 162 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:53,639 巨大的回报足以抵消巨大利润的低概率 163 00:07:53,639 --> 00:07:56,759 在这里卖出是合理的 164 00:07:59,920 --> 00:08:02,759 还有另一种改善交易者等式的方法 165 00:08:02,759 --> 00:08:04,720 那就是加码加仓 166 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:06,399 即使是亏损头寸 167 00:08:06,399 --> 00:08:08,850 初学者也不应该这样做 168 00:08:13,959 --> 00:08:17,100 扩大交易规模会增加赚钱的概率 169 00:08:17,100 --> 00:08:19,360 但你要付出的代价是风险 170 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:21,279 回报比更差 171 00:08:21,910 --> 00:08:23,209 你增加了风险 172 00:08:23,209 --> 00:08:24,790 通常也会减少回报 173 00:08:24,790 --> 00:08:27,029 例如我们有一个空头趋势 174 00:08:27,029 --> 00:08:28,689 我们有三个推D123 175 00:08:28,689 --> 00:08:30,370 这是一个抛物线楔形 176 00:08:30,370 --> 00:08:31,949 连续的迈出高潮 177 00:08:31,949 --> 00:08:33,269 还有一个多投篮 178 00:08:33,269 --> 00:08:36,139 连续的多投篮嗯 179 00:08:40,938 --> 00:08:43,058 这种卖出的可能性并不高 180 00:08:43,058 --> 00:08:46,219 不过向上反转可能只是轻微的 181 00:08:46,219 --> 00:08:48,769 很可能会向下回撤 182 00:08:48,889 --> 00:08:51,409 当你有一个非常紧密的空头通道时 183 00:08:51,409 --> 00:08:53,360 第一次反转上升是轻微的 184 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:55,980 你通常会向下测试空头再次卖出 185 00:08:55,980 --> 00:08:57,080 希望继续下跌 186 00:08:57,080 --> 00:09:00,690 但确信第一次反转上涨不会走太远 187 00:09:00,929 --> 00:09:02,450 他们可以卖出更多 188 00:09:02,450 --> 00:09:05,149 然后在最初的入场价位附近出局 189 00:09:05,149 --> 00:09:08,019 在第一次做空时实现收支平衡 190 00:09:08,019 --> 00:09:08,980 卖出更多 191 00:09:08,980 --> 00:09:10,279 也许会低于这里 192 00:09:10,279 --> 00:09:11,700 低点二或低点三 193 00:09:11,700 --> 00:09:12,379 低点一 194 00:09:12,379 --> 00:09:12,940 低点二 195 00:09:12,940 --> 00:09:15,700 也许这是低点二 196 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:19,679 这是低点三 197 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,120 它仍然低于卖出高潮的顶部 198 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:23,960 仍然低于空头的顶部 199 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,690 市场有可能会向下测试这一区域 200 00:09:26,690 --> 00:09:29,370 也许会在最近的空头顶部止损 201 00:09:29,370 --> 00:09:33,519 也许会在最近的空头顶部止损啊 202 00:09:34,899 --> 00:09:37,860 当市场回落到他最初的入场价位时 203 00:09:37,860 --> 00:09:39,000 他就会出局 204 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:41,059 在该价位的低点卖出 205 00:09:41,059 --> 00:09:43,639 他可能会在该价位的低点出局 206 00:09:43,639 --> 00:09:45,519 并承受微小的损失 207 00:09:45,519 --> 00:09:49,220 或者他会在该价位的低点以下出局 208 00:09:49,710 --> 00:09:52,090 在第一次入场时收支平衡 209 00:09:52,090 --> 00:09:54,750 在第二次入场时获利出局 210 00:09:54,750 --> 00:09:57,429 它通过加仓增加了赚钱的概率 211 00:09:57,429 --> 00:10:00,269 但同时也增加了风险 212 00:10:00,909 --> 00:10:03,429 他的风险不是从这里到这里 213 00:10:03,429 --> 00:10:05,169 而是从这里到那里 214 00:10:05,169 --> 00:10:07,070 因此他增加了风险 215 00:10:07,070 --> 00:10:09,985 以获得更高的赚钱概率 216 00:10:11,879 --> 00:10:16,200 同样只有经验丰富的交易者才应该做这种事 217 00:10:23,820 --> 00:10:25,340 我们有一个空头趋势 218 00:10:25,340 --> 00:10:26,360 一个多头突破 219 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:30,279 我们要看看这个我们有一个空头趋势 220 00:10:30,279 --> 00:10:32,279 一个多头突破一个更高的低点 221 00:10:32,279 --> 00:10:33,379 现在我们有一个双底 222 00:10:33,379 --> 00:10:34,139 如果你愿意 223 00:10:34,139 --> 00:10:35,600 可以称之为双底高低点 224 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:39,759 主要趋势反转也可以称之为双底牛起 225 00:10:39,759 --> 00:10:41,840 因此多头突破回调 226 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:44,869 然后现在可能是多头趋势中的双底 227 00:10:44,869 --> 00:10:45,908 无论如何 228 00:10:45,908 --> 00:10:47,788 我们有一个多头买入信号 229 00:10:47,788 --> 00:10:51,490 K线交易者会在买入信号K线上方买入 230 00:10:51,490 --> 00:10:54,230 其中一些人会在双底下方设止损 231 00:10:54,230 --> 