Ai硬件大跌根本原因

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最近追高存储还有AI硬件的兄弟

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体验肯定不好啊

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因为短短的几天啊

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就过去半年一年的利润全部亏没了

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实际上在前几天的视频啊

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就是美国发财报之前啊

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我也发了很多提醒

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就是不便宜了

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高估了那很多兄弟呢就说你唱衰啊

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你自己有美光

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你怎么还啊

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唱衰其实呢是这样哈

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存储肯定是好公司啊

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存储也是个增长很快的行业

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但高估和好公司呢他不矛盾

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高估是什么

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你短期像那个闪迪啊啊之类的

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一年翻个五倍十倍

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但你的业绩啊很难持续保持这个增速

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大家呢买股票买的是未来啊

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未来现金流嘛

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你赚了钱你都投进去了

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像美光似的2000亿美金建个厂啊

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今年总共赚个1000多亿哈

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一个季度300亿

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1200个亿

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对不对

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那你等你两三年之后建成了

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你发现个问题

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就是产能可能就过剩了啊

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所以东西的需求就没那么快了

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这第一个第二个呢就是手机和电脑

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内存呢明显的需求不足了

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我也跟VIVOOPPO啊

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包括其他的品牌的都缴股

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今年上半年下滑30%起啊

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我们30起啊

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像小米都腰斩了

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对你看我之前分析小米的视频吧

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就是你涨价带的结果是卖不动消费者不买了

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你就问问身边的人

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你知道了呀

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但是你想想吧

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这个现在三星还是美国对吧

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把这一些DDR的内存全部匀给了这个HBM

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但问题是DDDR的需求严重下滑

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严重

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想要导致结果是什么呢

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哼其他的

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像国内的这种长期存储的产能在继续扩张

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所以相当于说你赖以生存的最基础的业务啊

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持续100年的业务就没了

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但是持续中心能持续多少年

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你不知道

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那这个也是市场比较恐慌的原因啊

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第三个原因呢就是卖塔突出创利

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其实meta这个事出售算力这个事影响并不大啊

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他不是说需求没了

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它需求还在涨

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但是他一说出售算力之后

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股价大涨啊

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让其他的人学到甜头了

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你也知道哎呀

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硅谷的这些CEO呢也没有那么长远

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也是股价导向

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这些都是股东吧

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都是职业进的人

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谁不希望自己的股份涨得快呀

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一看哦

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嘿嘿苹果硬刚这个美国国家大涨哈

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然后meta呢是吧

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这个硬钢数据中心

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说实话

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那国家的微软不会吗

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马上发财报了

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是不是谷歌不会吗

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马上发财报了

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甲骨文亚马逊他都会学会了

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那现在硅谷整个就两件事

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第一是吧剩余的山地出租哈

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第二裁员

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第三呢哈哈这个业业务支出指引降低

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你可你可以看一下

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接下来他们肯定都会这么干对吧

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那大家发现这个事是有好处的对吧

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那大家买账

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因为所有人担心的是你投入过大

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你在折旧

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还有这个资本开支面前

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你怎么样怎么样平衡这个支出问题啊

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其实不是说数据中心需求量减少了

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AI的需求量反而变大了

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AI的现在占有率也不高

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但是如果说税中心的这种业绩支出的业务啊

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资本支出的那种速度降低

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拉长战线

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那这个市场呢他就不会出现挤兑哈

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那目前是因为需求极度爆发导致的

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而不是说需求永远满足不了

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就这个呢就是存储啊

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高端的硬件下跌的一个核心逻辑啊

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当然了

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我们在分析的时候

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更多的还是通过回本周期是吧

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比如我们买消费也好

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互联网也好

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AI硬件也好

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首先呢基于便宜哈美观

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我买的时候200多块钱啊

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修不住就100多块钱暂离中间啊清掉了

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但是呢实话实说啊

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看不到5年十年就是我们买赚那个钱呢

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纯运气就是因为买买的时候便宜哈哈哈

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然后呢毛估估增长很快

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但是一旦涨上来之后

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过了800块之后

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一直在提醒说不便宜的不便宜的

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后面好多人骂啊

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投诉啊

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举报啊

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实际上没有必要

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因为去年在分析新能源汽车的时候

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也是很多人投诉骂举报

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没有必要举报

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你看看这个逻辑是不是这样的

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因为既然你是赌趋势

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那你但趋势不好的时候

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你也得接受

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是不是你既然赌的是不确定

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对未来不确定

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对现金流

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那你也得接受啊

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这种所有的啊合理性

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所以实际上我们不看车AI

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就像我呢在这种啊暴跌的时候

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反而呢啊做一些集团策略啊

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反而会啊再加大一些嗯仓位配置啊

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因为毕竟比毕竟来讲

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在这个今年非常适合这种清线策略啊

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我也给这个员兄弟们讲了很多啊

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齐天客啊之类的

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实际上这个策略其实很好用

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因为今年呢他这种情绪化很严重啊

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然后呢这个博弈性很强

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AI和其他的哈碳基硅基AI和其他博弈性很强

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这个时候反而是最好的一个期权策略机会啊

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年化四五十%

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就是这种行情下啊

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当然你还可以把这个啊这个毛估估的估值

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干到二三十倍的时候

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都有这么高的回报率

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所以说明什么呢

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说明这个市场的分歧是很大的

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但同时呢很多人呢他不会玩这个行业

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就是实际上所有人都看好的时候

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一定要小心啊啊特别是宝妈呀

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然后呢这个啊不是这个行业从业者呀

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然后对这个投资义务投资的人啊

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都看好的时候

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这个时候市场肯定进入一个疯狂阶段了

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无论是黄金白银啊

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还是这些乱七八糟的行业

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都无一例外哈

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就是投资上赚钱的人很少

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要不就是行业专业人士啊

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从业很多年的啊

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要不就是公司内部的这些高管

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原始股老板啊

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或者说天使轮那些投资人

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他们容易是吧

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信息很准

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散户说说心里话

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就拿AI我经常讲我们小区里面啊

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AAMD的英特尔的也没拿住

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翻倍都走了

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都错过了后面的五倍十倍

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因为他们也不相信说我们公司的产品不变

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你凭什么股价翻十倍

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他们也看不懂

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所以这个也是一个现实的问题啊

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就是得理性一点是吧

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然后避免情绪啊

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情绪来的时候呢是吧

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你言言又齐全呢

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隐藏波动率很高

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所以呢实际上在这个市场里面呢啊

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你从一个局外者啊

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你不要盯着市场

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天天盯着股价啥意思

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你要接受不同的声音啊

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就像我天天啊讲这个公式的估值啊

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讲这个啊股股东回报啊

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包括这个按货币

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周一的时候好多人嘲笑你啊

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老登其实我去年在讲到这个蜜雪冰城啊

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老布黄金啊

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包括跑马特的时候

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我也讲过

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结果都打两折了

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你看我去年的视频啊

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如果还在的话呢

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就是你可以验证一下啊

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当时的处于高位的时候

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从那个点到现在已经打了个两三折了

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更注重的还是他的业务长期性

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就商业模式啊

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股东分红啊

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还有能不能10年左右回本的

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就这种逻辑

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但是呢你如果说你看半年一年的话

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你又做不到落袋为安

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这个钱啊

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大概率都会退回去的

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