美股 美光财报后我更加看涨了：市场还没看懂这份财报释放最强的信号！#mu

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美股AI量化分析工具

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大家好

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我们是美股投资网

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用大数据驱动你的交易决策

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周三盘后

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美光发布了一份可以说是炸裂的财报

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股价盘后一度狂飙18%

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但很多人不知道的是

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就在财报发布前

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美光周二原本还大跌超过13%

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当时整个市场情绪非常紧绷

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尤其是韩国存储相关消息扰动之后

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投资者最担心的不是财报好不好

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而是就算财报好

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股价会不会也来一波卖事实

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毕竟美光基尼的涨幅已经非常的惊人

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高位筹码一旦松动

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市场只需要一个借口

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就可能触发大幅获利了结

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期权市场也把这种焦虑放大到了极致

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财报前

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美光隐含波动率飙升到116

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创下2024年12月以来财报期最高水平

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最值得注意的是

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1050~1070

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行权价附近的平值看跌期权

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单日暴涨大约180%

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这说明什么

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说明市场一边看好美光

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一边又在疯狂买保险

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防止财报不及预期之后

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股价继续下杀

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但正是在市场情绪最混乱

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分歧最激烈的时候

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我们美股投资网通过持续追踪三组独立数据

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得出了一个与市场普遍情绪截然不同的判断

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首先机构主力资金流向揭示了真实情况

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根据美股大数据显示

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6月23日当天

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机构通过大单渠道

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卖出约60亿美元的美光股票

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但与此同时

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暗指市场却出现了约12亿美元的买入资金

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这组信号传递出的信息非常明确

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部分机构确实在高位进行了获利了结

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对于如此庞大的资金体量而言

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在股价大幅上涨后

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适当锁定收益

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控制风险本身就是正常且理性的资金管理行为

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尤其是对那些早期建仓成本较低

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已经获得丰厚回报的机构来说

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兑现部分利润并不意外

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然而更值得关注的是

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另一面

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暗渠市场中依然存在大规模资金持续吸筹

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这意味着在部分资金获利离场的同时

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仍有大量聪明钱选择逆势布局

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悄悄增加仓位

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这种明面减仓

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暗中吸筹的局面

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往往是机构在财报发布前进行仓位调整

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和风险再平衡的典型特征

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而并非市场所担忧的基本面恶化信号

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相反

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它反映出机构资金对于公司长期价值

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仍然保持较高信心

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直接在不同账户和交易渠道之间

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进行策略性调整

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第2DURAM价格仍在创新高

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根据我们每天追踪的产业链最新数据

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截至本次财报发布前

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DURAM价格继续创出新高

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td forth研报显示

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包括DDR two

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DDR three等世代的consumer drum颗粒合约价

