【视野环球财经】20260708美股 “聪明钱”准备不加码AI投资！XLK、XLB、XLY点位提醒！COST同店增长大幅放缓！SOXX不破位了？

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大家好

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欢迎回到视野

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环球财经

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我是right now

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现在是美东时间26年7月9号周四的凌晨

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那么在休假期间呢

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咱们节目录制的时间仍旧是在每冬的凌晨

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发布的时间是定时发布

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在第二天盘前

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也就是每同时间的早上的六点

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还有美西凌晨的三点

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以及北京时间的18点

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明天的7月10号周五的盘前啊

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还是同样有节目好

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那咱们呢就说一下今天的主题

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咱们前两天啊都说的是这个节目短点短点啊

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短着短着呢就越说越长啊

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这个有点搂不住

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今天是真的要短一点啊

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因为今天的内容确实是不多

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市场的变化呢也是让人觉得哎

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确实是有点无聊啊

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今天的这个行情呢是又翻过来了

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四大指数呢仅纳指是小幅收涨

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那么昨天表现最好的道指啊

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标普呢昨天是涨多跌少

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今天的成份股标普这边有112只上涨

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但是下跌的个股数量却达到了391只

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另外呢在整个的板块方面

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标普11个板块只有两个上涨

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有九个下跌

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是一个非常明显的普跌的行情

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那么今天科技板块表现比较好的大盘子啊

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是呃这个博通还有英伟达

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那么博通这边呢

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他是和苹果签署了一项

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价值超过300亿美元的协议

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为苹果开发和供应芯片

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所以呢今天看上去在消息的刺激下啊

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今天是放量涨了4.83啊

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这个位置呢测了一下啊

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看起来呢目前还是在关键位置

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有利好消息释放出来啊

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这个时间节点也挺有意思

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另外还有一个大盘子是英伟达啊

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它在半导体里边领涨的情况

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最近比较的少

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那么今天呢也是放量上涨了3.65%啊

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这个时间节点也是挺奇妙的

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那么今天呢是中国

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有消息说啊

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中国计划允许一些最大的人工智能公司

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购买少量的英伟达H200的芯片

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那么这些公司包括像阿里巴巴字节跳动

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还有deep sick啊

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但是呢不知道量有多少啊

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只是说少量购买

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可能整个的这个象征意义啊

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要大于实际意义呃

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目前的英伟达整个的状况

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咱们之前也讲过关于中国销售的这种预期呃

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现在英伟达所有的业绩前瞻里边

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都不包含中国的销售啊

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所以中国的销售这边如果有

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那是锦上添花啊

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如果没有呢

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现在的业绩啊

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基于当前增速也是不慢的

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呃对于英伟达这支股票呢

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从长线来看呢

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呃我的看法一直都没有变过啊

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我还是觉得呢

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它主要是受制于盘子太大的影响啊

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因为基数越大

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未来的增长的潜在的增长空间

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随着时间的推移

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会变得越来的越难啊

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没办法啊

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所有的公司当进入成熟和呃这个稳定之后

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他的状况都差不多

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公司在越小的时候增长肯定是越快的

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相对来讲

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所以呢英伟达从长线看呢

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这个价格仍旧是一个不错的好价格啊

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即便未来的AI整体的资本的支出的增速放缓啊

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即便是放缓

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那么英伟达在其中仍旧能够分得一杯羹

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无非是他自己的增速快于慢的问题

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无非是前瞻PE的倍数高与低的问题

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从当前的价格来看呢

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即便以低倍来去取一个参考值

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当前财年中位204

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市价204

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那么仍旧不是一个高价格

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所以这个地方咱们这个长线的位置

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标注了很久啊

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所以有信心的朋友呢

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想这个未来呢有一个大概率的确定的事情呢

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那你就可以考虑啊

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如果大家觉得它太慢了啊

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太过于的这个老卖了

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那就算了啊

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那你就找一些这个长得快的

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当然啦涨得快的我们是两头诶

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你都得考虑

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你不能只考虑它涨得快

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同样的当涨得快

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如果你不及时止盈

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那么回撤起来

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回吐起来也是比较的快好

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另外呢今天其他的消息啊

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中东方面的消息给大家过一下

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今天整个的盘中啊

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实际上交易时段

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很多的消息都是伴随着中东局势的

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这个消息传出来

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也是上下打摆子呃

