【Financial Education】美股进入最危险“磨损期”，AMD还能上车吗？

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好吧，你得翻我的煎饼了

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看看这个

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我在酒店房间里录制

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我现在在旅途中

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我的妻子

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她可是个厉害角色

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她给我们订了头等舱机票来纽约市看看这个人

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头等舱居然给真刀

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我根本没想到飞机上还能拿到真刀

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不过确实

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他们那里会发一把

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好吧

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我决定去纽约市旅行

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猜猜我住在哪里中城曼哈顿

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然后最近几小时我还收到消息

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中城曼哈顿这栋大楼可能要塌了

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我直接翻煎饼了兄弟

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这地方越来越疯狂了

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好吧

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女士们先生们

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今天我们视频里有很多内容

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所以昨天出发前

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我在飞机上

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我在X账号发了这条

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链接在下方描述区

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如果你想关注我的X账号

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但刚发了新动态

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创下历史新高

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达到四百五十五万五千美元

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难以置信

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恭喜所有达到新高的朋友们

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呃

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最近确实创了新高

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但这个市场真的很有趣

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因为有时候市场会因某些股票大涨

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第二天又暴跌

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比如AMD昨天暴涨

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现在市场真是变幻莫测

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这有点

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你知道的

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这会让一些人感到烦躁

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他们看到这些波动

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股票大涨又回落

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他们都在问到底怎么了

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某些股票走势强劲

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大幅波动

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Elf Beauty涨了4%

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八个百分点

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过去一个月看这个

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进入绝对兽王模式

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Palantir不再叫Palantitears了

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现在

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在这个时间节点

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看Palantir股价上涨超20%

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就在过去五个交易日

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Celsius Holdings已展现早期动能

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今日涨幅已达14%

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仅过去一个月内

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Meta开始启动升温

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看今日这波走势

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上涨3%以上

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2万美元

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在公众市场上涨

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今日看好Meta

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这个走势越来越有意思了

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没错

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今天视频将讨论的三大核心主题

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第一条我要给所有投资者两个重大警示

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非常严肃的警告，这能帮你省下很多钱，避免诸多麻烦

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能帮你避免很多头痛问题

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好的

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第二条

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我们将介绍两只我个人看好的强势股

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第三条我要说的就是Meta股票即将启动

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你开始看到这只股票升温了

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我们是不是要开启一段疯狂上涨

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好的

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今天视频将涵盖所有三个主题

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希望大家能喜欢这个视频

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开始前我有个问题

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好的

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你订阅了我的频道吗

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往下看看

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确认是否已订阅

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我们已有940

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一千名订阅者

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如果你还没订阅

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请订阅这个频道

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我需要你做一件事

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请点个赞

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如果你还没这样做

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请点那个小赞按钮

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非常感谢

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希望你们能欣赏我在度假时做的这个视频

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我在酒店房间

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好吧，我只需要一个赞

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这要求不算太高吧

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好的

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对了

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女士们、先生们

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让我们开始处理这些截至第一个日期的事项

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对所有投资者的两大警告

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接下来我们将讨论即将大幅上涨的股票

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在我看来

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然后我们再详细讨论

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好的

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首先在这里

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第一条警告

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你知道像微芯这样的股票

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没错

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微芯股价已下跌约222美元

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过去五个交易日下跌2.22美分

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没错

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全是二的组合

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我喜欢这个

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我应该买入微芯

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仅基于这些二的数字

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我看到太多二了

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好的

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听着

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好的

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我们现在处于一个阶段

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我称之为耗尽阶段

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好的

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在这个阶段我必须提醒所有人

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因为它会扰乱投资者决策

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不仅在短期内获利

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还会长期损害利益

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在耗尽阶段期间

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即使你正在关注

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比如AMD

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没错

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AMD一直是炙手可热的股票

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过去五天仅下跌5%

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但看看过去五个交易日

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股票波动性有多大

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看它的上涨走势

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看它的下跌走势

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看它上下波动的情况

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这开始让投资者感到疲惫

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因为有一天他们会说

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天啊

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我是不是要买一辆法拉利

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而第二天又说

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呃

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今晚连晚餐都负担不起

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没错，这就是现在市场的特点

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此时此刻我称之为耗尽市场

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看看昨天的情况

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所以昨天上涨了9%

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因为高盛更新了对AMD的看法

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没错

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高盛将AMD的目标价上调至640美元

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之前的目标价是45美元现在

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我几个月前就告诉过你们

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这就是AMD即将展开的博弈

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没错华尔街的分析师们

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投行必须持续追逐AMD

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他们必须不断上调

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目标价和评论以及相关分析对吧

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我说这真是美妙有趣的阶段

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太美妙了

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但这让股票波动性加剧因此AMD现在波动性极大

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交易者掌控着AMD

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好的

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我们必须非常明确这一点

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目前投资者并不控制这只股票

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是交易者在操控

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如果交易者看涨

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将涨至640或650

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他们正在积极行动

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算法也在积极操作

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如果第二天算法

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你们知道抛售压力

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然后你知道的

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假设韩国市场下跌

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出现大量追缴保证金

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芯片股暴跌两大内存

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芯片公司都在韩国市场

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三星和SK海力士

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现在市场极其波动

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AMD将随这些股票暴跌

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这就是迷人的市场

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但市场波动性极大

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尤其是某些个股

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这确实可能引发严重问题

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现在这是主要问题所在

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好的

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让我解释一下

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这能帮你省下很多钱避免损失

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好的

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听着

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我们当前经历的阶段极其危险

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最终会让投资者变成什么

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必须避免的首要事项

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要像躲避瘟疫一样

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作为投资者

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必须避开它

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你和我一样是投资者

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你专注于长期投资公司

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你关注数年后的公司发展

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你正在进行投资布局

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你的投资决策过程

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你在分析公司基本面

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没错

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你关注的数字显示商业模式走向

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你在做SWOT分析

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作为投资者必须避免的是一变卖国贼

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开始依据价格波动做决策

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我认为这只股票会上涨

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我觉得这只股票即将下跌

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坚持既定策略

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坚持既定策略

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不要让这波剧烈波动

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让你变成交易者

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因为这会导致

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人们开始思考

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好的

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这只股票大幅上涨了

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嗯我需要买入

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股票大幅下跌了

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我需要卖出

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因为它失去了动能

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对或他们看到股票有

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比如某天大幅上涨

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第二天大幅下跌

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我觉得可以利用这个模式

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没错

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但模式不再有效

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然后哦天啊你开始做各种交易决策

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然后你开始赌博

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你直接在市场赌博

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开始做赌博式决策

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如果你曾是赌徒

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或来自赌徒家庭

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你知道赌徒的行为

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开始追加赌注

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没错

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开始追回损失

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一个赌注变成另一个赌注

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又变成另一个赌注

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我必须赢回来

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我必须赢回来

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哦

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这次没成功

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好吧

247
00:07:27,089 --> 00:07:28,180
我得补回来

248
00:07:28,180 --> 00:07:30,199
最终就会这样发生

249
00:07:30,199 --> 00:07:31,360
千万不要这样做

250
00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:35,379
我的建议是坚持持有那些股票

251
00:07:35,379 --> 00:07:37,079
你知道像AMD这样的股票

252
00:07:37,079 --> 00:07:37,699
我赚了

253
00:07:37,699 --> 00:07:38,240
我赚了

254
00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:41,480
我在AMD股票上赚了超过一百万美元

255
00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:42,220
在公开市场

256
00:07:42,220 --> 00:07:44,100
单独计算已超一百万

257
00:07:44,100 --> 00:07:45,329
没错

258
00:07:45,689 --> 00:07:46,910
这太疯狂了

259
00:07:46,910 --> 00:07:47,550
现在

260
00:07:47,550 --> 00:07:53,220
把其他几个千万级账户的盈利也加到AMD利润里

261
00:07:53,220 --> 00:07:55,720
这越来越难坚持持有

262
00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:56,980
于是开始观察

263
00:07:56,980 --> 00:07:57,660
你可能会想

264
00:07:57,660 --> 00:08:01,240
当我赚了一百万美元时如何继续持有这只股票

265
00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:04,310
或者在整个投资组合中数百万美元

