【Financial Education】这只股票准备爆发了！

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我们确实喜欢它

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当那些松饼翻转得恰到好处时

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不是吗

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我希望大家都在这里赚了不少钱

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嗯，公开交易今天累计了七万两千美元

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公开交易量大幅上涨

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为什么这太惊人了

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许多大型科技股走势强劲

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嘿，你持有AMD又赚了四万多美元

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今天走势上扬

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公开交易量上涨近一点

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AMD公开交易量瞬间增加一百万美元

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此时此刻接近四百个百分点涨幅

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说到四百个百分点以上的涨幅

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看看Meta

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今日上涨一万二千美元

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亚马逊今日上涨一万一千美元

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谷歌麦当劳

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大幅上涨近五个百分点

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今日上涨三千六百美元

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Palantir走势活跃

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像圣诞老人的礼物般飙升

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持续强劲上涨势头

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今天我特意查看了这个

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这真是令人着迷

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他们在这里展示的图表

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展示网景浏览器发布时的

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这在科技泡沫时期与ChatGPT发布时的对比

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纳斯达克自此的表现如何

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这相当令人惊叹

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有一点可以明确

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你可以看看这个图表

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可以说

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这里确实存在很强相关性

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但你也可以说

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如果你了解我们所处的时期

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这次AI热潮

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如果这与科技泡沫时期类似

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你知道的

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互联网时代股票疯狂上涨

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我是说

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我们在这个周期中还有几年时间

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没错

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中国货币供应量增长前所未有

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中国M2货币供应量创纪录

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达到GDP的两百四十个百分点

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全球主要经济体中最高

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看到这一点很令人震撼

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如果你正在考虑购房

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未来几个月

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你肯定拥有

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嗯

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我可以说一些

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我们称之为

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市场优势

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看看这个

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现有的住房供应

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目前市场上的存量房

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此时此刻这是最高的

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多年以来从未有过

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如果你在住房市场

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并计划在未来

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你知道我们可以称为六到十二个月

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我认为你实际上在谈判中占据了极大优势

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看看这次台湾突袭

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超微办公室扩大芯片出口

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探测

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这是一个引人入胜的局面

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没错，elf on a shelf 已上涨42%，过去三周

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与此同时，像甲骨文这样的股票过去三周下跌3.1%

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说说这两只股票走势迥异

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今天的视频中

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女士们先生们

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今天我们有三个核心主题要讨论

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第一天我有关于美光AMD的重要新闻

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Meta谷歌

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这些今日的股票

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好的，现在发生了什么

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以及这将如何发展

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好的

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第二部分我们将分析估值

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很多人不了解如何估值股票

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没错，我想在今天的视频中稍作演示

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如何评估公司价值

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不管怎样

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如果你已入市

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几个月或一两年

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希望这段内容能帮你理解公司估值

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好的

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我给你几个要点

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第三部分我们将讨论

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elf 明显有强劲势头

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过去三周上涨42%

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这是否很快会突破百美元

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当前价格为69美元

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大致今日价位

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因此我想在视频中探讨这个主题

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如果你还没这样做

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你需要为我做一件事

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请

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这是我要求你为这个视频做的所有事情

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我只需要你点击点赞按钮

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一个小小的竖起大拇指

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图标

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我需要你让它发光

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就这样了

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好的

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感谢你今天加入我一起参与这个

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看看千倍徽章

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今天我们正式启动千倍徽章计划

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美国宝宝

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考虑到七月初四即将到来，我觉得这样很合适

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另外请订阅我们的频道

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如果你还没订阅

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你在做什么呢

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我们即将推出大型七夕四月促销

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敬请关注四千倍官网com

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想要参与这次促销

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详情请看下方置顶评论

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请输入您的姓名

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填写您的邮箱

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我们将立即发送专属优惠，活动将于七月四日启动

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女士们先生们

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请听微软和谷歌、Meta

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所有这些内容

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请大家注意重要信息

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他们正在解析最新动态

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呃

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新一代iPhone

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他们在讨论这款手机的价格问题

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特别是在存储容量方面

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以及iPhone存储配置的变化

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17 Pro型号

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预计存储成本约39美元

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大约13美元

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在新一代iPhone中

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这款机型将在几个月后发布

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预计存储价格将上涨至145美元

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这个数字可能在发布前进一步上涨

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但目前已预估存储价格为145美元，512GB版本145美元