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最主要的几个消息是美国呢是在昨天啊

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就是袭击了伊朗南部的目标

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那么德黑兰呢是随即对海湾地区的美国

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军事设施也发动了报复性的袭击啊

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晚些时候呢总统川普表示说

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他认为停火协议已经失效啊

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所以这个进一步加剧了地缘政治的风险情绪

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不过呢可能随着时间的进展越来越接近9月份

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也就是大选前的两个星期啊

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两个月呃

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或许呢会有一些其他的更加冷静的

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双方的一些表述啊

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但是呃咱们这个时间呢关于中东的问题

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等会我其实我也会谈到关于一些聪明前的考量

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关于中东包括地缘政治的风险在全球的蔓延

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随着11月份大选的中期的选举的结束啊

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后续呢有可能会战火重燃啊

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很有可能会再一次陷入这种混乱之中啊

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因为有一些资金

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他们其实现在正在布局

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或者说正在考虑这件事情

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好这个呢是对于额目前的这个消息面

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中东

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另外呢在半导体方面啊

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给大家还是简单的看一下

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关于半导体的这个状况呃

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半导体这边呢因为韩国的这个综合指数啊

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它和半导体的关联度

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在过去一段时间是比较紧密的啊

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尽管我对于韩国的综合指数没有什么研究呃

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主要是看它的价格走势啊

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给大家简单的说一下呃

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外国投资者呢

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整个啊是因为其实在过去的一段时间

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差不多两个月吧

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也在一直在抛售股票

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那么它的这个跌幅就导致从最高点

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然后昨天跌下来的低点呢

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整个是差不多回调了22%

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那么按照华尔街的技术标准

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这个就已经进入了技术性的熊市啊

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叫技术性熊市

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高点回撤10%叫修正

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高点回撤20%叫技术性熊市啊

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这只是一个名词儿啊

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熊市的意思不是说只跌不涨啊

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熊市里面也有反弹对吧

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牛市里边也有下跌呃

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为什么会出现啊

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突然间涨这么多

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然后又开始大幅回撤的状况呢

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富达国际投资组合经理表示说啊

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这种波动性的加剧

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很大程度上是由基本面的不确定性驱动的

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他说我们看到人工智能驱动下

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各种半导体产品的需求确实非常巨大

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那么但是呢

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这是实际上由少数几家大型科技公司控制的

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约高额的1万亿左右的资本支出推动的呃

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他补充说呢

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如果这种芯片支出模式被证明不可持续

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那么就会带来下行风险

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其实呢现在整体上半导体

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大家炒的还是一个这个业绩预期信心啊

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就是这个高业绩预期到底能不能满足

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信心一动摇呢

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那么价格打折扣

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那么信心一上移呢

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那么即便再高啊

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也有人去追啊

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其实现在处于这么一个变化

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这个局势当中

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也就是咱们经常在过去的一段时间谈到的

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26年的下半年啊

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到四季度是一个AI货币化的一个验证过程啊

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因为支出大头来自于那四大科技公司

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他们能赚钱就能继续的投入

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他们不赚钱

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那这个市场呢相对来讲他们肯定要收缩

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要把增速放缓啊

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再次强调不是衰退

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是增速放缓啊

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增长仍旧会支出

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但是可能不会那么大手笔

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会有一些防御性的动作

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好额那么还有一件事呢

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给大家也看一下

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为什么韩国的半导体其实跌的比较的狠啊

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整个市场

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那么过去两个月的时间

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其实外国投资者是继续在抛售韩国的股票啊

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包括在昨天是延续了此前的抛售势头

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今年全年

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那么全球的基金

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外资啊已经抛售了超过1000亿美元的韩国股票

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也就是呢韩国投资者呢在不断地加杠杆

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拉储蓄

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借信贷往里边砸钱

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这些钱呢把市场推上去了

217
00:09:22,950 --> 00:09:25,909
那么全球的基金看到涨了很多

218
00:09:25,909 --> 00:09:28,950
落袋为安了1000亿啊

219
00:09:28,950 --> 00:09:32,149
那么这1000亿呢都是韩国的投资者的钱啊

220
00:09:32,149 --> 00:09:35,328
很多大部分吧我们说大部分都是他们的钱啊

221
00:09:35,328 --> 00:09:41,539
好这个呢就是整个的半导体方面的一些状况

222
00:09:41,539 --> 00:09:44,019
那么既然讲到了半导体啊

223
00:09:44,019 --> 00:09:48,019
等会我也会再把SOOXX的位置给大家谈一下

224
00:09:48,019 --> 00:09:49,899
咱们顺着半导体这个话题

225
00:09:49,899 --> 00:09:54,539
就说一下刚才谈到的关于聪明钱的问题呃

226
00:09:54,539 --> 00:09:57,379
还是对照着图表来看

227
00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:02,960
呃瑞银呢是发布了2026年的

228
00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:06,120
全球的家族办公室的报告

229
00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:09,240
那么一共是调查了307家

230
00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:13,419
平均资产达到27亿美元的家族办公室

231
00:10:13,419 --> 00:10:18,279
那么这些家族办公室呢属于传统的比较保守的

232
00:10:18,279 --> 00:10:20,600
聪明资金的投资者类型

233
00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:23,620
也就是他们呢都不会追求特别高的

234
00:10:23,620 --> 00:10:25,320
绝对的阿尔法收益

235
00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:28,179
那么他们会寻求相对一个平衡的