266
00:08:04,310 --> 00:08:06,629
然后波动性变得极其剧烈

267
00:08:06,629 --> 00:08:08,490
就像今天这样的日子

268
00:08:12,209 --> 00:08:12,949
没错

269
00:08:12,949 --> 00:08:15,050
这就是八万六千美元

270
00:08:15,050 --> 00:08:19,199
这是我入职Quick Trip两年后的税后收入

271
00:08:19,519 --> 00:08:22,120
今天损失了八万六千美元

272
00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:23,819
在一个投资组合里

273
00:08:23,819 --> 00:08:25,658
在一只股票上

274
00:08:25,658 --> 00:08:27,399
所以开始变得难以抉择

275
00:08:27,399 --> 00:08:29,298
如何继续持有这只股票

276
00:08:29,298 --> 00:08:30,579
好了听我说

277
00:08:30,579 --> 00:08:32,308
你需要这样做

278
00:08:32,308 --> 00:08:34,000
查看你的预测数据

279
00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:35,500
看看营收增长情况

280
00:08:35,500 --> 00:08:38,919
净利润增长预期及市盈率

281
00:08:38,919 --> 00:08:41,159
回归基本面分析

282
00:08:41,159 --> 00:08:41,808
好的

283
00:08:41,808 --> 00:08:44,408
回归基本面

284
00:08:44,408 --> 00:08:47,089
不要陷入投机游戏

285
00:08:47,089 --> 00:08:47,990
嗯

286
00:08:47,990 --> 00:08:50,350
我认为这只股票会上涨

287
00:08:50,350 --> 00:08:50,549
不

288
00:08:50,549 --> 00:08:50,669
不

289
00:08:50,669 --> 00:08:50,909
不

290
00:08:50,909 --> 00:08:52,250
回归基本面

291
00:08:52,250 --> 00:08:54,070
那如果我查看这里的预测数据

292
00:08:54,070 --> 00:08:56,450
现在查看Thousand X Stocks网站

293
00:08:56,450 --> 00:08:56,990
请记住

294
00:08:56,990 --> 00:09:00,419
我刚下调了AMD未来几年的预测

295
00:09:00,419 --> 00:09:03,659
在基准情景下营收增长降至3.5%

296
00:09:03,659 --> 00:09:04,480
这只是个委婉说法

297
00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:05,440
这就是我预期的

298
00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:05,659
对

299
00:09:05,659 --> 00:09:06,779
有一些保守主义

300
00:09:06,779 --> 00:09:09,078
那里确实有点保守主义

301
00:09:09,078 --> 00:09:10,099
在我的乐观情景中

302
00:09:10,099 --> 00:09:13,339
四五和我下调了我乐观情景的市盈率

303
00:09:13,339 --> 00:09:15,239
我也下调了我基准情景的市盈率

304
00:09:15,239 --> 00:09:15,418
好的

305
00:09:15,418 --> 00:09:16,619
所以比之前稍微保守一些

306
00:09:16,619 --> 00:09:17,639
但比之前的情况更保守

307
00:09:17,639 --> 00:09:20,539
但即使在这一更保守的立场下

308
00:09:20,539 --> 00:09:22,519
对，在我的基准情景中

309
00:09:22,519 --> 00:09:26,559
基本是股票在未来几年涨到九百到一千美元

310
00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:31,039
也就是说未来三年股价将翻倍

311
00:09:31,570 --> 00:09:33,940
这很难轻易放弃

312
00:09:33,940 --> 00:09:35,299
在我的激进情景中

313
00:09:35,299 --> 00:09:37,059
如果情况比我预期的更好

314
00:09:37,059 --> 00:09:38,460
也就是说我们可能在讨论

315
00:09:38,460 --> 00:09:40,980
AMD股价涨到一千五百美元

316
00:09:40,980 --> 00:09:43,099
一千八百美元的股价对吧

317
00:09:43,099 --> 00:09:46,389
我今天股价五百多

318
00:09:46,389 --> 00:09:48,250
五百多左右对吧

319
00:09:48,250 --> 00:09:51,620
基于我对AMD的预测

320
00:09:51,620 --> 00:09:53,500
尽管股价大幅上涨

321
00:09:53,500 --> 00:09:55,259
尽管波动性极大

322
00:09:55,259 --> 00:10:00,240
现在继续持有并暂不获利仍合理

323
00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:01,899
这确实很难

324
00:10:01,899 --> 00:10:03,679
当你大幅盈利时更难

325
00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:06,720
但必须回归数据

326
00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:08,580
必须回归数据

327
00:10:08,580 --> 00:10:11,839
好的，今天我告诉私人股票小组

328
00:10:11,839 --> 00:10:13,198
关于AMD的情况

329
00:10:13,198 --> 00:10:15,038
我个人对AMD股票的看法

330
00:10:15,038 --> 00:10:15,479
好的

331
00:10:15,479 --> 00:10:16,960
听着

332
00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:18,019
我说

333
00:10:18,019 --> 00:10:20,440
我刚刚更新了所有AMD的预测数据

334
00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:23,839
你知道我调整了预期未来

335
00:10:23,839 --> 00:10:25,759
预期营收增长

336
00:10:25,759 --> 00:10:26,359
净利润

337
00:10:26,359 --> 00:10:30,210
因为我担心可能出现芯片过度订购

338
00:10:30,210 --> 00:10:31,970
现在及未来几年

339
00:10:31,970 --> 00:10:33,580
所以依然看多

340
00:10:33,580 --> 00:10:35,919
但对AMD的看多程度略低于之前

341
00:10:35,919 --> 00:10:37,299
但显然我仍看多

342
00:10:37,299 --> 00:10:40,039
因为我的基准情景基本是股票在未来几年达到九百到一千美元

343
00:10:40,039 --> 00:10:41,120
在未来几年股价达到九百到一千美元

344
00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:41,659
对

345
00:10:41,659 --> 00:10:44,059
但要注意AMD股票

346
00:10:44,059 --> 00:10:46,460
未来六个月仍可能大幅上涨

347
00:10:46,460 --> 00:10:50,720
九个月内可能涨到一千美元

348
00:10:50,919 --> 00:10:52,740
这就是你需要理解的关于这个的情况

349
00:10:52,740 --> 00:10:54,000
当你拥有势能时

350
00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:55,720
你有分析师团队支持你

351
00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:56,960
他们不断上调数据

352
00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:58,980
然后你交出几个惊喜财报

353
00:10:58,980 --> 00:11:00,389
就你的指引而言

354
00:11:00,389 --> 00:11:03,230
这只股票今年可能涨到一千

355
00:11:03,230 --> 00:11:04,009
好的

356
00:11:04,009 --> 00:11:05,159
好的

357
00:11:05,159 --> 00:11:06,259
我说啊

358
00:11:06,259 --> 00:11:06,840
你知道的

359
00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:11,200
我的长期担忧比之前多了

360
00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:12,399
但这也是为什么

361
00:11:12,399 --> 00:11:14,480
如果你看到今年涨到一千

362
00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:16,379
我大部分持股

363
00:11:16,379 --> 00:11:16,559
比如

364
00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:18,000
如果a和d前面加个一

365
00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:18,379
现在

366
00:11:18,379 --> 00:11:19,460
我说一百美元

367
00:11:19,460 --> 00:11:21,279
我说今天一千美元

368
00:11:21,279 --> 00:11:24,860
我今天仍持有大部分amd

369
00:11:24,860 --> 00:11:26,019
不是因为像

370
00:11:26,019 --> 00:11:26,320
哦

371
00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:27,200
也许会涨得更高

372
00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:28,230
就像我

373
00:11:28,230 --> 00:11:29,070
这没问题

374
00:11:29,070 --> 00:11:30,789
我会兑现利润

375
00:11:30,789 --> 00:11:31,070
不

376
00:11:31,070 --> 00:11:33,669
我需要保留一定数量的amd股票

377
00:11:33,669 --> 00:11:35,029
长期持有

378
00:11:35,029 --> 00:11:35,509
对

379
00:11:35,509 --> 00:11:37,309
比如二十到三十

380
00:11:37,309 --> 00:11:38,470
比如二十到三十

381
00:11:38,470 --> 00:11:40,669
再长期到未来

382
00:11:40,669 --> 00:11:44,370
但就大部分持股而言

383
00:11:44,370 --> 00:11:47,099
我想退出这些

384
00:11:47,099 --> 00:11:49,278
大概在六到十二个月内

385
00:11:49,278 --> 00:11:49,879
好的

386
00:11:49,879 --> 00:11:51,919
这就是需要记住的

387
00:11:51,919 --> 00:11:53,440
但回到数据本身

388
00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:53,759
兄弟

389
00:11:53,759 --> 00:11:55,220
回到数据本身

390
00:11:55,220 --> 00:11:58,899
现在你们见过这个小示意图吗

391
00:11:58,899 --> 00:11:59,600
我这里有张图说

392
00:11:59,600 --> 00:11:59,879
杰里米

393
00:11:59,879 --> 00:12:00,519
财务总监的酒店

394
00:12:00,519 --> 00:12:01,080
煎饼屋

395
00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:03,120
翻转度假村第一件事我有

396
00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:04,639
这里要构建一个投资组合

397
00:12:04,639 --> 00:12:06,480
几年后会很自豪

398
00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:10,799
对了，女士们先生们请记住这一点

399
00:12:10,799 --> 00:12:11,440
好的

400
00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:14,279
你想建立投资组合并在多年后引以为傲

401
00:12:14,279 --> 00:12:16,809
所以如果你想继续持有amd股票

402
00:12:16,809 --> 00:12:17,710
因为它是一只股票

403
00:12:17,710 --> 00:12:20,230
你需要持有到2035-2040年

404
00:12:20,230 --> 00:12:22,299
并经历多个芯片周期

405
00:12:22,299 --> 00:12:24,360
因为我们正处于一个巨大的芯片周期中

406
00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:27,769
没错，这可能还有两到四年的时间