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这显然是个大问题

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这就是苹果宣布

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提高电脑价格

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提高平板价格

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所有这些举措

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新一代iPhone很可能大幅涨价

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没错

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这不是虚构的谣言

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这是事实

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内存价格简直疯狂上涨

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因此所有电子产品都将变得更加昂贵

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或者供应商将承担成本

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但他们不会承担成本

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然后他们会将这部分

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转嫁给消费者对吧

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我认为苹果会承担

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你知道大约两百美元的涨幅

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内存存储的大致成本

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当然现在还不是

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事情变得越来越有趣了

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据报道苹果正在寻求美国批准从中国CXMT采购内存

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一家五角大楼

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被制裁的DRAM供应商

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由AI驱动的短缺

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正推高内存成本

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我相信一家我多年前曾拥有的老公司

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叫做嗯

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这要追溯到整个新冠疫情时期

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但他们被称为corsair

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没错他们正在使用这家公司部分内存

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没错很多人在使用这家公司

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就像许多公司一样

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所以苹果可能开始使用他们

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对我们非常重要

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我们需要指出这一点

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CXMT主要生产落后制程

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普通DRAM产品

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并非领先技术

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高带宽内存

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即使苹果获得批准

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也无法解决高带宽内存短缺问题

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推动AI服务器利润率

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这一点很重要

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但最终

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这表明苹果正在尝试使用其他供应商

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这意味着苹果将开始使用中国企业

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现在

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我们将观察后续发展

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但基本上在过去的

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我估计四到七十二小时

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这出现了一个裂痕

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开始显现出来

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天啊

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内存价格变得极其夸张

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所有人都开始关注此事

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这条新闻刚刚发布

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内存三巨头

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三星

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SK海力士和美光因价格创历史新高面临集体诉讼

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现在他们开始对这些公司提起集体诉讼

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他们试图说这些公司串通一气，试图维持

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你知道的

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他们称供应被人为压低，现在价格涨得离谱

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就是这些情况对吧

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他们还会指向财务数据中的内容，比如

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我不知道你们是否看到最新的美光财报

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里面有一些非常重要的信息

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我认为这一点值得指出

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听我说，我看到的非常重要

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美光的营收增长了三百多%

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没错

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三百多%

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你知道成本增加了多少

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根据我查看的报告

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我记得成本上涨了约11%

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营收增长三百多%

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成本上涨约11%

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这意味着价格疯涨

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对啊，然后

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并不是说

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他们只是大量生产

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所以营收增长三百多%

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只是能收取的价格

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价格飙升了

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这是一个有趣的时间段

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他们会分析这类财务数据

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然后试图拼凑其他证据

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试图在法庭上证明什么

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我们将看到结果如何

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但故事的核心并非这场诉讼

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这些公司是否需要支付罚款

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或者这不是关键

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现在的问题是

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显然我们面临内存价格的紧急情况

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当前发生的事情

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这局势还会进一步恶化

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没错

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想象一下这种情况

239
00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:11,699
如果所有价格都上涨

240
00:08:11,699 --> 00:08:13,180
这台笔记本更贵了

241
00:08:13,180 --> 00:08:14,379
这台电脑更贵了

242
00:08:14,379 --> 00:08:16,350
这些产品价格显著上涨

243
00:08:16,350 --> 00:08:18,009
手机价格也在上涨

244
00:08:18,009 --> 00:08:21,079
你将无法卖出那么多

245
00:08:21,079 --> 00:08:22,939
此外还会加剧通胀

246
00:08:22,939 --> 00:08:23,319
现在

247
00:08:23,319 --> 00:08:27,269
我们过去几年一直面临严重通胀问题

248
00:08:27,269 --> 00:08:30,310
政府正试图解决这个问题

249
00:08:30,310 --> 00:08:31,990
这种通胀水平

250
00:08:31,990 --> 00:08:35,149
没错，这会在数据中显现

251
00:08:35,149 --> 00:08:35,649
对

252
00:08:35,649 --> 00:08:38,149
此外人们无法购买那么多

253
00:08:38,149 --> 00:08:39,509
这会减少税收收入

254
00:08:39,509 --> 00:08:39,990
没错

255
00:08:39,990 --> 00:08:41,870
经济活动也会减少

256
00:08:41,870 --> 00:08:44,029
外面正在经历一波增长

257
00:08:44,029 --> 00:08:47,029
同时人们和公司都负担不起

258
00:08:47,029 --> 00:08:49,490
因为如果内存价格大幅上涨

259
00:08:49,490 --> 00:08:51,730
你就无法采购更多amd芯片

260
00:08:51,730 --> 00:08:52,529
或nvidia芯片

261
00:08:52,529 --> 00:08:54,250
无法按需求获取所需芯片

262
00:08:54,250 --> 00:08:56,049
如果内存价格成为瓶颈

263
00:08:56,049 --> 00:08:56,568
没错

264
00:08:56,568 --> 00:08:58,749
想象内存价格持续上涨

265
00:08:58,749 --> 00:08:59,609
持续上涨

266
00:08:59,609 --> 00:09:03,048
人们在大型企业只能投入有限资金

267
00:09:03,048 --> 00:09:04,679
只能有限资金可支配

268
00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:10,210
如果必须不断增加内存开支

269
00:09:10,210 --> 00:09:13,669
就无法负担更多芯片费用

270
00:09:13,669 --> 00:09:15,970
如果内存价格大幅降低

271
00:09:15,970 --> 00:09:18,049
就能购买更多amd和nvidia芯片

272
00:09:18,049 --> 00:09:20,529
但amd和nvidia不得不提价

273
00:09:20,529 --> 00:09:23,570
若高带宽内存持续涨价

274
00:09:23,570 --> 00:09:24,029
没错

275
00:09:24,029 --> 00:09:25,710
amd不会承担这部分成本

276
00:09:25,710 --> 00:09:28,818
因为gpu和cpu需求极高

277
00:09:28,818 --> 00:09:30,219
你觉得nvidia会承担吗

278
00:09:30,219 --> 00:09:31,038
当然不会

279
00:09:31,038 --> 00:09:31,979
他们不会承担

280
00:09:31,979 --> 00:09:35,458
会转嫁给meta、谷歌、亚马逊等

281
00:09:35,458 --> 00:09:37,169
这些公司当然

282
00:09:37,169 --> 00:09:38,409
就像苹果公司

283
00:09:38,409 --> 00:09:41,029
或所有手机制造商

284
00:09:41,029 --> 00:09:42,720
销售电脑

285
00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:43,759
iPad

286
00:09:43,759 --> 00:09:45,179
所有这些产品

287
00:09:45,179 --> 00:09:46,679
他们不会袖手旁观

288
00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:48,240
会转嫁给消费者

289
00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:49,289
但问题在于

290
00:09:49,289 --> 00:09:50,850
最终人们会说负担不起

291
00:09:50,850 --> 00:09:51,850
我无法继续了

292
00:09:51,850 --> 00:09:56,419
没错，这就是当前面临的局面

293
00:09:56,419 --> 00:10:02,369
Micron的核心问题是自身成功反噬

294
00:10:02,369 --> 00:10:03,068
不仅Micron

295
00:10:03,068 --> 00:10:05,528
如今所有内存芯片公司

296
00:10:05,528 --> 00:10:07,809
都在经历成功反噬

297
00:10:07,809 --> 00:10:10,980
现在它们成为焦点

298
00:10:10,980 --> 00:10:12,440
所有人的关注

299
00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:13,000
我说的

300
00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:17,840
所有科技巨头都将寻求解决之道

301
00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:19,539
正确的政府

302
00:10:20,539 --> 00:10:24,259
现在这个问题已经演变为政府层面的问题了

303
00:10:24,259 --> 00:10:26,980
因为我们谈论的

304
00:10:27,970 --> 00:10:29,250
任何可能放缓

305
00:10:29,250 --> 00:10:32,610
这场AI热潮政府不会喜欢

306
00:10:32,610 --> 00:10:37,509
因为经济很大程度上依赖AI支出的繁荣

307
00:10:37,509 --> 00:10:38,929
如果你放缓这个进程

308
00:10:38,929 --> 00:10:41,269
将显著拖慢经济发展

309
00:10:41,269 --> 00:10:42,629
当经济放缓时

310
00:10:42,629 --> 00:10:44,919
接下来会发生什么

311
00:10:45,399 --> 00:10:46,840
选举中会出现问题

312
00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:49,539
会被选民赶下台

313
00:10:49,539 --> 00:10:51,679
所属政党也会失利

314
00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:55,080
政府现在正审视这个问题并想

315
00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:55,679
嗯

316
00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:57,220
这里到底发生了什么对吧

317
00:10:57,220 --> 00:10:59,460
这就是这些公司取得的成功程度

318
00:10:59,460 --> 00:11:02,899
甚至像台积电这样的巨头也会关注

319
00:11:02,899 --> 00:11:03,940
如果我们谈论

320
00:11:03,940 --> 00:11:05,600
我们必须放缓芯片周期

321
00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:08,259
因为内存价格飙升如此之高

322
00:11:08,259 --> 00:11:11,809
这意味着台积电的订单量减少

323
00:11:11,809 --> 00:11:14,899
显然也影响台湾地区

324
00:11:14,899 --> 00:11:16,500
这里存在诸多连锁反应

325
00:11:16,500 --> 00:11:18,220
但故事的核心在于

326
00:11:18,220 --> 00:11:20,639
从来没有人关注内存芯片公司

327
00:11:20,639 --> 00:11:22,559
从来没有人关注美光

328
00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:24,639
从来没有人关注三星闪存

329
00:11:24,639 --> 00:11:26,559
SK海力士三星的内存业务

330
00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:27,039
这一业务领域

331
00:11:27,039 --> 00:11:27,779
从来没有人真正关心

332
00:11:27,779 --> 00:11:29,600
它们一直是稳健的盈利企业

333
00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:33,940
多数时候甚至亏损巨额资金却无人在意

334
00:11:33,940 --> 00:11:37,379
但现在这些公司已成为全球巨头

335
00:11:37,379 --> 00:11:39,440
如今已成为重大议题

336
00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:41,840
当谈到美光、SK海力士和三星

