BV1wPMb6kED3 · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,200 男孩 2 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:00,700 哦，男孩 3 00:00:00,700 --> 00:00:06,780 现在是时候讨论另一个可能翻倍并开市的IPO了 4 00:00:06,780 --> 00:00:09,300 而在那之后呢 5 00:00:09,300 --> 00:00:11,259 我们必须谈谈这个 6 00:00:11,259 --> 00:00:14,830 但让我们确保充分了解 7 00:00:14,830 --> 00:00:18,370 现在我们要讨论即将上市的大型IPO 8 00:00:18,370 --> 00:00:21,859 周五我们需要回顾一些最后的电话会议 9 00:00:21,859 --> 00:00:24,179 我们最近进行的一次电话会议是 10 00:00:24,179 --> 00:00:25,989 IPO项目是Cerebrs 11 00:00:25,989 --> 00:00:29,589 事实上我制作了一段名为《警惕Cerebrs IPO》的视频 12 00:00:29,589 --> 00:00:32,390 在其中我提到 13 00:00:32,390 --> 00:00:36,140 接下来的收入将会逐渐消失 14 00:00:37,219 --> 00:00:42,990 这在我看来有点像是拉高出货 15 00:00:42,990 --> 00:00:46,740 哦，我对这只股票略显看空 16 00:00:46,740 --> 00:00:47,840 总之 17 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:50,890 不仅我对这只股票略显看空 18 00:00:50,890 --> 00:00:53,270 我认为我们完全有理由看空 19 00:00:53,270 --> 00:00:57,539 这只股票开盘价为386美元 20 00:00:57,539 --> 00:01:01,060 现在价格回落至198美元 21 00:01:01,060 --> 00:01:02,979 你可以查看我们上次做的完整分析 22 00:01:02,979 --> 00:01:04,329 这已经下跌了约半数 23 00:01:04,329 --> 00:01:09,810 今天我们将分析下一个热门IPO 24 00:01:09,810 --> 00:01:10,430 但那个 25 00:01:10,430 --> 00:01:10,909 当然 26 00:01:10,909 --> 00:01:15,159 当然在提及SpaceX之前 27 00:01:15,159 --> 00:01:15,939 我们说 28 00:01:15,939 --> 00:01:18,079 如果以135美元买入 29 00:01:18,079 --> 00:01:18,900 你会获得配额 30 00:01:18,900 --> 00:01:19,420 好吧 31 00:01:19,420 --> 00:01:20,079 买入吧 32 00:01:20,079 --> 00:01:20,879 如果你之前持有 33 00:01:20,879 --> 00:01:25,730 我运营的这家顶级风投公司此前也获得了SpaceX配额 34 00:01:25,730 --> 00:01:27,150 所以我们正在投资 35 00:01:27,150 --> 00:01:28,230 仍然持有锁定期 36 00:01:28,230 --> 00:01:28,700 好的 37 00:01:28,700 --> 00:01:29,900 我们明确表示 38 00:01:29,900 --> 00:01:30,819 如果你之前持有 39 00:01:30,819 --> 00:01:32,019 你应该没问题 40 00:01:32,019 --> 00:01:34,620 但否则流通量实在太低 41 00:01:34,620 --> 00:01:36,040 预计会暴涨 42 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:38,079 然后逐步回落，我的 43 00:01:38,079 --> 00:01:38,540 哦 44 00:01:38,540 --> 00:01:41,000 看看这波暴涨和回落 45 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:41,918 啊 46 00:01:42,438 --> 00:01:43,039 总之 47 00:01:43,039 --> 00:01:47,239 重点是IPO确实很有趣 48 00:01:47,239 --> 00:01:50,039 因为它们是大额资金收割 49 00:01:50,039 --> 00:01:54,879 而IPO通常设计为流通量极低以推高股价 50 00:01:54,879 --> 00:01:59,349 这正是我们接下来要讨论的内容 51 00:01:59,349 --> 00:02:04,640 我的意思是，下周即将登场的太空领域新巨头 52 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:07,750 现在就是SK海力士 53 00:02:07,750 --> 00:02:11,150 SK海力士已经在韩国证券市场上市 54 00:02:11,150 --> 00:02:14,560 但尚未在美国市场开放投资 55 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:18,960 因此很多人非常兴奋SK海力士即将上市 56 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:20,740 更全面的架构 57 00:02:20,740 --> 00:02:22,280 AI内存 58 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:22,879 宝贝 59 00:02:22,879 --> 00:02:23,500 是的 60 00:02:23,500 --> 00:02:25,699 我们更需要这个 61 00:02:26,908 --> 00:02:30,769 毕竟美光科技绝对表现抢眼 62 00:02:30,769 --> 00:02:31,308 呃 63 00:02:31,308 --> 00:02:35,990 闪迪公司（西部数据分拆）同样表现卓越 64 00:02:35,990 --> 00:02:40,659 但最近几周开始让市场感到困惑 65 00:02:40,659 --> 00:02:43,240 时机可能并不意外 66 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:47,860 就在SpaceX吸金热潮兴起后 67 00:02:47,860 --> 00:02:50,759 我注意到内存板块出现了一些峰值 68 00:02:50,759 --> 00:02:52,479 这可能只是暂时现象 69 00:02:52,479 --> 00:02:56,860 但美光股价已从高点下跌25% 70 00:02:56,860 --> 00:03:01,389 而闪迪也下跌约24% 71 00:03:01,389 --> 00:03:04,389 大概因为他们意识到即将迎来IPO 72 00:03:04,389 --> 00:03:10,139 SK海力士市值将达SpaceX的三分之一 73 00:03:10,139 --> 00:03:11,460 所以你可能会想 74 00:03:11,460 --> 00:03:11,659 哦 75 00:03:11,659 --> 00:03:12,180 只是 76 00:03:12,180 --> 00:03:12,659 你知道的 77 00:03:12,659 --> 00:03:14,680 又一个小IPO吧 78 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:16,240 这规模相当惊人 79 