407
00:12:27,769 --> 00:12:29,970
具体取决于你对周期的乐观程度

408
00:12:31,009 --> 00:12:32,110
到这里就结束了

409
00:12:32,110 --> 00:12:34,149
然后你将迎来下行周期

410
00:12:34,149 --> 00:12:35,110
接着是下一个周期

411
00:12:35,110 --> 00:12:36,690
这就是芯片行业的特性

412
00:12:36,690 --> 00:12:38,690
你可以回顾过去四十年的行业

413
00:12:38,690 --> 00:12:41,330
总是重复着繁荣与衰退的周期

414
00:12:41,330 --> 00:12:44,190
因此你可能需要持有接下来几个周期

415
00:12:44,190 --> 00:12:45,919
因为这不是ai周期

416
00:12:45,919 --> 00:12:48,100
我们现在经历的正是最后一个周期

417
00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:53,490
只要你知道这一点

418
00:12:53,490 --> 00:12:55,529
只要我们继续使用半导体

419
00:12:55,529 --> 00:12:57,720
请记住这一点

420
00:12:57,720 --> 00:12:58,620
请务必记住

421
00:12:58,620 --> 00:12:59,139
没错

422
00:12:59,139 --> 00:13:00,500
这就是第一点

423
00:13:00,500 --> 00:13:03,039
这是我给所有人的第一个重要警告

424
00:13:03,039 --> 00:13:05,970
保持定力继续前行

425
00:13:05,970 --> 00:13:07,889
审视你的预测数据

426
00:13:07,889 --> 00:13:12,610
尽量基于数据而非主观意见做决定

427
00:13:12,610 --> 00:13:13,370
股价即将见顶

428
00:13:13,370 --> 00:13:14,909
因为我感觉它即将见顶

429
00:13:14,909 --> 00:13:15,769
由于价格走势

430
00:13:15,769 --> 00:13:17,840
而非基本面分析

431
00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:19,720
这是第二大主要警告

432
00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:21,500
这能帮你省下一大笔钱

433
00:13:21,500 --> 00:13:22,759
听着

434
00:13:23,509 --> 00:13:25,730
不要被ipo陷阱吸引

435
00:13:25,730 --> 00:13:26,269
好的

436
00:13:26,269 --> 00:13:27,769
看看像spacex这样的公司

437
00:13:27,769 --> 00:13:29,470
大家对其都充满热情

438
00:13:29,470 --> 00:13:33,169
几周前股价曾涨至24美元

439
00:13:33,169 --> 00:13:34,090
现在市值已超150亿美元

440
00:13:34,090 --> 00:13:34,839
好的

441
00:13:34,839 --> 00:13:37,099
不要陷入ipo热潮

442
00:13:37,099 --> 00:13:39,318
现在有很多公司上市

443
00:13:39,318 --> 00:13:42,739
短期内还将有更多公司上市

444
00:13:42,739 --> 00:13:44,750
记住以下几点

445
00:13:44,750 --> 00:13:45,789
关于ipo的注意事项

446
00:13:45,789 --> 00:13:46,230
无论如何

447
00:13:46,230 --> 00:13:47,570
对这项工作非常有经验

448
00:13:47,570 --> 00:13:48,769
你应该清楚这一点

449
00:13:48,769 --> 00:13:50,610
但我在为进入市场的普通人说话

450
00:13:50,610 --> 00:13:53,980
过去几年还没有经历过IPO周期

451
00:13:53,980 --> 00:13:55,100
我可以告诉你

452
00:13:55,100 --> 00:13:55,820
如果你还没有

453
00:13:55,820 --> 00:13:57,779
如果你投资时间不超过四年

454
00:13:57,779 --> 00:13:58,940
而你正在观看这个

455
00:13:58,940 --> 00:14:00,799
你尚未经历过IPO周期

456
00:14:00,799 --> 00:14:02,580
这正是你的首个IPO周期

457
00:14:02,580 --> 00:14:03,419
欢迎

458
00:14:03,419 --> 00:14:07,159
过去十八年我经历了许多IPO周期

459
00:14:07,159 --> 00:14:07,720
好的

460
00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:08,980
注意

461
00:14:09,259 --> 00:14:16,539
新上市公司中约三分之二在上市首三年表现跑输市场

462
00:14:16,539 --> 00:14:17,210
好的

463
00:14:17,210 --> 00:14:19,730
如果你买入一篮子IPO股票

464
00:14:19,730 --> 00:14:20,309
请记住

465
00:14:20,309 --> 00:14:23,769
其中大多数都会跑输市场

466
00:14:23,769 --> 00:14:26,750
在上市后首一至三年内

467
00:14:26,750 --> 00:14:27,578
好的

468
00:14:27,578 --> 00:14:33,999
接下来90%的IPO最终收盘价以下交易

469
00:14:33,999 --> 00:14:34,678
好的

470
00:14:34,678 --> 00:14:36,330
90%

471
00:14:36,330 --> 00:14:38,929
90%最终会这样

472
00:14:38,929 --> 00:14:40,490
所以请记住

473
00:14:40,490 --> 00:14:41,210
无论你看到什么

474
00:14:41,210 --> 00:14:44,059
IPO交易在首日或首周的表现

475
00:14:44,059 --> 00:14:45,179
你

476
00:14:45,179 --> 00:14:47,820
存在极高的概率

477
00:14:47,820 --> 00:14:52,068
能以远低于当前价格购入该IPO

478
00:14:52,469 --> 00:14:53,749
数月后一年

479
00:14:53,749 --> 00:14:54,548
从现在起两年

480
00:14:54,548 --> 00:14:55,509
从现在起三年

481
00:14:55,509 --> 00:14:55,928
从现在起

482
00:14:55,928 --> 00:14:56,489
好的

483
00:14:56,489 --> 00:14:57,589
所以你知道

484
00:14:57,589 --> 00:14:58,889
我反复观察到这一点

485
00:14:58,889 --> 00:14:59,818
请记住

486
00:14:59,818 --> 00:15:00,899
IPO规模越大

487
00:15:00,899 --> 00:15:01,958
伴随的炒作越多

488
00:15:01,958 --> 00:15:04,938
你以更低价格后续购入的概率越高

489
00:15:04,938 --> 00:15:06,578
未来以更低价格持有

490
00:15:06,578 --> 00:15:08,450
更大概率的

491
00:15:08,450 --> 00:15:10,450
关于IPO的有趣之处在于

492
00:15:10,450 --> 00:15:11,090
不过

493
00:15:11,090 --> 00:15:11,529
你知道

494
00:15:11,529 --> 00:15:12,590
如果你想这样看待

495
00:15:12,590 --> 00:15:16,169
这被称为5%或10%的IPO未跌破该价格

496
00:15:16,169 --> 00:15:17,029
它们通常是那些

497
00:15:17,029 --> 00:15:18,029
没有人谈论

498
00:15:18,029 --> 00:15:19,919
没有人听说这件事

499
00:15:19,919 --> 00:15:23,600
一些鲜为人知的公司，你从未听说过它们有过任何炒作

500
00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:25,360
然后他们持续执行业绩

501
00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:27,179
随着时间推移，越来越多的人发现它

502
00:15:27,179 --> 00:15:28,068
所以股价上涨了

503
00:15:28,068 --> 00:15:31,028
但我无法告诉你一只股票

504
00:15:31,028 --> 00:15:31,749
我曾经关注过

505
00:15:31,749 --> 00:15:37,440
上市后第一年股价没有大幅下跌

506
00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:38,159
如果不是这样

507
00:15:38,159 --> 00:15:40,000
它上市后的前两三年

508
00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:40,480
ipo

509
00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:41,299
基本上正常

510
00:15:41,299 --> 00:15:43,159
但人们被这种兴奋冲昏了头脑

511
00:15:43,159 --> 00:15:44,240
那种最初的 hype

512
00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:44,779
我要买它

513
00:15:44,779 --> 00:15:47,690
它上市当天就买入，上市首周就买入

514
00:15:47,690 --> 00:15:50,690
然后发现多年都处于亏损状态

515
00:15:50,690 --> 00:15:52,330
通常多年都亏损

516
00:15:52,330 --> 00:15:53,950
如果你喜欢

517
00:15:53,950 --> 00:15:56,470
哦，我在股票上亏损了几周或几个月

518
00:15:56,470 --> 00:15:58,330
通常人们在这些 ipo 中买入时

519
00:15:58,330 --> 00:15:59,470
上市当天

520
00:15:59,470 --> 00:16:01,649
或上市后的第一周或两周

521
00:16:01,649 --> 00:16:04,710
结果多年都亏损

522
00:16:04,710 --> 00:16:05,970
有些人一直亏损

523
00:16:07,330 --> 00:16:08,450
好吧

524
00:16:09,110 --> 00:16:11,929
一个很好的例子就是 Meta 的 ipo

525
00:16:11,929 --> 00:16:13,149
你知道 Meta

526
00:16:13,149 --> 00:16:15,759
无疑是历史上最伟大的公司之一

527
00:16:15,759 --> 00:16:19,480
即使它们在上市后也经历了糟糕的情况

528
00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:20,960
Meta 以三十八美元 ipo

529
00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:23,809
股票当年一度跌至低点

530
00:16:23,809 --> 00:16:25,990
上市时定价十七点五五

531
00:16:25,990 --> 00:16:28,850
这是人类历史上最伟大的公司之一

532
00:16:28,850 --> 00:16:30,519
在牛市中

533
00:16:30,519 --> 00:16:31,759
在牛市中

534
00:16:31,759 --> 00:16:33,759
它仍然如此

535
00:16:33,759 --> 00:16:34,740
令人着迷

536
00:16:34,740 --> 00:16:36,539
真是令人着迷

537
00:16:36,539 --> 00:16:37,080
哦

538
00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:40,190
我每次查看都能看到这样的案例