337
00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:44,730
已是全球市值前三的公司

338
00:11:44,730 --> 00:11:46,970
我认为这三家都在前十之列

339
00:11:46,970 --> 00:11:48,450
目前非常接近前十

340
00:11:48,450 --> 00:11:50,529
三大内存芯片公司

341
00:11:50,779 --> 00:11:52,600
现在所有人都开始关注

342
00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:54,779
即使政府也开始关注

343
00:11:54,779 --> 00:11:56,299
科技巨头也开始介入

344
00:11:56,299 --> 00:12:00,539
所有人都在关注并认为这是问题需要解决

345
00:12:00,539 --> 00:12:05,799
几乎从多角度被视为紧急事件

346
00:12:05,799 --> 00:12:10,919
这些公司取得巨大成功后

347
00:12:10,919 --> 00:12:12,980
如今已成为问题所在

348
00:12:12,980 --> 00:12:15,080
我们需要处理这个问题

349
00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:15,720
好吧

350
00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:17,139
这就是当前局势

351
00:12:17,139 --> 00:12:22,240
在这个时间点，现在你可以看看整个局势中的主要赢家

352
00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:23,320
是那些大手笔花钱的公司

353
00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,769
没错，因为如果存在关于

354
00:12:25,769 --> 00:12:28,190
内存价格的担忧

355
00:12:28,190 --> 00:12:31,289
我们可以称之为未来几个月可能出现的顶部

356
00:12:31,289 --> 00:12:36,200
那么你可能会看到谷歌、Meta

357
00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:37,059
微软

358
00:12:37,059 --> 00:12:37,500
亚马逊

359
00:12:37,500 --> 00:12:40,269
这些公司在这种环境中被视为赢家

360
00:12:40,269 --> 00:12:41,350
毕竟

361
00:12:41,350 --> 00:12:44,909
这些公司需要投入巨额资金购买内存

362
00:12:44,909 --> 00:12:46,509
特别是高带宽内存

363
00:12:46,509 --> 00:12:47,049
没错

364
00:12:47,049 --> 00:12:49,289
大手笔花钱的公司可能被视为赢家

365
00:12:49,289 --> 00:12:50,570
看看今天的情况

366
00:12:50,570 --> 00:12:54,109
面对关于美光科技的诸多负面新闻

367
00:12:54,109 --> 00:12:56,308
而今天大幅受益的股票

368
00:12:56,308 --> 00:12:58,409
谷歌上涨了约5%

369
00:12:58,409 --> 00:13:00,529
亚马逊上涨了3.2%

370
00:13:00,529 --> 00:13:02,590
Meta股价上涨2.2%

371
00:13:02,590 --> 00:13:04,970
唯一输家不幸是

372
00:13:04,970 --> 00:13:06,970
微软其股价下跌

373
00:13:06,970 --> 00:13:07,289
我意思是

374
00:13:07,289 --> 00:13:09,490
微软似乎

375
00:13:09,490 --> 00:13:13,840
现在周围没有任何积极因素围绕微软

376
00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:14,980
关于其股价

377
00:13:14,980 --> 00:13:16,139
看看微软先生

378
00:13:16,139 --> 00:13:19,370
你的股票过去一年下跌近2.6%

379
00:13:19,370 --> 00:13:20,090
而

380
00:13:20,090 --> 00:13:24,090
即使今天有看似积极的消息

381
00:13:24,090 --> 00:13:25,610
它仍然下跌

382
00:13:25,610 --> 00:13:26,818
真是无解

383
00:13:26,818 --> 00:13:27,958
这很有趣

384
00:13:27,958 --> 00:13:30,318
因为微软通常是

385
00:13:30,318 --> 00:13:32,418
最稳定的可靠股票之一

386
00:13:32,418 --> 00:13:33,698
但现状并非如此

387
00:13:33,698 --> 00:13:36,649
我们将观察后续发展

388
00:13:36,649 --> 00:13:38,250
故事的寓意是

389
00:13:38,250 --> 00:13:42,940
如果你持有美光股票或任何内存相关股票

390
00:13:42,940 --> 00:13:44,059
你需要了解以下内容

391
00:13:44,059 --> 00:13:44,399
好的

392
00:13:44,399 --> 00:13:46,879
仔细听好了

393
00:13:46,879 --> 00:13:47,839
我们先说好的一面

394
00:13:47,839 --> 00:13:48,879
然后再说坏的一面

395
00:13:48,879 --> 00:13:50,159
好的一面

396
00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:52,960
这些公司今年明年将赚得盆满钵满

397
00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:53,720
毋庸置疑

398
00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:54,860
毋庸置疑

399
00:13:54,860 --> 00:13:56,370
巨额财富

400
00:13:56,370 --> 00:13:58,490
最高利润率

401
00:13:58,490 --> 00:13:59,090
你知道吗

402
00:13:59,090 --> 00:13:59,649
净利润率

403
00:13:59,649 --> 00:14:00,269
毛利率

404
00:14:00,269 --> 00:14:00,970
每一个利润率

405
00:14:00,970 --> 00:14:01,990
你可能想象得到

406
00:14:01,990 --> 00:14:03,269
我见过的公司

407
00:14:03,269 --> 00:14:05,200
说实话，未来也会见到

408
00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:06,940
这是异常情况

409
00:14:06,940 --> 00:14:09,100
这就是最好的结果

410
00:14:09,100 --> 00:14:10,379
关于这些利润率

411
00:14:10,379 --> 00:14:12,740
这些公司将主导今年和明年

412
00:14:12,740 --> 00:14:13,279
好的

413
00:14:13,279 --> 00:14:15,179
每股收益

414
00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:17,659
这简直难以置信

415
00:14:17,659 --> 00:14:18,480
好的

416
00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:23,120
这些公司将带来大量现金

417
00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:24,840
如果他们想扩大生产

418
00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:25,919
他们可以做到

419
00:14:25,919 --> 00:14:26,240
或者

420
00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:26,679
你知道的

421
00:14:26,679 --> 00:14:27,840
扩建更多设施

422
00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:30,200
而且他们都专注于建设更多设施

423
00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:31,799
对的，但如果他们想加速

424
00:14:31,799 --> 00:14:34,970
他们可以这么做，但需谨慎

425
00:14:34,970 --> 00:14:36,629
因为如果过度扩大生产

426
00:14:36,629 --> 00:14:38,110
而芯片需求放缓

427
00:14:38,110 --> 00:14:39,639
比如说两三年后

428
00:14:39,639 --> 00:14:41,019
那时就会形成恶性循环

429
00:14:41,019 --> 00:14:44,679
这些公司从人人关注它们赚了多少

430
00:14:44,679 --> 00:14:47,519
到人们担忧这会成为问题

431
00:14:47,519 --> 00:14:48,600
没人关心它们

432
00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:49,340
它们正在亏损

433
00:14:49,340 --> 00:14:49,659
没错

434
00:14:49,659 --> 00:14:52,019
没人同情这些亏损的公司

435
00:14:52,019 --> 00:14:53,700
没人同情它们亏损

436
00:14:53,700 --> 00:14:55,100
但当它们如此成功时

437
00:14:55,100 --> 00:14:55,820
人人都在关注

438
00:14:55,820 --> 00:14:56,720
他们说

439
00:14:56,720 --> 00:14:57,460
嗯

440
00:14:57,460 --> 00:14:58,399
这里发生了什么

441
00:14:58,399 --> 00:15:00,860
立刻

442
00:15:00,860 --> 00:15:02,600
它们上了所有人的雷达

443
00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:03,960
所有人的雷达

444
00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:05,000
大家都在思考

445
00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:06,899
如何解决这个问题

446
00:15:06,899 --> 00:15:09,789
这个问题将被处理

447
00:15:09,789 --> 00:15:10,490
嗯

448
00:15:10,490 --> 00:15:12,570
他们不会允许这些公司

449
00:15:12,570 --> 00:15:13,269
你知道的

450
00:15:13,269 --> 00:15:15,549
让内存价格无限上涨

451
00:15:15,549 --> 00:15:17,129
而这并不是运作方式

452
00:15:17,129 --> 00:15:17,679
好的

453
00:15:17,679 --> 00:15:20,440
他们现在会在阳光下尽情享受

454
00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:22,059
但这终将结束

455
00:15:22,059 --> 00:15:25,779
这可能意味着其他科技巨头进入存储业务

456
00:15:25,779 --> 00:15:29,659
因为他们不得不投入大量资金，总有一天

457
00:15:29,659 --> 00:15:31,919
你或许想进入存储芯片行业

458
00:15:31,919 --> 00:15:33,399
没错，如果你需要投入

459
00:15:33,399 --> 00:15:35,879
假设你是这些科技巨头之一，你会说

460
00:15:35,879 --> 00:15:36,440
天啊

461
00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:41,990
未来几年我们在存储领域将投入五十亿美元

462
00:15:41,990 --> 00:15:42,649
没错

463
00:15:42,649 --> 00:15:44,839
想想看

464
00:15:44,839 --> 00:15:46,078
你要花这笔钱

465
00:15:46,078 --> 00:15:49,778
为什么不投入存储芯片业务呢

466
00:15:49,778 --> 00:15:53,730
然后从销售芯片中获利并掌控供应链

467
00:15:53,730 --> 00:15:57,009
当然会有反对意见，比如他们做不到

468
00:15:57,009 --> 00:16:01,159
当然可以，比如Meta难道不会进入存储芯片业

469
00:16:01,159 --> 00:16:02,039
如果他们想的话

470
00:16:02,039 --> 00:16:03,779
你认为亚马逊做不到吗

471
00:16:03,779 --> 00:16:05,879
我觉得谷歌也做不到

472
00:16:05,879 --> 00:16:10,559
当然可以，这取决于他们是否愿意

473
00:16:10,559 --> 00:16:12,490
但如果你开始不得不投入

474
00:16:12,490 --> 00:16:14,909
每年预算中需要十亿美元

475
00:16:14,909 --> 00:16:21,110
或数十亿美元预算仅用于存储芯片

476
00:16:21,110 --> 00:16:23,169
这时你会说嗯

477
00:16:23,169 --> 00:16:25,309
我们得想办法解决这个问题

478
00:16:25,309 --> 00:16:25,570
好的

479
00:16:25,570 --> 00:16:27,909
这只是需要考虑的因素

480
00:16:27,909 --> 00:16:30,330
接下来两年你将赚得盆满钵满

481
00:16:30,330 --> 00:16:33,230
但过度成功

482
00:16:33,230 --> 00:16:33,490
天啊

483
00:16:33,490 --> 00:16:34,149
过度成功

484
00:16:34,149 --> 00:16:35,450
现在已引起所有人关注

485
00:16:35,450 --> 00:16:36,149
没错

486
00:16:36,149 --> 00:16:37,289
接下来是第二点

487
00:16:37,289 --> 00:16:38,590
估值拆解

488
00:16:38,590 --> 00:16:38,970
非常简单

489
00:16:38,970 --> 00:16:39,509
然后我们讨论

490
00:16:39,509 --> 00:16:42,889
如果英飞凌股价涨到百美元以上

491
00:16:42,889 --> 00:16:43,339
好的

492
00:16:43,339 --> 00:16:46,058
市场中有很多公司估值方法

493
00:16:46,058 --> 00:16:46,578
好的

494
00:16:46,578 --> 00:16:49,778
可以做现金流折现模型

495
00:16:49,778 --> 00:16:50,979
还有很多其他方法

496
00:16:50,979 --> 00:16:51,568
DCF

497
00:16:51,568 --> 00:16:52,908
我喜欢看市盈率前瞻

498
00:16:52,908 --> 00:16:54,048
好的，我喜欢思考

499
00:16:54,048 --> 00:16:56,548
公司未来几年能带来多少每股收益

500
00:16:56,548 --> 00:16:57,808
并明智规划

501
00:16:57,808 --> 00:16:59,109
在什么类型的

502
00:16:59,109 --> 00:16:59,629
你知道的

503
00:16:59,629 --> 00:17:01,389
P比率我得为此支付溢价吗

504
00:17:01,389 --> 00:17:02,629
具体是P比率

505
00:17:02,629 --> 00:17:03,200
没错

506
00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:07,339
而前向P比率关注的是下一年的预测