236
00:10:28,179 --> 00:10:29,700
呃这么一个资产增长

237
00:10:29,700 --> 00:10:32,009
毕竟他的资金规模比较大了嘛

238
00:10:32,009 --> 00:10:34,769
所以呢相对来讲啊风格是偏保守的

239
00:10:34,769 --> 00:10:38,139
而且他们在市场中一般来讲比对冲基金

240
00:10:38,139 --> 00:10:39,580
比系统基金啊

241
00:10:39,580 --> 00:10:42,320
比很多的主动型基金都更早的

242
00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:45,250
对于一些投资的趋势做出改变

243
00:10:45,529 --> 00:10:47,730
那么在这份投资报告中呢

244
00:10:47,730 --> 00:10:53,190
有创纪录的60%的家族办公室的投资者

245
00:10:53,190 --> 00:10:56,029
计划改变资产配置啊

246
00:10:56,029 --> 00:11:00,629
就是在未来的12个月达到历史新高

247
00:11:00,629 --> 00:11:04,590
历史上呢最高是37%啊

248
00:11:04,590 --> 00:11:08,000
你就能看出来其实有很大的一个态度性的转变

249
00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:10,080
那么他们主要关注什么呢

250
00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:13,860
风险是他们最关注的问题

251
00:11:13,860 --> 00:11:15,179
关注什么风险

252
00:11:15,179 --> 00:11:21,159
关注准备为全球的重大的地缘政治冲突

253
00:11:21,159 --> 00:11:22,659
债务危机

254
00:11:22,659 --> 00:11:26,559
还有金融市场的危机做准备

255
00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:30,710
悲观情绪呢比以往的调查更为强烈呃

256
00:11:30,710 --> 00:11:32,309
还有一张图表呢没给大家看啊

257
00:11:32,309 --> 00:11:33,610
就是我现在讲的这个东西

258
00:11:33,610 --> 00:11:35,629
我现在讲的是后一张图表啊

259
00:11:35,629 --> 00:11:37,440
马上跟大家谈到呃

260
00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:41,139
他们这个时间呢是未来的12个月

261
00:11:41,139 --> 00:11:44,440
最长是5年啊

262
00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:46,019
短是12个月

263
00:11:46,019 --> 00:11:47,589
最长是5年

264
00:11:47,589 --> 00:11:49,269
现在给大家看到的这张图表呢

265
00:11:49,269 --> 00:11:50,928
是对于未来12个月的

266
00:11:50,928 --> 00:11:53,448
一个整个的资产的分配计划

267
00:11:53,448 --> 00:11:56,259
我们看第一行标红的部分

268
00:11:58,220 --> 00:12:00,679
关于人工智能

269
00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:05,620
目前呢65%的投资者已经持有

270
00:12:05,620 --> 00:12:07,149
人工智能相关资产

271
00:12:07,149 --> 00:12:09,429
但是未来的12个月

272
00:12:09,429 --> 00:12:12,409
只有7%的受访者

273
00:12:12,409 --> 00:12:16,240
计划增加对人工智能的投资呃

274
00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:17,840
由于家族办公室咱们刚才讲过

275
00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:19,659
他们的立场是比较保守的啊

276
00:12:19,659 --> 00:12:23,919
所以他们往往比其他很多的机构更早的去收紧

277
00:12:23,919 --> 00:12:24,809
这个投资

278
00:12:24,809 --> 00:12:27,289
大家就能看出来一个趋势对吧

279
00:12:27,289 --> 00:12:30,169
这些超级的这个神灯们

280
00:12:30,169 --> 00:12:31,889
他们正在啊

281
00:12:31,889 --> 00:12:35,840
有些东西呢可能觉得嗯想象力可能没那么好啦

282
00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:37,720
所以呢以前再加上仓位

283
00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:40,580
可能该投的在低位也做的够多了

284
00:12:40,580 --> 00:12:43,700
那么也不准备再去追逐啊

285
00:12:43,700 --> 00:12:44,500
我们听清楚啊

286
00:12:44,500 --> 00:12:46,049
是不追了啊

287
00:12:46,049 --> 00:12:47,549
不是说他们把不做了

288
00:12:47,549 --> 00:12:49,450
他们不是说撤资了没有撤啊

289
00:12:49,450 --> 00:12:50,990
只是说不追了啊

290
00:12:50,990 --> 00:12:53,210
高位啊这个高处不胜寒吧

291
00:12:53,210 --> 00:12:55,570
很多都觉得嗯再追下去呢

292
00:12:55,570 --> 00:12:57,389
可能把自个儿追翻车啊

293
00:12:57,389 --> 00:13:01,230
所以减少了对于整个人工智能的增长

294
00:13:01,230 --> 00:13:02,200
的投资比例

295
00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:06,240
那么相反呢对于一些基础设施的投资的策略上