539
00:16:40,190 --> 00:16:41,590
就像另一家公司

540
00:16:41,590 --> 00:16:44,289
刚完成二十三十亿美元的债券发行

541
00:16:44,289 --> 00:16:45,750
这些大科技公司都在这么做

542
00:16:45,750 --> 00:16:47,429
为什么现在要这样做

543
00:16:47,429 --> 00:16:49,970
因为现在到处都是易得的资金

544
00:16:49,970 --> 00:16:50,370
没错

545
00:16:50,370 --> 00:16:52,330
现在正是发行债券的好时机

546
00:16:52,330 --> 00:16:53,289
如果你是大科技公司

547
00:16:53,289 --> 00:16:54,929
现在正是上市的最佳时机

548
00:16:54,929 --> 00:16:56,450
这就是你应该行动的时候

549
00:16:56,450 --> 00:16:57,909
你想要进行ipo上市

550
00:16:57,909 --> 00:16:59,889
当市场上到处都是易得的资金时

551
00:16:59,889 --> 00:17:01,049
当市场充满热情时

552
00:17:01,049 --> 00:17:03,039
没错，这就是该行动的时候

553
00:17:03,039 --> 00:17:05,460
如果人们极度谨慎

554
00:17:05,460 --> 00:17:07,859
如果当时市场上资金不多

555
00:17:07,859 --> 00:17:09,759
为什么要选择上市

556
00:17:10,420 --> 00:17:12,220
你知道我有千倍股票

557
00:17:12,220 --> 00:17:12,759
互联网公司

558
00:17:12,759 --> 00:17:13,440
好的

559
00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:16,000
非常成功的软件服务公司

560
00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:20,170
假设我在考虑让千倍公司上市

561
00:17:20,170 --> 00:17:20,890
其实我没有

562
00:17:20,890 --> 00:17:23,630
但假设我可以

563
00:17:24,150 --> 00:17:26,250
你觉得我什么时候会让千倍公司上市

564
00:17:26,250 --> 00:17:29,230
当没人对股票感兴趣时

565
00:17:29,230 --> 00:17:30,630
也没人看好pos

566
00:17:30,630 --> 00:17:32,289
或者当所有人都兴奋时

567
00:17:32,289 --> 00:17:33,365
嗯

568
00:17:35,059 --> 00:17:38,500
最佳上市时机是当所有人都想购买时

569
00:17:38,500 --> 00:17:40,509
因为你能筹集到最多资金

570
00:17:40,509 --> 00:17:43,410
如果你有很多公司股东

571
00:17:43,410 --> 00:17:46,309
你觉得他们会愿意在低估值时ipo吗

572
00:17:46,309 --> 00:17:47,029
不会

573
00:17:47,029 --> 00:17:50,869
他们会想在高估时出售公司

574
00:17:51,190 --> 00:17:55,638
这就是现实，记住这些公司

575
00:17:55,638 --> 00:17:57,338
拥有大量投资者

576
00:17:57,338 --> 00:17:57,699
不像

577
00:17:57,699 --> 00:17:59,578
不是一个人拥有公司

578
00:17:59,578 --> 00:18:01,460
比如像spacex公司

579
00:18:01,460 --> 00:18:02,359
天啊

580
00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:02,500
嗯

581
00:18:02,500 --> 00:18:03,099
他们可能拥有

582
00:18:03,099 --> 00:18:04,039
你知道有数千人

583
00:18:04,039 --> 00:18:04,680
数万人

584
00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:04,980
数百人

585
00:18:04,980 --> 00:18:05,500
数千人

586
00:18:05,500 --> 00:18:09,619
如果不是数百万投资者通过不同基金投资

587
00:18:09,619 --> 00:18:11,859
所以你觉得这些人会

588
00:18:11,859 --> 00:18:12,059
哦

589
00:18:12,059 --> 00:18:14,319
在糟糕时机让spacex上市

590
00:18:14,319 --> 00:18:15,440
当然不会

591
00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:18,819
他们会选择最佳时机上市

592
00:18:19,180 --> 00:18:20,759
以获得最高价格

593
00:18:20,759 --> 00:18:22,319
然后当他们套现股份时

594
00:18:22,319 --> 00:18:24,880
通常如果你的股份被锁定多年

595
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:26,950
你迫不及待要出售

596
00:18:27,230 --> 00:18:28,730
他们想以高价出售

597
00:18:28,730 --> 00:18:31,470
没错，他们想以万亿级估值出售它

598
00:18:31,470 --> 00:18:33,409
他们不想以五百亿出售

599
00:18:33,409 --> 00:18:35,009
但如果你能给出两万亿

600
00:18:35,009 --> 00:18:35,409
一点吧

601
00:18:35,409 --> 00:18:36,169
五万亿

602
00:18:36,169 --> 00:18:36,788
给我钱

603
00:18:36,788 --> 00:18:37,308
给他们钱

604
00:18:37,308 --> 00:18:37,848
给我钱

605
00:18:37,848 --> 00:18:38,229
对的

606
00:18:38,229 --> 00:18:39,469
这就是他们喜欢做的事

607
00:18:39,469 --> 00:18:41,420
所以要记住这一点

608
00:18:41,420 --> 00:18:44,579
你知道最疯狂的事是广告在电视上播

609
00:18:44,579 --> 00:18:45,799
就在CNBC频道

610
00:18:45,799 --> 00:18:49,319
这是关于下一个

611
00:18:49,319 --> 00:18:50,579
本十年最热IPO

612
00:18:50,579 --> 00:18:52,259
十年评论没错

613
00:18:52,259 --> 00:18:54,240
我们将给你本十年最热IPO

614
00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:57,769
注意当公司打电视广告时

615
00:18:57,769 --> 00:19:00,890
试图谈论本十年最热IPO

616
00:19:00,890 --> 00:19:02,069
你知道的

617
00:19:02,069 --> 00:19:03,670
找出是什么

618
00:19:03,990 --> 00:19:04,589
我说

619
00:19:04,589 --> 00:19:06,869
这通常意味着市场处于相当

620
00:19:06,989 --> 00:19:08,989
你知道IPO危险期

621
00:19:08,989 --> 00:19:09,788
当我说到

622
00:19:09,788 --> 00:19:10,068
危险

623
00:19:10,068 --> 00:19:12,269
我是从逆向视角说的，比如

624
00:19:12,269 --> 00:19:13,628
如果你投资这些IPO

625
00:19:13,628 --> 00:19:15,409
要非常非常警惕

626
00:19:15,409 --> 00:19:16,788
非常警惕

627
00:19:16,788 --> 00:19:18,769
当他们在电视上宣传

628
00:19:18,769 --> 00:19:21,409
我们将给你本十年最热IPO

629
00:19:22,039 --> 00:19:22,859
注意

630
00:19:22,859 --> 00:19:23,640
注意

631
00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:24,299
注意

632
00:19:24,299 --> 00:19:24,900
好吧

633
00:19:24,900 --> 00:19:28,480
让我告诉你最近的IPO周期

634
00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:30,180
那是2021年

635
00:19:30,180 --> 00:19:31,750
有很多特殊目的收购公司

636
00:19:31,750 --> 00:19:34,049
特殊目的收购公司

637
00:19:34,049 --> 00:19:35,470
有很多IPO

638
00:19:35,470 --> 00:19:35,630
好的

639
00:19:35,630 --> 00:19:37,849
2021年确实疯狂

640
00:19:37,849 --> 00:19:40,119
到处都是套利资金

641
00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:42,039
在疫情后复苏阶段

642
00:19:42,039 --> 00:19:44,319
我可以告诉你

643
00:19:44,319 --> 00:19:51,240
几乎所有这些SPAC和IPO在12个月内都暴跌

644
00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:52,019
2021年

645
00:19:52,019 --> 00:19:53,839
IPO和SPAC狂潮

646
00:19:53,839 --> 00:19:56,338
没错，这些公司大多数都失败了

647
00:19:56,338 --> 00:19:59,729
我记得你曾经经历过那种糟糕的情况

648
00:19:59,729 --> 00:20:00,848
或者IPO

649
00:20:00,848 --> 00:20:03,249
其中大多数从未回到原价

650
00:20:03,249 --> 00:20:06,159
它们在2021年出现过，但相差甚远

651
00:20:06,159 --> 00:20:08,798
很多公司已经濒临破产

652
00:20:08,798 --> 00:20:10,078
它们已经宣告破产

653
00:20:10,078 --> 00:20:10,979
它们股价归零了

654
00:20:10,979 --> 00:20:12,098
罗伯特·德尼罗

655
00:20:12,098 --> 00:20:13,259
最后的行动英雄

656
00:20:13,259 --> 00:20:14,509
这太疯狂了

657
00:20:14,509 --> 00:20:16,069
仔细想想这个情况

658
00:20:16,069 --> 00:20:18,470
它们从未恢复

659
00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:20,619
我指的是几乎可以肯定

660
00:20:20,619 --> 00:20:21,740
我试着回想

661
00:20:21,740 --> 00:20:22,700
有太多公司

662
00:20:22,700 --> 00:20:25,529
我知道那些在那时上市的公司

663
00:20:25,529 --> 00:20:28,349
很难想到有一家

664
00:20:28,349 --> 00:20:30,329
只有一个公司映入脑海

665
00:20:30,329 --> 00:20:34,390
我认为现在股价比当时上市时更高

666
00:20:34,390 --> 00:20:35,789
2021年的IPO

667
00:20:35,789 --> 00:20:37,250
想到的那家公司

668
00:20:37,250 --> 00:20:38,329
