是专业预警还是哗众取宠?

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最近有位朋友跑来问我一个问题

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就是说要不要清空手上的纳指基金

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因为他说未来一年可能会发生

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比互联网泡沫还要严重很多的金融危机

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然后我问为什么说一年内会发生金融危机

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对方说是一个专家说的

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然后还发了信息源给我看

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张维维

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这条赛道确实非常拥挤

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以至于需要喊出十倍于互联网泡沫

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世界经济危机这种耸人听闻的标题来吸引关注

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点开他的主页一看

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这风格

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这味儿太熟悉了

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对于这类专家大V

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其实我是不太想花时间去关注和评价的

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因为这样的信息太多

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几乎遍地都是

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而且我也明白了

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很多人上网就只是图个情绪价值

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而这些内容恰恰能让其广大受众

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得到情绪价值和精神慰藉

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本着放下助人情结

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尊重他人命运的原则

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哪怕是垃圾信息

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我自己也早就脱敏了

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毕竟就算是病毒

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我们也要学会与其共存

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何况人家没偷没抢

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为何不能共存呢

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但一旦可能影响到我们的钱包

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就需要高度警惕

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我们往期主题谈过的宏大叙事

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是真的可以毁掉一个人的钱包的

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今天我们的主题就谈谈高志凯

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这个十倍于互联网泡沫的危机到底是怎么回事

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以及是否站得住脚

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一经济危机的说法啊

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在美伊冲突刚爆发时

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若冲突持续不能迅速结束

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将触发全球能源经济金融三重危机叠加爆发

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现在冲突趋于结束

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他重申这一观点

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并表示

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即便没有此次地缘冲突

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在2026~2027年上半年也会爆发

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规模前所未有的全球金融危机

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其破坏力将十倍于2000年互联网泡沫破裂

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危机危机的核心导火索

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是美国主导的人工智能发展模式

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我不知道十倍于2000年互联网泡沫破裂

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危机的这个十倍程度应该如何定义

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但从他具体的论据看

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其实也非常简单直接

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比如AI投资很多

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但缺少变现和应用

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以及美国债务规模很大等等

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另外他还将美国各个不同公司的

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研发与大额投资行为

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简单归纳为一定会失败的人工智能霸凌行为

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但是我们无论从人工智能发展的阶段

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企业估值和市场状况

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美国经济基本面

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中国和其他经济体基本面等多个角度分析

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甚至哗众取宠

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对于其观点

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我的建议如下

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如果你看他的频道是为了获取情绪价值

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那么这是你的自由

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随便看

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但如果你打算参考他的建议

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到自身投资决策上来

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那就要非常警惕了

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因为之前这样的案例实在是太多了

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简直就像发生在昨天一样

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他说2026年下半年

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到2027年上半年会爆发十倍于2000年

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互联网泡沫破裂危机

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这个时间点我已经记录下来

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大概明年这个时候我一定会再来补充合订本

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他对于经济危机的说法是否可信

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后面会详细分析2AI的发展与估值情况

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高志凯将其预测的经济危机

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和2000年互联网泡沫破裂做对比

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并且定义为十倍于当年的严重程度

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那么我们首先看看以美国科技公司最为集中的

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纳斯达克100整体估值怎么样

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当下AI主导的科技股

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估值状况和2000年时期的互联网泡沫

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是完全不同的

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下图是纳斯达克100

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从1999年3月到现在的滚动市盈率变化

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你可以很明显地看到互联网泡沫时期

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纳斯达克100估值非常可怕

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最高时冲到了150倍的水平

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而现在只有34.7倍

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放在过去10年的历史中

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当下这个估值不算夸张

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如果我们看前瞻市盈率情况也是类似的

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互联网泡沫时期前瞻PE最高到了120倍

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现在只有26.6倍

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如果美国市场经历一波

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10%到20%的调整

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然后再来一波财报季更新EPS

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那么纳指100的估值

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能够在现在的基础上

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再压缩20%到30%

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直接进入到低估区间

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在AI的推动下

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这几年来企业盈利的增长在大范围加速

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整个标普500指数的盈利

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2024年增长了10%

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2025年增长了12%

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今年预计将增长25%