00:10:55,389 风险非常小 232 00:10:55,389 --> 00:10:57,330 这立即告诉 233 00:10:59,860 --> 00:11:00,919 你可能性很低 234 00:11:00,919 --> 00:11:02,919 如果你买入很可能会亏损 235 00:11:02,919 --> 00:11:06,039 它很可能会跌破那根K线的低点 236 00:11:06,039 --> 00:11:07,220 只要风险小 237 00:11:07,220 --> 00:11:09,399 就有可能亏损 238 00:11:10,899 --> 00:11:12,519 在双底下方止损 239 00:11:12,519 --> 00:11:15,769 你是在一个狭窄的交易区间中间买入 240 00:11:15,769 --> 00:11:19,669 大多数试图突破狭窄交易区间的尝试都会失败 241 00:11:19,669 --> 00:11:22,889 无论是下行尝试还是上行尝试 242 00:11:26,860 --> 00:11:30,059 另一方面交易者可能更喜欢高概率交易 243 00:11:30,059 --> 00:11:33,220 在这里我们有一个非常大的多头突破K线 244 00:11:33,220 --> 00:11:36,789 而且是连续第二个大的多头突破K线 245 00:11:36,909 --> 00:11:38,690 在这样的强势突破后 246 00:11:38,690 --> 00:11:41,029 市场有60%的概率会反弹 247 00:11:41,029 --> 00:11:42,679 根据突破后的开盘价 248 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:45,080 到突破后最后一根K线的收盘价 249 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:47,740 至少会有一定幅度的上涨 250 00:11:47,899 --> 00:11:51,259 这里有60%的机会上涨概率很高 251 00:11:51,259 --> 00:11:53,019 但止损点仍在这里 252 00:11:53,019 --> 00:11:55,500 这个交易者把止损点放在这里 253 00:11:55,500 --> 00:11:57,620 那个买入收盘价的交易者 254 00:11:57,620 --> 00:12:00,539 他的止损点也在这里 255 00:12:01,919 --> 00:12:03,940 他赚钱的概率要高得多 256 00:12:03,940 --> 00:12:08,240 但风险也比最初买入的交易者大得多 257 00:12:13,019 --> 00:12:16,259 一个三角形三个向下推动 258 00:12:16,259 --> 00:12:18,328 1234和一个多头篮 259 00:12:18,328 --> 00:12:20,589 交易者仍然很有可能赚钱 260 00:12:20,589 --> 00:12:23,889 并在该多头K线上方买入 261 00:12:24,909 --> 00:12:27,309 这里的概率没有这里的概率高 262 00:12:27,309 --> 00:12:28,230 略低一些 263 00:12:28,230 --> 00:12:30,629 但仍有接近60%的概率 264 00:12:30,629 --> 00:12:33,879 会在该多头K线上方买入获利买入 265 00:12:33,879 --> 00:12:35,360 突破的概率非常高 266 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:40,159 买入回调的概率略高买入这里的回调啊 267 00:12:43,500 --> 00:12:45,279 买入这里的概率略低 268 00:12:45,279 --> 00:12:47,440 买入这里的概率再次降低 269 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:49,899 越往上概率越低 270 00:12:53,879 --> 00:12:56,799 我们有一个多头趋势和一个空头突破 271 00:12:56,799 --> 00:12:58,059 的狭小交易区间 272 00:12:58,059 --> 00:12:59,639 在狭窄的交易区间内 273 00:12:59,639 --> 00:13:01,679 我们有一个双顶较低的高点 274 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:04,360 和一个收于低点的空头K线 275 00:13:04,889 --> 00:13:06,629 这是一个合理的空投 276 00:13:06,629 --> 00:13:09,179 你在双顶更低的高点 277 00:13:09,179 --> 00:13:12,519 主要趋势反转的空头K线下方卖出 278 00:13:12,519 --> 00:13:15,179 止损在高点上方风险非常小 279 00:13:15,179 --> 00:13:16,259 这立即告诉你 280 00:13:16,259 --> 00:13:18,980 你可能会亏损60%的情况下 281 00:13:18,980 --> 00:13:19,740 你会亏钱 282 00:13:19,740 --> 00:13:21,139 40%的情况下 283 00:13:21,139 --> 00:13:22,340 你会有一个波段 284 00:13:22,340 --> 00:13:23,600 但波段很大 285 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:25,980 足以抵消亏损 286 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:32,240 做低概率的空投是合理的 287 00:13:33,919 --> 00:13:36,580 其他交易者更喜欢高概率交易 288 00:13:36,580 --> 00:13:38,789 他们会等待空头突破 289 00:13:38,789 --> 00:13:41,110 我们有连续的大空头收盘价 290 00:13:41,110 --> 00:13:43,120 低于过去50个交易日的低点 291 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:46,059 从空头突破的开盘价到这根K线的收盘价 292 00:13:46,059 --> 00:13:49,679 我们将下跌至少一个测量移动的高概率 293 00:13:50,289 --> 00:13:55,370 我们将下跌一档60%的情况下 294 00:13:55,370 --> 00:13:56,480 我们会出现回调 295 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:57,899 因此不确定性增加 296 00:13:57,899 --> 00:13:59,980 但仍然是相当高的做空概率 297 00:13:59,980 --> 00:14:01,600 要么跌破这根K线 298 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:03,669 要么跌破那根K线 299 00:14:03,669 --> 00:14:07,009 同样不管是在这里做空还是在这里做空 300 00:14:07,009 --> 00:14:08,350 止损点都在这里 301 00:14:08,350 --> 00:14:10,190 因此与这个空投相比 302 00:14:10,190 --> 00:14:12,889 这些高概率空投的风险更大 303 00:14:12,889 --> 00:14:16,169 但赚钱的概率也更大 304 00:14:16,899 --> 00:14:19,599 多年来我见过很多交易者 305 00:14:19,599 --> 00:14:22,019 他们90%的时间都能赢 306 00:14:22,019 --> 00:14:23,099 不用问他们 307 00:14:23,099 --> 00:14:25,840 我就自动知道他们在剥头皮 308 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:27,960 如果你90%的时间都在赢 309 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:30,000 那么你的风险回报率一定很低 310 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,740 而这通常意味着利润很小 311 00:14:32,899 --> 00:14:34,720 换句话说你是在剥头皮 312 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:36,799 你无法获得高概率的空投 313 00:14:36,799 --> 00:14:38,919 你必须有一个好的风险回报比 314 00:14:38,919 --> 00:14:40,919 而这通常意味着非常小的利润 315 00:14:40,919 --> 00:14:42,899 换句话说你是在剥头皮 316 00:14:42,899 --> 00:14:45,179 换句话说你在剥头皮 317 00:14:45,179 --> 00:14:47,000 如果不放弃某些东西 318 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:50,950 就不可能获得90%的大概率变数 319 00:14:51,149 --> 00:14:52,629 通常是风险回报 320 00:14:52,629 --> 00:14:55,230 这意味着你总是要放弃风险回报 321 00:14:55,230 --> 00:14:56,210 通常情况下 322 00:14:56,210 --> 00:14:58,230 这意味着你要承担小风险 323 00:14:58,230 --> 00:14:59,818 获取小利润 324 00:14:59,818 --> 00:15:01,519 我赢的概率很高 325 00:15:01,519 --> 00:15:03,839 你的风险回报很高 326 00:15:03,839 --> 00:15:05,599 这意味着你输一点 327 00:15:05,599 --> 00:15:06,578 我赚一点 328 00:15:06,578 --> 00:15:09,479 但我成功的概率很高 329 00:15:10,879 --> 00:15:12,679 这些都是包头皮的例子 330 00:15:12,679 --> 00:15:13,759 你在这里买入 331 00:15:13,759 --> 00:15:14,759 然后卖出 332 00:15:14,759 --> 00:15:15,919 你有一个小牛企 333 00:15:15,919 --> 00:15:17,779 你在多头K线上方买入 334 00:15:17,779 --> 00:15:19,120 你赌反转下跌 335 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:22,460 你买入低点在反转上涨时买入 336 00:15:22,460 --> 00:15:23,639 如果你获利不多 337 00:15:23,639 --> 00:15:25,818 这些都是高概率交易 338 00:15:25,818 --> 00:15:27,479 如果你小幅获利 339 00:15:27,479 --> 00:15:29,278 这些都是高概率交易 340 00:15:29,278 --> 00:15:32,950 因此都是包头皮在这里卖出 341 00:15:32,950 --> 00:15:34,389 三次推升123 342 00:15:34,389 --> 00:15:35,629 小新型空头条 343 00:15:35,629 --> 00:15:37,759 可能会变成一个交易区间 344 00:15:37,759 --> 00:15:38,539 概率高 345 00:15:38,539 --> 00:15:39,360 风险小 346 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:42,679 然后这些都是包头皮嗯 347 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:47,179 卖出收盘价 348 00:15:47,179 --> 00:15:48,379 卖出收盘价 349 00:15:48,379 --> 00:15:49,399 卖出低点一 350 00:15:49,399 --> 00:15:50,299 卖出低点二 351 00:15:50,299 --> 00:15:51,200 卖出突破 352 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:52,620 卖出双顶雄起 353 00:15:52,620 --> 00:15:53,960 卖出下方突破 354 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:55,100 卖出收盘价 355 00:15:55,100 --> 00:15:56,220 卖出低点一 356 00:15:56,220 --> 00:16:00,419 一路向下做空大量包头皮成功概率高 357 00:16:00,419 --> 00:16:02,659 如果你拿的是小额回报的话 358 00:16:02,659 --> 00:16:03,580 换句话说 359 00:16:03,580 --> 00:16:07,159 如果你是风险和回报的包头皮者 360 00:16:13,879 --> 00:16:15,639 无论何时进行任何交易 361 00:16:15,639 --> 00:16:17,950 你都会自动知道风险和回报 362 00:16:17,950 --> 00:16:19,809 例如如果你要买入 363 00:16:19,809 --> 00:16:23,860 你应该在进场后立即自动设置止损 364 00:16:24,059 --> 00:16:26,200 以便在市场不利于拟时卖出 365 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:27,600 同时设置另一个订单 366 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:29,539 以便在合理的目标位置获利 367 00:16:29,539 --> 00:16:32,159 与获利订单之间的距离就是你的收益 368 00:16:32,159 --> 00:16:35,440 而与止损订单之间的距离就是风险 369 00:16:35,899 --> 00:16:39,080 你总是知道每笔交易的风险和收益 370 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:42,500 但是你并不总是知道概率 371 00:16:42,979 --> 00:16:45,458 事实上你永远不知道概率 