你知道是哪家吗

669
00:20:38,329 --> 00:20:39,630
帕兰提尔科技

670
00:20:39,630 --> 00:20:41,809
帕兰提尔科技甚至

671
00:20:41,809 --> 00:20:44,829
在那次IPO热潮中暴跌帕兰提尔

672
00:20:44,829 --> 00:20:46,230
2021年时

673
00:20:46,230 --> 00:20:48,930
该公司股价一度涨至30或40美元一股

674
00:20:48,930 --> 00:20:49,630
你知道吗

675
00:20:49,630 --> 00:20:52,630
我在下一年的最低点买入

676
00:20:53,079 --> 00:20:55,500
五美元九十八美分

677
00:20:55,819 --> 00:20:57,740
五美元九十八美分

678
00:20:57,740 --> 00:21:03,569
2022年以六七八美元轻松购入

679
00:21:03,569 --> 00:21:04,730
每股九美元

680
00:21:05,849 --> 00:21:06,309
太疯狂了

681
00:21:06,309 --> 00:21:11,890
没错，我可以列举很多公司

682
00:21:11,890 --> 00:21:14,079
或2021年上市的公司

683
00:21:14,079 --> 00:21:14,720
这简直

684
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:15,259
你知道的

685
00:21:15,259 --> 00:21:16,559
下跌了一千五百点

686
00:21:16,559 --> 00:21:18,220
看看这家公司

687
00:21:18,220 --> 00:21:19,420
诚实公司

688
00:21:19,420 --> 00:21:21,720
HST这只股票

689
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:23,960
这只股票上市首日飙升

690
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:25,799
股价暴涨44%

691
00:21:25,799 --> 00:21:27,119
天啊上市了

692
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:28,490
2021年5月5日

693
00:21:28,490 --> 00:21:31,130
收盘价23美元一股

694
00:21:31,130 --> 00:21:32,049
没错

695
00:21:32,049 --> 00:21:36,809
现在仅需三美元八十八美分就能买入

696
00:21:37,789 --> 00:21:39,710
比五年前高了五倍

697
00:21:39,710 --> 00:21:40,970
你可以支付二十三美元

698
00:21:40,970 --> 00:21:42,710
人们支付了二十三美元

699
00:21:42,710 --> 00:21:46,069
或者你可以以三美元八十美分的价格购买股票

700
00:21:46,069 --> 00:21:47,309
价格跌至一美元

701
00:21:47,309 --> 00:21:49,609
你可以以每股一美元购入

702
00:21:49,609 --> 00:21:51,259
几年前

703
00:21:51,259 --> 00:21:54,759
从二十三美元跌到一美元

704
00:21:54,759 --> 00:21:55,920
这不是唯一股票

705
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:56,670
还有

706
00:21:56,670 --> 00:21:57,309
我的意思是

707
00:21:57,309 --> 00:21:59,869
可能有数百种类似情况

708
00:21:59,869 --> 00:22:02,710
它们正死在离交易地点一英里半的地方

709
00:22:02,710 --> 00:22:03,890
早在2021年

710
00:22:03,890 --> 00:22:05,559
或已破产

711
00:22:05,559 --> 00:22:06,720
已经疯狂了

712
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:07,579
没错

713
00:22:07,579 --> 00:22:11,250
所以要像躲避瘟疫一样避开

714
00:22:11,250 --> 00:22:12,170
所有这些情况

715
00:22:12,170 --> 00:22:13,430
如果你想买一家公司

716
00:22:13,430 --> 00:22:15,170
上市后六个月

717
00:22:15,170 --> 00:22:15,869
一年

718
00:22:15,869 --> 00:22:16,509
两年

719
00:22:16,509 --> 00:22:18,170
三年公平交易

720
00:22:18,170 --> 00:22:20,029
但在最初几天

721
00:22:20,029 --> 00:22:24,250
这就是我从不立即买入新股的原因

722
00:22:24,250 --> 00:22:29,349
因为我知道它们几乎肯定会暴跌

723
00:22:29,349 --> 00:22:30,880
这就是常态

724
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:31,420
不

725
00:22:31,420 --> 00:22:34,259
记住我这里提到的两个核心要点

726
00:22:34,259 --> 00:22:36,079
关于我的煎饼

727
00:22:36,079 --> 00:22:36,319
翻转器

728
00:22:36,319 --> 00:22:37,259
策略四

729
00:22:37,259 --> 00:22:39,230
电话会议不可协商

730
00:22:39,230 --> 00:22:39,990
听着

731
00:22:39,990 --> 00:22:42,460
你如何监听电话会议

732
00:22:42,460 --> 00:22:44,019
如果公司未上市

733
00:22:44,019 --> 00:22:45,400
不可能

734
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,599
我通常会在几个季度前监听

735
00:22:48,599 --> 00:22:51,640
甚至在投资前多年

736
00:22:51,769 --> 00:22:54,849
未上市公司无法做到

737
00:22:54,849 --> 00:22:57,650
这已违背核心原则

738
00:22:57,650 --> 00:22:58,970
若参与新股认购

739
00:22:58,970 --> 00:23:00,410
因为你无法监听电话会议

740
00:23:00,410 --> 00:23:01,569
正确数字

741
00:23:01,569 --> 00:23:02,750
第五个要点

742
00:23:02,750 --> 00:23:04,190
了解你的股票

743
00:23:04,190 --> 00:23:04,930
财务状况

744
00:23:04,930 --> 00:23:05,589
你知道的

745
00:23:05,589 --> 00:23:09,150
这些公司的财务状况极其脆弱

746
00:23:09,150 --> 00:23:10,829
极其不稳定

747
00:23:10,829 --> 00:23:13,630
许多公司在尚未盈利时就上市了

748
00:23:13,630 --> 00:23:14,750
他们正在承受巨额亏损

749
00:23:14,750 --> 00:23:15,950
因为他们想要筹集更多资金

750
00:23:15,950 --> 00:23:19,959
没错，这些公司缺乏长期业绩记录

751
00:23:19,959 --> 00:23:21,519
财务状况处于良好位置

752
00:23:22,598 --> 00:23:24,279
所以你知道像

753
00:23:24,279 --> 00:23:26,059
如果你无法完成这里的核心事项

754
00:23:26,059 --> 00:23:26,940
你就做不到

755
00:23:26,940 --> 00:23:28,539
这意味着不可触碰

756
00:23:28,539 --> 00:23:29,059
这无关紧要

757
00:23:29,059 --> 00:23:31,160
无论你对长期前景有多兴奋

758
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:33,319
比如我们将来要开采小行星

759
00:23:33,319 --> 00:23:33,720
总有一天

760
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:34,329
酷啊

761
00:23:34,329 --> 00:23:34,970
好的

762
00:23:34,970 --> 00:23:37,230
等股价暴跌后买入

763
00:23:37,230 --> 00:23:37,549
好的

764
00:23:37,549 --> 00:23:38,390
然后你知道

765
00:23:38,390 --> 00:23:40,089
期待未来采矿业务的发展

766
00:23:40,089 --> 00:23:40,739
没错

767
00:23:40,739 --> 00:23:41,298
好的

768
00:23:41,298 --> 00:23:42,259
接下来讨论的主题

769
00:23:42,259 --> 00:23:45,659
第二支即将大幅上涨的股票

770
00:23:45,659 --> 00:23:46,259
他们将讨论

771
00:23:46,259 --> 00:23:47,699
是否已准备好再次启动

772
00:23:47,699 --> 00:23:48,269
好的

773
00:23:48,269 --> 00:23:52,390
这两支中的第一支：Celsius Holdings

774
00:23:52,390 --> 00:23:54,049
C e l h

775
00:23:54,049 --> 00:23:55,069
Celsius Holdings

776
00:23:55,069 --> 00:23:58,000
这家公司正在展现早期强劲势头

777
00:23:58,000 --> 00:23:59,839
我目前已获利约三万美元

778
00:23:59,839 --> 00:24:01,079
而Celsius已在公开交易

779
00:24:01,079 --> 00:24:02,599
我们还有很长的路要走

780
00:24:02,599 --> 00:24:03,819
这还远远不够

781
00:24:03,819 --> 00:24:06,039
现在距离目标还差很远

782
00:24:06,039 --> 00:24:09,680
Celsius公司之前发生的事情

783
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:11,079
我多年前曾拥有的那家公司

784
00:24:11,079 --> 00:24:15,190
好的，随着更多人开始了解

785
00:24:15,190 --> 00:24:15,650
哦

786
00:24:15,650 --> 00:24:19,549
这里并不存在需要极度恐惧的因素

787
00:24:19,549 --> 00:24:20,210
他们将会

788
00:24:20,210 --> 00:24:21,289
你将会看到Celsius C

789
00:24:21,289 --> 00:24:23,529
持续积累更多动能

790
00:24:23,529 --> 00:24:23,809
好的

791
00:24:23,809 --> 00:24:26,210
关于Celsius众人担忧的问题

792
00:24:26,210 --> 00:24:27,329
这没问题

793
00:24:27,329 --> 00:24:28,619
Celsius面临的困境

794
00:24:28,619 --> 00:24:32,579
为何美国最受欢迎的能量饮料公司面临重大法律调查

795
00:24:32,579 --> 00:24:33,339
最高风险的法律调查

796
00:24:33,339 --> 00:24:34,299
最早在本月

797
00:24:34,299 --> 00:24:35,200
肯·帕克斯坦

798
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:41,450
德克萨斯州总检察长宣布将对公司营销行为展开调查