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除了2020~2021的特殊阶段

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标普500在历史上没有过这样大的EPS

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绝对值增长

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至于说AI只有卖铲子的赚钱

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缺少变现和应用

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这可能是一个过期了至少半年的错误论据

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因为站在2026年的当下

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AI的应用和蔓延速度已经是肉眼可见的进行了

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比如OpenAI

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还是ANTHROPIC的爆炸式年化营收增长

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以及AWS azure GCP不断加速的云服务营收

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还有CORE wave nbas

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这些new cloud同比好几倍的业务增长

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在应用侧

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微软年化增长123%的AI相关收入

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Sales force service

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Now

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Snowflake

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Data dog

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因为AI而明显加速的营收增长

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另外各个大厂对人力成本大刀阔斧的裁减

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云上GPU的持续上涨的租金

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都证明AI正在迅速推进

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根据open router的统计

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其用户token消耗量每3.2个月就翻一番

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进入2026年以来

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甚至还有所加速

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我们再看具体公司的情况

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英伟达

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微软

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亚马逊各自的滚动市盈率只有31.4倍

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22.6倍以及28.4倍

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各自的10年百分位仅6.9%

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1.9%以及0.1%

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即过去10年中绝大多数时间内

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他们各自的估值都比现在要高

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这三家公司可以说是当下AI最具代表性的公司

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英伟达是半导体绝对龙头

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而微软和亚马逊

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则代表了全球最大的两个云服务商

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亚马逊的bad rock以及微软的fry

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是全球最大的企业级大模型和token分销平台

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各自又是OpenAI和ANTHROPIC最大的股东

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而且护城河都很深厚

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增长十分强劲

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类似这三家这种基本面强劲

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估值合理甚至很便宜的公司

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占据了纳指和标普500的大多数权重

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在估值合理

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AI发展如火如荼的背景下

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指望市场出现所谓十倍于互联网

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泡沫破裂的危机

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可以说是天方夜谭

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另外考察AI是否投资过剩和泡沫

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有一个金标准

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那就是云上算力价格

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因为建数据中心和囤卡确实可以是投机和泡沫

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但云上租GPU算力这种纯消费不可能是泡沫

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有谁会没有需求

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吃饱了没事浪费钱吗

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而现在云上算力的实际情况是

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即使6年前的A100都还载满负荷运行

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租金创出了历史新高

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我们之前在算力收租回报率有多夸张

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主题中

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也用SPACEX的两个算力集群出租案例计算过

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建数据中心来出租

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算力本身就是一项二到3年就回本的现金流

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极好的生意

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与实际情况是完全相反的

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当下AI的问题根本不是投资太多

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而是产能严重不足

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供不应求的情况非常严重

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而且还在变得更严重

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现在限制数据中心发展的最主要瓶颈是两个

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一个是台积电的先进制程和高端封装产能

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另一个是储存

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相对来说

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台积电的制程与封装产能更加紧张

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哪怕这个世界上凭空多出一家台积电

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先进制程与封装的产能都还是不够用

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但换一个角度理解

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台积电先进制程与封装产能的限制

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是AI泡沫的抑制器

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如果产能充足

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那么全球对于数据中心的投资

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促使让科技公司透支投资数据中心

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最终即便需求增长

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但供应增长更快

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可能酿成如图当年互联网一样的泡沫

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但实际情况是

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台积电以及存储通信等上游的产能有限

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甚至距离客户需求的差距越来越大

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最终产能的限制会熨平

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投资在短时间内的泡沫化

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让AI产业有时间在泡沫涨起来之前

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得以更大发展和应用

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伴随AI需求的爆发

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超越开PEX增长

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华尔街预计

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AI投入最大的四大科技公司

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会在2028年开始

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自由现金流预计将开始猛增

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三美国经济基本面

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这个一年到一年半之内发生的金融危机

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将从美国开始

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风暴中心也是美国

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我们一开始已经分析过

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当下AI产业严重供不应求的基本面

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现在我们看看美国宏观经济基本面

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要考察美国是否可能出现经济危机

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00:07:53,339 --> 00:07:56,300
核心中的核心是看美国居民部门的财务状况