507
00:17:07,339 --> 00:17:08,599
针对该公司

508
00:17:08,599 --> 00:17:10,348
正确针对每股收益

509
00:17:10,348 --> 00:17:13,528
并观察股票价格然后进行计算

510
00:17:13,528 --> 00:17:14,710
例如

511
00:17:14,710 --> 00:17:17,269
如果股票目前交易价为150美元

512
00:17:17,269 --> 00:17:19,829
假设明年能赚6美元

513
00:17:19,829 --> 00:17:21,690
该股票前向P为2.5

514
00:17:21,690 --> 00:17:22,269
明白了

515
00:17:22,269 --> 00:17:24,450
这就是计算方法

516
00:17:24,450 --> 00:17:26,759
基于此开始分析股票

517
00:17:26,759 --> 00:17:28,000
我们关注千禧科技股

518
00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:28,940
现在是科技股

519
00:17:28,940 --> 00:17:30,259
看看这家Meta公司股票

520
00:17:30,259 --> 00:17:33,400
Meta股票当前前向P约17

521
00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:37,349
当然前向P是前瞻性指标

522
00:17:37,349 --> 00:17:40,079
需注意这可能变化

523
00:17:40,079 --> 00:17:41,980
Meta当前前向P可能为14

524
00:17:41,980 --> 00:17:43,680
现在可能达20

525
00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:45,440
甚至更大幅波动

526
00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:47,019
但大致在该区间

527
00:17:47,019 --> 00:17:50,720
通常由分析师综合得出

528
00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:52,680
从而确定前向P

529
00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:56,230
现在Meta前向P约17.4

530
00:17:56,230 --> 00:17:58,269
若观察市场多数股票

531
00:17:58,269 --> 00:18:00,309
交易价在18至26区间

532
00:18:00,309 --> 00:18:02,289
通常我会考虑整体市场

533
00:18:02,289 --> 00:18:03,609
在20的P比率

534
00:18:03,609 --> 00:18:04,210
就是这样

535
00:18:04,210 --> 00:18:05,089
我这样思考

536
00:18:05,089 --> 00:18:06,730
我会关注像Meta这样的股票

537
00:18:06,730 --> 00:18:07,690
我会想

538
00:18:07,690 --> 00:18:08,490
好的

539
00:18:08,490 --> 00:18:10,329
这只股票正在交易

540
00:18:10,329 --> 00:18:12,430
可能略低于

541
00:18:12,430 --> 00:18:15,269
市场平均股票的价位

542
00:18:15,269 --> 00:18:16,109
这很有趣

543
00:18:16,109 --> 00:18:17,549
对了现在

544
00:18:17,549 --> 00:18:18,750
为什么这样做

545
00:18:18,750 --> 00:18:20,089
这是因为你知道的

546
00:18:20,089 --> 00:18:22,319
为什么Meta没有更高的P比率

547
00:18:22,319 --> 00:18:24,720
主要因为他们大量支出

548
00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:26,319
人们对此非常担忧

549
00:18:26,319 --> 00:18:30,359
公司计划今年投入约1400亿美元资本开支

550
00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:31,950
仅今年一年

551
00:18:31,950 --> 00:18:33,730
这些数字简直荒谬对吧

552
00:18:34,500 --> 00:18:37,220
市盈率越高越好对吧

553
00:18:37,220 --> 00:18:37,680
具体来说

554
00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:39,960
市盈率超过二十倍

555
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:42,349
所以记住这个二十倍数字

556
00:18:42,349 --> 00:18:44,650
市盈率超过二十倍

557
00:18:44,650 --> 00:18:46,730
未来增长潜力更好

558
00:18:46,730 --> 00:18:48,119
必须如此

559
00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:52,128
如果你有一家市盈率为

560
00:18:52,128 --> 00:18:56,628
未来几年毫无增长可能的公司

561
00:18:56,628 --> 00:18:58,028
你就有大问题了

562
00:18:58,028 --> 00:19:00,138
这份报告大概会大幅修正

563
00:19:01,390 --> 00:19:02,630
市盈率越高

564
00:19:02,630 --> 00:19:03,970
必须实现强劲增长

565
00:19:03,970 --> 00:19:06,309
假设你持有这只股票

566
00:19:06,309 --> 00:19:08,410
当前交易价为五四市盈率

567
00:19:08,410 --> 00:19:08,940
好的

568
00:19:08,940 --> 00:19:11,690
记住需要考虑的数字是二十

569
00:19:11,690 --> 00:19:14,009
这只股票远超这个水平对吧

570
00:19:14,009 --> 00:19:14,569
我们可以称它为

571
00:19:14,569 --> 00:19:16,369
这比二十高出百分之百五十

572
00:19:16,369 --> 00:19:17,690
大致如此

573
00:19:17,690 --> 00:19:19,670
所以五四市盈率的状况

574
00:19:19,670 --> 00:19:20,809
我应该这样思考

575
00:19:20,809 --> 00:19:21,849
这家公司需要

576
00:19:21,849 --> 00:19:27,049
未来三年至少实现每股收益两倍增长

577
00:19:27,049 --> 00:19:31,359
否则买入这只股票就是在被割韭菜

578
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,220
很多人在买入股票时都被割了韭菜

579
00:19:34,220 --> 00:19:36,059
你只是没拿到合理价格

580
00:19:36,059 --> 00:19:37,480
如果我无法

581
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:39,019
当我研究一家公司时

582
00:19:39,019 --> 00:19:39,859
我爱这家公司

583
00:19:39,859 --> 00:19:41,339
未来有巨大增长空间

584
00:19:41,339 --> 00:19:42,420
管理层非常优秀

585
00:19:42,420 --> 00:19:43,740
未来十年

586
00:19:43,740 --> 00:19:44,920
二十年前景光明

587
00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:45,339
没错

588
00:19:45,339 --> 00:19:46,799
这是五十四市盈率

589
00:19:46,799 --> 00:19:48,599
我的大脑已经开始

590
00:19:48,599 --> 00:19:49,700
他们必须实现增长

591
00:19:49,700 --> 00:19:51,319
如果我对这家公司做研究

592
00:19:51,319 --> 00:19:55,809
并预期未来三到四年每股收益三倍增长

593
00:19:55,809 --> 00:19:57,349
这只股票其实很划算

594
00:19:57,349 --> 00:19:58,750
这绝对是个好交易

595
00:19:58,750 --> 00:20:01,710
但如果我只预期两倍增长

596
00:20:01,710 --> 00:20:02,789
当我观察这只股票时

597
00:20:02,789 --> 00:20:03,869
市盈率是五四

598
00:20:03,869 --> 00:20:07,460
我觉得他们需要八年时间才能实现两倍增长

599
00:20:07,460 --> 00:20:08,059
我们有问题了

600
00:20:09,500 --> 00:20:11,039
因为需要八年时间

601
00:20:11,039 --> 00:20:13,180
只需降到两五倍

602
00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,039
当然除非他们回购大量股份之类的情况

603
00:20:16,039 --> 00:20:17,670
但我不想依赖这种可能

604
00:20:17,670 --> 00:20:21,430
所以你需要从这个角度开始分析

605
00:20:21,430 --> 00:20:22,470
记住这些数字

606
00:20:22,470 --> 00:20:24,569
我告诉你在二十倍市盈率时

607
00:20:24,569 --> 00:20:26,150
如果你低于这个价位

608
00:20:26,150 --> 00:20:29,619
想想是不是有陷阱

609
00:20:29,619 --> 00:20:31,480
如果你明显高于这个价位

610
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,859
他们未来必须有大幅增长才行

611
00:20:34,859 --> 00:20:36,640
如果我们看像AMD这样的公司

612
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:37,359
例如

613
00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:41,910
没错这正是混淆的典型例子

614
00:20:41,910 --> 00:20:43,289
这家公司估值非常高

615
00:20:43,289 --> 00:20:44,650
这家公司估值非常低

616
00:20:44,650 --> 00:20:45,349
对吧

617
00:20:45,349 --> 00:20:47,069
以AMD这样的公司为例

618
00:20:47,069 --> 00:20:49,849
现在其市盈率是77倍

619
00:20:49,849 --> 00:20:50,650
请记住

620
00:20:50,650 --> 00:20:53,420
AMD的增长率即将变得极其惊人

621
00:20:53,420 --> 00:20:56,500
所以四倍市盈率可能远低于这个数值

622
00:20:56,500 --> 00:21:00,130
因为分析师常在这种情况下判断失误

623
00:21:00,130 --> 00:21:02,740
对每股收益的预测过于保守

624
00:21:02,740 --> 00:21:04,779
这就是你需要提前考虑的因素

625
00:21:04,779 --> 00:21:05,019
好的

626
00:21:05,019 --> 00:21:06,339
我正在给你抛出金玉良言

627
00:21:06,339 --> 00:21:06,960
继续听下去

628
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:07,259
好的

629
00:21:07,259 --> 00:21:09,220
希望你们能记住这些内容

630
00:21:09,220 --> 00:21:11,099
如果需要回看这段视频

631
00:21:11,099 --> 00:21:11,859
请倒回去

632
00:21:11,859 --> 00:21:13,799
因为我们正在深入分析

633
00:21:13,799 --> 00:21:14,160
好的

634
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:19,119
通常当公司即将经历每股收益快速增长时