799
00:24:41,450 --> 00:24:42,170
好的

800
00:24:42,170 --> 00:24:43,970
总是会担心像

801
00:24:43,970 --> 00:24:44,509
哦

802
00:24:44,509 --> 00:24:45,089
你知道的

803
00:24:45,089 --> 00:24:46,390
他们的营销方式是什么

804
00:24:46,390 --> 00:24:48,049
他们是否针对儿童进行营销

805
00:24:48,049 --> 00:24:49,829
这些首先就需要关注

806
00:24:49,829 --> 00:24:50,769
就我个人而言

807
00:24:50,769 --> 00:24:53,289
多年来见过很多人喝赛乐斯

808
00:24:53,289 --> 00:24:54,509
从未见过孩子

809
00:24:54,509 --> 00:24:55,970
孩子喝赛乐斯

810
00:24:55,970 --> 00:24:58,000
总是像去健身房的人

811
00:24:58,000 --> 00:24:59,640
以及二十多岁的人

812
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:00,200
三十多岁

813
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:00,740
四十多岁

814
00:25:00,740 --> 00:25:02,119
我看到这些人喝赛乐斯

815
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:02,279
好的

816
00:25:02,279 --> 00:25:04,940
但他们正在调查这一点

817
00:25:04,940 --> 00:25:06,500
这很有趣

818
00:25:06,500 --> 00:25:09,539
因为该公司曾多年前拥有

819
00:25:09,539 --> 00:25:11,609
曾名为汉森天然饮料

820
00:25:11,609 --> 00:25:13,569
如今更名为怪兽

821
00:25:13,569 --> 00:25:15,699
猜猜怪兽面临

822
00:25:15,699 --> 00:25:21,888
多次高调诉讼和对其营销行为的监管调查

823
00:25:21,888 --> 00:25:28,619
旧金山市检察官指控某公司激进针对未成年人

824
00:25:28,619 --> 00:25:31,299
误导产品为膳食补充剂

825
00:25:31,299 --> 00:25:37,660
未充分警示过量咖啡因的健康风险

826
00:25:37,660 --> 00:25:38,119
没错

827
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,309
天啊

828
00:25:40,309 --> 00:25:41,349
这听起来耳熟

829
00:25:41,349 --> 00:25:43,450
赛乐斯现在正在经历的

830
00:25:45,349 --> 00:25:47,049
然后公司曾经历

831
00:25:47,049 --> 00:25:50,789
他们不得不从补充剂转型为

832
00:25:50,789 --> 00:25:52,890
营养类

833
00:25:52,890 --> 00:25:55,099
必须调整为膳食

834
00:25:55,099 --> 00:25:58,200
从膳食到营养类

835
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,329
就像传统产品那样

836
00:26:00,329 --> 00:26:02,250
我认为这对他们长期发展有利

837
00:26:02,250 --> 00:26:02,630
长期来看

838
00:26:02,630 --> 00:26:04,210
但总之他们试图

839
00:26:04,210 --> 00:26:05,299
用这来吓人

840
00:26:05,299 --> 00:26:08,440
2012年发生一起误死亡诉讼

841
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:12,579
一名14岁女孩家属起诉怪兽公司

842
00:26:12,579 --> 00:26:14,420
她因心脏骤停去世

843
00:26:14,420 --> 00:26:18,400
饮用两罐能量饮料24小时内

844
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:19,809
据称如此

845
00:26:19,809 --> 00:26:25,099
所以这听起来和赛乐斯现在遭遇的很像

846
00:26:25,099 --> 00:26:28,549
这难道不就是同样的事情再次发生吗

847
00:26:28,549 --> 00:26:29,490
看看这些文章

848
00:26:29,490 --> 00:26:33,659
二〇一三、二〇一四、二〇一三、二〇一五

849
00:26:33,659 --> 00:26:36,919
同样的情况以摄氏度通过怪物饮料已经经历过

850
00:26:36,919 --> 00:26:40,398
而且我知道因为猜猜我在那些时候是怪物饮料的投资人

851
00:26:40,398 --> 00:26:41,069
没错

852
00:26:41,069 --> 00:26:42,150
所以你知道的

853
00:26:42,150 --> 00:26:43,470
故事的寓意在这里

854
00:26:43,470 --> 00:26:47,000
随着越来越多的人开始理解

855
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,019
这其实没看起来那么可怕

856
00:26:49,019 --> 00:26:50,539
他们正在经历这一切的事实

857
00:26:50,539 --> 00:26:52,000
这不是前所未有的

858
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:53,140
之前就发生过

859
00:26:53,140 --> 00:26:54,588
就像一个

860
00:26:54,588 --> 00:26:55,469
现在一切都

861
00:26:55,469 --> 00:26:56,409
就像一个通过率

862
00:26:56,409 --> 00:26:57,848
如果你想成为能量饮料公司

863
00:26:57,848 --> 00:26:59,859
你必须经历这类事情

864
00:27:00,220 --> 00:27:01,220
你会经历它

865
00:27:01,220 --> 00:27:02,660
然后成功渡过难关

866
00:27:02,660 --> 00:27:03,680
嗯

867
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,170
你知道这就是你的事业

868
00:27:06,170 --> 00:27:06,650
你知道的

869
00:27:06,650 --> 00:27:07,950
但你必须经历这一切

870
00:27:07,950 --> 00:27:08,970
你得全部经历

871
00:27:08,970 --> 00:27:11,049
这就是事实

872
00:27:11,049 --> 00:27:12,410
所以你知道的

873
00:27:12,410 --> 00:27:15,289
当你成为像这样的大公司，在能量饮料领域

874
00:27:15,289 --> 00:27:16,369
他们会试图摧毁你

875
00:27:16,369 --> 00:27:18,349
所以你必须经历所有这些软性问题

876
00:27:18,349 --> 00:27:19,670
这就是现状

877
00:27:19,670 --> 00:27:20,289
好的

878
00:27:20,289 --> 00:27:21,670
现在我一直在谈论

879
00:27:21,670 --> 00:27:22,470
你知道的

880
00:27:22,470 --> 00:27:25,069
赛乐斯让我联想到一只股票

881
00:27:25,069 --> 00:27:26,529
你知道我要开启大幅上涨

882
00:27:26,529 --> 00:27:27,849
就像艾尔夫一样

883
00:27:27,849 --> 00:27:29,069
我只是想明确说明艾尔夫

884
00:27:29,069 --> 00:27:31,069
我认为艾尔夫的上涨还没结束

885
00:27:31,069 --> 00:27:32,869
这不是第二个人在说

886
00:27:32,869 --> 00:27:34,390
我只是想明确说明

887
00:27:34,390 --> 00:27:34,849
比如

888
00:27:34,849 --> 00:27:36,490
我认为上涨行情将持续

889
00:27:36,490 --> 00:27:38,309
我认为在年底前会突破一百美元

890
00:27:38,309 --> 00:27:39,150
今年结束前

891
00:27:39,150 --> 00:27:39,929
是的

892
00:27:39,929 --> 00:27:41,209
对于二〇二六年来说已经结束

893
00:27:41,209 --> 00:27:42,689
我认为艾尔夫会突破一百美元

894
00:27:42,689 --> 00:27:43,449
这只是个问题

895
00:27:43,449 --> 00:27:44,848
我们是涨到一百二十还是一百四十

896
00:27:44,848 --> 00:27:46,828
我认为这是关于精灵最大的问题

897
00:27:46,828 --> 00:27:47,849
你知道的

898
00:27:47,849 --> 00:27:48,769
看起来像精灵

899
00:27:48,769 --> 00:27:49,569
所有这些下跌

900
00:27:49,569 --> 00:27:52,009
任何下跌都会被迅速买回

901
00:27:52,009 --> 00:27:53,130
因此不要感到意外

902
00:27:55,210 --> 00:27:58,410
这两只股票中的第二只即将迎来大幅上涨

903
00:27:58,410 --> 00:27:59,190
就我个人而言

904
00:27:59,190 --> 00:28:01,799
这是不是sofi科技公司

905
00:28:01,799 --> 00:28:03,180
沙发即将上涨

906
00:28:03,180 --> 00:28:04,099
依我之见

907
00:28:04,099 --> 00:28:08,380
我认为随着通胀担忧消退，股价可能回升

908
00:28:08,380 --> 00:28:09,940
它们很可能消退

909
00:28:09,940 --> 00:28:12,559
通胀担忧引发

910
00:28:12,559 --> 00:28:13,720
在...周围引发恐惧

911
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:14,900
利率进一步上升

912
00:28:14,900 --> 00:28:16,279
这可能造成的损害

913
00:28:16,279 --> 00:28:16,799
呃

914
00:28:16,799 --> 00:28:17,819
Sofi的商业模式

915
00:28:17,819 --> 00:28:18,599
好的

916
00:28:18,599 --> 00:28:22,509
我相信你知道

917
00:28:22,509 --> 00:28:24,670
你们肯定看到了油价的变化

918
00:28:24,670 --> 00:28:25,279
没错

919
00:28:25,279 --> 00:28:27,960
这是通胀的主要原因

920
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:28,519
关于...