296
00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:09,250
可能会有更多的一些侧重

297
00:13:09,250 --> 00:13:12,169
包括还有一些其他的更多的方向啊

298
00:13:12,169 --> 00:13:13,830
像什么基础设施啊

299
00:13:13,830 --> 00:13:15,929
像什么这个机器人啊

300
00:13:15,929 --> 00:13:17,289
这个这方面啊

301
00:13:17,289 --> 00:13:20,110
所以呢呃整个的人工智能我们也能看到

302
00:13:20,110 --> 00:13:21,149
市场上的资金呢

303
00:13:21,149 --> 00:13:22,289
其实大家都比较担心

304
00:13:22,289 --> 00:13:26,299
到底这个钱未来从哪转出来吧

305
00:13:26,299 --> 00:13:27,620
大家天天都在讨论嘛

306
00:13:27,620 --> 00:13:30,100
所以呢我看到这个报告拿出来

307
00:13:30,100 --> 00:13:34,000
也给大家讲一下好

308
00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:35,279
那说到这呢

309
00:13:35,279 --> 00:13:37,720
咱们就讲一讲关于soo xx啊

310
00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:38,960
再给大家说一下

311
00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:41,620
因为很多朋友呢还是不太理解啊

312
00:13:41,620 --> 00:13:45,200
说破位这个东西是怎么个看法

313
00:13:46,919 --> 00:13:48,519
额因为一破位之后呢

314
00:13:48,519 --> 00:13:49,080
一上涨

315
00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:51,080
大家就说那这个又回到554了