635
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,700
根据我十八年的股市经验

636
00:21:21,700 --> 00:21:26,239
分析师或会严重低估每股收益预测

637
00:21:26,239 --> 00:21:26,818
好的

638
00:21:26,818 --> 00:21:30,440
所以七十倍市盈率可能是假象

639
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:35,199
AMD的真实四倍市盈率可能五十倍

640
00:21:35,199 --> 00:21:37,818
或者四十五倍左右

641
00:21:37,818 --> 00:21:38,239
好的

642
00:21:38,239 --> 00:21:40,739
或许五十五倍七十七倍不太对

643
00:21:40,739 --> 00:21:42,990
但我们仍使用七十倍数据

644
00:21:42,990 --> 00:21:45,329
思考AMD时要意识到

645
00:21:45,329 --> 00:21:47,599
这远高于市场水平

646
00:21:47,599 --> 00:21:48,579
显然没错

647
00:21:48,579 --> 00:21:51,299
因为我们要考虑二十倍市盈率标准

648
00:21:51,299 --> 00:21:53,409
八十倍远超七十倍

649
00:21:53,409 --> 00:21:56,249
他们需要实现疯狂增长

650
00:21:56,249 --> 00:21:56,868
好吧

651
00:21:56,868 --> 00:22:00,929
AMD当前预计每股收益增长率为百分之百十六

652
00:22:00,929 --> 00:22:04,519
百分之三远超翻倍增长

653
00:22:04,519 --> 00:22:06,199
他们可能实现三倍增长

654
00:22:06,199 --> 00:22:07,638
甚至可能超过三倍增长

655
00:22:07,638 --> 00:22:09,480
就在今年内对吧

656
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:10,460
还记得我们之前讨论的

657
00:22:10,460 --> 00:22:11,740
如果你持有54美元的股票

658
00:22:11,740 --> 00:22:15,609
你需要在未来三年内将每股收益至少翻倍

659
00:22:15,609 --> 00:22:16,730
这家公司将会

660
00:22:16,730 --> 00:22:17,130
你知道的

661
00:22:18,490 --> 00:22:20,710
可能在一年内实现三倍增长

662
00:22:20,710 --> 00:22:22,299
对啊这太疯狂了

663
00:22:22,299 --> 00:22:26,579
接下来一年的每股收益增长率预计达百分之七十

664
00:22:26,579 --> 00:22:28,750
这些数字实在太高了

665
00:22:28,750 --> 00:22:31,210
这就是为什么人们仍在增持AMD

666
00:22:31,210 --> 00:22:33,009
尽管市盈率看起来很高

667
00:22:33,009 --> 00:22:36,109
这些数字将以惊人的速度增长

668
00:22:36,109 --> 00:22:37,269
它们将吞噬

669
00:22:37,269 --> 00:22:38,230
那个市盈率

670
00:22:38,230 --> 00:22:39,230
那个市盈率

671
00:22:39,230 --> 00:22:41,089
它们将在

672
00:22:41,089 --> 00:22:45,619
以远超预期的速度消化

673
00:22:45,619 --> 00:22:49,240
下一个阶段你需要做的是对公司进行预测

674
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:49,880
好的

675
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:53,689
所以我使用千禧x股票网运行所有预测