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00:07:56,300 --> 00:07:58,180
因为消费取决于居民的内需

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00:07:58,180 --> 00:08:00,850
而消费又占据美国GDP的七成之多

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00:08:00,850 --> 00:08:02,370
回顾之前一次金融危机

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00:08:02,370 --> 00:08:04,569
当时的情况就是在次贷的飙升下

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美国居民杠杆率突破了100%

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那个时候

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次贷问题是美国经济一个非常明确的大雷

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只是不知道什么时候爆炸

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00:08:12,279 --> 00:08:13,540
一个明确的灰犀牛

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00:08:13,540 --> 00:08:15,939
如果2020年也算一次经济危机的话

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00:08:15,939 --> 00:08:18,339
则是疫情冲击导致的短期停摆

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00:08:18,339 --> 00:08:21,029
这是一件不可预测的黑天鹅事件

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00:08:21,029 --> 00:08:22,550
现在我们找不到美国经济

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00:08:22,550 --> 00:08:24,189
有哪个非常明显的雷点

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00:08:24,189 --> 00:08:25,449
无论是居民部门

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00:08:25,449 --> 00:08:27,418
企业部门还是政府部门

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00:08:27,418 --> 00:08:29,798
居民部门杠杆率从次贷危机后不断下降

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00:08:29,798 --> 00:08:32,658
从100%以上下降到现在的60%多

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00:08:32,658 --> 00:08:34,678
美国近期公布了在2026年5月

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00:08:34,678 --> 00:08:36,298
零售及餐饮服务销售额

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达到7637亿美元

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00:08:38,250 --> 00:08:40,309
这个数字环比增长0.9%

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同比增长6.9%

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00:08:41,789 --> 00:08:42,929
远超市场预期

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00:08:42,929 --> 00:08:45,370
这是顶着油价上涨和通胀反弹的压力

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获得的成绩

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00:08:46,179 --> 00:08:47,840
美国消费韧性确实很强

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根本原因是美国居民部门财务状况非常稳健

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杠杆率稳中有降

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00:08:52,370 --> 00:08:54,350
另外非金融企业部门的杠杆率

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00:08:54,350 --> 00:08:56,049
在疫情期间冲到高点

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00:08:56,049 --> 00:08:58,289
2021~2025年持续下降

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00:08:58,289 --> 00:08:59,990
目前整体财务状况稳定

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00:08:59,990 --> 00:09:01,360
系统性风险不高

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00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:04,120
特别是那些大举投资AI的大型优质企业

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的财务普遍都十分稳健

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00:09:05,899 --> 00:09:08,120
政府部门的债务总量虽然大幅增长

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00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:10,659
但联邦收入自2020年到2025年

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也增长了53%

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00:09:12,259 --> 00:09:13,080
作为对比

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同期美国联邦债务总量的增幅

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是39.7%

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00:09:16,629 --> 00:09:18,470
明显低于联邦收入增长

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也就是说

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当下联邦政府的偿债压力

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00:09:20,929 --> 00:09:22,649
其实是低于2020年的

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00:09:22,649 --> 00:09:24,769
而且未来一旦通胀回到正常水平

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00:09:24,769 --> 00:09:26,029
美联储利率下降

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00:09:26,029 --> 00:09:28,389
债务中的利息成本也将大幅减少

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00:09:28,389 --> 00:09:29,690
由于美国经济韧性

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00:09:29,690 --> 00:09:32,669
加上美伊冲突带来的油价上涨和通胀反复

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00:09:32,669 --> 00:09:35,720
市场甚至担忧下一步美联储可能加息

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00:09:36,980 --> 00:09:38,559
一个即将陷入危机的经济体

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00:09:40,100 --> 00:09:41,440
而不可能敢于加息

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00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:42,610
想都不敢想

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00:09:42,610 --> 00:09:44,330
从宏观经济基本面看