316
00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:52,279
是不是又不破位了

317
00:13:52,279 --> 00:13:53,100
不是这样的啊

318
00:13:53,100 --> 00:13:54,639
还再次给大家强调一遍

319
00:13:54,639 --> 00:13:55,820
破位的意思是

320
00:13:55,820 --> 00:13:59,339
跌破之后上方的支撑的支撑变压力

321
00:13:59,339 --> 00:14:02,178
反弹上去之前的获利盘之前

322
00:14:02,178 --> 00:14:04,818
由于被套了以后会增加抛压

323
00:14:04,818 --> 00:14:10,289
他们会转化成这个市场的这个空头力量部分哈

324
00:14:10,289 --> 00:14:15,889
所以呢看法是如果能回到582的上方

325
00:14:15,889 --> 00:14:19,090
暂时你只能说它止跌了啊

326
00:14:19,090 --> 00:14:21,059
或者叫跌幅放缓了

327
00:14:21,059 --> 00:14:23,940
但是离再次上行

328
00:14:23,940 --> 00:14:25,259
反转上行

329
00:14:25,259 --> 00:14:27,860
要让很多的朋友去追高

330
00:14:27,860 --> 00:14:30,679
还差着一步上行

331
00:14:30,679 --> 00:14:37,159
要突破621才能够真正的实现解放

332
00:14:37,159 --> 00:14:40,409
大家让这些被套的朋友呢安心拿住

333
00:14:40,409 --> 00:14:43,049
让这些追涨的朋友呢继续追涨

334
00:14:43,049 --> 00:14:46,629
所以能反转要看621

335
00:14:46,629 --> 00:14:47,190
那没办法

336
00:14:47,190 --> 00:14:48,350
有朋友说那反转了

337
00:14:48,350 --> 00:14:49,629
那他都已经买不到了

338
00:14:49,629 --> 00:14:50,159
怎么办

339
00:14:50,159 --> 00:14:50,940
没办法呀

340
00:14:50,940 --> 00:14:53,600
你的这个所谓的你想吃到每一个利润

341
00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:55,080
就要承担每一个风险呗

342
00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:55,440
对吧

343
00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:57,320
比如你现在你说我要去追啊

344
00:14:57,320 --> 00:14:59,559
你追追的可能性呢两种

345
00:14:59,559 --> 00:15:01,759
第一种你状态比较好对吧

346
00:15:01,759 --> 00:15:03,039
市场呢给你的机会比较好

347
00:15:03,039 --> 00:15:03,950
运气不错

348
00:15:03,950 --> 00:15:05,269
正好突破反转了

349
00:15:05,269 --> 00:15:06,950
你就能吃到最大值

350
00:15:06,950 --> 00:15:09,519
反过来就是你追啊

351
00:15:09,519 --> 00:15:12,039
追上去这个地方是天花板啊

352
00:15:12,039 --> 00:15:14,039
你追的把别人的筹码换出来

353
00:15:14,039 --> 00:15:15,259
他高位解套了

354
00:15:15,259 --> 00:15:17,059
你呢换过去站了岗

355
00:15:17,059 --> 00:15:19,539
那么他一掉头回来

356
00:15:19,539 --> 00:15:22,600
你就被套在最高点啊

357
00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:24,559
相对高点就等着未来再去解套

358
00:15:24,559 --> 00:15:25,799
无非就是这么个区别

359
00:15:25,799 --> 00:15:28,250
所以呢你自己就想啊思考思考

360
00:15:28,250 --> 00:15:30,669
你更倾向于追逐利润

361
00:15:30,669 --> 00:15:34,210
还是你更倾向于啊做一些更加确定的事情

362
00:15:34,210 --> 00:15:38,499
然后呢去这个把风险也考虑在内呃

363
00:15:38,499 --> 00:15:42,259
成熟投资者的基本要求呢是追逐风险

364
00:15:42,259 --> 00:15:44,820
同时也要防止利润啊

365
00:15:44,820 --> 00:15:47,279
防止啊追逐这个叫做机会

366
00:15:47,279 --> 00:15:51,259
同时呢你要防止风险的扩大嗯不谈风险

367
00:15:51,259 --> 00:15:53,019
只谈收益的情况呢

368
00:15:53,019 --> 00:15:57,059
那这个情况我们基本上就没有什么可探讨的啊

369
00:15:57,059 --> 00:16:01,210
因为很多事情呢有两头好

370
00:16:01,210 --> 00:16:03,090
这个是关于SOXS啊

371
00:16:03,090 --> 00:16:05,889
给大家做一个简单的介绍

372
00:16:05,889 --> 00:16:08,049
接下来呢我想讲一支呃

373
00:16:08,049 --> 00:16:10,950
有一段时间没有讲的这个消费股啊

374
00:16:10,950 --> 00:16:12,870
是关于呃过

375
00:16:12,870 --> 00:16:15,549
因为这个消费股呢长期以来也是比较高估的啊

376
00:16:15,549 --> 00:16:16,230
然后呢

377
00:16:16,230 --> 00:16:19,809
今天由于也出了销售的数据给大家看一下

378
00:16:19,809 --> 00:16:22,399
就是COSTCO

379
00:16:24,179 --> 00:16:27,059
COSTCO的6月的销售数据出来了啊

380
00:16:27,059 --> 00:16:29,860
还是让人有一些担心的

381
00:16:30,529 --> 00:16:33,889
整个的6月份的销售情况呢是喜忧各半

382
00:16:33,889 --> 00:16:36,269
虽然6月份的销售额啊

383
00:16:36,269 --> 00:16:38,330
是创下了今年迄今为止的

384
00:16:38,330 --> 00:16:40,409
最高的月度销售记录啊

385
00:16:40,409 --> 00:16:43,664
就是从这个资金的额度上是创记录

386
00:16:43,710 --> 00:16:47,169
但是呢同店销售额同比增速

387
00:16:47,169 --> 00:16:50,159
却是2月份以来的最低水平

388
00:16:50,159 --> 00:16:51,799
与近几个月相比

389
00:16:51,799 --> 00:16:53,980
同店销售额增速相对放缓

390
00:16:53,980 --> 00:16:56,349
只增长了8.8%

391
00:16:56,349 --> 00:16:57,389
相比之下呢

392
00:16:57,389 --> 00:17:00,028
5月份和4月份一个增长了12.5

393
00:17:00,028 --> 00:17:01,889
一个增长了11.6

394
00:17:01,889 --> 00:17:03,309
值得注意的是呢

395
00:17:03,309 --> 00:17:04,710
公司表示说啊

396
00:17:04,710 --> 00:17:06,289
汽油价格上涨

397
00:17:06,289 --> 00:17:09,818
对同店销售额产生了2.5%的积极影响

398
00:17:09,818 --> 00:17:10,459
为什么

399
00:17:10,459 --> 00:17:11,699
因为汽油涨价了嘛

400
00:17:11,699 --> 00:17:11,999
对吧

401
00:17:11,999 --> 00:17:14,009
这个之前价格是比较高的

402
00:17:14,009 --> 00:17:16,569
那么全球的平均的销售额

403
00:17:16,569 --> 00:17:18,888
较去年同期上涨了22.4%

404
00:17:18,888 --> 00:17:22,108
那么剔除汽油和外汇汇率的影响

405
00:17:22,108 --> 00:17:25,048
那么COSTCO在加拿大的同店销售额增长

406
00:17:25,048 --> 00:17:26,148
4.9%

407
00:17:26,148 --> 00:17:28,058
在其他呃

408
00:17:28,058 --> 00:17:31,338
十几个设有门店的国家增长5.6%

409
00:17:31,338 --> 00:17:34,118
美国同店销售剔除上述因素后

410
00:17:34,118 --> 00:17:36,250
增长了7.6%

411
00:17:36,250 --> 00:17:37,849
总的来讲什么意思呢

412
00:17:37,849 --> 00:17:39,769
就是增速还是保持

413
00:17:39,769 --> 00:17:41,990
但是增速放缓

414
00:17:41,990 --> 00:17:43,049
增速放缓

415
00:17:43,049 --> 00:17:46,049
其实大家我们跟AI的资本支出是一个道理啊

416
00:17:46,049 --> 00:17:47,589
就是增长它还是增长

417
00:17:47,589 --> 00:17:50,450
但它放缓这个趋势是不对的

418
00:17:50,450 --> 00:17:53,380
因为我们说趋势一般是从高速增长

419
00:17:53,380 --> 00:17:55,220
加速增长到放缓

420
00:17:55,220 --> 00:17:56,559
增长到持平

421
00:17:56,559 --> 00:17:58,160
不增长到衰退

422
00:17:58,160 --> 00:17:59,920
是这么一个周期过程

423
00:17:59,920 --> 00:18:01,519
它不是说我在快速增长

424
00:18:01,519 --> 00:18:03,779
然后啪就直接断崖就衰退了

425
00:18:03,779 --> 00:18:04,640
不是这样啊

426
00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:05,359
包括经济

427
00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:07,619
包括大家看这个GDP也是这样的