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:18,139 相当于SpaceX的三分之一 80 00:03:18,139 --> 00:03:22,900 而SpaceX已创下全球最大IPO纪录 81 00:03:22,900 --> 00:03:24,699 预计募集资金超两 82 00:03:24,699 --> 00:03:25,979 90亿美元 83 00:03:25,979 --> 00:03:27,580 许多人想知道 84 00:03:27,580 --> 00:03:28,250 凯文 85 00:03:28,250 --> 00:03:34,409 这是否是估值合理、值得入场的内存股 86 00:03:34,810 --> 00:03:35,169 嗯 87 00:03:35,169 --> 00:03:37,150 首先我们来分析 88 00:03:37,150 --> 00:03:42,110 美光科技的估值并不算高 89 00:03:42,110 --> 00:03:44,990 如果按其他公司标准评估 90 00:03:44,990 --> 00:03:47,270 通常我们评估公司价值的方法是 91 00:03:47,270 --> 00:03:50,169 关注今年末的盈利数据 92 00:03:50,169 --> 00:03:52,909 不考虑过去财报或历史业绩 93 00:03:52,909 --> 00:03:54,990 我们预计今年末的盈利水平 94 00:03:54,990 --> 00:03:58,259 然后从该点预测公司未来增长 95 00:03:58,259 --> 00:04:02,080 从而判断估值是否合理 96 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:03,580 与其他公司相比 97 00:04:03,580 --> 00:04:04,699 例如 98 00:04:04,699 --> 00:04:05,870 Palantir 99 00:04:05,870 --> 00:04:09,830 估值约为SpaceX的一半 100 00:04:09,830 --> 00:04:10,789 这意味着 101 00:04:10,789 --> 00:04:12,129 像帕兰提尔这样的公司 102 00:04:12,129 --> 00:04:17,910 或者这些软件股的收益可能比像SpaceX这样的公司高出一倍 103 00:04:17,910 --> 00:04:20,750 当然还有更多收益更丰厚的公司 104 00:04:20,750 --> 00:04:27,689 但这段视频的重点是关注内存和美光科技看起来相对便宜 105 00:04:27,689 --> 00:04:29,529 相比整个行业组合 106 00:04:29,529 --> 00:04:36,009 美光科技现在看起来可能比帕兰提尔更便宜 107 00:04:36,009 --> 00:04:38,199 为什么呢？这是内存概念股 108 00:04:38,199 --> 00:04:42,939 为什么它的股价会低于像帕兰提尔这样的公司 109 00:04:42,939 --> 00:04:45,800 为什么像闪迪这样的公司可能在下跌 110 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:47,019 如果确实如此 111 00:04:47,300 --> 00:04:48,600 我们稍后在 112 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:48,980 呃 113 00:04:48,980 --> 00:04:49,279 呃 114 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:49,500 抱歉 115 00:04:49,500 --> 00:04:51,579 稍后在K Heinex图表中分析 116 00:04:51,740 --> 00:04:53,160 美光股价下跌 117 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:56,160 因为市场开始定价 118 00:04:56,160 --> 00:05:01,060 未来四年增长可能不会稳定 119 00:05:01,060 --> 00:05:06,680 如果假设美光当前分析师预期正确 120 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:10,800 那么美光未来四年增长将非常强劲 121 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:13,259 你完全不必担心估值 122 00:05:13,259 --> 00:05:14,949 因为它价格低廉 123 00:05:14,949 --> 00:05:19,389 但你知道假设的前提假设一切正确 124 00:05:19,389 --> 00:05:21,529 你知道这个笑话我们不用深入 125 00:05:21,529 --> 00:05:25,649 但美光当前估值约为9倍市盈率 126 00:05:25,649 --> 00:05:26,990 这非常便宜 127 00:05:26,990 --> 00:05:31,899 暗示其估值内置了2.5倍增长预期 128 00:05:32,100 --> 00:05:35,699 但前提是增长不会转负 129 00:05:35,699 --> 00:05:41,220 而SK海力士即将展示问题在展示SK海力士问题前 130 00:05:41,220 --> 00:05:43,149 但你需要了解这张图表 131 00:05:43,149 --> 00:05:45,889 标普智胜最近发布了这张图表 132 00:05:45,889 --> 00:05:50,259 表明内存短缺可能被过度供应 133 00:05:50,259 --> 00:05:51,759 我们目前处于过剩状态 134 00:05:51,759 --> 00:05:56,759 在产能利用率百分比超过100%的充足率比率中 135 00:05:56,759 --> 00:05:59,300 没错内存行业的核心点在于 136 00:05:59,300 --> 00:06:00,600 让我先回顾一下 137 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:02,410 因为刚才用了很多专业术语 138 00:06:02,649 --> 00:06:05,209 芯片制造公司 139 00:06:05,209 --> 00:06:07,389 雇佣大量高技能工人 140 00:06:07,389 --> 00:06:07,769 你知道的 141 00:06:07,769 --> 00:06:09,449 当你看到芯片工厂的照片时 142 00:06:09,449 --> 00:06:11,420 他们都穿着防护装备 143 00:06:11,420 --> 00:06:11,939 你知道的 144 00:06:11,939 --> 00:06:14,009 不要和PPP贷款混淆 145 00:06:14,009 --> 00:06:17,110 我说的是那些白色防护服和口罩 146 00:06:17,110 --> 00:06:17,610 好的 147 00:06:17,610 --> 00:06:19,089 这些人技术精湛 148 00:06:19,089 --> 00:06:20,050 他们并非只是 149 00:06:20,050 --> 00:06:20,730 你知道的 150 00:06:20,730 --> 00:06:22,970 工厂里的按钮操作员 151 00:06:22,970 --> 00:06:24,269 他们在一个工厂里 152 00:06:24,269 --> 00:06:25,470 但他们技术娴熟 153 00:06:25,470 --> 00:06:26,810 按钮操作员 154 00:06:26,810 --> 00:06:28,829 你想保持这些人就业 155 00:06:28,829 --> 00:06:31,189 因为你不想花钱重新培训这些人 156 