老登和小登本质区别

1
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小波啊

2
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为什么现在只要不买AI的人都被称为老灯

3
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没有他们错过了一个牛市牛市

4
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所以他们很生气

5
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他们就他们就成为老登了

6
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嘿嘿嘿嘿

7
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错过牛市就老小灯

8
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那如果说现在价值投资和过去的价值投资

9
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你觉得有什么本质区别吗

10
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现在开始分了啊

11
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嘿嘿嘿

12
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以前不分老登是吧

13
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你说的太对了

14
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在没有AI之前啊

15
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大家投资那都追寻的是巴菲特和格雷厄姆的投资理念

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对价值投资

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比如说先做估值

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然后再分析安全边际

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再分析护城河

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OK然后现在呢直接就是不买AI

21
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那你觉得AI的回报率一定是这么高吗

22
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对AI的回报率

23
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你只要买了AI都能赚大钱吗

24
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不是实际上买AI这些人啊

25
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也是分个别的公司

26
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也不是每个工程赚大钱

27
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那比如讲啊

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比如说你在去年买的存储

29
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无论是闪迪镁光

30
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三星海力士

31
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你肯定十倍了嘛

32
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但是问题是你也可能亏钱呀

33
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比如你今天买的微软是吧

34
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你买的亚马逊你也挣不到钱

35
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它也是AI行业

36
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它也是云

37
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实际上也不是说每一个AI公司他都能让你赚钱

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但实际上老的和小的女的本质区别是什么呀

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咱举个例子

40
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比如去年上半年的时候

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那个时候大家不买这个蜜雪冰城

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不买泡泡玛特啊

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不买这个老铺黄金的

44
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但是你知道现在那些公司市值多少吗

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比如泡马特阅兵车

46
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你打几折了吗

47
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我才五折两折啊

48
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那问题来了

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那为什么去年的时候那些公式都是十倍股

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为什么今年就下来了

51
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估值又变成了十倍左右了

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去年能到50倍到100倍

53
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为什么今年估值又下来了呢

54
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因为现在没人买了

55
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小灯的热度就这么这么低吗

56
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对啊小灯就很容易见异思迁啊

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但你觉得AI这个行业能持续多久啊

58
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能持续很久没错

59
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实际上呢我跟老登小灯没有本质的区别啊

60
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但是呢你要是在买这个股票的时候

61
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你的理念确实要变一下

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小东的核心是什么呢

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就是你的增速要快

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但是持久性要能不能强

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这个不好说

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但以前老农呢他买商业模式成熟的

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利润稳定的现金流好的传统龙头

68
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那小灯呢就成长快是吧

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创新驱动快速扩张

70
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老邓过去的时候呢就是看估值是吧

71
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估值比较低啊

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分红比较好

73
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小东呢对吧

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比如说沃尔玛

75
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沃尔玛从零到1万亿

76
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你都用了多长时间吗

77
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只能用50年没错

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但你知道它的GBT还有20多

79
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配合到1万也用了几年吗

80
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55年没错

81
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只用了老登十名的时间

82
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也就说每个人都想买SWIT5

83
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每个人都希望在这个行业里面快速挣钱

84
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老东更容易理解

85
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因为小东呢他在这个事没有发生之前

86
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是不是很难判断啊

87
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是不是老小东的风险更大一点

88
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但如果说你要懂了小曾

89
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你是不是赚钱很快啊

90
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对那如果你的技术被突破了呢

91
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比如说小灯鼓

92
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你今天买了啊

93
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咱随便说啊

94
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车里一杯就上市了

95
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那如果再好的大模型替代它

96
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那他会不会崩盘的更快啊

97
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会你比如说中国的两个大模型啊

98
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比如这么的呀啊还有就是那个一个是mini max啊

99
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一个是这个二手

100
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一个是那个字谱

101
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你知道mini max现在打了几折了吗

102
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从高点到现在一折吧

103
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差不多一到两折了啊

104
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你看他也是小灯

105
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他也短短期翻了十倍

106
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他为什么用了半个月

107
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不到一个月就就就就跌下来了

108
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为什么呢

109
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因为我觉得他把他的股票玩崩了啊

110
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嘿嘿嘿

111
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就是他的技术被别人给超越了

112
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所以小灯呢最怕的是什么

113
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就是你的产品竞争力不足就更好了

114
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没得了啊

115
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就像我们上次拍那个呃WOR那个COSTAL视频嗯

116
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他们都怕他们偷怕那个COSTCO

117
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他们学会自己品牌

118
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把他们踢走

119
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然后把自己盖成自COSTCO的品牌

120
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没错

121
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小灯他就说你能不能看懂它的增长的持续性

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如果你能看到这个公司

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它能保持每年十倍的增长

124
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能持续10年

125
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你会不会买它

126
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会对呀

127
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但是你觉得买小动物的人有几个能够判断它增长持续性的

128
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能能能看懂吗

129
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他们你觉得能没错

130
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实际上每个人都在压住这个行业趋势

131
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对不对

132
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但这个趋势能持续多久

133
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没有人知道

134
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所以你买小盾鼓你要注意什么

135
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不要被别人反超

136
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对的你你要买这个产品

137
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公司要有技技术

138
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那如果你知道他这个技术护城河会被别人替代

139
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你是不是要学会卖呀

140
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注意要注意不要你比如说你刚才去查吉特塔吉特沃尔玛超市狗

141
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你看同样都是老动作啊

142
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也不要他们都是怕

143
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不要有人都不买它了

144
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嘿嘿就是你的商业模式也得与时俱进

145
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比如说哎现在生鲜高不够是吧

146
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还有这些会员制起来之后

147
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如果你不参与这个品类

148
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是不是你慢慢也成为老邓了

149
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那老灯呢如果说你不变革

150
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有可能会被社会淘汰

151
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对不对

152
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所以实际上这个时代投资啊

153
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部分为老东西的小灯

154
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主要是你懂还是不懂

155
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第二个你能不能判断他未来的现金流

156
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还能不能看到这个回报率

157
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如果你判断对了

158
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那你永远可以拿到四倍比

159
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对不对对

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