428
00:18:07,619 --> 00:18:08,819
它中间有一个过程

429
00:18:08,819 --> 00:18:10,220
大家看的是个趋势

430
00:18:10,220 --> 00:18:11,529
看的是一个预期

431
00:18:11,529 --> 00:18:12,910
所以趋势放缓

432
00:18:12,910 --> 00:18:13,769
那么这个是对

433
00:18:13,769 --> 00:18:15,829
让大家来讲是一个比较担心的事情

434
00:18:15,829 --> 00:18:18,509
同时呢也确实反映出

435
00:18:18,509 --> 00:18:23,049
现在整体的消费是有一些问题的啊

436
00:18:23,049 --> 00:18:25,529
因为COSTCO其实一直来讲都是比较强的啊

437
00:18:25,529 --> 00:18:28,359
他也是有一些龙头性的指标意义的

438
00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,140
嗯美国的整个的GDP的增长

439
00:18:31,140 --> 00:18:35,589
在传统来讲都是消费主导

440
00:18:35,589 --> 00:18:38,150
那么这一次呢从2026年

441
00:18:38,150 --> 00:18:39,910
我们看到2025年底以来啊

442
00:18:39,910 --> 00:18:43,940
下半年以来是AI投资主导

443
00:18:43,940 --> 00:18:47,740
相当于变成了基础设施建设作为一个主导

444
00:18:47,740 --> 00:18:49,970
所以呢在这种情况下

445
00:18:49,970 --> 00:18:54,329
那么大家就特别要注意这里边消费这头不行

446
00:18:54,329 --> 00:18:58,029
如果AI这边未来要是真的也开始放缓

447
00:18:58,029 --> 00:19:00,849
那其实对于GDP也是有非常大的影响

448
00:19:00,849 --> 00:19:02,390
就是咱们之前担心的啊

449
00:19:02,390 --> 00:19:04,680
说要小心小心啊

450
00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:07,890
他一定AI货币化要成功

451
00:19:07,890 --> 00:19:09,309
其实哪怕慢一点

452
00:19:09,309 --> 00:19:10,910
他也要把它给抬

453
00:19:10,910 --> 00:19:12,029
也得抬上去

454
00:19:12,029 --> 00:19:14,618
不抬上去有点麻烦好吧

455
00:19:14,618 --> 00:19:18,499
所以呢希望大家这个事情还是要放在心上啊

456
00:19:18,499 --> 00:19:21,730
因为市场呢看上去过去几年年年在涨

457
00:19:21,730 --> 00:19:22,289
一直在涨

458
00:19:22,289 --> 00:19:24,130
不代表永远都会涨

459
00:19:24,130 --> 00:19:26,009
也不代表永远都没有风险对吧

460
00:19:26,009 --> 00:19:27,049
21年涨的那么好

461
00:19:27,049 --> 00:19:28,480
22年也不耽误它下跌啊

462
00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:32,490
所以呢大家把这个风险意识放在心中

463
00:19:32,490 --> 00:19:34,289
你这个自然的在平常

464
00:19:34,289 --> 00:19:35,809
那就走的走得远

465
00:19:35,809 --> 00:19:37,599
走得长啊

466
00:19:37,599 --> 00:19:42,599
好这个呢是COSTCO把他的股价也给大家简单看一下

467
00:19:43,849 --> 00:19:45,210
coco的价格呢

468
00:19:45,210 --> 00:19:48,630
它的价位呢目前还是一个高估状况啊

469
00:19:48,630 --> 00:19:50,898
基于目前的高倍数下

470
00:19:50,898 --> 00:19:52,638
26年8月的前瞻是七六

471
00:19:52,638 --> 00:19:52,919
一

472
00:19:52,919 --> 00:19:55,920
27年8月的前瞻是838啊

473
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:57,039
还是一个高估状况啊

474
00:19:57,039 --> 00:19:59,279
这是他长期以来的一个状况

475
00:19:59,279 --> 00:20:00,660
那这一次高估的情况

476
00:20:00,660 --> 00:20:03,380
比以往维持的时间要更长一些

477
00:20:03,380 --> 00:20:05,420
那么下方呢有几个地方

478
00:20:05,420 --> 00:20:09,119
也就是一直是到867之前

479
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,450
都是属于较强的支撑

480
00:20:11,450 --> 00:20:13,150
如果867跌破了

481
00:20:13,150 --> 00:20:14,009
那不好意思

482
00:20:14,009 --> 00:20:15,410
就要走均值回归了啊

483
00:20:15,410 --> 00:20:17,690
就要回到它的正常区间去了

484
00:20:17,690 --> 00:20:20,099
所以这支股票看好的朋友呢

485
00:20:20,099 --> 00:20:22,460
那你可能还是要看看它的业绩

486
00:20:22,460 --> 00:20:23,980
看看它的价格走势啊

487
00:20:23,980 --> 00:20:27,440
千万呢别说回头跌到867以下了

488
00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:30,759
呃然后你还觉得他那个时候是不是低估了