00:06:31,189 --> 00:06:31,709 这是事实 157 00:06:31,709 --> 00:06:34,509 对所有芯片公司而言 158 00:06:34,509 --> 00:06:35,610 制造企业 159 00:06:37,009 --> 00:06:37,689 不同于英伟达 160 00:06:37,689 --> 00:06:38,970 它只设计芯片 161 00:06:38,970 --> 00:06:40,189 这简直难以想象 162 00:06:40,189 --> 00:06:43,038 但问题在于 163 00:06:43,038 --> 00:06:45,838 如果你没有足够的订单维持生产 164 00:06:45,838 --> 00:06:46,778 就得让他们回家 165 00:06:46,778 --> 00:06:48,199 然后他们去寻找新工作 166 00:06:48,199 --> 00:06:52,089 所以你要保持工厂满负荷运转 167 00:06:52,089 --> 00:06:53,889 充足率比为零 168 00:06:53,889 --> 00:06:59,360 在这种情况下相当于满负荷 169 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:00,160 如你所见 170 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:02,199 目前我们处于不足状态 171 00:07:02,199 --> 00:07:04,639 这意味着生产线非常繁忙 172 00:07:04,639 --> 00:07:08,259 但我们无法满足市场需求 173 00:07:08,259 --> 00:07:08,579 没错 174 00:07:08,579 --> 00:07:11,250 理想情况下供应要匹配需求 175 00:07:11,250 --> 00:07:12,529 所以达到百分之百 176 00:07:12,529 --> 00:07:13,250 呃 177 00:07:13,250 --> 00:07:13,970 产能 178 00:07:13,970 --> 00:07:15,389 所以百分之百供应 179 00:07:15,389 --> 00:07:17,350 百分之百需求完美 180 00:07:17,350 --> 00:07:18,209 大家都很愉快 181 00:07:18,209 --> 00:07:19,459 达到了平衡 182 00:07:19,459 --> 00:07:21,319 如果需求过多 183 00:07:21,319 --> 00:07:23,240 因此充足率过低 184 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:26,180 供应不足价格飙升 185 00:07:26,180 --> 00:07:28,259 这就是当前的情况 186 00:07:28,259 --> 00:07:29,839 价格已经暴涨 187 00:07:29,839 --> 00:07:31,579 当我提到暴涨时 188 00:07:31,579 --> 00:07:33,000 我是说 189 00:07:33,519 --> 00:07:34,180 疯狂了 190 00:07:34,180 --> 00:07:35,949 比如三到四倍 191 00:07:35,949 --> 00:07:40,290 我们在这些营收或数字增长上实现了倍增 192 00:07:40,290 --> 00:07:40,730 事实上 193 00:07:40,730 --> 00:07:43,629 查看美光最近财报 194 00:07:43,629 --> 00:07:47,050 你会说这家公司拥有全球最强的定价权 195 00:07:47,050 --> 00:07:51,509 看DRAM产品销售额增长67% 196 00:07:51,509 --> 00:07:55,470 主要因价格在低位上涨 197 00:07:55,470 --> 00:07:56,879 约60% 198 00:07:56,879 --> 00:07:57,779 换句话说 199 00:07:57,779 --> 00:08:01,600 我们DRAM产品仅小幅增加 200 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:03,120 环比增长 201 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,000 DRAM产品的价格在低到中等个位数 202 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:11,959 我们提高了DRAM产品的价格约67%，并进一步小幅提价 203 00:08:11,959 --> 00:08:16,168 将NAND产品价格提高了约85% 204 00:08:16,168 --> 00:08:17,548 这是环比数据 205 00:08:17,548 --> 00:08:18,608 所以在一个季度内 206 00:08:18,608 --> 00:08:19,949 从Q1到Q2 207 00:08:19,949 --> 00:08:22,209 他们提高了价格约 208 00:08:22,209 --> 00:08:22,869 你知道的 209 00:08:22,869 --> 00:08:24,800 60%到80% 210 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:26,160 同比来看 211 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:30,029 他们提价3到4倍 212 00:08:30,029 --> 00:08:33,169 这些价格涨幅简直惊人 213 00:08:33,169 --> 00:08:37,149 这反映了当前的供应短缺 214 00:08:37,149 --> 00:08:41,110 问题是彭博社已经提醒我们 215 00:08:41,110 --> 00:08:43,049 这种情况可能不会持续 216 00:08:43,049 --> 00:08:44,809 但我们早已预料到 217 00:08:44,809 --> 00:08:46,370 为什么我们早已知道 218 00:08:46,370 --> 00:08:53,690 因为我们知道这些公司正在大幅扩产 219 00:08:53,759 --> 00:08:56,139 这确实是个问题 220 00:08:56,139 --> 00:08:56,759 事实上 221 00:08:56,759 --> 00:08:57,240 昨天 222 00:08:57,240 --> 00:09:04,039 我们制作了一期关于美光扩产的深度视频 223 00:09:04,039 --> 00:09:07,559 这涉及到通胀与通缩的争论 224 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:10,370 我们在比较凯瑟琳·伍德与TS Lombard的观点 225 00:09:10,370 --> 00:09:11,529 在其中 226 00:09:11,529 --> 00:09:17,549 我们提到美光预计产能将增加50%至50% 227 00:09:17,549 --> 00:09:18,269 达到100% 228 00:09:18,269 --> 00:09:20,129 大约是翻倍 229 00:09:20,129 --> 00:09:21,379 嗯 230 00:09:21,779 --> 00:09:27,009 因为他们正在建设大量新工厂 231 00:09:27,009 --> 00:09:29,110 这些工厂预计将在年内投产 232 00:09:29,110 --> 00:09:31,470 2027年中期在爱达荷州 233 00:09:31,470 --> 00:09:32,870 2027年在新加坡 234 00:09:32,870 --> 00:09:33,450 2024年底 235 00:09:33,450 --> 00:09:34,740 