372 00:16:45,458 --> 00:16:48,970 风险是具保护止损点的点数或点数 373 00:16:48,970 --> 00:16:50,629 收益就是你的获利 374 00:16:50,629 --> 00:16:54,460 现价单的点数或点数概率非常非常重要 375 00:16:54,460 --> 00:16:56,080 但他从来都不明确 376 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:59,740 大多数交易者都忽略了他嗯 377 00:17:01,799 --> 00:17:02,860 这太糟糕了 378 00:17:02,860 --> 00:17:04,680 因为如果您想构建有利可图的交易 379 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:06,279 就必须关注他 380 00:17:07,900 --> 00:17:09,400 在反转下跌中 381 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:12,380 一对强势空头K线在低点收盘 382 00:17:12,380 --> 00:17:14,160 您可以在收盘时卖出 383 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,000 这是一种高概率空投 384 00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:18,839 你的止损点要么在卖出高潮之上 385 00:17:18,839 --> 00:17:20,799 要么在空头顶部之上 386 00:17:20,799 --> 00:17:24,440 这样你就知道自己的风险有多大 387 00:17:25,940 --> 00:17:27,680 在高概率交易中 388 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:31,119 你知道你至少能获得与风险相当的回报 389 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:33,420 你在收盘时卖出 390 00:17:34,930 --> 00:17:36,650 在这里或这里止损 391 00:17:36,650 --> 00:17:38,609 在这里衡量下跌走势 392 00:17:38,609 --> 00:17:40,150 在这里获取回报 393 00:17:40,150 --> 00:17:43,480 这是一个至少获取部分利润的合理位置 394 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:46,160 高概率交易回报只等于风险 395 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:49,519 所以你的风险回报率是以风险 396 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:57,000 回报率很低 397 00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:58,559 但数学上没问题 398 00:17:58,559 --> 00:18:01,319 因为赚钱的概率很高 399 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:10,859 强势多头突破我总是向左看 400 00:18:10,859 --> 00:18:13,579 我要确保市场高于前期高点 401 00:18:13,579 --> 00:18:15,099 可能是多头趋势 402 00:18:15,099 --> 00:18:17,380 如果出现强势反转下跌 403 00:18:17,380 --> 00:18:19,500 我也会看向左侧 404 00:18:20,970 --> 00:18:25,279 大买入高潮可能会跌破该低点 405 00:18:25,279 --> 00:18:26,779 但仍处于多头趋势中 406 00:18:26,779 --> 00:18:28,460 如果跌破多头趋势的底部 407 00:18:28,460 --> 00:18:30,630 就不再是多头趋势 408 00:18:30,910 --> 00:18:32,789 他要么处于交易区间 409 00:18:32,789 --> 00:18:34,490 要么处于空头趋势 410 00:18:34,490 --> 00:18:36,869 每当出现这样的强势突破时 411 00:18:36,869 --> 00:18:38,880 你就很有可能赚钱 412 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:42,599 但你还不知道它是交易区间中的多头K线 413 00:18:42,599 --> 00:18:45,200 还是多头趋势中的多头K线 414 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:47,279 后续表现不佳 415 00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:49,339 可能会出现深度回撤 416 00:18:49,339 --> 00:18:52,599 但只要回撤保持在多头趋势底部之上 417 00:18:52,599 --> 00:18:54,759 就仍有可能是多头趋势 418 00:18:54,759 --> 00:18:56,000 这么大的反转 419 00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:58,960 大涨大跌会造成很大的混乱 420 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:02,250 嗯现在市场可能处于一个交易区间 421 00:19:02,250 --> 00:19:04,690 但是只要它保持在这个低点之上 422 00:19:04,690 --> 00:19:06,740 就不是空头趋势 423 00:19:06,940 --> 00:19:08,680 要么处于交易区间 424 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:11,220 要么处于多头趋势 425 00:19:12,940 --> 00:19:14,440 强势反转下跌 426 00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:15,279 强势跟进 427 00:19:15,279 --> 00:19:16,099 此时此刻 428 00:19:16,099 --> 00:19:18,769 市场始终处于空头趋势 429 00:19:18,769 --> 00:19:21,130 然而他仍在这一低点之上 430 00:19:21,130 --> 00:19:23,730 这可能只是多头趋势中的深度回调 431 00:19:23,730 --> 00:19:27,049 也可能是交易区间中的空头阶段 432 00:19:28,779 --> 00:19:30,920 有些空投投资者会在收盘时卖出 433 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:32,859 一般来说我不会这样做 434 00:19:32,859 --> 00:19:35,140 因为他仍在买入高潮的低点附近 435 00:19:35,140 --> 