676
00:22:53,689 --> 00:22:56,528
并通过该平台生成中期预测

677
00:22:56,528 --> 00:22:57,288
这就是我现在展示的内容

678
00:22:57,288 --> 00:22:58,568
然后还有高级预测

679
00:22:58,568 --> 00:23:00,329
如果你想深入分析

680
00:23:00,329 --> 00:23:02,009
你知道的

681
00:23:02,009 --> 00:23:03,509
但我觉得

682
00:23:03,509 --> 00:23:04,009
你知道的

683
00:23:04,009 --> 00:23:08,660
最好在成长较慢的公司上练习预测

684
00:23:08,660 --> 00:23:11,640
而非高增长公司来评估估值

685
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,059
高增长公司更为复杂

686
00:23:14,269 --> 00:23:17,910
像美国运通这样的公司更容易处理

687
00:23:17,910 --> 00:23:20,630
对的当我分析美国运通时

688
00:23:20,630 --> 00:23:21,450
我会运行乐观情景

689
00:23:21,450 --> 00:23:22,849
基准情景和悲观情景

690
00:23:22,849 --> 00:23:27,440
对的以美国运通为例

691
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,799
在牛市情景下我预计其

692
00:23:29,799 --> 00:23:31,500
年收入可能增长百分之十

693
00:23:31,500 --> 00:23:33,640
净利润年增长百分之十五

694
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:35,890
如果能达到这样的增速

695
00:23:35,890 --> 00:23:38,640
鉴于其业务极其稳定

696
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,660
我认为30到35倍市盈率比较合理

697
00:23:41,660 --> 00:23:43,440
考虑到这样的增速

698
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,490
鉴于其稳定性

699
00:23:45,490 --> 00:23:46,670
因为你要

700
00:23:46,670 --> 00:23:49,769
你理解公司质量越高

701
00:23:49,769 --> 00:23:54,670
这意味着他们可以保留利润并持续在一段时间内稳定增长

702
00:23:54,670 --> 00:23:56,849
与他们竞争非常困难

703
00:23:56,849 --> 00:24:01,148
你愿意现在支付溢价

704
00:24:01,148 --> 00:24:01,749
你可以说

705
00:24:01,749 --> 00:24:02,669
他们是一家信用卡公司

706
00:24:02,669 --> 00:24:04,269
很多公司都可以做信用卡业务

707
00:24:04,269 --> 00:24:05,108
没错

708
00:24:05,108 --> 00:24:08,538
美国运通锁定客户群的方式是

709
00:24:08,538 --> 00:24:09,378
是什么让他们与众不同

710
00:24:09,378 --> 00:24:11,378
就像你可以看苹果公司并说

711
00:24:11,378 --> 00:24:11,598
嗯

712
00:24:11,598 --> 00:24:12,459
他们销售智能手机

713
00:24:12,459 --> 00:24:14,789
很多人都在卖智能手机对吧

714
00:24:14,789 --> 00:24:18,670
关键在于他们如何长期保留客户群

715
00:24:18,670 --> 00:24:20,630
一旦成为美国运通客户

716
00:24:20,630 --> 00:24:22,450
就会保持美国运通客户身份

717
00:24:22,450 --> 00:24:25,569
通常持续数年甚至数十年

718
00:24:25,569 --> 00:24:28,349
我们几年前成为美国运通客户

719
00:24:28,349 --> 00:24:31,269
这也是很自然的行为

720
00:24:31,269 --> 00:24:33,500
随着净资产增长且

721
00:24:33,500 --> 00:24:33,819
我

722
00:24:33,819 --> 00:24:33,900
我

723
00:24:33,900 --> 00:24:37,410
我看不出我们很快会离开美国运通

724
00:24:37,410 --> 00:24:40,750
一旦被他们的不同信用卡体系锁定

725
00:24:40,750 --> 00:24:42,369
几乎没有离开的理由

726
00:24:42,369 --> 00:24:43,990
很难脱离这个生态系统

727
00:24:43,990 --> 00:24:45,990
因为你从中获得大量福利

728
00:24:45,990 --> 00:24:48,750
没错这就是需要记住的关键点

729
00:24:48,750 --> 00:24:51,029
类似 Costco 这样的企业

730
00:24:51,029 --> 00:24:52,680
应该始终以溢价交易

731
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:54,519
Costco 不是普通零售商

732
00:24:54,519 --> 00:24:57,720
他们采用会员制模式需要付费入会

733
00:24:57,720 --> 00:24:59,440
一旦成为 Costco 会员

734
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:01,369
很难脱离对吧

735
00:25:01,369 --> 00:25:04,190
亚马逊的业务同样如此

736
00:25:04,190 --> 00:25:05,849
亚马逊的 Prime 会员服务

737
00:25:05,849 --> 00:25:08,289
以及他们的 AWS 业务部门

738
00:25:08,289 --> 00:25:11,210
一旦成为 Prime 会员

739
00:25:11,210 --> 00:25:14,849
未来很可能长期保持会员身份

740
00:25:14,849 --> 00:25:18,369
企业使用 AWS 服务后

741
00:25:18,369 --> 00:25:20,950
很可能会持续使用数十年

742
00:25:20,950 --> 00:25:21,430
在未来

743
00:25:21,430 --> 00:25:25,519
目前美国运通的基础预测显示收入增长8%

744
00:25:25,519 --> 00:25:25,999
平均而言

745
00:25:25,999 --> 00:25:27,699
净利润增长12%

746
00:25:27,699 --> 00:25:31,009
平均而言市盈率28-33倍

747
00:25:31,009 --> 00:25:31,990
没错我获得复利收益

748
00:25:31,990 --> 00:25:34,089
你的增长率在23%-28%之间

749
00:25:34,089 --> 00:25:34,630
不

750
00:25:36,049 --> 00:25:36,970
规模更小

751
00:25:36,970 --> 00:25:38,069
增长速度放缓

752
00:25:38,069 --> 00:25:39,659
收入增长5%

753
00:25:39,659 --> 00:25:41,278
净利润增长8%

754
00:25:41,278 --> 00:25:41,618
现在

755
00:25:41,618 --> 00:25:43,818
这就是我们要大幅降低P比率的地方

756
00:25:43,818 --> 00:25:45,460
现在我们谈到20到25倍

757
00:25:45,460 --> 00:25:49,420
为什么我要将其下调到市场通常交易水平附近呢

758
00:25:49,420 --> 00:25:54,078
因为这些是市场通常要求的增长率

759
00:25:54,078 --> 00:25:55,318
普通市场股票

760
00:25:55,318 --> 00:25:58,829
你可以将其视为5%收入增长类型的股票

761
00:25:58,829 --> 00:26:00,549
可能在净利润端有8%

762
00:26:00,549 --> 00:26:01,230
大概在这个区间

763
00:26:01,230 --> 00:26:02,670
大致在合理范围内

764
00:26:02,670 --> 00:26:06,200
这就是为什么我的P比率定在20倍

765
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:06,980
现在

766
00:26:06,980 --> 00:26:09,460
当我仍能获得非常不错的回报

767
00:26:09,460 --> 00:26:10,440
以美国运通为例

768
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:11,559
即使在最极端的情况下

769
00:26:11,559 --> 00:26:13,009
仍能获得9%的回报率

770
00:26:13,009 --> 00:26:14,170
复利增长率

771
00:26:14,170 --> 00:26:14,410
我意思是

772
00:26:14,410 --> 00:26:16,769
这就是P500应有的预期

773
00:26:16,769 --> 00:26:20,089
因此美国运通目前是个相当有吸引力的股票

774
00:26:20,089 --> 00:26:23,509
所以这就是当前的思考方式

775
00:26:23,509 --> 00:26:24,509
我们能变得灵活些

776
00:26:24,509 --> 00:26:27,529
我们之前讨论过美光科技和内存芯片公司等

777
00:26:27,529 --> 00:26:29,930
这些公司今年将赚取巨额利润

778
00:26:29,930 --> 00:26:31,179
明年也将如此

779
00:26:31,179 --> 00:26:32,338
这些是棘手的案例

780
00:26:32,338 --> 00:26:33,618
当你看像美光这样的股票

781
00:26:33,618 --> 00:26:35,490
市盈率12倍

782
00:26:35,490 --> 00:26:39,990
观察美光当前年度每股收益增长率

783
00:26:39,990 --> 00:26:43,740
758%

784
00:26:43,980 --> 00:26:46,640
758%

785
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:51,409
这看起来像是人类历史上最好的股票投资