2028年中期在爱达荷州 236 00:09:34,740 --> 00:09:35,980 2028年下半年 237 00:09:35,980 --> 00:09:36,740 新加坡 238 00:09:36,740 --> 00:09:38,259 2028年台湾 239 00:09:38,259 --> 00:09:41,539 2030年纽约的首个四厂 240 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:43,609 这就是美光 241 00:09:44,048 --> 00:09:45,109 SK海力士 242 00:09:45,109 --> 00:09:46,208 或许你会想 243 00:09:46,208 --> 00:09:47,489 也许它们不同 244 00:09:47,489 --> 00:09:52,429 也许不会大幅增加供应 245 00:09:52,429 --> 00:09:57,250 可能继续限制供应保持紧张 246 00:09:57,250 --> 00:09:57,789 呃 247 00:09:57,789 --> 00:09:58,470 不 248 00:09:58,470 --> 00:10:00,190 SK海力士并无二致 249 00:10:04,899 --> 00:10:05,659 事实上 250 00:10:05,659 --> 00:10:06,080 管理 251 00:10:14,309 --> 00:10:18,789 他们通过预计2033年完工的韩国设施来实现这一目标 252 00:10:18,789 --> 00:10:20,269 这个项目还有时间推进 253 00:10:20,269 --> 00:10:20,830 他们刚刚开始 254 00:10:20,830 --> 00:10:21,990 他们计划明年启动该项目 255 00:10:21,990 --> 00:10:23,409 他们甚至还没开始这个项目 256 00:10:23,409 --> 00:10:28,360 他们预计其中一个扩建项目将顺利完成 257 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:30,200 刚刚完成了M单元 258 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:33,259 15X扩建项目已于2021年第一季度完成 259 00:10:33,259 --> 00:10:37,840 先进制造或封装业务将于2027年底投产 260 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:42,120 NAND闪存工厂将于2029年上半年建成 261 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:46,039 印第安纳州先进封装工厂将于2028年上半年投产 262 00:10:46,039 --> 00:10:49,929 随后西南地区综合体也将启动 263 00:10:49,929 --> 00:10:52,269 时间待定，暂且不论 264 00:10:54,289 --> 00:10:55,700 这有什么影响 265 00:10:56,059 --> 00:10:58,340 我们本该讨论股价上涨 266 00:10:58,340 --> 00:11:01,820 却在讨论存储芯片供应增加 267 00:11:01,820 --> 00:11:02,899 我们该怎么办 268 00:11:02,899 --> 00:11:03,620 到底怎么回事 269 00:11:03,620 --> 00:11:05,740 理清楚思路吧 270 00:11:07,500 --> 00:11:12,500 每次查看存储公司风险因素时 271 00:11:12,500 --> 00:11:14,339 几乎可以肯定 272 00:11:14,339 --> 00:11:20,058 在摘要和风险因素中，首要列出的风险就是 273 00:11:20,058 --> 00:11:21,500 风险因素摘要 274 00:11:21,500 --> 00:11:22,679 风险因素总结 275 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:23,840 我现在无法获取 276 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:24,620 但 277 00:11:24,620 --> 00:11:27,149 我会找到它，首要风险 278 00:11:27,149 --> 00:11:29,850 他们通常给出的风险因素 279 00:11:29,850 --> 00:11:32,399 就是存储行业 280 00:11:32,399 --> 00:11:32,679 确实如此 281 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:34,919 这个行业确实具有周期性 282 00:11:34,919 --> 00:11:37,839 几乎总是首当其冲 283 00:11:37,839 --> 00:11:38,418 存储行业 284 00:11:38,418 --> 00:11:41,839 半导体行业受周期性波动影响 285 00:11:41,839 --> 00:11:46,708 2023年微米技术亏损数十亿美元 286 00:11:46,708 --> 00:11:52,369 因为销售存储芯片价格低于生产成本 287 00:11:52,369 --> 00:11:54,109 为什么要这么做 288 00:11:54,109 --> 00:11:58,190 不想失去那些穿白大褂的员工 289 00:11:58,190 --> 00:12:00,309 所以维持工厂运转 290 00:12:00,309 --> 00:12:02,029 继续生产存储芯片 291 00:12:02,029 --> 00:12:04,269 即使每件都在亏损 292 00:12:04,269 --> 00:12:06,129 这种做法简直疯狂 293 00:12:06,129 --> 00:12:06,889 没错 294 00:12:06,889 --> 00:12:11,500 我们认为SK海力士是否不同 295 00:12:12,100 --> 00:12:13,399 这才是关键问题 296 00:12:13,399 --> 00:12:16,830 三星是否不同呢 不 297 00:12:16,830 --> 00:12:20,049 2023年他们的销售成本也转负 298 00:12:20,049 --> 00:12:21,759 这是他们的损益表 299 00:12:21,759 --> 00:12:23,539 这显示他们花费了三 300 00:12:23,539 --> 00:12:29,590 三万亿比索创造了三两万亿的营收 301 00:12:31,629 --> 00:12:31,950 呃 302 00:12:31,950 --> 00:12:32,750 这就是给你看的 303 00:12:32,750 --> 00:12:35,654 这展示了内存业务的周期性 304 00:12:35,659 --> 00:12:39,860 而三星Hynix最大的问题 305 00:12:39,860 --> 00:12:44,299 不仅是他们的利润率逊于美光 306 00:12:44,299 --> 00:12:44,940 他们 307 00:12:44,940 --> 00:12:45,460 呃 308 00:12:45,460 --> 00:12:45,899 利润率 309 00:12:45,899 --> 00:12:46,179 他们 310 00:12:46,179 --> 00:12:47,899 他们的毛利率约有60% 311 00:12:47,899 --> 00:12:48,909 这相当不错 312 00:12:48,909 --> 00:12:49,389 你知道的 313 00:12:49,389 --> 00:12:50,250 别误会我 314 00:12:50,250 --> 00:12:53,850 每百美元毛利润赚取60% 315 00:12:53,850 --> 00:12:54,710 这相当不错 316 00:12:54,710 --> 00:12:54,950 你 317 00:12:54,950 --> 00:12:55,840 你现在处于 318 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:56,259 你知道的 319 00:12:56,259 --> 00:12:58,360 苹果和微软的毛利率水平 320 00:12:58,360 --> 00:12:59,940 还没达到英伟达的水平 321 00:12:59,940 --> 00:13:00,879 但这些都很不错 322 00:13:00,879 --> 00:13:01,600 不是净利润 323 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:02,789 毛利率 324 00:13:02,909 --> 00:13:03,490 呃 325 00:13:03,490 --> 00:13:04,090 美光 326 00:13:04,090 --> 00:13:07,549 但他们有不错的利润率 327 00:13:07,549 --> 00:13:10,450 美光的最新毛利率为84.5% 328 00:13:10,450 --> 00:13:12,289 4.5% 329 00:13:12,289 --> 00:13:15,509 这意味着这家公司的毛利率比三星Hynix高出 330 00:13:15,509 --> 00:13:20,289 4.5个百分点 331 00:13:20,289 --> 00:13:25,610 因此实际上在利润率上优于三星Hynix 332 00:13:25,610 --> 00:13:27,850 非常 impressive 333 00:13:28,490 --> 00:13:30,730 从预测来看 334 00:13:30,730 --> 00:13:32,350 这也是大问题 335 00:13:32,350 --> 00:13:36,070 三星Hynix的市场预测 336 00:13:36,070 --> 00:13:41,879 与美光不同，已基本预示未来四年增长持平 337 00:13:41,879 --> 00:13:44,639 尽管这是ADR 338 00:13:44,639 --> 00:13:46,440 即美国存托凭证 339 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:51,259 本质上只是外国上市的委婉说法 340 00:13:51,259 --> 00:13:53,620 这里情况会变得复杂 341 00:13:53,620 --> 00:13:59,159 截至年底的预计每股收益为207美元 342 00:13:59,159 --> 00:14:04,700 但ADR仅相当于韩国三星Hynix股票的十分之一 343 00:14:04,700 --> 00:14:07,000 需将收益除以十 344 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:10,039 预计年底将实现20.75美元收益 345 00:14:10,039 --> 00:14:12,299 当前华尔街预测 346 00:14:12,299 --> 00:14:13,840 这意味着它们 347 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:15,000 当前华尔街预测 348 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:15,360 你知道吗 349 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:18,179 如果他们最终股价定在每股约166美元 350 00:14:18,179 --> 00:14:20,120 这意味着市盈率仅为约8倍 351 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:23,750 市盈率在6到8倍之间 352 00:14:23,750 --> 00:14:25,029 每股收益可能相当 353 00:14:25,029 --> 00:14:26,328 他们会离开 354 00:14:26,489 --> 00:14:31,789 但华尔街已经为他们定价的增速基本持平 355 00:14:31,789 --> 00:14:33,230 我们看到4 356 00:14:33,230 --> 00:14:33,809 6个百分点 357 00:14:33,809 --> 00:14:35,350 明年增长1.1% 358 00:14:35,350 --> 00:14:36,070 7个百分点 359 00:14:36,070 --> 00:14:36,730 7% 360 00:14:36,730 --> 00:14:37,710 下一年 361 00:14:37,710 --> 00:14:39,009 下降30% 362 00:14:39,009 --> 00:14:41,389 下一年再降23% 363 00:14:41,389 --> 00:14:41,750 呃 364 00:14:41,750 --> 00:14:42,230 21.9% 365 00:14:42,230 --> 00:14:45,360 之后增长9% 366 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:46,840 未来四年平均增长1.6% 367 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:50,119 如果我处于1% 368 00:14:50,119 --> 00:14:51,178 6%的增速 369 00:14:51,178 --> 00:14:52,879 而市盈率是8倍 370 00:14:52,879 --> 00:14:53,578 或者抱歉 371 00:14:53,578 --> 00:14:56,269 我的市盈率是8倍 372 00:14:56,269 --> 00:14:58,830 如果用8除以1% 373 00:14:58,830 --> 00:15:01,700 这相当于8倍市盈率 374 00:15:01,700 --> 00:15:05,240 现在非常昂贵 375 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:08,879 这意味着股票会下跌因为SpaceX曾很贵 376 00:15:08,879 --> 00:15:10,419 不 377 00:15:10,419 --> 00:15:18,039 因为流通股仅占总股本2.5% 378 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:20,480 在市场流通待售 379 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:23,710 比例很小 380 00:15:23,710 --> 00:15:27,250 SpaceX当时是4.1% 381 00:15:27,250 --> 00:15:28,330 嗯空间 382 00:15:28,330 --> 00:15:28,850 嗯 383 00:15:28,850 --> 00:15:29,590 SK海力士 384 00:15:29,590 --> 00:15:33,860 尽管主要公司持有约2 385 00:15:33,860 --> 00:15:37,568 5%归母公司所有 386 00:15:37,568 --> 00:15:41,308 若将2.5%除以0.7 387 00:15:41,308 --> 00:15:42,308 95 388 00:15:42,308 --> 00:15:46,509 这意味着实际流通股为31 389 00:15:46,509 --> 00:15:47,950 4% 390 00:15:47,950 --> 00:15:49,799 这是一个饼状流通股 391 00:15:49,919 --> 00:15:50,919 嗯 392 00:15:50,919 --> 00:15:51,720 数学笑话 393 