00:19:36,759 而且仍在这个低点之上 436 00:19:36,759 --> 00:19:39,700 因此即使我们有连续的空头K线形图 437 00:19:39,700 --> 00:19:41,900 卖出的可能性也不高 438 00:19:42,859 --> 00:19:45,539 看左边我们可能仍处于交易区间 439 00:19:45,539 --> 00:19:47,500 也可能处于宽阔的多头通道 440 00:19:47,500 --> 00:19:47,779 中 441 00:19:47,779 --> 00:19:48,640 低点更高 442 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:50,700 高点可能更高 443 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:54,839 他总是处于空头之中 444 00:19:54,839 --> 00:19:59,359 但除非你强势跌破这个买入高潮的底部 445 00:20:00,900 --> 00:20:02,940 否则他可能只是一个空头陷阱 446 00:20:02,940 --> 00:20:07,099 诱使交易者在多头通道或交易区间内低价抛售 447 00:20:07,909 --> 00:20:09,779 从这张图上看不出来 448 00:20:09,779 --> 00:20:13,259 但这个低点实际上略低于买入高潮的底部 449 00:20:13,259 --> 00:20:14,359 这很常见 450 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:17,359 如果出现买入高潮和反转下跌 451 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:21,200 市场通常会试图至少跌破买入高潮的底部 452 00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,319 一点点嗯 453 00:20:24,500 --> 00:20:28,079 然后决定是与买入高潮形成双底并继续上涨 454 00:20:28,079 --> 00:20:29,500 还是跌破买入高潮 455 00:20:29,500 --> 00:20:33,299 并根据买入高潮的高度进行有节制的下跌 456 00:20:34,980 --> 00:20:36,059 对于多头来说 457 00:20:36,059 --> 00:20:37,740 这仍然是一个多头趋势 458 00:20:37,740 --> 00:20:40,940 而且是一个带有买入高潮低点的双重底 459 00:20:41,099 --> 00:20:43,400 这也是一个较高的低点 460 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:44,799 它高于这个低点 461 00:20:44,799 --> 00:20:47,140 也高于那个低点 462 00:20:48,900 --> 00:20:51,420 然而每当我在多头趋势中看到 463 00:20:51,420 --> 00:20:53,180 下跌如此之远的反转时 464 00:20:53,180 --> 00:20:56,730 它很可能不会是一个强劲的多头趋势 465 00:20:56,730 --> 00:20:59,170 更有可能是大涨大跌 466 00:20:59,170 --> 00:21:00,750 大混乱而混乱 467 00:21:00,750 --> 00:21:03,289 通常意味着交易区间 468 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:11,160 多头将买入反转上涨 469 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:12,220 低买高卖 470 00:21:12,220 --> 00:21:13,789 快速获利 471 00:21:13,789 --> 00:21:16,009 在这个低点买入是合理的 472 00:21:16,009 --> 00:21:17,349 这个低点是双底 473 00:21:17,349 --> 00:21:19,569 而且还在多头趋势的底部之上 474 00:21:19,569 --> 00:21:21,269 所以还是一个较高的低点 475 00:21:21,269 --> 00:21:23,470 可能是一个多头通道 476 00:21:23,930 --> 00:21:25,250 更有可能的是 477 00:21:25,250 --> 00:21:27,849 你买入的低点将成为交易区间 478 00:21:27,849 --> 00:21:30,170 多头趋势和回调 479 00:21:37,940 --> 00:21:41,019 只要回调保持在买入高潮的50% 480 00:21:41,019 --> 00:21:42,019 回调位之上 481 00:21:42,019 --> 00:21:44,519 这种概率倾向于更高的价格 482 00:21:44,519 --> 00:21:45,920 但风险也更大 483 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:49,859 因为你的止损点在这里或向下啊 484 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:52,700 如果市场跌破终点 485 00:21:52,700 --> 00:21:54,140 多投的概率较小 486 00:21:54,140 --> 00:21:55,579 但风险也较小 487 00:21:55,579 --> 00:21:57,700 因为你离止损点更近 488 00:21:57,700 --> 00:22:00,240 因此在这里向下买入 489 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,579 出现多头趋势的概率较小 490 00:22:02,579 --> 00:22:03,920 但风险也较小 491 00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:05,420 在这里向上买入 492 00:22:05,420 --> 00:22:07,019 你赚钱的概率很高 493 00:22:07,019 --> 00:22:08,220 好于五十五十 494 00:22:08,220 --> 00:22:09,380 但风险很高 495 00:22:09,380 --> 00:22:11,460 回报可能也不高 496 00:22:14,859 --> 00:22:16,119 我们的反弹乏力 497 00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:18,460 我们可能不会涨得太高 498 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:20,480 在这里向上买入 499 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:22,099 在这里向下止损 500 00:22:22,099 --> 00:22:23,779 在这里向下止损 501 00:22:23,779 --> 00:22:24,660 收益不大 502 00:22:24,660 --> 00:22:26,200 风险收益比很差 503 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:27,769 