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延续了2026年第一季的上涨动能

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预估DDR two

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第二季度

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合约价涨幅将高达约55%

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到60%

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更有机构预测

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2026年第二季度

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drum的合约价格

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环比增长58%至63%

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所谓的内存价格崩盘与真实数据完全不符

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第3AI正在彻底改变存储芯片的供需逻辑

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市场过去认为

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只要手机和PC需求不好

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DM和nine的价格就会下跌

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但这个逻辑正在被AI时代彻底改变

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HBM大量消耗DARM产能

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生产1bit h bm需要消耗3bit

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常规DM的晶圆面积

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三大存储原厂的HBM产能

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截至2026年第一季度均已处于售空状态

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即使2026年

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全球手机和PC出货量仍然疲软

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普通DOM供应依然紧张

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因此美光未来几个季度的高利润率

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并不完全依赖HBM业务

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传统DM涨价

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同样为其业绩提供了强大的支撑和安全边际

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这些信息我们在财报前就已经

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分享在了我们内部

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VIP社群

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早在年初2026年必买股播出的时候

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美光价格只有284美元

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到现在已经翻了整整4.3倍

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而在今年2月初

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美光股价到达386美元时

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我们也再次提醒VIP社群加仓

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如果你也跟着美股投资网

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在美光这波行情里吃到的肉

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别忘了帮我们点个赞

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也欢迎把频道转发给身边对美股感兴趣的朋友

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在市场最恐慌

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散户最容易被情绪带着走的时候

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真正有价值的不是跟着信息追涨杀跌

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而是提前看到数据背后的方向

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市场永远会有噪音

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财报前有人恐慌

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财报后有人追高

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但真正能穿越波动的是对资金流向的持续追踪

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是对产业底层逻辑的清醒判断

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我们美股投资网正是凭借大数据资金流向

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产业链价格变化以及AI存储周期的深度研究

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才能在分歧中锚定方向

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在恐慌中守住定力

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经得起时间检验的判断

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才是你在迷茫时刻真正需要的分析

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现在我们来说美光这份炸裂财报里

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很多人真正忽视的重点

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表面上看

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美光盘后大涨

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是因为营收利润和指引全面超预期

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但如果只把它理解成一份好财报

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其实远远不够

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这份财报真正告诉市场的是

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美光早已经不是传统意义上的内存周期股

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它正在变成AI时代的关键基础设施供应商

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第一个被市场忽视的重点是

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这次不是只有HBM在爆发

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而是整个数据中心内存需求都在加速

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大家看数据

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美光数据中心收入在过去几个季度

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不是普通增长

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而是直接跳上了一个新台阶

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到2026财年第三季度

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云端内存业务收入137.7亿美元

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核心数据中心业务115.2亿美元

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两项加起来252.9亿美元

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这说明了什么

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说明镁光这次墙是整条线在拉AI数据中心

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对内存的需求正在全面井喷

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很多人呢一提到美光就只盯着HBM

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但从财报分布来看

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云端移动客户端

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汽车嵌入式

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所有业务的毛利率都处在非常高的水平

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部分甚至接近或超过80%

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这也验证了我们之前在VIP社群里的判断

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美光未来的高利润并不完全依赖HBM

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传统d ram和难得的涨价

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同样提供了很强的支撑

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真正的信号是DARM和net紧缺

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已经从AI服务器外移到了手机

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Pc

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汽车嵌入式等多个领域

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而且美工自己也讲得清楚

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从LP5到LP6DDR5到DDDR6

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再到更新一代HBM都会伴随beat成本上升

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还有数据显示

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2026年

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数据中心dram和NT的beat出货量

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预计会比两年前翻一倍以上

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这说明这一轮不是某一个产品短期涨价

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而是需求端在爆发

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供给端成本也在抬升

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整个内存行业还在被AI定价

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第二个重点是HBM4已经不是未来故事

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而是正在进入限时订单

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美工表示

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HBM4基于先进DURAM制程

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已经面向主要客户平台进入高量出货

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而且向多个终端客户送出认证样品

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HBM4E也计划在后续量产

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这意味着美光在下一代AI加速器平台里

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已经不是边缘供应商

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而是在核心客户平台中提前卡位

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过去市场讲HBM更多会想到SK海力士

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但现在美工的份额提升

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平均售价提升以及毛利率弹性

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都需要被市场重新评估

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如果你觉得本视频对你有帮助

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老规矩

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先点赞再收藏

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关键时刻能帮忙

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美国热线6263783637

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第三个重点

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难的和SSD正在成为被低估的第二增长曲线

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AI模型训练中的中间结果推理时调用的资料库

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用户日志向量

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数据库背后都需要大量高速大容量存储

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美工的高性能PCIEG6SSD已经高量生产

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超大容量QLCSSD也开始出货

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这不再是传统的消费级难的

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而是直接切入AI数据中心的存储层市场

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大多盯着HBM

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但真正懂AI基因的人都知道

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算力内存网络存储是一起扩张的

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NT这一块已经成为镁光下一个业绩弹性来源

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第四个重点是现金流质量明显改善

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美光这次不仅收入和利润强

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经营现金流和自营现金流也非常亮眼

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公司给出的下一季指引也继续强劲

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预计第四财季营收达到500亿美元

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调整后每股收益约30亿美元

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毛利率维持在86%左右

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00:08:59,509 --> 00:09:02,789
同时资本开支也给出了一个非常重要的信号

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00:09:02,789 --> 00:09:06,120
第四财季资本支出预计约100亿美元

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00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:07,679
整个2026财年

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00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:10,159
资本支出将达到270亿美元

223
00:09:10,159 --> 00:09:12,279
而2027年的季度

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00:09:12,279 --> 00:09:15,159
资本支出还会高于第四采取水平

225
00:09:15,159 --> 00:09:16,259
这说明什么

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00:09:16,259 --> 00:09:19,279
说明美光不是只看一两个季度的涨价

227
00:09:19,279 --> 00:09:23,649
而是在提前建设满足长期需求的洁净式产能

228
00:09:23,649 --> 00:09:26,330
管理层自己也在用真金白银告诉市场

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00:09:26,330 --> 00:09:28,909
这一轮AI存储需求不是短周期

230
00:09:28,909 --> 00:09:30,269
而是长周期

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00:09:30,269 --> 00:09:31,389
更关键的是

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镁光CEO直接说

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00:09:32,889 --> 00:09:34,210
客户已经意识到

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内存和存储的供应短缺

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00:09:35,950 --> 00:09:37,828
需要相当长时间才能改善

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00:09:37,828 --> 00:09:41,469
即使行业供给可能在2028年逐步改善

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00:09:41,469 --> 00:09:43,349
公司目前也看不到内存供应

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00:09:43,349 --> 00:09:46,200
什么时候能追上不断增长的需求

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这句话非常重要

240
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因为它等于告诉市场

241
00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:52,059
这轮不是普通周期里的短缺

242
00:09:52,059 --> 00:09:53,649
而是结构性短缺

243
00:09:53,649 --> 00:09:58,039
因为过去镁光最大的问题是典型周期股特征

244
00:09:58,039 --> 00:10:00,019
上行期大举扩产

245
00:10:00,019 --> 00:10:01,440
下行期价格崩

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00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:02,139
利润崩

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00:10:02,139 --> 00:10:03,700
现金流也跟着崩

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但这次不一样

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00:10:04,919 --> 00:10:07,059
美光推出的战略客户协议