921
00:28:28,519 --> 00:28:28,640
哦

922
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:29,039
我的天啊

923
00:28:29,039 --> 00:28:30,160
汽油价格将飙升

924
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:31,549
油价将疯狂上涨

925
00:28:31,549 --> 00:28:34,470
这将导致整个经济通胀

926
00:28:34,470 --> 00:28:38,529
这将迫使美联储加息并让凯文·沃什

927
00:28:38,529 --> 00:28:38,950
你知道的

928
00:28:38,950 --> 00:28:40,029
进入加息周期

929
00:28:40,029 --> 00:28:40,849
等等

930
00:28:40,849 --> 00:28:41,309
没错

931
00:28:41,309 --> 00:28:43,630
这迄今为止非常不利

932
00:28:43,630 --> 00:28:45,269
但数据表现惊人

933
00:28:45,269 --> 00:28:47,109
但确实造成了损害

934
00:28:47,109 --> 00:28:47,750
所以i股票价格

935
00:28:47,750 --> 00:28:47,950
我的意思是

936
00:28:47,950 --> 00:28:50,049
i股票价格曾一度达到32

937
00:28:50,049 --> 00:28:51,930
然后近期在 lowes

938
00:28:51,930 --> 00:28:52,950
我认为跌至16

939
00:28:52,950 --> 00:28:55,190
没错，如果出现通胀

940
00:28:55,190 --> 00:28:57,799
担忧缓解的话

941
00:28:57,799 --> 00:29:03,170
当人们变得更加乐观时

942
00:29:03,170 --> 00:29:07,190
美联储可能降息，而

943
00:29:08,180 --> 00:29:09,500
所以i将表现良好

944
00:29:09,500 --> 00:29:10,940
这将推动行情上涨

945
00:29:10,940 --> 00:29:12,059
所以如果我接下来谈论的内容

946
00:29:12,059 --> 00:29:13,500
你会看到股票前面的走势

947
00:29:13,500 --> 00:29:15,059
然后你会看到从中产生的动量

948
00:29:15,059 --> 00:29:16,460
这就是第二只股票

949
00:29:16,460 --> 00:29:19,079
我认为这里能看到真正的动量

950
00:29:19,079 --> 00:29:22,839
好的，可能会反弹并记住这三只股票

951
00:29:22,839 --> 00:29:24,000
我刚才提到的soi

952
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:25,140
健康 Celsius

953
00:29:25,140 --> 00:29:26,559
这些都是我的长期持仓

954
00:29:26,559 --> 00:29:28,380
希望长期持有这些股票

955
00:29:28,380 --> 00:29:29,359
未来的发展

956
00:29:29,359 --> 00:29:29,960
这些就是股票

957
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:31,420
我也持有多年了

958
00:29:31,420 --> 00:29:34,859
我认为它们都有很好的长期前景

959
00:29:34,859 --> 00:29:36,109
所以你知道的

960
00:29:36,109 --> 00:29:37,789
短期发生什么就是什么

961
00:29:37,789 --> 00:29:39,930
但我认为这些股票可能会有动量

962
00:29:39,930 --> 00:29:40,349
好的

963
00:29:40,349 --> 00:29:43,309
这里讨论的是Meta即将复苏

964
00:29:43,309 --> 00:29:43,940
Meta

965
00:29:43,940 --> 00:29:44,420
你知道的

966
00:29:44,420 --> 00:29:45,680
世界上最伟大的公司之一

967
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:46,259
但啊

968
00:29:46,259 --> 00:29:47,700
股价一直低迷

969
00:29:47,700 --> 00:29:48,259
不是吗

970
00:29:48,259 --> 00:29:48,579
我意思是

971
00:29:48,579 --> 00:29:52,109
去年第四季度股价曾超七百

972
00:29:52,109 --> 00:29:54,150
而今天股价仅六百多

973
00:29:54,150 --> 00:29:56,390
没错，Meta

974
00:29:56,390 --> 00:29:57,569
现在的情况是

975
00:29:57,569 --> 00:29:57,890
对的

976
00:29:57,890 --> 00:29:59,309
今天很令人兴奋

977
00:29:59,309 --> 00:30:04,138
Meta进军AI图像模型领域以吸引广告商和订阅用户

978
00:30:04,138 --> 00:30:04,898
嗯

979
00:30:05,898 --> 00:30:08,538
Meta此前宣布使用第三方

980
00:30:08,538 --> 00:30:13,420
AI模型如Midjourney和Black Force Labs来驱动图像和视频生成功能

981
00:30:13,420 --> 00:30:15,640
以及Meta的AI应用和网站

982
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:16,970
现在大家注意

983
00:30:16,970 --> 00:30:18,750
这对所有合作伙伴都是风险

984
00:30:18,750 --> 00:30:23,250
现在AI时代许多公司都在互相合作

985
00:30:23,250 --> 00:30:24,069
大家都在合作

986
00:30:24,069 --> 00:30:25,509
所有公司都在与这些平台合作

987
00:30:25,509 --> 00:30:26,809
存在风险

988
00:30:26,809 --> 00:30:30,039
这些公司最终可能分散资源

989
00:30:30,039 --> 00:30:30,900
然后你会发现

990
00:30:30,900 --> 00:30:31,500
你就会陷入困境

991
00:30:31,500 --> 00:30:31,799
好的

992
00:30:31,799 --> 00:30:34,539
所以我想提醒大家注意

993
00:30:34,539 --> 00:30:35,839
是合作伙伴活动

994
00:30:35,839 --> 00:30:36,579
好的

995
00:30:36,579 --> 00:30:37,569
现在

996
00:30:37,569 --> 00:30:38,490
事情是这样的

997
00:30:38,490 --> 00:30:38,970
好的

998
00:30:38,970 --> 00:30:40,390
Meta本应

999
00:30:40,390 --> 00:30:44,579
如果你使用这个元图像生成产品

1000
00:30:44,579 --> 00:30:45,660
最终会

1001
00:30:45,660 --> 00:30:46,319
你知道的

1002
00:30:46,319 --> 00:30:48,519
可能会订阅月费

1003
00:30:48,519 --> 00:30:50,019
没错，这很酷

1004
00:30:50,019 --> 00:30:51,740
但Matt真正想做的是

1005
00:30:51,740 --> 00:30:56,859
这款缪斯图像为创意过程带来原生推理能力以调整元素

1006
00:30:56,859 --> 00:31:01,079
切换风格并基于广告主创意生成变体

1007
00:31:01,079 --> 00:31:09,349
从而在少量迭代中生成高质量品牌广告变体

1008
00:31:09,349 --> 00:31:10,470
在未来几周

1009
00:31:10,470 --> 00:31:15,500
广告主和代理机构将看到由新闻图像驱动的图像变体

1010
00:31:15,500 --> 00:31:16,960
这就是核心所在对吧

1011
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:18,559
这才是真正的关键

1012
00:31:18,559 --> 00:31:20,839
他们希望广告主获得最大效益

1013
00:31:20,839 --> 00:31:24,250
问题在于Meta必须让企业获益

1014
00:31:24,250 --> 00:31:25,670
如果你作为企业成功

1015
00:31:25,670 --> 00:31:26,849
并且赚到更多钱

1016
00:31:26,849 --> 00:31:28,769
你会在Meta上投入更多资金

1017
00:31:28,769 --> 00:31:29,869
这很简单

1018
00:31:29,869 --> 00:31:35,049
比如Medic能让你广告投入获得高ROI

1019
00:31:35,049 --> 00:31:36,289
你会继续选择他们

1020
00:31:36,289 --> 00:31:37,210
为什么不用呢

1021
00:31:37,210 --> 00:31:41,579
比如每投入100美元

1022
00:31:41,579 --> 00:31:43,319
用于广告

1023
00:31:43,319 --> 00:31:44,960
作为企业

1024
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:46,630
能赚回200美元

1025
00:31:46,630 --> 00:31:48,069
你会持续参与这个游戏

1026
00:31:48,069 --> 00:31:48,910
持续参与这个游戏

1027
00:31:48,910 --> 00:31:51,240
Meta能提供更高ROI

1028
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:54,339
你会投入数百万广告费

1029
00:31:54,339 --> 00:31:55,700
即使需要数千万

1030
00:31:55,700 --> 00:31:56,359
上亿资金

1031
00:31:56,359 --> 00:31:58,869
只要持续获得高ROI

1032
00:31:58,869 --> 00:32:00,150
这个循环就停不下来

1033
00:32:00,150 --> 00:32:01,509
你会继续投入

1034
00:32:01,509 --> 00:32:01,890
没错

1035
00:32:01,890 --> 00:32:02,309
不

1036
00:32:02,309 --> 00:32:06,210
如果能根据用户点击概率调整图像

1037
00:32:06,210 --> 00:32:07,109
他们一定会这么做

1038
00:32:07,109 --> 00:32:11,440
所以Meta能生成100种不同图像并全部测试

1039
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:16,579
其中某个对特定用户画像效果最佳