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00:09:44,330 --> 00:09:46,070
美国经济放缓是有可能的

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00:09:46,070 --> 00:09:48,460
但不存在经济危机的基础

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00:09:48,860 --> 00:09:51,340
四中国的转型红利

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00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:54,620
作为世界第二大经济体

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00:09:54,620 --> 00:09:56,519
中国的表现也影响全球

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00:09:56,519 --> 00:09:59,659
目前中国居民财务状况也在做主动调整

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00:09:59,659 --> 00:10:01,759
过去几年中国居民减少负债

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00:10:01,759 --> 00:10:02,639
积累储蓄

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00:10:02,639 --> 00:10:04,720
表面上看资产负债表不再扩张

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00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:06,460
但实际上是在修炼内功

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00:10:06,460 --> 00:10:08,039
改善自身的财务状况

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00:10:08,039 --> 00:10:10,360
就像美国在2008年后的这十多年里

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00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:11,740
居民部门的情况类似

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00:10:11,740 --> 00:10:13,220
未来只要居民好

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00:10:13,220 --> 00:10:13,980
消费好

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00:10:13,980 --> 00:10:15,059
经济就会好

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00:10:15,059 --> 00:10:18,419
另外AI也正在推动中国经济更加高质量的发展

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00:10:18,419 --> 00:10:21,120
我们以2026年5月中国外贸数据为例

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00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:21,879
在这个月

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00:10:21,879 --> 00:10:24,840
中国进出口总值6481.3亿美元

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00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:26,720
同比增长了22.6%

304
00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:29,620
这其中出口3767.8亿美元

305
00:10:29,620 --> 00:10:31,350
同比增长19.4%

306
00:10:33,549 --> 00:10:35,269
同比增长27.4%

307
00:10:35,269 --> 00:10:37,509
顺差1054.3亿美元

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00:10:37,509 --> 00:10:39,490
这次数据和去年数据的不同在于

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00:10:39,490 --> 00:10:41,490
这次中国对美贸易大幅增长

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00:10:41,490 --> 00:10:43,590
对美出口增长35.4%

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00:10:43,590 --> 00:10:45,919
从美进口增长20.4%

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00:10:45,919 --> 00:10:48,470
拉动中国出口增长的主要项目包括

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00:10:48,470 --> 00:10:51,610
集成电路出口额同比约增长111%

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00:10:51,610 --> 00:10:53,309
自动数据处理设备出口额

315
00:10:53,309 --> 00:10:55,220
同比增长66.1%

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00:10:55,220 --> 00:10:56,779
AI推动十分明显

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00:10:56,779 --> 00:10:57,860
伴随AI发展

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00:10:57,860 --> 00:10:59,659
中国新产业还有很大空间

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00:10:59,659 --> 00:11:01,279
因为如果我们仔细看数据

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00:11:01,279 --> 00:11:04,139
5月集成电路出口量为307.3亿个

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00:11:04,139 --> 00:11:05,789
同比只增2.1%

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00:11:05,789 --> 00:11:08,610
也就是说半导体出口量没有增加多少

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00:11:08,610 --> 00:11:11,899
推动出口额暴增的是半导体单价涨了一倍

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00:11:11,899 --> 00:11:14,379
未来中国产能有巨大增长空间

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00:11:14,379 --> 00:11:16,399
不仅满足中国自身的AI需求

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00:11:16,399 --> 00:11:18,730
还能服务世界中国大陆之外

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00:11:18,730 --> 00:11:20,250
亚太地区其他经济体

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00:11:20,250 --> 00:11:21,250
例如日韩台

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00:11:21,250 --> 00:11:22,649
现在经济和就业怎么样

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00:11:22,649 --> 00:11:24,009
应该不用我多说了吧

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00:11:24,009 --> 00:11:25,990
印度和东南亚继续高增长

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00:11:25,990 --> 00:11:27,429
欧元区经济相对较弱

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00:11:27,429 --> 00:11:29,450
但距离经济危机还非常远

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00:11:29,450 --> 00:11:32,330
无论是未来一年还是可预见的几年时间内