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:51,919 抱歉 394 00:15:51,919 --> 00:15:53,500 其实挺蠢的 395 00:15:53,500 --> 00:15:54,360 所以约3.4% 396 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:54,799 4% 397 00:15:54,799 --> 00:15:58,269 他们的流通股将低于SpaceX 398 00:15:58,269 --> 00:16:01,870 这意味着要记住SpaceX发生的事情 399 00:16:01,870 --> 00:16:04,990 当然我们记得SpaceX发生的事情 400 00:16:04,990 --> 00:16:07,730 他们大量融资只因仅有一项 401 00:16:07,730 --> 00:16:12,779 仅1%的流通股非常低，现在人们都想参与 402 00:16:12,779 --> 00:16:14,120 这不是SpaceX 403 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:16,019 这是一家记忆公司 404 00:16:16,019 --> 00:16:17,679 所以公平地说 405 00:16:17,679 --> 00:16:18,879 它将会交易 406 00:16:18,879 --> 00:16:21,328 大概会与美光和铠侠同步 407 00:16:21,328 --> 00:16:23,989 大量资金涌入旧金山的美光 408 00:16:23,989 --> 00:16:27,969 其中部分人想将部分资金分配给SK海力士 409 00:16:27,969 --> 00:16:30,210 因此他们可能会减持美光和SK海力士 410 00:16:30,210 --> 00:16:32,730 这也是股价跌至25的原因 411 00:16:32,730 --> 00:16:35,340 因动量放缓且交易者退出 412 00:16:35,340 --> 00:16:36,399 动量逐渐减弱 413 00:16:36,399 --> 00:16:39,019 交易者退出以实现多元化 414 00:16:39,019 --> 00:16:39,919 接下来会发生什么 415 00:16:39,919 --> 00:16:40,419 你知道的 416 00:16:40,419 --> 00:16:40,799 那个那个 417 00:16:40,799 --> 00:16:43,120 动量走势开始反转 418 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:45,230 或者市场终于意识到 419 00:16:45,230 --> 00:16:45,909 啊糟糕 420 00:16:45,909 --> 00:16:48,289 我们可能无法大幅增长这些公司 421 00:16:48,289 --> 00:16:56,100 因为产能扩张巨大而需求不会无限增长 422 00:16:56,620 --> 00:16:58,779 埃隆·马斯克说过后大家应该都明白 423 00:16:58,779 --> 00:16:59,100 我的意思是 424 00:16:59,100 --> 00:17:01,519 通常当公司宣称需求无限时 425 00:17:01,519 --> 00:17:03,220 或行业声称需求无限时 426 00:17:03,220 --> 00:17:04,328 这往往是顶部信号 427 00:17:04,328 --> 00:17:09,009 埃隆·马斯克在2021年特斯拉定价高峰时 428 00:17:09,009 --> 00:17:10,229 特斯拉股价 429 00:17:10,229 --> 00:17:15,049 他曾告诉我们特斯拉的需求基本无限 430 00:17:15,049 --> 00:17:18,690 结果完全错误 431 00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:25,500 现在我们听说内存公司尤其是铠侠 432 00:17:25,500 --> 00:17:26,809 让我理清楚 433 00:17:27,130 --> 00:17:31,609 SK海力士预计需求峰值将在2033年 434 00:17:31,609 --> 00:17:32,089 他们表示 435 00:17:32,089 --> 00:17:37,960 而美光认为供应永远无法与需求相交 436 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:38,839 换句话说 437 00:17:38,839 --> 00:17:39,720 尽管他们 438 00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:40,240 你知道的 439 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:41,779 正在大幅扩产 440 00:17:41,779 --> 00:17:45,380 但他们不认为产能会与需求交汇 441 00:17:45,380 --> 00:17:46,859 这其实是在说 442 00:17:46,859 --> 00:17:47,099 哦 443 00:17:47,099 --> 00:17:50,380 需求远超生产能力 444 00:17:51,660 --> 00:17:53,839 这不像说 445 00:17:53,839 --> 00:17:55,900 内存需求无限 446 00:17:56,309 --> 00:17:58,430 但这是最接近的表述 447 00:17:58,430 --> 00:18:01,589 我必须承认这些人的观点 448 00:18:02,900 --> 00:18:07,259 这些韩国人稍微保守一点 449 00:18:07,648 --> 00:18:11,739 然后是埃隆·马斯克，好吧不管怎样 450 00:18:11,739 --> 00:18:14,719 他们预计要筹集二十亿美元 451 00:18:14,719 --> 00:18:15,898 他们可能会行使绿鞋期权 452 00:18:15,898 --> 00:18:18,180 他们可能还会适度扩大规模 453 00:18:18,180 --> 00:18:20,859 公司显然在大量投入资金 454 00:18:20,859 --> 00:18:21,319 呃 455 00:18:21,319 --> 00:18:23,329 他们的工厂扩建 456 00:18:23,329 --> 00:18:27,390 因此他们拥有自由现金流两六万亿 457 00:18:27,390 --> 00:18:30,128 这相当于约十七亿美元 458 00:18:30,128 --> 00:18:31,028 这相当不错 459 00:18:31,028 --> 00:18:32,949 该公司2025年的现金流 460 00:18:32,949 --> 00:18:34,329 呃 461 00:18:34,329 --> 00:18:34,809 你知道的 462 00:18:34,809 --> 00:18:37,210 大约是即将IPO融资的三分之二 463 00:18:37,210 --> 00:18:39,750 他们将在此次IPO中赚得盆满钵满 464 00:18:39,750 --> 00:18:40,029 是的 465 00:18:40,029 --> 00:18:41,920 我们将迎来资金流动的改善 466 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:44,140 尤其是因为他们实际上 467 00:18:44,140 --> 00:18:44,619 呃 468 00:18:44,619 --> 00:18:45,720 在去年这一年 469 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,000 他们实际上通过净借款来偿还 470 