但概率很高 504 00:22:27,769 --> 00:22:30,019 因此交易者在这里买入 505 00:22:30,019 --> 00:22:31,039 在这里止损 506 00:22:31,039 --> 00:22:32,940 在这里止损概率很低 507 00:22:32,940 --> 00:22:35,380 所以交易者在这里买入概率大 508 00:22:35,380 --> 00:22:37,819 但风险回报率低 509 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:41,519 一旦跌破终点 510 00:22:41,519 --> 00:22:43,839 市场仍处于多头趋势的 511 00:22:43,839 --> 00:22:47,509 概率就会下降到50%左右 512 00:22:47,869 --> 00:22:48,970 但风险较小 513 00:22:48,970 --> 00:22:50,789 所以如果你在这里买入 514 00:22:50,789 --> 00:22:52,650 你就离止损点更近了 515 00:22:52,650 --> 00:22:55,549 在这里或这里你会得到更好的风险回报 516 00:22:55,549 --> 00:22:57,349 但概率较低 517 00:22:57,869 --> 00:23:00,230 如果你在底部1/3处买入 518 00:23:00,230 --> 00:23:03,829 那么市场仍处于多头趋势中的概率较小 519 00:23:03,829 --> 00:23:07,309 也许只有40%的概率会创出新高 520 00:23:07,309 --> 00:23:08,690 但风险也更小 521 00:23:08,690 --> 00:23:10,549 因为止损点就在这里 522 00:23:10,549 --> 00:23:11,750 无论你在这里 523 00:23:11,750 --> 00:23:13,410 这里还是这里买入 524 00:23:13,410 --> 00:23:16,210 止损点都在这里 525 00:23:16,890 --> 00:23:18,029 随着市场下跌 526 00:23:18,029 --> 00:23:19,849 你离止损点越来越近 527 00:23:19,849 --> 00:23:21,549 如果你在这里入市 528 00:23:21,549 --> 00:23:23,170 如果你在这里买入 529 00:23:23,170 --> 00:23:24,809 你的风险就会降低 530 00:23:24,809 --> 00:23:26,210 你的风险较小 531 00:23:26,210 --> 00:23:28,750 但在经历了这么大的反转下跌 532 00:23:28,750 --> 00:23:30,910 回撤了所有的多头趋势后 533 00:23:30,910 --> 00:23:33,940 市场创出新高的 534 00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:40,579 可能性较小 535 00:23:40,579 --> 00:23:42,960 这是空头最重要的价位 536 00:23:44,039 --> 00:23:46,240 这是多头趋势的底部 537 00:23:46,930 --> 00:23:48,930 空投希望跌破这个低点 538 00:23:48,930 --> 00:23:50,740 因为如果跌破这个低点 539 00:23:50,740 --> 00:23:52,819 市场就不再是多头趋势 540 00:23:52,819 --> 00:23:54,660 市场要么处于交易区间 541 00:23:54,660 --> 00:23:56,769 要么处于空头趋势 542 00:23:56,769 --> 00:23:58,569 只要保持在这一低点之上 543 00:23:58,569 --> 00:24:00,130 市场要么处于多头趋势 544 00:24:00,130 --> 00:24:02,170 要么处于交易区间 545 00:24:11,019 --> 00:24:14,909 当抛售跌至买入高潮的底部时 546 00:24:14,909 --> 00:24:18,868 你不知道这是否只是对买入高潮底部的测试 547 00:24:18,868 --> 00:24:19,969 正如我所说 548 00:24:19,969 --> 00:24:22,829 当买入高潮后出现反转下跌时 549 00:24:22,829 --> 00:24:26,470 市场通常至少会跌破买入高潮的底部 550 00:24:27,460 --> 00:24:31,109 然后你就不知道是否有大量的资金在这里买入 551 00:24:31,109 --> 00:24:33,930 以寻求趋势的恢复性上涨 552 00:24:36,019 --> 00:24:38,660 市场是会形成一个更高的低点 553 00:24:38,660 --> 00:24:41,779 进入一个宽阔的多头通道 554 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:45,420 还是这是一个真正的反转 555 00:24:45,420 --> 00:24:47,079 会跌破多头趋势的底部 556 00:24:47,079 --> 00:24:49,079 成为空头趋势 557 00:24:49,970 --> 00:24:51,630 强势反转上涨 558 00:24:51,630 --> 00:24:53,289 连续五个多头K线 559 00:24:53,289 --> 00:24:55,140 八个K线没有空头体 560 00:24:55,140 --> 00:24:57,140 我们又回到了多头趋势中 561 00:24:57,140 --> 00:24:59,909 因此空头趋势不太可能出现 562 00:24:59,909 --> 00:25:02,068 现在我们可能要么处于多头趋势 563 00:25:02,068 --> 00:25:04,108 要么处于交易区间 564 00:25:09,940 --> 00:25:12,039 每当我看到强势突破时 565 00:25:12,039 --> 00:25:13,579 我总是向左看 566 00:25:13,579 --> 00:25:15,720 突破是在所有K线之上 567 00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,650 还是只在部分K线之上 568 00:25:18,849 --> 00:25:20,690 如果仍然低于这个高点 569 00:25:20,690 --> 00:25:22,779 那么这次反弹可能只是宽阔 570 00:25:22,779 --> 00:25:24,500 空头通道中的第二段上涨 571 00:25:24,500 --> 00:25:25,359 第一段回撤 572 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:29,099 第二段上涨或交易区间中的第二段上涨 573 00:25:29,909 --> 00:25:32,388 即使市场始终处于多头趋势中 574 00:25:32,388 --> 00:25:34,249 也许在收盘时也是如此 575 00:25:34,249 --> 00:25:36,720 但这并不意味着多头趋势 576 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:38,880 他可能只是空头通道中的一条多头K线 577 