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00:11:32,330 --> 00:11:34,860
无论是对中国还是对美国

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00:11:35,179 --> 00:11:36,399
我都是乐观的

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00:11:36,399 --> 00:11:38,500
五总结

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00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:40,779
综合上文的分析

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00:11:40,779 --> 00:11:43,519
不管美国中国还是世界其他地方

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00:11:43,519 --> 00:11:46,649
未来一年全球经济危机都不存在发生的基础

341
00:11:46,649 --> 00:11:49,570
但是预测一年内世界发生严重经济危机

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00:11:49,570 --> 00:11:51,509
这样的话题很容易吸引眼球

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00:11:51,509 --> 00:11:52,450
赚取流量

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00:11:52,450 --> 00:11:55,370
而且由于所谓的立场原因还非常安全

345
00:11:55,370 --> 00:11:58,078
然而诋毁他人并不能成就自己

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00:11:58,078 --> 00:11:58,999
恰恰相反

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00:11:58,999 --> 00:12:01,139
当今世界经济早已相互交融

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00:12:01,139 --> 00:12:02,099
一损俱损

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00:12:04,119 --> 00:12:05,558
我不知道其目的是什么

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00:12:05,558 --> 00:12:06,620
但从结果看

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00:12:06,620 --> 00:12:08,580
很可能让其大量读者遭受

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00:12:08,580 --> 00:12:10,399
真正的精神焦虑和财务损失

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00:12:10,399 --> 00:12:13,039
AI发展到现在已经是确定性非常强的

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00:12:13,039 --> 00:12:13,740
产业革命

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00:12:13,740 --> 00:12:15,139
不只是美国科技大厂

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00:12:15,139 --> 00:12:15,720
日本

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00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:16,259
韩国

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00:12:16,259 --> 00:12:16,960
新加坡

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00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:20,120
欧盟以及中东国家也纷纷大力投资AI

360
00:12:22,919 --> 00:12:24,700
发展国内AI基础设施

361
00:12:24,700 --> 00:12:25,879
投资AI发展

362
00:12:29,110 --> 00:12:30,889
而是全球共识

363
00:12:30,889 --> 00:12:31,730
总的来说

364
00:12:31,730 --> 00:12:32,690
对于自己的钱包

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00:12:32,690 --> 00:12:33,929
我们必须绝对理性

366
00:12:33,929 --> 00:12:37,019
而且坚决免疫宏大叙事这种病毒

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00:12:37,019 --> 00:12:40,340
我在往期主题宏大叙事是怎样毁掉你的钱包

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00:12:40,340 --> 00:12:40,899
说过

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00:12:40,899 --> 00:12:43,620
普通人很容易依赖宏大叙事和集体主义

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00:12:43,620 --> 00:12:45,220
为自己提供情绪价值

371
00:12:45,220 --> 00:12:46,299
而残酷的是

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00:12:46,299 --> 00:12:48,539
普通人本身的抗风险能力不强

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00:12:48,539 --> 00:12:50,679
在宏大叙事和垃圾信息轰炸之下

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00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:53,440
最终会影响到重要的生活和投资决策

375
00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:55,399
无奈这类信息充斥各个角落

376
00:12:55,399 --> 00:12:58,600
我们普通人能做的唯有坚守常识逻辑

377
00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:00,109
坚持独立思考

378
00:13:00,109 --> 00:13:02,649
本期主题中大量信息来自星球内容

379
00:13:02,649 --> 00:13:04,308
由于付费读者增长很快

380
00:13:04,308 --> 00:13:06,489
现在我也花了更多时间在我的星球

381
00:13:06,489 --> 00:13:08,599
比用在微信公众号的时间多很多

382
00:13:08,599 --> 00:13:12,318
感兴趣的朋友可以通过下方海报了解和加入

383
00:13:13,220 --> 00:13:14,799
如果你喜欢本期视频

384
00:13:14,799 --> 00:13:16,220
希望可以点赞关注

385
00:13:16,220 --> 00:13:16,919
支持一波

386
00:13:16,919 --> 00:13:19,240
这将对我有很大的帮助

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