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,220 支付股息并非大幅增加 471 00:18:50,220 --> 00:18:51,519 但他们处于净借款状态 472 00:18:51,519 --> 00:18:55,339 他们在2024年偿还了债务 473 00:18:55,339 --> 00:18:56,440 这相当不错 474 00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:57,359 尽管他们不得不 475 00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:01,000 他们基本清偿了2023年新增的债务 476 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,119 因为2023年他们出现净现金流负值 477 00:19:07,089 --> 00:19:08,529 仍在继续借贷 478 00:19:08,529 --> 00:19:10,349 看到他们多还一些会更好 479 00:19:10,349 --> 00:19:12,799 不过他们的资产负债表其实并不差 480 00:19:12,799 --> 00:19:14,839 他们有约三十四短期 481 00:19:14,839 --> 00:19:16,259 十八和应收账款 482 00:19:16,259 --> 00:19:18,319 短期债务约为三 483 00:19:18,319 --> 00:19:18,779 七 484 00:19:18,779 --> 00:19:20,609 三和十八长期 485 00:19:20,609 --> 00:19:24,259 这基本使资产负债表持平 486 00:19:24,259 --> 00:19:25,338 他们做得很好 487 00:19:25,338 --> 00:19:26,638 资产负债表相当稳定 488 00:19:26,638 --> 00:19:27,818 他们将进一步巩固 489 00:19:27,818 --> 00:19:29,058 通过此次IPO 490 00:19:29,058 --> 00:19:30,720 他们的利润率良好 491 00:19:31,319 --> 00:19:34,599 增长停滞是最大风险因素 492 00:19:34,599 --> 00:19:38,079 广告中包含免责条款 493 00:19:38,079 --> 00:19:39,160 这很有趣 494 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:43,160 你开始看到更多埃隆试图将此塞入太空探索科技 495 00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:43,859 IPO中 496 00:19:43,859 --> 00:19:45,579 我们将观察其效果 497 00:19:45,579 --> 00:19:46,480 当然 498 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,119 周期性预警是首要问题 499 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:48,940 我们已经很清楚这一点 500 00:19:48,940 --> 00:19:50,880 至于公司本身 501 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:54,319 他们在DRAM市场占有相当份额 502 00:19:54,319 --> 00:19:54,720 呃 503 00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:56,420 其中包括高带宽内存 504 00:19:56,420 --> 00:19:58,799 按营收排名位居第二 505 00:19:58,799 --> 00:20:01,279 市场份额为29.1% 506 00:20:01,279 --> 00:20:03,359 在高带宽市场具体来看 507 00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:06,019 他们全球排名第一 508 00:20:06,019 --> 00:20:07,440 这进入我们的 509 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:09,940 高端英伟达芯片市场份额达5.6% 510 00:20:09,940 --> 00:20:10,519 四个百分点 511 00:20:10,519 --> 00:20:13,339 2026年第一季度市场份额为5.4% 512 00:20:13,339 --> 00:20:16,960 按营收他们是第二大NAND闪存供应商 513 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:18,519 市场份额18.5% 514 00:20:18,519 --> 00:20:19,720 五个百分点 515 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:20,940 表现不错 516 00:20:20,940 --> 00:20:22,960 总结来说 517 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:25,200 我们如何看待这家公司呢 518 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:27,769 又是内存行业的一员 519 00:20:28,009 --> 00:20:31,910 流动性在行业内部被过度消耗 520 00:20:31,910 --> 00:20:37,150 现在关键在于市场能否找到新领导力 521 00:20:37,150 --> 00:20:40,230 这也是纳斯达克目前回撤的原因 522 00:20:40,230 --> 00:20:43,170 因为SpaceX导致巨额流动性流失 523 00:20:43,170 --> 00:20:47,079 大幅抽离了市场维持动量的能力 524 00:20:47,079 --> 00:20:49,119 现在需要新的领导力 525 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,599 或许这会是内存行业 526 00:20:51,599 --> 00:20:53,539 但就日线图来看 527 00:20:53,539 --> 00:20:55,119 美光科技正在回落 528 00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,700 英特尔也在回落 529 00:20:57,700 --> 00:21:00,599 而三星Hynix则继续 530 00:21:00,599 --> 00:21:01,700 分点释放利好 531 00:21:01,700 --> 00:21:05,150 这暗示更多回落压力 532 00:21:05,150 --> 00:21:06,670 当前并不理想 533 00:21:06,670 --> 00:21:08,750 显然今日有小幅反弹 534 00:21:08,750 --> 00:21:12,029 因英伟达周末公布坏消息 535 00:21:12,029 --> 00:21:15,190 我们可能推迟服务器机架部署 536 00:21:15,190 --> 00:21:17,489 可能延迟长达一年 537 00:21:17,489 --> 00:21:19,648 这对AMD是重大利好 538 00:21:19,648 --> 00:21:21,749 这也是AMD上涨9% 539 00:21:21,749 --> 00:21:25,839 正如我们今早直播中提到的 540 00:21:25,839 --> 00:21:27,720 如果你还不是凯文会员 541 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,900 