1040
00:32:16,579 --> 00:32:17,980
他们会持续优化

1041
00:32:17,980 --> 00:32:19,680
这意味着他们能获得更高

1042
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,460
客户将获得更高ROI

1043
00:32:22,460 --> 00:32:23,500
客户

1044
00:32:23,500 --> 00:32:25,279
从而继续在Meta投入更多

1045
00:32:25,279 --> 00:32:27,358
这就是它真正核心所在

1046
00:32:27,358 --> 00:32:29,118
这并非真正关于销售订阅计划

1047
00:32:29,118 --> 00:32:29,999
更重要的是

1048
00:32:29,999 --> 00:32:32,680
我们需要广告商获得最大收益

1049
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:33,759
这样他们能赚更多钱

1050
00:32:33,759 --> 00:32:34,079
因此

1051
00:32:34,079 --> 00:32:37,690
他们现在可以更多地投入我们这里

1052
00:32:37,690 --> 00:32:39,069
当有这种令人兴奋的事情发生时

1053
00:32:39,069 --> 00:32:42,480
但随后出现像美国银行警告科技巨头

1054
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:43,000
Meta

1055
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:43,220
谷歌

1056
00:32:43,220 --> 00:32:43,839
麦当劳

1057
00:32:43,839 --> 00:32:44,220
亚马逊

1058
00:32:44,220 --> 00:32:45,559
AI支出引发市场震荡

1059
00:32:45,559 --> 00:32:48,730
听着它已经影响到你了

1060
00:32:48,730 --> 00:32:50,049
就像你刚醒来

1061
00:32:50,049 --> 00:32:53,930
市场已经受到波及，这是我们持续面临的问题

1062
00:32:53,930 --> 00:32:55,529
作为问题在于

1063
00:32:55,529 --> 00:32:56,369
支出情况是

1064
00:32:56,369 --> 00:32:58,609
这些公司表现惊人

1065
00:32:58,609 --> 00:33:00,650
现在还有这类事件

1066
00:33:00,650 --> 00:33:01,309
好的

1067
00:33:01,309 --> 00:33:03,390
四州寻求赔偿

1068
00:33:08,019 --> 00:33:08,779
你知道的

1069
00:33:08,779 --> 00:33:11,670
针对儿童社交媒体成瘾的诉讼

1070
00:33:11,670 --> 00:33:12,730
他们要求赔偿

1071
00:33:14,910 --> 00:33:15,910
天啊

1072
00:33:15,910 --> 00:33:17,069
州财政面临问题

1073
00:33:17,069 --> 00:33:18,009
或者这里有什么

1074
00:33:18,009 --> 00:33:18,619
好的

1075
00:33:18,619 --> 00:33:22,599
这就是Meta持续面临的问题

1076
00:33:22,599 --> 00:33:23,839
支出成为问题

1077
00:33:23,839 --> 00:33:24,940
还有这类事情

1078
00:33:24,940 --> 00:33:25,359
比如

1079
00:33:25,359 --> 00:33:26,388
你知道的

1080
00:33:26,388 --> 00:33:27,909
这就是围绕公司的阴云

1081
00:33:27,909 --> 00:33:28,528
以Meta为例

1082
00:33:28,528 --> 00:33:29,848
目前

1083
00:33:29,848 --> 00:33:31,709
Meta面临的问题是

1084
00:33:31,709 --> 00:33:33,759
好的，而且

1085
00:33:35,180 --> 00:33:38,140
这就是股价陷入困境的原因

1086
00:33:38,140 --> 00:33:41,099
它可能长期区间震荡

1087
00:33:41,099 --> 00:33:41,789
好的

1088
00:33:41,789 --> 00:33:43,730
我们将迎来另一个疯狂的市值数字

1089
00:33:43,730 --> 00:33:45,220
预计在2027年

1090
00:33:45,220 --> 00:33:46,900
不确定是否达到1850亿

1091
00:33:46,900 --> 00:33:48,099
五亿或两百亿

1092
00:33:48,099 --> 00:33:49,839
这只会是另一个荒谬数字

1093
00:33:49,839 --> 00:33:50,099
对

1094
00:33:50,099 --> 00:33:51,440
疯狂到不行

1095
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:52,819
没错啊

1096
00:33:52,819 --> 00:33:55,200
我们的增长就像票房大片

1097
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:55,920
正在发生中

1098
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:56,359
简直疯狂

1099
00:33:56,359 --> 00:33:57,279
他们最新季度增长了三

1100
00:33:57,279 --> 00:34:00,630
今年营收增长三 percent 将会是

1101
00:34:00,630 --> 00:34:01,089
你知道的

1102
00:34:01,089 --> 00:34:02,470
几乎每个季度都应该在

1103
00:34:02,470 --> 00:34:03,400
比如三十几

1104
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:04,440
问题是

1105
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:07,259
我们得经历二十几和三十几的增速

1106
00:34:07,259 --> 00:34:08,500
这竞争太残酷了

1107
00:34:08,500 --> 00:34:09,170
好的

1108
00:34:09,170 --> 00:34:10,909
我认为有很大概率

1109
00:34:10,909 --> 00:34:13,469
我们的增速可能在2027年进入个位数

1110
00:34:13,469 --> 00:34:14,318
好的

1111
00:34:14,318 --> 00:34:15,938
这确实是个问题

1112
00:34:15,938 --> 00:34:19,340
如果再加上疯狂的cap x数字

1113
00:34:19,340 --> 00:34:20,820
股价就要崩盘了

1114
00:34:20,820 --> 00:34:22,940
因为公司现在增速在三十几

1115
00:34:22,940 --> 00:34:24,380
但我们股价却无法上涨

1116
00:34:24,380 --> 00:34:26,989
如果明年增速再降个位数

1117
00:34:26,989 --> 00:34:28,668
再加上疯狂的cap x数字

1118
00:34:28,668 --> 00:34:29,668
股价肯定要崩盘

1119
00:34:29,668 --> 00:34:30,829
你会看到它从

1120
00:34:30,829 --> 00:34:31,889
我不知道六百五十

1121
00:34:31,889 --> 00:34:34,840
假设跌到四百三十五三

1122
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:36,420
七十五四五十

1123
00:34:36,420 --> 00:34:37,519
大概这样对吧

1124
00:34:37,519 --> 00:34:39,179
然后股价暴跌

1125
00:34:39,179 --> 00:34:43,199
所以故事的寓意是

1126
00:34:43,199 --> 00:34:44,139
当meta股价

1127
00:34:44,139 --> 00:34:46,179
如果不是这些疯狂的capex数字

1128
00:34:46,179 --> 00:34:47,880
现在早就一千美元了

1129
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:49,860
或者接近一千美元

1130
00:34:49,860 --> 00:34:51,719
但因为cap x数字太离谱

1131
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:53,639
这会拖累股价很久

1132
00:34:53,639 --> 00:34:55,559
没人确定投资回报

1133
00:34:55,559 --> 00:34:56,318
他们对此反应激烈

1134
00:34:56,318 --> 00:34:59,018
如果两年投入一百四十五亿美元capex

1135
00:34:59,018 --> 00:35:01,619
我们甚至不确定能否收回百亿

1136
00:35:01,619 --> 00:35:03,239
甚至不确定能否收回十亿

1137
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:04,380
说实话

1138
00:35:04,380 --> 00:35:06,920
没错现在不能信任扎克伯格

1139
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:11,230
直到cap x降温并推动股价可持续上涨

1140
00:35:11,230 --> 00:35:12,150
在我看来

1141
00:35:12,150 --> 00:35:15,269
股价似乎仍在

1142
00:35:15,269 --> 00:35:18,119
像五五十七五十的区间震荡

1143
00:35:18,119 --> 00:35:20,559
直到我们到达临界点

1144
00:35:20,559 --> 00:35:25,179
这个临界点要么是扎克伯格在cap x冷静下来

1145
00:35:25,179 --> 00:35:28,840
要么明年增长放缓

1146
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:29,820
然后我们迎来另一个cap x

1147
00:35:29,820 --> 00:35:30,940
接着就会引发股市崩盘

1148
00:35:30,940 --> 00:35:31,699
这两种情况之一

1149
00:35:31,699 --> 00:35:33,519
我们将面临股价的临界点

1150
00:35:33,519 --> 00:35:33,900
不

1151
00:35:33,900 --> 00:35:35,219
如果你是长期持有meta的投资者

1152
00:35:35,219 --> 00:35:38,219
并且相信meta长期价值可达千美元

1153
00:35:38,219 --> 00:35:39,420
甚至两千元的股票

1154
00:35:39,420 --> 00:35:43,110
我认为它将突破两千元价位

1155
00:35:43,110 --> 00:35:45,650
长期来看长期来看

1156
00:35:45,650 --> 00:35:47,050
但短期内不会

1157
00:35:47,050 --> 00:35:48,010
但从长期看

1158
00:35:48,010 --> 00:35:49,260
我们将拥有两千元价位的股票

1159
00:35:49,260 --> 00:35:51,980
你知道我估计一千五百到一千美元

1160
00:35:51,980 --> 00:35:54,019
在接下来五年内实现相当容易

1161
00:35:54,019 --> 00:35:55,840
但我认为长期会达到两千元

1162
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:59,260
这时候就是绝佳的买入时机

1163
00:35:59,260 --> 00:36:03,800
但不要过度乐观期待

1164
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,090
你知道这就是问题所在

1165
00:36:06,090 --> 00:36:06,789
如果你只是认为

1166
00:36:06,789 --> 00:36:07,070
哦

1167
00:36:07,070 --> 00:36:07,949
我们即将上涨

1168
00:36:07,949 --> 00:36:08,690
我们状态良好

1169
00:36:08,690 --> 00:36:09,659
我们状态良好

1170
00:36:09,659 --> 00:36:10,380
接下来

1171
00:36:10,380 --> 00:36:12,000
股价可能暴跌四成

1172
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:13,119
就在你面前

1173
00:36:13,119 --> 00:36:14,519
请记住这一点

1174
00:36:14,519 --> 00:36:17,690
不要对meta等股票抱有过高期待

1175
00:36:17,690 --> 00:36:18,329
我感觉安心

1176
00:36:18,329 --> 00:36:22,480
对meta短期走势抱期待不是明智之举

1177
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:25,900
我认为股价仍将在550-750区间震荡

1178
00:36:25,900 --> 00:36:26,519
所以

1179
00:36:26,519 --> 00:36:27,679
但如果不是这样

1180
00:36:27,679 --> 00:36:29,050
如果涨到一千

1181
00:36:29,050 --> 00:36:29,809
我很开心

1182
00:36:29,809 --> 00:36:30,610
但我只是觉得

1183
00:36:30,610 --> 00:36:32,090
我不信任它

1184
00:36:32,090 --> 00:36:32,568
好吧

1185
00:36:32,568 --> 00:36:32,929
好的

1186
00:36:32,929 --> 00:36:33,349
女士们先生们

1187
00:36:33,349 --> 00:36:34,489
希望你们喜欢今天的视频

1188
00:36:34,489 --> 00:36:35,929
感谢你们一如既往的支持

1189
00:36:35,929 --> 00:36:36,409
呃

1190
00:36:36,409 --> 00:36:37,728
私人群目前关闭

1191
00:36:37,728 --> 00:36:39,489
但根据置顶评论

1192
00:36:39,489 --> 00:36:41,079
我会这样说明

1193
00:36:41,079 --> 00:36:42,960
你可以加入候补名单

1194
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:44,599
这将有助于

1195
00:36:44,599 --> 00:36:46,730
每当我们将私人小组重新开放时

1196
00:36:46,730 --> 00:36:48,690
因为我们将通过候补名单进行筛选

1197
00:36:48,690 --> 00:36:51,650
现在申请并加入候补名单的人

1198
00:36:51,650 --> 00:36:54,730
你将成为首批被允许加入我们私人小组的人

1199
00:36:54,730 --> 00:36:56,690
假设符合我们的需求

1200
00:36:56,690 --> 00:36:59,769
但当你我们重新开放时，你将是首批加入的人

1201
00:36:59,769 --> 00:37:02,309
今天我会将其作为置顶评论发布

1202
00:37:02,309 --> 00:37:04,269
纽约的女士们先生们

1203
00:37:04,269 --> 00:37:04,949
衷心祝福

1204
00:37:04,949 --> 00:37:05,269
感谢

1205
00:37:05,269 --> 00:37:06,920
祝你度过美好一天

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