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,359 或交易区间中的一条多头K线 578 00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:44,960 突破跟进 579 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:46,940 你可以称之为头肩底 580 00:25:46,940 --> 00:25:48,279 左肩头部 581 00:25:48,279 --> 00:25:49,970 右肩空头趋势 582 00:25:49,970 --> 00:25:51,190 高点或低点 583 00:25:51,190 --> 00:25:52,569 主要趋势反转 584 00:25:52,569 --> 00:25:54,929 突破并跟进至颈线上方 585 00:25:54,929 --> 00:25:57,068 我们始终处于多头趋势中 586 00:25:57,068 --> 00:25:59,808 我们可能会向上进行有节制的波动 587 00:25:59,808 --> 00:26:00,509 事实上 588 00:26:00,509 --> 00:26:02,730 这可能是多头趋势的开始 589 00:26:02,730 --> 00:26:05,910 但除非他能突破最近较低高点的顶部 590 00:26:05,910 --> 00:26:09,259 否则他仍处于空头趋势中 591 00:26:09,660 --> 00:26:13,079 这可能只是宽阔空头通道中的一条多头K线 592 00:26:13,079 --> 00:26:15,740 或者是交易区间中的一条多头K线 593 00:26:15,740 --> 00:26:17,619 交易者会在收盘时买入 594 00:26:17,619 --> 00:26:18,460 因为他们相信 595 00:26:18,460 --> 00:26:22,420 我们很有可能至少会上涨到足以获利的程度 596 00:26:22,930 --> 00:26:25,609 然而除非我们突破这个高点 597 00:26:25,609 --> 00:26:28,680 否则这次反弹只是一个双顶低点 598 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:30,599 或者可以称其为一个低点 599 00:26:30,599 --> 00:26:33,039 可能是一个宽阔的空头通道 600 00:26:33,039 --> 00:26:36,720 交易者将寻求卖出反转下跌 601 00:26:38,819 --> 00:26:40,680 两条腿向上一个回撤两个 602 00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:42,900 两条腿向上一个回撤两个 603 00:26:42,900 --> 00:26:45,079 这可能是第二只脚的陷阱 604 00:26:45,079 --> 00:26:47,720 让交易者误以为这是多头趋势 605 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:49,119 但如果你看左边 606 00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,960 我们还没有突破最近的主要低点 607 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:56,920 因此嗯这可能只是一个陷阱 608 00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,500 又使交易者在空头通道或交易区间内买的太高 609 00:26:59,500 --> 00:27:01,460 你可以卖出下面的反转 610 00:27:01,939 --> 00:27:04,398 或者更有可能迈出这里的反转 611 00:27:04,398 --> 00:27:06,919 双顶雄起强多头波段 612 00:27:06,919 --> 00:27:10,099 但仍有可能从这一强势下跌中回撤 613 00:27:10,099 --> 00:27:12,059 除非我们突破那个高点 614 00:27:12,059 --> 00:27:14,000 一个主要的较低高点 615 00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:16,559 否则无论这次反弹多么强劲 616 00:27:16,559 --> 00:27:18,339 它仍然 617 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,000 可能只是抛售后的回调 618 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,200 这里有50%的回调 619 00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:40,200 只要市场保持在50%的回调以下 620 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,140 保持在50%的回调以下 621 00:27:43,140 --> 00:27:45,839 那么我们走低的概率至少是50% 622 00:27:45,839 --> 00:27:47,880 低于50%的回调概率 623 00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:49,640 有利于空投 624 00:27:52,980 --> 00:27:55,680 在此卖出的空投风险更大 625 00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:56,700 概率更高 626 00:27:56,700 --> 00:27:59,099 风险也更大 627 00:28:04,900 --> 00:28:07,000 多头需要突破这个较低的高点 628 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:10,099 否则我们可能仍处于空头趋势中 629 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,220 同样如果突破了较低的高点 630 00:28:17,220 --> 00:28:18,799 就不再是空头趋势 631 00:28:18,799 --> 00:28:22,119 因为空头趋势需要较低的高点 632 00:28:29,900 --> 00:28:31,180 对空头来说 633 00:28:31,180 --> 00:28:32,859 这里的风险很大 634 00:28:32,859 --> 00:28:34,700 他们的止损点在这里 635 00:28:34,700 --> 00:28:37,019 而且概率很高 636 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:40,480 如果你在这里卖出 637 00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:41,039 回报 638 00:28:41,039 --> 00:28:44,440 可能只是根据这个交易区间的高度向下移动 639 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,240 我们有一个双顶雄起 640 