786
00:26:51,409 --> 00:26:52,288
因为它仅以福特的市盈率

787
00:26:52,288 --> 00:26:52,749
市盈率12倍

788
00:26:52,749 --> 00:26:54,588
却有758%的年增长率

789
00:26:54,588 --> 00:26:55,048
预期

790
00:26:55,048 --> 00:26:55,548
你知道的

791
00:26:55,548 --> 00:26:56,539
每股收益增长率

792
00:26:56,539 --> 00:26:57,980
当前年度预期收入增长率

793
00:26:57,980 --> 00:26:59,619
268%

794
00:26:59,619 --> 00:27:01,089
以12倍市盈率

795
00:27:01,089 --> 00:27:02,809
这看起来好得不像真实

796
00:27:02,809 --> 00:27:04,490
这应该是一家5万亿美元公司

797
00:27:04,490 --> 00:27:06,679
对吧，甚至更大

798
00:27:06,679 --> 00:27:08,019
问题在于

799
00:27:08,019 --> 00:27:12,459
没人相信美光目前的状况能长期持续

800
00:27:12,459 --> 00:27:15,919
因此他们不愿意支付这种程度的费用

801
00:27:15,919 --> 00:27:18,078
如果你认为这种状况能长期维持

802
00:27:18,078 --> 00:27:21,529
就像你认为美光还能持续增长

803
00:27:21,529 --> 00:27:24,170
你知道如果认为高

804
00:27:24,170 --> 00:27:28,740
内存价格会持续大幅上涨

805
00:27:28,740 --> 00:27:29,859
而纳米价格也会如此

806
00:27:29,859 --> 00:27:33,799
那么你可能愿意轻松支付这笔犯罪费用

807
00:27:33,799 --> 00:27:35,180
我乐意购买

808
00:27:35,180 --> 00:27:38,990
但人们会提前一步行动

809
00:27:38,990 --> 00:27:43,109
没错他们在经历这次繁荣后

810
00:27:43,109 --> 00:27:49,638
DRAM价格和纳米价格很可能下跌

811
00:27:49,638 --> 00:27:51,519
这可不是好事

812
00:27:51,519 --> 00:27:54,739
没错这就是讨论每股收益时

813
00:27:54,739 --> 00:27:56,220
增长方向相反

814
00:27:56,220 --> 00:27:57,279
这很不有趣

815
00:27:57,279 --> 00:27:59,680
因此不要被误导

816
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:00,799
不要只看福特

817
00:28:00,799 --> 00:28:01,799
P哦十二

818
00:28:01,799 --> 00:28:02,839
他们增长强劲

819
00:28:02,839 --> 00:28:03,839
轻易买入不

820
00:28:03,839 --> 00:28:04,920
并非如此

821
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:06,579
对周期性公司不适用

822
00:28:06,579 --> 00:28:10,420
这也是为什么在周期性公司中需牢记

823
00:28:10,420 --> 00:28:13,440
周期性公司中还有一个宝物

824
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,210
通常最危险的买入时机

825
00:28:16,210 --> 00:28:19,269
周期性公司当市盈率看起来极低时

826
00:28:19,269 --> 00:28:20,430
非常低

827
00:28:20,430 --> 00:28:22,619
尤其是低于十倍时

828
00:28:22,619 --> 00:28:25,420
这意味着这些公司正处于繁荣期

829
00:28:25,420 --> 00:28:28,099
他们正在赚取巨额利润

830
00:28:28,269 --> 00:28:29,609
最佳买入时机

831
00:28:29,609 --> 00:28:31,430
听起来如此反直觉

832
00:28:31,430 --> 00:28:33,349
但这就是周期性公司的运作方式

833
00:28:33,349 --> 00:28:35,309
周期性公司过热时

834
00:28:35,309 --> 00:28:37,480
当市盈率高得惊人时

835
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,319
当市盈率达到

836
00:28:40,319 --> 00:28:43,079
像八十或一百这样的周期性公司

837
00:28:43,079 --> 00:28:47,539
通常意味着其业务经历了严酷的下行周期

838
00:28:47,539 --> 00:28:51,230
周期性企业通常会复苏

839
00:28:51,230 --> 00:28:52,630
几年后

840
00:28:52,630 --> 00:28:54,970
转眼他们赚得盆满钵满

841
00:28:54,970 --> 00:28:56,470
这就是起伏周期

842
00:28:56,470 --> 00:28:59,309
现在有人认为这次内存周期

843
00:28:59,309 --> 00:29:01,109
这次会有所不同且

844
00:29:01,109 --> 00:29:01,769
你知道

845
00:29:01,769 --> 00:29:02,250
嗯

846
00:29:02,250 --> 00:29:03,250
我们拭目以待

847
00:29:03,250 --> 00:29:04,039
你知道这个

848
00:29:04,039 --> 00:29:05,619
他们总说这次不同

849
00:29:05,619 --> 00:29:07,259
结果往往一样

850
00:29:07,259 --> 00:29:09,039
所以这只是要记住的一点

851
00:29:09,039 --> 00:29:09,359
好的

852
00:29:09,359 --> 00:29:11,940
希望你从估值部分收获了很多

853
00:29:11,940 --> 00:29:13,349
好的，在讨论ELF股票之前

854
00:29:13,349 --> 00:29:19,279
现在千乘X有两个特定教育板块要和大家分享

855
00:29:19,279 --> 00:29:22,200
尤其是即将获得七月四日千乘销售的你们

856
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:24,690
这个是如何估值分红股票

857
00:29:24,690 --> 00:29:25,930
一定要看看这个

858
00:29:25,930 --> 00:29:27,609
会详细解释很多内容

859
00:29:27,609 --> 00:29:29,049
如果你喜欢这段视频内容

860
00:29:29,049 --> 00:29:30,470
我们刚才讲过那里

861
00:29:30,470 --> 00:29:31,609
你会非常喜欢那个

862
00:29:31,609 --> 00:29:35,429
还有这个是如何估值成长型股票

863
00:29:35,429 --> 00:29:36,669
里面价值满满

864
00:29:36,669 --> 00:29:37,949
整个教育板块

865
00:29:37,949 --> 00:29:39,108
基础期权策略

866
00:29:39,108 --> 00:29:40,169
高级期权策略

867
00:29:40,169 --> 00:29:41,670
合理利润率

868
00:29:41,670 --> 00:29:42,670
代码是如何运作的

869
00:29:42,670 --> 00:29:43,349
损益表

870
00:29:43,349 --> 00:29:44,009
现金流量表

871
00:29:44,009 --> 00:29:44,829
SWOT分析

872
00:29:44,829 --> 00:29:45,650
资产负债表

873
00:29:45,650 --> 00:29:47,250
所有这些内容都非常有价值

874
00:29:47,250 --> 00:29:48,589
当你获得这次销售

875
00:29:48,589 --> 00:29:49,630
当价格下跌时

876
00:29:49,630 --> 00:29:52,309
务必查看教育板块内容

877
00:29:52,309 --> 00:29:53,509
你会从中获得巨大价值

878
00:29:53,509 --> 00:29:55,079
这简直太棒了

879
00:29:55,079 --> 00:29:55,859
接下来这里

880
00:29:55,859 --> 00:29:57,660
ELF小精灵

881
00:29:57,660 --> 00:30:00,700
聊聊即将到账的百元收入

882
00:30:00,700 --> 00:30:01,079
好的

883
00:30:01,079 --> 00:30:03,000
首先

884
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:06,220
我在ELF上选时简直太糟糕了

885
00:30:06,220 --> 00:30:09,339
不知道我是擅长ELF股票还是

886
00:30:09,339 --> 00:30:11,440
或者只是运气好

887
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:13,369
但看看我的持仓

888
00:30:13,369 --> 00:30:14,569
我在公开账户中持有

889
00:30:14,569 --> 00:30:16,509
显然我2019年买入的这批

890
00:30:16,509 --> 00:30:18,289
以7美元28美分购入

891
00:30:18,289 --> 00:30:20,460
但最近我又买入了一批

892
00:30:20,460 --> 00:30:23,579
我大幅提升了ELF的成本基准

893
00:30:23,579 --> 00:30:25,000
我终于做到了

894
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:27,819
我几乎以最低点买入ELF

895
00:30:27,819 --> 00:30:30,519
六月五日以4.909美元

896
00:30:30,519 --> 00:30:31,720
简直难以置信

897
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:33,819
这批已获得4.2%的收益

898
00:30:33,819 --> 00:30:35,240
但看起来收益不多

899
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:36,980
这批有860%的涨幅

900
00:30:36,980 --> 00:30:40,390
好的，最近由一个精灵启动的Patreon投资组合

901
00:30:40,390 --> 00:30:43,269
这些已经上涨了大约十七个百分点

902
00:30:43,269 --> 00:30:43,650
呃

903
00:30:43,650 --> 00:30:45,349
我的盟友投资组合

904
00:30:45,349 --> 00:30:47,940
我持有约四分之一百万美元仓位

905
00:30:47,940 --> 00:30:51,380
在这个仓位上已获利四万二千美元

906
00:30:51,380 --> 00:30:53,859
今天这里单日上涨约九千美元

907
00:30:53,859 --> 00:30:55,700
这个仓位的成本是五十八

908
00:30:55,700 --> 00:30:57,980
这实际上是我最大的

909
00:30:57,980 --> 00:30:58,579
是的

910
00:30:58,579 --> 00:31:00,539
这是我最大的精灵持仓，仅一个

911
00:31:00,539 --> 00:31:02,559
我在盟友投资组合中持有

912
00:31:02,559 --> 00:31:06,259
同时也在持有CHASE投资组合的股份

913
00:31:06,259 --> 00:31:06,990
这是一只

914
00:31:06,990 --> 00:31:08,589
那里还有一个六位数仓位

915
00:31:08,589 --> 00:31:10,950
一百零四万美元，已上涨27%

916
00:31:10,950 --> 00:31:12,789
这些股票上涨了两万二千元

917
00:31:12,789 --> 00:31:14,650
精灵是只股票

918
00:31:14,650 --> 00:31:15,109
我总是

919
00:31:15,109 --> 00:31:15,609
嗯

920
00:31:15,609 --> 00:31:18,230
在时机把握上做得相当不错

921
00:31:18,230 --> 00:31:20,460
当股价跌破一百美元时

922
00:31:20,460 --> 00:31:21,700
我的意思是这只股票

923
00:31:21,700 --> 00:31:23,599
必须尽可能多地买入股份

924
00:31:23,599 --> 00:31:25,789
如果你现在相信这家公司

925
00:31:25,789 --> 00:31:27,529
关于精灵股价

926
00:31:27,529 --> 00:31:27,950
好的

927
00:31:27,950 --> 00:31:29,950
这显示过去三个月

928
00:31:29,950 --> 00:31:31,130
股价上涨14%

929
00:31:31,130 --> 00:31:34,089
但关于精灵的有趣之处

930
00:31:34,089 --> 00:31:36,720
显然股价经历了明确的崩盘

931
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:38,240
像水晶般清晰的底部

932
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:40,420
这不是可疑的底部

933
00:31:40,420 --> 00:31:40,980
你会说

934
00:31:40,980 --> 00:31:41,579
我不确定

935
00:31:41,579 --> 00:31:42,940
是否真的见底了

936
