美股从未如此分裂。【2026-06-25】

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Hello

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大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是sunny

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标普指数今天下跌0.73点

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跌幅万分之一

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日线图四个连续阴线

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说明大盘整体处于调整的弱势当中

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上涨的个股家数超过了一半

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下跌的个股家数不到一半

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但贡献大

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所以标普是平盘报收

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实际上啊冰火两重天

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跌幅0.4%

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六指数探底60日均线后反弹

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形成了一段下影线

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60日线对纳指的支撑是屠杀一个积极信号

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纳指或许可以在60日线上止跌

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进入震荡区间

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美光科技财报后

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存储板块继续大涨

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因此存储股的投资者formal情绪高涨

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美光的财报公布了四倍的营收增长

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收入和利润都是大超预期

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还通过与客户签订16项长期供货协议

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锁定未来三到5年的保底价格和保底订单

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美国用长期协议打破内存周期性

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在周期衰退时

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它还能卖个好价钱

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现在是内存和硬盘供不应求

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手机电脑和数据中心

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想要存储硬件就需要抢货源

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通过这一局面

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几大存储公司要求嘿

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你们现在需要货

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那要来签长期协议以后

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存储降价了

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你们也得照高价买

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下游公司硬着头皮也得签

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不然马上就没有办法生产他们的手机呀

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电脑也组不了服务器

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于是市场认为存储打破了周期股魔咒

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未来几年都会躺着发财

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闪迪涨得比镁光还厉害

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高位还能一天涨20%

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美国涨了14%

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隔夜的韩国股市重新继续大涨

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但是和存储的火爆相比

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另外一半左右的个股和板块

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则是陷入了恐惧当中

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下跌的主要板块主要集中在原来的七巨头

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以苹果为代表的消费电子

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以微软为代表的软件

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以亚马逊为龙头的互联网零售

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以meta谷歌为首的互联网板块等啊

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连英伟达也见顶下跌

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以至于半导体大板块大幅跑输了存储子板块

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这几年做视频内容以来

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从我嘴里讲过的牛股不计其数

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但是真正能落到口袋的却非常少

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知易行难

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真是个炒股人面临的挑战啊

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但我也有一个感性的认识

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就是当一个题材非常火爆

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人人formal时

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它可能还将保持上涨态势

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原因是美股投资者体量巨大

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源源不断

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你不能说路边擦皮鞋的也炒股

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那就是股市见顶信号

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因为纽约擦皮鞋的炒股确实让人觉得风险

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但世界上还有更多擦皮鞋的还没开始炒股呢

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现在这个互联网时代

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不能拿1929年那个擦皮鞋的故事

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作为股市见顶信号了

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韩国人人杠杆从单一市场上看是一个风险信号

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但从全球范围来看

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还有大面积的人没有上杠杆

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甚至没有满仓钱嘛

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是管够

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所以现在的formal不是立即见顶信号

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但是当股价直线上涨时

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前面买的人也是急着要短炒一波变现的

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这样获利盘卖出的压力就来了

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过去几年我们经历过不计其数的热门股

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后来他们要么长期调整

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也不怎么赚钱了

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要么跌回起点

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随便举几个例子

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看看是不是这样的

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2020年的特斯拉

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2023年以后的英伟达

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2025年的黄金白银

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比特币

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热闹的时候

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人人formal120000美元的比特币