00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:49,809 风险大于距离这个高点的距离啊 641 00:28:49,904 --> 00:28:52,029 如果你在这里向下迈出 642 00:28:52,029 --> 00:28:55,109 那么它的下跌幅度就会大于测量的下跌幅度 643 00:28:55,109 --> 00:28:56,990 因此回报就会小于风险 644 00:28:56,990 --> 00:28:58,960 因此风险回报比很低 645 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,119 但如果空头在此处向下抛售 646 00:29:01,119 --> 00:29:02,700 并在此处向上止损 647 00:29:02,700 --> 00:29:04,960 则赚钱的概率很高 648 00:29:05,900 --> 00:29:09,019 如果你开始在50%的回撤上方卖出 649 00:29:09,019 --> 00:29:10,519 风险会越来越小 650 00:29:10,519 --> 00:29:12,279 因为止损点越来越近 651 00:29:12,279 --> 00:29:13,880 概率也会越来越小 652 00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:14,960 空投的概率 653 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,539 如果你在空投的前1/3卖出 654 00:29:17,539 --> 00:29:22,000 我们突破保护性止损点的概率会更大 655 00:29:25,319 --> 00:29:27,960 这是一个交易区间 656 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:30,480 而非空头趋势的概率会更大 657 00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,720 多头突破该高点的概率为60% 658 00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:37,690 空头创出新低的概率仅为40% 659 00:29:37,930 --> 00:29:39,839 但空投的风险更小 660 00:29:39,839 --> 00:29:42,039 因为他们离止损点很近 661 00:29:42,039 --> 00:29:43,359 而回报更大 662 00:29:43,359 --> 00:29:45,099 因为离止损点很远 663 00:29:45,099 --> 00:29:48,950 在这里卖出的空头风险回报率要高得多 664 00:29:48,950 --> 00:29:52,950 但在这里赚钱的概率要小得多啊 665 00:29:53,630 --> 00:29:55,930 在空头趋势的下半部分 666 00:29:55,930 --> 00:29:58,220 空投的风险回报率更低 667 00:29:58,220 --> 00:29:59,400 但概率更高 668 00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:00,819 概率对空头有利 669 00:30:00,819 --> 00:30:03,400 60%的概率会创出新低 670 00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:06,579 市场越往上概率越小 671 00:30:13,740 --> 00:30:15,819 空投的风险回报率越高 672 00:30:15,819 --> 00:30:17,779 在上半部分风险更小 673 00:30:17,779 --> 00:30:18,940 回报更大 674 00:30:18,940 --> 00:30:20,339 风险回报明显 675 00:30:20,339 --> 00:30:23,388 有利于空投创出新低的概率较小 676 00:30:23,388 --> 00:30:25,088 但相对于风险而言 677 00:30:25,088 --> 00:30:28,180 回报却非常大啊 678 00:30:36,420 --> 00:30:39,039 当你有一个像这样的强劲反弹 679 00:30:39,039 --> 00:30:42,299 但它低于空头趋势的顶部时 680 00:30:43,980 --> 00:30:46,319 你不知道有多少美元在等待卖出 681 00:30:46,319 --> 00:30:47,140 有多少美元 682 00:30:47,140 --> 00:30:49,380 认为这只是一个阻力位的双真空测试 683 00:30:49,380 --> 00:30:51,019 这仅仅是第二只脚的陷阱 684 00:30:51,019 --> 00:30:53,240 第一只脚的回撤回撤吗 685 00:30:53,910 --> 00:30:56,309 这是否仅仅是第二只脚的陷阱 686 00:30:56,309 --> 00:30:57,349 第一只脚回撤 687 00:30:57,349 --> 00:30:58,160 第二只脚 688 00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:01,200 很多空头投资者希望在上1/3处卖出 689 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:02,839 在看到反转下跌之前 690 00:31:02,839 --> 00:31:04,759 你是不知道的 691 00:31:04,759 --> 00:31:06,700 概率有利于多头 692 00:31:06,700 --> 00:31:09,160 但空投的风险回报更高 693 00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,880 总有空投愿意卖出 694 00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:16,119 一旦你看到反转下跌 695 00:31:16,119 --> 00:31:18,339 空投的概率就会越来越大 696 00:31:18,339 --> 00:31:20,319 但如果你在这里卖出 697 00:31:20,319 --> 00:31:22,589 风险就会更大 698 00:31:24,039 --> 00:31:26,259 在这段视频中 699 00:31:26,259 --> 00:31:28,539 我谈到了风险回报和概率 700 00:31:28,539 --> 00:31:31,009 并试图强调概率的重要性 701 00:31:31,009 --> 00:31:33,890 交易者不能简单地考虑风险回报率 702 00:31:33,890 --> 00:31:35,769 如果赚钱的概率很小 703 00:31:35,769 --> 00:31:39,809 那么再大的风险回报率也毫无意义 704 00:31:44,779 --> 00:31:46,019 我是艾尔布鲁克斯 705 00:31:46,019 --> 00:31:47,819 感谢您收看布鲁克斯交易课程 706 00:31:47,819 --> 00:31:50,500 这是关于交易者方程和概率的 707 00:31:50,500 --> 00:31:52,619 五个视频中的第二个
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