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也就是SSCA正在改变它的商业模式

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00:10:10,570 --> 00:10:13,649
SCA的核心可以简单理解为大客户

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00:10:13,649 --> 00:10:16,440
提前锁定未来几年产能和价格区间

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00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:18,990
类似照付补益的长期协议

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00:10:18,990 --> 00:10:20,210
根据公开信息

255
00:10:20,210 --> 00:10:23,230
美光已经部署16份战略客户协议

256
00:10:23,230 --> 00:10:26,740
其中14份协议按照最低合同价格计算

257
00:10:26,740 --> 00:10:30,580
在剩余期限内可带来约1000亿美元累计收入

258
00:10:30,580 --> 00:10:33,559
这些协议覆盖约20%的DM出货量

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00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:36,139
以及约1/3的难的出货量

260
00:10:36,139 --> 00:10:37,200
这意味着什么

261
00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:39,419
意味着美光未来一部分收入

262
00:10:39,419 --> 00:10:42,460
不再完全跟着现货价格大起大落

263
00:10:42,460 --> 00:10:44,679
而是被长期客户需求所住

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00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:46,080
对投资者来说

265
00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:48,259
这会提高业绩可见度

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00:10:48,259 --> 00:10:49,960
也会让市场重新思考

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00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:52,990
美光到底应该按传统周期股估值

268
00:10:52,990 --> 00:10:56,330
还是按AI基建核心供应商重新估值

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00:10:56,330 --> 00:10:58,210
当然风险也要直接说

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00:10:58,210 --> 00:11:00,750
美光过去一年涨幅已经非常夸张

271
00:11:00,750 --> 00:11:02,809
财报后盘后又大涨

272
00:11:02,809 --> 00:11:05,669
当前估值和交易拥挤度都处于高位

273
00:11:05,669 --> 00:11:09,919
现在市场已经承认美光是AI存储赛道核心资产

274
00:11:09,919 --> 00:11:11,559
后面真正要验证的是

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00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:14,360
SSCA是否持续到2028年以后

276
00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:17,200
价格条款能否持续保护毛利率

277
00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:20,490
HBM4和HBM4E两率是否稳定

278
00:11:20,490 --> 00:11:22,129
客户集中度会不会过高

279
00:11:22,129 --> 00:11:24,750
以及如果未来AI资本开始放缓

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00:11:24,750 --> 00:11:28,490
非sea部分会不会重新回到周期价格

281
00:11:28,490 --> 00:11:30,149
所以我的结论很明确

282
00:11:30,149 --> 00:11:33,700
这份财报释放的是非常强烈的看涨信号

283
00:11:33,700 --> 00:11:37,000
但市场最可能低估的并不是单季EPS超预期

284
00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:39,179
而是美光商业模式的变化

285
00:11:39,179 --> 00:11:42,639
他正在从一家靠内存价格周期吃饭的公司

286
00:11:42,639 --> 00:11:45,879
变成一家被AI大客户长期锁定产能的

287
00:11:45,879 --> 00:11:47,899
关键基础设施供应商

288
00:11:47,899 --> 00:11:50,960
短线追涨要小心估值和交易拥久度

289
00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:53,899
但中线看美观的核心观察点已经变了

290
00:11:53,899 --> 00:11:57,360
过去我们看他是看他下一季DM价格涨多少

291
00:11:57,360 --> 00:12:00,580
现在我们要看的是有多少收入被SCA所住

292
00:12:00,580 --> 00:12:02,870
HBM4份额能不能继续提高

293
00:12:02,870 --> 00:12:05,870
难得和SSD能不能成为第二增长曲线

294
00:12:05,870 --> 00:12:09,139
这才是这份财报真正炸裂的地方

295
00:12:09,139 --> 00:12:10,779
今天的分享就到这里

296
00:12:10,779 --> 00:12:11,899
其实像这种分析

297
00:12:11,899 --> 00:12:14,109
我们VIP社群每天都会更新

298
00:12:14,109 --> 00:12:15,908
不管是机构资金流向

299
00:12:15,908 --> 00:12:16,908
产业趋势变化

300
00:12:16,908 --> 00:12:19,539
还是财报背后的真正逻辑

301
00:12:19,539 --> 00:12:21,059
我们都会持续追踪

302
00:12:21,059 --> 00:12:24,320
帮大家在市场噪音里更早看懂机会

303
00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:27,149
如果你也想抓住像美光这种

304
00:12:27,149 --> 00:12:29,288
从底部一路翻好几倍的行情

305
00:12:29,288 --> 00:12:30,370
欢迎加入我们

306
00:12:30,370 --> 00:12:32,370
临走前别忘了帮我们点个赞

307
00:12:32,370 --> 00:12:33,690
打开小铃铛通知

308
00:12:33,690 --> 00:12:36,929
并把频道分享给身边对美股感兴趣的朋友

309
00:12:36,929 --> 00:12:39,190
你的每一次点赞转发和互动

310
00:12:39,190 --> 00:12:40,490
都是我们美股投资网

311
00:12:40,490 --> 00:12:43,200
持续输出高质量美股内容的最大动力

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