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喊40万的

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1000的特斯拉

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喊6000的上了当了糕点

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买进去套好长时间

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那目前股市的情况就是

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买这些热点赚钱效率比较高

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买入后很快就盈利

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买别的股票啊

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尤其是软件简直是受罪

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大盘涨软件不涨

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大盘不涨

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软件必下跌

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硬件涨

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软件跌

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硬件跌的时候

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软件暂时不跌好

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如果我说应该回避热门的存储股

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去抄底那些被市场唾弃的明星股

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那在短期内大概率是错误的

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既然都集中在存储上面追高

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那众人拾柴火焰高

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强势趋势应该还是可以延续的

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药房的是热点

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过去以后

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会和以前那些市场聚光灯下的明星一样的结果

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要么长期横盘

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要么上窜下跳

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反正赚钱就是这么一波

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下一波又要换题材了

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今天宏观数据出了几个

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一个是核心PCEE

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美国5月核心PC物价指数

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同比上涨3.4%

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环比上升0.3%

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符合预期

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PCE整体指数同比上涨4.1%

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为两年来最高水平

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核心通胀3.4%

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是离2%的目标更远了

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这可能会引起通胀回升的担忧

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以及美联储加息预期的升温

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但这一次的通胀与伊朗战争有关

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能源价格加速上涨

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导致了5月份整体通胀的上涨

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从而渗透到核心通胀领域

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但是随着霍尔木兹海峡的逐渐通航

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油价大跌

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未来的数据还是有可能回落的

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今天还有一个GDP数据

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国内生产总值第一季度经季节性调整后

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GDP是2.1%

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比前一个季度增长了0.5个百分点

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另外还有一个申请失业金数据

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美国最新初请失业金人数为21.5万人

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略低于预期的22.5万人

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显示出劳动力市场依然保持一定的韧性

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这些数据总体显示美国经济不错

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不存在降息刺激经济的必要

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但却有加息控制通胀的需要

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如果美联储选择不实际加息

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也可以通过嘴炮的方式恐吓一下市场

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讲偷诈预期也可以自己冷却下来

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今天七巨头是没有一个能打的浓眉大眼的

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有人问苹果手机不是要涨价吗

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产品涨价怎么股价暴跌了

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苹果公司将入门级MACBOOK

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NEO的价格从599美元

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提高到699美元

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而Macbook air的价格则从1099美元

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上涨到1299美元

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IPAD也要涨

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但没有说手机要涨

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产品涨价不是因为抢着买而涨价

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而是成本提高了

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那边儿存储股大涨特涨

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因为内存涨价成本没涨

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钱大把的赚

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这边儿呢做电脑

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平板和手机的供应链采购的成本涨了

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涨了还不是一时的啊

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还要被迫签长期协议以后

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内存降价了

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还得按高价来卖

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苹果的成本提高要转嫁给消费者

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不然不是做的亏本生意吗

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但是产品涨价需求就会减少

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这个和价格的需求弹性有关

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有的东西涨价销量不会变

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比如台积电产能全部被预定一空

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7NM以下业务涨价销量不会减少

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价格的需求弹性为零

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所以涨价可以提高营业收入和利润

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对公司和股票利好

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但是苹果就不一样了

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苹果并不是需求弹性为零的产品啊

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涨价多了