00:31:42,940 --> 00:31:44,079
存在清晰的底部

937
00:31:44,079 --> 00:31:44,719
好的

938
00:31:44,719 --> 00:31:46,439
这里显示的这波复苏

939
00:31:46,439 --> 00:31:48,038
这波复苏可能存在疑问

940
00:31:48,038 --> 00:31:48,398
因为

941
00:31:48,398 --> 00:31:48,558
是的

942
00:31:48,558 --> 00:31:49,549
没有那么极端

943
00:31:49,549 --> 00:31:50,369
这种极端

944
00:31:50,369 --> 00:31:50,670
是的

945
00:31:50,670 --> 00:31:51,549
我们已经触底

946
00:31:51,549 --> 00:31:51,950
精灵现在

947
00:31:51,950 --> 00:31:52,750
在当前时间节点

948
00:31:52,750 --> 00:31:54,470
这是一个清晰的底部

949
00:31:54,470 --> 00:31:57,549
关于精灵在未来六个月到十二个月

950
00:31:57,549 --> 00:32:00,839
我认为这只股票现在正重返过去十二个月的高点

951
00:32:00,839 --> 00:32:02,039
如果我们回顾过去十二个月的表现

952
00:32:02,039 --> 00:32:04,980
该股票一直在120到140美元区间波动

953
00:32:04,980 --> 00:32:07,279
因此我认为未来六到十二个月内会回到这个区间

954
00:32:07,279 --> 00:32:10,440
我预计很快就会突破一百美元大关

955
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:11,740
当然不是每天如此

956
00:32:11,740 --> 00:32:12,759
可能是每周或每月

957
00:32:12,759 --> 00:32:14,460
接下来会持续上涨没错吧

958
00:32:14,460 --> 00:32:19,219
但整体趋势将是长期向上

959
00:32:19,219 --> 00:32:21,179
至少就我个人观点而言关于ELF

960
00:32:21,179 --> 00:32:22,519
没错我非常了解这只股票

961
00:32:22,519 --> 00:32:23,759
关于ELF股票的特点

962
00:32:23,759 --> 00:32:27,480
必须深入理解基本面和所有动态

963
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:29,638
就ELF股价而言

964
00:32:29,638 --> 00:32:30,558
这是一只股票

965
00:32:30,558 --> 00:32:32,618
当处于下行周期时

966
00:32:32,618 --> 00:32:33,699
简直惨不忍睹啊

967
00:32:33,699 --> 00:32:38,539
绝对惨烈且持续下跌

968
00:32:38,539 --> 00:32:41,519
但当股价上涨时

969
00:32:41,519 --> 00:32:43,279
走势会非常迅猛

970
00:32:43,279 --> 00:32:46,818
这种波动极具戏剧性

971
00:32:46,818 --> 00:32:48,979
比如四个月内股价翻倍

972
00:32:48,979 --> 00:32:50,179
你会看到

973
00:32:50,179 --> 00:32:51,179
啊

974
00:32:51,179 --> 00:32:52,499
ELF怎么突然大涨了

975
00:32:52,499 --> 00:32:54,219
四个月就翻倍了

976
00:32:54,219 --> 00:32:57,670
但你可能错过了之前四个月暴跌50%的阶段

977
00:32:57,670 --> 00:32:59,710
这就是ELF的独特之处

978
00:32:59,710 --> 00:33:01,869
双向波动都极其剧烈

979
00:33:01,869 --> 00:33:05,470
但接下来我们将迎来更多上涨趋势

980
00:33:05,470 --> 00:33:06,170
而非下跌

981
00:33:06,170 --> 00:33:07,789
长期来看

982
00:33:07,789 --> 00:33:09,950
我相信ELF股价将突破两百美元

983
00:33:09,950 --> 00:33:11,079
所以

984
00:33:11,079 --> 00:33:12,700
即使股价达到一百美元以上

985
00:33:12,700 --> 00:33:14,359
如果在未来三到六个月实现

986
00:33:14,359 --> 00:33:16,990
我认为仍有更大的上涨空间

987
00:33:16,990 --> 00:33:17,829
目前

988
00:33:17,829 --> 00:33:18,069
另外

989
00:33:18,069 --> 00:33:18,650
请记住

990
00:33:18,650 --> 00:33:21,150
密歇根消费者信心指数已见底

991
00:33:21,150 --> 00:33:25,778
当前正处于底部并开始回升，核心观点是

992
00:33:25,778 --> 00:33:26,759
就此事而言

993
00:33:26,759 --> 00:33:30,378
我认为消费者信心将在未来一到两年显著改善

994
00:33:30,378 --> 00:33:31,970
在未来十二到二十四个月内

995
00:33:31,970 --> 00:33:34,359
再次强调

996
00:33:34,359 --> 00:33:35,000
当然

997
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:36,599
消费者信心不会每月都上涨

998
00:33:36,599 --> 00:33:39,160
但未来两年的整体趋势

999
00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:40,039
我相信将是上升的

1000
00:33:40,039 --> 00:33:41,480
向右看消费者信心指数

1001
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:45,449
向右看，这将大幅利好消费相关股票

1002
00:33:45,449 --> 00:33:48,909
好的，艾尔夫公司首当其冲，明年将大幅受益

1003
00:33:48,909 --> 00:33:51,779
或者耐克，另一只被低估的股票

1004
00:33:51,779 --> 00:33:54,019
我认为它在未来一年将大幅受益

1005
00:33:54,019 --> 00:33:57,059
或者欧莱雅，再举一个例子

1006
00:33:57,059 --> 00:33:58,619
就连 lululemon 股价

1007
00:33:58,619 --> 00:34:00,539
我认为已占据有利地位将获益

1008
00:34:00,539 --> 00:34:02,220
它们肯定不是我最看好的公司

1009
00:34:02,220 --> 00:34:03,460
我更看好耐克

1010
00:34:03,460 --> 00:34:04,900
其股价在未来几年有望上涨

1011
00:34:04,900 --> 00:34:08,139
但作为长期持有标的，五年十年

1012
00:34:08,139 --> 00:34:09,559
但我不意外

1013
00:34:09,559 --> 00:34:14,730
如果 lululemon 在未来一两年见势上涨，甚至目标股也会受益

1014
00:34:14,730 --> 00:34:16,349
当消费者信心严重低迷时

1015
00:34:16,349 --> 00:34:17,730
没人愿意持有塔吉特

1016
00:34:17,730 --> 00:34:19,690
但当消费者信心持续改善时

1017
00:34:19,690 --> 00:34:22,108
很多人会涌入塔吉特股票

1018
00:34:22,108 --> 00:34:23,469
与沃尔玛截然不同

1019
00:34:23,469 --> 00:34:23,869
沃尔玛

1020
00:34:23,869 --> 00:34:25,728
人们几乎会无差别持有

1021
00:34:25,728 --> 00:34:26,829
塔吉特则完全不同

1022
00:34:26,829 --> 00:34:28,148
他们只在特定时机持有

1023
00:34:28,148 --> 00:34:30,128
当消费者信心回升时

1024
00:34:30,128 --> 00:34:33,360
另一个受益者是旅游股

1025
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,480
当消费者信心持续改善时

1026
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:38,619
旅游股定能捕捉到上涨势头

1027
00:34:38,619 --> 00:34:40,248
所以你看

1028
00:34:40,248 --> 00:34:43,608
我认为消费者信心在未来几年将回升

1029
00:34:43,608 --> 00:34:46,028
将大幅利好这些被低估的股票

1030
00:34:46,028 --> 00:34:48,958
这些长期低迷的股票

1031
00:34:48,958 --> 00:34:49,739
除了持续下跌

1032
00:34:49,739 --> 00:34:50,719
这类股票有很多

1033
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:53,079
这些股票在2021年已见顶

1034
00:34:53,079 --> 00:34:56,860
没错，在整个通胀周期中损害了消费者

1035
00:34:56,860 --> 00:35:00,039
这些股票一路下跌

1036
00:35:00,039 --> 00:35:02,440
如果观察趋势

1037
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:06,349
几乎所有都在去年或今年见底

1038
00:35:06,349 --> 00:35:07,110
当前时间节点

1039
00:35:07,110 --> 00:35:09,530
未来将迎来大幅上涨

1040
00:35:09,530 --> 00:35:11,650
对于这类公司而言

1041
00:35:11,650 --> 00:35:14,869
至于接下来几周

1042
00:35:14,869 --> 00:35:15,489
好了，注意

1043
00:35:15,489 --> 00:35:18,090
显然7月4日将迎来千亿美元销售

1044
00:35:18,090 --> 00:35:22,900
没错，财报季真正从7月开始

1045
00:35:22,900 --> 00:35:25,079
比如7月12或13日左右

1046
00:35:25,079 --> 00:35:27,539
届时将密集发布财报

1047
00:35:27,539 --> 00:35:30,579
然后7月20周还将公布更多财报

1048
00:35:30,579 --> 00:35:34,210
但真正疯狂的财报季在

1049
00:35:34,210 --> 00:35:39,059
七月二十七日及八月首周

1050
00:35:39,059 --> 00:35:39,860
哦，天啊

1051
00:35:39,860 --> 00:35:40,440
好的

1052
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:43,980
到时候会有许多大型报告同时涌入

1053
00:35:43,980 --> 00:35:45,079
希望你们已经准备好应对了

1054
00:35:45,079 --> 00:35:47,159
我会随时更新最新动态

1055
00:35:47,159 --> 00:35:48,480
所有收益相关的疯狂事

1056
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:50,860
但接下来会非常忙碌

1057
00:35:50,860 --> 00:35:54,639
我可以告诉你们，我很快就要去度假了

1058
00:35:54,639 --> 00:35:58,960
之后我会全力准备财报季

1059
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:00,599
因为接下来会非常疯狂

1060
00:36:00,599 --> 00:36:01,000
好的

1061
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:03,599
感谢大家一如既往地收看

1062
00:36:03,599 --> 00:36:03,980
再说一次

1063
00:36:03,980 --> 00:36:04,940
想要那个千单销售

1064
00:36:04,940 --> 00:36:06,559
就在下方评论区

1065
00:36:06,559 --> 00:36:09,079
带你提升到当前水平的更高层次

1066
00:36:09,079 --> 00:36:11,780
获取市面上最好的软件

1067
00:36:11,780 --> 00:36:14,929
以及千x教育板块的所有内容

1068
00:36:14,929 --> 00:36:15,610
还有啊

1069
00:36:15,610 --> 00:36:18,809
如果你不了解千x的各项功能

1070
00:36:18,809 --> 00:36:20,449
立即点击下方置顶评论

1071
00:36:20,449 --> 00:36:22,059
点赞支持一下

1072
00:36:22,059 --> 00:36:22,340
我意思是

1073
00:36:22,340 --> 00:36:23,820
差不多二十分钟的视频

1074
00:36:23,820 --> 00:36:24,900
展示所有内容

1075
00:36:24,900 --> 00:36:26,219
获得千x访问权限

1076
00:36:26,219 --> 00:36:27,119
你会大吃一惊

1077
00:36:27,119 --> 00:36:27,820
天啊

1078
00:36:27,820 --> 00:36:29,179
我必须完成这个销售

1079
00:36:29,179 --> 00:36:31,280
大家喜欢就好，祝你们有个美好一天

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