489
00:20:30,759 --> 00:20:31,859
他没有低估啊

490
00:20:31,859 --> 00:20:32,640
它不跌

491
00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:34,759
但是正常的大家资金不撤

492
00:20:34,759 --> 00:20:38,420
那么机构扎堆它跌了是合理的好吧

493
00:20:38,420 --> 00:20:39,220
跌了是合理的

494
00:20:39,220 --> 00:20:40,740
所以你要做几手准备

495
00:20:40,740 --> 00:20:44,779
把你的持仓成本尽量的往更低的位置去放

496
00:20:44,779 --> 00:20:46,700
如果你的持仓成本现在就在600块

497
00:20:46,700 --> 00:20:47,759
那你不用担心了

498
00:20:47,759 --> 00:20:48,980
你根本就不用担心好吧

499
00:20:48,980 --> 00:20:49,579
一点都不用担心

500
00:20:49,579 --> 00:20:50,960
你有50%的浮盈

501
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:52,920
他回撤到800块

502
00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:55,039
然后你对你来讲影响也不大啊

503
00:20:55,039 --> 00:20:58,140
你长期来讲这只股票仍旧是一只非常好的

504
00:20:58,140 --> 00:21:00,159
很抗揍的股票

505
00:21:00,159 --> 00:21:01,898
好讲完这个之后呢

506
00:21:01,898 --> 00:21:02,930
讲到呃

507
00:21:02,930 --> 00:21:05,210
刚才讲了一些其他的大盘

508
00:21:05,210 --> 00:21:06,049
包括科技股

509
00:21:06,049 --> 00:21:08,029
咱们在过去一段时间讲的太多了

510
00:21:08,029 --> 00:21:11,799
今天呢我想从另外一个侧面给大家提示一下

511
00:21:11,799 --> 00:21:14,170
三个ETF

512
00:21:15,009 --> 00:21:20,460
这三个ETF呢分别是XLKXLB和XLY

513
00:21:20,460 --> 00:21:22,740
为什么要讲这三个呢

514
00:21:22,740 --> 00:21:26,789
因为这三个给大家看一下走势啊

515
00:21:26,789 --> 00:21:29,170
XLK价格比较高

516
00:21:29,170 --> 00:21:32,509
位置XLB横了很久

517
00:21:32,509 --> 00:21:34,230
位置也不低

518
00:21:34,470 --> 00:21:36,769
XLY同样横了很久

519
00:21:36,769 --> 00:21:39,279
价格位置也不算很低

520
00:21:39,279 --> 00:21:43,640
这三个在标普整个的贡献上来讲啊

521
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:45,670
从做权重贡献上来讲啊

522
00:21:45,670 --> 00:21:47,789
特别是科技非必需品

523
00:21:47,789 --> 00:21:49,210
大科技都在里边

524
00:21:49,210 --> 00:21:51,509
大权重都在里边包着啊

525
00:21:51,509 --> 00:21:53,869
还有一部分包在了这个通讯里边

526
00:21:53,869 --> 00:21:56,430
这几个如果出现问题

527
00:21:56,430 --> 00:21:59,730
那么大盘想守是不好守的

528
00:21:59,730 --> 00:22:02,309
所以呢我提前把他们的位置给大家看一下

529
00:22:02,309 --> 00:22:03,750
他们如果向下破位

530
00:22:03,750 --> 00:22:06,109
那就相对麻烦一点

531
00:22:06,109 --> 00:22:07,349
好XLY

532
00:22:07,349 --> 00:22:09,150
首先我们XLK首先看一眼

533
00:22:09,150 --> 00:22:11,890
他的位置是172

534
00:22:11,890 --> 00:22:14,309
跌破之后就会走空

535
00:22:14,309 --> 00:22:17,269
跌到中等支撑要跌多少呢

536
00:22:17,269 --> 00:22:22,329
大概有15%的跌幅和QQQ非常的相近啊

537
00:22:22,329 --> 00:22:23,730
非常的类似

538
00:22:23,730 --> 00:22:26,450
172块钱其实离得并不远啊

539
00:22:26,450 --> 00:22:27,849
大家不要觉得啊还有好远

540
00:22:27,849 --> 00:22:30,630
十块钱十块钱对他来讲不远好吧

541
00:22:30,630 --> 00:22:32,990
所以大家千万要注意啊

542
00:22:32,990 --> 00:22:36,359
我提前给大家把这个给大家看个点位给到大家

543
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:38,420
让大家平常注意自己追踪

544
00:22:38,420 --> 00:22:40,319
因为这三个是跌不得的

545
00:22:40,319 --> 00:22:41,200
不能破位的

546
00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:41,940
破了位

547
00:22:41,940 --> 00:22:44,880
那大盘的和QQ的一轮回撤比较不错的

548
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,019
回撤就能看得到好

549
00:22:47,019 --> 00:22:49,319
第二个是XLB

550
00:22:49,829 --> 00:22:53,769