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我舍不得换机器呀

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拖个半年再买呗

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需求总的就减少了

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市场担心在当前消费环境增长放缓的背景下

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大幅涨价会削弱苹果产品的市场竞争力

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并引发对消费硬件需求缩水的担忧

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还有一点就是苹果兜不住一个内存

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涨价的成本只能向下传导

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这种成本传导机制被市场解读为

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利润率面临压力的信号

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今天微软更是吓人

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都跌到了352

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跌破战争底

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3月伊朗战争

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全市场恐慌

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微软跌到了355.5亿后

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就随大盘反弹

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但是到了6月份

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微软从月初跌到月底

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就没有一天是不跌的

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我是手上有微软

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天天就是来股市给微软交钱

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每天准时扣款啊

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最奇葩的是5月份

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因为和英伟达合作了一个AIPC涨了两天

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形成了一个头肩底

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头肩底的微软

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放在以前百分之百是确定的底儿了吧

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哎这次偏不是

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目前微软在技术形态上岌岌可危

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一季度微软是七巨头里边跌最多的

224
00:09:29,009 --> 00:09:30,029
6月份

225
00:09:30,029 --> 00:09:34,359
微软创下2000年泡沫破灭以来最差单月表现

226
00:09:34,359 --> 00:09:36,298
月线一根长阴线

227
00:09:36,298 --> 00:09:37,909
史上罕见

228
00:09:38,230 --> 00:09:39,769
从周线图上看

229
00:09:39,769 --> 00:09:43,700
微软6月大跌后直接考验白色净现

230
00:09:43,700 --> 00:09:46,600
这条线上有关税占低点

231
00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:48,159
有战争低点

232
00:09:48,159 --> 00:09:51,250
分别是341和355

233
00:09:51,250 --> 00:09:54,509
要是连关税大占底都给破了

234
00:09:54,509 --> 00:09:58,240
那就会在周线图上形成大型头肩顶

235
00:09:58,240 --> 00:09:59,919
去年关税战以后

236
00:09:59,919 --> 00:10:03,220
标普指数从4835点开始上涨

237
00:10:03,220 --> 00:10:05,799
现在是7357点

238
00:10:05,799 --> 00:10:07,730
涨幅52%

239
00:10:07,730 --> 00:10:10,029
微软的340亿美元

240
00:10:10,029 --> 00:10:13,589
对应的是标普的4835点

241
00:10:13,589 --> 00:10:16,749
如今大盘已经有52%的涨幅了

242
00:10:16,749 --> 00:10:21,009
微软几乎回到标普4835点的位置上

243
00:10:21,009 --> 00:10:23,289
美股巨头分成两部分

244
00:10:23,289 --> 00:10:25,970
一部分是出钱建数据中心的

245
00:10:25,970 --> 00:10:29,190
另一部分是收钱提供硬件的

246
00:10:29,190 --> 00:10:32,149
出钱多了不一定能赚回来

247
00:10:32,149 --> 00:10:34,399
资本支出是重大利空

248
00:10:34,399 --> 00:10:35,740
收钱的

249
00:10:35,740 --> 00:10:39,960
反正AI淘金热卖铲子的必然赚钱

250
00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:42,200
因此资本支出越高

251
00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:44,379
硬件越是重大利好

252
00:10:44,379 --> 00:10:45,600
那微软

253
00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:46,200
谷歌

254
00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:49,559
亚马逊等巨头不投钱不行吗

255
00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:51,068
还真不行

256
00:10:51,068 --> 00:10:52,568
不投钱的话

257
00:10:52,568 --> 00:10:54,089
暂时可能没事儿

258
00:10:54,089 --> 00:10:55,908
未来就要掉队了

259
00:10:55,908 --> 00:10:57,568
从理性上讲

260
00:10:57,568 --> 00:10:58,828
微软应该是跌了

261
00:10:58,828 --> 00:11:00,450
可以抄底的股票

262
00:11:00,450 --> 00:11:02,129
从感性上讲

263
00:11:02,129 --> 00:11:04,210
6月份的下跌令人害怕

264
00:11:04,210 --> 00:11:07,769
如果周线图破位跌破341

265
00:11:07,769 --> 00:11:10,009
那更是灭顶之灾

266
00:11:18,730 --> 00:11:21,389
formal存储股热点转移

267
00:11:21,389 --> 00:11:24,570
另外一个SPACEX上市

268
00:11:24,570 --> 00:11:27,210
及另外两只人工智能即将上市

269
00:11:27,210 --> 00:11:30,600
加上海力士ADR也要来啊

270
00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:34,220
1万亿美元以上的巨头家数越来越多了

271
00:11:34,220 --> 00:11:36,799
七巨头变成十几个巨头

272
00:11:36,799 --> 00:11:37,799
这样一来

273
00:11:37,799 --> 00:11:41,700
被动基金是不是要卖出一些去配置新来的

274
00:11:41,700 --> 00:11:44,740
这就对原来的巨头产生了卖出压力

275
00:11:44,740 --> 00:11:46,639
有一个观众的问题是

276
00:11:46,639 --> 00:11:49,299
大跌前206买的NVIDIA

277
00:11:49,299 --> 00:11:50,440
现在跌爆了

278
00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:54,429
还有舅妈英伟达七巨头之首

279
00:11:54,429 --> 00:11:56,940
所以刚才说的理由也适用

280
00:11:56,940 --> 00:11:58,740
英伟达不算跌爆了

281
00:11:58,740 --> 00:12:00,419
只是技术上调整

282
00:12:00,419 --> 00:12:02,039
大趋势还是震荡

283
00:12:02,039 --> 00:12:03,220
比起微软

284
00:12:03,220 --> 00:12:05,828
英伟达看起来安全多了

285
00:12:05,828 --> 00:12:08,679
说到海力士要来美股上市AD r

286
00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:12,700
昨天观众有一个问题是ADR算增发吗

287
00:12:12,700 --> 00:12:15,309
那不是稀释的原股份吗

288
00:12:15,309 --> 00:12:18,330
好发行ADR有不增发的

289
00:12:18,330 --> 00:12:19,710
也有增发的

290
00:12:19,710 --> 00:12:22,110
无奈的是钱多得很的

291
00:12:22,110 --> 00:12:23,690
海力士来美国上市

292
00:12:23,690 --> 00:12:25,110
搞的是新股发行

293
00:12:25,110 --> 00:12:28,120
ADR要筹集294亿美元

294
00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:30,529
是要从美股圈钱的

295
00:12:30,529 --> 00:12:31,970
既然是增发

296
00:12:31,970 --> 00:12:34,029
原股份就会被稀释

297
00:12:34,029 --> 00:12:36,470
今天我的IBKR公开账户

298
00:12:36,470 --> 00:12:38,500
剩下了个19.3万

299
00:12:38,500 --> 00:12:39,059
七

300
00:12:39,059 --> 00:12:40,600
巨头大跌的四个

301
00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:42,039
特斯拉没有暴跌

302
00:12:42,039 --> 00:12:44,509
真是感谢不杀之恩啊

303
00:12:44,509 --> 00:12:49,590
大盘微弱累软的冬天来临之前还没囤积点利润

304
00:12:49,590 --> 00:12:52,129
真的是颇有点担心啊

305
00:12:52,129 --> 00:12:54,470
好那今天的节目就分享到这里

306
00:12:54,470 --> 00:12:55,389
感谢大家收看

307
00:12:55,389 --> 00:12:56,710
我们下期节目再见

308
00:12:56,710 --> 00:12:57,519
拜拜

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