恐怕错过了每日直播精华 542 00:21:30,900 --> 00:21:31,888 话说回来 543 00:21:31,888 --> 00:21:33,788 这就是我对三星Hynix的看法 544 00:21:33,788 --> 00:21:35,449 三星Hynix的总结 545 00:21:35,449 --> 00:21:42,368 估值过高因华尔街已预判平增长 546 00:21:42,368 --> 00:21:45,390 美光科技大概 547 00:21:45,390 --> 00:21:48,109 看起来估值偏低或廉价 548 00:21:48,109 --> 00:21:51,829 因为华尔街尚未将增长过渡纳入定价 549 00:21:52,869 --> 00:21:56,390 但这些是华尔街分析师的预期 550 00:21:56,390 --> 00:22:00,529 市场可能在说是的 551 00:22:00,529 --> 00:22:03,049 但我们不想为美光支付更高的PEG比率 552 00:22:03,049 --> 00:22:04,190 因为它可能会回落 553 00:22:04,190 --> 00:22:04,730 就像我们一样 554 00:22:04,730 --> 00:22:05,920 凯斯希索 555 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,339 股票的实际预测 556 00:22:08,339 --> 00:22:10,309 股票显然会 557 00:22:10,309 --> 00:22:10,890 他们会说 558 00:22:10,890 --> 00:22:11,769 哇哦 559 00:22:11,769 --> 00:22:13,910 SK海力士首日暴涨一倍 560 00:22:13,910 --> 00:22:14,349 或者类似情况 561 00:22:14,349 --> 00:22:15,400 这总是他们做的 562 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,359 你知道他们会定价79美元 563 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:19,400 并在IPO时以150到160美元上市 564 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:19,799 或者类似情况 565 00:22:19,799 --> 00:22:20,119 好的 566 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:20,319 不错 567 00:22:20,319 --> 00:22:22,170 将与SpaceX并列 568 00:22:22,170 --> 00:22:23,529 之后会发生什么 569 00:22:23,529 --> 00:22:24,990 具备 meme 潜力 570 00:22:24,990 --> 00:22:26,190 meme 潜力 571 00:22:26,190 --> 00:22:27,579 如果它上涨 572 00:22:27,579 --> 00:22:31,480 将带动美光和闪迪一同上涨 573 00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:35,769 问题是当初期动能消退后 574 00:22:35,769 --> 00:22:38,089 它们可能全线下跌 575 00:22:38,089 --> 00:22:42,690 市场是否会接棒领涨 576 00:22:42,690 --> 00:22:43,829 这是希望所在 577 00:22:43,829 --> 00:22:47,109 因此指数还能继续上涨 578 00:22:47,109 --> 00:22:51,559 拭目以待，尽管SpaceX明天将加入纳斯达克100指数 579 00:22:51,559 --> 00:22:54,599 仅占不到1% 580 00:22:54,599 --> 00:22:55,039 你知道的 581 00:22:55,039 --> 00:22:56,960 市值将占据重要部分 582 00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,799 SpaceX将占纳斯达克100不到1% 583 00:23:01,329 --> 00:23:03,769 即将迎来大量流动性需求 584 00:23:03,769 --> 00:23:05,630 包括锁定期到期 585 00:23:05,630 --> 00:23:08,210 SK海力士未来也将面临相同情况 586 00:23:08,210 --> 00:23:11,220 做好准备吧 587 00:23:11,220 --> 00:23:13,680 IPO后不建议买入 588 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,240 除非急于参与 meme 交易 589 00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:15,500 交易 590 00:23:15,500 --> 00:23:16,519 快速买卖 591 00:23:16,519 --> 00:23:19,059 但我不愿在此价位持有 592 00:23:19,059 --> 00:23:20,700 尤其是增长预测方面 593 00:23:20,700 --> 00:23:21,799 从个人角度 594 00:23:21,799 --> 00:23:26,490 我认为长期将严重供过于求 595 00:23:26,490 --> 00:23:27,890 这让我极度看空 596 00:23:27,890 --> 00:23:29,670 未来十年这些股票 597 00:23:29,670 --> 00:23:30,609 贸易机会 598 00:23:30,609 --> 00:23:31,329 短期 599 00:23:31,329 --> 00:23:31,990 很好 600 00:23:31,990 --> 00:23:32,969 长期 601 00:23:32,969 --> 00:23:34,369 不是用十尺长杆 602 00:23:34,369 --> 00:23:35,109 这就是我的观点 603 00:23:35,109 --> 00:23:35,690 感谢观看 604 00:23:35,690 --> 00:23:36,529 我们下次再见 605 00:23:36,529 --> 00:23:37,549 再见再见 606 00:23:37,549 --> 00:23:39,890 为什么不在这里宣传这些你说的事情呢 607 00:23:39,890 --> 00:23:41,650 我觉得没人知道这件事 608 00:23:41,650 --> 00:23:43,839 我们试试做点广告看看效果如何 609 00:23:43,839 --> 00:23:44,619 恭喜 610 00:23:44,619 --> 00:23:44,880 天啊 611 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:45,680 你已经做了这么多 612 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:46,519 大家都很喜欢你 613 00:23:46,519 --> 00:23:47,420 大家都很敬佩你 614 00:23:47,420 --> 00:23:48,460 就是凯文·帕弗拉特 615 00:23:48,460 --> 00:23:50,240 金融分析师兼YouTuber 616 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:50,920 认识一下凯文 617 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:52,319 很高兴听到你的见解
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