他的情况是在48.6到49.7

551
00:22:53,769 --> 00:22:55,730
也不远了啊

552
00:22:55,730 --> 00:22:56,719
也不远

553
00:22:56,719 --> 00:23:00,699
它如果破位向下要跌多少呢

554
00:23:00,699 --> 00:23:04,380
差不多它要跌到45块四才能够有止跌

555
00:23:04,380 --> 00:23:07,339
也是10%的跌幅啊

556
00:23:07,339 --> 00:23:09,700
也是往下要垮掉10%

557
00:23:09,700 --> 00:23:15,349
还有一个XLY它呢往下呃

558
00:23:15,349 --> 00:23:17,569
这个呃刚才XLK是15%啊

559
00:23:17,569 --> 00:23:19,309
XLB是10%

560
00:23:19,309 --> 00:23:21,529
XLY这边呢是多少呢

561
00:23:21,529 --> 00:23:22,650
非必需品

562
00:23:22,650 --> 00:23:25,210
他离得稍微远一点点啊

563
00:23:25,210 --> 00:23:26,309
离得远一点点

564
00:23:26,309 --> 00:23:26,930
115

565
00:23:26,930 --> 00:23:27,529
118

566
00:23:27,529 --> 00:23:29,210
110~113110

567
00:23:29,210 --> 00:23:30,929
这个位置还差五块钱

568
00:23:30,929 --> 00:23:32,929
这个地方跌破之后

569
00:23:32,929 --> 00:23:35,048
它要跌到100块钱左右

570
00:23:35,048 --> 00:23:37,380
也是10%的跌幅

571
00:23:37,380 --> 00:23:39,420
如果这三个板块一个15%

572
00:23:39,420 --> 00:23:39,859
一个10%

573
00:23:39,859 --> 00:23:40,859
一个10%

574
00:23:40,859 --> 00:23:42,700
你想想大盘能好到哪里去

575
00:23:42,700 --> 00:23:43,880
好不到哪里去对吧

576
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,400
所以这三个都是位置离得比较近了

577
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:49,579
所以我拿出来给大家讲一下位置离得远的啊

578
00:23:49,579 --> 00:23:50,940
暂时呢不需要太担心的

579
00:23:50,940 --> 00:23:51,980
咱们就不说啊

580
00:23:51,980 --> 00:23:52,980
有的还高高在上的

581
00:23:52,980 --> 00:23:55,180
还正常的回撤高位支撑

582
00:23:55,180 --> 00:23:56,779
那还早得很好吧

583
00:23:56,779 --> 00:23:57,460
所以呢

584
00:23:57,460 --> 00:23:58,940
这个就是给大家

585
00:23:58,940 --> 00:24:01,859
在这个行情比较清淡的情况下呢

586
00:24:01,859 --> 00:24:05,730
做的一些呃更新好啊

587
00:24:05,730 --> 00:24:07,849
这个呢就是咱们今天节目的全部内容啊

588
00:24:07,849 --> 00:24:10,170
如果你觉得我的节目对你有所帮助

589
00:24:10,170 --> 00:24:13,839
还是希望大家能够多多帮忙点赞评论转发啊

590
00:24:13,839 --> 00:24:16,509
最近呢可能大家早上起来看节目的

591
00:24:16,509 --> 00:24:18,490
可能这忘记点赞了啊

592
00:24:18,490 --> 00:24:19,589
有点不习惯是吧

593
00:24:19,589 --> 00:24:20,890
你别说大家不习惯了

594
00:24:20,890 --> 00:24:22,410
这我也有点不习惯啊

595
00:24:22,410 --> 00:24:25,450
这个时间呃这个录制的时间发生改变

596
00:24:25,450 --> 00:24:27,549
然后呢还要定时发布什么的

597
00:24:27,549 --> 00:24:29,569
哎大家就多多包涵吧

598
00:24:29,569 --> 00:24:32,170
啊这个时间呢最近几个星期是有点混乱的

599
00:24:32,170 --> 00:24:32,910
没办法啊

600
00:24:32,910 --> 00:24:34,179
因为人在外边

601
00:24:34,179 --> 00:24:36,578
白天呢又要玩儿对吧

602
00:24:36,578 --> 00:24:37,719
又要转悠啊

603
00:24:37,719 --> 00:24:40,298
然后呢精力时间呢都是有限的

604
00:24:40,298 --> 00:24:44,250
只能够尽量的给大家呃做一些呃

605
00:24:44,250 --> 00:24:45,630
信息上的辅助吧

606
00:24:45,630 --> 00:24:47,750
如果这个节目呢做的不够精致啊

607
00:24:47,750 --> 00:24:49,609
大家就多多包涵好吧

608
00:24:49,609 --> 00:24:51,569
这个回头等休假结束之后呢

609
00:24:51,569 --> 00:24:54,430
我们再继续回到原来的这个轨道上

610
00:24:54,430 --> 00:24:54,970
好

611
00:24:54,970 --> 00:24:56,829
这个就是咱们今天节目的全部内容啊

612
00:24:56,829 --> 00:24:57,910
那咱们今天到这啊

613
00:24:57,910 --> 00:24:59,210
明天还有节目啊

614
00:24:59,210 --> 00:25:03,019
那咱们就明天的同一时间不见不散

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